International Policy Forum - 2 April 2020
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International Policy Forum 2 April 2020
COVID-19 in Japan
Cumulative number of confirmed Number of confirmed deaths Number of confirmed cases per
cases (as of 10:30am 1 April) (as of 10:30 am 1 April) excluding day (as of 10:30 am 1 April)
excluding the Diamond Princess the Diamond Princess)
2233 66 234
Cumulative number of confirmed
Cumulative number of deaths Number of confirmed cases per
cases and deaths
(as of 10:30am 1 April) day (as of 10:30 1 April)
(as of 10:30 April)
2500 200 300
180
250
2000 160
140
200
1500 120
100 150
1000 80
100
60
500 40
50
20
0 0 0
06-Feb
11-Feb
16-Feb
21-Feb
26-Feb
01-Apr
01-Apr
06-Feb
11-Feb
16-Feb
21-Feb
26-Feb
02-Mar
07-Mar
12-Mar
17-Mar
22-Mar
27-Mar
02-Mar
07-Mar
12-Mar
17-Mar
22-Mar
27-Mar
01-Apr
06-Feb
11-Feb
16-Feb
21-Feb
26-Feb
02-Mar
07-Mar
12-Mar
17-Mar
22-Mar
27-Mar
Deaths Cases
Confirmed cases by prefecture
(as of 10:30am 1 April)
The cumulative number of confirmed
cases by prefecture
(top 10) (as of 10:30 1 April)
101- Tokyo
51-100
Osaka
41-50
31-40
Aichi
21-30
11-20 Hokkaido
1-10
No reported cases Chiba
Hyogo
Kanagawa
Saitama
Kyoto
Fukuoka
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Government’s response to COVID-19 outbreak
Jan 16 Jan Index case confirmed in Japan
27 Jan COVID-19 categorised as designated infectious disease
29 Jan First government charter flight from Wuhan to Tokyo
30 Jan Novel Coronavirus Response Headquarters established in PM’s Office
Feb 5 Feb Diamond Princess put under quarantine in Yokohama using Quarantine Act
13 Feb First emergency economic package unveiled
First death from COVID-19 confirmed
24 Feb Government Expert Panel “next 2 weeks critically important”
26 Feb Calls on event organisers to cancel, postpone or downsize events
27 Feb Request schools to shut down (end of spring recess in April)
29 Feb PM Abe’s first press conference on COVID-19 outbreak
Mar 9 Mar Quarantine requested of visitors from mainland China and South Korea
10 Mar Second emergency economic package unveiled
13 Mar Diet approves law granting PM power to declare state of emergency
19 Mar Expert Panel says policies having an effect and schools can be re-opened
24 Mar PM agrees with IOC to postpone 2020 Tokyo Olympics
25 Mar Tokyo Governor Koike: “Tokyo in critical phase entering explosion in infections”
27 Mar Imposes entry ban on 21 European countries and Iran
28 Mar Government agrees Basic Action Guidelines on COVID-19 countermeasures
28-29 Mar Greater Tokyo Area, Osaka and Fukuoka governors ask residents to stay home for 2 days
31 March LDP’s policy proposal on economic measuresEconomic stimulus measures First Package (13 February): ¥15.3 billion • Strengthening border controls to minimise spread of the virus • Development of vaccines and virus test kits • Support for returnees from Wuhan • ¥500 billion of low-interest loans for SMEs impacted by the virus Second Package (10 March): ¥430 billion + ¥1.6 trillion low-interest loans for SMEs • Subsidies for working parents who had to miss work to care for their children • Small emergency loans to individuals facing income decline due to the virus • Subsidies for the self-employed • Interest-free loans for SMEs whose sales declined, (at least 15-20%); • Cash flow support for businesses in the tourism industry
Upcoming third economic stimulus package
• Projected to be worth around ¥60 trillion (>10% of Japan’s GDP), including ¥20 trillion in
fiscal measures
• Expected to be approved by the LDP on 6 April and the Cabinet on 7 April – possible
passage by the Diet before the Golden Week holiday in early May
• More than ¥10 trillion (equivalent to a 5-percentage point cut in the consumption tax rate)
to be handed out as a combination of cash, subsidies and vouchers:
o Includes cash handouts for households facing a sharp loss of income and for small
businesses and sole proprietors whose sales have plummeted
o Expands scope of a 12-month grace period for corporate tax payments by SMEs
affected by fallout from the pandemic
o Large number of financial support measures for SMEs suffering from or expecting to
suffer from COVID-19
o Each ministry collecting and negotiating measures with the Ministry of Finance
o LDP also putting forward recommendations of measures to be taken for each sectorContent of third emergency response package Examples of measures suggested by the LDP • Secure screening and systems for medical provision • International cooperation to enhance vaccine development and therapeutic disciplines • Promote crisis management using artificial intelligence and data infrastructure – e- government solutions, individual number cards, telecommuting and remote education • Expand broadcasting content globally via cooperation with foreign broadcasters to increase awareness of Japan’s response and promote Japan as a tourist destination • Launch a one-stop web platform service to summarise and proactively disseminate information to the international community about Japan’s response • Issue food vouchers to promote local produce and travel vouchers for post-crisis travel • Support for the entertainment industry by subsidising large-scale live and sporting events • Subsidies and/or tax relief to liqueur manufactures • Etc. etc.
If government declares state of emergency…
Main measures governors will be able to execute
Request residents to refrain from going out Expropriate or request the sale of specified
other than when urgent and unavoidable goods with the owners’ prior consent
Request or issue instructions on restrictions on Request or issue instructions on designated
the use of school buildings, childcare facilities, sellers of medical products to distribute
entertainment establishments, events, etc. medical products and equipment
Conduct surveys and surveillance to prevent
Use land or buildings to open temporary rise in prices of daily necessities. Request that
medical facilities to ensure medical provision relevant business associations stabilise prices
of daily necessities
Extend end-dates on administrative rights and
Request/instruct designated transport business
interests. Secure finance for emergency
operators to transport emergency supplies
situations from public financial institutionsPolitical implications of the crisis
The public response
47% now believe the government is handling it well 90% are strongly or somewhat concerned about the impact
(as of 27-29 March) of COVID-19 on Japan’s economy (as of 10 March)
Public response to the government’s handling of the crisis Concerns regarding the impact of the coronavirus on
(as of 27-29 March) Japanese economy (10 March)
4%
1%
21-23 Strongly concerned
Feb 40 50 5%
Concerned to some
degree
Not concerned very
30% much
27-29
Mar 47 44
60% Not concerned at all
0 20 40 60 80 100 Other
Believe the government is handling well
Do not believe the government is handling well
Residents in Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, Views on priority economic countermeasures
Saitama, and Yamanashi (27-29 March)
Support for households
5%
February 43 56 14% Management of
34% employment stability
Support for financing of
companies
March 83 15
19%
Consumption stimulus
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Other
Refraining from going outside homes than usual
28%
Going outside homes as usual0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Favourable
Unfavourable
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Abe Cabinet approval ratings
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Increasing favourable ratings and decreasing unfavourable ratings
Jan-19
Apr-19
17
Jul-19
March 2020
Oct-19
Favourable: 43%
Unfavourable: 41%
Jan-20
Apr-2010
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
LDP
SDP
Oct-13
Komeito
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
JCP
Jan-16
Political party support rates
Apr-16
DP→DPFP
Jul-16
Oct-16
Reiwa Shinsengumi
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
JIP
Jan-18
CDP
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
36.5%
Jul-19
March 2020
Guard the national from NHK
Oct-19
Jan-20
11
Apr-20Upcoming political schedule
7 Apr Cabinet to decide FY2020 supplementary budget
2020
26 Apr Shizuoka 4 constituency by-election (House of Reps)
By Golden Week FY2020 supplementary budget to be approved by Diet
?
10-12 Jun G7 Summit (by videoconference)
Mid-Jun Government to decide 2020 “Honebuto”
17 Jun Current Diet Session Ends – possible extension
5 Jul Tokyo Gubernatorial Election
? Extraordinary Diet Session
1 Nov Second referendum on Osaka Metropolis Plan
3 Nov US Presidential Election
21-22 Nov G20 Summit @ Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
?
End of Dec Cabinet Decides FY2021 Budget Bill
2021 Jan-Jun Ordinary Diet Session
23 Jul-5 Sep Games of the XXXII Olympiad and XVI Paralympics
30 Sep End of Current LDP Presidency Term
17 Oct Latest Date to Conduct General ElectionImpact on deliberations in the Diet
New legislation
• Digital platforms law
o Setting rules on the practices of digital platforms companies
o Bill submitted to the Diet on 18 February but schedule of deliberations sliding
• Super City Initiative
o Creating cities that use AI, big data and other advanced technologies.
o Bill submitted on 13 March but schedule of deliberations sliding
• 5G promotion
o Promoting supply and development of 5G along with cyber security and providing
support for the adoption of 5G
o Bill submitted on 18 February
Law revisions
• Act on Procedure of Constitutional Referendum
o Bill submitted to the House of Representatives Commission on the Constitution on 20
January, but prospects for deliberation unclear
• Energy supply resilience bill
o Measures including a new scheme to help businesses introduce renewable energy
o Bill submitted on 25 February
• Road Traffic Act
o Allows instalment of road infrastructure for automated vehicles
o Bill submitted on 3 March
13
17
• Copyright Act
o Enforcing stricter piracy penalties
o Bill submitted on 10 MarchConclusion • Although policy resources have shifted to deal with the coronavirus crisis, other policy discussions are still progressing too – digital transformation, healthcare reform, constitutional amendment, energy supply, etc. • Massive economic stimulus from the government is leading to new initiatives that will have to be launched and funded in a very short period of time. • Postponing the Olympics is creating a new political dynamic, including the prospect of elections earlier than previously expected, once the most acute period of crisis is over. LDP endorsing Koike for Tokyo gubernatorial election in July feeds into the new dynamic. • Possibility of Ordinary Diet session extension has increased with the postponement of the Olympics. • Despite early criticism of Abe’s handling of the crisis, support for him and his Cabinet has risen because of the measures taken and has, somehow, strengthened his position. Even so, a prolonged economic slump could pose unpresented political challenges. • Opposition remains split and weak – prospects of elections and extended Diet session may provide new incentives to try to align but attempts so far have largely failed.
The GR Group GR Japan GR Group Asia (Washington D.C.) Juzen Building 101 1440 G Street NW Nagatacho 2-9-6, Washington Chiyoda-ku, D.C. 20005 Tokyo USA 100-0014, Japan GR Japan Osaka Office GR Group (London Office) Hilton Plaza West Office Tower 18F Kensington Pavilion Umeda 2-2-2 96 Kensington High Street Kita-ku London W14 4SG Osaka 530-0001 UK GR Korea Tel: +81 (0)3 6205 4205 Samseong Building 16F Fax: +81 (0)3 6205 4206 Teheran-ro 623 Mail: info@gr-group.com Gangnam-gu, Seoul 06173 Republic of Korea
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