Market possibilities within offshore wind - Jon Dugstad, Director Wind & Solar - norcowe
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Market possibilities within offshore wind
Jon Dugstad, Director Wind & Solar
Founders
Government
• Ministry of Petroleum and Energy
• Ministry of Trade and Fisheries
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Trade organisations:
• Energy Norway
• Federation of Norwegian
• Merger of INTSOK and INTPOW Industries
• Norwegian Oil and Gas
Association
• Independent non-profit foundation • Norwegian Shipowners’
Association
• 270 partners/members • The Norwegian Confederation of
Trade Unions
Industry
• Statoil
• Statkraft
170 of 270 Norwegian Energy Partners´ members interested in offshore wind
Offshore Wind – a growth market
… based in Europe!
3,5 18
Cumulative installed capacity (GW)
15,780 MW
Annual installed capacity (GW)
Installed capacity 16
3,0
4,419 Grid-connected turbines 14
2,5
12
2,0
94 Grid connected sites
10
1,5 8
6
1,0
4
0,5
2
0,0 0
1995 1998 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Cost reductions quicker than expected..
180
Source: BVG Associates
160
156
145 140
124
LCOE (€/MWh)
122 120
102 100
85 80
78
69 68 65 65
62 60
40
20
2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Walney Race Bank East Borkum Horns Rev Borssele Krigers Borssele Cluster 1 Triton Hornsea II Moray
extension Anglia Riffgrund III I & II Flak III & IV Knoll Offshore wind NNG (UK) EA1 (UK) Horns Rev 3 (DK)
Borssele 1&2 (NL) Vesterhav (DK) Kriegers Flak (DK) Borssele 3&4 (NL)
Triton Knoll (UK) Hornsea 2 (UK) Moray Firth (UK)
Sources: BEIS, DONG Energy, Bundesnetzagentur, NEV, Energinet.dk, Danish Energy Agency
-… has made offshore wind competitive!
Kilde: Wind Power Monthly/BEIS
Market to 2022
Installed capacity end 2022:
10 50
Cumulative installed capacity
Annual installed capacity (GW)
Source: BVG Associates
15.0% 40 Global 46.4GW
8
Major markets: China, Germany and the UK
6 30
Europe 33.9GW
(GW)
Major markets: UK, Germany, Netherlands,
4 20
and Denmark
2 10 Asia 11.3GW
Major markets: China, Japan, Taiwan and
0 0 Korea
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Europe Asia North America 1.2GW
North America Cumulative Major markets: The US (east coast)
© BVG Associates 2017
Further growth expected (15-17% p.a.)
140
120
100
80
GW
60
40
20
-
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Europa USA Kina OthersTechnology, Supply Chain and Expenditure
Global Forecast to 2022
30,000 • The rated power of turbines has increased over a 15-
Source: BVG Associates year period, from 2MW to 9,5MW – with GE to
25,000 supply 12 GW by 2020.
Expenditure (€million)
20,000 • Monopile foundations will continue to be widely used.
Jacket and gravity base foundations will be used in
15,000 rocky soil conditions or deeper waters.
• 66kV array cables were first installed on a project in
10,000 2017 increasing capacity and reducing electrical
losses
5,000
• Move towards 'third generation' jack-up installation
0 vessels to perform lifts in higher wind speeds – larger
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 turbines.
Project development Turbine • SOVs and drones becoming more widely used for
larger projects located further from shore.
Foundation Array cable
Transmission Turbine installation
Foundation installation Array cable installation
Transmission installation OMS
© BVG Associates 2017The European Market
Europe leads globally
European Forecast to 2022
5,000 50
Cumulative installed capacity
Annual installed capacity (MW)
Source: BVG Associates 4.7%
4,000 40
3,000 30
(GW)
2,000 20
1,000 10
0 0
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22
BE DK FR
DE NL UK
Other Europe Cumulative
• Europe has almost 16GW installed capacity at the
end of 2017
• In comparison, rest of world had just under 3GW
installed at end 2017
• By end of 2022, anticipated to reach about 33.9GW
• Main markets after 2020: UK, Germany, Netherlands
and France
© BVG Associates 2017The Asian Market
Asian Forecast
Asian Forecast to 2022
3,000 12
Cumulative installed capacity
Annual installed capacity (MW)
Source: BVG Associates and
Renewable Energy Solutions 34.4%
2,000 8
(GW)
1,000 4
0 0
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22
CN JP TW
Other Asia Cumulative
• Asia had almost 3 GW installed capacity at the end
of 2017
• By end of 2022, anticipated to reach about 11.3GW
• Main markets after 2020: China, Japan, Korea,
Taiwan
© BVG Associates 2017The North American Market
North America
North America Forecast to 2022
1,000 2 House tax bill would reduce PTC credit
Cumulative installed capacity
157.5%
Annual installed capacity (MW) Source: BVG Associates and House Republicans released their tax proposal today, which would reduce the wind energy
Renewable Resources International Production Tax Credit from 2.3 cents per kilowatt-hour to 1.5 cents/kWh. "The House proposal
750 1.5 would pull the rug out from under 100,000 US wind workers and 500 American factories,
including some of the fastest growing jobs in the country," said Tom Kiernan, CEO of the
American Wind Energy Association. "We expect members of the House and Senate to oppose
(GW)
500 1 any proposal that fails to honor that commitment, and we will fight hard to see that wind energy
continues to work for America."
250 0.5 Report: Northeast could add 8 GW of installed offshore wind capacity by 2030
The Northeastern US could add up to 8 gigawatts of installed offshore wind capacity by 2030,
0 0 according to reports from Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New York. "Offshore wind is gaining
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 momentum as a significant new source of renewable energy in markets across the Northeast,
and these reports demonstrate that this regional resource will create thousands of new American
US Other North America Cumulative energy jobs in the process," said Alicia Barton, president and CEO of the New York State Energy
Research Development Authority.
• North America has 30MW installed capacity at the end of
2017
• By end of 2022, anticipated to reach about 1,2 GW
• Main markets after 2020: US (east coast)
© BVG Associates 2017Emerging markets
Rest of Europe
Estonia
Estonia has a target within its National Renewable Energy Action Plan to install up to 500MW of offshore wind
capacity by 2018, although as of yet it has no offshore wind installed capacity so reaching this target is unlikely.
Finland
There are three demonstration projects operating in Finland, with a total capacity of 32MW. In 2017, the 42MW
Tahkoluoto offshore wind farm was commissioned. The wind farm uses technology designed specifically for icy
weather conditions.
Ireland
In 2014, the Irish government published its Offshore Renewable Energy Development Plan setting targets for
offshore wind development for 2030. Following the plan, Ireland would install a minimum of 800MW of capacity,
with medium and high scenarios of 2.3GW and 4.5GW also envisioned by 2030.
Norway
To date, Norway has 2MW of offshore wind capacity installed at the Hywind floating demonstrator project.
Poland
Two projects announced – 2 GW one with the participation of Statoil Polenergia
Sweden
Slow development but government is preparing the grounds. Grid support by government, merchant project.
© BVG Associates 2017Emerging markets
Rest of the world
Australia
Before 2015, the Government did not support development of an offshore wind industry. The current
Australian Government is more favourable towards an offshore wind industry and in 2015, Australia's Clean
Energy Innovation Fund was established to provide AUD $1 billion to support offshore technologies
(including offshore wind) from demonstration to commercial-scale deployment. CIP invested in one project.
Canada
Currently, Canada has no installed offshore wind capacity. In 2016 the government of Ontario, where the
majority of Canadian projects are planned to be located, announced it is to keep a moratorium on offshore
wind projects until potential environmental impacts are fully understood.
India
In 2015, the Indian Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) announced a National Offshore Wind
Energy Policy, allowing areas within India's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) for offshore wind farm
development.
Vietnam
Vietnam has almost 100MW of capacity installed in the Bac Lieu offshore wind farm, installed in phases
between 2013 and 2015. A further 100MW is currently under construction at the first phase of the Khai
Long project, with the potential for an additional 200MW to be development at the site.
© BVG Associates 2017Opportunities for the Norwegian Supply Chain
• Project Management
• Subsea cables
• Offshore substation structures
• Turbine foundations
• Installation equipment and support
services
• Maintenance and inspection services
• Vessels and equipmentA Norwegian industry!
45 12%
NOK bn
40
10%
35
30 8%
25
6%
20
15
• Norsk markedsandel fra 5 til 10% i 2030 4%
• Internasjonal omsetning 3-doblet neste 10 år
10
• Omsetning nærmer seg 50 milliarder i 2030 2%
5
0 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Total 10 largest Norwegian co´s Other Market ShareFloating wind “first mover advantage”
30% Norwegian content at Hywind Scotland
- Engineering of foundation, tower and
system
- Procurement services
- Transportation of foundations
- Pre-work for joining turbine with
foundation and generators
- Towing, anchoring and operations
- Static and dynamic cabling and
accessories
- Safety, verification and surveillance>300 MW of Demos and approx. 7 GW of Large Projects in Dev worldwide
5
Source: Principle PowerInternational activities 2018 • International Offshore Wind Partnering Forum - Princeton • Taiwan/China 9-13 April • FOWT – Marseille – 25-26 April • Solutions for cleaner Energy – 30 May - Paris • China Offshore Wind Summit 2018 – mid June • Global Offshore Wind – Manchester – 19-20 June • ONS Renewable Market – end august • Wind Energy Hamburg – 25-28 September • AWEA Offshore Wind – 16-17 Oct • Korea Offshore – Oct (TBD) • China Wind Power – Oct (TBD) • Offshore Energy – Oct – Amsterdam
Opportunity is enormous, limited only by our ability to exploit them! Jon Dugstad – Director Wind & Solar jon@norwep.com
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