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Policy Brief No.8/2021 - Learning from the past, preparing for the future: North Macedonia’s EU accession prospects in 2021 Authors: Dragan Tilev and Zoran Nechev - April 2021
Learning from the past, preparing for the future: North Macedonia’s EU accession prospects in 2021 Authors: Dragan Tilev and Zoran Nechev - April 2021 Disclaimer: The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and the Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” – Skopje.
Impressum
_
Title: Learning from the past, preparing
for the future: North Macedonia’s EU
accession prospects in 2021
Publisher: Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS)
in the Republic of North Macedonia
Institute for Democracy “Societas
Civilis” – Skopje
Authors: Dragan Tilev and Zoran Nechev
Design: Dejan Kuzmanovski
This publication is available at:
http://www.idscs.org.mkIntroduction
_
2020 lies behind us. It has been a very the Bulgarian veto to the country’s
peculiar year that changed the life of EU advancement questioned the very
all humankind almost overnight in an fundament on which the enlargement
incredible way. The pandemic has shown process is based.
how vulnerable we all are and how easily
everything humanity has gained can be North Macedonia started 2020 with
called into question, including the values continuing and growing bitterness due to
we count as the fundaments of our the deep disappointment that followed
democratic world. Many of the things the non-decisions at the meetings of the
we had taken for granted were suddenly Council of the European Union in June
either questioned or faced with new 2018, as well as in June and October
existential, moral, and even philosophical 2019. Two years had passed since the
dilemmas. Did we find the answer to all agreement with Greece had been signed
the dilemmas? Certainly not, but we are on and ratified, and despite the promise
a good track to find answers to some of “If you deliver, we deliver”, the country
the questions. No doubts, we still have a still did not receive the long-deserved
long way to go. award: to open accession negotiations. In
2019, France had opposed the decision,
In regards to the EU accession process assumingly based on issues relating
with North Macedonia, the year 2020 to the (perceived) effectiveness of the
resembles a rollercoaster ride designed enlargement process and its potential to
with sudden tight turns, steep slopes, and transform the Western Balkan societies.
inversions. Numerous ups and downs, Finally, at the end of 2019, the French had
twists and turns. Most importantly, proposed a (non-paper) modification thatwould initiate the process of comprehensive their negotiating positions and the terms
restructuring of the accession process under which North Macedonia will be
after being picked up by the European accepted as a full EU member, including
Commission. Thus, on 5 February 2020, the all elements of the new negotiation
Commission launched the Communication methodology. At the beginning of July
on “Strengthening the accession process: 2020,2 the draft framework was handed
A credible EU perspective for the Western over from the Commission to the Council
Balkans”. Therefore, a new chance for the of the EU, hence negotiations between the
accession process of North Macedonia EU member states on the content of the
(and Albania) had opened. On 25/26 March framework effectively began.
2020, the same week of North Macedonia
1
becoming the 30th member of NATO, the While the consultations were going on in
EU Council decided that North Macedonia Brussels and EU capitals, the Collegium
could start accession negotiations without of the Commission announced the new
any further conditions. This marked the enlargement package with annual reports
point of no return for the country’s European for all countries of the Stabilization and
expectations. 16 years after the country had Association Process, including North
originally applied for membership; finally, Macedonia, on October 6, 2020. The
all 27 EU member states unanimously said country was given yet another positive
“yes, we want you in”. report confirming its reform efforts and
continued progress in moving closer to
Simultaneously, the Council of the EU gave the EU. The report was concluded with
the mandate to the Commission to prepare the expectation that the EU Council
a draft negotiating framework. This is would define and adopt the Negotiating
considered the most important document Framework in mid-December 2020,
by which the member states determine during the German Presidency of the EU.
1
Council of the European Union, “Enlargement and Stabilisation and Association Process
Council Conclusions,” March 25, 2020, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-
releases/2020/03/25/council-conclusions-on-enlargement-and-stabilisation-and-association-
process/.
2
European Commission, “Commission Drafts Negotiating Frameworks for Albania and North
Macedonia,” Text, European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations - European
Commission, July 1, 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/news_corner/
news/commission-drafts-negotiating-frameworks-albania-and-north-macedonia_en.
2 IDSCS Policy Brief No.8/2021 - April 2021The Negotiating Framework would have Macedonia, and its own separate history
opened the possibility to schedule the First and by questioning the roots of the
Intergovernmental Conference. Macedonian language and the individual
rights of minorities, Bulgaria blatantly
Unfortunately, and to the disappointment breaches all relevant international laws.
of many in the Balkans, in the EU, and The right to national self-determination
beyond, Bulgaria suddenly – and solitarily has been enshrined in international law
- decided to oppose the drafted text of and norms and as such the Bulgarian
the negotiation framework proposed by allegations towards North Macedonia
the German Presidency. This came as a are not only unsubstantiated, but also a
surprise, at least to some. While differences direct interference with the universal rights
between North Macedonia and Bulgaria of the Macedonian people and state, all
had been present before, the widespread under the pretext of European integration.
opinion was that Bulgaria had never openly Undoubtedly, the demands and conditions
obstructed the Macedonian EU perspective. are inappropriate. They do not belong to
Instead, Bulgaria had been an outspoken any aspect of the enlargement criteria and
supporter of EU enlargement, a role as such are unacceptable. Anyone has
which now appears to simply have been a the right to self-identification, and hence
(strategic) camouflage. 3
nobody can be forced to deny their own
national roots and identity. Some things
The Bulgarian objection to the negotiation are simply not negotiable.
framework remains to rely on a nationalized
reading of the common Bulgarian- From today’s perspective, the situation
Macedonian history. Instead of accepting bears the question whether Bulgaria’s
distinct perspectives, Bulgaria insists on appearance as a strong supporter of North
disputing the Macedonian independent Macedonia’s EU prospects was pretext of
history and historical roots. a hiden agenda. In our understanding the
accession process should have been used
With the refusal to accept the country’s to bring the peoples from both sides of
constitutional (short) name, North the frontier closer to eachother. Instead,
3
Yoan Stanev, “Bulgaria’s EU Presidency: Expansive,” Emerging Europe, April 20, 2018, https://
emerging-europe.com/bulgaria-2018/bulgarias-eu-presidency-expansive/.
Learning from the past, preparing for the future: North Macedonia’s EU accession prospects in 2021 3Bulgaria went in the direction of exploiting and that their implementation will lead
the process by imposing something for to the end of all claims based on a
which the accession procedures are not misinterpretation of history. These draft
desinged for. Instead of building bridges, Council conclusions on enlargement
some current Bulgarian politicians reached unanimous agreement by all
decided to build a wall. This was a bad member states during the COREPER II
decision in the worst possible moment meeting held on December 16. But, last
not only for North Macedonia, but for minute changes produced an immediate
the entire EU enlargement process. After society-wide negative echo not only in
being rejected from all other EU member North Macedonia but also in some of
states to intervene in the negotiation the EU member states. An official press
framework, and after not getting the statement issued by the Ministries of
necessary support, the Bulgarian Foreign Affairs of Czechia and Slovakia,
frustration increased to the point of publicly announced disapproval4 to the
imposing their veto to the negotiation entire set of conclusions, seconding the
framework of North Macedonia. same dissatisfaction expressed from the
Macedonian side. The Austrian Ministry
Maintaining the same spirit, Bulgaria of Foreign Affairs followed this statement,
intervened also in the Council conclusions emphasising that they do not accept any
on the traditional enlargement package bilaterization of the enlargement process.
and country report by adding additional This is seen by many as detrimental to the
elements in the general part of the enlargement process and potentially as
conclusions addressing all Western the driver of further complications down
Balkans countries, about the importance the road. Statements from almost all
of the treaties of the Republic of North Western Balkans countries were clearly
Macedonia with Bulgaria and Greece, against the attempt to introduce the
4
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic, “Joint Statement by the Ministers of
Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic on the Council Conclusions
on Enlargement,” December 17, 2020, https://www.mzv.cz/jnp/en/issues_and_press/joint_
statement_by_the_ministers_of.html.
4 IDSCS Policy Brief No.8/2021 - April 2021reading of the history into the criteria
as precondition for advancement in
Consequences
the enlargement process. Widespread from the current
impression is that Bulgaria with these blockage
moves decided to go against the
_
benefits of the unification process and
instead impedes the EU’s own strategic 16 long and challenging years have
autonomy. It must be noted that German passed since North Macedonia submitted
Presidency did all in its power to bring its application for EU membership and
this “case” to a closure with positive 11 years since it got the first positive
outcome, but unfortunately, it did not assessment by the European Commission
succeed. It seems that the Balkans is to open accession negotiations. The
much more complex than it looks. strength of the Macedonian nation lies in
its generational determination to become
a member of the European family of
nations. The current setback, a bump on
the road towards full integration, is not
something that will bring the country off
track immediately, although it has the
potential to do so. Most definitely, this
detour might prolong the process again.
The case of North Macedonia has now
become a member states’ issue (another
one) that can only be resolved within
the Council. North Macedonia has done
more than enough for the status it has in
the EU accession process. The country
has fulfilled “by the book” all requested
preconditions.
Learning from the past, preparing for the future: North Macedonia’s EU accession prospects in 2021 5The credibility of the EU and the accession what language it uses. Besides Czechia,
process itself is put in question, thereby, Slovakia, and Austria, state representatives
the leverage to push for EU reforms in the on different levels, including prominent
Western Balkan region and resolution of political thinkers from almost all Western
politically difficult questions is becoming Balkan countries, officially confirmed that
almost non-existent. Seeing how the EU they share this standpoint. There has
acts even towards the ‘good pupil’ from been the hope, for example, for France’s
the region, North Macedonia, no one voice to be much stronger and to clearly
should be surprised when the EU becomes defend the new accession approach
a non-issue in other Western Balkan promoted through the new methodology
countries. 5
and intention to strengthen the accession
negotiations process substantially. Those
No matter what, the evolution of the who believe in the transformative power
accession process gives a good ground to of the EU accession process and promote
expect that common geopolitical interests the values and standards it wants to
will prevail over short-sided and short-term bring expected more from France. France
interests based on reading of the history announced le grand retour dans les
instead of projecting a better future. Balkans with the Western Balkan strategy
There are some EU member states that and publicly expressed its clear support
clearly and publicly object this Bulgarian of further unification and continental
behaviour. These states are supportive of integrity of Europe.6 But, with France not
the stance that the EU, and in this case, clearly opposing the current Bulgarian
a single member state with veto power stance, it may further erode the credibility
in the Council, should not be the judge of the EU, as well as the dynamism and
of what parts of the European history predictability of the new methodology. The
are common, shared or intertwined, right way forward for all supporters of the
and how one nation identifies itself or new methodology is to follow the spirit of
5
Ljudmila Cvetkovic, Maja Zivanovic, and Andy Heil, “Red Flag: Ahead Of Serbian Vote, Vucic And
Allies Lean On China Ties,” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, January 16, 2020, https://www.rferl.
org/a/serbian-vote-vucic-china-ties/30674364.html.
6
Elysee, “EU-Western Balkans summit,” November 10, 2020, https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-
macron/2020/11/10/eu-western-balkans-summit.en.
6 IDSCS Policy Brief No.8/2021 - April 2021its words: “When partner countries meet remaining time in office to deliver a clean
the objective criteria and the established sheet in regards to her Balkan partners.
objective conditions, the Member States We trust in her words. Opening accession
shall agree to move forward to the next negotiations with North Macedonia and
stage of the process. All parties must Albania was not only one of the German
abstain from misusing outstanding issues presidency priorities, but it was also a goal
in the EU accession process. In the same she persisted during her mandate. Sticking
vein, Member States and institutions to her promises has been a value (and a
must speak with one voice in the region, virtue) that characterised the Chancellor
sending clear signals of support and in the last decade and to bring the next
encouragement, and speaking clearly Western Balkan Summit back home to
and honestly on shortcomings when they Berlin is hopefully a move in this direction.
occur.” It’s a good moment that France
can put itself in the position of a guardian Time brings change, and in the global
of the spirit of the new methodology. open world we live in nobody is spared
The EU accession process could, under from these changes. That is why
such circumstances, be strengthened Europeans, including the Western Balkans,
by rejecting all attempts, now and in the must be fully aware that the EU as it is
future, to use a strategically important known today will not be the same in five
integration process for imposing bilateral or ten years from now, just as countries
and unfounded expectations on any will change as well. Changes, i.e. reforms
candidate country by any member state. and adaptation to the new circumstances,
Bringing back the trust in the process and become a basic condition for progress, but
making it again attractive, is a strategically also for “survival”. Macedonians will have
and geopolitically one of the most to accept that the country’s negotiations
important goals for the member states for membership in the European Union
and the current Commission. will take place in conditions of constant
change. It has never been and it won’t be
There are also high expectations for the easy, there will be many more challenges
German Chancellor Merkel to use her to face.
Learning from the past, preparing for the future: North Macedonia’s EU accession prospects in 2021 7Adaptability, European continent. At the moment, there
are no viable alternatives to the European
resilience and Union, and this will remain the state of
perseverance play for a longer period to come. However,
_ the country needs to adapt to the current
circumstances, foster resilience of its
North Macedonia started 2020 in thick institutions and economy and finally
fog, waiting for the new methodology. preserve its strategic decision to integrate
In March the decision for opening fully in the EU. From this standpoint,
accession negotiations had the process Macedonians should look back at 2020 as
move upwards with a ray of hope, only just another piece in a puzzle that is being
to end the year being stuck again in the created by working hard and persistently
Balkans mud, because of the Bulgarian during the last three decades.
veto. It’s not the country’s first time, and
probably will not be the last time. But,
the life lesson learnt over the last three
decades can lead to a conclusion that
Do’s and Don’ts for
North Macedonia should not and must
North Macedonia’s
not give up on strategic goals, having in EU future
mind the situation in the EU, the region
_
and worldwide. However, the biggest
mistake the country can make now is to Regardless of the situation in which the
stop believing in the EU, distance itself country is at the moment, it is essential
from the EU accession process and to to maintain the quality level of political
satisfy its ambition with partial solutions. debate at home and abroad to ensure
Only the right strategic decisions will friendly relations with all EU member
take the country where it wants to be. states. The Bulgarian objection has
North Macedonia decided, long-time showed that every vote in the Council is
ago, that it wants to integrate into the EU equally valuable, and not a single member
and contribute to the unification of the state can be underestimated. Politics
8 IDSCS Policy Brief No.8/2021 - April 2021are the result of the possible. That said, EEA North Macedonia may follow the
everyone cannot always get everything, EU, with very high costs for us, but will
nor can everyone be equally satisfied with not become part of the EU and of its
all decisions. For now, the Macedonian political structure. In 2004, the country
government has to continue with the applied for full EU membership, not for
preparation of its institutions and the partial attachment to the EU, neither
developments of plans, as if the country through the EEA or any other association.
would start negotiations tomorrow, so that In this context, associating North
there are no surprises or rude awakening Macedonia in the new Common Regional
when the day comes. Political decisions Market initiative, under the guidance
can be made in a moment, but to build a of the European Commission, should
massive institutional mechanism needs be considered only as a step forward
time. The devil lies in the details and 7
to accelerate full membership in the
therefore, good (timely) and thorough European Union. There is no alternative,
preparation is a half job done. Additional
8
there is no plan “B”, there is only one goal
explanation is required in order to avoid and one plan- “EU membership”. It’s just a
that the European Economic Area (EEA) matter of different paths that we may take
may become a goal for itself and to mix it to achieve that goal.
with the EU membership. EEA is offering
some short-term economic advances, While doing so, on a short-term, North
but is excluding access to EU funds, Macedonia should ask the European
involvement into the policy creation and Commission to proceed with bilateral
participation into the policy decision screenings, no matter that the first
making process. In other words, within Intergovernmental Conference did not
7
Dragan Tilev and Zoran Nechev, “The Devil Is in the Details: Negotiating North Macedonia’s EU
Accession” (Skopje: Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” - Skopje, May 2020), https://idscs.
org.mk/en/portfolio/the-devil-is-in-the-details-negotiating-north-macedonias-eu-accession/.
8
Dragan Tilev and Zoran Nechev, “A Job Well Prepared Is a Job Half Done. The Screening Process
and the New Methodology for Accession Negotiations with the European Union: Challenges
for North Macedonia” (Skopje: Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” - Skopje, June 2020),
https://idscs.org.mk/en/portfolio/a-job-well-prepared-is-a-job-half-done-the-screening-process-
and-the-new-methodology-for-accession-negotiations-with-the-european-union-challenges-for-
north-macedonia/.
Learning from the past, preparing for the future: North Macedonia’s EU accession prospects in 2021 9happen yet, on the ground of clear wording North Macedonia should showcase that it
from the Council Conclusions9 from 25 continues to deliver on the reforms. Thus,
March 2020, saying “…and to carry out the government should accelerate the
and complete the process of analytical process of adaptation and adjustments
examination of the EU acquis with the to the new Methodology10 in all aspects,
country, starting with the fundamentals’ including the institutional coordination
cluster “(basically, giving the mandate mechanisms, taking into consideration
to the Commission to proceed without and fully respecting the key pillars on
further break in proceedings). This move which the new Methodology stands.
will be highly beneficial for diverting the Related to this, the government needs
huge burden from the political to the to accelerate the transposition of the EU
legal and technical side of the process acquis into the national legal system,
i.e. for engaging the administration and with the priority on the fundamentals
civil society into more practical issues cluster’s themes and chapters, preparing
and every day matters that concerns for the accession negotiations but also
Macedonian people. Bilateral screenings in full respect of the implementation
will help both sides, the Macedonian of the Stabilisation and association
government and the Commission and agreement. Revision of the National Plan
Member states, to better understand what for Adoption of the Acquis-NPAA, as
are the priority reforms and changes, not most comprehensive national planning
only because of the process as such, process, brings together the process of
but above all because Macedonians the transposition of the EU Acquis and the
want to build a better state, system, process of preparing institutions and wider
economy, society on the basis of European society for implementation of our new
standards. “European” legislation in correct manner
9
Council of the European Union, “Enlargement and Stabilisation and Association Process Council
Conclusions.”
10
On 25 March 2020, the Council endorses the Commission Communication on “Enhancing the
accession process - A credible EU perspective for the Western Balkans” of 5 February 2020
9 IDSCS Policy Brief No.8/2021 - April 2021and with respect of all European technical of historical events. The country needs to
standards as well. Since it is obvious that do everything possible to create a positive
North Macedonia’s advancement in the atmosphere in which the European issues
EU accession process will depend on the will be discussed in positive manner, so
pace of the implementation of both Prespa that the most successful project in human
Agreement and the agreement with history will not become an antipode of
Bulgaria, the government should ensure what it was meant to be.
that all mechanisms are operational and
fully functional, (including joint structures
in place and experts appointed with a
clear mandate) in order to squeeze to
the maximum possible, positive energy
that the agreements offer. Using the
existing potential and experience, North
Macedonia should invest in bringing the
bilateral relations with Bulgaria to a much
higher level, with a focus on a bilateral
and mutual perspective, confidence and
economic cooperation. At the same time,
the Macedonian Parliament can start an
initiative for a Resolution in the European
Parliament, including all Parliaments of
the Western Balkan countries that would
like to participate, to set the stage on how
to approach differences in interpretation
Learning from the past, preparing for the future: North Macedonia’s EU accession prospects in 2021 10References
_
Council of the European Union. “Enlargement and Stabilisation and Association Process
Council Conclusions,” March 25, 2020. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/
press-releases/2020/03/25/council-conclusions-on-enlargement-and-stabilisation-
and-association-process/.
Cvetkovic, Ljudmila, Maja Zivanovic, and Andy Heil. “Red Flag: Ahead Of Serbian Vote,
Vucic And Allies Lean On China Ties.” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, January 16,
2020. https://www.rferl.org/a/serbian-vote-vucic-china-ties/30674364.html.
Elysee. “EU-Western Balkans summit,” November 10, 2020. https://www.elysee.fr/
emmanuel-macron/2020/11/10/eu-western-balkans-summit.en.
European Commission. “Commission Drafts Negotiating Frameworks for Albania
and North Macedonia.” Text. European Neighbourhood Policy And Enlargement
Negotiations - European Commission, July 1, 2020. https://ec.europa.eu/
neighbourhood-enlargement/news_corner/news/commission-drafts-negotiating-
frameworks-albania-and-north-macedonia_en.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic. “Joint Statement by the Ministers
of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic on the Council
Conclusions on Enlargement,” December 17, 2020. https://www.mzv.cz/jnp/en/
issues_and_press/joint_statement_by_the_ministers_of.html.
Stanev, Yoan. “Bulgaria’s EU Presidency: Expansive.” Emerging Europe, April 20, 2018.
https://emerging-europe.com/bulgaria-2018/bulgarias-eu-presidency-expansive/.
Tilev, Dragan, and Zoran Nechev. “A Job Well Prepared Is a Job Half Done. The Screening
Process and the New Methodology for Accession Negotiations with the European
Union: Challenges for North Macedonia.” Skopje: Institute for Democracy “Societas
Civilis” - Skopje, June 2020. https://idscs.org.mk/en/portfolio/a-job-well-prepared-
is-a-job-half-done-the-screening-process-and-the-new-methodology-for-accession-
negotiations-with-the-european-union-challenges-for-north-macedonia/.
———. “The Devil Is in the Details: Negotiating North Macedonia’s EU Accession.” Skopje:
Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” - Skopje, May 2020. https://idscs.org.mk/
en/portfolio/the-devil-is-in-the-details-negotiating-north-macedonias-eu-accession/.Information about Information about
KAS IDSCS
_ _
Freedom, justice, and solidarity are the IDSCS is a think-tank organisation
basic principles underlying the work of researching the development of good
the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS). governance, rule of law and North
The KAS is a political foundation, closely Macedonia’s European integration. IDSCS
associated with the Christian Democratic has the mission to support citizens’
Union (CDU) of Germany. We conduct involvement in the decision-making
education programs for the society and process and strengthen the participatory
cooperate with governmental institutions, political culture. By strengthening liberal
political parties, civil society organizations values, IDSCS contributes towards
and handpicked elites, building strong coexistence of diversities.
partnerships along the way. Together
with our partners, we make a contribution
Contact information about IDSCS
to the creation of an international order
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that enables every country to develop in
Address: Str. Miroslav Krlezha 52/2,
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E-Mail: Skopje@kas.deInformation about Link
_
the authors
_
This report is available electronically
on:
-
Dragan Tilev is a Research Associate
https://idscs.org.mk/en/portfolio/learning-
at the Institute for Democracy “Societas
from-the-past-preparing-for-the-future-
Civilis”, State Counselor for European north-macedonias-eu-accession-prospects-
Affairs and member of the Cabinet in-2021/
of the Deputy Prime Minister for EU
Affairs, with over 35 years professional
experience. During last 26 years, he is
directly involved in all major activities
related to the integration of the country
into the EU, focusing on coordination
and preparations for Accession
negotiations. From 2010 to 2014, he
was placed in Brussels, as Minister
Counselor in the Mission to the EU.
Zoran Nechev is a senior researcher
and head of the Centre for European
Integrations within IDSCS.Policy Brief No.8/2021
Learning from the past, preparing
for the future: North Macedonia’s
EU accession prospects in 2021
Authors: Dragan Tilev and Zoran Nechev
-
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