Investment in the Chilean mining industry Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 - Cochilco
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Investment in the Chilean mining
industry
Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027
DEPP 05/2018
Intellectual Property Register
© N° 295.314Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 I
Executive Summary
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 II
Executive Summary
For private companies and the government, it is important to have a projection of the future
development of mining activity in the country, based on information about investment over the next
ten years, including not only copper but also gold, silver, iron, lithium and industrial minerals. For
over 12 years, this has, therefore, been a fundamental line of work of the Chilean Copper
Commission (COCHILCO).
In its 2018 version, this survey of mining investment considers projects with start-up dates in the
decade from 2018 to 2027 of which there are 44, valued at a total of US$65,747 million.
This figure is the result of adjustments to reflect the start-up in 2017 of seven initiatives out of the
47 considered in the previous survey, an investment reduction of US$1,948 million due to CAPEX
optimizations in some projects, the exit from the portfolio of two industrial minerals projects that
are seeking to improve their engineering and the entry of six new projects valued at US$5,902
million. These cautious changes in mining investment are an unequivocal signal of a year of
stabilization in the industry, with a view to growing in the coming years in line with substantial
improvements in world market conditions and our country’s economic development.
2017 portfolio vs. 2018 portfolio
MUS$ - 776 - 2,286 +5,902
- 1,948
70,000 2 projects 7 projects 6 projects
7 projects
60,000
50,000
40,000
64,856 65,747
30,000 47 projects 44 projects
20,000
10,000
0,000
2017 portfolio Restructured Start operation Investment New projects 2018 PORTFOLIO
adjust.
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
This is best seen when comparing projects with a higher probability of materialization within the
expected timeframe and those where this probability is lower. The first group, which corresponds
to base and probable initiatives, totals US$36,257 million, with 25 projects that represent 55.1% of
the total portfolio.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 III
The second group of possible and potential projects, which are more prone to be affected by
changes in market conditions, corresponds to 19 initiatives valued at US$29,490 million and
represents 44.9% of the total portfolio.
Out of six new projects incorporated this year, three are in copper mining: the Collahuasi
Complementary Installations 170 ktpd project for US$302 million; the Zaldívar Operational
Continuity project for US$100 million; and the NuevaUnión Phases II and III projects for US$3,700
million. The others are the Salares Norte gold project of Gold Fields, valued at US$1,000 million, and
two lithium projects: SQM Salar’s brownfield Lithium Carbonate Expansion to 180 ktpy project for
US$450 million (which would complement the Salar del Carmen Expansion project included in the
2017 portfolio) and Maricunga Salts Production, a greenfield project by SIMCO SpA, a company in
the Errázuriz Group, for US$350 million.
Copper mining continues to predominate in the 2018 portfolio, with 32 projects that, at US$59,103
million, account for 89.9% of the total investment. Although this is down on the 2017 portfolio (36
projects for US$59,235 million), the contribution that these projects would make in terms of output
is larger than in 2017 and, indeed, the largest in the last three years, following the sharp drop in
investment seen in 2014.
Historical copper portfolios and their contribution to output
100,000 5,0
55,875
MUS$
55,328
Mt fine copper
90,000 4,5
43,213
80,000 4,0
3.5
70,000 3.3 3,5
60,000 3,0
2.2
50,000 2,5
40,000 2,0
30,000 1,5
20,000 1,0
10,000 0,5
0,000 0,0
Investment in copper Contribution to copper output
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
Along with copper, investment in lithium stands out this year, with four projects valued at US$1,280
million and representing 1.9% of the portfolio.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 IV
Contents
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 V
Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... II
Contents ............................................................................................................................................V
List of Figures .................................................................................................................................VIII
List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................VIII
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 2
1. Investment in the Chilean mining industry, 2018-2027 ............................................................. 4
1.1. Conditionality of investment.............................................................................................. 5
1.1.2. Indirect determinants of conditionality ................................................................... 7
1.2. Investment by region ......................................................................................................... 8
1.3. Origin of investment ........................................................................................................ 12
2. Estimate of annual distribution of investment in portfolio projects ........................................ 15
2.1. Distribution of investment in copper mining ................................................................... 16
2.2. Distribution of investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals ...................................... 17
3.1. Contribution to copper output ......................................................................................... 20
3.2. Contribution to output of molybdenum, gold, silver and iron .......................................... 21
3.3. Contribution to output of lithium and other industrial minerals ...................................... 22
4. Comparison of mining investment portfolios to 2018 ................................................................. 24
4.1. Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios ......................................................................... 24
4.2. Historical comparison of portfolios .................................................................................. 29
5. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 34
Origin of investment ........................................................................................................ 34
Purpose of investment ..................................................................................................... 34
Region of Chile ................................................................................................................. 35
Maximum contribution to output .................................................................................... 35
Conditionality of investment............................................................................................ 36
APPENDIX 1: Methodology .............................................................................................................. 38
1. Coverage .................................................................................................................................. 38
2. Attributes of projects and condition of materialization .......................................................... 38
2.1. Condition of materialization ............................................................................................ 38
2.2. Type of project ................................................................................................................. 39
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 VI
2.3. Stage of advance .............................................................................................................. 40
2.4. Environmental permits (SEA) ........................................................................................... 40
2.5. Start-up date .................................................................................................................... 40
3. Investment by Codelco and sources of information ................................................................ 41
4. Private-sector investment and sources of information ........................................................... 42
5. Methodological criteria for estimating start-up date .............................................................. 42
APPENDIX 2: Description of investment projects in copper mining ................................................ 44
1. State copper mining ................................................................................................................ 44
1.1. Codelco structural projects - www.codelco.cl .................................................................. 44
2. Large-scale private copper mining sector ................................................................................ 48
2.1. Antofagasta Minerals - www.antofagasta.co.uk .............................................................. 48
2.2. BHP - www.bhp.com ........................................................................................................ 50
2.3. Capstone Mining - www.capstonemining.com ................................................................ 51
2.4. Doña Inés de Collahuasi - www.collahuasi.cl ................................................................... 52
2.5. Freeport McMoRan - www.fcx.com ................................................................................. 53
2.6. Goldcorp / Teck - www.nuevaunion.cl ............................................................................. 54
2.7. KGHM - www.sgscm.cl ..................................................................................................... 55
2.8. Lundin Mining - www.sgscm.cl ........................................................................................ 56
2.9. Mantos Copper ................................................................................................................ 57
2.10. Teck - www.teck.com .......................................................................................... 58
3. Medium-scale copper mining sector ....................................................................................... 59
3.1. Central Asia Metals PLC - www.centralasiametals.com ................................................... 59
3.2. COPEC - www.empresascopec.cl ..................................................................................... 60
3.3. Hot Chili - www.hotchili.net.au ........................................................................................ 61
3.4. Pucobre - www.pucobre.cl ............................................................................................... 61
4. Metallurgical plants ................................................................................................................. 62
4.1. Ecometales - www.ecometales.cl .................................................................................... 62
4.2. ENAMI – www.enami.cl ................................................................................................... 63
4.3. Molymet – www.molymet.cl ........................................................................................... 64
APPENDIX 3: Description of investment projects in gold and silver mining .................................... 65
1. Rio2 Limited - www.rio2.com .................................................................................................. 65
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 VII
2. Gold Fields – www.goldfields.com........................................................................................... 66
3. Kingsgate Consolidate Ltd. - www.kingsgate.com.au .............................................................. 67
4. Kinross - www.kinross.com ..................................................................................................... 68
APPENDIX 4: Description of investment projects in iron mining ..................................................... 69
1. Admiralty Resources ................................................................................................................ 69
2. Andes Iron - www.conocedominga.cl ...................................................................................... 70
APPENDIX 5: Description of investment projects in industrial minerals .......................................... 71
1. Albemarle ................................................................................................................................ 71
2. SQM S.A. - www.sqm.cl ........................................................................................................... 72
3. SIMCO SpA ............................................................................................................................... 75
APPENDIX 6: Units of measurement and abbreviations .................................................................. 76
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 VIII
List of Figures
Figure 1: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by condition .....................................................5
Figure 2: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by probability of materialization ......................6
Figure 3: Investment portfolio by region, copper mining and other mining ......................................9
Figure 4: Investment portfolio by region and condition of projects .................................................10
Figure 5: Investment portfolio by country of origin (MMUS$ and %) ..............................................12
Figure 6: Annualized investment, materialized and pending, by type of mining ..............................15
Figure 7: 2017 portfolio vs. 2018 portfolio .......................................................................................25
Figure 8: Investment portfolios surveyed by COCHILCO, 2006-2018 ...............................................29
Figure 9: Projects starting operation between 2006 and 2017 ........................................................30
Figure 10: New projects entering the portfolio between 2007 and 2018 ........................................30
Figure 11: Historical copper portfolios and their contribution to output .........................................31
Figure 12: Capital intensity per copper project vs. capital intensity per ton of fine Cu contributed 31
List of Tables
Table 1: Portfolio of mining projects in Chile, 2018-2027 ..................................................................4
Table 2: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by sector and condition of projects...................5
Table 3: Investment portfolio by determinants of conditionality.......................................................7
Table 4: Investment portfolio by type of project and end product ....................................................8
Table 5: Investment in copper mining by region and condition of projects .....................................11
Table 6: Investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals by region and condition of projects .......12
Table 7: Investment in copper mining by country of origin and condition (MMUS$) ......................13
Table 8: Investment in gold, iron lithium and industrial minerals by country of origin and condition
(MMUS$) ..........................................................................................................................................13
Table 9: Annualized mining investment in Chile, 2018-2027, by probability of materialization and
sector ...............................................................................................................................................16
Table 10: Annual distribution of investment in copper mining by condition of projects (MMUS$) .17
Table 11: Annual distribution of investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals by condition of
projects (MMUS$) ............................................................................................................................18
Table 12: Copper projects and maximum output .............................................................................20
Table 13: Projects contributing to molybdenum, gold, silver and iron output by 2028 ...................21
Table 14: Projects contributing to output of lithium and other industrial minerals .........................22
Table 15: Principal changes in investment portfolio, 2018 vs. 2017 ................................................26
Table 16: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by condition of projects ...................................26
Table 17: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by mining sector ..............................................26
Table 18: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by mining sector and condition of projects .....27
Table 19: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by region..........................................................28
Table 20: Conditions of materialization of a project ........................................................................39
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018 -2027 1
Introduction
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018 -2027 2
Introduction
This study, which corresponds to an update of the annual report on investment in the Chilean mining
industry over the next decade, seeks to provide relevant information about the mining projects that
currently exist in Chile, together with a new forecast for investment during the next decade, based
on information disclosed by the projects’ owners.
The structure of the study is as follows:
a) Analysis of the investment required for the portfolio of projects in copper mining, gold and
silver mining, iron mining and some industrial minerals, with respect to the conditionality of
the initiatives and their purpose, the regional distribution of the investment and its country of
origin. A description of each of the projects can be found in Appendix 2 (copper mining),
Appendix 3 (gold and silver mining) and Appendix 4 (industrial minerals: lithium, iodine,
nitrates, potassium salts and titanium oxide).
b) An estimate of the investment flow represented by the portfolio, indicating the amounts
already invested, the annualized flow for the next five years and the amount to be invested
subsequently. This forecast is, however, only a reference and does not represent a commitment
on the part of the projects’ owners.
c) An estimate of the portfolio’s maximum contribution to output of copper, molybdenum,
gold, iron, lithium and industrial minerals. A more detailed analysis of the outlook for copper
production is part of a different line of work of COCHILCO.
d) A comparison of the changes between the present and previous portfolios with respect to
the amount of investment, number of projects, conditionality of the projects, purpose of the
investment and the regional distribution of projects. In addition, earlier surveys and their
evolution to date are reviewed as regards the materialization of the projects, the new projects
that entered each portfolio and their relation with the price of copper, the main commodity
considered here.
Finally, the study sets out the main conclusions that can be drawn from the information presented.
It should be noted that a project’s inclusion in the portfolio, after fulfilling the necessary conditions,
is not a guarantee of its materialization on the terms and in the timeframe planned by the company,
but does show the interest of the state and the large and medium-scale private mining sectors in
our geological resources, our mining market and our long-term mining policy.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 3
Chapter 1:
Investment in the Chilean mining industry
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 4
1. Investment in the Chilean mining industry, 2018-2027
This section provides general information about the projects considered in the 2018-2027 portfolio.
It comprises 44 initiatives valued at US$65,747 million as shown in Table 1, which also includes the
amount of the investment, its conditionality, its purpose and the region in which it would be located,
among other information.
Table 1: Portfolio of mining projects in Chile, 2018-2027
Start-up Mining Type of Stage of Environ. Investment
Project Operator Region Condition
date sector project advance permits (MMUS$)
2018-2022 OTHER DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS Codelco Chile State - Cu Several Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 2,907
2018-2022 FURE PROJECTS Codelco Chile Met. plants Several Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 1,972
2018-2022 TAILINGS DAMS Codelco Chile State - Cu Several Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 1,380
2018-2022 INFORMATION PROJECTS Codelco Chile State - Cu Several New POSSIBLE Feasibility N/A 1,375
2018 MOLYNOR EXPANSION Molynor Met. plants Antofagasta Expansion BASE Implementation EIA approved 240
2018 CANDELARIA 2030 CCM Candelaria Large min. - Cu Atacama Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 460
2019 MARIPOSA Admiralty Minerals Chile PTY LTD Iron Atacama New BASE Implementation EIA approved 70
2019 LA NEGRA PLANT EXPANSION - PHASE 3 Rockwood Litio Ltda. Lithium Antofagasta Expansion BASE Implementation EIA approved 300
2019 PEDRO DE VALDIVIA DIS. & REF. PLANT SQM Nitratos S.A. Ind. min. Antofagasta Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 140
2019 CHUQUICAMATA SUBTERRÁNEA Codelco Chuquicamata Div. State - Cu Antofagasta Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 5,554
2019 ORCOMA SQM Ind. min. Tarapacá New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 230
2019 COLLAHUASI COMPL. INST. 170 KTPD Doña Inés de Collahuasi Large min. - Cu Tarapacá Expansion PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 302
2019 PLAYA VERDE Copper Bay Med. min. - Cu Atacama New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA submitted 95
2020 SALAR DEL CARMEN EXPANSION SQM Salar S.A. Lithium Antofagasta Expansion BASE Implementation EIA approved 180
2020 SPENCE GROWTH OPTION Pampa Norte Large min. - Cu Antofagasta New BASE Implementation EIA approved 3,300
2020 MANTOS BLANCOS CONC. DE-BOTTLE Mantos Copper Large min. - Cu Antofagasta Expansion BASE Implementation EIA approved 181
2022 DIEGO DE ALMAGRO CM Sierra Norte S.A. Med. min. - Cu Atacama New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 597
2020 LOS PELAMBRES MARG. EXPAN. PHASE I Minera Los Pelambres Large min. - Cu Coquimbo Expansion PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 1,050
2020 CONCENTRATE LEACHING Ecometales Limited Met. plants Antofagasta New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 370
2020 SALARES NORTE Gold Fields Salares Norte SpA Gold Atacama New POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA submitted 1,000
2020 MARICUNGA SALTS PRODUCTION SIMCO SpA Lithium Atacama New POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA submitted 350
2021 MINE-PLANT TRANSPORT Codelco Andina Div. State - Cu Valparaíso Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 1,321
2021 MANTOVERDE DEVELOPMENT Mantos Copper Large min. - Cu Atacama New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 832
2021 NUEVA ESPERANZA – ARQUEROS Laguna Resources Chile Gold Atacama New POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA submitted 250
2021 CERRO MARICUNGA Atacama Pacific Gold Gold Atacama New POSSIBLE Feasibility Without EIA 587
2021 RAJO INCA Codelco Salvador Div. State - Cu Atacama Expansion POTENTIAL Prefeasibility Without EIA 817
2021 PRODUCTORA SM El Águila Ltda. Med. min. - Cu Atacama New POTENTIAL Prefeasibility Without EIA 725
2022 CENTINELA DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT (*) Minera Centinela Large min. - Cu Antofagasta New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 4,350
2022 ZALDÍVAR OPERATIONAL CONTINUITY CM Zaldívar SpA Large min. - Cu Antofagasta Replacement PROBABLE Feasibility EIA submitted 100
2022 SANTO DOMINGO Santo Domingo SCM Large min. - Cu Atacama New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 1,700
2022 QUEBRADA BLANCA HYPOGENE CM Teck Quebrada Blanca Large min. - Cu Tarapacá New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 4,700
2022 LITHIUM CARBONATE EXP. 180 KTPY SQM Salar S.A. Lithium Antofagasta Expansion POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA submitted 450
2022 LA COIPA PHASE 7 Kinross Minera Chile Ltda. Gold Atacama Replacement POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA approved 200
2022 SIERRA GORDA EXPANSION 230 KTPD Sierra Gorda SCM Large min. - Cu Antofagasta Expansion POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA approved 2,000
2022 LOS PELAMBRES MARG. EXP. PHASE II Minera Los Pelambres Large min. - Cu Coquimbo Expansion POSSIBLE Feasibility Without EIA 500
2022 EL ESPINO Pucobre Med. min. - Cu Coquimbo New POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA approved 624
2022 NUEVA PAIPOTE Fundición Hernan Videla Lira Met. plants Atacama Expansion POSSIBLE Feasibility Without EIA 646
2023 NEW MINE LEVEL Codelco Div. El Teniente State - Cu O'Higgins Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 3,926
2023 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASE I NuevaUnión SpA Large min. - Cu Atacama New POTENTIAL Feasibility Without EIA 3,500
2023 DOMINGA Andes Iron SpA Iron Coquimbo New POTENTIAL Feasibility Without EIA 2,888
2024 RT SULFIDES PHASE II Codelco Radomiro Tomic Div. State - Cu Antofagasta New POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA approved 2,154
2026 EL ABRA CONCENTRATOR (e) CCM El Abra Large min. - Cu Antofagasta New POTENTIAL Feasibility Without EIA 5,000
2026 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASES II & III NuevaUnión SpA Large min. - Cu Atacama New POTENTIAL Feasibility Without EIA 3,700
2026 ANDINA EXPANSION Codelco Andina Div. State - Cu Valparaíso Expansion POTENTIAL Prefeasibility Without EIA 2,725
Total investment in 2018-2027 portfolio (MMUS$) 65,747
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
This information is used for a more detailed analysis of the portfolio as follows: Section 1.1 reviews
the conditionality of projects; Section 1.2 looks at investment by region, analyzed according to the
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 5
target mining sector and the projects’ conditionality; and Section 1.3 analyzes the investment by
country of origin.
1.1. Conditionality of investment
Using the concept of conditionality of the investment, developed by COCHILCO on the basis of the
association and interaction between different variables that affect the development of investment
projects 1, it is possible to assess with a little more accuracy the likelihood of implementation within
the timeframe estimated by their owners and respective engineering teams. Figure 1 shows the
distribution of investment by condition while Table 2 shows its distribution by mining sector and
condition.
Figure 1: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by condition
POTENTIAL BASE
MMUS$ 19,355 MMUS$ 21,931
29.4% 33.4%
7 projects 14 projects
Probability of
materialization
POSSIBLE PROBABLE
MMUS$ 10,135 MMUS$ 14,326
15.4% 21.8%
12 projects 11 projects
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
Table 2: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by sector and condition of projects
TOTAL BASE PROBABLE POSSIBLE POTENTIAL
SECTOR N° Investment N° Investment N° Investment N° Investment N° Investment
projects (MMUS$) projects (MMUS$) projects (MMUS$) projects (MMUS$) projects (MMUS$)
CODELCO 9 22,159 5 15,088 0 0 2 3,529 2 3,542
Large-scale private 15 31,675 3 3,941 7 13,034 2 2,500 3 12,200
Medium-scale private 4 2,041 0 0 2 692 1 624 1 725
Industrial plants 4 3,228 2 2,212 1 370 1 646 0 0
Subtotal copper 32 59,103 10 21,241 10 14,096 6 7,299 6 16,467
Gold and silver 4 2,037 0 0 0 0 4 2,037 0 0
Iron 2 2,958 1 70 0 0 0 0 1 2,888
Lithium 4 1,280 2 480 0 0 2 800 0 0
Industrial minerals 2 370 1 140 1 230 0 0 0 0
Subtotal other minerals 12 6,645 4 690 1 230 6 2,837 1 2,888
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
1
For more information about the methodology, see Appendix 1, “Attributes of projects and condition of materialization”.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 6
Based on the likelihood that the projects can or cannot be implemented in the timeframe estimated
by the mining company, it is possible to classify them as base or probable in a subgroup referred to
as “with a higher probability of materialization” or as possible or potential in a subgroup referred to
as “with a lower probability of materialization”.
Figure 2: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by probability of materialization
WITH LOWER
PROBABILITY
MUS$ 29,490
45%
19 projects
WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITY
MUS$ 36,257
55%
25 projects
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
The first subgroup of projects “with a higher probability of materialization” includes 25 base or
probable projects, representing an investment of US$36,257 million:
- 14 base projects with an investment of US$21,931 million in which Codelco continues to be
the predominant player, accounting for 68.8% of this investment;
- 11 probable projects valued at US$14,326 million of which the large-scale private mining
sector accounts for 91%.
The second subgroup of projects “with a lower probability of materialization” includes 19 projects
for a total of US$29,490 million:
- 12 possible projects valued at US$10,135 million of which Codelco and large-scale private
companies together account for 59.5% while copper mining as a whole accounts for 72%;
- 6 potential projects valued at US$19,355 million of which large-scale copper mining accounts
for 63%.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 7
1.1.1. Determinants of investment conditionality
For the sake of a better understanding of the classification of projects by conditionality, the table
below shows the variables affecting a project’s probability of materialization.
Table 3: Investment portfolio by determinants of conditionality
2018-2027
Variable Investment
% of total N° projects
(MMUS$)
Type of project
New 34,697 52.8% 21
Replacement 17,960 27.3% 10
Expansion 13,091 19.9% 13
Stage of project
Implementation 21,931 33.4% 14
Feasibility 39,549 60.2% 27
Prefeasibility 4,267 6.5% 3
Environmental permits
RCA approved 41,040 62.4% 27
EIA/DIA suspended 2,888 4.4% 1
EIA/DIA submitted 2,245 3.4% 6
Without EIA/DIA 19,574 29.8% 10
Investment and materialization period
2018-2022 41,854 63.7% 37
After 2022 23,893 36.3% 7
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
As can be observed, 52.8% of the initiatives correspond to new projects and the remaining 47.2% to
replacement or expansion projects. In addition, 60.2% are at the feasibility stage while 33.4% are
already being implemented.
Environmental permits are required for the construction phase and 62.4% of the portfolio has
completed this stage. When compared to projects in implementation, it can be seen that there is a
remnant of 13 projects that have not yet begun construction. These projects are the group that
requires more attention and analysis on the part of the authorities.
Finally, 63.7% of the portfolio will be implemented within the next five years, leaving only
seveninitiatives for the following five years.
1.1.2. Indirect determinants of conditionality
The other variables that it is useful to consider, although they do not have a direct bearing on
conditionality, are whether a project is brownfield or greenfield and the end product sought by the
initiative (Table 4).
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 8
Table 4: Investment portfolio by type of project and end product
2018-2027
Variable Investment
% of total N° projects
(MMUS$)
Type of project
Brownfield 40,290 61.3% 25
Greenfield 25,458 38.7% 19
End product
Copper concentrate 48,177 73.3% 21
SX-EW cathodes 470 0.7% 2
Mixed 7,598 11.6% 6
Molybdenum 240 0.4% 1
Gold and silver 2,037 3.1% 4
FURE (ER anodes/cathodes) 2,618 4.0% 2
Iron concentrate and pellet feed 2,958 4.5% 2
Lithium carbonate/hydroxide 1,280 1.9% 4
Iodine/nitrates 370 0.6% 2
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
A lack of greenfield projects is apparent in the table above, which shows that only 38.7% of initiatives
are of this type. This is in line with the thesis that most current projects are geared to operational
continuity, rather than to increasing output. This is the case not only for copper, but also gold,
lithium and industrial minerals.
The table also shows that 73.3% of projects would produce copper concentrate, rather than SX-EW
cathodes via leaching, highlighting the change in the production structure of Chile’s copper industry
(without considering the 11.6% of mixed oxide and sulfide projects). In the case of industrial
minerals, production of nitrates and iodine has been displaced by lithium carbonate and hydroxide
projects, reflecting the boom in electromobility and the use of lithium in batteries. In all, thanks to
the development of copper sulfide deposits, copper continues to be the most important sector in
the portfolio.
1.2. Investment by region
Figure 3 shows the regional distribution of investment in the copper, gold, silver, iron and industrial
minerals sectors.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 9
Figure 3: Investment portfolio by region, copper mining and other mining
0,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Arica y Parinacota
Tarapacá MUS$ 5,232
MUS$ 28,025
Antofagasta
Atacama MUS$ 16,247
Coquimbo MUS$ 5,062
Valparaíso MUS$ 5,190
Santiago
O'Higgins MMUS$ 5,992
Copper Other minerals
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
The Antofagasta Region continues to lead mining investment, accounting for 42.6% of the portfolio.
Out of investment in this region, 96.2% corresponds to copper. The Antofagasta Region is followed
by the Atacama Region, with 24.7% of the portfolio. Here, copper is also important, accounting for
84.9% of investment. The O’Higgins Region takes third place, with a 9.1% share of investment, all of
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 10
which corresponds to copper. It is important to note that 75.3% of investment corresponds to
northern Chile where 92.4% of it would be in copper.
A more detailed analysis can be seen in the distribution of investment by region and conditionality
(Figure 4).
Figure 4: Investment portfolio by region and condition of projects
Probable
MUS$ 5,232
100%
Tarapacá
Base
Potential MUS$ 13,037
MUS$ 5,000 47%
18%
Antofagasta
Base
MUS$ 740
Potential 4% Probable
MUS$ 8,742 Possible
MUS$ 5,168 MUS$ 4,820
54% 17%
18%
Atacama
Potential
Probable
MUS$ 2,888
MUS$ 1,050
Probable 57%
21%
Possible MUS$ 3,224
MUS$ 3,541 20%
22%
Coquimbo
Base Possible
MUS$ 2,329 MUS$ 1,124
45% 22%
Possible Base
MUS$ 167 MUS$ 5,825
Valparaíso 3% 97%
Potential
Possible
MUS$ 2,725
MUS$ 135
52%
3%
O'Higgins
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 11
According to the data collected, copper mining accounts for 89.9% of the portfolio, with 28 projects
corresponding to Codelco, large and medium-scale private copper mining companies and state and
private metallurgical plants.
Table 5: Investment in copper mining by region and condition of projects
Total Base Probable Possible Potential
REGION Investment N° % of total Investment N° Investment N° Investment N° Investment N°
(MMUS$) projects investment (MMUS$) projects (MMUS$) projects (MMUS$) projects (MMUS$) projects
Tarapacá 5,002 2 7.6% 0 0 5,002 2 0 0 0 0
Antofagasta 26,955 10 41.0% 12,417 4 4,820 3 4,718 2 5,000 1
Atacama 13,790 10 21.0% 670 1 3,224 4 1,155 1 8,742 4
Coquimbo 2,174 3 3.3% 0 0 1,050 1 1,124 2 0 0
Valparaíso 5,190 2 7.9% 2,329 1 0 0 135 0 2,725 1
O'Higgins 5,992 1 9.1% 5,825 1 0 0 167 0 0 0
TOTAL 59,103 28 89.9% 21,241 7 14,096 10 7,299 5 12,767 6
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
As shown in Figure 3, most investment in copper mining corresponds to the Antofagasta Region and
63.9% of this investment has a higher probability of materialization in the timeframe estimated by
the projects’ owners (base + probable projects), with seven initiatives valued as shown in Table 5.
The Atacama Region is the second most important destination for investment in copper mining.
However, 71.8% of this investment has a lower probability of materialization in the expected
timeframe (possible + potential projects).
The O’Higgins and Valparaíso Regions take third and fourth place in copper investment, respectively.
In the former, 97.2% of the investment has a higher probability of materialization while, in the latter,
the figure drops to 44.9%. In both regions, Codelco, with its divisional growth and environmental
improvement projects, plays a key role.
The Tarapacá Region takes fifth place, thanks to the Quebrada Blanca Hypogene Project and the
Collahuasi Complementary Installations 170 ktpd project, both of which are probable and poised to
begin construction work. The Coquimbo Region also has a portfolio of projects but this is still at the
stage of engineering studies and has a lower probability of materialization within the expected
timeframe (51.7% of projects are possible or potential).
Table 6 shows the regional distribution of investment in the gold, iron, lithium and industrial
minerals sectors.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 12
Table 6: Investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals sectors by region and condition of projects
Total Base Probable Possible Potential
REGION Investment N° % of total Investment N° Investment N° Investment N° Investment N°
(MMUS$) projects investment (MMUS$) projects (MMUS$) projects (MMUS$) projects (MMUS$) projects
Tarapacá 230 1 0.4% 0 0 230 1 0 0 0 0
Antofagasta 1,070 4 1.7% 620 3 0 0 450 1 0 0
Atacama 2,457 6 4.0% 70 1 0 0 2,387 5 0 0
Coquimbo 2,888 1 4.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,888 1
TOTAL 6,645 12 10.7% 690 4 230 1 2,837 6 2,888 1
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
Investment in other mining sectors accounts for 10.7% of the 2018-2027 portfolio with 12 projects,
located between the Tarapacá and Coquimbo Regions.
Projects in sectors such as gold, iron, lithium and industrial minerals are mostly possible or potential
(86.2% and seven projects), indicating that sectors other than copper still represent a higher risk of
projects not being implemented in the timeframe envisaged in their engineering studies.
1.3. Origin of investment
Chile stands out as a mining country in which local public and private investment in the industry is
important. However, Chile has an open economy and, as discussed in the next chapter, there is an
important group of international companies that invest in Chile, either as the direct owners of an
operation or as partners of the operators of new initiatives.
Figure 5: Investment portfolio by country of origin (MMUS$ and %)
Others*
Japan MUS$ 4,134
6% Chile
MUS$ 1,669
MUS$ 39,385
3%
US 60%
MUS$ 2,850
4%
Australia
MUS$ 4,200
6%
Canada
MUS$ 13,510
21%
(*) United Kingdom, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan and Switzerland.
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
The investment in the 2018-2027 portfolio has its origin in 11 countries, led by Chile where Codelco
and Antofagasta Minerals together account for 82% of investment. Chile is followed by Canada, with
Teck, Goldcorp and Capstone Mining accounting for 84.5% of the inflow from this country.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 13
The third most important source of investment is Australia, represented principally by BHP which,
through its Spence Growth Option project, accounts for 78.6% of Australian investment.
Australia is followed by the United States, with Freeport McMoRan and its El Abra Mill project
(89.5% of US investment). Japan is in fifth place, with Sumitomo accounting for 59.4% of investment
from that country.
Finally, the group of “others” comprises the United Kingdom, Poland, South Africa, South Korea,
Taiwan and Switzerland, which together account for 5% of the investment envisaged in the portfolio.
Table 7 and 8 show a breakdown of the figures in Figure 5, separating copper from other minerals.
Table 7: Investment in copper mining by country of origin and condition (MMUS$)
Country of % of
Amount Base Probable Possible Potential
origin investment
Chile 35,645 54.22% 17,300 7,109 5,099 6,137
Canada 12,404 18.87% 368 4,836 0 7,200
Australia 3,880 5.90% 3,300 0 0 580
US 2,550 3.88% 0 0 0 2,550
Japan 1,648 2.51% 92 456 1,100 0
United Kingdom 1,233 1.88% 181 1,052 0 0
Poland 1,100 1.67% 0 0 1,100 0
South Korea 510 0.78% 0 510 0 0
Switzerland 133 0.20% 0 133 0 0
TOTAL 59,103 89.9% 21,241 14,096 7,299 16,467
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
Table 8: Investment in gold, iron, lithium and industrial minerals by country of origin and condition
(MMUS$)
Country of % of
Amount Base Probable Possible Potential
origin investment
Chile 3,740 5.69% 211 152 489 2,888
Canada 1,107 1.68% 102 74 931 0
South Africa 1,000 1.52% 0 0 1,000 0
Australia 320 0.49% 70 0 250 0
US 300 0.46% 300 0 0 0
Taiwan 158 0.24% 0 0 158 0
Japan 21 0.03% 7 5 9 0
TOTAL 6,645 10.1% 690 230 2,837 2,888
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 14
Chapter 2:
Estimate of annual distribution of investment in
portfolio projects
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 15
2. Estimate of annual distribution of investment in portfolio projects
This chapter provides a breakdown by year of the investment to be materialized over the next ten
years. For reasons of clarity, the information is grouped according to when the investment would
be materialized defining three principal periods:
- Before 2018: US$10,501 million, equivalent to 16% of the portfolio, corresponds to projects
materialized before 2018 but which have yet to start operation.
- Short and medium-term: US$42,748 million, or 65% of the portfolio, would be materialized
in 2018-2022 when 37 of the 43 projects that make up the portfolio would start operation.
- Long-term: US$12,498 million, or 19% of the portfolio, would be materialized in 2023-2027
when the last seven projects in the portfolio would start operation.
Figure 6 shows the annual flow of the investment estimated for 2018-2027, separating copper from
“other minerals” (gold, iron, lithium and industrial minerals).
Figure 6: Annualized investment, materialized and pending, by type of mining
Copper Other minerals
14,000
12,498
12,000
10,501 10,515 10,382
10,000 13% 12% 8,782
15%
7,500
8,000 17%
MUS$
5%
5,568 100%
6,000
8%
87% 88% 85%
4,000
83% 95%
92%
2,000
0
0,000
Before 2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 - 2027
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
Estimating the investment likely in each particular year provides a clearer picture of the outlook.
However, in order to increase the robustness of the analysis, it is necessary to contrast the annual
amounts with the investment’s conditionality, based on the public information available. Table 9
shows a first estimate of annualized investment according to probability of materialization for the
state mining sector (copper) and the private sector (copper, gold, iron, lithium and industrial
minerals).
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 16
Table 9: Annualized mining investment in Chile, 2018-2027, by probability of materialization and sector
Before Subtotal 2023- % of
SECTOR AND CONDITION 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 TOTAL
2018 2018-2022 2027 investment
TOTAL 10,501 5,568 10,515 10,382 8,782 7,500 42,747 12,498 65,747 100%
Base + Probable 8,413 4,859 8,302 6,436 3,857 3,355 26,809 1,034 36,256 55.1%
Possible + Potential 2,088 709 2,213 3,946 4,925 4,145 15,938 11,464 29,491 44.9%
STATE MINING 5,233 3,238 3,765 3,408 2,274 2,875 15,560 3,983 24,777 100%
Base + Probable 4,879 2,918 3,007 2,512 1,650 1,920 12,007 174 17,060 68.9%
Possible + Potential 354 320 758 896 624 955 3,553 3,809 7,717 31.1%
PRIVATE MINING 5,268 2,330 6,750 6,974 6,509 4,625 27,187 8,515 40,970 100%
Base + Probable 3,534 1,941 5,295 3,924 2,207 1,435 14,802 860 19,196 46.9%
Possible + Potential 1,734 389 1,455 3,050 4,302 3,190 12,385 7,655 21,774 53.1%
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
As shown in Figure 2, 55% of the total portfolio corresponds to investment with a higher probability
of materialization. However, analysis of annualized investment profiles by sector indicates that,
although the private mining sector makes the largest contribution to total investment, investment
by the state sector has a higher probability of materialization in the next decade (68.9% of the base
+ probable portfolio), highlighting its importance in national investment.
Moreover, it can be seen that 23.2% of the investment more likely to materialize has already been
implemented and 73.9% will materialize within the next five years.
2.1. Distribution of investment in copper mining
Table 10 shows the annual flow of investment in copper mining by sector: Codelco, large-scale and
medium-scale private mining and metallurgical plants, ranking the investment from greater to lesser
probability of materialization within the timeframe indicated by the projects’ owners.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 17
Table 10: Annual distribution of investment in copper mining by condition of projects (MMUS$)
% of
COPPER MINING AND Before Subtotal 2023 -
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 TOTAL investme
CONDITION 2018 2018-2022 2027
nt
TOTAL 9,115 5,097 9,206 8,784 7,286 7,116 37,489 12,498 59,102 100%
Base 5,786 3,542 4,687 3,482 1,650 1,920 15,281 174 21,241 35.9%
Probable 2,506 1,030 3,141 2,916 2,207 1,435 10,729 860 14,095 23.8%
Possible 515 386 780 1,181 1,799 1,115 5,261 1,523 7,299 12%
Potential 308 139 598 1,205 1,630 2,646 6,218 9,941 16,467 28%
CODELCO 5,201 2,411 3,065 2,986 1,930 2,583 12,975 3,983 22,159 100%
Base 4,879 2,115 2,431 2,377 1,425 1,687 10,035 174 15,088 68.1%
Possible 239 252 381 334 250 550 1,767 1,523 3,529 15.9%
Potential 83 44 253 275 255 346 1,173 2,286 3,542 16.0%
LARGE-SCALE MINING 3,257 1,669 4,816 4,545 4,707 4,166 19,903 8,515 31,675 100%
Base 742 549 1,680 970 0 0 3,199 0 3,941 12.4%
Probable 2,326 950 2,711 2,545 2,207 1,435 9,848 860 13,034 41.1%
Possible 55 95 220 450 1,250 431 2,446 0 2,500 7.9%
Potential 135 75 205 580 1,250 2,300 4,410 7,655 12,200 38.5%
MEDIUM-SCALE MINING 436 90 385 750 305 75 1,605 0 2,041 100%
Probable 157 55 190 290 0 0 535 0 692 33.9%
Possible 189 15 55 110 180 75 435 0 624 30.6%
Potential 90 20 140 350 125 0 635 0 725 35.5%
MET./IND. PLANTS 221 927 940 503 344 292 3,006 0 3,228 100%
Base 165 878 576 135 225 233 2,047 0 2,212 68.5%
Probable 24 25 240 81 0 0 346 0 370 11.5%
Possible 32 24 124 287 119 59 613 0 646 20.0%
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
The table above indicates that copper projects for US$9,115 million have already been
implemented, leaving US$37,489 million for implementation over the next five years and US$12,498
million for 2023 onwards.
Out of the US$35,336 million in initiatives more likely to be implemented within the timeframe
anticipated by their owners, around 23.5% has already been implemented and around US$26,010
million is scheduled for 2018-2022, leaving US$1,034 million for 2023 onwards.
The projects with a lower probability of materialization within the expected timeframe represent an
investment of US$11,479 million over the next five years, leaving US$11,464 million for
materialization as from 2023. Only 3.5% of the total investment envisaged in this group has already
been implemented, reflecting the fact that projects are still at an early stage.
2.2. Distribution of investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals
Table 11 summarizes annual investment in the gold, iron and industrial minerals sectors.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 18
Table 11: Annual distribution of investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals by condition of projects
(MMUS$)
TYPE OF MINING AND Before Subtotal 2023 - % of
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 TOTAL
CONDITION 2018 2018-2022 2027 investment
TOTAL 1,386 471 1,309 1,598 1,497 384 5,259 0 6,645 100%
Base 98 234 320 38 0 0 592 0 690 10.4%
Probable 23 53 154 0 0 0 207 0 230 3.5%
Possible 292 164 655 1,180 447 100 2,546 0 2,837 42.7%
Potential 374 20 180 380 1,050 284 1,914 0 2,888 43.5%
GOLD 265 129 515 860 247 22 1,773 0 2,037 100%
Possible 265 129 515 860 247 22 1,773 0 2,037 100.0%
IRON 988 36 220 380 1,050 284 1,970 0 2,958 100%
Base 14 16 40 0 0 0 56 0 70 2.4%
Potential 974 20 180 380 1,050 284 1,914 0 2,888 97.6%
INDUST. MINERALS 134 306 574 358 200 78 1,516 0 1,650 100%
Base 84 218 280 38 0 0 536 0 620 37.6%
Probable 23 53 154 0 0 0 207 0 230 13.9%
Possible 27 35 140 320 200 78 773 0 800 48.5%
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
In the case of gold and iron mining, a trend seen over the past three years persists and projects are
concentrated in the subgroup with a lower probability of materialization within the expected
timeframe. For gold, investment of US$2,037 million is expected, divided into four projects of which
the last would be implemented in 2022. For iron, there are two projects worth a total of US$2,958
million of which one would be implemented in 2019 and the other not before 2023.
In the case of industrial minerals, 51.5% of the investment is base or probable. In recent years, this
sector has been driven by lithium mining, which accounts for 77.6% of the investment expected in
this subgroup.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 19
Chapter 3:
Portfolio’s maximum contribution to output,
2018
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 20
3. Portfolio’s maximum contribution to output, 2018
The amount of investment involved in the portfolio of mining projects surveyed annually by
COCHILCO is important. However, the investment’s impact on future output, with the resulting
supply chain development, is of even greater importance.
Based on the information available for the different projects, this chapter seeks to estimate the
maximum contribution they could make to the country’s mining output.
3.1. Contribution to copper output
The initiatives related to copper production are shown in Table 12.
Table 12: Copper projects and maximum output
Annual Cu
Start-up
Project Sector Condition Operator Product production
date
capacity (ton)2
2018 CANDELARIA 2030 Large min. - Cu BASE Lundin Mining Cu in conc. 33,000
2019 CHUQUICAMATA SUBTERRÁNEA State - Cu BASE Codelco Cu in conc. 360,000
2019 COLLAHUASI COMP. INSTAL. 170 KTPD Large min. - Cu PROBABLE Doña Inés de Collahuasi Cu in conc. 94,000
2019 PLAYA VERDE Med. min. - Cu PROBABLE Copper Bay Cu in conc. & SX-EW cathodes 8,640
2020 SPENCE GROWTH OPTION Large min. - Cu BASE BHP Cu in conc. 198,000
2020 MANTOS BLANCOS CONC. DE-BOTTLE. Large min. - Cu BASE Mantos Copper Cu in conc. 19,000
2020 DIEGO DE ALMAGRO Med. min. - Cu PROBABLE Copec Cu in conc. & SX-EW cathodes 43,600
2020 LOS PELAMBRES MARG. EXPAN. PHASE I Large min. - Cu PROBABLE AMSA Cu in conc. 66,000
2020 LEACHING OF CONCENTRATE Met. plants PROBABLE Codelco Fine Cu in PLS 60,000
2021 MANTOVERDE DEVELOPMENT Large min. - Cu PROBABLE Mantos Copper Cu in conc. 87,000
2021 RAJO INCA State - Cu POTENTIAL Codelco Cu in conc. 70,000
2021 PRODUCTORA Med. min. - Cu POTENTIAL Hot Chili Cu in conc. & SX-EW cathodes 59,200
2022 CENTINELA DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT (*) Large min. - Cu PROBABLE AMSA Cu in conc. 270,000
2022 ZALDÍVAR OPERATIONAL CONTINUITY Large min. - Cu PROBABLE AMSA SX-EW cathodes 126,000
2022 SANTO DOMINGO Large min. - Cu PROBABLE Capstone Mining Cu in conc. 168,300
2022 QUEBRADA BLANCA HYPOGENE Large min. - Cu PROBABLE Teck Cu in conc. 270,000
2022 SIERRA GORDA EXPANSION 230 KTPD Large min. - Cu POSSIBLE KGHM International Cu in conc. 120,000
2022 LOS PELAMBRES MARG. EXPAN. PHASE II Large min. - Cu POSSIBLE AMSA Cu in conc. 44,000
2022 EL ESPINO Med. min. - Cu POSSIBLE Pucobre Cu in conc. 35,000
2022 NUEVA PAIPOTE Met. plants POSSIBLE ENAMI Cu anodes 70,000
2023 NEW MINE LEVEL State - Cu BASE Codelco Cu in conc. 330,000
2023 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASE I Large min. - Cu POTENTIAL NuevaUnión SpA Cu-Mo-Au in conc. 175,000
2023 DOMINGA Iron POTENTIAL Andes Iron Pellet Feed (Fe) / Cu in conc. 21,000
2024 RT SULFIDES PHASE II State - Cu POSSIBLE Codelco Cu in conc. 250,000
2026 EL ABRA CONCENTRATOR (Ex EL ABRA MILL) Large min. - Cu POTENTIAL Freeport McMoRan Cu in conc. 300,000
2026 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASES II & III Large min. - Cu POTENTIAL NuevaUnión SpA Cu-Au in conc. 75,000
2026 ANDINA EXPANSION State - Cu POTENTIAL Codelco Cu in conc. 150,000
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
As shown in the table above, production of copper concentrate predominates. As a result, out of
the estimated maximum of 3.53 million tons of fine copper that the projects included in the portfolio
2
Reference production capacity based on public information; corresponds to the maximum achievable by the operation, not an estimate
of constant output.
Comisión Chilena del CobreInvestment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 21
would contribute by 2028, 95.8% would correspond to concentrate. This contribution from
concentrate would also be associated with other minerals such as molybdenum, gold and silver.
It should be borne in mind that this new output cannot simply be added to existing production
because it is necessary to take into account the natural decline in output at existing operations. In
other words, an important part of the portfolio corresponds to replacement projects or “new”
projects that completely redesign the production method of an existing operation.
3.2. Contribution to output of molybdenum, gold, silver and iron
The change in the production matrix of copper projects discussed above implies that they would
also have an impact on output of minerals such as molybdenum, gold and silver and, in some cases,
iron. A summary of their contribution, in the form of primary and secondary production, is shown
in Table 13.
Table 13: Projects contributing to molybdenum, gold, silver and iron output by 2028
Annual
Start-up
Project Sector Region Condition Operator Product production Unit
date
capacity
2018 MOLYNOR EXPANSION Met. plants Antofagasta BASE Molymet Mo oxide 50,600 ton Mo
2019 MARIPOSA Iron Atacama BASE Admiralty Resources Fe conc. 64,260 ton Fe conc.
2020 SALARES NORTE Gold Atacama POSSIBLE Gold Fields Dore 7,860 kg Au
2020 SPENCE GROWTH OPTION Gran Min. - Cu Antofagasta BASE BHP Mo Conc. 7,500 ton Mo
2021 NUEVA ESPERANZA - ARQUEROS Gold Atacama POSSIBLE Kingsgate Consolidate Ltd. Doré 250 / 100 kg Au / ton Ag
2021 CERRO MARICUNGA Gold Atacama POSSIBLE Rio2 Limited Doré 8,900 kg Au
2022 LA COIPA PHASE 7 Gold Atacama POSSIBLE Kinross Doré 6,200 kg Au
2023 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASE I Gran Min. - Cu Atacama POTENTIAL NuevaUnion SpA Mo-Au in conc. 1,700 / 4,800 ton Mo / kg Au
2023 DOMINGA Iron Coquimbo POTENTIAL Andes Iron Pellet feed 7,200,000 ton Fe
2026 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASES II & III Gran Min. - Cu Atacama POTENTIAL NuevaUnion SpA Au in conc. 2,850 kg Au
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
As seen in the table above, the largest contribution to molybdenum production would come from
the Spence Growth Option project and NuevaUnión Phase I project, which together would account
for a maximum contribution of 9,200 tons by 2028. The Molynor expansion project is not included
because it would only contribute capacity for refining molybdenum concentrate.
In the case of iron, the contribution of the projects included in the portfolio would reach 64,260
tons of Fe concentrate and 11 million tons of Fe mineral in pellet feed, giving a total of some 7.24
million tons of fine iron, assuming a grade of 65% at both operations.
Finally, in the case of gold, the maximum contribution of primary production from the three
initiatives included in the portfolio is estimated to reach 23,210 kg by 2028 while secondary
production from the NuevaUnión Phases I, II and III projects would reach 7,650 kg, giving a total
maximum contribution of 30,860 kg towards the end of the decade. Only the Nueva Esperanza
project indicates that it would produce silver, contributing around 100 tons contained in doré by
2028.
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