Local elections 2018 Insights report - Title

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Local elections 2018
Insights report

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Introduction
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It was perhaps fitting that following a low-key local
elections campaign, election night saw few councils
changing hands. The detail of the results will be
poured over by political commentators and experts in
the coming days, but the headlines are clear: a
modest swing to the Conservatives outside London,
particularly in areas with a strong Leave vote, and a
smaller than expected swing to Labour in the capital
city. Overall, there will be relief at Conservative Party
headquarters, disappointment in Labour circles, and
quiet satisfaction for Liberal Democrats as the party
made modest gains.

The Corbyn team have prided themselves on doing
politics differently and certainly Labour spinners took
a novel approach to expectation management,
starting the campaign with bold predictions of success      With few councils changing hands, it may
in Barnet, Westminster, and Wandsworth - none of            appear that there will be little change in the
which came to pass. Although Labour picked up               way such councils operate or deliver
Plymouth, they lost Derby and Nuneaton. Expect to           services. However the political complexion
see disgruntled Labour MPs taking to the airwaves           of councils where Labour retained power is
over the weekend, but with little impact on a party         changing. We have seen this most
leadership that continues to enjoy the unwavering           dramatically in Haringey, where the
support of the majority of Labour members. Some             respected Labour leader Claire Kober and
may argue that these results show we have passed            her colleagues were targeted in advance of
“peak Corbyn”, but his devoted fans still believe their     the election by Momentum, following a
man is destined for No10.                                   proposed housing partnership with
                                                            Lendlease. We may see further challenges
For Theresa May, the immediate prospect of a                to other established leaders as Labour
leadership challenge looks to have receded.                 Group meetings of elected councillors are
However, the Prime Minister will have little time to        held over the next fortnight. Although
reflect on the results as she grapples with the             councils no longer enjoy the freedoms that
pressing matter of securing Cabinet agreement on a          they did in the 1980s, in the coming years
customs arrangement to put forward to the next              we are likely to see a more polarised local
meeting of the European Council in June. It is on this      politics which will have implications for
issue that danger still remains for her. Brexiteers will    businesses fulfilling contracts with local
feel their hand has been strengthened by the                government. Expect Conservative
Conservative vote holding up particularly well in areas     strategists to keep a close eye on any such
of the country that voted Leave in the referendum.          developments, ready to use any negative
They will likely argue that the party must not let those    material in the election battles to come.
voters down, but this will cut little ice with those pro-
European Conservative MPs who wish Britain to stay
in the customs union. The Parliamentary arithmetic
on this issue remains on a knife edge.

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Policy analysis
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Public Private Partnerships
The recent failure of Carillion has pushed public-private partnerships
(PPPs) and public sector outsourcing into the spotlight during these
elections. Jeremy Corbyn has distanced the Party from the use of PPPs
under previous Labour governments and placed blame for their failure
squarely with the Conservatives. But ultimately, it seems that ordinary
voters have been swayed by other issues rather than considering
something as complex as outsourcing when voting. In Barnet, the
Conservatives gained control of the council despite concerns about
outsourcing, as these were far outweighed by Labour’s problems with anti-Semitism. Meanwhile in
Birmingham, Corbyn’s opposition to outsourcing could have harmed Labour’s performance, with residents
waiting for a solution to problems with refuse collection since it was brought back in house. Now, the
Government needs to defend the measured use of PPPs to provide investment and expertise for public
sector projects to avoid criticism of outsourcing bubbling over in future elections.

Housing
All the main political parties reported that housing was a key issue raised
by voters as they canvassed door-to-door in the run up to the local
elections across England. They each made housing pledges a central
part of their election campaigns, including in Westminster where
Labour’s message was distilled to “vote Labour for more affordable
housing”. Wandsworth was another major inner-London target for
Labour who were hoping that anger at a lack of affordable housing and
memories of Grenfell in nearby Kensington & Chelsea would help turn
the Conservative council red. Conservatives similarly pledged to
increase the housing stock and tackle homelessness. The results this
morning are best characterised by an entrenchment of what has come
before and will be unlikely to shift the Government’s approach.
On Monday this week, the Prime Minister was appointed James Brokenshire as the new Secretary of State.
Since then, commentators have been watching carefully for any change in response to the housing crisis
but the Conservative’s better than expected performance will mean Brokenshire's probable deference to
Theresa May on policy is even more likely.

The environment
Councils have a significant role to play in protecting and enhancing local
air quality and green spaces. The Conservatives’ campaigned locally on
the maintenance of parks and public spaces, including their role in road
and pavement repairs across Trafford as well as reversing Labour cuts to
street cleaners in Dudley. However, both councils now stand outside of
Conservative control. In Trafford, Andrew Western, leader of the local
Labour party, said local issues had been at the forefront of voters’ minds -
particularly proposed green belt developments and the outsourcing of
environmental services to private firm Amey. Ahead of the election,
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell believed that voters would be willing
to consider paying higher council taxes after seven years of Conservative
spending habits had sown dissatisfaction with local services. McDonnell
said, “You can’t just throw a bit of tarmac over a pothole. It’s got to be
repaired properly and that takes money.” However, this message was not
enough to win key marginal councils.

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London – The urban divide
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Labour failed to realise their hopes of dramatic council gains in London last night,
losing the spin war. Despite Labour targeting the seats heavily and Momentum
claims to be on course to “unseat the Tories” the Conservatives held the London
jewels in their council crown: Westminster, Wandsworth, and Kensington &
Chelsea. The Liberal Democrats held Sutton, gained Richmond and could
conceivably pick up Kingston later today. Rival anti-Brexit centrist parties, such as
“Renew”, managed no cut through and the Liberal Democrats can take heart that
neither of the other parties broke out of their current political comfort zones.

While the impact of the Windrush scandal on the Conservative’s vote is uncertain,
the impact of the anti-semitism row has affected Labour as the Conservatives
have taken control of Barnet. Unlike Westminster, the council was one Labour
could conceivably have taken control of. The leader of Barnet Labour blamed the
party’s leadership for failing to tackle the issue decisively saying he had had
Jewish Labour voters in tears on the doorstep. Last night, Shadow Equalities
Minister Dawn Butler outraged many in her party when she sought to blame the
row on former staffers rather than current leadership. The anti-Semitism row
threatens to fracture the party further.

Below the headlines however, Labour has gained seats across London while the
Conservatives are on course to have the lowest numbers of London councillors
since the 1970s. Politically, London retains its own climate. In many ways this
local election demonstrated the entrenchment of a deadlock: Britain's big cities
vote Labour while the rest of the country votes Conservative. The BBC’s resident
polling guru, John Curtice, highlighted that there has been a swing of one pe
recent to the Conservatives from Labour outside London, mirrored by roughly the
same swing away in the city.

 “The next election is far
from secure, with Labour
   piling up the votes in
   cities, and the Tories
 having a near-monopoly
   on the countryside”.

    Labour MP, Liz Nany

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Title
Peterborough   – What’s happening
in Brexit Britain?

Nearly two years on from the EU referendum, these
elections have been a test of whether Brexit is still a
concern for voters beyond the London bubble.
Peterborough is an interesting example of how this
has played out – particularly as 60.9% of the area
voted to leave the EU and the constituency of
Peterborough was one of Labour’s surprise gains
from the Conservatives at last year’s General
Election. It was also an area where UKIP hadn’t quite
given up, standing candidates in 17 of the 18 wards
up for election.

Gaining control of Peterborough is not an outstanding
achievement for the Conservatives – they only gained
one councillor to do so, while Labour needed to gain
16 councillors to take control – but it demonstrates
how Labour’s expectation of building on gains from
2017 has deflated. It also points to where UKIP’s
support has gone following the party’s implosion:
mainly to the Conservatives, fulfilling one of the
party’s ambitions in holding the EU referendum in the
first place. This implies that concerns about delivering
Brexit were more important than addressing
Peterborough’s local policy issues, including the
housing crisis, fly-tipping and cuts to the council’s
government grants.

Peterborough returned a Labour MP between 1997 and
2005, and a Conservative between 2005 and 2017,
indicating that it is a bellwether area where Labour needs
to increase its support if it is to win a parliamentary
majority. Last night’s results don’t offer the party hope that
this is an imminent possibility.

                                                The new composition
                                                of councillors in
                                                Peterborough

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Round Up
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There will undoubtedly have been a sigh of relief in Downing Street
this morning as results came in showing the Conservative vote had
largely held up across the country, and that the Party had even
made some notable gains including Redditch and Barnet.

Going into this round of elections, Theresa May had been at one of
the lowest points of her premiership; staggering under the pressure
of the Windrush scandal and the blow of losing her ally Amber Rudd,
she has also encountered some of the strongest resistance from
members of her Cabinet on the issue of the customs union. Against
this backdrop a Conservative collapse at these elections had the
potential to push the Prime Minister to the brink.

However, today’s results make it more likely that the Prime Minister will continue on until at least March
2019 when the UK formally leaves the European Union. However, they do nothing to dispel the feeling
that Theresa May cannot lead the Conservative’s into another General Election.

The results so far demonstrate a stark challenge for both the Conservatives and the Labour Party,
namely, what is their route to a parliamentary majority? Increasingly, a picture is emerging of a polarised
United Kingdom, divided down the lines of urban and rural; young and old; Remain and Leave. Whilst
the Labour Party has seen their vote increase in the generally pro-Remain cities, the Conservatives are
winning in pro-Brexit, semi-urban, and rural areas.

The Conservatives will need to make a change if they are to create the wider appeal that can deliver
them a parliamentary majority in four years’ time. The question for the Party now is, what will this
change look like? Will the Tories seek to capitalise on their support in pro-Brexit areas and look to win in
Leave voting Labour heartlands, or do they try to win back ground in the more liberal cities? This is a
debate that is likely to play out within the Party in the next few years and may define the inevitable
leadership race when it comes.

In the shorter term, the results are likely to strengthen the hand of the Brexiteers with the Conservative
Party who can point to electoral success in Brexit Britain. At a time when the customs union is in the
spotlight, these elections will certainly bolster the resolve of those demanding Britain leaves the customs
union for good.

Meanwhile in Labour HQ, there will be a number of questions that need to be answered, however with
Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership unshakeable it seems unlikely these will be substantively addressed -
potentially with serious consequences.

                                                                        "We seem to be seeing an
   “It’s not clear Labour are                                           entrenchment of the status
   anywhere near being in a              “What Labour has failed to     quo; a divided Britain in which
   position to win an early general      do is establish itself as a    big cities vote Labour and
   election… the truth is there          party that can win the next    everywhere else votes
   isn’t really much for the Labour      general election… It’s         Conservative."
   party to celebrate this               certainly not a good night
                                         for Jeremy Corbyn.”               - Jonathan Carr-West, Local
   morning”.
                                                                          Government Information Unit
          - Professor John Curtice                - Michael Thrasher
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