Lessons of the MH17 disaster - SEPTEMBER 2014
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Policy Brief
SEPTEMBER 2014
Lessons of the MH17 disaster
Barend ter Haar
The MH17 disaster makes clear that international peace and security cannot be taken
for granted. The widespread support in Ukraine for democratization and rule of law
presents western democracies with a strategic opportunity. The Netherlands should
look beyond its short term interests and develop a long term view on its relations
with Ukraine and Russia. It should not economize on international cooperation but
strengthen it by investing in international organizations and conflict prevention.
Finally: the proliferation of long-range anti-aircraft missiles has to be prevented.
Introduction By far, the easiest reaction to the incident
would be limited to the last circumstance:
The first priority of the Netherlands avoid the airspace over eastern Ukraine and
government was to deal with the direct do nothing else. This paper, however, argues
consequences of the downing of flight MH17, for also addressing the first three, which
flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur requires, inter alia, a reconsideration of
on 17 July 2014. The Netherlands and the Dutch policy towards Ukraine and Russia.
international community will now have to
start considering what lessons can be drawn The recommendations are, in the first
from this tragedy, inter alia, by looking at the instance, directed at the Netherlands
circumstances that made it possible for such government, but clearly also require broad
a disaster to occur. cooperation. This paper will therefore also
The crash was the result of a coincidence of look at the international organisations that
four circumstances: were set up for that purpose.
– weak governance leading to internal
conflict
– Russian interference Weak governance leading to
– a long-range surface-to-air missile in internal conflict
separatist hands
– a civilian airplane flying over the conflict
area. At the heart of the Ukrainian crisis stands the
failure of successive Ukrainian governments
If just one of these four circumstances had to build a sustainable democracy.
not been in place, the disaster could not have Governments have time and again given
occurred. priority to their own interests above fightingClingendael Policy Brief
corruption and establishing the rule of If one takes two full seconds to consider
law. Institutions that in a well-functioning the European history of the last century and
democracy protect the rights of minorities to look at the current situation in the wider
and opposition groups were either non- world, it will be clear that the Netherlands
existent or very weak. needs a foreign policy that looks beyond
short-term economic interests and gives
Ironically, the protestors at Maidan and high priority to supporting international
the protestors in Donetsk and Luhansk peace, rule of law and sustainable
were, to a large extent, driven by the economic development. This requires long-
same dissatisfaction with the lack of good term investment in relevant international
governance. However, the victory of the organisations and bilateral relations. This
‘pro-European’ Maidan movement over has been lacking, partly due to a one-sided
the corrupt ‘pro-Russian’ government fixation on short-term interests and short-
of Yanukovich led to fears that the new term results.
government would neglect the interests of
eastern Ukraine. That part of the country Due to lack of a clear strategy, the Matra
is closely connected to Russia, not only Program to support the transition of Ukraine
economically, but also by a common into a multi-party democracy was dealt with
language and history. Russia used those as an act of charity rather than as a strategic
fears to incite an armed rebellion. investment. The support was useful but half-
hearted and insufficient, and few protested
Why should the Netherlands when, in 2012, the government decided, quite
support Ukraine? blithely, to phase it out and replace it with an
Before answering the question of how even less ambitious programme.
the Netherlands could support the
transformation of Ukraine into a multi-party The argument for giving priority to the
democracy based on the rule of law, two transformation of Ukraine consists of two
questions should be answered. The first is elements. The first is the geographical
whether supporting democracy and the rule proximity of Ukraine; it is closer to the
of law in other countries is a matter of charity Netherlands than Finland, Greece or
or of national interest. The second is whether Portugal. This means that when things go
reforming Ukraine should be a priority for the wrong in Ukraine the effects will be more
Netherlands. directly felt in the Netherlands than when
things go wrong in more distant countries,
To answer both questions, it is necessary to such as Syria or Mali. The disaster at
take a long-term view on the place of the Chernobyl in 1986 and the shooting down
Netherlands in the world in general and on of MH17 are only the most acute and visible
its relations with Ukraine in particular. Both manifestations of this close link. Less visible,
have been absent so far.1 but no less worrisome, are the possible
consequences of what happens in Ukraine
At an abstract level, the Netherlands for the quality of water, air, health and
recognises that its future is inextricably biodiversity in the Netherlands.
linked with those of other countries.
But although the Dutch Constitution states The link is also positive. A stable democratic
that the “Government shall promote the Ukraine would mean a significant enlarge
development of the international legal order”, ment of the European zone of peace and
successive governments have failed to stability and provide important economic
convert this into a concrete strategy. opportunities.
1 See Barend ter Haar and Eva Maas, Threats and
Challenges for the Netherlands, Clingendael, 2014
2Clingendael Policy Brief
The second element is the presence of Russian interference
broad support in Ukraine, both among the
population and within government, for reform The Buk missile that the rebels used on
and closer relations with Europe. Although 17 July was probably provided by Russia.
the transition process will be difficult and But even if the missile had been stolen
take many years, this broad support for from a Ukrainian arsenal, it is clear that
reform provides an opportunity that should the fighting would not have been so fierce
not be missed. without Russian interference. The separatist
forces are supported by Russian volunteers
What can be done? and Russian arms, and often even led by
The transformation of Ukraine is first of Russians.
all, of course, a task for Ukraine itself.
However, together with other countries, The wider problem
the Netherlands could support this process The wider problem is that the current
in a decisive manner. This would require a Russian government is not reconciled to
change of policy in two respects. the break-up of the Soviet Union and is
attempting to salvage as much of the former
First, Dutch support should not be provided empire as it can, either by including a country
as a charity programme that can be ended in the Moscow-dominated Commonwealth
at will, but rather as part of a long-term of Independent States or, failing that, by
strategy. That strategy should make use of nibbling away parts of other countries, such
relevant experiences, such as the enlarge as South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia.
ment of the European Union and the support
provided to fragile and post-conflict states. The very restrained reaction of the
It should help to guide Dutch policy with Netherlands and most other Western
regard to Ukraine in the EU, NATO, the countries to Russian actions in Georgia
Organization for Security and Cooperation in and the Crimea might have strengthened
Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe, as the Russian conviction that these Western
well as to address the question of Ukrainian countries will always give priority to short-
membership of the first two organisations. term economic interests. The recent
As these questions cannot be considered in sanctions might have given Moscow pause
isolation of wider issues such as relations for thought, but to solve the current crisis
with Russia, a long-term strategy with regard more will be needed.
to Ukraine should be embedded in a wider
view of the place of the Netherlands and the What can be done?
EU in the world. The priority given to economic diplomacy,
in combination with the lack of a long-term
A change of policy would also require the view on its relations with Russia, might have
participation of several Dutch ministries weakened the Dutch position with regard
that have so far neglected their international to Russia. What is needed now is for the
responsibilities. For example, the number Netherlands, together with other Western
of Ukrainian students in the Netherlands countries, to develop a long-term view on
is only about 250. Transforming Ukraine relations with Russia and communicate that
will require, inter alia, reforming education, view to Russia. First of all, the Netherlands
local government, public health, the police, should make clear that it will not accept that
the tax system and the legal system. If the European borders can be changed by use
Dutch government recognises that this of force or that Russia has any special droit
transformation is of strategic importance de regard over Ukraine. Second, it should
for the Netherlands, then ministries with continue to argue that a democratic and
expertise in these fields should accept stable Ukraine is in everyone’s interest and
their responsibility for supporting such a that a zero-sum game between Russia and
transformation. the West about Ukraine is, in fact, a loser’s
game.
3Clingendael Policy Brief
That will not be easy, however, because laws of nature. Most nations have, for
zero-sum thinking about exclusive zones of example, accepted limitations on the use of
influence is not only strong in Russia, but weapons that cause unnecessary suffering.
also not absent in the West. The point to But preventing a country or an armed group
make is that the concept of exclusive zones from obtaining or producing a weapon
of influence is outdated. Just as Western can be very difficult, particularly when the
Europe falls within Russia’s zone of influence country or group believes such a weapon will
(eg, in the field of energy), Russia falls within help it win its war.
Europe’s zone of influence. And Ukraine, if
only because of its geography and history, The use of a Buk missile by the Ukrainian
falls in both zones of influence. insurgents is probably the first such use by
a non-state actor, but it is unlikely to be the
last. Who knows what missiles ISIS forces
Proliferation of long-range have captured in Iraq and what they will
surface-to-air missiles do with them? So far, non-state actors will
probably have given little thought to the
use of long-range surface-to-air missiles
There is little doubt that MH17 was downed because they lack the capability. But if such
by separatist forces using a Buk surface- weapons become available on the black
to-air (SAM) missile. What is less clear is market, they might reconsider. A terrorist
how those forces obtained that missile and group might believe that downing a civilian
how they learned to use it. As Russia has aircraft serves their cause. Of course, we
been actively supporting the separatists, should not overstate this risk. There are
not only by providing weapons but probably many other possible terrorist acts that
also by providing personnel, some sort of are much easier to accomplish, such as
Russian involvement is likely. According to kidnapping tourists or shooting an airplane
some reports, the Buk missile was provided with a shoulder-held missile just after takeoff
by Russia. Another possible explanation is or before landing. Nevertheless, it would
that the separatists obtained it by capturing be short-sighted to pay no attention at all
military bases in eastern Ukraine. Firing to the possible proliferation of long-range
a Buk missile is not very complicated: anti‑aircraft missiles.
instructions can be found on internet.
However, it is much more difficult to identify What can be done?
whether an aircraft is a hostile airplane or Few of the existing arms control treaties
a neutral civilian airplane. This is where the bear upon surface-to-air missiles. The most
separatists clearly failed. important one is probably the Arms Trade
Treaty, adopted by the United Nations
The wider problem General Assembly in March 2013. The
Although the number of civilian airplanes purpose of this treaty is to improve the
crossing the airspace of countries in turmoil regulation of the international trade in
is high, the number that have been shot conventional arms. Its scope is wide and
down is very small, at least until now. The includes ‘missiles and missile launchers’.
reason is that missiles that are capable to However, the treaty has not yet entered
destroy planes flying at high altitude are into force and it is questionable whether
sophisticated, big and expensive and that all relevant states will become parties, as
only few countries possess them. Iran, North Korea and Syria voted against
adoption of the treaty, and China, India and
But how long will this last? Here we should Russia abstained. Nevertheless, entry into
take two long-term trends into account. The force of the treaty would help .
first one is that as technology advances it
becomes easier to make a weapon more At the same time, additional measures
effective, lighter and cheaper. The second is should be considered, directed specifically at
that, over time, the capabilities to produce the trade and transfer of SAM systems. The
and use a new weapon system tend to Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)
proliferate. However, these trends are not could be used as an example. The MTCR is
4Clingendael Policy Brief
an informal association of countries that try Conclusion
to prevent the proliferation of missiles that In reaction to the disaster of 17 July, the
are capable of delivering weapons of mass Netherlands should not limit itself to
destruction. It was established in 1987 by a avoiding the airspace over eastern Ukraine,
number of Western countries but now also but should consider how it might address
includes Russia and Ukraine. A comparable the other circumstances that made the
regime could be set up to prevent the disaster possible. It is recommended that
proliferation of SAM systems. the Netherlands government should, in
particular:
– develop a long-term view on relations
The role of international with Ukraine and, on that basis, consider
organisations how to support the transformation of
Ukraine into a multi-party democracy
– engage the whole government in that
Most of the measures suggested above support, including the so-called domestic
require wider international cooperation. ministries
The Netherlands is a member of several – develop a long-term view on relations
organisations set up for that purpose, in with Russia that goes beyond economic
particular the United Nations, the European interests to provide a basis for bilateral
Union, NATO, the Organization for Security relations and for its position in the EU,
and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the NATO, the OSCE and the Council of
Council of Europe. The effectiveness of these Europe
organisations is largely dependent on the – make it clear to Russia that armed
willingness of its member states to invest in intervention in Ukraine is unacceptable,
the work of each organisation, by actively but at the same time continue to strive for
participating in it and by providing the including Russia in a ‘Europe whole and
necessary means. free’
– promote non-proliferation of long-range
In recent years the Netherlands government surface-to-air missiles
has economised on almost all aspects of – play a more active role in relevant
its foreign policy, except for the promotion international organisations and provide
of short-term economic interests. In inter them with the means to do their job
national organisations it often behaved as a properly.
consumer rather than as a co-owner, pushing
its own agenda rather than promoting an
international agenda. The MH17 disaster
illustrates how vulnerable the Netherlands is
to what happens outside its borders and why
it needs to continue investing in freedom,
peace and sustainable development in its
neighbourhood and in the wider world. The
Netherlands should therefore consider not
only strengthening its national defence, but
also, and as least as much, how it could
strengthen international cooperation.
In short, the first of priority of Dutch
delegations to international organisations
and conferences should not be, as is
now often the case, how to economise
as much as possible but how to promote
international cooperation and how to make
the organisation do a better job.
5About Clingendael Clingendael is the Netherlands Institute of International Relations. We operate as a think-tank, as well as a diplomatic academy, and always maintain a strong international perspective. Our objective is to explore the continuously changing global environment in order to identify and analyse emerging political and social developments for the benefit of government and the general public. www.clingendael.nl About the author Barend ter Haar is a former diplomat of the Dutch ministry of Foreign Affairs. As director of Policy Planning he visited Kiev in 2006 for talks with governmental officials, NGO´s and think tanks. He repeated these visits in 2014 as associate of the Clingendael Institute, together with colleagues from other think tanks.
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