Israel and the Middle East News Update - S. Daniel Abraham Center ...
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Israel and the Middle East
News Update
Thursday, April 18
Headlines:
• Kushner: Deal of The Century will Not Be Released Before June
• EU: Abandoning 2-State Solution Will Deepen Israeli-Paestinian Conflict
• Israeli Envoy: No Annexation Before Unveiling of Trump's Plan
• Israeli President Tasks Netanyahu with Forming New Government
• Justice Ministry in Focus as PM Starts Coalition Negotiations
• Haredi Parties: Ready for New Election if PM Insists on Draft Law
• Despite Denials, Israeli Delegation Attended Bahrain Conference
• Roger Waters Urges Madonna to Cancel Eurovision Performance
Commentary:
• Al Monitor: “Netanyahu’s Anti-Indictment Plan Pushed Forward”
- By Ben Caspit, columnist at Al Monitor
• Ha’aretz: “The True Cost of Israeli Settlers' Annexation Dream”
- By David Rosenberg, Ha’aretz contributor
S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace
633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004
The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Aaron Zucker, Associate EditorNews Excerpts
April 18, 2019
Jerusalem Post
Kushner: Deal of The Century will Not Be Released Before June
Jared Kushner, US President Donald Trump’s senior adviser, told foreign diplomats on Wednesday
that the “deal of the century” will not be released before the end of Ramadan, in June, a source familiar
with the remarks told The Jerusalem Post. Kushner spoke in front of 100 foreign diplomats and
ambassadors at Blair House and asked them to keep an open mind regarding the plan, adding it would
require both sides to compromise. He said the plan will not jeopardize Israel’s security, according to
the report. He also said the plan has a “very detailed” political component, and will also have an
economic component. See also, “Kushner urges 'open mind' on upcoming Mideast plan: source” (Reuters)
Ha’aretz
EU: Abandoning 2-State Solution Will Deepen Israeli-Pal’ Conflict
Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs, said Tuesday that
abandoning the two-state solution for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would deepen the chaos
in Israel and the entire Middle East. During a discussion in the European Parliament on the possible
annexation by Israel of the West Bank and the United States’ recognition of Israeli sovereignty over
the Golan Heights, Mogherini said, “ The two-state solution is not only fading away. It is being
dismantled piece by piece.” She added that the EU and the Arab League both agreed on this position.
See also, EU REJECTS ISRAELI ANNEXATION TALK, WARNS OF MIDDLE EAST CHAOS” (JPost)
Ha’aretz
Israeli Envoy: No Annexation Before Unveiling of Trump's Plan
Israel's U.N. ambassador said Wednesday he believes his government will take no action on annexing
Jewish settlements in the West Bank until after the Trump administration releases its long-awaited
Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. Danny Danon told a group of reporters he thinks the United States will
present the plan between May and the summer. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged in
the final stretch of his campaign that he would annex the settlements if he was re-elected. He was
asked Wednesday to form a government following his election victory. "I don't think we will see any
major action by our government before the peace plan will be presented” he said. See also, “Danon: Israel
Keeping Open Mind Toward Peace Plan, as Should Palestinians” (Hamodia)
Reuters
Israeli President Tasks Netanyahu with Forming New Government
Israel’s president on Wednesday nominated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to head the next
government, after he won the backing of a majority of members of parliament following an April 9
election. In office for the past decade, Netanyahu won a fifth term despite an announcement by
Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit in February that he intends to charge the prime minister in three
corruption cases. Netanyahu has denied any wrongdoing. “At a time of great turmoil in our region, we
have managed not only to maintain the state’s security and stability, we have even managed to turn
Israel into a rising world power,” Netanyahu said at the nomination ceremony after President Reuven
Rivlin gave him the mandate to form a new government. See also, “Rivlin formally nominates Netanyahu as
prime minister” (Ynet News)
2Times of Israel
Justice Ministry in Focus as PM Starts Coalition Negotiations
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will on Thursday begin a series of negotiations as he seeks to put
together a coalition government for his fifth term in office, with an initial focus on the key Justice
Ministry. Initial speculation focused on the Justice Ministry, with Netanyahu’s legal woes expected to
be a major issue in the next term. The premier is facing indictment in three separate cases in the
coming months, pending a hearing. Speculation has swirled that Netanyahu may use his newfound
political strength to advance legislation that would grant him immunity from prosecution as long as he
remains prime minister. He has been reported to be considering conditioning entry to his new
government on potential support for a so-called French Law that would shelter a sitting prime minister
from prosecution. Netanyahu has publicly given mixed signals about whether he will seek such
legislation. See also, “Who will be Justice Minister: Bezalel Smotrich or Yariv Levin?” (Arutz 7)
Ha’aretz
Haredi Parties: Ready for New Election if PM Insists on Draft Law
As coalition talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanayhu’s Likud party begin in earnest following last
week’s Knesset election, officials with the United Torah Judaism party have said they would not join a
Netanyahu-led coalition if ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students don't continue to be exempt from military
conscription. If the dispute over legislation mandating the drafting of ultra-Orthodox men is not
resolved in the coalition talks, United Torah Judaism would have no problem heading for new
elections, the party said Tuesday. “We will insist that everyone who is studying Torah full time be able
to continue studying without interference. We are telling the campaign heads throughout the country
to remain on full alert,” officials from ultra-Orthodox party said.
Times of Israel
Despite Denials, Israeli Delegation Attended Bahrain Conference
An Israeli delegation attended a business conference in Bahrain this week, a senior official in
Jerusalem told Israeli television on Wednesday, contradicting statements by organizers and the
economy minister’s office that the visit had been scrapped amid security fears. A 30-strong Israeli
delegation, including Economy Minister Eli Cohen, was scheduled to attend the Global
Entrepreneurship Congress that opened in Manama on Monday. At least three Israelis, including the
Israel Innovation Authority’s deputy chief, Anya Eldan, were scheduled to speak at the conference. But
organizers said the Israelis backed out “due to security concerns.” See also, “Israeli delegation did
visit Bahrain, despite opposition - new report” (JPost)
Ynet News
Roger Waters Urges Madonna to Cancel Eurovision Performance
Roger Waters, one of the most vocal advocates for cultural boycott of Israel, pens an open letter to
Madonna, urging her to cancel her performance at this year’s Eurovision Song Contest in Tel Aviv over
Israel’s treatment of Palestinians, and dismisses claims of harboring anti-Semitic views. Madonna was
earlier confirmed to perform at the Grand Final on May 18, after months long negotiations between the
singer’s representatives and the contest organizers. In a letter - published Wednesday in the Guardian
newspaper - the former Pink Floyd frontman writes that artists who perform in Israel normalize “the
occupation, the apartheid, the ethnic cleansing, the incarceration of children, the slaughter of unarmed
protesters … all that bad stuff.” See also,”If you believe in human rights, Madonna, don’t play Tel Aviv” (Guardian)
3Al Monitor– April 17, 2019
Netanyahu’s Anti-Indictment Plan Pushed Forward
By Ben Caspit, columnist at Al Monitor
• Up until election day on April 9, it was almost inconceivable to think that Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu would manage to evade the heavy hand of the law by political means. The
following day, such a scenario appeared quite feasible. The tables had turned. The April 9
elections were a historic watershed. From now on, Israel’s law enforcement authorities will try
to dodge Netanyahu’s machinations, not the other way around.
• This summer, Netanyahu will break the record for the longest time in office set by the founder
of the State of Israel and its first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion. In recent years, Netanyahu
has also engaged in a historic Erdogan-style revolution designed to crush the media, weaken
the courts and subject them to the executive and legislative branches, and trample public
regulators and other guardians of Israeli democracy. He seems indomitable, and no one will
even try to stop him.
• On April 10, the day after the elections, the Justice Ministry in Jerusalem prepared boxes full
of folders containing mountains of investigative material for their handover to Netanyahu’s
legal team, which is defending him against cases of suspected corruption. As promised by
Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit and in keeping with the prime minister’s demand as
conveyed by his lawyers, the handover was delayed until after the elections to prevent material
harmful to Netanyahu’s prospects from leaking out. As of this writing, however, the lawyers
have not picked them up to prepare for the hearing that Netanyahu is supposed to undergo
before the attorney general, who will indict Netanyahu pending that hearing. At the request of
Netanyahu’s attorneys, the hearing originally scheduled for July was postponed until
September. Netanyahu, however, is acting as if there is no hearing in the offing, and the piles
of evidence compiled by the police and state prosecutors are taking on a yellowing tinge. Close
associates insist there will not be a hearing, and even if one is held, it will not result in a trial.
For the first time since police began investigating suspicions against Netanyahu more than
two years ago, the prime minister’s associates may be right.
• At a festive April 16 event to toast his Likud party’s election success and the upcoming
Passover holiday, Netanyahu declared, “I am not deterred by the media.” He will try to return
to the scene of the crime, as it were, and again assume the position of Communications
minister in the new government he is forming. Netanyahu is suspected of abusing this same
position that he insisted on holding after the 2015 elections when, obsessed by his media
image, he allegedly traded regulatory and other favors for favorable coverage in what are
known as cases 2000 and 4000. Facing possible charges of bribery, Netanyahu has
nonetheless lost all fear and seems to be going for broke.
• His blueprint to evade indictment is simple. First, since the elections, he and his associates
keep hammering home the message that “the people have spoken,” meaning that the attorney
general and other law enforcement authorities must bow their heads to the nation’s will. The
separation of powers that underpins modern democracy and the total severing of the political
from the criminal are being erased into oblivion.
4• As for the hearing and pending indictments, Netanyahu knows that even at the pinnacle of his
power, pushing through legislation protecting an incumbent prime minister from prosecution
— known in Israel as the French law — is not feasible. The French law protects the incumbent
head of state from being charged. Associates of Netanyahu have tried in the past to push
forward law proposals in that vein.
• Another suggestion that Netanyahu’s supporters have broached would enable him to avoid
prosecution by virtue of parliamentary immunity, but such immunity is not automatic.
Netanyahu would have to ask the Knesset to implement this immunity in this specific case.
Usually, parliamentary immunity is requested in cases involving public/political actions taken
by Knesset members in regards to their duties. So this possibility is not considered by
Netanyahu as bulletproof protection against an indictment. Also, to receive it, Netanyahu would
depend on his situation in the Knesset. In other words, it would depend on fluid political
circumstances.
• Right now, he appears to prefer a simpler solution. Since Israeli law does not require a prime
minister to step down if indicted, Netanyahu plans to continue in his post until the legal
proceedings against him end — if indictments are actually served following his hearing before
the attorney general. A trial, followed by an appeal and the potential for a special Supreme
Court appeal, could drag the proceedings out for years. Since Netanyahu has been successful
in putting off the hearing until the fall, he may try for another extension until the end of the
year, and who knows when a trial might even begin. At some point, Netanyahu may decide he
has had enough and try for a speedy plea deal. Either way, he plans to adopt the same tactics
to overcoming Israel’s law enforcement and judicial authorities that he used to exhaust former
US President Barack Obama with successive excuses to delay US-mediated peace talks with
the Palestinians, tire out the Europeans and outmaneuver the entire Arab world. He is unrivaled
in this field.
• Netanyahu’s appointment of Israel’s next justice minister will be the real test of his intentions.
If, as speculated, he names Knesset member and former Tourism Minister Yariv Levin, the
Supreme Court’s most aggressive and outspoken critic, Netanyahu will be signaling a
declaration of war on the judicial branch. State prosecutor Shai Nitzan, one of the most
prominent advocates of indicting Netanyahu on charges of bribery and other counts, ends his
term at the end of the year. Levin could influence the choice of his successor, which could
have a direct impact on the decisions made after the attorney general's hearing.
• Such plans were not supposed to be relevant after the elections, but the results defied most
predictions and handed Netanyahu a dream coalition. The ultra-Orthodox Shas Party garnered
eight Knesset seats, providing Netanyahu with a full legal safety net against criminal
prosecution — after all, Shas leader Aryeh Deri is also suspected of criminal wrongdoing. The
ultra-Orthodox Yahadut HaTorah — whose leader, Knesset member Yaakov Litzman, is also
suspected of criminal wrongdoing — also improved its election showing with eight Knesset
seats, whereas Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, the only Netanyahu ally who openly declared
that he would not serve under an indicted premier, plunged from 10 seats in the previous
elections to four seats for his Kulanu Party. Kahlon, whose finger in the dam defended the
Supreme Court and law enforcement from an onslaught of restrictive legislation by the
previous coalition government, has surrendered. Having paid a heavy electoral price for his
stands, he is now striving for a union with the Likud, announcing that the guardians of these
5institutions should no longer count on him. He has finished his role as defender of the rule of
law. Given this state of affairs, the 65 hands that will protect Netanyahu as a prime minister
under indictment appear more stable than ever — at least in terms of Israel’s political-security
chaos, of course.
• The guardians of Israeli law enforcement have one card left to play, and that is the Supreme
Court. If Netanyahu is indicted, opponents are likely to petition the Supreme Court, demanding
that he be forced to resign. The court has already set such a precedent for government
ministers under criminal indictment. To deactivate this potential landmine, Netanyahu is
seeking to push through legislation that would allow the Knesset to override Supreme Court
rulings that strike down laws. This Override Clause could also allow the Knesset to overrule
decisions related to the interpretation of laws.
• Former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, expected to join the new Netanyahu government,
has promised to back the Override Clause only once the Knesset adopts legislation he is
pushing for: a compulsory military draft of ultra-Orthodox Jews — a bill to which Netanyahu’s
ultra-Orthodox partners object. The ultra-Orthodox champion the adoption of the Override
Clause in order to reject the Supreme Court's ruling last year, forcing the government to
legislate a draft law equating the duties of the ultra-Orthodox to those of other Israelis — in
other words, canceling draft exemptions. This all creates a typical Israeli political tangle that
could make it hard for Netanyahu to carry out his escape-from-prosecution plan. On the other
hand, he has already overcome such complex situations in the past. Benjamin Netanyahu
seems to be here to stay, for now.
SUMMARY: Right now, Netanyahu appears to prefer a simpler solution. Since Israeli law
does not require a prime minister to step down if indicted, Netanyahu plans to continue in
his post until the legal proceedings against him end — if indictments are actually served
following his hearing before the attorney general. A trial, followed by an appeal and the
potential for a special Supreme Court appeal, could drag the proceedings out for years.
Since Netanyahu has been successful in putting off the hearing until the fall, he may try for
another extension until the end of the year, and who knows when a trial might even begin.
At some point, Netanyahu may decide he has had enough and try for a speedy plea deal.
Either way, he plans to adopt the same tactics to overcoming Israel’s law enforcement and
judicial authorities that he used to exhaust former US President Barack Obama with
successive excuses to delay US-mediated peace talks with the Palestinians, tire out the
Europeans and outmaneuver the entire Arab world. He is unrivaled in this field.
6Ha’aretz– April 18, 2019
The True Cost of Israeli Settlers' Annexation Dream
By David Rosenberg, Ha’aretz contributor
• The dam has finally broken, or has it? Netanyahu, who until the election had refused to explicitly
back the idea of annexing all or part of the West Bank, finally said a few days before the election
that he favored some sort of sovereignty over the Green Line. Bibi made his move only after
being pushed to the wall by Channel 12’s Rina Matzliach about why he had done nothing about
annexing settlement blocks like Maale Adumim and Gush Etzion. “Who says we aren't? We’re
on the way, we’re in discussions on this and other things …” and, after being repeatedly
pressed, he finally states: “I am going to extend sovereignty.”
• As a historic moment, it failed the drama test, especially in comparison to his Bar-Ilan address
a decade earlier in support of a two-state solution: “We do not want to rule over them [the
Palestinians]. We do not want to run their lives. We do not want to force our flag and our culture
on them. In my vision of peace, there are two free peoples living side by side in this small land.”
That was visionary and thoughtful. It was expressed eloquently in a forum appropriate for a
major policy statement.
• Netanyahu’s support for “annexation,” as his mealy-mouthed remarks have come to be
interpreted, seems at most a panicked pre-election maneuver and maybe even a complete cock-
up. Either way, Bibi is the master of our universe here in Israel, and whatever his intentions, he
has brought the annexation idea out of the realm of extremist fantasy and into the mainstream
political discourse.
• Bibi had been a status quo man content with the limbo of perpetual occupation. And why not?
The fact is for a rightist like himself, who doesn’t share the messianic dreams, the situation isn’t
so bad. The settlers have all the rights and privileges of Israelis – and even a few more – while
the financial and other burdens of ruling over 2.5 million West Bank Palestinians was the
problem of the Palestinian Authority.
• Much has already been written about the supposed political costs of applying Israeli sovereignty
in all or part of the West Bank. But the fact is, the political costs may be low, assuming Israel
does it with adequate finesse. This isn’t the 1980s, 1990s or early 2000s. Trump is in the White
House, Europe is preoccupied by domestic upheavals like Brexit and rising powers like China
prefer to steer clear of human rights issues when there’s good business to be done. BDS is a
flop and Israel is now more firmly connected to the world business community than ever.
• There are, of course, the ethical and social issues of what kind of country Israel would be when
the pretense of a temporary occupation is jettisoned and the state that encompasses all the land
between the Jordan and the sea is a bifurcated society of privileged Jews and second-class
Palestinians. In a testament to how shallow their fealty to democracy is, most of the Israeli right
is distressingly unbothered by this. But perhaps they could appreciate the cost annexation
would impose in terms of security and ultimately in money.
• The facts are spelled out in a report published last September Ramifications of West Bank
Annexation: Security and Beyond by a group of ex-army officers and the Israel Policy Forum.
7• What the report correctly posits is that a “soft” annexation of a few settlements or all of Area C
(the part of the West Bank under Israeli control) would almost certainly morph into a “hard”
annexation of complete Israeli sovereignty or a patchwork of sovereignty and military
government.
• The reason is that a soft annexation that arouses little opposition from the international
community would only whet the appetite of the Israeli right for more. But at some point it would
lead to the collapse of the PA and/or the start widespread violence. Of course, neither might
happen, but anyone who dreams of annexation would be foolish to assume they won’t.
• The collapse of the PA wouldn't bother the annexationists because it would eliminate the last
shred of Palestinian government. But they don’t take into account the practical effect of that
government's demise: –no more security cooperation with the Israeli army, and, Israel would
have to assume the burden of supplying government services like health, education and
infrastructure.
• In the case of full annexation, the Ramifications report estimates that the cost of providing
security and service could add up to as much $14.5 billion annually, or a hefty 12.8% increase
in government spending. Palestine is poor. Palestinian taxpayers could never cover the cost of
their own schools and healthcare.
• Today, a lot of the gap is covered by international aid, which would evaporate under Israeli rule.
Moreover, as citizens or permanent residents, West Bank Palestinians would be entitled to the
same levels of services as other Israelis, so the costs would be higher than what the PA now
spends.
• And, that $14.5 billion figure assumes the West Bank remains quiet. An upsurge of violence
would cost billions more and would likely lead to a drop in foreign investment and an economic
downturn in Israel. That’s what happened in the Second Intifada, and there’s no reason to
assume history won’t repeat itself.
• Netanyahu is probably aware of all the risks, which is why he has been content to leaves things
as they are. But like Pandora, who opened the box even though she knew it would spell trouble
and then quickly tried to close it, he has created a situation he may not be able to control.
SUMMARY: In the case of full annexation, the Ramifications report estimates that the cost
of providing security and service could add up to as much $14.5 billion annually, or a hefty
12.8% increase in government spending. Palestine is poor. Palestinian taxpayers could
never cover the cost of their own schools and healthcare. Today, a lot of the gap is covered
by international aid, which would evaporate under Israeli rule. Moreover, as citizens or
permanent residents, West Bank Palestinians would be entitled to the same levels of
services as other Israelis, so the costs would be higher than what the PA now spends. And,
that $14.5 billion figure assumes the West Bank remains quiet. An upsurge of violence
would cost billions more and would likely lead to a drop in foreign investment and an
economic downturn in Israel. That’s what happened in the Second Intifada, and there’s no
reason to assume history won’t repeat itself.
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