GEOFIN Blog GEOFIN Blog #11 - The post-pandemic city: what could possibly go wrong (by Martin Sokol) - GEOFIN research
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
GEOFIN Blog
_________________________________________________________________________
GEOFIN Blog #11 - The post-pandemic city: what could possibly go wrong (by
Martin Sokol)
Author: Martin Sokol
Date: 25th March 2021
_________________________________________________________________________
The Covid-19 pandemic has reignited debates about the future of cities. Optimists hope that
– in response to the pandemic – our cities can become greener, healthier, smarter, more
pleasant to work and live in, more economically resilient and more sustainable. This blog post
argues that while such positive goals are potentially achievable, there is also a good chance
that things could go horribly wrong. Indeed, in a ‘pandemic city’ scenario outlined here, the
pandemic leads to a vicious circle where the health crisis is compounded by economic,
financial, social, political and ecological crises, accompanied by a ‘technological apartheid’.
As a starting point, it is worth remembering that cities and city-regions now operate within the
framework of a financialised economy, where finance has growing power over the economy
and over society. The so-called ‘real economy’ is now sandwiched between financial markets
and real estate markets (that are themselves increasingly financialised). Households, firms,
banks and states are all caught up in a web of ‘financial chains’ (Sokol, 2017) driven by a
profit-making imperative. The future shape of city-regions is thus inextricably linked to the
operation of financialised financial flows (Fig. 1).
The pandemic has, of course, severely disrupted these financial chains (e.g. see Sokol, 2020;
Sokol and Pataccini, 2020), but the logic of financialisation remains largely intact. In fact, one
could argue that under the conditions of pandemic-induced economic stress, the emphasis on
profitable financial streams will only intensify. The year 2021 was supposed to be a year of
hope – the expectation being that with the arrival of vaccines the battle against the pandemic
can eventually be won. But let’s just imagine for a moment that, for whatever reason (vaccine
supply delays; vaccine hesitancy; new virus variant; etc.), the pandemic is not going to be
brought under control as hoped. What happens then?
In the ‘pandemic city’ scenario outlined in this blog post (Fig. 2), coronavirus will continue to
cause a major health crisis (both directly and indirectly). The continuing health crisis will in
turn inflict further economic and financial damage, with severe implications for people’s jobs
(and joblessness) and homes (and homelessness). The economic and financial hardship will
not be felt equally across society, however. Indeed, there is good reason to believe that parts
of society will be hit much harder than others and, as a consequence, social polarisation will
grow. This social polarisation will go hand in hand with spatial polarisation – both within and
between cities. Simply put, some cities and some parts of cities will do much better than others.
The financialised nature of property markets will only exacerbate this process. Uneven social
and economic impacts will, in turn, fuel political polarisation. Extremist forces will become
mainstream within an increasingly fragmented and unstable political scene. Amid such political
polarisation, it will be impossible to find a much-needed consensus on how to tackle the
climate emergency. As a result, the environmental crisis will deepen. It is not inconceivable
that amid growing environmental chaos (compounded by the economic, financial, social and
political crisis), law and order will disintegrate. The collapse of law and order in cities (or parts
of cities) will also mean that it will become increasingly impossible to impose any public health
measures to control the spread of the virus. This will only serve to accelerate the pandemic
and will further deepen the multiple aspects of the crisis.
Page 1 of 5GEOFIN Blog
_________________________________________________________________________
Faced with such a dire situation, attempts will undoubtedly be made to implement
technological solutions. However, these ‘solutions’ will only cause further polarisation within
cities. A ‘technological apartheid’ may emerge where some people will enjoy a growing range
of exciting online services and technology-enabled solutions, while others will be completely
disconnected from digital services and face increasing social and economic marginalisation.
The divide will not just be digital. Technology will also act as a spatial barrier: physical access
to certain facilities, transport systems, particular zones or whole neighbourhoods of cities will
be controlled by ‘smart’ IT systems (using digitalised personal health records and increasingly
intrusive surveillance methods). However, it is unlikely that such a ‘technological apartheid’
will succeed in ending the pandemic. Indeed, as long as pockets of disease continue to persist
in parts of the community, Covid-19 and its mutations will continue to threaten to reinfect the
whole city. Under this scenario, there will be no such thing as a post-pandemic city. Instead,
the pandemic will become permanent, and cities will be epicentres of its perpetuation. The
vicious circle will continue with devastating consequences.
This ‘pandemic city’ scenario may appear rather extreme and disturbingly dystopian. But it
would be hard to completely dismiss it as unrealistic. In fact, it is possible that various elements
of the vicious circle described above are already in operation in many cities. The longer the
pandemic lasts, the harder it will be to reinstate anything resembling the ‘normal’, let alone
achieving the more optimistic and more sustainable visions. In order to break the emerging
vicious circle, bold actions are needed. In the context of financialised economies, the critical
players are central banks (see Fig. 1). Indeed, it is only gargantuan monetary interventions by
central banks that have so far prevented a total economic and financial meltdown (by propping
up financial markets). We now urgently need central banks not only to provide financial muscle
to beat the pandemic, but also to devise ways to support green recovery and just transition, in
which cities will be key battlegrounds.
Dr Martin Sokol
Principal Investigator
GEOFIN research
https://geofinresearch.eu/
Note:
This blog is based on a presentation entitled “European cities beyond Covid-19: Critical
reflections” (Sokol, 2021), delivered as part of the ‘European cities beyond Covid-19’ webinar
organised by the Trinity Development & Alumni office within the Inspiring Ideas @ Trinity
series. You can find the recording of the full webinar on the Trinity Development & Alumni
website: https://www.tcd.ie/alumni/news-events/webinars/ ; or watch back on YouTube here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K22RsC9FzA4 .
References:
Sokol, M. (2017) Financialisation, financial chains and uneven geographical development in
Europe: Towards a research agenda. Research in International Business and Finance. Vol.
39, Part B, pp. 678-685. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.11.007
Page 2 of 5GEOFIN Blog
_________________________________________________________________________
Sokol, M. (2020) From a pandemic to a global financial meltdown? Preliminary thoughts on
the economic consequences of Covid-19. GEOFIN Blog #9. Dublin: GEOFIN research, Trinity
College Dublin. Available online at https://geofinresearch.eu/outputs/blog/
Sokol, M. (2021) “European cities beyond Covid-19: Critical reflections”. Presentation for the
‘European cities beyond Covid-19’ webinar, Inspiring Ideas @ Trinity webinar series, 10th
February 2021. Dublin: Trinity Development & Alumni, Trinity College Dublin. Available online
at: https://www.tcd.ie/alumni/news-events/webinars/ (or via YouTube at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K22RsC9FzA4 )
Sokol, M. and Pataccini, L. (2020) Winners and losers in coronavirus times: Financialisation,
financial chains and emerging economic geographies of the Covid-19 pandemic. Tijdschrift
voor Economische en Sociale Geografie 111(3): 401-415. DOI: 10.1111/tesg.12433,
https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12433 [OPEN ACCESS].
Photo 1. Dublin under lockdown during the pandemic.
(Photo © M. Sokol, 2021)
Page 3 of 5GEOFIN Blog
_________________________________________________________________________
Fig. 1. Financialised economy
Source: Sokol, 2021
FINANCIAL MARKETS
CENTRAL BANK
CENTRAL
BANK
STATE
BANKS
FIRMS
CITY-
REGION
‘THE REAL ECONOMY’ HOUSEHOLDS
HOUSING MARKETS
& RENTAL MARKETS
Source: Adapted from Sokol (2020)
Fig. 2. The ‘pandemic city’ scenario
Source: Sokol, 2021
COVID ∞
TECHNOLOGICAL HEALTH
APARTHEID CRISIS
LAW & ORDER
DISINTEGRATES
PANDEMIC ECON. & FINANCIAL
COLLAPSE
CITY
ENVIRONMENTAL SOCIAL
CRISIS POLARISATION
POLITICAL SPATIAL
POLARISATION POLARISATION
Page 4 of 5GEOFIN Blog
_________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________
How to cite:
Sokol, M. (2021) The post-pandemic city: what could possibly go wrong. GEOFIN Blog #11.
Dublin: GEOFIN research, Trinity College Dublin. Available online at
https://geofinresearch.eu/outputs/blog/
_________________________________________________________________________
Further information:
More information about GEOFIN (Western Banks in Eastern Europe: New Geographies of
Financialisation) can be found on our website:
https://geofinresearch.eu/
GEOFIN blogs are available here:
https://geofinresearch.eu/outputs/blog/
_________________________________________________________________________
Acknowledgements:
GEOFIN project is funded by the European Research Council (ERC) Consolidator Grant under
the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement
No. 683197).
Page 5 of 5You can also read
