FIFA World Cup 2018 Predictions - Fidante Partners

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FIFA World Cup 2018 Predictions - Fidante Partners
FIFA World Cup 2018
Predictions
Joachim Klement, CFA                             24 April 2018

•   Every four years, the world’s best football teams meet at the FIFA World Cup to determine
    who is best. And every four years economists create silly statistical models to predict
    which team is going to win the championship.
•   We are no exception to this rule. This is our not so serious prediction for the upcoming
    World Cup. Enjoy.
FIFA World Cup 2018 Predictions - Fidante Partners
PAGE 2

         Introduction
         On 14 June 2018 the 21st FIFA World              The remainder of this paper is organised as
         Cup will open in Russia. 64 matches will         follows. In the next section I will clarify some
         be played until on 15 July 2018 the world        common misunderstandings about football
         champion of football is crowned at the final     and explain the model, its input factors and
         in Moscow. Every four years 32 teams from        its methodology. Then, I will briefly tackle
         around the world compete against each other      the group stage of the World Cup in order
         to figure out who is the best nation in what     to determine which teams will make it into
         I can only describe as “the best sport in the    the knock-out stage. The final section then
         world and a modern day religion”. And every      simulate the knock-out stage in order to
         four years, economists from every major          determine the likely winner of the World Cup.
         bank in the world will try to predict the
         winner of the World Cup in advance using
         more or less ridiculous econometric models
         in an attempt to seem more “fun” than
         economists usually are.                            If you expect concrete investment advice,
                                                            stop reading now.

                                                          Before we get into the details of the model,
          Tongue firmly in cheek, I will explain          however, let me warn all the readers of this
           which team will win this year’s World Cup.     report. If you expect concrete investment
                                                          advice, stop reading now. Some economists
                                                          try desperately to make these reports about
                                                          investments by choosing German automotive
                                                          stocks to represent Germany and the like.
         Being the “fun” economist that I am, I will
                                                          But let’s face it. Trying to predict a football
         join this chorus of World Cup predictions.
                                                          tournament with the help of an econometric
         Tongue firmly in cheek I will explain which
                                                          model is outrageous in itself already. No
         team will win this year’s World Cup and why
                                                          need to make it even more outrageous than
         you can safely ignore the dozens of reports
                                                          that.
         from other banks on the subject.
         To address the last point first: In this
         report I will use an updated version of the
         econometric model I used four years ago to
         predict Germany as world champion 2014
         (including a victory of Germany in the semi-
         finals against Brazil). This model has a 100%
         success record which is clearly higher than
         any model other economists use. Also, the
         model is developed and run by a German
         which is why in our 2014 predictions the
         seasoned judgement of the modeller was
         used to change the predicted outcome of the
         semi-final between Germany and Brazil from
         a victory for Brazil to a victory for Germany.
         It is this genetically inherited knowledge
         about football that makes the combination of
         economist and model superior to any model
         developed by an English or an American
         economist.
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The model
The model I use is a regression-based                     players. This means that countries
model that tries to predict the percentage                that are too poor have a hard time
of games won by each country in past World                building and maintaining the necessary
Cup appearances. For example, Brazil has                  training and medical infrastructure to be
historically been the most successful team                successful on the big stage. At the same
at previous World Cups and won on average                 time, the relationship between a nation’s
67% of all the matches it participated in. At             wealth (as measured by GDP/capita)
the other end of the spectrum are World Cup               and its success in football is non-linear.
newcomers, Panama and Iceland, that have                  Very wealthy nations like Switzerland
never qualified for a World Cup before. These             or Luxembourg may have the money to
two teams, together with Egypt, have never                build the necessary infrastructure but
won a match at a World Cup so far and thus                cannot recruit enough youngsters for
have a winning percentage of zero.                        their youth teams. Effectively, football
                                                          remains a sport played by working class
In order to avoid confusion, let me be clear
                                                          and middle class people. If a nation
that the term “football” in this report refers
                                                          is too wealthy, the youngsters rather
to the sport called “football” in England and
                                                          participate in more expensive hobbies or
across the British Isles. It is a game played
                                                          simply play video games instead of going
by 11 men or women in each team where
                                                          outside to play football on the street.
the ball is kicked by foot (hence the name)
and only the goalkeeper is allowed to use             •   Average temperature: Football is an
his or her hands under certain restrictions               outdoor sport. It is difficult to play
that I won’t go into here. The game lasts                 football year-round if the climate in a
90 minutes and is split into two halves                   country is too cold or too hot. It turns
(plus some injury time in each half at the                out that a temperate climate with an
discretion of the referees but I can’t get into           average annual temperature of 14C is
this either). A goal counts as one point (not             optimal.
three, six, seven or whatever funny number
                                                      •   Population: Of course, if a country has
you happen to make up) and it is perfectly
                                                          more citizens, the talent pool is bigger.
normal for a game to end 0-0.
                                                          Thus the share of a countries population
The game that Americans call “football” has               as percentage of world population is
nothing to do with football whatsoever and is             another determinant of football success.
effectively rugby for Nancies. And what our
                                                      •   Being the host: Time and again the
Australian friends and colleagues call “footie”
                                                          home field advantage proves crucial
is also not football but rather a glorified pub
                                                          in determining success at a World Cup.
brawl.1
                                                          England won its only World Cup, 1966 at
In order to predict the winning percentage of             home. In 1958 host Sweden celebrated
World Cup games for every team I use the                  its biggest World Cup success ever when
following macroeconomic variables:                        it only lost in the final to Brazil with the
                                                          immortal Pelé. And South Korea’s biggest
•   GDP/capita: While football can be played
                                                          World Cup success was the semi-final at
    anywhere, a successful national team
                                                          the 2002 home tournament. Clearly, the
    needs appropriate infrastructure and a
                                                          home team has a distinct advantage over
    systematic support for talented young
                                                          other teams and our model indicates
1 If you do not believe me then I recommend
                                                          that on average the home team is about
the 2016 AFL Injury Survey (http://s.build001.            one third more likely to win a game
aflprod.com/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/2016-             than a foreign team with the same
AFL-Injury-Survey.pdf), which documents that on           qualifications.
average players in each club missed 139.8 games
in the 2016 season and lists the prevalence of
injuries such as concussions, facial fractures, ACL
injuries, forearm, wrist, and hand fractures, and
thoracic spine injuries etc.
PAGE 4

         •   FIFA ranking: The FIFA ranking of            advance to the next round. If on the other
             national teams is based on the results       hand the random chances for team A and B
             of international games in friendlies and     would have been the reverse, team A would
             competitive matches of the last few          have achieved a total score of 45% + 70%
             years. Thus, the FIFA world ranking          = 115% and team B would have achieved a
             provides a crucial input about the recent    total score of 35% + 30% = 65% and team
             strength of a team.                          A progresses to the next round.
         Many of these variables have been used in
         academic studies to explain football success2
         and my model explains about 44% of the
         variation in winning percentage amongst
         teams. Of course, this also means that about
         56% of the variation in winning percentage
         is unexplained by these factors and due to
         luck or other idiosyncratic factors. In order
         to account for this, I have added an element
         of chance to determine the winner of each
         game in the knockout stage.
         Once a team reaches the knockout stage
         or even the quarter- and semi-finals there
         are no easy opponents left. So winning
         depends to a larger and larger extent on the
         form of each team on the day the match is
         played. The model accounts for this element
         of chance by adding a random chance of
         winning to the actual winning percentage of
         each team.
         For example, assume team A has a winning
         percentage of 45% according to the model
         prediction, while team B has a winning
         percentage of 35%. Note that the winning
         percentages do not have to sum to 100%
         because they only measure how often a
         team won a match in a statistical average,
         not in a head to head with a specific team.
         Now we add a random winning chance for
         team A and B for the specific match of A
         vs. B. Let’s assume that the random draw
         concludes that team A has a 30% chance of
         winning, while team B has a 70% chance of
         winning. If we add the model prediction of
         team A and the random chance of winning
         for team A we get a sum total of 45% + 30%
         = 75% and for team B we get 35% + 70%
         = 105%. In other words, team B was able to
         overcome the advantage team A had based
         on its model prediction and team B would

         2 R. Hoffmann, L. C. Ging, and B. Ramasamy,
         (2002). “The Socio-economic determinants of
         international soccer performance.” Journal of
         Applied Economics, Vol. 5 (2), 253 – 272. And
         yes, I could not believe that someone actually
         published a paper about this either.
PAGE 5

Predicting the group                                        neck for second place. In a thrilling match,
                                                            Croatia wins 1-0 against Iceland in injury
stage                                                       time and we have to bid goodbye to the
                                                            Vikings that have given us so much pleasure
Let’s move on from the theory of a model
                                                            in recent years.
to the practicalities of the tournament. The
tournament starts with a group stage where                  Group E: No team is even going to touch
four teams in each group play against each                  Brazil in this group and the Selecao takes
other to determine the two best teams that                  the group by storm. In second place is
will advance to the knockout stage.                         Switzerland with comfortable victories over
                                                            Costa Rica and Serbia.
Group A: Russia had the luck of the draw in
group A and got arguably the easiest group                  Group F: This is the group with Germany and
of all. Unsurprisingly, with the home field                 of course, “Die Mannschaft” will take the top
advantage, Russia is favourite to win the                   spot, while Mexico qualifies as second placed
group, while Uruguay is destined to come                    team.
second. However, with an upset victory over
                                                            Group G: As always, the English team counts
Uruguay, outsiders Egypt will make it into
                                                            itself as part of the favourites to win the title.
the knockout stage as second place team.
                                                            And as always nobody outside the UK thinks
                                                            they have the slightest chance to win the
                                                            title. With Belgium as one of the best teams
  With an upset victory over Uruguay,                       in the tournament in their group, England
                                                            will only end up taking second place after
  outsiders Egypt will make it into the                     Belgium, but the nation will not lose hope
  knockout stage.                                           that they might win the trophy this time
                                                            after all.
Group B: Morocco and Iran can only advance                  Group H: Poland with star striker Robert
to the knockout stage if Spain and reigning                 Lewandowski and Colombia with James
European champion Portugal stumble. And                     Rodriguez are favourites to advance to the
this is very unlikely. It is about as likely as             knockout stage. Senegal, however, deserves
me pogo-sticking up Mount Everest – not                     an honourable mention for giving both teams
impossible, but very unlikely. So Portugal                  a run for their money.
and Spain advance with Portugal as group
winner based on goal difference (thank you
Christiano Ronaldo).
Group C: France will easily win the group
while Denmark and Peru battle for second
place. In the end Peru has a slight advantage
over Denmark and takes second place.
Group D: Argentina is favourite to win the
group but Iceland and Croatia are neck and

Figure 1: The results of the group stage

  Group A          Group B      Group C       Group D       Group E         Group F         Group G      Group H

   Russia          Portugal    France       Argentina    Brazil         Germany        Belgium     Poland
   Egypt           Spain       Peru         Croatia      Switzerland    Mexico         England     Colombia
   Uruguay         Iran        Denmark      Iceland      Costa Rica     Sweden         Tuinisia    Senegal
   Saudi Arabia    Morocco     Australia    Nigeria      Serbia         South Korea    Panama      Japan

Source: Fidante Capital.
PAGE 6

         The last 16: No surprises                       Some exciting quarter-
         here                                            finals
         The results from the group stages pit Russia    All these developments lead to mouth-
         against Spain in the last 16. And no matter     watering quarter-finals. Each of the four
         how big the home field advantage, Spain         matches has the potential to become a
         clearly dominates Russia in this match and      match for the ages and in each match, both
         reaches the quarter-finals with ease. There     teams have a good chance of winning. In the
         they will face a formidable France. The         end the team with the better tactics on the
         young French team has shown impressive          day or the little bit of extra luck will advance
         football throughout the group stage and win     to the next round.
         easily against Croatia.
                                                         Quarter-final 1: Spain, the world champion
         In a Latin American match, Brazil faces         of 2010 meets France, the world champion
         Mexico in the third match of the last 16. The   of 1998. The Spanish team is clearly past
         cold weather in Russia makes it hard for both   its peak with players such as Piqué, Andrés
         teams to play good football but in the end      Iniesta, David Silva, or Sergio Ramos all 30
         Brazil succeeds and advances to the quarter     years or above. Younger players like Thiago
         finals.                                         (26), Álvaro Morata (25) or Alberto Moreno
                                                         (25) are good players, but just not the class
         In the fourth match of the last 16 Belgium
                                                         of the previous generation. And the lack of
         is favourite to win against Colombia and
                                                         a great goal scorer also makes it difficult
         does so convincingly. Belgium, together with
                                                         to succeed against a world class team like
         France play the most impressive football
                                                         France. France, on the other hand, fields a
         of the tournament so far but their next
                                                         young team with formidable offensive power.
         opponent in the quarter-finals will be none
                                                         Antoine Griezmann, Alexandre Lacazette and
         other than mighty Brazil.
                                                         Kylian Mbappé are supported by wingers like
         Next up in the first round of the knockout      Kingsley Coman and Ousmane Dembelé. In
         stage is Egypt vs. Portugal. Even though        the end France simply outscores Spain to
         Portugal does sometimes have difficulties       advance to the semi-final.
         playing against underdogs, outsiders Egypt
                                                         Quarter-final 2: Brazil vs. Belgium. The
         are no match and Portugal advances to the
                                                         most successful team in the history of
         next round.
                                                         the World Cup against the up and coming
         Argentina also has no problems with Peru        European force. Brazil is heavy favourite
         in its knockout match and easily advances       but in the end Belgium wins on penalty
         to the quarter finals, where they will face     kicks. Belgian goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois
         Portugal.                                       becomes the hero of a nation when he
                                                         saves the decisive penalty. It is Barcelona’s
         The seventh match in the round of the
                                                         Paulinho who misses the penalty and will
         last 16 will take place between Germany
                                                         end up on the front page of every Brazilian
         and Switzerland. Honestly, I can’t even be
                                                         newspaper the next day, but not in a good
         bothered to comment on this one. Germany
                                                         way. The attacks against him in the media
         beats Switzerland 3-0.
                                                         and in social networks are so vicious that
         Finally, the match between Poland and           Paulinho decides to retire from the Selecao
         England completes the round of the last         the next day.
         16. For the first time in this tournament it
         becomes obvious how dependent Poland is
         on Robert Lewandowski. With Lewi in bad
         shape for the match and not scoring, it
         falls to Harry Kane to take England into the
         quarter-finals.
PAGE 7

Quarter-final 3: The third quarter-final is       An all-European semi-
Portugal against Argentina. Ronaldo against
Messi, the best player of 2017 against the
                                                  final
best player of all time, the man who says of
                                                  The semi-finals turn out to be a completely
himself that he was sent by God to show the
                                                  European affair with France playing Belgium
world how to play football against the man
                                                  and Portugal going head to head with
who is God. The man who scored his first
                                                  Germany. All the teams are evenly matched
hat-trick at the age of 23 against the man
                                                  and so France wins due to an undeserved
who had a hat-trick of Ballon d’Ors at age
                                                  penalty in the 72nd minute and ends the
23. Well, in any case, Messi is injured in the
                                                  World Cup dreams of the Belgian team. Both
quarter-final and can’t play so Portugal wins
                                                  teams have played an exciting football but
2-1.
                                                  the pressure of a World Cup semi-final was
                                                  clearly visible in this match. None of the
                                                  teams wanted to make a mistake as is so
                                                  often the case in high stakes World Cup
 The third quarter-final is Portugal against
                                                  games and in the end France simply is the
  Argentina. Ronaldo against Messi, the           luckier team of the two. But the Belgian
  best player of 2017 against the best            players can be proud of themselves. The
                                                  future is clearly theirs and they will be a
  player of all time.
                                                  force to reckon with in the 2020 Euros.

Quarter-final 4: Here it is. Germany              The second semi-final between Germany
vs. England – again. Let’s review the two         and Portugal is also a close affair. Ronaldo
opponents here. Germany has Manuel Neuer,         opens with an early goal to take the lead
the best goalkeeper in the world, Mats            for the reigning European champion against
Hummels and Jerome Boateng, the best              the reigning world champion. But Germany
centre backs in the world, Mesut Özil, the        strikes back quickly with a beautiful goal
man with the most assists in the Premier          from Özil. The game turns out to be similarly
League since 2013, Thomas Müller, top             entertaining as the legendary match for third
goal-scorer of the World Cup 2010 and the         place at the 2006 World Cup. And the result
man with more goals in a World Cup than           turns out to be the same as well. 3-1 for
the entire England squad put together. And        Germany.
England has Harry Kane.
The teams have met in a World Cup five
times. In the final of the 1966 World Cup          The semi-finals turn out to be a
England won 4-2. So much for the glory
                                                    completely European affair with France
days of England. In 1970, Germany won 3-2,
in 1982 the teams met at the group stage            playing Belgium and Portugal going head
and drew 0-0. In 1990 England lost against          to head with Germany.
Germany in the semi-finals in a penalty
shoot-out. In 2010 Germany won against
England in the last 16 4-1. Of the last fifteen
matches against each other England won
three. I am completely objective when I
predict that Germany will advance to the
semi-final.
PAGE 8

         And the winner is…
         Which brings us to the final between France
         and Germany. Germany is the favourite to
         win this match and defend a world title for
         the first time since Brazil in 1962. But the
         French team is hungry for the title and their
         manager Didier Deschamp has prepared
         them well for the challenge. In the end the
         team that has played the most attractive
         football of the tournament wins. France
         beats Germany 2-1 and becomes world
         champion for the second time.
         So there you have it. France will win the
         World Cup 2018. Given the statistical
         accuracy of my model you don’t even have
         to bother watching the games anymore.
         Just go and put some money on France and
         come back in July with a grin on your face
         to collect your winnings. The current odds of
         France winning the World cup are 6/1 by the
         way.

         Figure 2: The knockout stage

                                                                                  France

                                          France                                                                           Germany

                       France                                Belgium                                  Portugal                              Germany

              Spain             France             Brazil              Belgium             Portugal              Argentina           Germany          England

              Russia            France              Brazil             Belgium               Egypt                  Peru             Switzerland      England

              Spain             Croatia            Mexico              Colombia            Portugal              Argentina            Germany          Poland

         Source: Fidante Capital.
PAGE 9
PAGE 10

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this marketing communication. There are a number of
factors that could cause actual results, developments,
financial targets and strategic objectives to differ
PAGE 12

          Contacts
          Research                     Trevor Barnett
          Joachim Klement              +1 212 897 2807
          +44 20 7832 0956             tbarnett@fidante-us.com
          jklement@fidante.com
                                       Adam Randall
          Martin McCubbin              +1 212 897 2807
          +44 20 7832 0952             arandall@fidante-us.com
          mmcubbin@fidante.com
                                       Market Making
          Aliy Akbarov
                                       STX 79411 79412
          +44 20 7832 0957
          aakbarov@fidante.com         Mark Naughton
                                       +44 20 7832 0991
                                       mnaughton@fidante.com
          UK Sales
          Daniel Balabanoff
          +44 20 7832 0955             Product Development
          dbalabanoff@fidante.com      Tom Skinner
                                       +44 20 7832 0953
          Max Bickford
                                       tskinner@fidante.com
          +44 20 7832 0934
          mbickford@fidante.com
          Patrick Valentine            Corporate Finance
          +44 20 7832 0932             John Armstrong-Denby
          pvalentine@fidante.com       +44 20 7832 0982
                                       jdenby@fidante.com
          Justin Zawoda-Martin
          +44 20 7832 0931             Nick Donovan
          jzawodamartin@fidante.com    +44 20 7832 0981
                                       ndonovan@fidante.com

          International Sales
          Christian Andersson
          +46 8 1215 1360
          candersson@fidante.com
          Ian Brenninkmeijer
          +46 8 1215 1361
          ibrennikmeijer@fidante.com
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