Germany-Based DVB Bank Upgraded To 'AA-/A-1+' On Planned Integration Into DZ BANK; Outlook Negative
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Research Update:
Germany-Based DVB Bank Upgraded To 'AA-/A-1+'
On Planned Integration Into DZ BANK; Outlook
Negative
April 8, 2021
Overview
PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST
- Transport finance specialist DVB Bank has recently announced that it will be fully integrated Cihan Duran, CFA
into its parent, DZ BANK, through an upstream merger in 2022. Frankfurt
+ 49 69 3399 9177
- We believe that its owner, DZ BANK, and ultimate parent, the Cooperative Banking Sector
cihan.duran
Germany, would support DVB Bank under any foreseeable circumstances, if needed. @spglobal.com
- We therefore raised the long- and short-term issuer credit ratings on DVB Bank to 'AA-/A-1+' SECONDARY CONTACT
from 'BBB/A-2'. Harm Semder
Frankfurt
- The negative outlook on DVB Bank mirrors the outlook on the Cooperative Banking Sector
+ 49 693 399 9158
Germany. We expect the ratings on DVB Bank to move in tandem with our assessment of the
harm.semder
sector's group credit profile. @spglobal.com
Rating Action
On April 8, 2021, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term issuer credit rating on transport finance
bank DVB Bank SE (DVB) to 'AA-' from 'BBB' and the short-term rating to 'A-1+' from 'A-2'. The
outlook is negative.
At the same time, we raised our issue ratings on the bank's senior non-preferred debt to 'A+' from
'BBB-', and on its non-deferrable subordinated debt to 'A' from 'BB+'.
Rationale
The announced upstream merger of DVB into DZ BANK markedly supports DVB's
creditworthiness. The upgrade follows our review of DVB's group status to its sole owner DZ
BANK and its ultimate parent, the Cooperative Banking Sector Germany. In the past two years, DZ
BANK had actively considered divestment as one of the potential strategic options for DVB.
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect April 8, 2021 1Research Update: Germany-Based DVB Bank Upgraded To 'AA-/A-1+' On Planned Integration Into DZ BANK; Outlook Negative However, on April 1, 2021, DVB and DZ BANK publicly announced their intention to fully integrate DVB into DZ BANK in 2022. We think DVB's successful run-down of a majority of its shipping and offshore loan portfolio, as well as its two important asset sales in 2019, have significantly reduced the complexity of the bank and now facilitates integration into its parent. The planned upstream merger also materially reduces the likelihood of a potential sale to a non-strategic less-supportive shareholder or another third-party, in our view. Upcoming integration increases likelihood of extraordinary group support. Our base-case scenario now reflects the integration into DZ BANK once all relevant legislative and organizational steps have been successfully taken in the next 12-18 months. There is a residual risk that the transaction will take longer than expected and might face unforeseen obstacles because of the need for agreement among all involved parties. That said, we expect the project to succeed even if it takes longer than DVB anticipates. The planned integration prompts us to see a strengthening of the future likelihood, amount, and timeliness of support DVB would receive, if needed, from its owner DZ BANK and the wider cooperative sector. The group support also reflects the sector's institutional protection scheme, the 100% full ownership by DZ BANK, and the installed control and profit and loss transfer agreement between DVB and its direct parent. DVB's stand-alone financials remain highly volatile, but will represent a smaller role in the bank's creditworthiness when factoring in the intended integration. The bank's financial performance remains weaker than that of many rated peer banks. The bank has been loss-making since 2016 amid material loan loss provisions and substantial reductions of operating revenues. The pandemic and ongoing run-down of the shipping and offshore finance loan portfolio has led to another loss-making year in 2020, with a net financial loss of €308 million. DVB's capital ratios have been at elevated levels since 2017, mainly because of the pronounced reduction of risk-weighted assets. That said, the planned integration of DVB and its cease of operations as a separate legal entity underpins our belief that the ratings on DVB will move in tandem with our assessment of the sector's group credit profile. As such, DVB's stand-alone financial performance is less relevant to the overall credit story, in our view. Outlook The negative outlook on DVB reflects the negative outlook on the Cooperative Banking Sector Germany (Genossenschaftliche FinanzGruppe; entities collectively rated AA-/Negative/A-1+.) It indicates the possibility of a downgrade if increasing economic and industry risks put additional strain on the cooperative banking sector's risk exposures and risk-adjusted profitability in the medium term. The outlook further indicates that we could lower our ratings within the next 12-24 months. Downside scenario - We could lower our 'AA-' issuer credit rating on the cooperative banking sector's core members including DVB, and our related issue ratings on the banks' senior preferred debt, senior subordinated debt, and regulatory capital instruments, if we revise our anchor for German banks to 'bbb+' from 'a-'. - We could also lower the ratings if the sector's market position and ability to cover normalized credit losses weakened, its overall risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio declined to less than 10%, the sector shifted into higher-risk areas, or underwriting quality loosened. www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect April 8, 2021 2
Research Update: Germany-Based DVB Bank Upgraded To 'AA-/A-1+' On Planned Integration Into DZ BANK; Outlook Negative
Upside scenario
We could revise our outlook to stable over the next 12-24 months if we were to see stable
economic and industry risk trends for the German banking industry. Moreover, we could revise the
outlook to stable if the sector's business model and risk profile remain robust, and the sector
displays much higher resilience to a weakening economic cycle than other German banks or
similarly rated international peers. We also believe a more holistic strategy and material progress
in addressing structural weaknesses, such as cost efficiency and below-average market positions
in corporate and private banking, remain pivotal credit factors.
Related Criteria
- General Criteria: Hybrid Capital: Methodology And Assumptions, July 1, 2019
- General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, July 1, 2019
- Criteria | Financial Institutions | General: Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework Methodology, July
20, 2017
- General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017
- Criteria | Financial Institutions | Banks: Bank Rating Methodology And Assumptions: Additional
Loss-Absorbing Capacity, April 27, 2015
- Criteria | Financial Institutions | Banks: Quantitative Metrics For Rating Banks Globally:
Methodology And Assumptions, July 17, 2013
- Criteria | Financial Institutions | Banks: Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9,
2011
- Criteria | Financial Institutions | Banks: Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment
Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011
- General Criteria: Principles Of Credit Ratings, Feb. 16, 2011
Related Research
- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Germany, Nov. 11, 2020
- DVB Bank Outlook Revised To Positive On Potential Change Of Group Support; 'BBB/A-2'
Ratings Affirmed, Jul. 24, 2020
Ratings List
Upgraded; Outlook Action
To From
DVB Bank SE
Issuer Credit Rating AA-/Negative/A-1+ BBB/Positive/A-2
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect April 8, 2021 3Research Update: Germany-Based DVB Bank Upgraded To 'AA-/A-1+' On Planned Integration Into DZ BANK; Outlook Negative
Upgraded
To From
DVB Bank SE
Senior Subordinated A+ BBB-
Subordinated A BB+
Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors,
have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such
criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at www.standardandpoors.com for further information. A description of each of
S&P Global Ratings' rating categories is contained in "S&P Global Ratings Definitions" at
https://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/web/guest/article/-/view/sourceId/504352 Complete ratings
information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.capitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating
action can be found on S&P Global Ratings' public website at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search
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www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect April 8, 2021 4Research Update: Germany-Based DVB Bank Upgraded To 'AA-/A-1+' On Planned Integration Into DZ BANK; Outlook Negative
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