Integrated Recovery of Air Transportation and Tourism - Affiliate member of September 10, 2020 - AWS
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icf.com/aviation
Integrated Recovery of
Air Transportation and Tourism
Affiliate member of
September 10, 2020
Advisory
Strategic planning
ICF Introduction and consultation
Results-Oriented Consulting Around the Program
World - including in the Tourism and Implementation
Aviation Industries Comprehensive
end-to-end services
• We work with hundreds of companies and governments to plan, design, and
implement transformative projects. With +7,000 people across +70 countries,
we solve complex problems in unique ways. Analytics
• At ICF, business analysts and policy specialists work together with digital Integrated and
purpose-driven data
strategists, data scientists and creatives
• We combine unmatched industry expertise with cutting-edge engagement
capabilities to help organizations solve their most complex challenges Digital
Cutting edge
• Since 1969, public and private sector clients have worked with ICF to navigate technology and
change and shape the future customer experience
• We work from conception to creation, strategy to success, idea to execution.
We change thinking and behaviours at scale and at pace – we make big
Engagement
things possible. Outreach that
drives behavior
and outcomes
Learn more at icf.com
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
ICF’s Broad Travel & Tourism Business Capabilities Are Under
One Roof Air Service Economic
Tourism Sustainability Marketing + Aviation
Strategy Connectivity Communication Impact Analysis Consulting
• Destination • For destinations, • Economic • Brand strategy and • Quantified value of • Airlines
Management airports, national identity flights and tourism
• Social and equality • Airports
level infrastructure
• Stakeholder development • Creative campaign
• Financial
alignment • Source markets for + asset • Aids in stakeholder
• Environmental transactions
tourism growth development buy-in and funding
• Target markets and
• Disaster efforts • Regulators
niche • Holistic programs • Paid media
preparedness and
with multiple • “Big Data”
• Tourism promotion recovery • Public relations
stakeholders
• Loyalty Programs
• Strategic planning • Social engagement
• Strategic and
• Assessment analytical • Digital marketing
approach
• Benchmarking • Loyalty + CRM
• Shared-value • Data management
+ visualization
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 3
icf.com/aviation
Air Service - and what
to do about it
Air Service
Connectivity
Jared Harckham
10 September 2020
Latin America/Caribbean is one example region
where almost every airline is in a transition,
some shrinking and others growing
The pandemic is
Restructuring Market exits New alliances
changing the airline
sector in every global ?
region and tourism
connectivity is Argentina exit confirmed.
affected due to
Brazil domestic? Colombia?
downsized or
disappeared carriers
Argentina exit confirmed. Betting on growth
Returned most A320 fleet
5
Unlike past crises, COVID-19 will drive major changes
to passenger behavior and industry practices
Long-term Changes to Passenger Behavior Long-term Changes to Industry Practices
Passenger scrutiny of health
Strict aircraft hygiene
conditions in their destination 91% 9% 92% 8%
controls?
country?
Faster adoption of video- Sanitary controls at airports,
conferencing for work and 90% 10% such as passenger 75% 25%
education? temperature screenings?
Increase preference for Passenger health
50% 50% verification prior to 63% 37%
nonstop flights?
international flights?
Reduce demand for
conferences and other large 51% 49% Widespread passenger use
44% 56%
events? of protective equipment?
Yes No Yes No
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. Source: ICF COVID-19 Survey, April 2020 6
The pandemic has stopped most business travel,
and the segment will be slow to recover
Once COVID-19 quarantines started, Your company’s travel activity will Once the pandemic is over, your
your company’s travel policy: only resume once we have a viable company's business travel spend will be:
treatment or cure for COVID-19?
57%
63% 54%
41% 43%
38%
2% 3%
Suspended all Suspended Did not Lower than pre- About the same Higher than
True False
travel except for suspend travel pandemic pre-pandemic
essential
business
reasons
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. Source: Customer survey for July 16 2020 webinar 7
The timing and shape of the recovery depend on
standard global control or mitigation of the pandemic
Current phase: the longer this
lasts, the slower the recovery
Quarantine Phase Pre-Recovery Phase Recovery Phase
2-3 months 6-18 months? Several years
§ Essential passenger flights § Domestic resumes first § Full border opening
§ Repatriation flights § Non--standard border opening § Passenger behavioral change
§ Cargo flights limits International recovery affects business and leisure – but
§ Mainly VFR and leisure; less how much?
business travel § Recovery speed depends
§ Health protocols fully in place § a) depth of economic recession
§ Need to convince customers that § b) health of remaining airlines
traveling is safe again § c) availability of vaccine to the
§ Need to plan air service for future public
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 8
COVID-19 Commercial Passenger Flights, 2020 vs 2019
shut down 120%
air travel Brazil China Europe Global India UAE United States
globally –
100%
but as 80%
economies 60%
reopen, 40%
flight 20%
activity is 0%
resuming 1
Jan 2
Feb 3
Mar 4
Apr 5
May 6
Jun 7
Jul 8
Aug
Source: ICF analysis of Innovata SRS 9
Commercial Passenger Flights, 2020 vs. 2019
140%
140% China International China Domestic
France International France Domestic
120% US International US Domestic
120%
Domestic air 100%
100%
92%
service is where 80%
80%
recovery is taking 60%
60% 58%
place now 40%
50%
40%
34%
20% 20%
20%
12%
0%
0% 1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101
106
111
116
121
126
131
136
141
146
151
156
161
166
171
176
181
186
191
196
201
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Source: ICF analysis of Flighradar24 data 10Airlines have begun publishing more air service but they have not
operated all of it, signaling new problems
Number of published flights compared to the Number of published flights compared to the number
number of operated flights of operated flights
Example: Lanzarote Example: EU and UK
1.200 100% 90k 100%
90% 80k 90%
1.000
80% 80%
Adherencia a los vuelos publicados
70k
Vuelos Planeados y Operados
70% 70%
800 60k
60% 60%
50k
600 50% 50%
40k
40% 40%
400 30k
30% 30%
20% 20k
20%
200
10% 10k 10%
0 0% 0 0%
2-Feb
9-Feb
1-Mar
8-Mar
3-May
12-Apr
19-Apr
26-Apr
12-Jul
19-Jul
12-Jan
19-Jan
26-Jan
14-Jun
21-Jun
28-Jun
16-Feb
23-Feb
5-Apr
15-Mar
22-Mar
29-Mar
10-May
17-May
24-May
31-May
5-Jul
5-Jan
7-Jun
14-ene
21-ene
28-ene
14-abr
21-abr
28-abr
2-jun
9-jun
3-mar
5-may
11-feb
18-feb
25-feb
7-ene
7-abr
4-feb
10-mar
17-mar
24-mar
31-mar
12-may
19-may
26-may
% Adherencia a Vuelos Publicados Vuelos Operados Vuelos Publicados Adherencia a vuelos Publicados Vuelos Publicados Vuelos Operados
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. Fuente: Flightradar 24 y SRS Innovata itinerarios publicados 11Pre-Covid-19, the island of Lanzarote had air service from 29 carriers, 13 Full
Service/Hybrid carriers and 16 LCC/Charters but not all routes are returning
Lanzarote Air Service Route Map October, 2019
§ Lanzarote had non-stop service from 62
destinations only in Europe
§ 48 routes were point to point
§ 14 routes were to airline focus cities
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. Source: SRS Innovata October 2020 Published Schedules 12ICF identified 13 viable new routes for Lanzarote including premium travel
markets by linking outbound tourism preferences, market trend data and
aviation data with the repositioning strategy of the island
Lanzarote Potential New Destinations
Hubs § 9 viable hub routes including
Premium Hubs
Point to Point § 6 premium destinations
§ 3 major point to point routes
Hub Premium Beyond Hub
O&D Markets Destinations
London-LHR ü 83
Frankfurt ü 86
Amsterdam ü 77
Munich ü 53
Paris-CDG ü 73
Istanbul 92
Casablanca 31
Lisbon 24
Moscow ü 38
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. Source: ICF Analysis and Forecast 13icf.com/aviation
Fostering airport
competitiveness
through a tourism Tourism
Strategy
strategy
Yolanda Perdomo
10 September 2020Some inspiring
experiences
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 15The case of Hokkaido
§ Facing political and
demographic challenges
§ Private sector to adopt a
new role
§ DMOs: new form of
collaboration
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 16Hokkaido Sichi: The Star of Japan ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 17
The case of Malta
§ Seasonality
§ Tourism Repositioning
§ Governance
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 18The case of Lanzarote, Canary Islands ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 19
ICF LINKS SUSTAINABILITY TO
EVERYTHING WE DO
• Not just environmental, our approach aligns with
the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the
three dimensions of sustainability: social,
economic, and environmental.
• Our methodology incorporates a shared-value
approach to engage all relevant stakeholders from
the public and private sectors, including travelers.
• It also develops a set of measurable Sustainable
Tourism Indicators to establish the best
benchmarks.
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 2012 results-driven modules, in combination,
create Tourism Strategies that result in World
Class results
1
Tourism Conditions
Assessment Existing Tourism Positioning
2 3 4 5
Repositioning Tourism Existing
Segment Inbound Target
Exercise Product Tourism
Specialization Markets
Adjustment Positioning
6 7 8 9
Governance,
Sustainability, and Stakeholder Tourism Air Service
Marketing Outreach
Shared-value
Alignment Marketing Connectivity
Management
10 11 12
Evaluation for
continuous Metrics Capacity Building Innovation
improvement
ICFICF
proprietary andand
proprietary confidential. DoDo
confidential. notnot
copy, distribute,
copy, distribute,orordisclose.
disclose. 21Getting ready for the new times
Leadership
Outstanding Collaboration Legitimacy
Disruption Opportunities Complexity Strategy Governance
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 22icf.com/aviation
Marketing +
Communication
Marketing in a new
landscape
Shannon LovichTRAVELER CULTURAL BRAND
TRUTH TRUTH TRUTH
How are we tracking ever- How has travel changed or how do How will the brand evolved
changing consumer sentiment? we predict it will change? based on this new landscape?
• Audience insights • Relevance • Brand personality
• Attitudes • What matters to people now • Points of difference
• Beliefs • Ownable attributes
• Expectations
24
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.Belize: Building a distinctive position
Experiences are at the core of
social currency and self-discovery.
CULTURAL
TRUTH
TRAVELER BRAND
TRUTH TRUTH
Transformative self-discovery The true magic of Belize
cannot be planned. lies in the unexpected.
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 25Hotels.com: Tapping a new cultural truth to engage
Road trips are hot and RV
sales are on the rise.
CULTURAL
TRUTH
TRAVELER BRAND
TRUTH TRUTH
People are realizing RVs aren’t Hotel life offers something
maybe as great as they’d hoped. that RVs never can.
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 26Delta: Brand building through “customer-oriented”
approach
Social pressures around travel
continue to be divisive.
CULTURAL
TRUTH
TRAVELER BRAND
TRUTH TRUTH
Consumers continue to Delta is doing more than other airlines
express anxiety about travel to protect the health and safety of its
customers
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 27Our global work includes airlines, hotel chains, airports
and destinations.
Unrivalled
Experience
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.Jared Harckham
Jared.Harckham@icf.com
Thank You!
Yolanda Perdomo
Yolanda.Perdomo@icf.com
Shannon Lovich
Shannon.Lovich@icfnext.com
ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.You can also read
