HOSPITALITY QUARTER 1 2020 - Colliers
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Ho Chi Minh – Hanoi - Danang HOSPITALITY QUARTER 1 2020
2
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Quarter 1 | Vietnam
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
GDP
In the first quarter of 2020, the GDP of Vietnam is estimated to increase by 3.82% over the same period last year. This
is the lowest growth rate of the first quarter of the years in the period of 2011-2020, the reason is due to the negative
impact of COVID-19 has on all socio-economic fields.
CPI
Compared to the same period last year, the average CPI of Vietnam increased by 5.5%. There are numerous reasons
for this, first is the demand for many types of goods during the Lunar New Year increased compared to the same period
last year. Second is the vegetable price skyrocketed since Vietnam can no longer import vegetable from China due to
COVID-19. In addition to the causes of CPI 5.5% increase in the first quarter of 2020, there are several factors that
contribute slow down CPI such as the oil price being adjusted 5 times and the need for travelling decreased significantly.
Also, the inflation rate is increased by 2.95% compared to the same period last year.
FDI
In the first quarter of 2020, the total of Vietnam’s capital investment reached 15.4 billion USD, increased by 2.2%
compared to the same period last year, the lowest increased rate in the period 2016-2020. Total foreign investment in
Vietnam as of March 20, 2020 reached nearly 8.6 billion USD, down 20.9% over the same period last year
Retail sale
For the first time since 2016, rate of total retail sales of consumer goods and services decreased, by 0.8% in March
compared to the last month. In the first quarter of 2020, the increase rate is only at 4.7%. The negative effects of the
Covid-19 epidemic impact consumer psychology, decreasing the consumer demand.
International arrival
There are only 3.7 million international visitors arrived in Vietnam in the first three month of 2020, an 18.1% decrease
compared to the same period last year. The sharpest decrease rate was concentrated in major markets such as China,
South Korea and the US.
Trade balance
Total import and export turnover in March is estimated at 115.34 billion USD, down 0.7% over the same period last year.
The total export turnover is recorded at 59.08 billion USD, went up by 0.5%. On the other hand, the total import turnover
is 56.26 billion USD, decreased by 1.9%.
Figure 1: Vietnam Export-Import, 2010-2020F Figure 2: Vietnam International Arrivals, 2010-2020F
Exports Imports Trade Balance International tourist arrivals Growth rate
300 20 40%
250 30%
15
million arrival
200 20%
USD billion
150 10 10%
100 0%
50 5
-10%
0
0 -20%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F
-50 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Source: Colliers International Source: Colliers International11
SERVICED APARTMENT – HO CHI MINH
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
Quarter 1 | Vietnam
Performance: Rental rate and occupancy decreased badly
In the first month of 2020, both occupancy rate and average rental rate of HCMC’s serviced apartment recorded positive
increase in all grades. However, due to the COVID-19 from China, by the end of January, these numbers started to be
decreased and fell badly in the next 2 months. Specifically, for grade A, there are 12 projects in Ho Chi Minh city with the
rate of occupancy only recorded 13% and average asking rent in some serviced apartment went down 15% -moving
around 32 USD/sqm/month. Besides that, the remaining 26 projects from grade B also reached low occupancy rate with
only approximately 10% room filled and 24 USD/sqm/month.
Supply: Future supplies were postponed
Due to the virus outbreak, there is no new supply in the first quarter of 2020. The current market kept remaining 1722
rooms in grade A and 1,313 rooms in grade B. In further, the 4 new projects which were expected to go into operation in
early 2020 are also delayed untill the pandemic is in controlled.
Figure 3: HCMC Serviced Apartment, Avg. Ask. Rent by Grade
Grade A Grade B
50
40
USD/sqm/month
30
20
10
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Source: Colliers International
Figure 4: HCMC Serviced Apartment, Occupancy rate
Grade A Grade B
100
80
60
40
20
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Source: Colliers International
`4
SERVICED APARTMENT – HO CHI MINH
Quarter 1 | Vietnam
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
Demand: Went down deeply due to society distance policy
So far, COVID 19 as well as society isolation policy has been allocated by the government have been affecting tourism
badly. Hence, the demand on renting serviced apartments went off. Only a few remain d people who are being in business
trip or long-term contracts, almost no tourists. However, with the China – USA trade war becomes tougher and more
serious these present days, more foreign investments are coming into Vietnam which show a very potential opportunity
for Serviced apartment market after pandemic.
Outlook: FDI and tourism growth rate are still potential to push the market in coming time
There will be 4 more serviced apartment projects scheduled to be open in 2020. This year may become the worst year
for tourism and serviced apartment in the last recent years. However, because Vietnam is doing very well in controlling
the virus and new positive cases have been decreasing these day, serviced apartment still have opportunity to restart
their business and expand more. Also the growth rate of Vietnam in tourism and FDI have no sign of slowing down if the
pandemic did not happen, the demand will also rise. With both supply and demand are expecting to be increased in the
following year, the serviced apartment business will likely to be very potential.
.
Table 1: HCMC Serviced Apartment, Upcoming (2019)
Property Location No. of Keys
Sonata Residence District 7 250
Terra Royal District 3 366
Berkley Serviced Residence District 2 85
Source: Colliers International
Comment on impact of Covid-19: COVID-19 has been negatively effecting HCMC serviced apartment when both rental
rate and occupancy rate decreased badly and with the society distance policy from government, many firms had to
postpone their business. However, Vietnam is doing well in the figth with Corona virus so it is positive to expect the
market will be back to normal by the third quarter of 2020.11
Table 2: HCMC Serviced Apartment, Notable Properties
Completion No. of Occupanc
No Name of Project/Building Address Location ARR (*)
Year units y Rate
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
Quarter 1 | Vietnam
1 The Landmark 5B Ton Duc Thang District 1 1995 65 8% 30.0
2 Sedona Suites Orchid Tower 65 Le Loi District 1 1996 89 10% 35.0
21-23 Nguyen Thi Minh
3 Somerset Chancellor Court District 1 1996 172 10% 31.0
Khai
4 Saigon Sky Garden 20 Le Thanh Ton District 1 1998 154 14% 52.0
5 Norfork Mansion 17-21 Ly Tu Trong District 1 1998 126 10% 33.0
6 Diamond Plaza 34 Le Duan District 1 1999 42 12% 32.0
7 Nguyen Du Park Villas 111 Nguyen Du District 1 2004 41 14% 30.0
8 The Lancaster 22-22 Bis Le Thanh Ton District 1 2007 55 10% 42.0
9 Intercontinental Asiana Saigon 39 Le Duan District 1 2009 260 15% 39.0
10 Lafayette De Saigon 8 Phung Khac Khoan District 1 2010 18 9% 32.0
11 Vincom Center 45A Ly Tu Trong District 1 2010 60 8% 30.0
12 Nikko Saigon 235 Nguyen Van Cu District 1 2011 53 9% 40.0
13 Somerset Vista HCMC 628C Ha Noi Highway District 2 2012 100 11% 125.0
14 Sedona Suites Grand Tower 65 Le Loi District 1 2016 195 10% 184.0
Diamond Island Luxury
15 1 Street No. 104-BTT District 2 2018 68 7% 200.0
Residence
Grade A
1 Saigon Domaine 1057 Xo Viet Nghe Tinh District 1 2001 45 6% 17.0
2 Sherwood Residence 127 Pasteur District 3 2007 240 10% 35.0
3 Ben Thanh Luxury 172-174 Ky Con District 1 2010 88 15% 21.0
4 Saigon City Residence 8A/3D2 Thai Van Lung District 1 2011 17 10% 45.0
5 Spring Court 8A/3D2 Thai Van Lung District 1 2011 14 7% 21.0
6 An Phu Superior Compound 43 Thao Dien District 2 2011 68 15% 22.0
7 Poonsa 3 Vo Van Tan District 1 2016 30 11% 31.0
8 Ibis Saigon Airport 2 Hong Ha Tan Binh 2016 20 10% 22.0
9 Sherwood Suites 192 Nam Ky Khoi Nghia District 3 2017 157 11% 105.0
10 Leman Luxury Apartments 117 Nguyen Dinh Chieu District 3 2017 64 7% 91.0
11 Citadines Regency 20-22 Pham Ngoc Thach District 3 2018 229 4% 62.0
13 Richlane Residences 1056A Nguyen Van Linh District 3 2018 243 4% 90.0
14 Somerset D1 Mension 608 Vo Van Kiet District 1 2019 198 5% 25.0
Grade B
`6
SERVICED APARTMENT – HANOI
Quarter 1 | Vietnam
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
Performance: Price falls heavilly
By the end of January, the occupancy rate in Hanoi serviced apartment market began going down due to the COVID-19.
However, in that time, Ha Noi was still a safe destination for tourism so the occupancy rate as well as rental rate were
not much different from last quarter in 2019. Since February, the pandemic became oubreak and almost out of control
all over the world which lead to the decrease of occupancy rate from 90% to around 14 % in grade A and 12% in grade
B. Rental rate was also affected by falling from 40USD/sqm/month to 32 USD/sqm/month for grade A. This number of
grade B was reduced from 21.4 USD/sqm/month to 18.5 USD/sqm/month.
Supply: No new supply
Generally, there is no new supply in Hanoi serviced apartment market with the current remaining number is staying at
44 projects- offering more than 4,500 units. Currently, it is recorded that Tay Ho and Ba Dinh district are having more
than 50% of serviced apartments in Hanoi. There are some future projects but now they are on pending due to society
isolation and novel corona virus.
Figure 5: Hanoi Serviced Apartment, Avg. Ask. Rent by Grade
Grade A Grade B
40
30
USD/sqm/motnh
20
10
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Source: Colliers International
Figure 6: Hanoi, Office, Average Occupancy Rate
Grade A Grade B
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Source: Colliers International11
SERVICED APARTMENT – HANOI
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
Quarter 1 | Vietnam
Demand: Decreased strongly
Being affected by the outbreak of COVID-19, Hanoi is having highest risks with most cases in the whole Vietnam, the
demand on tourism decreased strongly. Most customers who living in serviced apartment now are only people on
business trip and long-term contracts.
Outlook: Still many challenge ahead
Corona virus is preventing tourism business from developing this year. Hence, there will be many challenges and
difficulties that serviced apartments have to face. If the pandemic last long, many firms are on the risks to shut down
when there is no more demand in market. However, because Vietnam is working well to control the virus, there still have
opportunity for service apartment to raise. In further, foreign corporations such as Sumitomo, Mitsubishi Corporation and
CapitaLand are aiming to invest in Hanoi serviced apartments. Therefore, the market is expected to be more dynamic in
the future with several supplied that will be provided. Moreover, the number of foreign experts coming to Vietnam for
work and foreign travelers to Vietnam are always increasing, demand would very likely to be improved.
Table 3: Hanoi Serviced Apartment, Future Supply (2020)
Project District Total supply Completion year
Oakwood Residence Tay Ho 190 4Q2019
Pent Studio Tay Ho 327 4Q2019
Hanoi Aqua Central Ba Dinh 238 4Q2019
345 Doi Can Ba Dinh 90 4Q2019
Source: Colliers International
Comment on impact of Covid-19: Due to thi virus outbreak since February, the number of tourists decreased badly in
the last two months of quarter 1. Therefore, it led to the downward performance of service apartment whose occupancy
rate reduced deeply and many places had to decrease the rental price to 15-20%.
`8
Table 4: Hanoi Serviced Apartment, Notable Properties
Quarter 1 | Vietnam
`Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
Average
No. Project Name Address Location Total ARR(*)
Occupancy
1 Lotte Center Dao Tan Cong Vi Ba Dinh 258 12% 43.0
2 Hanoi Daewoo 360 Kim Ma Ba Dinh 194 15% 28.0
3 Sofitel Plaza 1 Thanh Nien Ba Dinh 56 15% 38.0
4 Hanoi Somerset Grand 49 Hai Ba Trung Hoan Kiem 185 10% 35.0
23 Phan Chu
5 Sun Red River Hoan Kiem 46 9% 25.0
Trinh
83B Ly Thuong
6 Pacific Place Hoan Kiem 35 8% 23.0
Kiet
7 Sedona Suites 96To Ngoc Van Tay Ho 181 10% 34.0
8 Somerset West Lake 254D Thuy Khue Tay Ho 90 8% 30.0
9 Hanoi Lake View 28 Thanh Nien Tay Ho 26 15% 25.0
10 Intercontinental Ha Noi 13 Nghi Tam Tay Ho 25 8% 35.0
11 Fraser Suites Hanoi 51 Xuan Dieu Tay Ho 184 13% 40.5
12 Somerset West Point 2 Tay Ho Tay Ho 185 12% 36.0
13 Crown Plaza 36 Le Duc Tho Tu Liem 136 15% 35.0
14 Calidas E6, Pham Hung Tu Liem 378 10% 38.0
106 Hoang Quoc
15 Somerset Hoa Binh Cau Giay 206 7% 31.0
Viet
Grade A
1 Rose Garden 170 Ngoc Khanh Ba Dinh 96 8% 24.0
2 V-Tower 649 Kim Ma Ba Dinh 36 9% 28.0
3 DMC Lake View 535 Kim Ma Ba Dinh 66 8% 16.0
4 Hoa Binh Green 376 Duong Buoi Ba Dinh 40 12% 22.0
5 Lancaster Hanoi 20 Nui Truc Ba Dinh 31 7% 24.0
6 May Fair 34B Tran Phu Ba Dinh 48 15% 17.0
7 Skyline Tower 4 Dang Dung Ba Dinh 79 8% 31.0
8 Candle Hotel 287-301 Doi Can Ba Dinh 69 6% 27.0
9 Elegant Suites Hahoi 19B Ha Noi Hoan Kiem 39 8% 25.0
10 Palace De Thien Thai 2 Tho Nhuom Hoan Kiem 16 12% 23.0
11 Atlanta 49 Hang Chuoi Hai Ba Trung 50 10% 24.0
12 Times City 485 Minh Khai Hai Ba Trung 150 8% 19.0
13 Rainbow 7TrieuVietVuong Hai Ba Trung 26 8% 14.0
14 Oriental Palace 33 Tay Ho Tay Ho 59 6% 30.0
10C Dang Thai
15 Elegant Suites Westlake Tay Ho 131 11% 27.0
Mai
16 Flower Village Hanoi 14 Thuy Khue Tay Ho 131 10% 23.0
17 Swan Lake 3/61/31 Xuan Dieu Tay Ho 6 15% 17.0
18 Lakeside Garden 56 Xuan Dieu Tay Ho 8 5% 14.0
19 Dolphin 28 Tran Binh Tu Liem 70 7% 15.0
20 Jana Garden Terrace 6 Kim Dong Hoang Mai 72 8% 22.0
21 Pan Horizon 157 Xuan Thuy Cau Giay 86 5% 30.0
4, 86 Alley, Duy
22 My Way Cau Giay 39 11% 25.0
Tân
23 Royal City 72 Nguyen Trai Thanh Xuan 100 8% 17.0
Grade B11
CONDOTEL – DANANG
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
Quarter 1 | Vietnam
Performance: Both occupancy and price decreased
The first quarter of 2020 reported the average rent of the retail market in Da Nang of $17.40/sqm/month in USD. Due to
the global pandemic and the restriction given by the government, many malls and retail stores must close. As a result,
the occupancy rate has been reduced by 16%, unlike the previous quarter where the percentage of occupancy was
reported to be increased. Moreover, there was no additional supply, retail market performance will continue to decline at
least until the next quarter due to the economic downturn.
Supply: No new supply
There is no new supply of retail malls in the first quarter of 2020. As a result, the leasable areas remain at more than
100,000sqm. With 94% of the retail mall located equally in Hai Chau, Son Tra and Ngu Hanh Son district, and 6% located
in Thanh Khue district. Due to the current pandemic, there will be no new supply since most projects are being postponed
by the government to repulse the spread of Covid-19. However, more existed supply will be available since many brands
will go out of business and return the rental space.
Figure 7: Danang Condotel, Absorption Rate by District
Source: Colliers International
Figure 8: Danang Condotel, Supply by Dtrict performance trend
Ngu Hanh Son Son Tra Hai Chau
8%
42%
50%
Source: Colliers International
`10
CONDOTEL – DANANG
Quarter 1 | Vietnam
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
Demand: Customers are more cautious
With its current strengths in geography and tourism such as coastal city, advance transportation infrastructures, huge
visitor attraction, investment demand in Danang is surely very high. However, buyers and investors feel quite reserved
and cautious about the prospect of condotel because of some negative events happened in last quarter.
Outlook: Still have massive potential
In Q4 2019, legal problems and unsupportive market information prevented condotel from increasing trend and stayed
at a slumping stage. Currently, developers would take their committed annual payment into account again to see if these
rates are affordable or not.
Anyway, Danang is still a potential city and attracts lots of attention from many Asian countries such as Hong Kong,
China, Korea. It has lots of chances for expansion and development. If condotel policies are completed by authorities as
well as the profits are guaranteed by the developers, the market will recover as it was.
Figure 9: Danang Condotel, Guaranteed Return
Source: Colliers International
Comment on impact of Covid-19: Customers still hesitate to buy condotels because of the incident earlier this year,
now with the negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both occupancy rate and price decreased.8
Table 5: Danang Condotel, Notable Properties
Completion No. of Average Selling
No Name of Project/Building Address Location
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
Quarter | Region
Year units Price (USD/sqm)*
1 F Home 16 Dang Tu Kinh Hai Chau Q1/2016 560 1,600
105–107 Vo Nguyen Ngu Hanh
2 Ariyana Condotel Furama Q1/2016 1,320 2,534
Giap Son
Ngu Hanh
3 Cocobay Truong Sa Q1/2016 1591 1,917
Son
4 Vinpearl Riverfront Ngo Quyen Son Tra Q2/2016 736 2,203
Ocean Suites (Block Ngu Hanh
5 Truong Sa Q2/2016 115 2,394
A&B) Son
6 Wyndham Soleil Vo Nguyen Giap Son Tra Q4/2016 706 4,069
7 Hoa Binh Green Danang Le Van Duyet Son Tra Q4/2016 1,536 926
Ngu Hanh
8 Naman Garden Truong Sa Q4/2016 99 2,145
Son
A1 - A6 Vo Nguyen
9 Alphanam Luxury Son Tra Q4/2016 234 1,815
Giap
`FOR MORE INFORMATION
RESEARCH AND ADVISORY
David Jackson Nhu Khuong
+84 906 925 935 +84 909 680 997
David.jackson@colliers.com nhu.khuong@colliers.com
Winnie Lam
+84 765 595 616
Winnie.lam@colliers.com
This report gives information based primarily on Colliers International data, which may be helpful in anticipating trends in the property sector.
However, no warranty is given as to the accuracy of, and no liability for negligence is accepted in relation to, the forecasts, figures or conclusions Deutsches Haus Ho
contained in this report and they must not be relied on for investment or any other purposes. This report does not constitute and must not be
treated as investment or valuation advice or an offer to buy or sell property. Chi Minh City, 3rd
About Colliers International Group
Floor, 33 Le Duan
Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CIGI) (TSX:CIGI) is a top tier global real estate services and investment management company
operating in 69 countries with a workforce of more than 12,000 professionals. Colliers is the fastest-growing publicly listed global real estate Blvd, District 1,
services and investment management company, with 2017 corporate revenues of $2.3 billion ($2.7 billion including affiliates). With an
enterprising culture and significant employee ownership and control, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate HCMC, Vietnam
occupiers, owners and investors worldwide, and through its investment management services platform, has more than $20 billion of assets
under management from the world’s most respected institutional real estate investors. 700000
Colliers professionals think differently, share great ideas and offer thoughtful and innovative advice to accelerate the success of its clients.
Colliers has been ranked among the top 100 global outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals for 13
consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. Colliers is ranked the number one property manager in the world by
Commercial Property Executive for two years in a row.
Colliers is led by an experienced leadership team with significant equity ownership and a proven record of delivering more than 20%
annualized returns for shareholders, over more than 20 years.
For the latest news from Colliers, visit Colliers.com or follow us on Twitter: @Colliers and LinkedIn.
Research & ForecastingYou can also read
