JANUARY 2023 PREAMBLE - www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk - Tree of the month from 24th December to 20th January is the silver birch
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www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk
JANUARY 2023
PREAMBLE
Tree of the month from 24th December to 20th January is the silver birchWelcome to the January 2023 website entry.
I commence with wishing all the readership a very Happy, Healthy New Year
with everything you each aspire to. I also thank you all for the continued
support, interest, and enquiries that this website generates, I hope that each
month I can generate enough interest to keep all involved & informed.
Now the collated expert notes on January:
JANUARY 2023 – is on average the coldest month of the year in Britain. The
coldest day is traditionally associated with 13th January – St Hilary, and in fact
the three days 12-14th January do tend to bring cold temperatures to London,
the Home Counties and SE England. Early January is a continuation of the
December stormy weather after a break of a few days after the New Year,
from 5-17th, in some years taking all this period. A cold spell often develops in
mid-January, with a rapid decrease in storms. This is associated with a
considerable rise in barometric pressure over central Europe, and, to a lesser
extent over northern Europe. It is quite common over much of Britain and
results in remarkable frost during some seasons. Towards the end of
January barometric pressure generally begins to fall again, normally quite
considerably too over most of Europe, leading in many years to quite stormy
periods. On the average such times last about nine days from 24th January to
the 1st February – even if there are one or two fine days in the middle. Typical
weather is dull, mild, and wet, but not particularly cold. Many will recall the
North Sea floods of 1953 that brought flooding, deaths, and destruction to
much of the North Sea coastline, include the east of England, during this late
January period. Fortunately, there is no evidence of such an occurrence for
this year.
As can be seen from the spreadsheet, there is a possibility, for some, but not
all regions to endure a snowfall mid- January, and as such, care must be
paramount for all.I see that every household in Wales is being offered a free tree as part of efforts to tackle climate change, under the ‘’My tree our forest’ initiative by the Welsh government and the Woodland Trust in Wales. 5000 trees were given away in March. A further 250000 trees are now available on a first come first served basis. However, the main point of this as far as I am concerned (a personal viewpoint) is that it is not the Sitka spruce and other short term ‘money trees,’ they are the native and broad leaf trees, these being hazel, rowan, silver birch, hawthorn, crab apple, sessile oak, dogwood, dog rose field maple and elder. The real beauty of these trees is that all provide living colour to the countryside with the added benefit of fruits and berries for the birds and some animals, thereby giving interest and colour throughout the winter. How refreshing to see some sensible actions being taken to truly restore such beautiful broad leaf and native trees to the environment. The heavy rains of November did cause some severe flooding to some areas (including here NW Kent), but a lot was caused by the drainage systems being clogged by seasonal leaf fall, and no remedial actions by the relevant authorities. Sadly, too the two worst water utilities, Southern and Southwestern water, dumped even more raw sewerage into the coastal environment, once again spreading disease, bacterial infection, danger to local fishing and other such activities; and they have until 2050 to remedy such actions. With the current economic situation making foreign holidays a thing of the past, those have a ‘staycation,’ here in the UK will have to contend with polluted beaches and other such nasties. It is really time to make the directors of such utilities responsible for such dereliction, maybe then some real improvement will be made. Now an update on the above entry dated 26/11/2022. The Environment Agency (EA) has been accused by several affected groups of actively
weakening the environment by having their water inspectors, not visiting sites, but by relying on water companies to self-police themselves. Previously officials of the EA would attend and investigate category one or two incidents - the most serious cases of water pollution – in person – following complaints. In August the regulator decided that new guidance classifying serious incidents was made; the usual presumption that an incident had occurred can be overturned if ‘appropriate information to demonstrate no impact has been provided by the water company.’ One UN campaigner said the shift was like ‘asking an arsonist to assess fire damage,’ and a hammer blow’ to clean water efforts. ‘It was akin to letting water companies mark their own homework and frankly unbelievable,’ said Amy Slack, head of campaigns of ‘Surfers against Sewerage.’ So, the government is actively weakening this environmental protection of our rivers, water spaces and coastline, and, as such, we are returning the ’bad old days,’ when the |UK was the ‘Dirty man of Europe,’ with pollution running rampant again. Those that swim, fish, sail and use our water systems for recreation, work and other activities are in further danger of serious illnesses – another burden on our stretched NHS, and not good to know that you are endangering yourself and your kith & kin by venturing into such unsafe waters. And now more news about the water utilities in the UK; it transpires that 70% are foreign owned, but also shield their identities and taxes (if any) in shell companies in tax havens – is it therefore any wonder that the UK is the dirty man of Europe. But, on 28th November researchers have been awarded funding by the Natural Environment Research Council and the Dept of Food & Rural Affairs to improve the quality of UK rivers, where just 14% in England, 46% in Wales, 50% in Scotland and 31% in Northern Ireland meet the good ecological threshold. We will see – rhetoric is cheap. Full details can be found at www.UKRI/Home/news/new research will improve the quality of UK rivers. Nature works, for those that can see it and understand this marvel, some 90 or so days ahead; therefore, what happens now (6th December) is a pretty good indicator of the weather some 90+ days hence. Go back a few weeks to St
Luke’s little summer (18-29th October and St Martin’s little summer (11-14 November), when we had for the time of the year dry warm sunny glorious weather; as such this encouraged in so many garden flowers to bloom, roses to bloom, in the wild an outburst of milfoil, hawksbeards, ragwort and other seed plants. So, when these die back they leave seeds and rose hips; count 90 days on and we get to the end of February when many of the current seeds, berries and fruits will be ending and nature provides new food for the birds – and, as nature does, this food will provide food for the promised snows in March, but also nature combines as always with the moon phases and looks after its own. But the predicted snow – for some but not all- arrived on queue on the 8th December, once again the methodology ahead of the curve The migrant winter birds that here (NW Kent) were all late this year, but the last to arrive were the fieldfares and redwings that came on the 3rd. The significance of this (again magical nature) is that when these birds arrive here it is a sign that around four days hence the first severe ground frost will arrive (circa 7th Dec), once again nature and the moon phases in perfect unison for the 8th the moon phase is for “snow – if cold enough – else rain”. And, sure enough the weather forecasts all give such warnings – but this was all predicted months ago on this website. I mention such events for the simple reason that if one is able to read the nature signs, combine this with the moon phases and usage of some of the old tried tested and proven 1000-year-old sayings that are the mainstay of the methodology here, then, despite the cynicism displayed and voiced by so many, the methodology is indeed very good. It is all about understanding the UK weather, together with knowledge and skills developed over many years. 2022 was a brilliant year for the methodology, it started with a short winter, and early spring, the brilliant July heat, the heat in August then the autumn and now the winter, all near perfect predictions. There is no guesswork involved, no computer modelling, just keeping to the simple rules and writing what is provable. Nature is very clever; we now have robins from nearby Europe over-wintering here to partake of the abundance or rowan berries. The jays too arrive from nearby Europe to enjoy the masses of acorns here. The arctic starlings (coloured brown too) and the brambling, both winter migrants from the north
enjoy the winters here. A sign of a not so severe winter this year too is that the squirrels have not built any secondary drays to store extra food. It is all about getting out there, looking and seeing, it is all a free show. Some have asked why no recent appearances on ITV This Morning Show, the reason is simple, but in some ways sad too. I am invited to give a short chat that I script for that show for just under four minutes. Sadly, the presenters interject this short script with at times unnecessary or superfluous comment, which reduces the script time, and, as such, my allotted time is ‘shut-down’ without the full content being explained. This has happened now for the last few appearances, and as such several mails arrive here asking why I tolerate such interjections, some even say that such talks are ridiculed by the presenters (who of course know more about my subject than I do). So, after much thought, I believe the male presenter shows a lack of respect for such skills as I have. He ‘disses’ me. I have therefore made it crystal clear to the production team that such treatment is no longer tolerable and as such I refuse to work with the male presenter. Not an easy choice, but a considered action, time to make a stand. Therefore, very sad for those that enjoyed, albeit in short spells, the information I impart, one person’s insouciance spoilt it for everyone else. I am not as such a proud person, but I have my pride and self-esteem plus some skills others do not possess, I expect some respect in return. It is a clear, laudable say some, to try to be zero carbon free, by 2050, but there are dangers in this agenda; the recent very cold windless, sunless days have revealed one such flaw. Without wind the turbines cannot generate power, without sun the solar panels do not generate power. The alternative is to restart usage of coal fired power stations to keep the lights on. Surely there must be a ‘stand-by’ situation to compensate for such eventualities. We live on an island of coal after all.
As I often remark, the UK is an island surrounded by water and at times experiences periods of unpredictable extreme weather, what I term as ‘quirky’ weather. In July 2022 we had such an instance with two days of temperatures of 40C – previously unheard-of heat. In October we experienced around the 18th to the 29th another spell of true Indian summer warmth, this however was predictable as such, but the warmth was exceptional for the time of year. Mid-December is now (13th) suffering an exceptionally cold spell for the greater part across the whole of the UK, even as far south and west as Cornwall. This again is ‘quirky,’ weather, true the trusted moon phase was “snow, if cold enough, else rain,” therefore the warnings were there writ loud and clear, but not the intense prolonged cold with Braemar in Scotland having -16C – the coldest for ten years. The snowfall was patchy in places, here in Kent, extensively reported as impassable in places with road rail and aircraft disruption, yet parts had no snow at all, just rain. Here (home) it was just 2cms deep, yet on top of the North Downs to the North at Sevenoaks it had 18cms of snow. However deep it was ‘quirky’ – unexpected. The last time such cold and snow I have recorded here for such a period was in 2010 – therefore a relatively rare event. So, whilst, as many have told me, whilst on ITV show in September, I said no real snow until March for most of us, the current weather has thwarted that notion. I am human, therefore imperfect; the moon warning was there writ loud and clear, maybe a look at the winter website for the January ‘snow moons (2),’ might be prescient after all. Therefore stay warm, dry safe and above all take extreme care. @David King Edenbridge December 2022
www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk
JANUARY 2023
NEW MOON 22nd @ 2053hrs = Snow if cold enough else rain
1st QUARTER MOON = 15th @ 0210hrs = Snow if cold enough else rain
FULL MOON 6th @ 2307 = Fair & Frosty (micro full moon)
LAST QUARTER MOON 28th @ 1518hrs = Fair & mild
DoP = 25th St Paul.
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES 22nd to the 26th
Apogee 8th @ 0920hrs: Perigee 22nd @ 2120hrs
Quadrantid Meteor shower 3rd/4th
FULL MOON IS KNOWN AS WOLF or OLDMOON/MOON AFTER YULE
MET OFFICENOTES: 5th to 17th Stormy; 18th to 24th quiet; 25th to 31st stormy
BUCHAN NOTES = NONE
MONTHLY NOTES AND COMMENTS
1st Calends If Janiver Calends be summerly gay, wintery weather will
continue to the Calends of May.
Perigee @2301hrs
3rd It will be the same weather for 9 weeks as it is the ninth day
after Christmas.
3/4th Quadrantid meteor shower
5th Twelfth night.
6th Epiphany The days are lengthened a cocks stride.
8th Weather before noon foretells June, weather after noon that of
May.
9th Weather before noon foretells August, weather after noon that of
July.
Plough Monday
10th Weather before noon foretells October, weather after noon that
of September.11th Weather before noon foretells that of December, weather
afternoon that of November.
12th If the sun shines today it foretells much wind.
13th St Hilary Foretells the weather for the whole year - often considered the
coldest and/or the wettest day of the year (reliable). Homage
day to the apple tree .
15th St Paul the Hermit If rain or snow this day there will be a blessing on the
year.
17th St Sulphicius Frost augers well for the spring.
19th - 31st See rhyme below.
21st Apogee 13.12hrs
22nd St Vincent If the sky is clear, more water than wine will crown the year. If
the sun shines today (it foreshadows much wind), prosperous
weather all year.
25th St Paul aka as St Annanias. It is said to predict the weather for
the whole year ahead (it is good for 6 months - but tails off after
that - Ed) DAY OF PREDICTION. Also known as Egyptian
Day. Burns Night. Arguably the most important day of the
year.
31st Hazel Tree in flower.
MET OFFICE NOTES: 5th to 17th Stormy. 18th to 24th Quiet. 25th to 31st
Stormy again.
BUCHAN NOTES: NONE.
Tree of the month is the Birch up to the 16th, thereafter the Rowan.
General Notes and Comments
As days lengthen so cold strengthens. The blackest month of the year.
In winter, after the prevalence of easterly winds, if the barometer begins to fall and
the thermometer to rise, a gale which starts to blow from the SE will veer to
the SW, whilst the barometer falls constantly.As soon as the wind passes the SW point the barometer begins to rise, a heavy
shower of rain falls, and a strong W/NW or NE wind may follow, after which,
the sky clears and the weather becomes colder.
[This is an exact UK weather pattern and true]
A January spring is worth nothing.
If no snow before the end of January there will be more in March & April.
1st - If this be a Sunday, winter will be cold and moist, spring windy, the summer hot,
and, at harvest time wind and rain with abundance of corn and other grain.
If this be a Monday, severe and confused winter, good spring and windy summer.
If this be a Tuesday, dreary and severe winter. windy spring, rainy summer.
If this a Wednesday, hard winter, bad spring, good summer.
If this be a Thursday, good winter, windy spring, good summer.
If this be a Friday, variable winter, good spring and summer.
If this be a Saturday, snowy winter, blowing spring, wet summer.
Summerish January gives winterish spring.
January commits the fault and May bears the blame.
If January the sun appear, March and April will pay full dear.
When Oak trees bend with snow in January, good crops may be expected.
March in January, January in March.
If grass do grow in Janiveer,’twill grow the worse for all the year.
If grain grows in January, a year of great need.
If birds begin to whistle, frosts to come.
Dry January plenty of wine. Wet January no wine.
Fog in January brings a wet spring.
Hoar frost and no snow is hurtful to fields, trees and grain.
Wet January, wet spring.
If January is wet the barrels stay empty (wine).
January freeze, the pot on the fire.
Gale force winds are quite common in January.
Remember on St Vincent’s Day (22nd), if the sun his beams display,
‘Tis a token bright and clear, of prosperous weather throughout the year,
More wine than water, much rye and wine.St Vincent’s is normally a good weather day.
If the birds start singing on St Vincent’s day ‘twill be an early spring.
St Paul’s day is also St Annanias’s day (25th).
If the sunshine on St Paul’s Day it betokens a good year; if snow or rain an
indifferent year. (a bad crop of grain) If cloudy & misty a great dearth and
beasts and birds will die, if Thunder great winds are predicted and unrest will
vex us all and cold will blow the great winds of January.
Clouds on St Annanias Day portend floods.
St Paul’s Day - It is necessary to observe and note down the phases of the day, hour
by hour, or, even half an hourly, throughout the day from 6am to 6pm. This
is due to the belief that the hours of the day will reflect the weather, month by
month throughout the year.
Generally these signs are dependable up to the end of July. However there is much
truth in the above and 90% accuracy is quite normal - with 100% one year.
Snow usually falls in the third week of January. If it doesn’t fall then, then it won’t fall
at all.
For farmers it is wise to plan your hay crop now. If the grass is already starting to
grow, then do not look for two hay crops this year for the worse it will be later
on, and vice-versa.
The first three days of January rule the coming first three months.
Warm January, cold May.
There will certainly be at least one very cold snap, very likely with snow too. It has
been known to arrive as early as Boxing Day (26th December) and as late as
the 30th January. It will come and will probably be the worst cold snap of the
year. There is much truth in the saying that the hardest winters are those
that start around twelfth night (6th), following a dry December. On snow - it is
generally unknown, that if snow lies for three days it will require another fall to
take it away.
If late October and early November be warm and rainy, then January and February
shall be frosty and cold. [check readings from previous year]
When the months of July, August and September are exceptionally hot, January will
be the coldest month. [check previous readings]
Windy October - dry January. [check previous readings]
A dry and frosty Janiveer is like to make a plenteous year - a very dependable
saying.
19th-31st. These last twelve days of the month rule the weather for the whole year.
Tree of the month is Birch up-to 15th. Thereafter the Rowan.THE MOON IS KNOWN AS THE WOLF MOON OR OLD MOON OR MOON AFTER
YULE
MONTHLY AVERAGES FOR EDENBRIDGE (USING 1991-2020 FIGURES)
All the figures below have now been updated to comply with the Above 30 year
period
Mean Max: 8.7C Mean Min: .9C Mean Avg: 4.8C
Rainfall: 90.6mm Sunshine: 66.2hrs (day = 2.13hrs)
Whilst I appreciate the above are local figures, it will be an indication of what the
averages are, and, of course there will be local variations. Such variations
can be found by trawling the various weather websites, or by using the superb
data found in the Climatologists Observers Link website.
The following figures are for the average temperature at 12 noon and again at 4pm,
taken at the beginning and again at the end of the month.
1st 6.38C 6.42C
st
31 5.65C 5.3C
@David King Edenbridge September 2022DATE day moon weather DoP Saint/holy other day Perigee Equinox Met Office Buchan Super- Highest
January day Apogee Eclipse moon tides
01/01/2023 su
02/01/2023 m
03/01/2023 t quadrantids
04/01/2023 w perihelion ******* Twelfth night meteors
05/01/2023 th 1617hrs Ephiphany stormy
06/01/2023 f FULL fair/frosty Full Wolf moon 5th micro full
07/01/2023 sa 2307hrs to moon
08/01/2023 su apogee the
09/01/2023 m Plough Monday 0920hrs 17th
10/01/2023 tu "
11/01/2023 w "
12/01/2023 th "
13/01/2023 f St Hilary "
14/01/2023 sa St Paul the Hermit "
15/01/2023 su Last Q snow& stormy ""
16/01/2023 m 0210hrs if cold enough St Sulphicius END
17/01/2023 t else rain quiet
18/01/2023 w 18th
19/01/2023 th to
20/01/2023 f the
21/01/2023 sa St Vincent 24th
22/01/2023 su New snow perigee " YES highest tides
23/01/2023 m 2053hrs if cold enough 2120hrs " 22nd
24/01/2023 tu else rain END to
25/01/2023 w YES St Paul's/Annanias stormy 26th
26/01/2023 th 25th "
27/01/2023 f to
28/01/2023 sa 1stQ fair & mild 31st
29/01/2023 su 1518hrs "
30/01/2023 m "
31/01/2023 tu hazel tree flowers END
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