Last Chance Saloon - Staring Down the Barrel of a No-Deal Brexit - Man AHL
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Brexit Update
Last Chance Saloon - Staring Down the Barrel of a
No-Deal Brexit
For investment professionals only. Not for public distribution.
By Man FRM OpRisk
8 August 2019
This update contains three different sections which can be treated as a pick ‘n’ mix depending on your interests:
1. Westminster: An update on what is going on in Parliament and the decisions being made on how the Brexit
process will progress;
2. Asset Management: Any updates in the period from regulators, government bodies, etc, that have a direct
impact on the asset-management industry – including GBP/USD movements;
3. Beyond Westminster: Any updates in the period from wider business groups and the like on the impact of
Brexit, including companies that have announced movement of operations and/or job losses in the UK.
Brexit Countdown: 84 days to go
Summary no-deal members of Parliament ('MPs', a group which
includes both pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit MPs) are assessing
The quote of the moment comes from Matthew d’Ancona of
their options. It seems almost certain in our view that, within
the Guardian:
the first few days of Parliament reconvening, Labour leader
“For how odd would it be for an election about Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn will move a motion of no-confidence in the
triggered by a confidence vote caused by Brexit, and government. It also seems likely, we believe, that Johnson
framed by the prime minister’s readiness to embrace a no- will lose this vote – Parliament has expressed a majority
deal Brexit, to be made both redundant and ridiculous in opposed to a no-deal Brexit on several occasions.
real time by Brexit happening anyway, in the thick of
The uncertainty comes with what happens next. Cummings
electoral battle? One might ask, more pithily: how the hell
is advocating a siege-like strategy: if Johnson can just hold
did we get here?”
on until 31 October, then Brexit will happen anyway. The UK
It appears that the Brexit battle is now entering its final does not have a written constitution, it is defined by
stages as both sides prepare for the reconvening of conventions and precedents. Constitutional experts have
parliament in early September. As widely expected, Boris indicated that it would be perfectly possible for Johnson to
Johnson became the new UK Prime Minister (“PM”) at the delay his resignation and the subsequent election date until
end of July. Since then, he has presided over a sliding after Brexit has already occurred – or more likely (and some
British pound and the gearing up of political manoeuvres, to may say more ironically), since elections traditionally fall on
either facilitate or frustrate a no-deal Brexit. Johnson was a Thursday, that Brexit would happen on the day of the
elected by the Conservative party membership on a promise election. The end game for this strategy is to regain
to leave the EU on 31 October, 2019 by any means Conservative voters that have been lost to the Brexit Party –
necessary. The hopes of anti no-deal proponents – that this if Brexit has already happened, the hope is that Nigel
rhetoric was designed for the Conservative party Farage and his Brexit Party is neutralised. Parliament will try
membership rather than government policy – have been and reassert its authority, however, there are issues here
dashed, as this message continues to be repeated in too. MPs will somehow have to take control of the
increasing volume and urgency. Johnson’s intentions parliamentary agenda to either force an election before
became clear from the start: the former Chair of the Vote Brexit, force Johnson to request an extension from the EU
Leave campaign, Dominic Cummings, was chosen as or (and highly unlikely) force the revocation of Article 50. As
Senior Adviser to the PM, while more moderate cabinet with any battle, the key often comes down to discipline and
members were replaced with pro-Brexit appointments. Anti- unity within each side. Whilst the government appears to be
1/6singing from the same song sheet, the anti-no-deal Brexit Westminster:
side is much more divided. If Johnson’s government is
forced to resign, another government needs to take its Latest Implied Odds From Betting Markets
place. This would be a government with a single mandate to Figure 1. Implied Odds of Brexit Outcomes
request an extension from the EU and then call a general Source: Man FRM; As of 6 August 2019. Man FRM calculates the implied probabilities of
election.
Govt steps up
Sounds simple, right? 45%
May Boris No-Deal
Resigns Elected PM Rhetoric
Except that the MPs forming the opposition to a no-deal 40% Labour No-Deal
Brexit Motion
European
Brexit are not all from one political party. Conservative MPs 35% Election Defeated Labour backs
2nd Referendum
that vote against the government are committing political Results
suicide as they would almost certainly face deselection – it 30%
may also be a bridge too far for them to vote to put Corbyn 25%
in charge. Labour leadership has said it will only back a new
government that is led by Corbyn. However, the Liberal 20%
Democrats have indicated they will only back a government 15%
that is essentially led by anyone else except Corbyn. This
leaves the very real possibility that MPs could successfully 10%
defeat Johnson in a no-confidence vote, but Brexit happens 5%
anyway as no-one can agree who should be in charge in
0%
time to delay it. (See Westminster section).
PriceWaterhouseCoopers (‘PwC’) warns in its blog that the
31 October deadline day is far more problematic for UK to leave with No Deal in 2019
financial services than any of the previous deadline dates. UK to Revoke A50 in 2019
This is because it falls on a Thursday during the trading Another referendum in 2019
Brexit outcomes using prevailing odds as priced by UK bookmakers, which are collated on a
week. Previous deadlines have fallen on a Friday, which daily basis. The graph presents the implied probabilities of Brexit outcomes averaged
would have allowed the weekend to assess and plan for across all UK bookmakers for which data is available, over time. This data analysis is based
upon information obtained from third-party sources not affiliated with Man FRM. Man FRM
what will almost certainly be a highly volatile period. cannot guarantee the accuracy of this data and it should not be relied upon by investors.
Calastone reports that GBP11.7 billion has been redeemed
from UK domiciled funds and moved to funds in Dublin and What Happened Recently?
Luxembourg, with UK equity funds the hardest hit.1 The EU 18 July, 2019 – An amendment to a Northern Ireland Bill
has, for the first time, revoked some equivalence rights for was passed that would require parliament to meet in
some countries. This is widely being seen as a Brexit- October to debate Northern Ireland. This amendment
related warning to not take equivalency for granted. All this ensured that the new PM could not prorogue parliament
has been occurring against the background of a decline in in order to push through a no-deal Brexit;
the British pound: on 1 August, the pound hit its third-
lowest point against the US dollar since the referendum 23 July, 2019 – As was widely predicted, Johnson
result and five of the top 10 lowest points have occurred became the new UK Prime Minister. There were several
since 30 July, 2019. (See Asset Management Section). resignations from the cabinet, most notably former
Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond. However,
Car manufacturers continue to warn about jobs and figures these were expected, as most would not have been
show that most businesses still have not completed the given a role in Johnson’s new cabinet. Johnson placed
paperwork required to trade with the EU post 31 October in key pro-Brexit supporters into the top roles in the
the event of a no-deal Brexit.(See Beyond Westminster cabinet and reiterated his cabinet pledge that the UK
Section). would leave the EU on 31 October, 2019 by any means
necessary. The Democratic Unionist Party (‘DUP’)
agreed to continue to support the conservative
government;
31 July, 2019 – US Congressional leaders and diplomats
warned that they would block a US-UK trade deal if
Brexit affects the Irish Border and jeopardises peace in
Northern Ireland. US President Donald Trump has
spoken positively about a trade deal with the UK;
however, it is ultimately Congress that would have to
approve this;
1 August, 2019 – A by-election was held in the Welsh
constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire. The seat was
previously held by the conservative party, with a majority
of more than 8,000 votes. Following a pact from
1. http://www.funds-europe.com/news/no-deal-brexit-rhetoric-pummels-uk-funds-industry?utm_source=Fund+Europe+Mailing+List&utm_campaign=17a93c39dd-
Newsletter+26+Jul+2019_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3d90ca8a46-17a93c39dd-140428645&mc_cid=17a93c39dd&mc_eid=f94d7f442f
2/6Remain-supporting parties (which allowed the Liberal week or so, Cummings has been vocal about the need
Democrat candidate to stand unopposed by these to push Brexit through. He has also been floating ideas
parties), the Liberal Democrat candidate overturned this such as the PM not resigning if he loses a no-confidence
majority and won the seat by a margin of 1,425 votes. vote, agreeing to hold an election (but after the Brexit
This has now reduced the government’s already slim deadline) or ignoring any amendment or bill by
majority in parliament to just one; parliament that requires the PM to ask the EU for an
3-4 August, 2019 – The UK government stepped up its extension. The general premise of the strategy appears
rhetoric about leaving the EU on 31 October, 2019. Anti to be delay doing anything until after 31 October and
no-deal Brexit MPs have been discussing plans to try Brexit will be done anyway. On the other side are MPs
and prevent this, including a vote of no-confidence in who are against a no-deal Brexit. These MPs are
the government when Parliament resumes at the strategising how this could be prevented. Suggestions
beginning of September. Cummings indicated that have included a no-confidence vote in early September,
Johnson could refuse to resign if this occurred, or followed by a caretaker government with the sole
schedule the election for after the deadline date mandate to ask for an extension and call a general
(meaning Brexit would still go ahead). For more on how election. There are several ways that this could play out
this could play out, see ‘What Happens Next?’ section in the lead up to the end of October:
below;
− Firstly, the UK government could successfully delay
5 August, 2019 – Corbyn indicated that he would be all actions, including resignation and calling an
prepared to bring a no-confidence vote in the election on or after 31 October. Leaving the EU
government very soon after parliament returns in without a deal remains the default option in law and
September. There have been some more moderate preventing this requires positive action. There is a
conservative MPs, including Phillip Hammond, who have convention in parliament that any caretaker
suggested they would support this. It is the convention government (which the government becomes once
that a no-confidence vote can only be moved by the
it has lost a vote of no-confidence) should not take
leader of the opposition;
any decisions that are not considered ‘care-taking’.
6 August, 2019 – The EU stated that the UK government However, there is an argument that since the PM
demands of removing the backstop from the Withdrawal would not have to ‘do anything’ for Brexit to occur,
Agreement were unacceptable, and as such, that there the government would not have taken any
was no further basis for any Brexit talks. Government decisions;
minister Michael Gove then publically blamed the EU for − There are a number of options open to Parliament
being unwilling to talk;
to block this, all of which have challenges:
6 August, 2019 – There has been talk from anti-no-deal
Brexit MPs around a Government of National Unity. This • In our opinion, the most likely option would be
would be formed of a coalition of several parties, with for MPs to take control of the Commons
the sole aim of replacing Johnson and requesting an timetable to pass a bill that requires the PM to
extension to the Brexit deadline before calling an ask the EU for an extension. This would also
election. John McDonnell – Shadow Chancellor of the need to be passed by the House of Lords. This
Exchequer and de-facto Deputy Labour leader – would need to be a bill rather than a motion,
confirmed in speech in Edinburgh that the only way which is not binding on the PM. There has
Labour would form a government would be as part of a already been talk of MPs trying to pass a bill to
Labour government. He also indicated that Labour suspend the normal 3-week recess during the
would not oppose Scotland having a second party conference season in September to
independence referendum, which many have taken as increase the chances of getting this type of bill
an overture for a potential coalition should no party get passed;
an outright majority in a general election. This was • As leader of the opposition, Corbyn could call
followed by the Liberal Democrats stating that while they a no-confidence vote in the UK government
may support a Labour-led caretaker government – they (which he has indicated that he is willing to
would not support one where Jeremy Corbyn was the do). The government could lose this vote (note
leader. that any Conservative MPs who vote against
the government are likely to face deselection
What Happens Next? and therefore the end of their political careers).
We seem to have entered an age of the UK government A new PM or government would then need to
versus parliament. The government’s rhetoric is being win a positive vote of confidence, with the
led by Cummings. Cummings prior role was the chair of single mandate to request an extension and
the Vote Leave campaign during the Brexit referendum. then call a general election. There are several
Cummings is a controversial figure, seen by some as the challenges to this approach. First, it would be
evil genius behind Brexit and by others as a brilliant constitutionally acceptable for Johnson to not
thinker promoting radical policy changes. Over the past resign immediately and call the resulting
3/6election for after the Brexit deadline. Second, − Opinions are split on whether the GBP39 billion
parliament would have to show a majority for a ‘divorce settlement’ agreed by former PM Theresa
new PM or government. Labour leaders have May would be payable. If the UK does not pay this,
said they would not support any new there could be legal consequences and the UK
government that was not led by Corbyn, while could find itself in an international tribunal. There
the Liberal Democrats have said they would could also be political consequences, particularly
not support any government led by him. (They when trying to negotiate a trade agreement with
would, however, support a government led by the EU.
a Labour back-bencher). It seems agreeing on
a new government within the 14-day period Asset Management and Financial Markets:
post the no-confidence vote may be a bridge June 2019 – The Irish regulator, the Central Bank of
too far unless someone is willing to Ireland, clarified what it will take into account when
compromise; judging whether secondment of UK employees to Ireland
• MPs could add an amendment when passing as part of Brexit plans are appropriate. It will look at:
the no-confidence vote to instruct the PM to − Time being dedicated to the operations of the Irish
seek an extension. Equally, an amendment firm;
could require that the election is held before − The sufficiency of local management resources to
the 31 October deadline; oversee seconded employees;
− The extent to which the interests of the secondees
• MPs could pass a bill proposing a second are aligned with the interests of the Irish firm;
referendum, believing that the choice is now 17 July, 2019 – The Luxembourg regulator CSSF
no-deal or a second referendum. It is still not granted UK firms 12 months from 31 October 2019 to
clear that there is enough support in wrap up their business in Luxembourg. After this point,
parliament for this option; the firms would be required to register with the CSSF.
• The courts could intervene by proposing a Firms will need to notify the regulator if they wish to avail
judicial review of Johnson’s use of his powers of this via an online declaration portal no later than 15
to delay an election. Legal action is being September, 2019;
planned by Gina Miller (responsible for the 20 July, 2019 – The EU revoked equivalence for credit
court decision that parliament had to vote to ratings agencies in five markets (Australia, Brazil,
trigger Article 50) and former PM Sir John Singapore, Argentina and Canada) following on from
Major; warnings that they had not matched the standard of EU
rules. This essentially means that European banks can
• MPs could pass a Bill to revoke Article 50. In no longer rely on these warnings. This is the first time
our opinion, this is the least likely option. that access rights under equivalence have been
withdrawn (the Swiss issue in the last update was the
Preparations for a No-Deal Brexit: expiration of a temporary permission). This has been
The former Chancellor of the Exchequer had allocated widely seen by commentators as a Brexit-related
GBP4.2 billion for no-deal preparations. Since Johnson decision to demonstrate that equivalence cannot be
became the UK PM, an additional GBP2.1 billion has taken for granted;
now been allocated; 22 July, 2019 – The National Institute of Economic and
What exactly is meant by a no-deal Brexit? The UK Social Research warned that the UK could already be in
would immediately leave the EU with no agreement in a technical recession. It noted that whilst central banks
place to govern its future relationship. In practice, this and the government could smooth the effects of a no-
means: deal Brexit, they would not be able to reduce the long-
− The UK leaves the single market and the customs term hit to the economy as Brexit represented a
union; fundamental change in the outlook of economic
− The UK leaves EU institutions such as the potential;
European Courts of Justice and Europol (the 23 July, 2019 – The FT reported that the decline in the
European agency for law enforcement); British pound was encouraging UK importers to enter
− The UK ceases to be a member of EU bodies that into complex currency transactions that could ultimately
govern rules on items such as medicines and lead to significant losses. One popular instrument is a
trademarks; target redemption forward (‘TARF’). Consultants are
− Trade terms between the UK and the EU would advising that whilst these trades can be profitable,
initially be set on World Trade Organisation terms. unfavourable movements could mean that holders are
This means tariffs will apply to most goods that UK forced to trade out at costs rates and in larger amounts
companies send to the EU; that they originally wanted to buy and sell. There have
− Border checks on goods would be required;
− The UK services industry loses its guaranteed
access to the EU single market;
4/6already been lawsuits for mis-selling these instruments Figure 3. GBP/USD Movements Since the Referendum
and the concern is the volume of these may increase; AB C D E F G H I J K L MN O PQ
1.50
31 July, 2019 – A blog from PwC highlighted a crucial
difference in the Brexit deadline this time, which makes it 1.45
more challenging in the event of a no-deal Brexit. 31
1.40
October is a Thursday, so this deadline (which, in our
view, is likely cause a spike in volatility in the event of a
1.35
no-deal) will occur during the trading week. Previous
deadlines have all been Fridays, which would have 1.30
afforded people the weekend to adjust and plan before
trading outside of the EU began; 1.25
1 August, 2019 – The Bank of England warned that 1.20
there is a 1-in-3 chance of the UK entering a recession
at the start of the next year as heightened uncertainty
about Brexit continues to weigh on the economy. These
remarks were made as the bank voted unanimously to Source: Bloomberg; As of 7 August.
maintain UK interest rates at 0.75%; A – 23 June, 2016 – EU Referendum – Leave wins 51.9% to 48.1%
B – 13 July, 2016 – Theresa May becomes UK Prime Minister
C – 6 September, 2016 – Government confirms the UK will leave the EU Customs Union
7 August, 2019 – Calastone released figures that show D – 7 December, 2016 – House of Commons votes 461 to 89 in favour of triggering Brexit
by the end of March 2017
that, between January and July 2019, GBP11.7 billion of E – 1 February, 2017 – House of Commons votes to Trigger Article 50 at the end of March
money left UK-domiciled funds and went into offshore 2017
F – 8 June, 2017 – Conservative party loses its parliamentary majority in a snap election
funds predominantly in Ireland and Luxembourg. Of this G – 13 December, 2017 – Parliament passes an amendment to a bill guaranteeing it a final
day on any deal
amount, GBP2.8 billion was in July alone as the H – 16 April, 2018 – UK/EU talks on the political future begin
government stepped up its no-deal rhetoric. UK equity I – 9 July, 2018 – Boris Johnson and other ministers resign from the cabinet
J – 12 December, 2018 – Theresa May survives a no-confidence vote 200 to 117
funds have been the hardest hit from these withdrawals. K – 15 January, 2019 – Parliament rejects the Withdrawal Agreement by a record 230
majority
Interest and Exchange Rates: L – 12 March 2019 – Parliament rejects the Withdrawal Agreement for the second time by a
149 majority
On 1 August, the British pound reached its third-lowest M – 21 March, 2019 – EU grants the first temporary extension
N – 10 April, 2019 – EU grants second temporary extension to 31 October, 2019
point against the US dollar since the referendum. This O – 24 May, 2019 – Theresa May announces her resignation
followed a weekend of increased support from the UK P – 23 July, 2019 – Boris Johnson becomes UK Prime Minister
Q – 29 July, 2019 – Government starts actively talking about a no-deal outcome
government for a no-deal Brexit. The two lowest points
were just after the UK government triggered Article 50 and
the period following the announcement that the UK would Beyond Westminster:
definitely leave the EU Customs Union. Of the 10 lowest FX 28 July, 2019 – French Company PSA (which owns
rate close prices on Bloomberg, five have been in the period Vauxhall) said it would be pulling all production from one
of 30 July-5 August, 2019. of their plants in the UK and move it to Europe if Brexit
renders the British factory unprofitable. This would put
Figure 2. GBB/USD FX Rates
around 1,000 jobs at risk;
1.27 Corbyn backs
1 August, 2019 – BMW CEO Harald Krüger urged
second Boris Johnson Government Johnson to abandon the idea of a no-deal Brexit. Kruger
referendum becomes UK PM steps up no
1.26 had previously warned that a no-deal Brexit could force
deal rhetoric
the company to stop making its Mini model in Oxford,
1.25
which would put around 4,000 jobs at risk;
1.24 5 August, 2019 – Of the 245,000 businesses that need
to complete paperwork in order to continue business in
1.23 the event of a no-deal Brexit, only 66,000 have done
this. The Liberal Democrats pointed out that at the
1.22
current rate of completion, it would take until 2021
1.21 before all these businesses can carry on trading with the
EU. HMRC added some context to these figures, noting
1.20 that these 66,000 businesses represented around three-
quarters of the total trading volume;
7 August, 2019 – The Road Haulage Association warned
Source: Bloomberg; Between 1 July and 7 August, 2019.
the government that drivers face 48-hour queues
without any welfare facilities after 31 October.
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