FORECAST HOUSTON 2 EMPLOYMENT - Greater Houston Partnership
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HOUSTON
EMPLOYMENT
2022
FORECAST
December 2021
Publication Underwritten by:
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Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021
INTRODUCTION
The Partnership’s forecast calls for and professional, scientific and expansion, robust global trade,
Metro Houston to create 75,500 jobs technical services. Despite healthy energy consumption returning to
in ’22.1 Growth will occur in every job growth, Houston will likely pre-crisis levels, pent-up consumer
sector of the economy, including fall 10,000 to 20,000 jobs shy of demand, and local population growth.
several that struggled to create jobs pre-COVID employment levels when The recovery will continue to face
in recent years. The greatest gains ’22 comes to an end. headwinds, however. Elevated
will occur in administrative support inflation, supply chain woes, and
and waste management; government; Five factors will support job growth worker shortages will temper growth,
health care and social assistance; next year—the ongoing U.S. but they won’t halt it. There’s too
much pent-up demand for that. The
risks to growth tend to be more
METRO HOUSTON FORECAST, PROJECTED JOB GAINS/LOSSES
political than economic, like an
December ’21 - December ’22 escalation in tensions between China
Administrative Support
and the U.S., a massive cyberattack
Waste Management 9,000 on U.S. facilities, or widespread
social unrest, either at home or
Professional, Scientific, abroad. And one can’t rule out the
and Technical Services 8,700
possibility of a new COVID variant
Health Care and sweeping through the nation. While
Social Assistance 8,400
the Partnership acknowledges these
are valid concerns, in preparing this
Restaurants and Bars 7,200 forecast it chose to focus on the
economic factors that will impact
Government 7,100 Houston in ’22. Here’s what’s driving
Houston’s growth.
Transportation,
Warehousing, Utilities 6,500 U. S. Grow th
Manufacturing 5,000 As of November ’21, the nation had
recovered 18.2 million of the 22.4
Energy (Exploration,
4,000 million jobs lost in the early stages
Oil Field Services) of the pandemic. Pre-crisis, the
U.S. created around 200,000 jobs
Wholesale Trade 3,000 per month or 2.4 million per year.
Forecasters call for growth in ’22 to
Construction 2,700 track well above historic trends. The
consensus of the 47 professional
Other Services 2,300 forecasters surveyed in September by
the National Association for Business
Finance and Economics is for the U.S. to average
Insurance
2,100 321,000 net new jobs per month
in ’22. The economists surveyed
Educational Services 2,000 by The Wall Street Journal expect
350,000 jobs per month. The Survey
Retail Trade 2,000 of Professional Forecasters calls for
456,300. At any of those rates, the
Real Estate and U.S. would recoup all the jobs lost
Equipment Rentals 2,000
in the pandemic by December ’22
Arts, Entertainment, at the latest.
and Recreation 1,600
Global Trade
Hotels 1,200 Houston’s economy is deeply
tied to global trade and foreign
Information 700 investment. The region has trading
relationships with more than 200
1
Metro Houston, formally known as the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metropolitan Statistical Area, Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021 | 1
includes Austin, Brazoria, Chamber, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller Counties.
countries. Nearly 5,000 Houston- 98.5 million barrels per day (B/D) in from movie tickets, to dishwashers,
area firms are engaged in global February ’20 before falling by nearly to dental services. Metro Houston
commerce, including more than 18 million barrels over the next two added 91,100 residents in ’20,
2,300 local manufacturers. And more months. Demand began to recover boosting the region’s population to
than 1,700 firms in Houston report in May ’20 and has since accelerated over 7.1 million. After several years of
foreign ownership. and is expected to reach pre-COVID decline, inmigration, international and
levels next year. domestic, has picked up.
Census Bureau data shows Houston’s
exports in Q2/21 had already
Global Crude Demand Metro Houston Population
surpassed the previous peak,
Forecast, Million Barrels/Day Growth, ’000s
even with the current supply chain
issues making shipping products Natural
Quarter OPEC EIA Immigration Increase Total*
more difficult.
Q4/19 101.07 101.6 ’11 49.6 59.2 108.8
Metro Houston Exports* Q2/20 82.60 84.9 ’12 69.0 57.8 127.1
Second Quarter, $ Billions Q3/21 97.89 98.6 ’13 86.5 57.3 144.5
Q2/21 Q2/20 Q2/19 Q2/18 Q3/22 101.75 101.6 ’14 109.7 60.9 171.8
Sources: Organization for Petroleum
Exporting Countries, U.S. Energy
’15 108.4 62.7 171.4
34.8 21.4 30.7 26.9 Information Administration ’16 71.6 63.9 135.5
Pent- Up Consumer Demand ’17 33.3 59.1 92.6
*Origin of Movement Series
Source: U.S. Census Bureau ’18 21.9 54.0 76.0
Consumers are flush with cash
’19 37.2 51.2 88.5
As the global economy continues and ready to spend. Early in the
to recover, Houston’s exports will pandemic, households saved 26.1 ’20 44.3 46.7 91.1
continue to grow. The International percent of their disposable incomes. *Columns may not sum to total due to
rounding errors and data omissions
Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global As of Q3/21, that had slipped to 8.9 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
growth at 4.9 percent in ’22. The percent but remains well above the
World Trade Organization (WTO) 7.5 percent average in the five years An improving job market, low cost
expects global merchandise trade prior to the pandemic. Household of living, and high quality of life
to increase by 4.7 percent in ’22, up balance sheets are also in better should boost Houston’s population
from 4.1 percent in its March forecast. shape. Debt service as a percent by 100,000 residents or more in ’22.
of disposable personal income is at One should be mindful, however, that
Energy Demand its lowest point since the Federal if population growth follows historic
Reserve began keeping records 40 trends, half those gains will come
Houston is the leading domestic
years ago. And consumers are sitting from the net natural increase (i.e.,
and international center for virtually
on massive savings, as much as $1.6 births minus deaths), and the other
every segment of the energy
trillion according to a recent report in half from in-migration (one-fourth
industry—exploration and production,
The Wall Street Journal. international, one-fourth domestic).
transmission, marketing, service,
trading, supply, offshore drilling, and Put another way, only half the
Local Population Grow th
technology. Global crude demand region’s growth comes via the moving
drives a major portion of Houston’s A growing population supports a van, the other half comes from the
economy. Crude consumption topped growing demand for everything maternity ward.
HOUSTON’S RECOVERY TO DATE
As of September ’21, Metro Houston 90.1 percent of their losses, retail 86.5 wholesale trade belong to that group.
had recouped 245,600 jobs, or percent, other services (i.e., personal They began to shed jobs well before
roughly 68 percent of the 361,400 lost services), 94.0 percent. COVID-19 arrived and continued
in the early stages of the pandemic. to shed them after the economy
The sectors most impacted by social For industries struggling prior to reopened. Those sectors account for
distancing are near full recovery. the pandemic, COVID-19 made over half the jobs needed to close the
Restaurants and bars have recouped their situations worse. Energy, gap and recapture its pre-pandemic
manufacturing, construction, and
2 | Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021 2
OPEC = Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries; IEA = International Energy Agency; EIA =
U.S. Energy Information Administration.
peak. The good news is that the for what they say about Houston’s this forecast went to press, crude
outlook for all four has improved in recovery. Those indicators are traded above $80 per barrel, a level
recent months and they’re taking the spot price for West Texas not seen since the fall of ’14. Higher
steps, albeit tiny ones, toward Intermediate, the Houston Purchasing prices are finally bringing relief to
recouping their losses. Managers Index, Houston/Galveston Houston’s energy industry. In Q3/21,
customs district traffic, and claims for the major oil companies reported
The Partnership interviewed dozens unemployment benefits. their highest quarterly profits in years.
of individuals, reviewed scores of
reports, read hundreds of articles, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the In October, the Houston Purchasing
and analyzed countless data sets U.S. benchmark for light, sweet crude, Managers Index (PMI) registered
in preparing this forecast. In the has traded at $70 or higher on the 61.0, the highest reading since
process, four indicators stood out NYMEX since mid-September. As March ’19. Readings above 50
indicate growth over the next three
to four months; readings below 50
suggest contraction. October marks
PROGRESS TO DATE, METRO HOUSTON EMPLOYMENT the 15th consecutive month it has
registered above 50. The string of
Jobs Left plus-50 readings indicates Houston’s
to Recoup recovery has been underway
for some time.
115,800
Metro Houston averaged 5,000 initial
32.0% weekly claims for unemployment
benefits in the month of October.
245,600 That’s down from 9,800 the same
month in ’20 and from 65,000 per
68.0% Jobs Recovered week in April ’20. Fewer workers are
To Date filing continued claims as well, just
over 28,000 in September ’21, down
from 195,000 in September ’20. The
ranks of Houston’s unemployed are
approaching pre-pandemic levels.
Through the first nine months of ’21,
the Houston/Galveston Customs
HOUSTON PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX District handled over $123.2 billion
Above 50 = Broad Economic Expansion in exports, up 33.5 percent from the
same period in ’20. The district is only
70 $4.0 billion from passing the total
exports ($127.0 billion) for all of ’19.
65 At the current pace, Houston should
Expansion
finish ’21 with a record volume of
60 exports passing through the district
(+$150 billion). The export data
55 indicates the strength of demand
overseas for the crude, refined
Index
50
products, chemicals, and equipment
that Houston manufacturers produce.
Contraction
45
40
35
30
’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22
Source: Institute for Supply Management-Houston
Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021 | 3
METRO HOUSTON JOB GROWTH, December '21 to December '22, ('000s)
117.4 116.8
106.8
91.6 91.0 89.8
83.0 82.8 80.7
75.5
60.1 54.4 54.4
50.7
39.4
21.5
1.6
-1.4 -2.4 -2.4
-11.4
-110.6
-206.6
’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21* ’22**
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission *September YTD **Partnership forecast
HOW WILL ’22 COMPARE
Only eight times in the past 21 years to be one of the better years for job Houston’s economy. A clearer
has annual growth exceeded 75,500 growth in Houston. understanding of the trends driving
jobs, the Partnership’s forecast growth (or losses) should help the
for ’22. Those eight years tend to One Final Note business community to make better
coincide with rising oil prices or investment, staffing and purchase
The purpose of this forecast isn’t to
prices at an unsustainably high level. decisions. Given the uncertainty
score a bullseye with the numbers,
Factor out the booms (and the busts), surrounding the economy, the more
though the Partnership would be
and metro Houston typically creates insights, the better. Now the details
pleased if it did. Rather, the goal
65,000 to 70,000 jobs in a “normal” behind the numbers.
is to highlight the forces shaping
year. Measured against that, ’22 looks
ENERGY
Since early October, West Texas has changed in recent years. five episodes in which crude prices
Intermediate (WTI) has traded at $80 have risen or fallen 40 percent or more
per barrel on the spot market. In the Those changes are well-documented, over less than six months.
past, crude trading at that level would but to understand how they will
lead to a surge in drilling activity, determine industry’s course over Volatility has led to more companies
a wave of equipment orders, firms the next 12-18 months it helps hedging their production. A recent
scrambling to find geologists, and to restate them. analysis by World Oil found that 90
conversations with real estate brokers percent of oil and gas firms hedged
Oil prices have become more volatile, their production in ’20, up from 73
about the need to lease more office
even by energy industry standards. percent the year before. Hedging
space. None of that has happened,
Since ’14, the industry has endured locks in the price oil companies
which shows how much the industry
4 | Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021will receive for crude delivered at a aggressive stances on combatting Against this backdrop, the industry
specific date in the future. global warming. ExxonMobil and must deal with a looming crisis
Chevron suffered shareholder in Europe. Low inventories and
The industry has fallen out of favor rebellions from climate activists and expectations of a colder than normal
with Wall Street. Oil firms were able to disgruntled institutional investors winter have tripled natural gas prices
rapidly grow production through most over the oil giants’ plodding adoption on the continent in recent weeks.
of the last decade because investors of strategies for a low-carbon future. Utilities which can substitute oil for
were willing to lend them funds to More recently, one of Shell Oil’s major natural gas are doing so, but this has
drill more oil wells. Between 2010 investors called for the corporation driven up the global price of crude.
and 2020, the industry raised over to spin off its liquefied natural gas,
$300 billion from outside investors, renewables, and marketing businesses The good news is that global demand
according to a study by Deloitte. But into a standalone company. will soon recover to pre-crisis levels,
promised returns never materialized, keeping prices well above $52 per
so investors pulled back. Drillers must barrel, the average break-even point
now exercise “capital discipline,” U.S. Crude Production and Oil for a well drilled in the U.S. Crude
funding any exploration activities out and Gas Employment* will likely trade well above that in the
of internal cash flow. The impact can Employment (000s) coming months. In early November,
be seen in the decline in the rig count, the futures strip had WTI trading on
which began in December ’18. Avg Change the NYMEX at $71 per barrel or higher
Annual As of from
Year MB/D December Prior Year
through December ’22. EIA forecasts
The industry has become more crude to average $68 per barrel in ’22,
productive. Drillers have a better ’14 8.8 535.8 34.0 still high enough to earn a profit on the
understanding of shale geology, typical new well.
’15 9.4 435.6 -100.2
drilling equipment is more efficient,
and firms are more selective about ’16 8.8 355.3 -80.3 All this bodes well for Houston’s
where they drill. According to the U.S. ’17 9.4 384.6 29.3 energy sector. Higher demand will
Energy Information Administration ’18 10.9 423.1 38.5 sustain oil prices near their current
(EIA), initial production from wells level. That will boost U.S. drilling
’19 12.3 393.6 -29.5
drilled in the Permian Basin and activity leading to new equipment
Bakken nearly doubled from October ’20 11.3 323.2 -70.4 orders and additional hiring. But the
’16 to October ’21. Net Change Since Dec ‘14 early ’20s won’t look like the early ’10s.
* Exploration and production and oil field services Production growth, equipment orders,
The industry has learned to do Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration,
and job gains will be more subdued.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
more with less. From December ’14 The forecast calls for Houston’s
to December ‘19, upstream energy energy sector to add 4,000 jobs in ‘22.
(exploration, production, oil field
services) shed roughly one-third of
its U.S. workforce yet grew domestic
production by 3.4 million barrels over U.S. RIG COUNT v. WTI SPOT PRICE
the same period. Rig Count WTI ($/Barrel)
2,500 120
Climate change and looming peak
demand now dominate long-term
planning. Consumption of crude will 2,000 96
likely peak within the next 15 to 20
WTI Spot Price
U.S. Rig Count
years, according to most scenarios.
Some firms, like BP and Shell, have 1,500 72
sold off acreage and assets to focus
on non-fossil fuel technologies. 1,000 48
Others, like ConocoPhillips, have
snapped up acreage, ensuring
crude and natural gas remain in their 500 24
portfolios well into the future.
0 0
Shareholders continue to pressure ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’ 21 ’ 22
energy companies to take more
Source: Baker Hughes
Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021 | 5MANUFACTURING
Houston manufacturers have faced four that respondents named were: The flotilla of ships waiting off the
numerous challenges in recent coast of California to unload their
• Increased raw material costs (86.4
years. Hurricane Harvey struck in cargoes underscores the problems
percent)
’17, flooding much of the region. with supply chains. Long-distance
Production was offline for weeks at • Attracting and retaining a quality trucking costs have risen 24.1
some facilities and months at others. workforce (80.0 percent) percent since April ’20, according to
In ’18, President Trump launched a • Supply chain challenges (79.8 the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And
trade war with China, the region’s top percent) Moody’s has incorporated several
trading partner back then. Houston’s high-frequency metrics to create a
exports to China fell by $482 million • Transportation and logistics costs supply chain stress index. In normal
that year and another $2.8 billion the (69.1 percent) times, the index should be at 100. In
following. In ’19, the energy industry mid-October, the index hit 125.
Raw material costs have skyrocketed.
scaled back on drilling. Orders for
Since April ’20, the global price of Manufacturers are also dealing with
rigs, pumps and pipes plummeted.
copper has risen 85.3 percent, the a lack of shipping containers, making
In ’20, the pandemic arrived on
price of aluminum 78.3 percent, and it more difficult to get their product to
Houston’s doorstep. Consumers
cotton 59.5 percent. Although lumber market. Throughout the year, shipping
shut their wallets and factories
prices have fallen considerably in lines reposition those big, steel boxes
closed their doors. The component
recent months, they’re still up 38 to where they are most needed and
of the Houston PMI that measures
percent from April ’20. can fetch the highest rates. Asian
production fell to 34.5, the lowest
point on record. exporters, desperate to get their
The extent of the worker shortage
products into the U.S., are bidding
can be seen in the latest Job
In ’21 winter Storm Uri wreaked up rates. The Wall Street Journal
Openings and Labor Turnover
havoc on the region’s petrochemical reports the cost to ship goods from
Survey (JOLTS) compiled by the
industry when it swept through Asia to the U.S. is now four to ten
U.S. Department of Labor. As of
Texas. Many companies declared times the cost prior to the pandemic,
September ’22, there were 897,000
force majeure when power outages so shippers are repositioning as
manufacturing job openings across
and frozen equipment prevented many empty containers overseas
the U.S. The nation averaged
them from delivering on their as possible. Prior to the pandemic,
394,000 openings per month in the
contracts. At one point, 45 percent the Port of Houston handled about
five years leading up to the pandemic.
of U.S. PVC capacity, 55 percent 36,000 empty containers each
of chlorine capacity, 60 percent of
caustic soda capacity, 73 percent of
polyethylene capacity, 80 percent Houston Manufacturing Employment*
of paraxylene capacity, and 84 Jobs % of Total
percent of polypropylene capacity
was offline. The freeze hit at a time Chemicals, Plastics, Fuels 57,429 27.4
when inventories were already low. Machinery, Computers, Electrical Equipment 56,612 27.0
Nine months later, some plants are
Fabricated Metal Products 44,065 21.0
still struggling to return to pre-freeze
Food & Beverges 15,800 7.5
production levels.
Miscellaneous Products 9,907 4.7
Now, the industry must deal with Primary Metals 9,870 4.7
a host of other issues. In a Q3/21
Paper & Wood Products 9,517 4.5
survey, the National Manufacturers
Association (NAM) asked its members Transportation Equipment 4,333 2.1
to identify the biggest challenges Textiles & Apparel 2,310 1.1
facing their firms. Respondents could Total 209,843 100.0
select more than one issue. The top
*as of Q2/21
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
6 | Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021month. The ratio of empty exports to recover before resuming its employment to rise over the next
to empty imports held close to 1:1. slide in August ’19. The pandemic four quarters.
But that has shifted dramatically in accelerated the trend. The sector lost
recent months. From June ’21 through 26,000 jobs during the early stages An increase in drilling activity should
September of ’21, the port averaged of the pandemic and continued to lift the demand for oil field equipment
66,000 empty containers per month. shed workers even as the economy in ’22. Houston’s chem plants sell
The ratio of empty exports to empty reopened. The sector began to much of their production overseas, so
imports is now 5:1. recover earlier this year but will likely they should benefit from the increase
take several years to return to its in global growth. Since January of this
Manufactures also face a shortage previous peak. Nearly 18,000 of the year, 53 companies have announced
of truck drivers to get their products 21,400 jobs left to recoup are tied to plans to expand or establish
to market. The industry was short oil and gas, and drilling activity is not manufacturing plants in Houston.
80,000 truckers prior to the expected to return to pre-pandemic They will need to hire workers to
pandemic. That shortage will soon hit levels for several years. run those plants. And Houston
100,000, according to the American will continue to add residents,
Trucking Association. Despite these challenges, benefitting the food processors in the
manufacturers remain optimistic. In region. Bottom line, the outlook for
Manufacturing employment in its Q3/21, 87.5 percent of participants manufacturing in Houston continues
Houston peaked in December ’14 in a NAM survey responded that the to improve. The forecast calls for the
at 261,000 jobs. It trended down outlook for their firms was positive sector to add 5,000 jobs in ’22.
following the fracking bust, bottoming leading into ’22. The majority expect
out in December ’16, then struggled sales, production, wages, and
CONSTRUCTION
The construction sector’s woes Of f ice The pipeline may have finally begun
predate the pandemic. COVID-19 to dry up. Most of the 3.7 MSF of
only made matters worse. Though Demand for office space peaked office space under construction
recognized as an “essential industry” in ’14. Since then, the market has in Q3/21 will deliver in late ’21 or
by the U.S. Department of Homeland logged negative absorption in 18 out early ’22. As of late October, only
Security (which allowed construction of the past 28 quarters. Houston’s 15 office projects comprising less
to continue during the pandemic), overall vacancy rate now approaches than 1.7 MSF of space have broken
many developers suspended work that of the 1980s. The market has ground in ’21. Construction is falling
or cancelled projects anyway. The over 71.2 million square feet (MSF) to levels not seen since the 1980s
outlook for construction has improved of vacant or available space. That’s oil bust. Demand will remain weak,
since then, but it now faces a new the equivalent of 50 empty Williams however, as tenants with hybrid work
set of challenges—shortages of Tower office buildings. schedules are still assessing how to
materials, extended delivery delays, best use their existing space.
Lease rates have been flat or
soaring prices, labor shortages,
declining in Houston since the Industrial/ Warehouse
and workers’ resistance to vaccine
end of ’14. Developers have been
mandates. Construction firms seem to
slow to read the market or have Developers have delivered over
be taking these challenges in stride,
simply chosen to ignore the signals. 122.0 MSF of industrial space since
though. They remain optimistic about
They’ve added another 19.5 million Q1/14, or 17 percent of the region’s
’22. To understand the industry’s
square feet of office space since current inventory (718.9 MSF). The
pain, it helps to understand the state
the start of ’16. space was built to serve the needs
of Houston’s real estate markets.
of e-commerce, industrial suppliers,
Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021 | 7third party logistics firms, and retail Multifamily Several factors are contributing to
distribution centers. multifamily’s banner year. Job growth
’21 has been one of the best years has picked up. Population growth is
The market had been leaning on record for Houston’s multifamily likely stronger than the U.S. Census
toward overbuilding for some time. market. Occupancy, absorption, and Bureau has reported. Would-be
Delivery of new space has exceeded rents are up across all classes of homeowners, priced out of the single-
absorption five out of the past six property. Landlords have been able family market, are opting to rent
years. The vacancy rate for the to scale back the incentives they apartments instead. Renters, weary of
newest Class A space, that built since offer to attract new tenants. And sharing quarters with a roommate, are
’19, hit 25.0 percent in Q4/21, well construction of new properties has splitting up. And young adults who
above the average of 7.4 percent for finally tapered off. moved in with their parents during
the overall market. the early stages of the pandemic are
All that reflects a dramatic shift in
finally moving out.
The pace of construction has tapered, conditions over the past 12 months.
though, with only 14.7 MSF under From ’14 to ’20, developers overbuilt. It’s unclear how long market
construction in Q3/21, down from Occupancy would briefly top 90 conditions will lean in the landlord’s
18.6 MSF in Q3/20. And Q3/21 marks percent, then thousands of new units favor, but as of late October
the second consecutive quarter in would flood the market and the rate more than 13,500 units were
more than three years that demand would fall below 90 again. 3 But that under construction with another
for industrial space (11.6 MSF) changed earlier this year. Houston 28,600 announced or in the early
outpaced new space delivered to the emerged from the early stages of the planning stages.
market (6.0 MSF) pandemic with considerable pent-up
demand. Apartment Data Services Single-Family
Retail reports the market has absorbed
35,544 units in the 12 months ending Single-family is also enjoying a
Retail describes a type of commercial banner year. Research firm Zonda/
October ‘21. That’s more than
property, not the function that occurs Metrostudy reports builders are on
were absorbed in ’18, ’19 and ’20
within it. A retail center might include track to start over 43,000 homes
combined. Such strong demand is
a clinic (health care), branch bank in ’21. That’s the highest level
driving up rents, with Class A rates
(finance), pizza parlor (restaurant), of starts since the mid-00s, the
up 16.5 percent and Class B up 11.6
fitness center (recreation), liquor store heyday of the housing boom fueled
percent compared to October ’20.
(retail), and a dry cleaner (personal by subprime lending. This time is
And would-be tenants are finding
services). The vacancy rate, while different, however. Lending standards
fewer deals. In Q3/21, only 35 percent
up from pre-pandemic levels, has are much stricter and there’s less
of properties offer an incentive
hovered between 5.0 and 6.0 percent speculation in the market.
(deposit, wavers, floor plan upgrades,
since the beginning of ’17.
etc.), down from 69 percent at
Several factors account for the
Developers have added 5.5 to 7.7 the end of Q4/20.
boom. Mortgage rates remain at
MSF of retail space per year over historic lows making payments more
the past five years. In Q3/21, 4.1 MSF Houston Multifamily Trends affordable. Millennials are finally
was under construction, slightly becoming homeowners and driving
below the recent trend. Pandemic- Units Units Avg. Ann up demand. The adoption of hybrid
induced delays account for part Year Added Absorbed Occupancy
work schedules is driving the need
of the slow down, that and retail’s for dedicated home offices. And
’12 5,954 14,953 89.4
uncertain future as more consumers there’s a dearth of resale homes
turn to e-commerce. ’13 12,314 16,080 90.4
on the market.
’14 17,472 15,788 91.0
There’s a common phrase in ’15 20,679 13,289 90.4 In the 12 months ending October ’21,
commercial real estate: “retail brokers have closed on more than
’16 21,702 5,028 88.3
follows rooftops.” The housing 130,000 re-sale homes (single-family,
boom underway in Houston’s ’17 13,980 17,328 89.3
duplexes, condos and townhomes).
distant suburbs will provide new ’18 5,655 8,749 89.6 At the current rate, Houston has less
opportunities for retail in ’22. Overall ’19 17,095 14,534 89.3 than a two-month supply of homes
population growth and job creation ’20 21,781 11,574 88.4 for sale. Six months is the norm. High
will also drive the demand for retail demand and limited supply have
‘21 Oct
space in the coming year. YTD
12,825 35,544 91.9 driven up prices. The median price
of a single-family home has risen by
Source: Apartment Data Services $100,000 in the past seven years.
8 | Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021 3
When occupancy rates top 90, that indicates it’s a landlord friendly market. When they fall
below 90 percent, that indicates a tenant friendly market.SEPTEMBER MEDIAN PRICE, SINGLE-FAMILY HOME, $ surveys from over 2,000 real estate
professionals, including investors,
305,000 fund managers, developers, property
265,995 companies, lenders, brokers, advisers
226,500 235,000 240,000
205,000 218,245 and consultants.
HOUSTON CONSTRUCTION
CONTRACTS AWARDED,
SEPTEMBER YTD, $ BILLIONS*
’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21
17.822 17.797
Sources: Houston Association of Realtors
17.022 17.112
Demand for new and resale homes The industry faces several challenges
may have plateaued. A few builders as it enters the new year. Supply
have brought back incentive chain issues continue to dog the
packages to help close deals. industry. Builders report delays of
Others have recognized the need four to six months on appliances,
to increase brokers’ commissions to windows, cabinets, and marble ’17 ’18 ’19 ’21
maintain the current pace of sales. countertops. Labor, always short
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
And the resale market recorded 1.8 in construction, is even more so * Does not include streets, bridges,
months of inventory in October ‘21, now. And vaccine mandates from utilities and non-structural projects
low by historic standards but an Washington don’t sit well with some
improvement from 1.3 months in May. construction workers, including a To summarize, Houston’s office
Home supply averaged 3.7 months in few who have threatened to quit and glut will dampen the need for new
the five years prior to the pandemic. find employment in another sector or office construction. The demand of
with another contractor not subject e-commerce and container traffic
Three high-profile projects broke to the mandate.
ground in ’21 that will help sustain at the port will spur the need for
construction activity over the Despite the headwinds, the outlook additional warehouse and distribution
next several years: for construction has improved, albeit space. As the housing boom
marginally, since the first of the year. continues in the distant suburbs,
• The Texas Medical Center broke developers will break ground on
ground on TMC3, a 37-acre The September report from Dodge
Data indicates construction activity retail centers to serve these more
campus that will include shared remote populations. The demand for
and proprietary research centers, year-to-date is up 5.0 percent in
the first nine months of this year. single-family homes remains steady,
multidisciplinary labs, healthcare so construction will likely maintain
institutions, a hotel and conference That’s much improved from Q1/21
when activity year-to-date was its current pace. Homebuilders have
center, a residential tower, retail, enough orders on the books and
restaurants, and a unique double- down 14.2 percent. Through the first
eight months of ’21, City of Houston potential buyers on waiting lists to
helix green space. remain busy well into ’22. Multifamily
building permits were flat compared
• Hines broke ground on Levit to the prior year. That’s much construction will rise to meet the
Green, a 53-acre development just improved from Q1/21 when activity growing demand. The outlook for
east of the Texas Medical Center year-to-date was down 30.8 percent. heavy/industrial construction remains
that will offer research facilities, cloudy, but engineering/procurement/
office, residential, shopping and Outside investors view of Houston construction firms remain optimistic
dining, outdoor amenities and real estate has been improving about their prospects in the new year.
green space for Houston’s biotech, over time. In “Emerging Trends in The Partnership expects the pace of
life sciences and medical research Real Estate 2022,” the Urban Land construction will pick up marginally
communities. Institute (ULI) ranked the outlook next year. The forecast calls for the
for Houston real estate 24th out sector to create 2,700 jobs in ’22.
• Midway broke ground on East
of the 80 U.S. and Canadian cities
River, a 150-acre site near
in the study. That’s a significant
downtown that will include office
improvement over ’21 when Houston
and retail space, a green space
ranked 52nd, and in ’18, when
plaza, multifamily housing, a
Houston ranked as low as 60th. The
cinema, nine-hole golf course,
ranking is based on interviews and
restaurants, and bars.
Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021 | 9WHOLESALE TRADE
Houston’s wholesale trade sector has The supply chain issues affecting A full recovery in Houston’s wholesale
been one of the slowest to recover the broader economy hit wholesale sector depends on several factors:
from the COVID-induced recession. especially hard. As the economy • Growth in the domestic rig count.
As of mid-September, the industry reopened, they found themselves As noted earlier, drilling activity
had recouped less than 15 percent short on inventory and unable to should pick up in ’22.
of its initial job losses. Even though secure supplies from manufactures
job growth picked up mid-year, and other vendors. In September, • Growth of the U.S. economy. As
wholesale will be among the last the wholesale inventory-to-sales noted earlier, the U.S. economy
sectors to return to pre-pandemic ratio was at its second lowest level should grow at 3.5 percent or
employment levels. since October ’14. The industry better in ’22.
is also dealing with a shortage of • Resolution of the supply chain
To understand why the recovery has freight handlers, forklift operators issues plaguing the economy.
been so slow, it helps to understand and truck drivers. Media reports suggest this may
the role wholesale trade plays in the
take 12 to 18 months to fix.
region’s economy. Consumers buy Wholesale trade in Houston faces an
from retailers, like H-E-B, Kroger, extra challenge—much of it is tied • Investments in local roads and
Walmart, and Academy Sports & to the oil and gas industry. They sell port infrastructure. The Port of
Outdoors. Businesses, institutions, directly to the oil field service firms Houston Authority has embarked
and the government buy from and drillers, or to the manufacturers on a billion-dollar project to
wholesalers. Some of the larger of oil field and drilling equipment. deepen and widen the Houston
wholesalers in Houston include Sysco As noted earlier, the domestic rig Ship Channel and expand and
(restaurant supplies), MRC Global count peaked in December ’18. improve the region’s container
(pipes, valves, flanges), Cardinal Manufacturing and wholesale terminals.
Health (medical supplies), W.W. employment peaked seven months • Companies replacing just-in-time
Grainger (industrial equipment), and later in July ’19. inventory systems with just-in-
The Grocer Supply Co. (groceries, case systems. Given current
household sundries.) Wholesalers supply chain woes, companies
purchase in large quantities will need to carry higher levels of
from manufacturers, hold those inventory in the future.
inventories in their warehouses,
then break those goods and U.S. WHOLESALERS INVENTORY TO SALES RATIOS*
supplies into smaller quantities for
delivery to their clients. Over 11,000 1.70
wholesale establishments served
Houston as of Q2/21.
1.60
The fortunes of the wholesale sector
track those of the overall economy.
1.50
Like so many other industries, it was
caught unawares at the start of the
Ratios
pandemic. The sales-to-inventory 1.40
ratio shot up to unhealthy levels.
To survive, wholesalers had to 1.30
cut costs, which meant laying off
workers. In Houston, one in every
1.20
12 lost their jobs. They also cut back
on their own orders and sold down
their inventories. 1.10
’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’ 21 ’ 22
Source: U.S. Census Bureau *seasonally adjusted
10 | Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021• Traditional growth drivers. The demand for wholesale products that more factors will lean positive
Houston should see population, won’t abate in ’22. If anything, it than negative and that the region’s
employment, foreign trade, and will accelerate, especially if the wholesale trade sector will add
GDP continue to expand. energy industry resumes drilling. another 3,000 jobs in ’22.
The Partnership’s forecast assumes
TRANSPORTATION,
WAREHOUSING,
UTILITIES
The sector includes all modes of up from 15 percent in January but the trucking jobs lost in the crisis.
transportation (air, pipelines, rail, still insufficient to spur a rebound Employment is at a record high.
trucking, water), support services in global travel. International traffic
(freight forwarding, packing, and should soon get a boost, however, Houston continues to add industrial
crating), warehousing and utilities. since the White House recently lifted space. The boom has been fed by
Each is recovering at a different pace, COVID-19 travel restrictions for fully consumers embracing e-commerce,
but in the aggregate, employment vaccinated international visitors. But Houston’s growth as a logistics hub,
now exceeds pre-crisis levels due a full recovery is several years away. and the surge in container traffic at
to the strong growth in trucking According to the International Air the port. This in turn has fed the need
and warehousing. Travel Association (IATA), domestic for more warehouse workers.
travel won’t fully recover until ’23,
Houston Airports should handle Trucking is the critical link in the
international not until ’24.
over 39.0 million passengers in ’21, supply chain. Cargo may arrive in
up from the 24.7 million in ’20 but Through the first nine months of Houston by air, rail, or water, but
well below the 59.8 million of ’19. ’21, tonnage through the Port of a truck will haul it from the port or
Passenger traffic began to recover Houston was down 4.8 percent from airport to its final destination, either
in the late spring as U.S. vaccination ’20, the drop attributed to reduced across town or across the state.
rates topped 50 percent, families shipments of crude and refined The demand for drivers will remain
booked summer vacations, and products. Container traffic, however, high well after the supply chain
business travelers grew more was on pace to set a record in ’21 issues are resolved.
comfortable with flying again. The with no indication the pace will let up
Though over half the nation’s
late-summer Delta surge briefly in ’22. Manufacturers, wholesalers,
pipelines are controlled from
slowed the recovery, but passenger and retailers need to replenish their
Houston, employment has remained
traffic picked up again in the fall. inventories and are driving the surge.
flat for the last 20 years. Automation
Year-to-date, containerized imports
Airlines are calling back employees and economies of scale have curbed
were up nearly 30 percent, more
on furlough and looking to hire the need for additional manpower.
than offsetting the nearly 15 percent
thousands more to handle the The region is unlikely to see any
drop in exports. The region is clearly
anticipated increase in passenger employment growth in this sector in
benefitting from the investment in
traffic. As of September ’21, domestic ’22. The same goes for local utilities.
new cranes and wharf-side facilities
traffic was at 67.9 percent of the Port of Houston Authority has The shift toward e-commerce and
pre-pandemic levels. Last September, made in recent years. home deliveries has kept Houston’s
domestic traffic was at 40.7 percent
couriers and package delivery
of the previous year’s pace. Nationally, trucking volumes remain
services busy throughout the
6 percent below pre-crisis levels,
International traffic has been slower pandemic. There’s no sign that will let
according to the American Trucking
to recover. In an October survey by up, even as the pandemic subsides.
Association (ATA). There just aren’t
Morning Consult, only 30 percent enough drivers. Despite that, The outlook for transportation,
of respondents indicated they Houston has managed to recoup all warehousing and utilities is among
were comfortable flying overseas,
Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021 | 11the brightest of all sectors. IATA PORT OF HOUSTON CONTAINER TRAFFIC 12-Month Moving Total
expects air passenger traffic to
pick up in ’22. The WTO forecasts
3.5
continued growth in global trade.
Local merchants need to restock
their shelves, wholesalers their 3.0
warehouses, and manufactures their
Millions of TEUs
inventories. And U.S. online sales are
2.5
forecast to leap from $993 billion in
’21 to over $1 trillion in ’22.
2.0
The transportation/warehousing
sector will record strong job growth
well beyond next year. Only another 1.5
recession could disrupt its path, and
that’s unlikely for at least the next few 1.0
years. The forecast calls for Houston ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’ 21 ’ 22
to add 6,500 transportation jobs in Source: Port of Houston Authority TEU = Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit
the coming year.
RETAIL
Retail sales now exceed their U.S. retail sales topped $620 billion and mass merchandise stores nearing
pre-pandemic level. Consumers have the first nine months of ’21, up 13.1 historic levels. Retailers like Macy’s,
fatter wallets and lower debt levels. percent from $548 billion in the Marshalls, T.J. Maxx, Kohl’s and Foot
Only a handful of stores declared comparable period the year prior. Locker, which struggled in the early
bankruptcy in ’21. But online shopping Purchases were up across all sectors, stages of the pandemic, reported
continues to make inroads into brick- with clothing, sporting goods and rebounds in sales in ’21.
and-mortar retail, and supply chain home furnishing logging the greatest
bottlenecks and labor shortages percentage gains. In-store foot traffic The website retaildive.com tracked
weigh on retail perhaps more than is finally approaching pre-pandemic 30 bankruptcies in ’20, including
another sector. levels, with supermarkets, hardware major brands like Brooks Brothers,
HOUSTON RETAIL FOOT TRAFFIC, OCT '21 AS PERCENT OF OCT '19
110 110 107
102 102 106 105 102
98
87 90
Apparel Dining Fitness Groceries Hardware Health Spa/ Superstores Office Electronics All
Beauty Supplies Categories
Source: Placer.ai
12 | Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021JCPenny, Lord & Taylor, Pier 1, and And like other sectors, retail for one in every 20 dollars spent
Stein Mart. Through August of this is struggling to find workers. on a retail purchase. In Q2/21, it
year, the site had identified only eight Nationwide, retail had nearly 1.1 accounted for one in every eight. One
bankruptcies, L’Occitane being the million job openings in September, offsetting factor has been Houston’s
only prominent brand. The trend in according to the U.S. Department housing boom. As noted earlier,
retail has clearly shifted from sad of Labor. To combat the shortage, the region will likely add around
closings to grand openings. The Daily Amazon, Best Buy and Target have 43,000 single-family homes this
in Retail, a retail research platform, all raised their minimum wages to $15 year and a comparable number next.
counted 5,725 store opening an hour. Walmart matched that for Home sales drive the need for new
announcements nationwide through many of its employees, but still has a furniture, lawn and garden tools, and
Q3/21. That’s nearly double the 2,890 starting wage of $11 per hour. consumer electronics. The residents
closings the firm identified over the will also need to shop for groceries,
same period a year earlier. Retail lost more jobs (99,500) in pet supplies, gasoline, alcoholic
Houston than any other sector in beverages and to fill doctors’
Consumer purchasing power the early stages of the pandemic. prescriptions. Houston will see more
continues to grow. In Q2/21, U.S. As of mid-September, the sector retail centers in the distant suburbs
personal income was nearly $950 had recouped 86.5 percent of over the next few years.
billion (4.8 percent) above ’20 levels. those losses. But that may be a bit
(Comparable data for metro Houston misleading since retail employment The forecast assumes the
is not available.) always surges in the fall as merchants fundamentals that traditionally drive
hire temporary workers for the retail—jobs, population, income,
The summer surge in COVID cases no holiday shopping season. home construction, access to credit
longer seems to weigh on consumer and consumer confidence—still favor
confidence. The Conference Board’s Houston’s retail sector began to shed Houston. Online sales will eat into
Consumer Confidence Index® stood jobs prior to the pandemic. TWC brick-and-mortar sales but a surge
at 113.8 in October (1985=100), reported nominal losses in ’17, ’18, in activity in the suburbs will offset
up from 109.8 in September. The and ’19 and significant losses in ’20. those losses. The forecast calls for
proportion of consumers in the Brick-and-mortar retail has struggled retail to reverse the trend of losses
board’s survey that said they plan as online shopping captures a larger incurred over the past four years and
to purchase homes, automobiles, share of the consumer’s wallet. add 2,000 jobs in ’22.
and major appliances in the near In Q2/11, e-commerce accounted
future all increased in October—a
sign that consumer spending will RETAIL EMPLOYMENT, METRO HOUSTON, AS OF DECEMBER
continue to support economic
growth well into ’22.
330
Bottlenecks at factories, ports and 320
container yards have sent costs
Employment, 2010s
skyrocketing, squeezing retail 310
margins, and creating inventory 300
shortfalls. In September, inventories
were at their lowest level in five 290
years, according to the U.S. Census
280
Bureau. As a result, some appliance
brands are hard to find, food items 270
- especially imported ones - are
260
missing from grocery shelves, and
shoppers have fewer choices in 250
apparel and accessory stores. ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20
Source: Texas Workforce Commission *average 12-months ending 9/21
Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021 | 13INFORMATION
The information sector includes cable competing with web-based media, of the pandemic. Movie theatres
services, data processing, motion workers replaced by technology, and accounted for over half the sector’s
picture and video studios, movie the need to cut costs has reduced losses, so as ticket sales rise, so
theatres, newspaper, magazine and the number of firms and employees should employment. The boost in ad
book publishers, radio and television in the sector. The events of March- revenues should enable newspapers,
broadcasting, sound studios, April ’20 added to the sector’s periodical publishers, radio, and
and satellite, wired and wireless long-standing woes. television broadcasters to replace
telecommunications. some of the personnel laid off in ’20.
But the outlook has improved over Advances in technology continue to
The heyday for the sector was the last 12 months. Advertising reduce the need for manpower in the
in the late ’90s and early ’00s. It spending is recovering. In the U.S., telecom sector.
logged continuous growth for over revenues will hit $278 billion in ’21,
a decade, plateauing December an increase of 23 percent, according The forecast assumes an overall
’00 at 49,400 jobs then begining a to Magna, a media intelligence improving economy, a growing desire
steady decline. As of September ’21, company. Moviegoers are returning for consumers to experience movies
local employment stood at 28,800 to the cinema. The industry is on in theatres, that media and telecom
jobs a 41.7 percent fall from its peak. track to sell over 400 million tickets companies resume hiring, and no
Telecommunications accounts for the in ’21, nearly double the 223 million additional job losses occur in data
bulk of the losses. sold in ’20 but far short of the 1.2 processing and telecommunications.
billion sold in ’19. The forecast calls for information to
Houston is not unique. Information recoup another 700 jobs in ’22.
employment in the U.S. peaked As of September ’21, the sector
around the same time. Mergers had recouped only 600 of the
and acquisitions, traditional media 4,500 jobs shed in the early stages
FINANCE AND
INSURANCE
The finance and insurance sector 14 months all jobs lost in the early Banking
includes corporations engaged in stages of the pandemic. Finance
lending (banks, credit unions, credit and insurance was among the The banking community, fearing
cards, sales financing, mortgage first to reach that milestone. As of significant loan losses early in the
brokers), firms involved in securities September ’21, employment stood at pandemic, set aside billions in
trading (brokerages, portfolio an all-time high. capital to cover those losses. But
managers, investment advisors), Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)
companies that handle insurance The sector faces numerous challenges, loans kept many businesses solvent.
(life, health, property, medical, though. Some are legacies of the Households used their stimulus
commercial), and employee benefit pandemic, others the result of long- checks to pay down debt. And the
plans and pension funds. The sector term trends. Those challenges provide economy reopened quicker than
benefited from the quick rebound of opportunities for growth in ’22. anticipated. The share of loans 90
the U.S. economy, recouping in the days or more past due fell, albeit
14 | Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021slightly, from Q2/20 to Q2/21. Not With fewer accidents, fewers doctors’ Schwab gained a record four
needing those excess reserves, visits, and fewer elective procedures, million new clients last year. More
banks recently released those there were fewer claims to process. than half were under 40.
billions, allowing them to report hefty Insurance firms held onto their • When millennials first entered
profits for Q3/21. They are flush with employees anyway, shedding only the workforce, insurance plans—
cash and ready to lend to businesses 200 jobs in March-April ’20 and specifically life and home—were
and consumers. recouping them all by May. seen as a luxury. Now, a bit older
Securities Trading A few factors that will influence growth and entering new life stages,
in finance and insurance next year: millennials have realized that
The collapse of the stock market employer-supplied insurance may
early in the pandemic ravaged the • Since ’12, the banking industry not be enough.
portfolios of many investors. Over has shuttered over 120 brick-and-
mortar branches in Houston. As • After several hurricanes (Harvey,
roughly 30 days, the Dow Jones Imelda, Nicholas), a pandemic
Industrial Average fell 10,960 points more services move online, the
industry will need fewer tellers but (COVID-19), and a winter storm (Uri),
(37.1 percent), the S&P 500 Index firms are more aware of the need
1,149 points (33.9 percent), and the more programmers.
for business interruption insurance.
NASDAQ Composite 2,956 points • Between Q2/19 and Q2/21, $84
(30.1 percent). The drop was short- billion in deposits flowed into The forecast assumes only a minor
lived, however. By June ’20, the FDIC-insured banks in Houston. slowdown in U.S. economic growth;
NASDAQ had returned to its previous The banks are looking for places to that Houston will continue to recoup
peak, the S&P by August, and the lend these funds. jobs lost early in the pandemic;
Dow by November. Like the plunge in that there’s an uptick in energy,
• According to the Fed’s October
share values, job losses were short- manufacturing, and construction
Senior Loan Officer Opinion
lived. The sector shed 600 jobs the activity; that the pace in-migration
Survey, banks have eased their
first two months of the pandemic but to the region accelerates; and the
lending standards and are
recouped them all two months later. single- and multifamily housing
experiencing stronger demand
Investors still needed to manage their continues to boom. The forecast
for loans of all types—commercial,
portfolios, even if those portfolios calls for finance and insurance to add
industrial, residential mortgage.
were worth much less than they were 2,100 jobs in ’22.
a few months earlier. • Millennials are entering the stock
market. Online broker Charles
Insurance
INSURED BANK DEPOSITS, METRO HOUSTON*
Consumers were primarily focused $Billions 333.7
on health, safety, and economic 305.6
concerns during the early stages
of the pandemic, not shopping for 242.5 240.9 245.7 249.6
insurance. New policy sales fell by 10 208.0 215.2 219.2
to 30 percent. Vehicle miles traveled 179.1
dropped by almost 40 percent.
Many Houstonians, concerned over
exposure to the virus, canceled
trips to the doctor. Twice during the
pandemic, hospitals were banned ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21
from performing elective procedures. Sources: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation *as of June 30
REAL ESTATE AND
RENTAL AND LEASING
The title is a bit misleading. Only The real estate portion includes includes the rental of vehicles,
one-third of the jobs involve real the sale, leasing, and management appliances, furniture, construction,
estate. The remainder involves of real property (single-family and industrial equipment.
the rental of business equipment, homes, apartments, office buildings,
consumer goods, and other items. warehouses). The rentals portion
Greater Houston Partnership Research December 2021 | 15You can also read
