Keystone XL: Opportunities for State Regulation - Paul Blackburn, J.D. Blackcreek Environmental Consul3ng - Pipeline Safety Trust

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Keystone XL: Opportunities for State Regulation - Paul Blackburn, J.D. Blackcreek Environmental Consul3ng - Pipeline Safety Trust
Keystone XL:
     Opportunities for
     State Regulation

        Paul	
  Blackburn,	
  J.D.	
  
Blackcreek	
  Environmental	
  Consul3ng	
  
              612-­‐599-­‐5568	
  
      paul@paulblackburn.net	
  

                                               1
Keystone
 Pipeline
“System”
Alberta to Texas

                   2
Federal	
  Regulatory	
  “Structure”	
  
•   Pipeline	
  and	
  Hazardous	
  Materials	
  Safety	
  AdministraDon	
  (PHMSA)	
  –	
  
    regulates	
  pipeline	
  safety	
  
•   President/Department	
  of	
  State	
  (DOS)	
  –	
  determines	
  whether	
  a	
  border	
  
    crossing	
  is	
  in	
  the	
  “na3onal	
  interest”	
  and	
  its	
  size	
  and	
  loca3on	
  
•   The	
  Federal	
  Energy	
  Regulatory	
  Commission	
  (FERC)	
  –	
  Approves	
  pipeline	
  
    tariffs	
  (cost	
  of	
  using	
  pipelines)	
  
•   Other	
  agencies	
  (EPA,	
  Army	
  Corps	
  of	
  Engineers,	
  WAPA,	
  etc.)	
  –	
  lesser	
  roles	
  

                                                                                                                3
The	
  Limits	
  of	
  PHMSA’s	
  Authority	
  
•   PHMSA	
  regulates	
  pipeline	
  safety	
  under	
  the	
  Pipeline	
  Safety	
  Act	
  (PSA),	
  but	
  
    this	
  does	
  not	
  mean	
  that	
  all	
  regula3on	
  related	
  to	
  “safety”	
  is	
  preempted	
  by	
  
    the	
  PSA	
  
•   The	
  PSA	
  regulates	
  pipeline	
  owners	
  with	
  regard	
  to	
  pipeline	
  design,	
  
    materials,	
  fabrica3on,	
  and	
  inspec3on	
  of	
  the	
  pipe	
  itself	
  
•   Safety	
  areas	
  not	
  regulated	
  by	
  the	
  PSA	
  include:	
  
    •    Emergency	
  response	
  (regulated	
  by	
  federal	
  Clean	
  Water	
  Act)	
  
    •    Control	
  of	
  new	
  development	
  by	
  adjacent	
  landowners	
  
    •    Easement	
  terminaDon	
  condiDons	
  such	
  as	
  removal	
  of	
  abandoned	
  pipe	
  
    •    Liability	
  standards	
  to	
  recover	
  economic	
  damages	
  caused	
  by	
  a	
  spill	
  
    •    RouDng	
  to	
  increase	
  safety	
  (untested	
  in	
  federal	
  courts)	
  

                                                                                                                    4
PHMSA	
  as	
  a	
  Building	
  Inspector	
  
•      A	
  building	
  inspector	
  regulates	
  the	
  design,	
  construc3on,	
  modifica3on	
  and	
  use	
  
       of	
  buildings	
  to	
  ensure	
  they	
  are	
  built	
  and	
  maintained	
  in	
  a	
  safe	
  condi3on,	
  and	
  
       deals	
  with	
  things	
  such	
  as	
  structural	
  integrity,	
  proper	
  use	
  of	
  materials,	
  wiring,	
  
       plumbing,	
  railings,	
  stairwells,	
  loca3on	
  of	
  exits,	
  etc.	
  	
  	
  
•      Does	
  a	
  building	
  inspector	
  put	
  out	
  fires?	
  NO,	
  the	
  fire	
  department	
  does	
  
•      Does	
  a	
  building	
  inspector	
  determine	
  if	
  a	
  building	
  is	
  appropriately	
  located,	
  used	
  
       and	
  designed	
  to	
  integrate	
  into	
  neighboring	
  land	
  uses?	
  	
  NO,	
  the	
  zoning	
  
       department	
  does	
  
•      Does	
  a	
  building	
  inspector	
  regulate	
  easements	
  or	
  condemn	
  property?	
  	
  NO	
  
•      Does	
  a	
  building	
  inspector	
  determine	
  liability	
  if	
  there	
  is	
  an	
  accident?	
  	
  NO	
  
	
  
As	
  long	
  as	
  state	
  and	
  local	
  governments	
  don’t	
  try	
  to	
  become	
  “building	
  inspectors”	
  
of	
  pipelines,	
  their	
  ac3ons	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  preempted	
  by	
  the	
  PSA	
  

                                                                                                                                 5
Limits	
  of	
  President’s	
  Authority	
  
•   The	
  President’s	
  independent	
  authority	
  over	
  pipelines	
  comes	
  from	
  his	
  
    Cons3tu3onal	
  power	
  to	
  manage	
  “foreign	
  affairs,”	
  but	
  this	
  power	
  ends	
  at	
  
    the	
  borders	
  
•   Ma]ers	
  within	
  the	
  borders	
  of	
  the	
  U.S.	
  are	
  domes3c	
  affairs	
  regulated	
  by	
  
    federal	
  and	
  state	
  statutes	
  and	
  local	
  ordinances	
  
•   The	
  Na3onal	
  Environmental	
  Policy	
  Act	
  (NEPA)	
  requires	
  only	
  that	
  federal	
  
    agencies	
  study	
  environmental	
  impacts	
  and	
  provides	
  no	
  separate	
  legal	
  
    authority	
  to	
  require	
  any	
  changes	
  in	
  a	
  project	
  
     –    DOS	
  can’t	
  order	
  mi3ga3on	
  or	
  land	
  reclama3on	
  requirements	
  
     –    DOS	
  can’t	
  change	
  the	
  KXL	
  route,	
  except	
  the	
  loca3on	
  of	
  the	
  border	
  crossing	
  
     –    DOS	
  can’t	
  change	
  safety	
  requirements	
  
     –    DOS	
  can’t	
  protect	
  groundwater	
  

•   Don’t	
  you	
  think	
  it’s	
  odd	
  that	
  the	
  Department	
  of	
  State	
  is	
  managing	
  an	
  
                                                                                                                              6
    environmental	
  review	
  process	
  in	
  Nebraska?	
  
Limits	
  of	
  FERC	
  Authority	
  
•   FERC	
  determines	
  only	
  the	
  cost	
  to	
  ship	
  oil	
  on	
  a	
  pipeline	
  and	
  the	
  terms	
  of	
  its	
  
    commercial	
  use	
  
•   If	
  this	
  were	
  an	
  interstate	
  natural	
  gas	
  pipeline,	
  then	
  FERC	
  would	
  determine:	
  
    •     If	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  need	
  for	
  the	
  pipeline	
  
    •     The	
  pipeline’s	
  route,	
  size,	
  capacity,	
  and	
  interconnec3on	
  to	
  other	
  
          pipelines	
  
    •     Mi3ga3on	
  and	
  reclama3on	
  requirements	
  
    •     Compensa3on	
  for	
  economic	
  damages	
  caused	
  by	
  construc3on	
  
•   For	
  natural	
  gas	
  pipelines,	
  FERC	
  is	
  a	
  “one	
  stop	
  shop”	
  (with	
  a	
  some	
  
    excep3ons)	
  

                                                                                                                               7
Other	
  Federal	
  Agencies	
  
•   EPA	
  –	
  Water	
  pollu3on	
  permits	
  and	
  regula3on	
  of	
  hazardous	
  materials	
  used	
  
    during	
  construc3on;	
  oversees	
  oil	
  spill	
  cleanup	
  
•   Army	
  Corps	
  of	
  Engineers	
  –	
  dredge,	
  fill	
  and	
  obstruc3on	
  of	
  navigable	
  waters	
  
•   Bureau	
  of	
  Land	
  Management/Forest	
  Service	
  –	
  easements	
  on	
  certain	
  
    federal	
  public	
  lands	
  
•   Department	
  of	
  Interior	
  –	
  consulta3on	
  on	
  endangered	
  species	
  
•   Department	
  of	
  Agriculture	
  –	
  various	
  farmland	
  conserva3on	
  programs	
  
•   Western	
  Area	
  Power	
  AdministraDon	
  (WAPA)	
  –	
  Interstate	
  transmission	
  
    line	
  system	
  engineering	
  and	
  management	
  
•   Complete	
  list	
  in	
  FEIS	
  Sec3on	
  1	
  

                                                                                                               8
10 	
  Amendment	
  
                          th

•   "The	
  powers	
  not	
  delegated	
  to	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  by	
  the	
  
    Cons3tu3on,	
  nor	
  prohibited	
  by	
  it	
  to	
  the	
  states,	
  are	
  reserved	
  
    to	
  the	
  states	
  respec3vely,	
  or	
  to	
  the	
  people."	
  
•   This	
  means	
  that	
  the	
  states	
  have	
  legal	
  authority	
  over	
  anything	
  
    not	
  assigned	
  to	
  the	
  federal	
  government	
  or	
  specifically	
  
    withheld	
  from	
  the	
  states.	
  Whatever	
  powers	
  aren't	
  claimed	
  by	
  
    the	
  federal	
  or	
  state	
  governments	
  are	
  leiover	
  for	
  the	
  people.	
  

                                                                                                  9
OpportuniDes	
  for	
  State	
  and	
  	
  
                    Local	
  RegulaDon	
  
•   Generally,	
  state	
  and	
  local	
  governments	
  may	
  not	
  regulate	
  pipeline	
  safety	
  
•   State	
  and	
  local	
  governments	
  may	
  regulate:	
  
    •    Si3ng/Need	
  –	
  permits	
  to	
  protect	
  ci3zen	
  economic	
  and	
  environmental	
  interests	
  
         from	
  adverse	
  construc3on	
  and	
  opera3onal	
  impacts	
  
    •    Rou3ng	
  –	
  permits	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  loca3on	
  of	
  a	
  pipeline	
  
    •    Emergency	
  response	
  planning	
  and	
  equipment	
  requirements	
  
    •    Eminent	
  domain	
  process	
  and	
  terms	
  
    •    Easement	
  abandonment	
  
    •    Liability	
  for	
  spills	
  
    •    Regula3on	
  of	
  neighboring	
  land	
  uses	
  
    •    Taxa3on	
  

                                                                                                                10
SiDng/Need	
  
•   Some	
  states	
  (e.g.,	
  SD)	
  don’t	
  determine	
  route	
  but	
  do	
  impose	
  condi3ons	
  on	
  
    pipeline	
  construc3on	
  to	
  protect	
  the	
  economic,	
  environmental	
  and	
  
    aesthe3c	
  interests	
  of	
  ci3zens,	
  such	
  as	
  the	
  following	
  SD	
  examples:	
  
    •    Appointment	
  of	
  a	
  public	
  liaison	
  officer	
  to	
  handle	
  ci3zen	
  complaints	
  
    •    Adopts	
  FEIS	
  Construc3on	
  Mi3ga3on	
  and	
  Reclama3on	
  Plan	
  as	
  a	
  requirement	
  
    •    Detailed	
  requirements	
  for	
  soil	
  and	
  vegeta3on	
  reclama3on	
  aier	
  construc3on	
  
    •    Limita3on	
  on	
  construc3on	
  ac3vi3es	
  during	
  wet	
  soil	
  condi3ons	
  
    •    Limita3ons	
  on	
  cuts	
  through	
  shelterbelts	
  and	
  compensa3on	
  for	
  loss	
  of	
  trees	
  
    •    Condi3ons	
  for	
  construc3on	
  through	
  wetlands,	
  water	
  bodies	
  and	
  riparian	
  areas	
  
    •    Detailed	
  road	
  protec3on	
  condi3ons	
  
    •    Requirement	
  to	
  treat	
  the	
  High	
  Plains	
  Aquifer	
  as	
  a	
  hydrologically	
  sensi3ve	
  area	
  
    •    Limita3ons	
  on	
  noise	
  from	
  pump	
  sta3ons	
  
    •    Detailed	
  requirements	
  for	
  protec3on	
  of	
  paleontological	
  resources	
  
    •    Requirement	
  to	
  repair	
  or	
  replace	
  damaged	
  property	
  
    •    No	
  liability	
  for	
  spills	
  resul3ng	
  from	
  normal	
  farming	
  prac3ces	
  and	
  for	
  other	
  
         than	
  gross	
  negligence	
  or	
  willful	
  misconduct	
  of	
  a	
  landowner	
  or	
  its	
  agents	
  
                                                                                                                         11
RouDng	
  
•   Some	
  states	
  (e.g.,	
  ND,	
  MN	
  and	
  MT)	
  have	
  laws	
  that	
  authorize	
  a	
  state	
  to	
  
    determine	
  a	
  pipeline’s	
  route	
  
•   States	
  have	
  full	
  authority	
  to	
  alter	
  a	
  route	
  within	
  their	
  borders	
  for	
  
    economic,	
  aesthe3c	
  or	
  environmental	
  reasons	
  
•   For	
  example,	
  a	
  state	
  or	
  county	
  could	
  require	
  a	
  re-­‐route	
  a	
  pipeline	
  around	
  
    a	
  memorial	
  ba]lefield,	
  a	
  cemetery,	
  a	
  state	
  wilderness	
  area,	
  or	
  away	
  from	
  
    homes	
  or	
  businesses	
  if	
  construc3on	
  would	
  unduly	
  harm	
  business	
  income	
  
    or	
  property	
  values	
  
•   The	
  federal	
  courts	
  have	
  not	
  ruled	
  on	
  whether	
  or	
  not	
  a	
  state	
  may	
  consider	
  
    safety	
  when	
  determining	
  a	
  pipeline’s	
  route,	
  but	
  a	
  strong	
  legal	
  argument	
  
    can	
  be	
  made	
  that	
  Congress	
  prohibited	
  PHMSA	
  from	
  determining	
  a	
  
    pipeline’s	
  route	
  as	
  a	
  safety	
  measure	
  so	
  that	
  states	
  can	
  use	
  this	
  important	
  
    regulatory	
  tool	
  

                                                                                                                       12
Emergency	
  Response	
  Planning	
  
•   TransCanada’s	
  emergency	
  response	
  plan	
  is	
  required	
  by	
  the	
  Federal	
  Clean	
  Water	
  Act	
  
    (CWA),	
  42	
  U.S.C.	
  §	
  1321(j)(5)	
  –	
  not	
  the	
  PSA	
  

•   The	
  CWA	
  only	
  regulates	
  spills	
  into	
  “waters	
  of	
  the	
  US”	
  or	
  spills	
  that	
  might	
  flow	
  into	
  these	
  
    waters,	
  so	
  it	
  does	
  not	
  address	
  spills	
  only	
  onto	
  land	
  

•   §	
  132	
  1(o)	
  says:	
  

     “Nothing	
  in	
  this	
  sec3on	
  shall	
  be	
  construed	
  as	
  preemp3ng	
  any	
  State	
  or	
  poli3cal	
  
     subdivision	
  thereof	
  from	
  imposing	
  any	
  requirement	
  or	
  liability	
  with	
  respect	
  to	
  the	
  
     discharge	
  of	
  oil	
  or	
  hazardous	
  substance	
  into	
  any	
  waters	
  within	
  such	
  State,	
  or	
  with	
  
     respect	
  to	
  any	
  removal	
  ac3vi3es	
  related	
  to	
  such	
  discharge.”	
  

•   Therefore,	
  state	
  or	
  local	
  governments	
  may	
  impose	
  emergency	
  spill	
  response	
  standards	
  
    that	
  are	
  be]er	
  than	
  federal	
  standards	
  

•   The	
  State	
  of	
  Washington	
  has	
  a	
  par3cularly	
  strong	
  program:	
  	
  	
  

     Spills	
  Program	
  Home	
  -­‐	
  Washington	
  State	
  Department	
  of	
  Ecology	
  
                                                                                                                                             13
Eminent	
  Domain	
  
•   Interstate	
  oil	
  pipelines	
  must	
  acquire	
  easements	
  through	
  state	
  law	
  
•   What	
  a	
  state	
  gives	
  it	
  can	
  also	
  condi3on	
  
•   Generally,	
  state	
  easement	
  laws	
  allow	
  only	
  determina3on	
  of	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  
    land	
  taken,	
  but	
  states	
  may	
  also	
  allow	
  for	
  broader	
  economic	
  damages	
  and	
  
    judicial	
  determina3on	
  of	
  need	
  or	
  that	
  a	
  taking	
  has	
  a	
  public	
  benefit	
  
•   A	
  state	
  may	
  treat	
  takings	
  for	
  publicly	
  owned	
  projects	
  (roads,	
  sewers)	
  
    differently	
  from	
  takings	
  for	
  privately	
  owned	
  projects	
  (oil	
  pipelines)	
  
•   States	
  may	
  also	
  impose	
  sanc3ons	
  on	
  companies	
  that	
  misuse	
  right-­‐of-­‐way	
  
    process	
  (e.g.,	
  ND)	
  

                                                                                                              14
Easement	
  and	
  Pipeline	
  Abandonment	
  
•   Abandoned	
  pipelines	
  hurt	
  property	
  values	
  and	
  safety	
  because	
  they	
  may	
  interfere	
  
    with	
  new	
  construc3on,	
  impact	
  drainage,	
  cause	
  sinkholes,	
  and	
  present	
  a	
  hazard	
  to	
  
    vehicles,	
  farm	
  equipment	
  and	
  livestock	
  
•   Federal	
  pipeline	
  safety	
  law	
  regulates	
  only	
  opera3ng	
  pipelines;	
  PHMSA’s	
  opera3on	
  
    manual	
  requires	
  only	
  that	
  a	
  pipeline	
  withdrawn	
  from	
  service	
  be:	
  
    •     Disconnected	
  from	
  other	
  pipelines,	
  
    •     Purged	
  of	
  combus3bles,	
  and	
  	
  
    •     Sealed	
  
•   Once	
  these	
  steps	
  are	
  taken,	
  federal	
  law	
  no	
  longer	
  regulates	
  what	
  happens	
  to	
  an	
  
    abandoned	
  pipe	
  
•   A	
  number	
  of	
  state	
  and	
  local	
  governments	
  have	
  laws	
  that	
  regulate	
  pipeline	
  
    abandonment	
  or	
  easements,	
  including	
  MN	
  and	
  MI	
  and	
  Santa	
  Barbara	
  County,	
  CA	
  
•   Many	
  states	
  have	
  laws	
  related	
  to	
  abandonment	
  of	
  u3lity	
  and	
  railroad	
  easements	
  
•   Federal	
  agencies	
  regulate	
  pipeline	
  abandonment	
  on	
  federal	
  property	
  
•   Canada	
  has	
  established	
  a	
  na3onal	
  financial	
  mechanism	
  to	
  pay	
  for	
  remedia3on	
  of	
  
    abandoned	
  pipelines	
  

                                                                                                                            15
Liability	
  for	
  Damages	
  
•   The	
  CWA	
  states:	
  
    “Nothing	
  in	
  this	
  sec3on	
  shall	
  affect	
  or	
  modify	
  in	
  any	
  way	
  the	
  obliga3ons	
  of	
  .	
  .	
  .	
  any	
  
    owner	
  or	
  operator	
  of	
  any	
  onshore	
  facility	
  .	
  .	
  .	
  to	
  any	
  person	
  or	
  agency	
  under	
  any	
  
    provision	
  of	
  law	
  for	
  damages	
  to	
  any	
  publicly	
  owned	
  or	
  privately	
  owned	
  property	
  
    resul3ng	
  from	
  a	
  discharge	
  of	
  any	
  oil	
  or	
  hazardous	
  substance	
  or	
  from	
  the	
  removal	
  of	
  
    any	
  such	
  oil	
  or	
  hazardous	
  substance.”	
  	
  42	
  U.S.C.	
  §	
  1321(o)(1)	
  
    	
  
•   Therefore,	
  Nebraska	
  may	
  modify	
  state	
  law	
  to	
  make	
  recovery	
  of	
  damages	
  
    for	
  oil	
  spills	
  less	
  burdensome	
  for	
  private	
  ci3zens	
  

                                                                                                                                                  16
RegulaDon	
  of	
  Neighboring	
  Land	
  Uses	
  
•    State	
  and	
  local	
  governments	
  may	
  limit	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  land	
  near	
  exis3ng	
  oil	
  and	
  gas	
  
     pipelines	
  to	
  increase	
  safety,	
  for	
  example	
  by:	
  
     •     Prohibi3ng	
  construc3on	
  of	
  new	
  schools,	
  hospitals,	
  nursing	
  homes,	
  fire	
  
           sta3ons,	
  stadiums,	
  explosive	
  factories,	
  etc.	
  within	
  a	
  set	
  distance	
  of	
  large	
  
           pipelines	
  
     •     Prohibi3ng	
  certain	
  new	
  ac3vi3es	
  in	
  exis3ng	
  structures	
  near	
  pipelines,	
  such	
  as	
  
           daycare	
  centers,	
  health	
  clinics,	
  or	
  businesses	
  with	
  large	
  number	
  of	
  employees	
  
     •     Requiring	
  all	
  new	
  development	
  within	
  a	
  set	
  distance	
  of	
  a	
  large	
  pipeline	
  to	
  
           consult	
  with	
  the	
  pipeline’s	
  owner	
  	
  
     •     Requiring	
  that	
  no3ce	
  of	
  a	
  large	
  pipeline	
  be	
  included	
  in	
  land	
  transac3on	
  
           documents	
  
•    The	
  key	
  dis3nc3on	
  here	
  is	
  that	
  the	
  state	
  or	
  local	
  government	
  is	
  not	
  a]emp3ng	
  
     to	
  regulate	
  the	
  pipeline	
  owner	
  or	
  to	
  change	
  the	
  design	
  or	
  opera3ons	
  of	
  the	
  
     pipeline	
  itself	
  
•    The	
  federal/industry	
  voluntary	
  Pipeline	
  and	
  Informed	
  Planning	
  Alliance	
  (PIPA)	
  
     has	
  more	
  informa3on	
  on	
  local	
  op3ons	
  

                                                                                                                                17
Summary	
  
• The	
  fed’s	
  role	
  in	
  pipeline	
  regula3on	
  is	
  limited	
  
• The	
  fed’s	
  primary	
  role	
  is	
  to	
  be	
  a	
  building	
  inspector	
  
• The	
  EIS	
  process	
  only	
  studies	
  impacts	
  and	
  cannot	
  by	
  itself	
  require	
  
  improvements	
  	
  
• Nebraska	
  should	
  protect	
  its	
  ci3zens	
  where	
  it	
  can:	
  
     –   Construc3on	
  permiqng	
  
     –   Rou3ng	
  
     –   Emergency	
  response	
  
     –   Eminent	
  domain	
  process	
  
     –   Pipeline	
  abandonment	
  
     –   Liability	
  	
  
     –   Limi3ng	
  development	
  near	
  major	
  pipelines	
  
• Otherwise,	
  the	
  State	
  government	
  should	
  just	
  admit	
  that	
  it	
  trusts	
  
  itself	
  less	
  than	
  a	
  self-­‐interested	
  mul3na3onal	
  oil	
  company	
  	
  

                                                                                                        18
AddiDonal	
  Issues	
  

                          19
TaxaDon	
  
According	
  to	
  TransCanada’s	
  FERC	
  
2010	
  year	
  end	
  Form	
  6	
  filing	
  for	
  
the	
  K1	
  Pipeline,	
  it	
  paid	
  far	
  less	
  
per	
  mile	
  and	
  far	
  less	
  in	
  total	
  in	
  
taxes	
  in	
  Nebraska	
  than	
  in	
  other	
  
states	
  

                                                             It	
  is	
  not	
  clear	
  why	
  TransCanada	
  
                                                             appears	
  to	
  be	
  paying	
  very	
  low	
  
                                                             taxes	
  in	
  Nebraska	
  rela3ve	
  to	
  
                                                             other	
  states,	
  but	
  ci3zens	
  should	
  
                                                             ask	
  their	
  elected	
  officials	
  to	
  
                                                             inves3gate	
  this	
  data	
  

                                                                                                                  20
Is	
  the	
  KXL	
  North	
  Pipeline	
  	
  
         Needed	
  Now?	
  

                                                21
Are	
  the	
  Industry	
  Development	
  
                                           Forecasts	
  Reasonable?	
  
                                                                                                     CAPP	
  High	
  Growth	
  Scenarios	
  2007-­‐2011	
  
5000	
  

4500	
  

4000	
  

3500	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2006	
  Average	
  Syn	
  &	
  Dil	
  Cases	
  

3000	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2007	
  High	
  Grow	
  Supply	
  Case	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           R²	
  =	
  0.97531	
                 2008	
  High	
  Growth	
  Supply	
  Case	
  
2500	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2009	
  High	
  Growth	
  Supply	
  Case	
  

2000	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2010	
  High	
  Growth	
  Supply	
  Case	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2011	
  High	
  Growth	
  Supply	
  Case	
  
1500	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Actual	
  Supply	
  Produced	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Linear	
  (Actual	
  Supply	
  Produced)	
  
1000	
  

 500	
  

     0	
  
             2001	
  

                                                         2005	
  

                                                                               2007	
  
                                                                                          2008	
  
                                                                                                     2009	
  

                                                                                                                           2011	
  

                                                                                                                                                                       2015	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                             2017	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                        2018	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2019	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2021	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2025	
  
                        2002	
  
                                   2003	
  
                                              2004	
  

                                                                    2006	
  

                                                                                                                2010	
  

                                                                                                                                      2012	
  
                                                                                                                                                 2013	
  
                                                                                                                                                            2014	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                  2016	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2020	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2022	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2023	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2024	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              22
Why	
  Is	
  Tar	
  Sands	
  Development	
  	
  
               in	
  Canada	
  Not	
  Faster?	
  
•      Very	
  expensive	
  operaDons	
  produces	
  the	
  most	
  expensive	
  oil	
  in	
  the	
  world	
  
•      Marginal	
  economic	
  viability	
  so	
  faster	
  growth	
  happens	
  only	
  when	
  oil	
  
       prices	
  are	
  high	
  (but	
  high	
  prices	
  cause	
  recessions	
  leading	
  to	
  lower	
  
       prices	
  .	
  .	
  .)	
  	
  
•      Cheaper	
  imports	
  from	
  other	
  countries	
  will	
  be	
  used	
  first	
  
•      Remote	
  locaDon	
  creates	
  logis3cal	
  challenges	
  
•      Complex	
  technology	
  that	
  doesn’t	
  always	
  work	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  claimed	
  
	
  
The	
  historical	
  annual	
  average	
  increase	
  in	
  supply	
  of	
  tar	
  sands	
  oil	
  has	
  been	
  
112,000	
  bpd	
  per	
  year	
  since	
  2001,	
  with	
  no	
  indica3on	
  that	
  this	
  average	
  rate	
  of	
  
growth	
  is	
  increasing.	
  	
  To	
  meet	
  the	
  industry	
  forecast	
  that	
  jus3fies	
  KXL,	
  the	
  
average	
  yearly	
  rate	
  of	
  increase	
  would	
  need	
  to	
  be	
  185,000	
  bpd	
  per	
  year.	
  
                                                                                                                      23
Oil	
  Field	
  Price	
  Comparison	
  

                                          24
Is	
  It	
  Really	
  Necessary	
  to	
  Burden	
  
   Nebraskans	
  with	
  the	
  KXL	
  Pipeline?	
  
• KXL	
  was	
  planned,	
  designed	
  and	
  scheduled	
  
  during	
  the	
  boom	
  years	
  of	
  2006	
  to	
  2008,	
  
  before	
  the	
  crash.	
  	
  Everything	
  has	
  changed	
  –	
  
  except	
  TransCanada’s	
  plans.	
  	
  	
  
• Should	
  Americans	
  trust	
  the	
  forecasts	
  of	
  a	
  
  foreign	
  trade	
  associa3on	
  whose	
  job	
  it	
  is	
  to	
  
  boost	
  its	
  industry?	
  	
  	
  

                                                                         25
Thank	
  you	
  for	
  your	
  caring	
  	
  
          and	
  acDon	
  

                                                26
 
                       	
  
             Paul	
  Blackburn	
  
Blackcreek	
  Environmental	
  ConsulDng	
  
                         	
  
               PO	
  Box	
  17234	
  
           Minneapolis,	
  MN	
  55417	
  
               612-­‐599-­‐5568	
  
           paul@paulblackburn.net	
  

                                               27
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