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Issue 37 / February 2018 FOLLOWING PRICE AND KEEP IT AMAZON PREJUDICE GROWING Tapping the Is value making a The case for taking e-commerce boom comeback? risk in retirement
EDITOR’S LETTER
Issue 37 / February 2018
T
HE BEST-PERFORMING STOCK ON THE
FTSE ALL SHARE LAST YEAR wasn’t the
UK’s answer to Facebook or Google, nor was it
a miner riding a price rebound in its
underlying commodity. Amid all the talk of a sector in
long-term decline, the index’s top-performer in 2017 was
actually high-street stalwart Games Workshop, with gains
FOLLOWING
AMAZON
Tapping the
PRICE AND
PREJUDICE
Is value making a
KEEP IT
GROWING
The case for taking
of more than 300 per cent. While the manufacturer of fantasy board games is
by no means a typical store and it makes approximately 70 per cent of sales
e-commerce boom comeback? risk in retirement
from overseas, it still demonstrates what investors could be missing out on if
ISSUE 37 they tarnish an entire sector with the same brush, as Rebecca Jones finds out
in this issue’s cover feature.
If you like the idea of finding value in out-of-favour stocks, the
good news – according to an article from Cherry Reynard – is that
the conditions look extremely favourable for this type of investing.
CREDITS However, Adam Lewis says the bad news is that all the easy gains in UK
small caps, which have a higher exposure to the UK consumer, may
have already been made. I look at the other side of the coin as I search for
TRUSTNET MAGAZINE (FORMERLY the best way to tap into the unstoppable rise of internet shopping.
INVESTAZINE) IS PUBLISHED BY In our regular columns, John Blowers floats the idea of maintaining
THE TEAM BEHIND FE TRUSTNET IN
SOHO, LONDON. the same level of risk throughout your retirement, MitonOptimal’s
Paul Warner reveals why he is adding Montanaro UK Income to his SRI
WEBSITE: WWW.TRUSTNETDIRECT.COM Balanced Growth portfolio and Gervais Williams names three stocks he
EMAIL: EDITORIAL@FINANCIALEXPRESS.NET
is backing in another out-of-favour sector – oil.
CONTACTS:
Enjoy reading,
Anthony Luzio
Editor
T: 0207 534 7652
Art direction & design
Javier Otero
W: www.feedingcrows.co.uk
Editorial
Gary Jackson
Editor (FE Trustnet)
T: 0207 534 7680
Rob Langston
News editor
T: 0207 534 7696
Lauren Mason
Senior reporter
T: 0207 534 7625
Jonathan Jones
Reporter
T: 0207 534 7640
Sales
Richard Fletcher
Head of publishing sales
T: 0207 534 7662
Richard Casemore
Account manager
T: 0207 534 7669
Photos supplied by Thinkstock In association with:
and Photoshot
Cover illustration: Javier OteroIN THIS ISSUE
8
22
28
DEATH OF THE HIGH STREET Rebecca Jones says the long-term decline of traditional retail doesn’t make
it a no-go area for investors P. 2-5 / AIM FOR THE STARS James Henderson believes the AIM index contains
the next generation of UK companies that could drive the economy for years to come P. 6-7 / PRICE AND
PREJUDICE There are signs the out-of-favour value strategy is coming back into fashion, writes Cherry
Reynard P. 8-10 / REGARDS FROM SHANGHAI Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust’s James Anderson says
Alibaba represents the future of retail P. 12-13 / FOLLOWING AMAZON Anthony Luzio seeks out the best
way to tap the e-commerce boom P. 14-16 / FUND, PENSION, TRUST Polar Capital UK Absolute Equity, F&C
Responsible Income and Capital Gearing Trust find themselves under the spotlight this month P. 18-20 /
MISSED THE BOAT? Anyone who thinks Brexit worries have created a value opportunity in UK small caps may
be a year too late, warns Adam Lewis P. 22-26 / KEEP IT GROWING The notion of de-risking your pension pot
as you approach retirement may have had its day, writes John Blowers P. 28-31 / WELL-OILED Miton’s Gervais
Williams names three oil producers set to benefit from the commodity’s price recovery P. 32 / WHAT I BOUGHT
LAST MitonOptimal’s Paul Warner says Montanaro UK Income is suitable for the group’s SRI portfolios even
though it isn’t marketed for this purpose P. 33/ UK RETAIL /
The retail sector as we know it is
changing beyond all recognition,
but this doesn’t make it a no-go
area for investors, writes
Rebecca Jones
U
K RETAILERS AREN’T HAVING A
GREAT TIME OF IT. Over the past
decade, brands once synonymous with
everyday British shopping habits – from
Marks & Spencer to Tesco to department
store goliath Debenhams – have reported sales figures
that have become weaker and weaker. Despite a
difficult backdrop, however, some unexpected
winners are beginning to emerge in this new retail
landscape – if you know where to look.
ONLINE OR BUST
The arch nemesis of the high street is, undoubtedly,
the internet. Online retailers have made sourcing and
purchasing even the most obscure items effortless,
leaving little reason for consumers to tackle high street
crowds. Areas that have been hit particularly hard
by this trend include books, media and electronics
– products that arguably only the most eccentric
consumers refuse to source from Amazon or iTunes.
The demise of entertainment retailers including Virgin
Megastores (later Zavvi) and HMV between 2009 and
2014 is testament to this, while Dixons is clinging on by
its fingernails after the collapse of Comet in 2012.
Fashion retailing is one of the more recent victims.
An area once thought to be safe from the online
juggernaut due to the vagaries of size and fit that
were most efficiently navigated onsite has been
transformed by companies making it easier than
ever to find the perfect outfit. Keith Ashworth-Lord,
manager of the Sanford DeLand UK Buffettology
fund, explains: “In fashion, the trend is absolutely
away from bricks and mortar, towards online. I only
have to look at my daughter who orders three sizes
of something then sends two back the next day to see
that. When the market cap of ASOS overtakes Marks
& Spencer, that tells you something.”
While fending off the internet giants, high street
retailers have also had to contend with rising rents.
Ashworth-Lord says that property values in many
prime central retail locations have rocketed, hurting
larger firms with big stores such as M&S, Debenhams
and House of Fraser (the latter two recently issued
crippling profit warnings). According to Gervais
Williams, manager of the Miton UK MicroCap trust,
this has compounded other cost concerns: “We’ve
trustnet.com 3been very cautious on this sector
for a long time – there are a lot of
headwinds. In the UK we’ve got the
minimum wage rising quite fast
at the moment, which affects a lot
of counter staff at retailers, adding
more pressure.”
POUND SALE
In addition to these longer-term
challenges, the UK’s vote to leave
the EU in June 2016 – and the
subsequent sharp devaluation of
the pound – has hurt businesses
across the board, although once
again, it’s retailers that are taking the
heat: “I think sterling was overdue
a correction, but for businesses that
import a lot of what they sell – and
that is predominately retailers – that
has been a problem, without doubt,”
says Ashworth-Lord. Williams
concurs, adding the currency hedges
that savvy importers may have
purchased pre-Brexit will now likely
be expiring, adding further cost-woe
for some retailers.
Perhaps more important,
however, is the effect that
shrinking sterling has had on the “Games Workshop is totally fan-
UK consumer. Inflation has been
glued to the floor since the Bank
based. The people that buy this
of England embarked on its titanic product would find this store if it
was 100ft underground”
monetary stimulus programme in
2009, however Brexit has pushed it
back up to pre-crisis levels of more
than 3 per cent. While this in itself
is not bad news, wage stagnation back-to-basics German discounters SURVIVORS AND THRIVERS
has provided a double whammy: Aldi and Lidl have stolen a march Despite all this doom and gloom,
“Simply put, wages are not rising on British stalwarts such as Tesco managers insist there is hope for
as fast as prices and that squeeze is and Sainsbury’s. Williams explains: Britain’s high street retailers. Perhaps
onerous. Sterling has strengthened “It used to be that people looked for unsurprisingly, one of the most
of late, but despite this – and rising the widest range. Now many are important survival factors is an
employment – the consumer is happy with smaller local retailers online offering. Ashworth points
struggling,” says James Henderson, [where] you don’t need to choose to Next – one of the few fashion
manager of the Henderson from 15 types of pepper.” retailers that is holding up in the
Opportunities Trust. While this has not yet extended current environment – as a case
Even more worrying for far beyond groceries, Williams in point: “The trend is very clearly
investors, though, is the most says this could be a trend to watch: towards online and what we have
recent trend to emerge among “There’s a pattern where people are to look for as investors are the
consumers: that of not – in-fact – getting tired of having too many businesses that are best placed to
consuming. This is most evident things. I think they are changing withdraw from the high street. For
in the supermarket sector, where their behaviour a bit.” me, Next fits this bill. The average
4 trustnet.com/ UK RETAIL /
there are plenty of bricks and In no company is the specialist
mortar retailers that are growing dynamic more evident than fantasy
– and playing to the consumer board game manufacturer Games
squeeze is key. His holdings in Workshop – the best performing
Shoezone, convenience store chain stock on the FTSE All Share last
McColl’s and Bargain Booze-owner year – and a standout performer
Conviviality have performed well for Ashworth-Lord: “That is really
thanks to a combination of renting specialist and totally fanbased.
units in cheaper areas, discounting The people that buy this product
and an astute awareness of would find this store if it was 100ft
customers’ needs. Matt Hudson, underground.”
co-manager of the Schroder UK As Games Workshop shows, a
Opportunities fund, points to B&M strong brand encouraging a loyal
– an everyday essentials retailer customer base still has a role to
that is expanding fast: “B&M is play in retailing – despite price
putting down more space, but it becoming ever more important.
buys in bulk and sources well from For Hudson, urban streetwear
Asia. It’s a price-competitive model label Superdry is another good
set up to ensure that low price is example. Launched in 2004, the
passed on to consumers, and they brand has grown through the
seem to like that.” label-love of the mid 2000s to
emerge as a staple for mid-level
SPECIAL SAUCE consumers, while its expansion
Businesses that provide specialist into Asia and the US is providing
products and services are also more support. “In the UK, [Superdry]
likely to thrive and Henderson and only has 100 stores, but the real
Hudson point to Halfords as an strength has been the way it has
example: “Halfords is a destination distributed the brand globally.
rental lease on its stores is around if you want to motor or bicycle, so It’s on trend with the growth of
seven years, so it can get out pretty it has a role as a high street retailer athletic leisurewear and we’ve
quickly, while it is growing purely as it is not something that’s easy seen lots of stocks in that area do
through online sales.” to do online. Specialists can buck really well,” Hudson says.
Shutting up shop isn’t the only trends more easily than generalists,” The future of UK retailers is
option. As Henderson observes, Henderson argues. perhaps more uncertain than it
has ever been. The pace of growth
in online retail has caught many
investors by surprise and if Moore’s
PERFORMANCE OF STOCKS VS INDEX IN 2017 Law is anything to go by, it’s not
going to slow down. The more
350% Games Workshop (311.01%) short-term headwinds buffeting
300% ConvivialityRetail (93.93%) the sector – namely the post-Brexit
250% McolsRetail (48.84%) consumer squeeze – will die down.
FTSE All Share (13.10%)
However, retailing is going through
200%
a fundamental shift and investors
150% must ensure they pick the winners.
100% Hudson summarises: “The most
important thing is that retailers
50%
acknowledge these changes in
0% consumer behaviour, how they
-50% impact their businesses and have
the flexibility to take on that
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challenge. Those that can embrace
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Source: FE Analytics the change will survive.”
trustnet.com 5For promotional purposes
AIM FOR
THE STARS
James Henderson of the Henderson Opportunities Trust says
the AIM index contains the next generation of UK companies that
could drive the economy for years to come
T
HERE ARE ALWAYS strong headwinds, with a companies such a good hunting
MONEY-MAKING slowdown in economic activity ground for opportunities, despite
INVESTMENT predicted. There is also the the economic backdrop. ASOS had
OPPORTUNITIES structural challenge caused by a value of a few million pounds in
waiting out in the yesterday’s strong franchises 2005 and it now has a market value
market and it is only lack of rapidly being reduced to today’s of £5bn (Source: Bloomberg, February
imagination and idleness that stop tired business models. 2018). It is still listed on AIM.
us professional investment Think how Ladbrokes Many of the new, young
managers from taking them. This is dominated the betting market companies on AIM will fail but
a fact I have needed to remind only for its market share to this will primarily not be the
myself about in recent months. The be eaten away by the online fault of the economy – rather
UK can appear depressing with the platforms or the way internet their inadequacies as a business.
Brexit debate ratcheting up to the clothes retail business ASOS went In the same way the winners will
point of angry disagreement in from a start-up to having a market succeed because of their own
which everyone will be a loser and capitalisation nearly the same as efforts and excellence of product.
where real wages are falling. The Marks and Spencer. It is refreshing every time to meet
large consumer stocks, property It is the rapid speed of change and talk to a new young company
companies and utilities are facing that is making some AIM-listed on AIM.
6 trustnet.com/ JANUS HENDERSON /
For a start, Brexit is unlikely to in the early days with absurd There will be many
be mentioned. The successes come valuations that proved to be disappointments, but the next
in many different areas of activity. businesses of no value, followed by a generation of dynamic UK
Tonic water producer Fevertree mining boom when the hype did not companies that will play their
and robotics company Blue Prism match the reality, resulting in heavy part in driving the UK economy
were two of the stars last year, while losses for investors. These two events forward, regardless of Brexit and
Scapa, an industrial tape company, dragged down the AIM returns. politicians, can be found on the
and Johnson Services, a laundry The returns since the 19th year over one thousand companies
business, have given very strong anniversary have seen substantial that are on AIM. AIM can
returns recently. Success, like failure, growth driven by a diverse range of therefore play an important part
comes in many different areas. An stocks (see bottom chart). in a well-balanced portfolio.
interesting characteristic of Scapa
and Johnson Group is that they
were both once quoted on the main
market. They had become problem- PERFORMANCE OF INDEX MAY 1997 TO MAY 2016
riddled old companies, but the
move to AIM and new management 300% FTSE AIM All Share -TOT Return IND (Rebased 100)
teams meant they rediscovered their
250%
purpose and drive. This shows it
is not only young companies that 200%
succeed on AIM, old companies can 150%
reinvent themselves. It is the lighter
regulations and lower costs that 100% -21.6%
mean some companies leave the 50%
main market to join AIM and these
0%
can be important factors in their
recovery plans.
M 7
M 8
M 9
M 0
M 1
M 2
M 3
M 4
M 5
M 6
M 7
M 8
M 9
M 0
M 1
M 2
M 3
M 4
M 5
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9
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0
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0
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ay
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ay
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ay
ay
ay
ay
ay
ay
ay
ay
ay
What, therefore, is the process for
M
finding a successful investment on Source: Datastream, as at 12 May 2016. Rebased to 100, as at 12 May 1997
AIM? Given there is no blueprint
for success, there is no process for
finding a successful investment
other than doing the research. If you PERFORMANCE OF INDEX MAY 2016 TO NOV 2017
stay open to new ideas and then see
160%
a lot of companies already quoted FTSE AIM All Share -TOT Return IND (Rebased 100) +44.5%
on AIM or coming to AIM every 150%
so often, through elements of luck 140%
and hard observation, the successful 130%
investment will be found. 120%
AIM has had a good year but this 110%
has not always been the case: in fact 100%
the AIM index was down from its 90%
launch in 1997 to May 2016 (see
80%
chart top-right).
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The reasons for this were that
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investors had chased fashion. There
were too many tech companies Source: Datastream, as at 21 November 2017. Rebased to 100, as at 12 May 2016
Before investing in an investment trust referred to in this document, you should satisfy yourself as to its suitability and the risks involved,
you may wish to consult a financial adviser. [Past performance is not a guide to future performance]. The value of an investment and the
income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. [Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon
an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those circumstances or the law change]. Nothing in this document is intended
to or should be construed as advice. This document is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. It does not form part of
any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment. [We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer
service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.]
Issued in the UK by Janus Henderson Investors. Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which Janus Capital International Limited
(reg no. 3594615), Henderson Global Investors Limited (reg. no. 906355), Henderson Investment Funds Limited (reg. no. 2678531),
AlphaGen Capital Limited (reg. no. 962757), Henderson Equity Partners Limited (reg. no.2606646), (each incorporated and registered in
England and Wales with registered office at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE) are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority to provide investment products and services.
© 2018, Janus Henderson Investors. The name Janus Henderson Investors includes HGI Group Limited, Henderson Global Investors
(Brand Management) Sarl and Janus International Holding LLC.
trustnet.com 7YOUR PORTFOLIO
PRICE
AND PREJUDICE
Cherry Reynard says there are signs the out-of-favour
value strategy could be coming back into fashion
T
t has been an growth when it was hard to come Estimates suggest that the
uncomfortable time to by in most other areas of the consumer discretionary sector
be a value manager market. At the same time, banks is now trading at a discount
and even the most and mining companies have of around 25 per cent relative
ardent followers of the appeared too precarious for most to industrials, yet there is no
discipline may be wondering investors’ tastes. meaningful difference in earnings
whether it has had its day. After The question then, with many growth or future prospects.
almost a decade when the value of the factors that have driven the Value has started to fare better
style has lagged its peers, is it time outperformance of growth styles since the start of 2018, but Stephen
to admit defeat? Or could it be that reversing, is whether this will Peters, portfolio manager at
the underperformance is simply change as the environment does? Barclays Wealth and Investment
down to monetary policy and the The US 10-year treasury yield, for Management, points out that
scales will start to tip back now example, is now edging towards 3 January 2017 saw a similar trend
that interest rates are rising? per cent, having been as low as 2 before growth reasserted itself.
Over the last 10 years, the MSCI per cent in September 2017. This At the same time, markets have
World Value index has delivered means risk-averse investors no shown that they can be insensitive
a total return 125.26 per cent, longer have to look to the equity to valuations for extended periods.
compared with 183.56 per cent market for income.
from the equivalent growth index. TURNING THE CORNER
Against an uncertain economic FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS Nevertheless, asset allocators are
backdrop, investors have favoured At the same time, economic starting to adjust their portfolios
reliable growth with little concern growth is no longer scarce. The and there is a recognition the
for how much they paid for it. IMF recently upgraded its global environment may have finally
Few were willing to take a risk on growth forecast to 3.9 per cent, turned. James Klempster, head
unloved “value” names, such as aided by US tax cuts and a buoyant of portfolio management at
banks or mining companies. Chinese economy. Companies are Momentum Global Investment
generally operating in a favourable Management, says he normally
PROXIES environment, meaning investors maintains a balance between
Certainly, the monetary should no longer have to pay equity and growth styles in
policy environment has been higher prices for growth stocks his portfolios, but is starting
contributory. Falling interest rates when “weaker” companies are also to tilt them towards value:
and the resulting low bond yields delivering the goods. “Growth has been at the fore for
have made bond proxy sectors This can be seen in the valuation a number of years and has had a
attractive. This has driven the differential between sectors phenomenal time, but is now quite
performance of companies that such as consumer discretionary concentrated and value has been
delivered dependable earnings companies and industrials. left behind – it is bifurcated.”
8 trustnet.comTHE VALUE TRADE trustnet.com 9
/ THE VALUE TRADE /
PERFORMANCE OF INDICES OVER 10YRS difficult. Peters says: “It will be
200%
interesting to see how some of the
MSCI AC World Growth (183.56%) top-performing managers of the
150%
last few years and small- and mid-
MSCI AC World Value (125.26%)
cap focused managers do.”
There is a more nuanced point
100%
about active versus passive if
the environment is moving to
80% favour value, says Peters. Many of
the value names are to be found
80% among the largest companies
such as those in banking, mining
and the oil & gas sectors. Active
managers tend to hunt around
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b0
b0
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b1
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small and mid cap names and
Fe
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Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Source: FE Analytics don’t see as many opportunities
to add value among their larger
counterparts. Fund managers
Fund managers would need to
would need to be willing to rotate
towards the sectors that have
be willing to rotate portfolios
struggled since the financial crisis
if they start to outperform and may
towards the sectors that have end up looking more passive.
Value has had “dead cat bounces”
struggled since the financial before, but this time feels different.
Monetary policy is shifting and
crisis if they start to outperform this is finally being felt in bond
markets. All this influences
and may end up looking more sector preferences among equity
passive
investors and may tip the balance
towards value.
He believes the gap is wider
in some countries than others,
adding: “We need to be careful
about regional allocation. Growth
in the US has done well and there
are more question marks over
valuations than in the UK or
Europe. That said, we believe there
are good opportunities in value-
driven strategies everywhere.”
Which value managers are
likely to benefit most from this
environment? Proponents of this
style tend to fall into “extreme”
and “value-lite” approaches.
Peters says managers such as Old
Mutual’s Richard Buxton and
Jupiter’s Ben Whitmore – who
have long term contrarian styles
with a value tilt – stand to perform
well in this type of value-driven
market. However, their approach
is not so assiduous as to only
function in a “value” environment.
At the same time, there are
managers who will find it more
10 trustnet.comREGARDS
from
SHANGHAI
I’ve seen the future and it probably works.
I
’M WRITING AN shopping day anywhere in the Alibaba’s rise encapsulates the
HOUR AFTER THE world be it online or traditional. ascent and challenges of the power
PRIVILEGE OF A Alibaba expects to process 360,000 of technology, its scale signals
MEETING WITH transactions a second in the coming the awesome power of a small
JACK MA. The 24 hours. No other company in the number of giant corporations and
founder of Chinese internet giant world comes close to this scale. its example is a harbinger of an
Alibaba was in especially ebullient Singles Day and Alibaba age of Chinese progress and global
mood as he was preparing for the symbolise developments that are leadership that is barely grasped in
start of Singles Day – a company transforming our economic and even the most ambitious forecasts.
invented occasion that now attracts social lives. The forces set in motion Why does Alibaba promote
a TV audience twice the size of the are highly likely to dominate Singles Day? It’s great publicity
US Super Bowl and dwarfs any other our lives and financial markets. for sure and probably helps boost
12 trustnet.com/ BAILLIE GIFFORD /
the business overall. But that’s not internet technology in the world.
the point. As Mr Ma explained it’s JAMES ANDERSON China’s physical infrastructure
a stress test for the future. In about Investment Manager is also modern and often superb.
eight years’ time Alibaba thinks it James graduated BA in History Education levels are generally high.
from Oxford University and after
will be dealing with such volumes Social solidarity is strong.
postgraduate study in Italy and
every normal day – around 10-12 Canada he gained an MA in
So why would China stop
times current average levels. The International Affairs in 1982. He growing? As I discussed with
logistics systems need to learn is a Trustee of the Johns Hopkins Jack Ma, shouldn’t we instead be
how to cope. Alibaba’s human and University. He joined Baillie Gifford thinking that China has every
machine scientists need to see how in 1983 and became a Partner in chance of being as rich as America
such unparalleled data sets can be 1987. He headed our European on a per capita basis? Although this
sorted and interpreted to further Equity team until 2003 when he will take time to come to fruition,
strengthen links to individual co-founded our Long Term Global if 7% annual growth continues for
customers. Growth strategy and has been the another decade then even Anglo-
At present the US and China Manager and then Joint Manager American commentators might
of Scottish Mortgage Investment
compete for global leadership in have to acknowledge a shifting
Trust since 2000.
machine learning and artificial world order. In any case pessimism
intelligence. But it’s likely that in about world growth would have
the next decade Chinese leadership proven rather exaggerated.
will become firmly established. likely to be helpfully symbiotic For markets it’s only companies of
As Martin Lau of Tencent (the than damagingly exclusive. That’s the significance and scale of Alibaba,
other Chinese technology giant great for us all. In healthcare the and tectonic shifts in perception
to have added a mere $200 billion combination of data empowering such as China potentially becoming
of market value in 2017) puts it, personalised medicine, and the as rich as America on a per capita
scale is more of an advantage to collapse in the price and rise basis, that are worthy of attention.
China in a data age than it was in in performance of genomic There’s a persistent illusion that
the manufacturing era. And in turn sequencing, will permit far earlier the normal is of relevance. It isn’t.
data is the most important factor of and better diagnosis of health It matters not one iota to long-run
production in our new economy. problems. Advances in gene therapy market returns that British GDP
From the delivery of food through and synthetic biology ought to turns out to be a decimal point or
to autonomous driving, this gives match cures with diagnosis for all two higher or lower than expected.
brilliant and blindingly ambitious their societal challenges. It’s only of interest to traders,
Chinese entrepreneurs a giant But let’s refocus on the specifics of speculators and investment banks if
canvas to work on. Alibaba and the Chinese economy. quarterly earnings reports exceed or
There follow wider and beneficial Alibaba recently celebrated its 18th disappoint expectations. As recent
consequences. It’s already clear birthday. Revenue growth was 61% academic research has confirmed,
that Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu and in the quarter to September 2017. most stocks don’t even outperform
a host of their smaller and usually As the company points out, China’s bonds over their lifetime. Just
affiliated brethren are expanding per capita GDP has compounded ignore the daily nonsense. Throw
progress in data into early at an annual rate of 14% over the market forecasts in the nearest
explorations of the potential to last 18 years. This means that the bin. Investment life is best lived in
improve healthcare and education average citizen is almost 10 times the exponential extremes. We’re
after the paralysis of recent decades. better off than when Alibaba was lucky to live in an era where
In these contexts parallel efforts born. With its help, China now companies and economies can
in China and America are more possesses the most advanced mobile grow to the sky.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RISK FACTORS
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trustnet.com 13YOUR PORTFOLIO
FOLLOWING
AMAZON
Anthony Luzio seeks out the most effective way to tap
into the e-commerce boom
and shoulders above all others – One number that isn’t so
W
ITH TRADITIONAL Amazon. And the figures speak impressive is the bottom line.
HIGH STREET for themselves: for every dollar While Amazon has recently begun
STORES IN LONG- spent online in the US last year, to turn a profit, this is mainly
TERM DECLINE, the Amazon captured 53 cents. It down to Amazon Web Services,
natural place for investors to turn accounted for 4 per cent of total the company’s cloud-computing
to is online retail. But just because retail sales and is expected to unit. It still loses money from its
e-commerce has dealt a fatal blow bring in $200bn in 2018. retail operations and it is this,
to many of the shops we grew up As Janus Henderson’s John combined with a $650bn market
with, does this automatically Pattullo put it: “We were at an cap and P/E of above 200, that
make it a good investment? Amazon Disruption Day run by has led some investors to call it
When it comes to internet Morgan Stanley recently – we overvalued.
shopping, one name stands head went with trepidation and we
came back pretty scared. Even
the thought that Amazon is
going to move into something
like the pharmaceutical sector
causes that sector to sell off and
companies to start consolidating
on the back of it.”
14 trustnet.com/ E-COMMERCE /
However Tom Slater of the
Scottish Mortgage Investment “We were at an Amazon
Trust says investors need to look
at the bigger picture and that with
Disruption Day run by Morgan
companies such as Amazon, it is
about where they will be in five
Stanley recently – we went with
years’ time at the very least. trepidation and we came back
pretty scared”
“I think there’s this idea
that Amazon isn’t interested
in making money because it
has persistently low margins,”
he explains. “I see it slightly “If you go to the biggest day of value. Like Amazon, he notes it
differently, which is that it takes Chinese retail, Singles Day, there continues to reinvest its increasing
the profits from things that are $25bn of sales on Alibaba’s free cash-flow into new markets.
are working and invests them website,” says Slater. “If you got “Alibaba is still in the early
extremely aggressively in new every website in the US on Cyber phase of monetising its customer
areas. I would be astonished if Monday, they took $6bn.” base and increasing engagement
its books business, for example, While these figures are as it continues to increase its
didn’t have extremely attractive impressive on their own, what is data management capability and
margins given its global market truly staggering is that within the network reach,” he says.
share. It’s just that you never see next decade Alibaba expects to see “The diversification of revenue
that, and that’s why looking at sales on this scale every day and is streams is creating strong captive
short-term earnings multiples can currently using the levels seen on eco-systems, which will continue
be quite dangerous.” Singles Day to stress-test its service. to engage and grow its customer
He adds that you do not need to Aside from the growth of base further. The high investment
delve too deeply into the numbers online shopping, Alibaba is also will pay dividends in the medium
to see the benefits of this strategy benefiting from the growth of the to long term as net profits
– Amazon’s revenue growth Chinese middle class. As Scottish continue to see steady and healthy
hasn’t fallen below 20 per cent in Mortgage’s James Anderson notes absolute growth, which we believe
the past 10 years, and the figure on page 12, China’s per capita the market is underappreciating.”
for 2017 stands at 31 per cent GDP has compounded at an
compared with about 6 per cent annual rate of 14 per cent over
for the wider market. the past 18 years, helping Alibaba
to drive revenue growth of
OPEN SESAME 61 per cent in the quarter to
To consider just how far Amazon September 2017.
can go, we need to address the It is currently on a P/E of
falsehood at the beginning of just over 40 with a market cap of
this article – that the company $450bn and Gary Greenberg, head
stands head and shoulders above of emerging markets at Hermes,
the competition when it comes believes it has scope to
to online retail. The truth is its create further
scale is dwarfed by its Chinese
counterpart, Alibaba.
trustnet.com 15/ E-COMMERCE /
LATE TO THE PARTY
After looking at how far the likes “It is not just about having
of Alibaba and Amazon have
come already – both have gone up lorries. Clothing retailers need
more than 10-fold since Slater first
added them to Scottish Mortgage,
the returns sorted, dispatched
for example – some investors who to a dedicated steam room, re-
hung, bagged and returned”
are wistful of missing out on the
easy money may be tempted to
look for the next big thing instead.
However Catherine Yeung,
Fidelity’s investment director BACK HOME “We have witnessed significant
in Hong Kong, says this is an ASOS and Boohoo are the improvements in online
extremely risky strategy as the e-commerce leaders in the UK, but transaction security and growth in
scale of the forerunners means neither has the scale of Amazon credit payment options, with firms
they are effectively running an or Alibaba, although both have such as Worldpay and Experian
“e-commerce monopoly”. similarly weighty P/E ratios. benefiting from the growth of
She pointed to what happened Many fund managers believe a payments online,” he adds.
with Chinese online retailer better way to play the theme of There is no doubt the internet’s
JD.com – which has a market cap online retail is through investing stranglehold on retail will tighten
of $60bn – when it tried to expand. in its “picks and shovels” instead. over the long term, nor is there
“One of its spin-offs is called VIP Nigel Thomas, manager of AXA much doubt about who the major
Shop whose market share is in the Framlington Select Opportunities, players will be. The question
low teens,” she explains. “In June notes 40 per cent of the products is whether you think they are
it has its equivalent to Alibaba’s delivered by ASOS are returned, worth the sky-high multiples
Singles Day and this quarter is which has led to the growth of they command. You can opt for
where it had its highest sales. But reverse logistics companies. one of the satellite industries that
Alibaba just came in over the top “It is not just about having supports the e-commerce boom,
and there was nothing it could do.” lorries, vans and distribution but with a smaller company there
centres. Clothing retailers need is the risk its business model will
the returns sorted, dispatched to be disrupted by the next big thing
a dedicated steam room, re-hung – much like the high street itself.
and bagged, and returned
to the retailer,” he says.
“We invested in Eddie
Stobart Logistics, which
has expanded into this
area, leveraging its
expertise in distribution
centres and ‘middle mile’
haulage.”
Thomas says payment
is another crucial area of
e-commerce.
16 trustnet.comIN FOCUS
Fund
POLAR CAPITAL UK
ABSOLUTE EQUITY moments – of 5.73 per cent is
higher than the 1.12 per cent
average. However, many absolute
return funds have posted a higher
Guy Rushton’s fund is the best-performer in its sector maximum drawdown in the past
since launch, but it may not be suitable for every three years, with several hit by
double-digit losses.
absolute return investor Rushton has put this risk to good
T
use and the fund’s Sharpe ratio – a
HE POLAR CAPITAL UK lowest was 7.49 per cent, its measure of risk-adjusted returns
ABSOLUTE EQUITY FUND performance in 2016. – of 2.08 is by far the highest in
was launched little over Of course, the IA Targeted the peer group. JPM Global Macro
three years ago but has generated Absolute Return sector is a mixed Opportunities in second place has
what is by far the highest total bag of funds with aims ranging a score of 0.86.
return of the IA Targeted Absolute from extreme capital preservation The fund was awarded the
Return sector over this time. through to aggressive bets against highest score of five FE Crowns
Between launch on 29 equities. The Polar Capital fund when it first became eligible for
September 2014 and the end of has surged to the top of the the award in January, as a result
January 2018, Guy Rushton’s performance table because of its of its superior performance in
£502.8m fund made 115.2 per focus on equities, which offer the terms of stockpicking, consistency
cent, compared with just 8.83 per potential for high returns but with and risk control.
cent from the sector average and correspondingly high levels of risk. Charles Younes, research
39.10 per cent from the fund in For example, the fund’s manager at FE, said: “The long/
second place, JPM Global Macro annualised volatility since launch short equity Polar Capital fund
Opportunities. is 10.75 per cent, the fifth-highest returned a positive performance
Polar Capital UK Absolute Equity score in the sector, where the of 47.51 per cent last year with its
aims to deliver positive absolute average stands at just 1.75 per stockpicking and long exposure to
returns over 12-month periods by cent. Likewise, its maximum materials, IT and financials paying
investing on a long/short basis, drawdown – the amount investors off. But this is a highly volatile
mainly in UK equities, although it can would have lost if they bought strategy, which does not suit every
take a small exposure to European and sold at the worst possible investor profile.”
and global equities as well.
Data from FE Analytics shows
the fund has succeeded in its
12-month positive absolute return PERFORMANCE OF FUND VS SECTOR SINCE LAUNCH
target on a rolling basis in every
120% Polar Capital UK Absolute Equity (115.2%)
one of the 29 months of relevant
track record. Its highest 12-month IA Targeted Absolute Return (8.83%)
100%
return stands at 47.51 per cent,
which it achieved in 2017; the 80%
60%
FILE
40%
MANAGER: Guy Rushton
LAUNCHED: 29/09/2014 20%
FUND SIZE: £502.8m
0%
OCF: 1.15% (plus 20%
performance fee) -20%
FE CROWN RATING:
4
5
r
l
t
6
r
l
t
7
r
l
t
8
Ju
Ju
Ju
Oc
Oc
Oc
Ap
Ap
Ap
t1
n1
n1
n1
n1
Oc
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Source: FE Analytics
18 trustnet.com/ FUND, PENSION, TRUST /
Pension
F&C RESPONSIBLE
INCOME More recently, given the ongoing
uncertainty surrounding Brexit
and the impact of weaker sterling
on domestic consumer spending,
Despite being limited in the type of stocks this fund can Stanley has favoured UK stocks
hold, it has still outperformed its sector in the short term with strong balance sheets and
attractive dividends.
E
Despite the fund’s ethical
THICAL FUNDS HAVE cent from the average IA UK Equity focus, a number of well-known
A REPUTATION FOR Income fund and enough to put it in income generators can be found
UNDERPERFORMING THEIR the top-quartile of its sector. among its top holdings, such as
MORE CONVENTIONAL PEERS as The fund opened for business in banks HSBC and Lloyds, insurers
they have a smaller universe of 1987. It invests in UK companies Legal & General and Prudential,
screened stocks to choose from. whose products and operations pharmaceutical GlaxoSmithKline,
As such, ethical funds account for “are considered to be of long-term consumer goods company
just £15bn of the total £1.2trn of benefit to the community at home Unilever, mobile phone operator
industry funds under management, and abroad”. Vodafone and miner BHP Billiton.
or around 1.3 per cent. The asset manager noted that F&C Responsible Income’s
However, there are a number of such companies will generally largest sector weighting is to
UK-focused strategies that have exclude those “considered to be financials, which represent 29.4
been able to outperform their involved with harmful products and per cent of the portfolio; followed
peers and the FTSE All Share index practices or trading extensively by industrials (11.9 per cent);
despite these restraints. with oppressive regimes”. telecommunications, media &
One such fund is F&C While this limits the type of stocks technology (10.7 per cent); and,
Responsible Income, formerly it can hold, avoiding companies services (10.5 per cent).
known as F&C Stewardship that focus on short-term gains at The fund can also hold ethically
Income, which offers exposure all costs helps to keep risk under screened corporate bonds to help it
to UK equity income with a more control and the fund is a top- meet its income target.
ethical focus. quartile performer over three years It is currently yielding 3.9 per
BMO Global Asset Management’s in terms of suppressing maximum cent, which is lower than the 4.12
ethical investing specialist drawdown and volatility. per cent of the sector average.
Catherine Stanley has headed
up the £330m fund since 2009.
She also runs its £418.4m sister
fund, F&C Responsible UK Equity PERFORMANCE OF FUND VS SECTOR AND INDEX OVER 3YRS
Growth.
40% IA UK Equity Income (21.59%)
F&C Responsible Income has
F&C Responsible UK Income (25.21%)
made 25.21 per cent over the past 30%
FTSE All Share (25.85%)
three years, slightly below the FTSE
All Share index’s gain of 25.85 per 20%
cent, but ahead of the 21.59 per
10%
FILE
0%
MANAGER: Catherine Stanley
LAUNCHED: 13/10/1987 -10%
FUND SIZE: £330m
OCF: 0.81% -20%
FE CROWN RATING:
5
r
n
g
t
c
6
r
n
g
t
c
7
r
n
g
t
c
Oc
Oc
Oc
Ap
Ap
Ap
De
De
De
b1
b1
b1
Au
Au
Au
Ju
Ju
Ju
Fe
Fe
Fe
Source: FE Analytics
trustnet.com 19/ FUND, PENSION, TRUST /
Trust
CAPITAL GEARING TRUST
Peter Spiller’s trust would add some stability to a portfolio with a high equity exposure
W
ITH CENTRAL BANKS market rallies, we believe it is an cent from the FTSE All Share and
AROUND THE WORLD attractive vehicle for investors a volatility score of 13.75 per cent.
expected to ratchet up looking for low-volatility long- It performed particularly well in
the speed of interest-rate hikes term capital growth.” 2008 and 2011 when markets fell,
this year, the bond market looks The trust’s main aim is to making top-quartile returns.
like a poor choice for anyone preserve capital over the short- However, it is a bottom-quartile
looking to shelter their cash term and generate strong risk- performer over one, three and five
from market volatility. However, adjusted returns over the long- years, failing to participate in as
Peter Spiller of the Capital term. As well as index-linked much of the equity market upside,
Gearing Trust is turning to index- bonds, it is 40 per cent weighted and was hit particularly hard in
linked government bonds – which to funds/equities, further 2013 around the time of the taper
currently account for 37 per cent diversified through underlying tantrum.
of the portfolio’s assets – in a bid exposure to property, equities, It may be worth pairing the
to maintain his solid track record private equity/hedge funds, loans investment company with other,
of preserving investors’ capital. and infrastructure. more out-and-out growth-
Index-linked government bonds It has an impressive record of orientated equity strategies
will protect against a rise in delivering solid absolute returns – though weightings will vary
inflation, something Spiller – along with considerably lower volatility depending on investor risk
with co-managers Alastair Laing than that of the equity market. tolerance.
and Chris Clothier – believes is For example, it has returned The trust’s shares are at a 2 per
likely to persist with global debt 105.94 per cent over the past cent premium, according to data
levels “unsustainably high”. 10 years, with an annualised from the Association of Investment
“Their view is that this can volatility of 8.92 per cent, Companies (AIC). It has ongoing
only be remedied by a sustained compared with a gain of 98.08 per charges of 0.86 per cent.
period of inflation and he points to
signs of rising wage growth in the
US as evidence that inflationary
pressures are building,” said PERFORMANCE OF TRUST VS INDEX OVER 10YRS
Kieran Drake, analyst at
120% Capital Gearing Trust (105.94%)
Winterflood Investment Trusts.
“While the significant allocation 100% FTSE All Share (98.08%)
to bonds will mean that the 80%
fund is likely to lag strong equity
60%
FILE 40%
MANAGERS: Peter Spiller, Alastair 20%
Laing & Chris Clothier
LAUNCHED: 1963 0%
PREMIUM/DISCOUNT: +2% -20%
OCF: 0.86% -40%
FE CROWN RATING:
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
b0
b0
b1
b1
b1
b1
b1
b1
b1
b1
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Source: FE Analytics
20 trustnet.comIN FOCUS
MISSED
THE BOAT?
Anyone who thinks Brexit worries have created a value opportunity in
UK small caps may be a year too late, warns Adam Lewis
I
NVESTORS IN UK the time to buy UK small caps and “Before we go any further, it is
SMALLER that the sector could be due a bout clear an allocation to UK small
COMPANY of volatility in the short-term. caps makes sense for any long-
INVESTMENT “Mid and small caps, more term investor,” Paget continues.
TRUSTS enjoyed a generally, witnessed a degree of “In fact, we would argue they
bumper 12 months last year, as the mean reversion following painful, should form a core allocation
sector continued its recovery from Brexit-induced declines in 2016 within a long-term portfolio.”
the shock of Brexit in 2016. while many active managers “However, over the shorter term,
Having made a meagre return of in the space boosted returns by we see a variety of risks, which
3.98 per cent in 2016, the average shifting their portfolios towards in the context of narrower than
IT Smaller Companies trust posted more internationally exposed average discounts, could dampen
gains of 27.62 per cent last year as stocks,” says Paget. appetite for small caps. For
UK domestic stocks rallied. example, rightly or wrongly, mid
As a result, the sector re-rated A MISSED OPPORTUNITY
heavily, with the average discount He points to the narrowing
narrowing from 14 per cent at of discounts over the last 12
the start of 2017 to its current months as evidence of what may
figure of 9 per cent. Alex Paget, have been a missed opportunity,
a research analyst at Kepler with the current figure standing
Partners, says that with the benefit below the five-year average of
of hindsight, early last year was about 11 per cent.
22 trustnet.com/ SECTOR PROFILE /
and small caps are likely to be the PERFORMANCE OF IA AND IT SECTORS
worst hit if there are any hiccups in
the ongoing Brexit negotiations.” 1yr (%) 3yr (%) 5yr (%) 10yr (%)
IA UK Smaller Companies 24.79 58.92 104.23 205.43
GROWING COMPLACENT
More generally, however, Paget IT UK Smaller Companies 24.6 67.05 117.7 244.57
says there is clearly a growing
sense of complacency among Source: FE Analytics
investors and this, combined
with high multiples across the
market, leaves equities open to a Innes Urquhart, a research doesn’t force managers to buy
correction if there is any change to analyst at Winterflood, says and sell shares based on inflows
the status quo. another reason why UK Smaller and outflows, works particularly
“Smaller companies, with their Companies trusts trade on wider well for UK smaller companies, in
higher-beta characteristics, would discounts is because of the particular at the micro cap level.
likely be hit hard in such an element of illiquidity in their This contention is backed up
event,” he says. assets. In this sense he says the by the figures. The average fund
Despite a significant re-rating in investment trust structure, which in the IA UK Smaller Companies
2017, the average IT UK Smaller sector made 24.79 per cent last
Companies discount remains year, marginally ahead of its
wider than the average for the
investment trust universe – 3.3
per cent at the end of 2017,
compared with 5.1 per cent 12
months earlier.
To put 2017’s figure in historical
context, the long-run average
discount for the investment
trust universe since the end of
1989 stands at 9.4 per cent. As
such, Winterflood also warns
that with 2018 marking the 10th
anniversary of the global financial
crisis, and with the bull market
now entering its ninth year, there
is reason to believe discounts
could widen again in the not-too-
distant future.
trustnet.com 23/ SECTOR PROFILE /
IT counterpart. Over longer PERFORMANCE OF TRUSTS VS INDEX OVER 10YRS
time periods, however, this
performance gap reverses, and 500% BlackRock Smaller Companies IT (423.86%)
does so significantly. The average
open-ended small cap fund has 400% Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust (487.15%)
made 58.92 per cent, 104.23 per
300%
cent and 205.43 per cent over FTSE All Share (98.08%)
three, five and 10 years, compared 200%
with 67.05 per cent, 117.7 per
cent and 244.57 per cent from its 100%
closed-ended counterpart.
0%
THE STOMACH FOR IT
-100%
“For those who can stomach
volatility and are willing to
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
b0
b0
b1
b1
b1
b1
b1
b1
b1
b1
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
Fe
focus on the long-term, we think
Aberforth Smaller Companies
is an interesting proposition at
this stage,” says Paget. “It is the There is clearly a growing sense
of complacency among investors
most value-orientated member of
either the open- or closed-ended
and this leaves equities open to a
sectors and is managed by a highly
experienced and well-resourced
team with a strong track record.”
“However, thanks to this correction
value style (and though it has
outperformed its benchmark), it (whether that be from an absolute Winterflood added The
has struggled to keep pace with or relative perspective) following Mercantile Investment Trust to
many of its peers over the past five a long period in the doldrums its mid and small cap exposure in
years (and in 2017 in particular). and, in such an environment, the 2018 rebalancing of its model
We think value investing is Aberforth should be a prime portfolio, replacing the River &
due a long-term return to form beneficiary.” Mercantile UK Micro Cap trust.
24 trustnet.com/ SECTOR PROFILE /
“We have switched to The best performer
Mercantile Investment Trust,
which we believe offers a better
RIVER & MERCANTILE UK MICRO CAP
value opportunity on its current River & Mercantile UK Micro Cap is the best performer in the IT UK Smaller
discount of 9 per cent,” says Companies sector over the last 12 months with a share price return of 63.83
Urquhart. While this discount per cent. It is also the second best performer in the sector over three years with
has narrowed considerably over gains of 115.9 per cent, which helps to explain why it moved from a 9 per cent
the last year, he adds that it has discount to a 16.2 per cent premium in the 12 months to the start of February.
an active buyback policy which The trust invests in UK companies with market capitalisations of less than
has seen 6.3 million shares, or £100m, which according to Winterflood makes it ideally suited to the investment
7 per cent of its share capital trust structure. At the time of going to press, River & Mercantile has just
announced George Ensor will be taking over from manager Philip Rodrigs after
worth £117m, bought back since the latter left the business following a professional conduct issue.
the start of 2017.
“Consequently we believe that
downside discount volatility is
relatively limited, which in our The discount play
opinion, is important at a time THE MERCANTILE INVESTMENT TRUST
of historically tight discounts
across the sector.” Unlike its ultra small-cap cousin, The Mercantile Investment Trust, run by JP
Winterflood also holds Mike Morgan Asset Management, targets UK mid and small caps. Its assets of £2.2bn
Prentis’s BlackRock Smaller mean it is currently the largest of those trusts investing predominately in the UK
Companies trust, the discount market. Although it sits in the IT All Companies sector, Winterflood added it to the
of which has also narrowed. small cap part of its model portfolio at the start of the year. The trust struggled
during the second half of 2016 due to an overweight position in UK consumers
However, at 14.8 per cent, he and underweight position in energy and resources at the time of Brexit, but it is
says it remains wider than its still ranked first quartile over one and three years.
five-year average, and wider than
the average figure for the sector.
“There are a number of The long-termer
strong trusts to choose from STANDARD LIFE UK SMALLER COMPANIES
in the sector,” Urquhart says.
“We rate Henderson Smaller While much attention has been focused on the short-term performance of UK
Companies, which has a great small caps, the product with the best 10-year track record is Harry Nimmo’s
long-term track record and Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust. The trust is up 487.15 per cent over
trades at a double-digit discount. this time, compared with 423.86 per cent from the second-best performer –
We also like the Standard Life BlackRock UK Smaller Companies. Nimmo uses Standard Life’s Matrix as part of
his investment process: a quant-based screening system that highlights high-
UK Smaller Companies Trust, quality businesses with a competitive advantage which should lead to consistent
although it has moved out to a and sustainable earnings growth. He is also known for running his winners:
small premium.” holding companies through their maturation for as long as he sees value.
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