BIG WHEEL KEEP ON TURNING - JASON MCNAMARA, CNA SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW - NEMA

 
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BIG WHEEL KEEP ON TURNING - JASON MCNAMARA, CNA SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW - NEMA
Kathy Fulton, ALAN   Dave Kaufman, CNA Jason McNamara, CNA   Lars Hanson, CNA

                     Big Wheel Keep on Turning
                               Supply Chain Flow

                       Oct 28, 2019
BIG WHEEL KEEP ON TURNING - JASON MCNAMARA, CNA SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW - NEMA
Baseline: The Disaster that Keeps you Awake at Night
            •       Picture your “White Whale” disaster
                     • East Coast: Hurricane
                     • Northeast: Blizzard, Nor’Easter
                     • West Coast: Earthquake
                     • Midwest: Historic Floods/New Madrid
            •       Describe your initial response actions
            •       What information do you require to guide your decision-making?
                     • What are the questions you will ask?
            •       What are your principal concerns?
                     • Population Safety
                     • Public Infrastructure Damage
                     • Security
                     • Resources/Logistics
            •       With respect to resources and logistics:
                     • How do you assess the needs of the population?
                     • How do you assess the health of supply chain systems?
                     • What are the your existing partnerships with private sector?
                     • What are your main information collection mechanisms?

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BIG WHEEL KEEP ON TURNING - JASON MCNAMARA, CNA SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW - NEMA
Engaging the Private
                                                  Sector

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BIG WHEEL KEEP ON TURNING - JASON MCNAMARA, CNA SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW - NEMA
Discussion – communicating with the private sector

            1. What information are you asking for (and receiving)?

            2. What information would you like to have?

            3. What information are you sharing with them?

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BIG WHEEL KEEP ON TURNING - JASON MCNAMARA, CNA SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW - NEMA
Examining supply chain
                                       flow in the real world
                                            I. Fuel in Florida
                                            II. Food in Puerto Rico
                                            III. Groceries in Puget Sound

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BIG WHEEL KEEP ON TURNING - JASON MCNAMARA, CNA SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW - NEMA
I. Fuel in Florida -
            • Hurricane Irma resulted in large scale retail fuel outages across the State of Florida
            • Florida gets nearly all of its fuel from petroleum terminals that receive deliveries by ship, and
              has few pipelines; Nearly all fuel stations receive fuel by truck from petroleum terminals

            • Quiz: Which major metropolitan area
              in Florida had the highest percentage of
              retail fuel stations without fuel during Irma?

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BIG WHEEL KEEP ON TURNING - JASON MCNAMARA, CNA SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW - NEMA
Understanding how the system works

                                            Landfall –1d       Landfall   Landfall +2d

           Sep 7, 6 p.m.
                                            Source: GasBuddy

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BIG WHEEL KEEP ON TURNING - JASON MCNAMARA, CNA SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW - NEMA
Fuel issues - Further confirmation during Dorian
                                                                         Areas furthest from fuel racks again show the
                                                                         highest percentage of stations with outages.

                                                                         If the petroleum terminals and fuel racks are
                                                                         operational, this is a case of demand exceeding
                                                                         supply capability, and will resolve on its own in
                                                                         a few days as deliveries catch up.

                        (w. truck access)    Gainesville area

                                                                Fort
                                                                Pierce

                                                   Naples,
                         (minutes, typical         Fort Myers
                         conditions)

                                                                             Gasbuddy, as of 12:30 8/30/2019

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BIG WHEEL KEEP ON TURNING - JASON MCNAMARA, CNA SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW - NEMA
I. Florida and Fuel disruptions
            • Lessons learned- understanding how the system works:
               • Disruption influenced by predictable network characteristics: distance from
                 fuel racks, power outage and generator status.
               • Terminals with fuel racks are a critical node type and can be a bottleneck
               • Truck drivers and large truck stops are key parts of the system – What
                 about their needs?

            • Considering your “white whale” disaster, how would these lessons influence
              your thinking?

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BIG WHEEL KEEP ON TURNING - JASON MCNAMARA, CNA SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW - NEMA
II. Food in Puerto Rico
            • Remember:
               • FEMA’s support to Puerto Rico after Maria was the largest food mission in
                 US history, over 62 million meals in the first 6 months
               • Puerto Rico’s population has a very high poverty rate
                                • Little food storage at home
                                • Over 40% of population dependent on SNAP benefits (called PAN in Puerto Rico),
                                  which require payment systems to be working

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Largest food mission in US history
          Where did it go?
                                               • Responding to a request
                                                 (for >346M meals!) that
                                                 assumed total failure of
                                                 supply chains
                                               • Long distance transport
                                                 from mainland delays
                                                 distribution

                                               What do you observe about
                                               distribution of food aid relative
                                               to storm path?

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…but was aid sent to areas of greatest need?

                                        Food deserts with dense population concentrated in peri-urban areas on eastern side of island
                                        and near western coastal cities. Important areas for emergency food aid?
Indicators: Nodes, Pop. Vulnerability. Data Source: Dun & Bradstreet, FEMA . Vintage: 2018

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Was it enough to make a difference? A matter of scale

                             Irma/Maria - Monthly Retail Food Sales in Puerto Rico                       • Private sector actually displayed surprising
                                                                                                           resilience
              $600          Gov. Dev. Bank of PR            Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico        • Food sales increased after landfall
              $500                                                                                           • Most retail locations receiving shipments in
                                                                                                               3-7 days
              $400                                                                                           • Lack of power, payment systems hindered
                                                                                                               but did not stop commodity flow or sales
        Million $

              $300

              $200

              $100
                                                       All FEMA food released to territory

                    $0
                            Jul-17   Aug-17   Sep-17   Oct-17   Nov-17 Dec-17   Jan-18   Feb-18 Mar-18

                                              Maria Landfall
                         (The private sector is the “Big Wheel” here.)                                             (It kept on turning, despite challenges.)

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Find concentrations of activity…and avoid disrupting them

                                                              Significant
                                                              concentration of
                                                              food distribution
                                                              centers near
                                                              Bayamon.
                                                              Heavily
                                                              dependent on
                                                              Port of San
                                                              Juan for
                                                              inbound
                                                              shipments.
                                                              Relief supplies
                                                              added to
                                                              bottleneck in
                                                              this area.

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Food in Puerto Rico
            • Lessons learned –
               • Monitor the system – Expected total collapse; Food was actually moving
                 soon after landfall, but few knew about it
               • Learn dependencies – Criticality of PAN card (i.e., SNAP) processing
               • Understand where and where not to assist – Bottlenecks at Port of San
                 Juan, competition for logistics capacity (containers, trucking), little aid to
                 most vulnerable areas

            • How does this knowledge affect your thinking about your “white whale”
              scenario?

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III. Puget Sound Grocery
            • Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake could cut off access to Puget Sound
              by road and rail
            • Greater Seattle further from alternate sources of supply of sufficient scale
              than any other CONUS metro area
            • In understanding how to feed survivors after a black sky event; any surviving
              capacity to move food is potentially important

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Basic mapping is intriguing but not sufficient
                                                                                Hazards

                                                             Liquefaction Susceptibility         Select

                                                                              Earthquake Scenarios
                                                                              Shaking Intensity (MMI)
                                                           Select                4   5   6   7    8   9

                                                           Select               Cascadia 9.0

                                                           Select                Tacoma 7.1

                                                           Select               Nisqually 7.2
                                                           Select

                                                           Select
                                                                             Wait – Are we
                                                                             jumping to
                                                                             conclusions before
                                                           Select
                                                                             we really understand
                                                                             the system?

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The right datasets are important to building the picture

                                                           Example:
                                                           The HIFLD Public
                                                           Refrigerated
                                                           Warehouses data set
                                                           is much less robust
                                                           than the state level
                                                           data.

                                                               Data Sources:
                                                               WA State Department of
                                                               Agriculture, Food Storage
                                                               Warehouse Permits (2018)
                                                               HIFLD, Public Refrigerated
                                                               Warehouses (2018)

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Improving the picture - Categorization by Type, Size
                                                           Processing data to add
                                                           quantitative and qualitative
                                                           attributes helps build a
                                                           more informed picture.

                                                           Wherever possible, key
                                                           metrics for facilities should
                                                           focus on
                                                           1) commodity flow and
                                                           storage,
                                                           2) Flow capacity or storage
                                                           capacity
                                                           3) failing that, other
                                                           metrics of size.

                                                            Data Source:
                                                            WA State Department of
                                                            Agriculture, Food Processor
                                                            Licenses (2018)

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Analysis using capacity becomes actionable

                                                                        Finding:
                                                                        Top 5, 10 and 20 tracts
                                                                        have 46, 71 and 86 % of
                                                                        total storage by area in the
                                                                        envelope.
                                                                        Top 5 tracts have 111 of
                                                                        368 warehouses in the
                                                                        envelope (746 statewide).
                                                                        Top tract has 46.

                                                                        Data Sources:
                                                                        WA State Department
                                                                        of Agriculture, Food
                                               Top Tract: 13.6 M sf     Storage Warehouse
                                               Top 5 total: 34.1 M sf   Permits (2018)
                                               In Envelope: 72.6 M sf   Microsoft Building
                                                                        Footprints layer (2018)

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Flow mapping brings together data and insight                                                                      Top 5 brands
                                                                                                                             (90% market share)

                                                                                                                                Brand A

                                                                                                                               Brand B

                                                                                                                               Brand C

                                                                                                                               Brand D

                                                                                                                                Brand E

                                            Market share served (%)            Freight route truck traffic         Select

                                                                                   1000 5000 10000                          Getting this picture
                                                                                   Ann. Avg. daily trucks
                                             0.2 1   2 10    20   30                                                        requires data but also
                                                                               Market Share flow (%)
                                                                                                                   Select   validation from private
                                               Primary Distribution Center     passing through tract
                                              Aux./Other Distribution Center          None
Flow mapping brings together data and insight                                                                      Top 5 brands
                                                                                                                             (90% market share)

                                                                                                                                Brand A

                                                                                                                               Brand B

                                                                                                                               Brand C

                                                                                                                               Brand D

                                                                                                                                Brand E

                                            Market share served (%)            Freight route truck traffic         Select

                                                                                   1000 5000 10000                          Getting this picture
                                                                                   Ann. Avg. daily trucks
                                             0.2 1   2 10    20   30                                                        requires data but also
                                                                               Market Share flow (%)
                                                                                                                   Select   validation from private
                                               Primary Distribution Center     passing through tract
                                              Aux./Other Distribution Center          None
Grocery in Puget Sound -
            • Lessons learned:
               • Engage private sector – Validate assumptions and validate the final picture
               • Get the right data, make it usable
               • Characterize the network: focus on 1) flow, 2) capacity, 3) all other
                 measures of size

            • What is happening: process of validating and understanding regional picture
              has reset public-private relationship

            • How would this level of understanding of food flows influence your
              preparedness and planning?

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Putting insights into practice:
                                       Where do we go from here?

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Key lessons and observations
            • Private sector supply chains and public sector relief supplies are separate flows; private
              sector orders of magnitude larger
            • No one has a complete picture of lifeline commodity movement, but the process of trying to
              create a more complete one benefits many stakeholders
            • Significant opportunity exists for the public sector to help facilitate the resilience of private
              sector supply chains during disasters (or at least avoid doing harm), providing better
              outcomes for survivors and reducing the demand for public sector relief supplies

            • Focus on commodity flow, but failing that, capacity, and failing that, other measures of size
              or scale
            • Find the most complete, timely, and commodity-flow relevant data sources
            • Engage the private sector to validate understanding of supply chain networks and build
              partnerships to enhance network resilience before and during disasters

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CNA Supply chain operational engagement (CNA SCOPE™) method
                  STEP 1: DEFINE NETWORK SCOPE BY COMMODITY,
                  GEOGRAPHY
                                                                    • CNA SCOPE™ method focuses on…
                  STEP 2: ACQUIRE AND PROCESS DATA TO BUILD            • Commodity flow above all else
                                                                       • Whole ecosystem rather than individual entities’
                  NETWORK CHARACTERIZATION

                  STEP 3: DEVELOP MAPS OF COMMODITY FLOW                 supply chains
                                                                       • Supporting survivors in large urban areas
                   STEP 4: ASSESS NETWORK FOR CONCENTRATIONS,       • First 4 steps are blue-sky tasks, and can be
                   VULNERABILITIES                                    completed prior to an event. (Steps 2-4 are
                                                                      difficult to do in just a few days before an
                  STEP 5: INJECT IMPACTS OF EXTREME EVENT, ASSESS
                  NETWORK FUNCTION AND CONSEQUENCES
                                                                      event.)
                                                                    • Step 5 is where disaster starts (either in
                   STEP 6: RANK BOTTLENECKS BY CONSEQUENCE AND        reality or exercise)
                                                                    • Step 6 and 7 is where Fed/State/Local,
                   IDENTIFY OPTIONS TO EXPLOIT SURVIVING CAPACITY

                                                                      Private, VOAD, and Academic partners work
                  STEP 7: ANALYZE TOP BOTTLENECKS, TAKE ACTION TO
                  AMELIORATE, REPEAT                                  together to make decisions to enhance
                                                                      commodity flow to survivors.

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Getting started...
            • Carefully select your region of interest, and your commodity
            • Understand the supply chain for your selected commodity
            • Find the right data sources to describe the whole ecosystem
            • Focus on the large, proportional flows of commodities, and where possible,
              deemphasize business sensitive metrics
            • Engage the relevant supply chain operators to help answer questions about
              network characterization, and to validate the overall picture
            • Perform analysis on key portions of the supply chain to understand important
              concentrations/bottlenecks
            • Work to improve network characterization over time, and put it to use for
              exercises and planning

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Closing thoughts
                                             and discussion

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Acknowledgements

            • DHS CISA NRMC, Region X       • Supply Chain Analysis Network
            • National Institute for          • Philip J. Palin
              Hometown Security               • MIT Center for Transportation
                                                Logistics
            • FEMA NIC
                                              • American Logistics Aid Network
            • FEMA LMD                        • CNA
            • National Academies of           • Dewberry
              Science, Engineering, and     • State, regional, local
              Medicine                        governments/agencies
            • Southeast Pennsylvania        • Private sector representatives
              Regional Task Force
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