Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema

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Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema
Your National Weather Service
Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation:
Ready, Responsive, Resilient

    Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
    Director, National Weather Service
    NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services

    April 6, 2016 – National Emergency Management Association – Alexandria, VA
Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema
Increase in Extreme Events
                               “Average” Year and Trends in the U.S.

           650 Fatalities            26,000 Severe               6 Atlantic Basin         1,300 Tornadoes   5,000 Floods
          $15B in Losses             Thunderstorms                  Hurricanes

                                                                                          Increasing Vulnerability
                                                                                     •   Increasing population
                                                                                     •   More infrastructure at risk
                                                                                     •   Signs of sea level rise

                                                                                     •   Improved forecasts of extreme
                                                                                         events 4-8 days in advance
                                                                                     •   Connecting forecasts to
                                                                                         decision-makers is basis for
                                                                                         building a Weather-Ready
Event Type:      Geophysical    Hydrological    Meteorological      Climatological
                                                                                         Nation
              NOAA’s National Weather Service                                                                              2
Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema
NWS Strategic Outcome:
                       A Weather-Ready Nation
 Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the
   face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water & climate events

   “Ready, Responsive, Resilient”
 REQUIRES NWS TO:
    – Fully integrate our field structure to produce:
      • Better forecasts and warnings
      • Consistent products and services
      • Actionable environmental intelligence
 Address the “last mile” that connects forecast to critical national, state and location
   decisions
    – Provide Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS)
    – Deliver through multiple and reliable dissemination pathways
    – Work with partners to gain needed response; includes embedding NWS in Emergency
        Operations Centers and incorporating Social Sciences

Involves entire U.S. Weather, Water and Climate Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER
        to achieve far-reaching national preparedness for weather events
     NOAA’s National Weather Service                                                        3
Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema
The Intrinsic Value of Forecasts

“First, it should be understood that forecasts possess no
intrinsic value. They acquire value through their ability to
influence the decisions made by users of the forecasts.”

          “What is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the
         Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting”
                   ‒ by Allan H. Murphy; Weather and Forecasting (June 1993)

  NOAA’s National Weather Service                                              4
Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema
IDSS: Going Beyond the Forecast
                                                Connecting those
 Generating forecasts
    and warnings
                                         forecasts/warnings with partner   = IDSS
                                             decision-making process
                                     Practice, practice,
                                                                            Impact-based
                                     practice!                              Decision
                                                                            Support
                                                                            Services
                                                                               Trust
                                                           Embed
The best
hydrometeorological          Develop
forecasting in the           relationships /
world                        know partner
                             needs

                     “Ready, Responsive, Resilient”
   NOAA’s National Weather Service                                                         5
Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema
Extraordinary Success in
                   Predicting Extreme Events
2015 Holiday Storm & January 2016 Flooding
  • 6-8 day lead time for heavy rain, snow, severe weather
  • IDSS provided from national to local level

January 2016 East Coast Blizzard & Coastal Storm
  • 8 day lead time drove IDSS at the state and local level

March 2016 Southern Floods
  • 7 day lead time highlighting the flood potential
  • IDSS provided from national to local level

                                                6

  NOAA’s National Weather Service                             6
Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
    Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
                                        Surface Charts
Day 7                                 Day 5              Day 3

Day 2                                 Day 1              Analysis

    NOAA’s National Weather Service                                 7
Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
  Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
      Severe Weather Outlooks for Saturday, Dec. 26th
                    Day 4 Outlook       Day 3 Outlook

                  Day 2 Outlook

  NOAA’s National Weather Service                       8
Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
  Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
        Severe Weather Outlooks for Sunday, Dec. 27th
                    Day 4 Outlook        Day 3 Outlook

                  Day 2 Outlook

  NOAA’s National Weather Service                        9
Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
  Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
    Probability of Snow/Sleet Liquid Equivalent > 0.25”
                   for Saturday, Dec. 26th
                  Day 7             Day 6       Day 5

                 Day 4

                                              Verification Shaded in
                                                        Blue

  NOAA’s National Weather Service                                  10
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
  Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
    Probability of Snow/Sleet Liquid Equivalent > 0.25”
                    for Sunday, Dec. 27th

  NOAA’s National Weather Service                         11
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
    Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
                                 Precipitation Forecasts
Day 6                                Day 5             Day 3

Day 2                                Day 1             Observed

   NOAA’s National Weather Service                                12
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding
              Past Crest
                                                       • Coordination with federal/state/local
                                                         partners commenced Dec. 21-22
                                                       • Specific collaborative activities focus
                                                         on threats related to severe weather,
       Image fills this entire area                      blizzard, and flooding conditions
                                                       • Pre-positioning of assets and rapid
    January 13-14
      (OR originates   at the upper                      response team commenced over
         left corner of the area                         Christmas holiday
      outlined and is sized to the                     • Long-term support provided for
   January 14-15
       full width or height of this                      flooding along the Mississippi River
              bounding box.)
                                                          States of Emergency Declared
January 16-17                                              TX, NM, MO, OK, IL, MS, LA
                            January 18

                                       January 19-20

     NOAA’s National Weather Service                                                           13
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
                             The Spectrum of IDSS

                                       “I want to first fully thank the dedicated professionals
                                       here at the National Weather Service for providing us
                                       with the most updated forecast briefing this afternoon
                                       and for their continued hard work as part of the effort
                                       to protect lives and property. Folks here are incredibly
                                       professional. We rely on them, and they don't let us
                                       down. We tremendously appreciate, especially over
Missouri Governor Jay Nixon
                                       the holidays, how they're always there and always
                                       helpful, doing the best they can to help law
                                       enforcement and others.”
     NOAA’s National Weather Service                                                          14
January 2016 Blizzard & Coastal Storm:
     Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance

   Experimental                       Probability Forecast for   Probability Forecast for
Probability Forecast                     48-hour Snowfall           48-hour Snowfall
4 days prior to event                  3 days prior to event      2 days prior to event

    NOAA’s National Weather Service                                                         15
January 2016 Blizzard & Coastal Storm

                                                                      NEW
                                                     LOCATION
                                                                     RECORD
                                                   Allentown, PA      31.9"
                                                   Baltimore, MD      29.2"
                                                   Harrisburg, PA     30.2"
                                                   JFK Airport, NY    30.5"
                                                   LaGaurdia, NY      27.9"

                                                                Wildwood, NJ

 Category 4 Winter Storm on NESIS Scale
A Historic Storm – 4th most impactful since 1900

    NOAA’s National Weather Service                                           16
January 2016 Blizzard & Coastal Storm:
                       Connecting All of the Pieces
Jan 15 - 18               Jan 19            Jan 20              Jan 21                  Jan 22

Medium Range          Confidence          Partner         Fed./state/local govts  Snow begins in the
products begin        increasing          Coordination/   make critical decisions Mid-Atlantic
identifying           Partner             Briefings       before the snow begins Snow forecast
snowstorm                                                                         adjusted to
                      Coordination/       Media
threat for the                                                                    include NYC in
                      Briefings           interviews
end of next                                                                       Blizzard Warning
week                                      Blizzard
                                          Watches
NWS offices                               Issued
begin briefing                                            Blizzard Warnings
partners on     Media                                     Issued                   Schools/Govt Close
potential storm interviews                                1 pm: Press Briefing     Flights Canceled
                                                                                   Roads Closed

        NOAA’s National Weather Service                                                                 17
January 2016 Blizzard:
                    Connecting All of the Pieces

                    Long Island Expressway
        2013 Snowstorm                  2016 Snowstorm

             The Past                With Decision Support

NOAA’s National Weather Service                              18
2016 Major Milestones
• Demonstrate the “National Blend of Models” for evaluation
• Continue to increase supercomputing capacity
• Major Model Implementations:
   – Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
   – Global Forecast System (GFS)
   – Hurricane Weather Research & Forecast (HWFR)
   – High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) v.2
• Operational Release of Storm Surge Inundation Graphic
• Implement Experimental NWC Centralized Water Forecast Modeling System v1.0
• Implement One NWS dissemination network to support consistent products and
  services
• IDSS professional development series and policy

  Evolving Your NWS to Build a Weather-Ready Nation
     NOAA’s National Weather Service                                       19
Computer Status/Model Implementation
                             Supported through HFIP and Sandy Supplemental

                                        Reflectivity Observations   HRRR 15 UTC 29 June 2012
TeraFLOP per operational system

                                                                                               New Global &
                                                                                               Hurricane
                                                                                               models will be
                                                                                               implemented
                                                                                               by June 2016

                                  NOAA’s National Weather Service                                           20
NWS Operations & Workforce Analysis (OWA)
            Phase 1 Summary
  OWA External                    OWA Operating Model Workstream will focus on
  Survey sent to                  Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS):
      EMs                         NWS employees embrace IDSS, and EMs use               “I trust my
 (Summer 2015)
                                  IDSS with high customer satisfaction                  partners at
                                                                                        NWS and I
   Analysis of surveys            However, there are a number of definitions of IDSS,   know them –
    and interviews                including in terms of what IDSS products are          the tone of their
                                                                                        voice, the way
       (Fall 2015)                provided, how IDSS is delivered, when IDSS is         they report out
                                  delivered and to whom IDSS is being delivered         to us. And they
                                                                                        know me.”
      OWA identified the need for service
          consistency and role clarity         “We have to know
       for both internal operations and        what the NWS can
                                               do for us, but we
                 external IDSS
                                               also have to know
                 (Winter 2015)                 what they can’t
                                               do, or we’ll ask
With respect to FIFS –                         them to do
Current allocations of resources               everything, and,
                                               God help them,
do not match current or emerging               they’ll try and give
needs of core partners.                        it to us”

     NOAA’s National Weather Service                                                                        22
Operations & Workforce Analysis Timeline
                                                                                                              FY18-
          Where we are today                                                                                   23+
                                                                                  FY17
                                                  FY16
                                                                                                        ▪   Implement OWA
                                                                                                            recommendations
                   FY15                                                   ▪    Test and evaluate OWA
                                        ▪   Complete OWA with                  recommendations,
                                            recommendations for fully          including the Fully
          ▪    OWA diagnostic on            integrated field and               Integrated Field
               baseline and gaps to         collaborative forecast             Structure
Overall

               support WRN across           process                           (FIFS)
               org structure,
               workforce, and
                                        ▪   Establish priority partners
                                            through “deep
               operating model
                                            relationships”
          ▪    Consider IDSS            ▪   Rollout IDSS policy           ▪   Test and evaluate FIFS    ▪   Complete FIFS
               models                                                         organizational changes    ▪
                                        ▪   Evaluate and enhance                                            Ensure NBM in all
          ▪    Conduct OHI survey           forecasting process           ▪   Refine IDSS approach          regions
          ▪                                                               ▪                             ▪
Details

               Identify actionable      ▪   Give guidance on Fully            Continue National Blend       Adjust roles and skills
               ideas                        Integrated Field Structure        of Models                 ▪   Assess and support
                                            (FIFS) design                 ▪   Reassess OHI                  actionable ideas
                                        ▪   Drive actionable ideas        ▪
                                                                      Launch new actionable
                                                                      ideas
                                     Engage and communicate with internal and external stakeholders

              NOAA’s National Weather Service                                                                                         23
Summary
• NWS is poised to make great strides in improving prediction capabilities
   – 2.8 PF computers now installed. Meteorological “Big Data” and analytics just got bigger
   – New global to fine scale numerical models to be implemented by the hurricane season
   – Upcoming major advances in global observations/satellites (JPSS)
• Tremendous progress in predicting extreme events
• Connecting forecasters to decision makers crucial to Building a Weather-Ready
  Nation
• From the National Centers to the local forecast offices – the NWS provides the
  Impact-Based Decision Support Services required to prepare, respond, and ensure
  resilience for the “last mile” needed to ensure lives are saved
• In Building a Weather-Ready Nation, the men and women of the NWS are clearly
  leading the world in addressing the increasing vulnerabilities to extreme events
  and becoming Second to None

    NOAA’s National Weather Service                                                        24
El Niño is weakening
                                                     but the atmospheric
                                                     effect will continue

Potential for
drought
improvement

                March 30, 2015                       March 30, 2016

                Area Covered by Snow: 8.6%           Area Covered by Snow: 49.4%
                Avg. Snow Water Equivalent: 0.6 in   Avg. Snow Water Equivalent: 6.5 in
THANK YOU!

NOAA’s National Weather Service           26
April-May-June
Outlook

Above/Below categories are
relative to "normal"

NOAA/NWS
Climate
Prediction
Center
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