Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy
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Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy
May 2021
Macro Economic Research Center
Economics Department
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
https://www.jri.co.jp/english/periodical/
This report is the revised English version of the April 2021 issue of the original Japanese version.Disclaimer:
This report is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as an inducement to trade in any way. All information in this report is provided “as is”, with no guarantee
of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to warranties of
performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will JRI, its officers or employees and its interviewee be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or
action taken in reliance on the information in this report or for any damages, even if we are advised of the possibility of such damages. JRI reserves the right to suspend operation of, or
change the contents of, the report at any time without prior notification. JRI is not obliged to alter or update the information in the report, including without limitation any projection or other
forward looking statement contained therein.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2021
The Japan Research Institute, LimitedThe General Situation – Economic Recovery Has Come to a Halt
Figure 1-1 Economic Activity Figure 1-2 The Corporate Sector Figure 1-3 Overseas Demand
The pace of rise in both the CI leading index and Industrial production has been increasing in a wide Exports temporarily decreased due to the effect of
the CI coincident index slowed. range of industries, albeit with fluctuations. the Chinese New Year. Imports rebounded as
production activity picked up.
(CY2015=100) Index of business
(CY2015=100) (CY2015=100)
conditions (Composite Industrial production
110 index, Coincident index) 110 120
index
105 Real exports
105 115
100 110
100
95 105
95
90 100
Index of business Industrial inventory
conditions (Composite 90
85 index 95
index, Leading index)
85 Real imports
80 90
75 80 85
70 75 80
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(Y/M) (Y/M) (Y/M)
Source: The Cabinet Office. Source: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Source: The Bank of Japan.
Figure 1-4 Employment and Income Figure 1-5 The Household Sector Figure 1-6 Prices
Real consumption saw some ups and downs due The decline in both producer prices and consumer
The unemployment rate remained around 3%.
to the effect of COVID-19. Housing starts remained prices diminished as international commodity prices
Nominal wages declined, mainly for special salaries
sluggish. picked up.
(bonuses).
(％)
(％) (CY2015=100) Producer price index
6
6 12 120 160 (y/y % change)
115 Real household consumption
5 10 150 4
110 expenditure index (left scale)
Unemployment rate 140
4 8 105 2
(left scale) (％)
100 130
3 6
95 (10,000 0
120
houses)
2 4 90 Housing starts
(annualized, right scale) 110 ▲2
85
1 2
80 100 Consumer price index
75 ▲4 (excluding fresh food,
0 0 90 y/y % change)
Total cash earnings 70
-1 (JRI's estimates, y/y ▲2 80 ▲6
65 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
% change, right scale)
60 70 (Y/M)
-2 ▲4
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 20 Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of
(Y/M) (Y/M) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,
Source: The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data The Bank of Japan.
The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. of The Cabinet Office, The Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2021
* The shaded area indicates the recession phase. The Japan Research Institute, Limited
.
-1-Business Sentiment Has Become Visibly Polarized
◆ The DI for Business Conditions for Accommodation and Food Services Although the export volume in February 2021 decreased by 6.8% from the
Sectors Has Deteriorated Again previous month for the first time in three months, this was due to the calendar factor
In the Bank of Japan’s March 2021 Tankan Survey, the DI for business conditions of the Chinese New Year. Looking at the average volume in January and February
for large manufacturers was +5, up 15 percentage points from the previous month 2021, exports rose above December 2020 levels, indicating that they are continuing
and recording the first positive DI in six quarters. Business sentiment was boosted, to pick up. By region, exports to China and other Asian countries led the overall
reflecting improvement in earnings as a result of the continued depreciation of the increase.
yen in addition to an increase in exports. Production activities in the manufacturing industry have generally continued to
Meanwhile, the DI for large nonmanufacturers was -1, up only 4 percentage points recover on the back of increased exports. There is a possibility that production
from the previous month, with the DI remaining in negative territory. While the DI activities will temporarily become sluggish as the shortage of parts supplies caused
continued to improve for information services as demand remained strong for by a fire at a semiconductor plant in March is expected to put downward pressure on
telework related services, the DI deteriorated again for personal consumption related automobile production. However, it is judged that there is little risk of a major
industries such as personal services and accommodation and food services due to downturn in production activity from a macroeconomic perspective, as it would likely
the reissuance of the state of emergency declaration. be underpinned by increased production of manufacturing machinery and electronic
◆ Exports and Production Are on a Rising Trend parts, whose exports have been robust.
Figure 2-1 Business Conditions DI by Industry Figure 2-2 Industrial Production and Figure 2-3 Real Exports by Destination
in BoJ's Tankan Survey Export Volume
US
(CY2019 EU
(CY2015=100) (CY2015=100) =100)
China (including HK)
Manufacturing 110 115 120
Asia excluding China
(% points) Nonmanufacturing (consumption-related)
110 110
Nonmanufacturing (others) 105
30 105
100 100
20 100
Forecast
95 95 90
10
90 90
0 80
Industrial production index
85
▲ 10 85 Export volume index (right scale) 70
80
▲ 20 80
75 60
2019 20 21
▲ 30 75 70 (Y/M)
2016 17 18 19 20 21
▲ 40 (Y/M) Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data
2018 19 20 21 of The Ministry of Finance, The Bank of Japan.
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data
(Y/Q) of The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,
Note: 1. 3-month moving averages.
2. Figures in the angled brackets show the shares in
The Ministry of Finance.
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data total nominal exports in CY2020.
Note: The latest two figures in the industrial production index
of The Bank of Japan. are forecasts based on the production forecast index. Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2021
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-2-Exports of Goods Remained on a Recovery Trend
◆ Exports Were Led by Electronic Parts and Capital Goods other processing industries will likely see a further improvement in supply and
Goods exports remained on a rising trend on the whole, although the pace of demand going forward for products overseas.
recovery has slightly slowed since the beginning of this year. By item, while ◆ Sluggish Demand Related to Inbound Tourism Will Likely Continue
shipments of transportation machinery mainly to Europe and the United States were Amid restrictions on overseas travel around the world, the number of tourists
sluggish, those for electronic parts and devices remained firm as global demand for visiting Japan in February 2021 fell 99.3% on a year-on-year basis.
semiconductors picked up and shipments of capital goods increased primarily to It is difficult for the Japanese government to ease entry restrictions for tourists until
China. COVID-19 infections settle down both in Japan and overseas. Given this situation,
Looking ahead, shipments of transportation machinery are expected to remain demand related to inbound tourism is expected to remain virtually nonexistent for the
weak for the foreseeable future given the shortage in semiconductor supply for foreseeable future. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) predicts that
automotive production. Demand for electronic parts and devices as well as capital the number of passengers around the world at the end of 2021 will recover to around
goods will likely drive exports on the whole against the backdrop of the expansion of 50% of the level prior to the outbreak of COVID-19. However, in Japan, where the
telework, an increase in demand for 5G-related products, and growth in capital rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has been delayed, the recovery in human traffic across
investment in line with the sophistication of industries in China. Looking at the Bank national borders may be slower than in other developed countries.
of Japan’s March 2021 Tankan Survey, it is predicted that production machinery and
Figure 3-1 Real Exports by Item Figure 3-2 Machine Tool Orders and Figure 3-3 DI for Overseas Supply and
Exports of Capital Goods Demand Conditions for Products
All items
(CY2015 (CY2015 (% points)
Capital goods Foreign orders for Japanese machine
=100) =100)
tool (2-month advance, left scale) 5
(CY2015 Electronic parts and devices
160 130
＝100) 0
Transportation equipment Real exports of capital goods
140 (right scale) ▲5
120
110 120 ▲ 10
110
▲ 15
100 100
100 ▲ 20
80 ▲ 25
90
90
60 ▲ 30 Manufacturing - basic materials
80 80 ▲ 35
40 Manufacturing - processing
▲ 40
70 70
20
▲ 45
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
60 0 60
2017 18 19 20 21 2005 10 15 20 (Y/Q)
(Y/M) (Y/M)
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of The Bank of Japan.
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data
of The Ministry of Finance, The Bank of Japan. Note: The latest figures are forecasts based on March
of Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association,
Note: 1. Figures in Q1 2021 are for January-February in 2021. 2021 Tankan Survey.
The Ministry of Finance.
2. Figures in the angled brackets show the shares in total
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2021
nominal exports in CY2020.
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-3-Corporate Earnings Have Been Polarized, While Business Fixed Investment Is Expected to Rebound
◆ Corporate Earnings Have Been Polarized regions experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19 infections.
In the October-December 2020 period, sales on an industry-wide basis increased ◆ Companies Have Resumed Capital Investment
2.5% from the previous quarter and current profits increased 15.5% from the Capital expenditure for the October-December 2020 period decreased 1.4% on an
previous quarter, up for the second consecutive quarter. However, it appears that industry-wide basis, down for the third consecutive quarter. This is partly because a
corporate earnings for the January-March 2021 period have been polarized. While decline in orders received in the spring of 2020 during the start of the COVID-19
the manufacturing sector is expected to post increased sales on the back of brisk outbreak was reflected by a time lag as the amount of investment was tracked on a
goods exports, the personal services industry will likely record further losses due to progress basis.
the effects of the reissuance of the state of emergency declaration. Recently, manufacturers, whose business performance has been recovering, have
In the April-June 2021 period, while corporate earnings are anticipated to pick up begun to resume investment activities. In fact, machinery orders and construction
from a macroeconomic perspective upon the lifting of the state of emergency starts, which are leading indicators of capital investment, have picked up since the
declaration, the severe situation will likely continue in the personal services industry, fall of 2020. According to the Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey, capital expenditure
where ongoing restrictions are in place such as shortened operating hours and limits plans (large enterprises, industry-wide basis) for fiscal 2021 are 3.0% higher than
imposed on the number of persons in venues amid an increase in the number of those of the previous year, which indicates that they are solid as initial plans.
Figure 4-1 Sales Value of Japanese Figure 4-2 Current Profits of Japanese Figure 4-3 Business Fixed Investment of
Corporations by Type Corporations by Type Japanese Corporations by Type
(CY2010 = 100) (Trillion yen) (Trillion yen)
120 Manufacturing Manufacturing
16 9
Manufacturing
115 14 Nonmanufacturing
Nonmanufacturing
Nonmanufacturing 8
110 12
10 7
105
8 6
100
6
95 5
4
90 4
2
85 0 3
80 ▲2
2
75 ▲4 200506 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2005 06 07 08 09 10 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 200506 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 (Y/Q)
(Y/Q) (Y/Q)
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data
of The Ministry of Finance.
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data
Note: 1. All industries except for financial services and insurance.
of The Ministry of Finance. of The Ministry of Finance.
2. Excluding software investment.
Note: All industries except for financial services and insurance. Note: All industries except for financial services and insurance.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2021
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-4-The Wage Increase Rate for This Year's Spring Labor Offensive Is Expected to Fall Below 2%
◆ The Impact of the Extension of the State of Emergency Declaration Has bloated workforce among enterprises has remained at its highest level since the
Been Limited December 2013 Tankan Survey, and employment adjustment will be unavoidable in
The number of workers in February 2021 decreased by 30,000 from the previous the future, mainly in the food services and accommodation industries which have
month, while the number of unemployed persons remained virtually flat month-over- been significantly affected by the pandemic.
month. Although the state of emergency declaration was extended, there has been ◆ Total Cash Earnings Saw a Decline
no prominent deterioration in employment conditions thus far. Even food services COVID-19 has also had ripple effects on wages. Total cash earnings (on the basis
operators, which suffered from a fall in sales as a result of being required to shorten of common business establishments) in January 2021 plunged 1.0% year-on-year,
their hours of operation, appear to have maintained employment levels by means of recording a year-on-year decline for the tenth consecutive month. Regarding future
business suspensions and other measures. prospects, while non-scheduled salaries (overtime pay) will likely return to positive
Despite the foregoing, the number of new COVID-19 cases surged again in many territory upon the recovery of economic activity, the perception of a bloated workforce,
regions after the lifting of the state of emergency declaration. It is inevitable that the which will remain at a high level, among other factors, are expected to exert
employment environment will be negatively affected to a certain extent by various downward pressure on scheduled salaries. As a result, the wage increase rate for
restrictions on activities such as tougher measures to control the spread of COVID- this year's spring labor offensive is expected to fall below 2% for the first time since
19 (so-called “Manbo”), which will continue to weigh on corporate activities. 2013, and the expectation of a marked improvement in wages is unlikely.
According to the Bank of Japan’s March 2021 Tankan Survey, the perception of a
Figure 5-1 Number of Employees and Number Figure 5-2 Tankan DI of Employment Conditions Figure 5-3 Wage Increase Rate for
of Unemployed Persons and Unemployment Rate Spring Labor Offensive
Wage increase rate for spring labor offensive
DI ("excessive employment"
(10,000 (10,000 (tallied up by Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare)
- "insufficient employment")
persons) persons)
(% points) Wage increase rate for spring labor offensive
(%) (%) (tallied up by Japanese Trade Union Confederation)
6,800 240 30 6
3.0 Scheduled salaries (full-time workers, y/y %)
6,750 220 20 2.5
5
10 2.0
6,700 200
0 1.5
6,650 180 4
▲ 10 1.0
6,600 160
▲ 20 DI of employment conditions 0.5
(1-quarter advance, left scale) 3
6,550 Number of employees (left scale) 140 ▲ 30 Unemployment rate (right scale) 0.0
Number of unemployed persons (right scale)
▲ 0.5
6,500 120 ▲ 40 2
2013 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
2018 19 20 21 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
(FY)
(Y/Q)
(Y/M) Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japanese
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of The Bank of Japan, The Ministry of Internal Affairs Trade Union Confederation.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. and Communications.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2021
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-5-Private Consumption Will Likely Remain Sluggish for a Long Period of Time
◆ The Pace of Recovery in Personal Spending Has Slowed employment environment, such as the rise in the unemployment rate, is expected to
Consumption based on credit card settlements in February 2021 declined for the exert downward pressure on consumption recovery. Therefore, private spending is
12th consecutive month, down 9.8% compared to the same month in 2018, at which highly likely to remain below the level that existed prior to the outbreak of COVID-19.
time there was no impact from the consumption tax hike. However, the decline It is predicted that the recovery in personal consumption will not become clear until
slightly diminished from the previous month, and the tendency toward self-restraint this autumn and thereafter when COVID-19 vaccines become widely available mainly
among households has not grown much even amid the extension of the state of among the elderly.
emergency declaration. The number of people visiting retail and entertainment ◆ Housing Investment is Expected to Remain Lackluster
facilities further recovered between February and March, indicating a pick-up in The number of housing starts (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in February 2021
consumption activities. stood at 808,000, remaining at the low level of around 800,000 since the spring of
As for future prospects, private consumption for the April-June 2021 period will 2020. As for future prospects, against the backdrop of a more cautious lending
likely rebound to the level seen last autumn as a result of the lifting of the state of approach by financial institutions toward apartment construction projects, in addition
emergency declaration. Nevertheless, as it is difficult to predict when the spread of to weak consumer confidence due to the worsening employment and income
COVID-19 will settle down, a wide range of restrictions on activities will remain in an environment, housing investment will likely remain lackluster on the whole.
effort to curb the number of new COVID-19 cases, and the deterioration in the
Figure 6-1 Consumption Based on Figure 6-2 Number of People Who Visited Figure 6-3 JRI's Forecast of Private
Credit Card Settlements Retail and Entertainment Facilities Consumption Expenditure
(Median in first
(%) 5 weeks of 2020)
(CY2018=100)
10 【Forecast】
110 102
5
100 100
0
90 98
▲5
▲ 10 80 96
Goods
▲ 15 94
70
Services
▲ 20
92
Total 60 The whole country
▲ 25
Osaka 90
50
▲ 30 Tokyo
88
▲ 35 40 2018 19 20 21
2019 20 21 2020/3 2020/5 2020/7 2020/9 2020/11 2021/1 2021/3 (Y/Q)
(Y/M) (Y/M/D)
Source: Forecast of The Japan Research Institute, Ltd.
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of
based on data of The Cabinet Office.
of JCB Consumption NOW. Google "Covid-19 community mobility report."
Note: 7-day moving averages.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2021
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-6-Topic: Senior Consumer Spending Is Key to a Full-Fledged Recovery
◆ Senior Consumer Spending Has Been Sluggish Due to Voluntary ◆ There Is Room for Consumption Increase Amounting to Four Trillion Yen
Restraint on Outings and Low Usage of Online Shopping On the other hand, elderly household income has been stable even amid the
In Japan, consumption by elderly households (households with non-working COVID-19 pandemic. This is due to upward revision of pension benefits for fiscal 2020,
householders aged 60 or older) has been sluggish, dropping more than that of reflecting the economic situation prior to the outbreak of COVID -19. The amount of
working households (households with householders aged 59 or younger). Since pension benefits for fiscal 2021 is expected to decrease only by 0.1% from the
consumption by elderly households accounts for about half of total consumption, it has previous year. This is in contrary to working households whose incomes have
a significant impact on the economy. declined due to deterioration of corporate earnings. As a result of a decrease in
Senior consumer spending has declined since many elderly people are refraining consumption despite steady income, the propensity to consume among elderly
from going out due to concerns about coronavirus infection and the risk of severe households declined significantly. If the opportunity for consumption returns and the
illness. People in their 60s and 70s tend to go out less frequently compared to those propensity to consume recovers to the level prior to the outbreak of COVID -19,
who are young or middle-aged. Sluggish consumption among the elderly is also consumption by elderly households will increase by about 4 trillion yen. This amounts
attributable to the fact that many elderly people are not accustomed to using the to about one-fourth of the decrease in personal consumption seen in 2020 (17 trillion
Internet, and online shopping among the elderly has therefore been low. yen).
Figure 7-1 Real Consumption Expenditure Figure 7-2 Household Income by Figure 7-3 Average Propensity to Consume
by Household Type Age Group of Householders by Household Type
Working households (with householders Working households (with householders aged 30 - 39) (%) (%)
aged 59 or younger)
Working households (with householders aged 40 - 49) 90 140
(%) Elderly households (with non-working
householders aged 60 or older) Working households (with householders aged 50 - 59)
(%)
0 Elderly households (with non-working householders 80 130
8 Working households
aged 60 or older)
▲1 (with householders aged
6 70 59 or younger, left scale) 120
▲2
4 60 110
▲3
2 50 100
▲4
▲5
0 Elderly households
40 90
(with non-working
▲2 householders aged
▲6
30 60 or older, right scale) 80
▲7 ▲4
20 70
▲8 ▲6 2019 20 21
2020/Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 21/Q1 2020/Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 21/Q1 (Y/M)
(Y/Q) (Y/Q)
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Note: Households with 2 or more household members.
Note: 1. Households with 2 or more household members. Note: 1. Households with 2 or more household members.
2. The figure in Q1 2021 is for January 2021. 2. The figure in Q1 2021 is for January 2021 (year-on-
year % change of the 3-month moving average). Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2021
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-7-Prospects for Japan's Economy - Projected Real GDP Change; -5.0% for FY2020 and 4.0% for FY2021
◆ Japan’s Economic Recovery Is Expected to Become Clear After This
Autumn (2) Japan’s Growth Rate for FY2021 Is Expected to Be +4.0%
As a result, Japan will likely see negative growth for FY2020 at a rate of minus
(1) The April-June 2021 Period Will Likely See Positive Growth 5.0%, while the growth rate is expected to turn positive at +4.0% in FY2021 on the
The January-March 2021 period is expected to see negative growth for the first back of accelerated growth anticipated for the second half of the year. Japan’s GDP
time in three quarters, as the government declared a state of emergency once again. is forecast to return to its peak level seen prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 around
However, the April-June 2021 period will likely see positive growth at an annual rate the end of 2022.
of nearly 10% as economic activities pick up following the lifting of the state of
emergency declaration, recovering from the decline in the previous quarter. Tougher
measures to control the spread of COVID-19 (so-called “Manbo”) have been applied ◆ Prices Have Been Declining
to Osaka Prefecture and two other prefectures, where a resurgence in coronavirus
infections has been prominent, since April 5. However, since the tougher COVID-19 (3) In February 2021, core CPI declined 0.4% year-on-year, showing a smaller year-
measures, such as the requirement for restaurants and bars to shorten their hours of on-year decline compared to the previous month. This is attributable mainly to the
operation, with possible fines for non-compliance, will only be implemented in limited fact the decline in energy prices diminished as a result of the recovery in crude oil
areas, the negative effects on the macroeconomy are expected to be limited prices.
compared to those under the state of emergency declaration. As for the future outlook, while energy prices are expected to increase year-on-
Despite the foregoing, as it is difficult to predict when the spread of COVID-19 will year, there will be strong downward pressure on prices from the viewpoint of supply
settle down, people will continue to refrain from consumption activities considered to and demand. Consequently, core CPI will likely remain in negative territory for the
have a high risk of infection such as dining out. Consequently, economic activity is time being.
anticipated to remain below the level prior to the outbreak of COVID-19. Japan’s
economic recovery will not likely become clear until this autumn when COVID-19
vaccines become widely available mainly among the elderly.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2021
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-8-Figure 9 Projections for GDP Growth and Main Indicators of Japan ( as of April 5, 2021 )
(% changes from the
(seasonally adjusted, annualized % changes from the previous quarter) previous fiscal year)
CY2020 CY2021 CY2022 CY2023
FY2020 FY2021 FY2022
7～9 10～12 1～3 4～6 7～9 10～12 1～3 4～6 7～9 10～12 1～3
(Actual) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection)
Real GDP 22.8 11.7 ▲ 7.2 8.2 1.0 2.9 3.6 2.8 1.5 1.1 1.1 ▲ 5.0 4.0 2.3
Private Consumption Expenditure 22.0 9.0 ▲ 13.2 14.0 0.2 3.9 4.2 3.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 ▲ 6.5 3.7 2.6
Housing Investment ▲ 20.9 0.2 2.6 3.9 ▲ 2.1 3.0 3.5 3.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 ▲ 7.3 0.2 1.7
Business Fixed Investment ▲ 9.2 18.2 3.6 2.7 1.0 4.4 4.4 4.2 3.2 2.4 2.1 ▲ 6.2 3.9 3.5
Private Inventories (percentage points contribution) (▲ 0.7) (▲ 2.2) ( 1.0) ( 0.2) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) (▲ 0.2) (▲ 0.1) ( 0.0)
Government Consumption Expenditure 12.1 7.6 ▲ 4.2 2.6 3.2 ▲ 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.3 2.0 0.8
Public Investment 3.8 6.1 ▲ 3.9 ▲ 1.4 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.5 ▲ 1.0 ▲ 1.2 0.0 4.2 ▲ 0.0 0.0
Net Exports (percentage points contribution) ( 11.3) ( 4.4) (▲ 0.3) (▲ 0.2) ( 0.1) ( 0.2) ( 0.2) ( 0.1) ( 0.1) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) (▲ 0.8) ( 1.1) ( 0.1)
Exports of Goods and Services 33.2 52.4 9.8 3.4 4.3 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.3 3.5 3.5 ▲ 10.7 11.6 4.4
Imports of Goods and Services ▲ 29.0 17.0 12.8 4.9 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.4 ▲ 6.0 4.8 3.8
(Ref.) Domestic Private Demand (percentage points contribution) ( 7.7) ( 5.1) (▲ 5.4) ( 8.1) ( 0.2) ( 2.9) ( 3.1) ( 2.4) ( 1.3) ( 1.0) ( 1.0) (▲ 5.0) ( 2.5) ( 2.0)
(Ref.) Public Demand (percentage points contribution) ( 2.8) ( 1.9) (▲ 1.1) ( 0.5) ( 0.7) (▲ 0.2) ( 0.4) ( 0.2) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.1) ( 0.9) ( 0.4) ( 0.2)
(% changes from the
(% changes from the same quarter of the previous year) previous fiscal year)
Nominal GDP ▲ 4.7 ▲ 1.1 ▲ 2.9 7.8 2.4 0.8 4.1 2.7 3.0 2.4 1.8 ▲ 4.4 3.7 2.5
GDP deflator 1.2 0.3 ▲ 0.3 ▲ 0.6 ▲ 0.8 ▲ 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 ▲ 0.3 0.2
Consumer Price Index (excluding fresh food) ▲ 0.2 ▲ 0.9 ▲ 0.5 ▲ 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 ▲ 0.4 0.4 0.5
(excluding fresh food, consumption tax, education free of charge) ▲ 0.5 ▲ 0.9 ▲ 0.4 ▲ 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 ▲ 0.5 0.4 0.5
Unemployment Rate (％) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.0
Exchange Rates (JY/US$) 106 104 106 110 111 112 113 112 112 113 114 106 112 113
Import Price of Crude Oil (US$/barrel) 41 44 56 63 62 63 61 61 62 61 62 43 62 62
Source: The Cabinet Office; The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; The Ministry of Finance.
The projection figures are based on those of The Japan Research Institute, Ltd.
Note : "▲" indicates minus.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2021
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
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