Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy
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Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy
April 2020
Macro Economic Research Center
Economics Department
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
https://www.jri.co.jp/english/periodical/
This report is the revised English version of the March 2020 issue of the original Japanese version.Disclaimer:
This report is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as an inducement to trade in any way.
All information in this report is provided "as is", with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and
without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will
JRI, its officers or employees be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information in this report or for any damages, even if
we are advised of the possibility of such damages. JRI reserves the right to suspend operation of, or change the contents of, the report at any time without prior notification.
JRI is not obliged to alter or update the information in the report, including without limitation any projection or other forward looking statement contained therein.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy April 2020
The Japan Research Institute, LimitedThe General Situation of Japan’s Economy – Economic Activity Has Declined
Figure 1-1 Economic Activity Figure 1-2 The Corporate Sector Figure 1-3 Overseas Demand
Indices of business conditions remained on a declining Industrial production index rose for the second consecutive Exports, mainly those of automobiles to the United States,
trend both in terms of the CI coincident index and the CI month, as a result of the recovery in production following remained sluggish. Imports decreased, particularly of mobile
leading index. natural disasters. phones.
(CY2015=100) (CY2015=100) (CY2015=100)
Index of business
110 conditions (Composite 110 120
index , Coincident index) Industrial production
index Real ex ports
115
105
105
110
100
100 105
95 100
95
Index of business 95
90 conditions (Composite
index , Leading index) Industrial inv entory 90 Real imports
90 index
85
85
80 85 80
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
(Y/M) (Y/M) (Y/M)
Source: The Cabinet Office. Source: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Source: The Bank of Japan.
Figure 1-4 Employment and Income Figure 1-5 The Household Sector Figure 1-6 Prices
Producer prices picked up, mainly for petroleum
The unemployment rate is hovering around its lowest Real household consumption declined after the consumption
products. The pace of increase in consumer prices
level since 1993. Nominal wages have been on a rising tax rate hike. Housing starts have been sluggish.
rose moderately.
trend despite some ups and downs. (％)
(％) (CY2015=100) Producer price index
12 6 (y /y % change)
5.5 120 160
10 115 150 4
4.5 Real household consumption
Unemployment rate 110
(left scale) 8 ex penditure index (left scale) 140
3.5 2
105
(％) 130
6 (10,000
100
2.5 houses)
120 0
4 95
Housing starts 110
1.5 90 (annualized, right scale) ▲2
2
100 Consumer price index
0.5 85
0 ▲4 (ex cluding fresh food,
80 90 y /y % change)
Total cash earnings
-0.5 (JRI's estimates, y/y ▲2 80
75 ▲6
% change, right scale) 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-1.5 ▲4 70 70 (Y/M)
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of
(Y/M) (Y/M) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,
Source: The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data The Bank of Japan.
The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. of The Cabinet Office, The Ministry of Land,
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy April 2020
Infrastructure and Transport.
* The shaded area indicates the recession phase. The Japan Research Institute, Limited
.
-1-There Has Been Increased Downward Pressure on Both Domestic and Overseas Demand
◆ Real GDP Significantly Declined in the October to December Period up 1.0% from the previous month. Production in the automobile industry substantially
Based on the Second Preliminary Quarterly Estimates of the GDP, Japan’s real increased as a result of the recovery in production following natural disasters in
GDP for the October to December 2019 period declined 7.1% on an annualized autumn last year.
quarter-on-quarter change basis, showing significant negative growth for the first Looking at future production plans, industrial production is forecast to continue to
time since the previous consumption tax rate hike (when real GDP declined 7.4% on increase in February, up 5.3% month-over-month. However, industrial production will
an annualized quarter-on-quarter change basis for the April to June 2014 period). likely decrease sharply in March, down 6.9% month-over-month. Since the effects of
Looking at domestic demand, private consumption fell 10.6% on an annualized the spread of the novel coronavirus have not been fully reflected on production plans,
quarter-on-quarter change basis, due to a combination of negative factors such as there is a chance that industrial production will decrease substantially.
large typhoons and a warm winter in addition to the effects of the consumption tax ◆ Public Investment Has Remained Firm
rate hike. Capital investment also fell 17.3%, owing to plant shutdowns caused by Public investment remained on a rising trend, as public works projects which had
the typhoon. In overseas demand, exports, mainly to the United States, fell for the accumulated prior to the consumption tax hike have been implemented. The contract
second straight quarter. amount of public works projects, which serves as a leading indicator, is expected to
◆ Industrial Production Saw an Increase increase again following the execution of the fiscal 2019 supplementary budget,
The industrial production index for January rose for the second consecutive month, although the increase has been sluggish currently.
Figure 2-1 Real GDP Change Rate by Demand Item Figure 2-2 Industrial Production Index Figure 2-3 Completed and Contract Amounts
Priv ate consumption Housing inv estment
ex penditure (CY2015＝100) Shipments (CY2015＝100) Completed amount of public w orks
Business fix ed Priv ate inv entories (left scale)
inv estment changes 120 Inv entories (right scale) 110 (Trillion yen) (Trillion yen)
Contract amount for public w orks
(％) Net ex ports 24 projects (3-month adv ance, right scale) 16
Public demand
115 105
8 Real GDP
23
100 15
6 110
22
4 95
14
105
2 90 21
100 13
0
85 20
▲2
95 80 12
19
▲4
90 75 18 11
▲6 2013 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2015 16 17 18 19 20
(Y/M) (Y/M)
▲8
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data
▲ 10 of The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. of The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport,
2015 16 17 18 19
Note: The latest two figures in the industrial production East Japan Construction Surety Co., Ltd.
(Y/Q)
index are forecasts for February and March 2020 Note: Non-dwelling.
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data
of The Cabinet Office. based on the production forecast index. Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy April 2020
. The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-2-Topic: Domestic Consumption Activity Slows Significantly Due to the Effects of the Novel Coronavirus
◆ The Novel Coronavirus Has Put Downward Pressure on the Economy consumption. In particular, the consumption of leisure and other services, which is
The economy is expected to fall sharply in the near term due to the spread of the expected to be most negatively impacted, will likely continue to be restrained on a
novel coronavirus which arose from Wuhan, China. voluntary basis until the outbreak of the novel coronavirus is completely resolved.
The decline in production activities in China has had a negative impact on exports ◆ Economic Activity Will Likely Return to Normal Around Mid-year at the
and production in Japan. However, domestic consumption has been more seriously Earliest
affected. In addition to Chinese tourists, the decline in the number of visitors from The future trend of the economy will depend on the spread of the novel coronavirus.
other countries and regions to Japan has also pushed down consumption related to If the outbreak comes to an end, the economy is expected to grow at a high rate as it
inbound tourism. Japan’s GDP growth in the January to March period will likely be normalizes. However, since it will take time to completely eliminate the adverse
reduced by 1.3% on an annualized quarter-on-quarter change basis as a result of the effects on consumption related to inbound tourism and domestic household
decline in consumption related to inbound tourism alone. consumption, economic activity is expected to return to normal around mid-year at
Furthermore, domestic household consumption has declined significantly due to the earliest. On the other hand, if the pandemic continues for a long time or becomes
the increase in the number of people who have been infected with the coronavirus in more serious, an increase in corporate bankruptcies could further dampen the
Japan. Recently, a growing number of people have refrained from leaving their economy.
homes because of fears of infection, and this has been weighing on overall
Figure 3-1 Manufacturing PMI in China Figure 3-2 Market Size of Services Figure 3-3 JRI Projections of Real GDP
Consumption
(％ points) (Trillion yen)
(Trillion yen)
【JRI projection】
55 20 545
As of March 2020
18 As of December 2019
16
50 14 540
12
10
45 8
535
6
4
2
40 530
0
Food serv ices
Mov ies, arts, etc.
Ov erseas travel
Domestic trav el
Amusement parks
Various lessons
Sports
35 525
2015 16 17 18 19 20 2018 19 20
(Y/M) (Y/Q)
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of
The Cabinet Office.
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of Note: Projections by JRI.
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. Japan Productivity Center. Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy April 2020
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-3-Temporary Decline in Exports of Both Goods and Services Is Inevitable
◆ Exports of Goods Continued to Stagnate the previous month. While the number of South Korean tourists visiting Japan
Exports of goods remained sluggish. By product, while exports of electronic continued to decline, the number of visitors to Japan from East Asia, excluding South
components and devices are recovering as the global semiconductor market has Korea, increased as the Chinese New Year holiday fell in January this year.
bottomed out, exports of transport equipment have declined significantly. Looking at However, consumption related to inbound tourism is expected to decline sharply,
exports of transport equipment by region, exports to the United States, which account due to a decline in the number of tourists visiting Japan as a result of the effects of
for approximately 30% of the total, declined significantly against the backdrop of a the novel coronavirus. At the end of January, the Chinese government banned group
shift toward the local production of finished vehicles which had previously been trips abroad, and the governments of other countries have also requested that their
exported from Japan. Exports to Asia, excluding China, also remained sluggish, citizens refrain from traveling abroad. Consequently, a number of people have
reflecting stagnant sales in the local markets refrained from visiting Japan. Furthermore, the Japanese government took measures
At present, the expansion of the impact of the novel coronavirus has been weighing including the suspension of visas for tourists from China and South Korea in March. If
on the global economy. A temporary decline in exports of goods as a whole is the number of visitors from China, Hong Kong and South Korea were to drop by 90%
inevitable. and the number of visitors from other countries and regions was halved, consumption
◆ Demand Related to Inbound Tourism Continued to Be Sluggish related to inbound tourism would fall by 70%.
The number of tourists that visited Japan in January 2020 increased by 1.4% from
Figure 4-1 Real Exports by Item Figure 4-2 Real Exports of Transport Figure 4-3 Receipt in Travel in
All items (right scale) (10,000 persons) (100 million yen)
(CY2015 US The number of foreign v isitors
Electronic parts and dev ices
(CY2017 (CY2017 =100) China + HK 350 to Japan (left scale) 5,000
＝100) Capital goods ＝100) 150 Asia ex cluding China + HK Credit (receipt) in trav el in balance
110 Transport equipment 115 of pay ments (inbound consumption,
Others 4,500
140 right scale)
300
105
110 4,000
130
100
105 250 3,500
120
95
3,000
100 110
90 200
2,500
95 100
85
90 150 2,000
80 90 2015 16 17 18 19 20 2016 17 18 19 20
2015 16 17 18 19 20 (Y/M) (Y/M)
(Y/M)
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of The Ministry of Finance, The Bank of Japan. of The Ministry of Finance, Japan National
of The Ministry of Finance. Note: Figures in the angled brackets show the shares in total Tourism Organization (JNTO).
Note: Figures in the angled brackets show the shares in total nominal exports of transport equipment in CY2019.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy April 2020
nominal exports in CY2019.
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-4-As Corporate Profits Diminish, Business Sentiment Has Become More Cautious Towards Capital Investment
◆ Corporate Profits Have Diminished inbound tourism, and a decrease in exports to China in line with the spread of the
Corporate earnings have declined. According to the Financial Statement Statistics novel coronavirus.
of Corporations by Industry quarterly report, sales value for the October to December ◆ Business Fixed Investment Has Declined
2019 period declined for the fourth consecutive quarter, down 2.9% from the previous Capital investments for the October to December 2019 period decreased both in
quarter. Sales value both in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors. While demand for investments in
diminished due to a reactionary decline following the rush in demand prior to the rationalization and labor saving driven by labor shortages remained strong, there has
consumption tax rate hike and the impact of large-scale typhoons, among other been a reactionary decline following the rush in demand prior to the consumption tax
factors. Current profits declined for the third straight quarter, down 2.5% from the rate hike, and companies have taken moves to reduce capital investments due to the
previous quarter. While current profits in the manufacturing sector fell sharply due to deterioration in corporate earnings.
a decline in sales, down 8.6% from the previous quarter, current profits in the In the future, business sentiment is expected to become increasingly cautious as
nonmanufacturing sector remained virtually flat thanks to the effects of cost reduction companies postpone capital investments against the backdrop of concerns over
efforts, including labor saving. corporate earnings and postponement of business negotiations following the spread
Corporate profits for the January to March 2020 period are expected to fall further of the novel coronavirus.
owning to the cooling of domestic consumption, the decline in demand related to
Figure 5-1 Sales Value of Japanese Figure 5-2 Current Profits of Japanese Figure 5-3 Business Fixed Investment of
Corporations by Type Corporations by Type Japanese Corporations by Type
(Trillion yen)
(CY2010 = 100) (Trillion yen)
Manufacturing Manufacturing
120 16 9
Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing
14 8
115
Nonmanufacturing 12
110 7
10
105 8 6
100 6 5
4
95 4
2
3
90 0
▲2 2
85 2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
(Y/Q)
▲4
80 2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data
2008 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 (Y/Q)
(Y/Q) of The Ministry of Finance.
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data Note: 1. All industries except for financial services and insurance.
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data
of The Ministry of Finance. 2. Excluding software investment.
of The Ministry of Finance.
Note: All industries except for financial services and insurance.
Note: All industries except for financial services and insurance. Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy April 2020
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-5-The Spread of the Novel Coronavirus Has Become a Downside Risk for Income
◆ The Income Situation Has Continued to Improve ◆ The Spread of the Novel Coronavirus Becomes a Serious Threat
While the pace of growth in the number of workers peaked out in 2018, the rising Looking ahead, however, a temporary decline in income is inevitable due to the
trend has continued with the number of workers increasing by around 600,000 year- outbreak of the novel coronavirus. The impact on part-time workers and day laborers
on-year. In the nonmanufacturing sector, where labor shortages are pronounced, the is particularly serious. Income is expected to plunge temporarily due to the
expansion of employment has been driven by the medical and welfare industries. In suspension of attendance at work and a decrease in working hours, reflecting shorter
the manufacturing sector, employment of specialists such as IT engineers has business hours and closures of commercial facilities and restaurants as well as the
increased. suspension of public works projects. Regular employees will also see their overtime
Meanwhile, on the wages front, nominal wages have remained on a rising trend. pay decline due to a decrease in overtime hours. It is also possible that a
Excluding the effects of sample changes, the total sum of cash earnings of full-time deterioration in corporate earnings could adversely affect the wage negotiations this
workers in December 2019 rose 1.0% from the previous year. Scheduled salaries spring.
remain on a rising trend, which has contributed to pushing up nominal wages.
Figure 6-1 Number of Employees by Type Figure 6-2 Total Cash Earnings of Figure 6-3 Average Rate of Wage Rises
Full-time Workers Resulting from Wage Negotiations
Each Spring
(10,000 The av erage rate of w age rises from wage negotiations each spring,
Scheduled salaries w hich was tallied up by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
workers) Manufacturing (％)
Nonmanufacturing Ov ertime pay The av erage rate of w age rises from wage negotiations each spring,
140 (％) w hich was forecast by the Institute of Labor Administration
Total 3.5
Special salaries (bonuses)
The rate of rise in pay for scheduled hours worked by full-time
120 3.0
3.0 Total cash earnings employ ees (year-on-year % change)
100 2.5 2.5
80 2.0 2.0
60 1.5 1.5
40 1.0
1.0
20 0.5
0.5
0 0.0
0.0
▲ 20 ▲0.5
▲ 0.5
▲ 40 ▲1.0 2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2013 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2016 17 18 19 (FY)
(Y/Q) (Y/M)
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data of
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data of
The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japanese
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. Trade Union Confederation, The Institute of Labor
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Note: The effects of the sample changes in January 2018 and Administration.
Note: The figure in Q1 2020 is for January 2020. January 2019 were adjusted.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy April 2020
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-6-Rebound of Private Consumption Expenditure Will Be Delayed
◆ The Spread of the Novel Coronavirus Will Weigh on Consumption ◆ Housing Investment Has Seen a Decline
The consumption activity index in January rose for the third consecutive month, Housing starts in January fell 4.6% from the previous month, down for the first time
following a plunge immediately after the consumption tax rate hike. The burden of the in two months. Demand for housing for owner-occupied and subdivision housing
tax hike on households appears to be gradually easing. remained on a declining trend in reaction to a surge in demand prior to the
However, given the expansion of the effects of the novel coronavirus in Japan, a consumption tax hike, and housing starts for rental housing were sluggish, reflecting
significant decline in private consumption expenditure is inevitable in the foreseeable stricter screening for apartment loans by financial institutions.
future, mainly for service consumption such as leisure. In fact, according to the As for future prospects, the decline in the number of owner-occupied and
Economy Watchers Survey in February, the DI for current economic conditions subdivision detached housing is expected to come to a halt once the effects of the
related to household activity went down to 28.2, the lowest level since April 2011. In consumption tax rate hike have run their full course. However, housing starts are
addition to a series of voluntary restraints on sports-related events, a growing unlikely to recover strongly on the whole as housing starts for rental housing are
number of people are refraining from going out. Unless the expansion of the number expected to remain sluggish due to financial institutions’ cautious attitudes toward
of people infected with the coronavirus comes to a halt, it is unlikely that personal real estate loans.
consumption expenditure will fully recover.
Figure 7-1 Consumption Activity Index Figure 7-2 Economy Watchers Survey Figure 7-3 Housing Starts by Type
(10,000 houses)
(CY2011＝100)
(Points) 100 65
112
55 60
95
110 55
50 Total housing starts (10,000
90
houses)
(left scale) 50
108 45 85
Rental housing (right scale) 45
106 40 80 40
104 35 35
75 Ow ner-occupied housing (right scale)
30
102 30 70
25
100 25 65
20
Subdiv ision housing (right scale)
20 60 15
98 2017 18 19 20
2015 16 17 18 19 20 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
(Y/M) (Y/M)
(Y/M)
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport.
of The Bank of Japan. of The Cabinet Office.
.
Note: Travel balance in balance of payments was adjusted. Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy April 2020
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-7-Prospects for Japan's Economy - Projected Real GDP Change; -0.0% in FY2019 and 0.2% in FY2020
◆ The Japanese Economy Will Likely Have a Significant Downswing Due end of April. If the outbreak comes to an end, demand related to inbound tourism and
to the Expansion of the Effects of Novel Coronavirus domestic household consumption is expected to pick up. Corporate capital
investment, which has been postponed, is also expected to start moving again,
(1) According to the Second Preliminary Quarterly Estimates of the GDP (2nd QE), resulting in higher economic growth. However, since it will take time to completely
Japan’s real GDP for the October to December 2019 period was revised downward eliminate the adverse effects on demand related to inbound tourism and domestic
to –7.1% on an annualized quarter-on-quarter change basis (down 1.8% from the consumption activity, economic activity is expected to return to normal around mid-
preceding quarter) from the First Preliminary Quarterly Estimates of GDP (1st QE) (– year at the earliest.
6.3% on an annualized quarter-on-quarter change basis; down 1.6% from the
preceding quarter) against the backdrop of a downswing in capital investment, public (4) As a result of the above, Japan’s economic growth for FY2019 and FY2020 are
investment and inventory investment. It has become more apparent that the forecast to be –0.0% and +0.2%, respectively, with the growth rate hovering around
Japanese economy has declined following the consumption tax rate hike. 0% in both years. If the coronavirus pandemic lasts longer and becomes more
serious, it could lead to more corporate bankruptcies in the retail, service and
(2) In the revised prospects, the growth forecast has been revised downward manufacturing sectors, where demand is falling sharply, and the Japanese economy
significantly due to the increase in the impact of the novel coronavirus, which could see negative growth for two straight years.
exceeded initial forecasts. First of all, there is a high possibility that the Japanese
economy could see negative growth for two consecutive quarters in the January to
March 2020 period. Exports dropped sharply against the backdrop of falling demand ◆ The Pace of Year-on-year Rise in the Core CPI Will Likely Slow for the
related to inbound tourism, mainly from Chinese tourists, and a downturn in the Asian Time Being
economy.
Furthermore, domestic household consumption has declined significantly due to (5) The rate of year-on-year increase in the core consumer price index (CPI) which
the increase in the number of people who have been infected with the coronavirus in excludes fresh food rose slightly in January from the previous month. This was
Japan, which will likely result in negative growth in personal consumption for two mainly because the pace of the fall in energy prices slowed due to the rise in the
consecutive quarters. Companies are also expected to become more cautious about price of crude oil toward the end of last year.
capital spending amid uncertainty over their business performance. As for future prospects, reflecting weaker upward pressure from the supply-
demand side against the backdrop of sluggish economy as a result of the spread of
(3) The future trend of the economy will depend on the spread of the novel the novel coronavirus, the pace of year-on-year increase in the core CPI is expected
coronavirus. While it is difficult to predict when the outbreak of the novel coronavirus to temporarily slow to around +0% (excluding the impact of the consumption tax rate
will come to an end, the government has been urging people to refrain from non- hike and the provision of free child education and nursery care).
urgent, unnecessary outings, and at this moment, it is predicted that the increase in
the number of people infected with the coronavirus in Japan will come to a halt by the
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy April 2020
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-8-Figure 9 Projections for GDP Growth and Main Indicators of Japan ( as of March 9, 2020 )
(% changes from the
(seasonally adjusted, annualised % changes from the previous quarter) previous fiscal year)
CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY2022
FY2019 FY2020 FY2021
7～9 10～12 1～3 4～6 7～9 10～12 1～3 4～6 7～9 10～12 1～3
(Actual) (Actual) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection)
Real ＧＤＰ 0.1 ▲ 7.1 ▲ 2.7 1.2 5.8 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.7 ▲ 0.0 0.2 1.1
Private Consumption Expenditure 1.8 ▲ 10.6 ▲ 2.0 0.8 5.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 ▲ 0.5 ▲ 0.2 1.2
Housing Investment 5.0 ▲ 9.7 ▲ 2.3 ▲ 1.2 ▲ 0.6 0.8 1.4 0.5 ▲ 1.6 ▲ 0.4 0.0 1.3 ▲ 1.6 0.1
Business Fixed Investment 0.9 ▲ 17.3 1.9 ▲ 1.0 7.9 3.8 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 ▲ 0.7 0.0 2.3
Private Inventories (percentage points contribution) (▲ 1.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.1) (▲ 0.2) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) (▲ 0.1) (▲ 0.1) ( 0.0)
Government Consumption Expenditure 3.0 0.9 0.2 2.4 3.6 ▲ 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.5 1.5 0.7
Public Investment 4.5 2.8 ▲ 0.6 3.3 1.8 6.4 2.1 ▲ 1.9 ▲ 3.4 0.0 0.3 3.5 2.7 0.0
Net Exports (percentage points contribution) (▲ 1.0) ( 1.9) (▲ 1.9) ( 0.4) ( 0.6) (▲ 0.2) ( 0.1) (▲ 0.0) (▲ 0.0) (▲ 0.0) (▲ 0.0) (▲ 0.3) (▲ 0.0) (▲ 0.0)
Exports of Goods and Services ▲ 2.8 ▲ 0.3 ▲ 8.5 0.2 9.4 ▲ 0.4 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 ▲ 1.9 ▲ 0.1 2.1
Imports of Goods and Services 2.8 ▲ 10.2 2.5 ▲ 2.1 5.9 1.0 1.4 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.9 ▲ 0.4 0.1 2.1
(Ref.) Domestic Private Demand (percentage points contribution) ( 0.4) (▲ 9.5) (▲ 0.8) ( 0.1) ( 4.4) ( 1.4) ( 1.1) ( 0.8) ( 0.5) ( 0.5) ( 0.7) (▲ 0.4) (▲ 0.2) ( 1.0)
(Ref.) Public Demand (percentage points contribution) ( 0.8) ( 0.3) ( 0.0) ( 0.7) ( 0.8) ( 0.0) ( 0.4) ( 0.0) (▲ 0.1) ( 0.1) ( 0.1) ( 0.7) ( 0.5) ( 0.1)
(% changes from the
(% changes from the same quarter of the previous year) previous fiscal year)
Nominal ＧＤＰ 2.3 0.5 ▲ 1.0 ▲ 1.0 ▲ 0.1 1.6 2.7 2.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.4
GDP deflator 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3
Consumer Price Index (excluding fresh food) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7
(excluding fresh food, consumption tax, education free of charge) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.7
Unemployment Rate (％) 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2
Exchange Rates (JY/US$) 107 109 107 101 103 104 105 105 105 105 105 108 103 105
Import Price of Crude Oil (US$/barrel) 66 66 65 59 65 67 68 68 68 68 68 67 65 68
Source: The Cabinet Office; The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; The Ministry of Finance.
The projection figures are based on those of The Japan Research Institute, Ltd.
Note : "▲" indicates minus.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy April 2020
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
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