Na#onal and Global Challenges
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Na#onal
and
Global
Challenges
Council
Planning
Conference,
Launceston
University
of
Tasmania,
20-‐21
April
2012
Simon
Marginson
Centre
for
the
Study
of
Higher
EducaDon
University
of
Melbourne,
Australia
NaDonal and Global Challenges 1. Australia's global compeDDveness in research 2. Emerging China and East Asia 3. The global student market 4. The Base Funding Review 5. The Demand Driven System 6. Other policy issues 7. The next federal elecDon 8. AXer the elecDon
Within Tasmania higher educaDon is a services industry …
… beyond Tasmania it is a naDonal and global compeDDon
What determines brand value in that compe##on?
The Three ‘R’s’ …..
Research, Research, and Research!!!
Australian
universiDes
in
Shanghai
JTU
top
500,
2009
and
2011
2009
RANKING
(17)
2011
RANKING
(19)
top
50
nil
nil
51-‐100
Australian
NaDonal
(59eq),
Melbourne
(60),
Australian
NaDonal
Melbourne
(75),
Sydney
(94)
(70),
Queensland
(86),
Sydney
(96)
101-‐150
Queensland,
Western
Australia
Western
Australia
151-‐200
New
South
Wales
Monash,
New
South
Wales
201-‐300
Adelaide,
Macquarie,
Monash
Adelaide,
Macquarie
301-‐400
Flinders,
Newcastle,
Tasmania,
Flinders,
James
Cook,
Newcastle,
Wollongong
Tasmania
401-‐500
CurDn,
James
Cook,
La
Trobe,
CurDn,
Griffith,
La
Trobe,
Swinburne,
Swinburne
Technology
Sydney,
Wollongong
SJTU
top
100
by
field,
Australia,
2011
PHYSICAL
SCIENCES/
MATHS
ANU
47
ENGINEERING
Melbourne
52-‐75
NSW
52-‐75
Queensland
52-‐75
Monash
76-‐100
Sydney
76-‐100
LIFE
SCIENCES
WA
33
ANU
42
Melbourne
44
Queensland
50
Sydney
76-‐100
MEDICINE
Melbourne
36
Queensland
51-‐75
WA
51-‐75
SOCIAL
SCIENCES
ANU
76-‐100
SJTU
top
100
schools,
all
naDons,
2011
PHYSICAL
ENGINEERING
LIFE
SCIENCES
MEDICINE
SOCIAL
TOTAL
SCIENCES
SCIENCES
United
States
52
46
57
54
71
280
United
Kingdom
8
6
10
11
8
43
Canada
2
4
4
5
8
23
Germany
8
1
7
5
0
21
Netherlands
2
3
4
4
5
18
Japan
7
5
3
2
0
17
Australia
1
5
5
3
1
15
China
0
10
0
0
1
11
France
6
1
1
3
0
11
Switzerland
3
2
3
2
1
11
Sweden
1
3
2
3
0
9
Israel
4
2
0
0
2
8
Belgium
0
2
3
2
0
7
Denmark
1
1
1
1
2
6
Taiwan
China
1
3
0
0
1
4
Singapore
0
2
0
1
0
3
South
Korea
1
2
0
0
0
3
others
1
1
1
3
1
7
Australia
in
the
2011-‐2012
Leiden
top
500
University
Total
2005-‐09
World
Propor#on
of
World
publica#ons
rank
papers
in
top
10%
rank
ANU
5551
151
12.9
114
Melbourne
9724
50
11.9
163
Queensland
9088
54
11.8
170
Macquarie
1917
465
11.3
202
Wollongong
2120
445
10.8
233
New
South
Wales
7263
82
10.6
250
Monash
6797
106
10.4
261
Sydney
10,155
45
10.1
290
Western
Australia
5143
168
9.9
306
Adelaide
4055
234
9.6
314
QUT
2083
448
8.6
367
Tasmania
1802
483
8.3
382
Newcastle
2203
434
8.1
378
Griffith
2036
454
7.6
412
Australia is sDll in the research game • Australia produced 18,923 papers in 2009 (2.4% of the world total), and was 12th naDon on this indicator. Australian output has grown by 3% per annum since 1991 • We are stronger in research quanDty than quality—12th on quanDty but only 18th in the world on citaDon rates • On the basis of citaDon rates Australia’s primary areas of global strength in research are agriculture, plant and animal science, and clinical medicine. Ecology and geo-‐science also perform well in places. On citaDon rate CSIRO is in the top ten research insDtutes in the world in three research fields. • A key challenge is how we relate to emerging Asia in research
China
will
soon
have
the
largest
economy:
world
GDP
2030
Maddison
2007
for
OECD
Top
ten
school
systems
OECD
PISA
2009
(mean
student
scores,
Confucian
heritage
educaDon
systems
in
red)
Reading
Mathema#cs
Science
Shanghai
China
556
Shanghai
China
600
Shanghai
China
575
South
Korea
539
Singapore
562
Finland
554
Finland
536
Hong
Kong
555
Hong
Kong
549
Hong
Kong
533
South
Korea
546
Singapore
542
Singapore
526
Taiwan
China
543
Japan
539
Canada
524
Finland
541
South
Korea
538
New
Zealand
521
Liechtenstein
536
New
Zealand
532
Japan
520
Switzerland
534
Canada
529
Australia
515
Japan
529
Estonia
528
Netherlands
508
Canada
527
Australia
527
Australia
15th
514
UK
equal
25th
424
UK
28th
492
UK
16th
514
USA
equal
15th
500
USA
equal
31st
487
USA
23rd
502
R&D
investment
by
world
region
2009
Region
Investment
in
R&D
(US
Na#onal
Science
Founda#on
data)
North
America
$433
billion
(34%
of
world
total)
Europe
$319
billion
(25%)
East,
SE
and
South
Asia
$402
billion
(32%)
R&D
as
a
proporDon
of
GDP,
2008/9
US
NaDonal
Science
FoundaDon
Some
large
Asia
Pacific
research
universiDes
University
/
na#on
Number
of
science
Propor#on
(%)
of
papers
2005-‐2009
papers
in
top
10%
(Leiden
U
data)
in
field
by
cita#on
U
Tokyo
JAPAN
18,382
10.2
Kyoto
U
JAPAN
14,941
9.5
Seoul
NaDonal
U
SOUTH
KOREA
13,052
8.9
NaDonal
U
Singapore
SINGAPORE
11,838
13.9
Tsinghua
U
CHINA
11,478
10.8
Peking
U
CHINA
9153
10.4
Fudan
U
CHINA
7061
11.1
NaDonal
Taiwan
U
TAIWAN
11,302
8.9
U
Sydney
AUSTRALIA
10,155
10.1
U
Melbourne
AUSTRALIA
9724
11.9
U
Queensland
AUSTRALIA
9088
11.8
U
New
South
Wales
AUSTRALIA
7263
10.6
Research
papers
1995
&
2009
US
NaDonal
Science
FoundaDon
Research
papers
per
year,
1995-‐2009
US
NaDonal
Science
FoundaDon
Shanghai
JTU
top
500
universiDes
China
2005
&
2011
2005
2011
China
mainland
8
23
Hong
Kong
SAR
5
5
Taiwan
China
5
7
Total
18
35
Here comes China’s research • Between 1991 and 2009 China’s spending on R&D moved from 5% to 40% of the level of the United States, reaching $154.1 billion in 2009 • From 1999-‐2009 the number of papers from China grew by a staggering 17% a year to reach 74,019, 9.4% of the world total • There are quality issues. China published 7.5% of world science papers in 2006-‐2008, but just 3.6% of the top 1 per cent, those with at least 20 citaDons by 2010. • Yet in Engineering China published 12.5% of all papers and 12.3% of top papers. China is also excepDonally strong in research in Chemistry. It is much weaker in Medicine
Yet
rapid
improvement
in
China
World
share
of
highly
cited
papers,
Chemistry,
2000
&
2010
US
NaDonal
Science
FoundaDon
share
of
top
1%
USA
China
Japan
papers
in
Chemistry
2000
48.6%
0.6%
9.3%
2010
34.2%
10.6%
6.7%
index
of
highly
USA
China
Japan
cited
papers
(1.0
=
expected)
2000
2.4
0.2
0.8
2010
2.0
0.7
0.8
Ken Henry, Former Secretary to the Treasury, Chair of the Australia in the Asian Century Taskforce
The
Henry
White
Paper
will
consider:
• the
current
and
likely
future
course
of
economic,
poliDcal
and
strategic
change
in
Asia,
encompassing
China,
India,
the
key
ASEAN
countries
as
well
as
Japan
and
the
Republic
of
Korea;
• the
domesDc
economic
and
social
opportuniDes
and
challenges
of
the
Asian
Century
for
Australia;
• opportuniDes
for
a
significant
deepening
of
our
engagement
with
Asia
across
the
board,
including
in
the
economy,
science
and
technology
collaboraDon,
clean
energy,
educaDon,
business-‐to-‐business
and
people-‐to-‐people
links
and
culture;
• the
poliDcal
and
strategic
implicaDons
of
the
Asian
Century
for
Australia;
and
• the
role
of
effecDve
economic
and
poliDcal
regional
and
global
cooperaDon
Denise
Bradley,
chair
of
2008
review
of
higher
educaDon,
with
(now)
Prime
Minister
Gillard:
recommended
broader
approach
to
internaDonalizaDon
Jane
Lomax-‐Smith,
chair
of
the
2011
Base
Funding
Review:
recommended
increase
in
funding
of
teaching
of
domesDc
students
to
underpin
a
more
internaDonally
effecDve
higher
educaDon
system
Foreign
terDary
students
in
2008:
world
market
shares
InternaDonal educaDon 2009-‐2011 In 2009 there were 5006 interna#onal students at the University of Tasmania (23.2% of all students) including 2884 onshore students
EducaDon
exports,
$s
billion
Australian
Bureau
of
StaDsDcs,
Balance
of
Payments
2011
(5302.0)
and
InternaDonal
Trade
in
Goods
and
Services
(5368.0)
Michael
Knight
InternaDonal student market • The highpoint: Australia had a 7% market share in 2009 and 631,000 internaDonal students in all sectors. • Offshore visa granted in China in 2011-‐12 were 21% less than 2010-‐11. (Chinese students entering USA rose 23% in 2011). ApplicaDons for Australia from China in December quarter fell 11% compared to same period in 2010. ApplicaDons were also well down from Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam • ImplementaDon of Knight recommendaDons is gradual and the high Australian dollar delays recovery • New compliance regime requires universiDes to demonstrate programs for improvement of English. There may be penalDes in risk level if too many graduates apply for residency
University
of
Tasmania
and
the
rankings
Ranking
Main
Prominence
Social
science
U
Tasmania
emphasis
of
ranking
credibility
of
posi#on
ranking
Times
Higher
GENERAL
general
high
low
301-‐350
Times
Higher
REPUTATION
reputaDon
high
low
301-‐350
QS
general
high
rock
bosom
343
Shanghai
Jiao
Tong
Univ
research
high
good
301-‐400
Leiden
PAPER
QUANTITY
research
low
excellent
483
Leiden
TOP
10%
PAPERS
research
low
excellent
382
SCIMago
PAPER
QUANTITY
research
low
excellent
686
(total
incl
non
unis)
SCIMago
PAPER
IMPACT
research
low
excellent
equal
17th
of
Aust
unis
(impact
=
1.2)
The
Base
Funding
Review’s
Jane
Lomax-‐Smith:
‘…
as
a
naDon
we
need
to
decide
whether
we
are
saDsfied
with
current
levels
of
quality
in
our
educaDon
sector
and
with
our
current
standing
relaDve
to
the
university
systems
of
comparable
overseas
countries’
–
Base
Funding
Review
report
p.
8
Base Funding Review report • Data show Australian total funding is just above the OECD average but well below that of comparator Canada • Under-‐funded disciplines – business cluster, medicine, denDstry, agriculture, vet, visual and performing arts. Law and humaniDes may also be under-‐funded. None are over-‐funded • 6-‐10% of base funding should support research capacity • Messy current fee system, student contribuDons 19-‐84% • Recommends 60/40 (public/private) split of costs in all disciplines, staggered implementaDon. • RaDonale for public funding not strong enough? • Recommends flagship programs at higher funding rate – up to 50% above base funding covering 5% of enrolments
The Demand Driven System • ApplicaDons were up 4% overall in 2012 and enrolments are up 4-‐5% overall – but great variaDon between insDtuDons • Much associated growth occurred in 2010 and 2011 • Some insDtuDons are taking the opportunity to build market share and secure economies of scale, others find the funding rate too low. • AssumpDon that growth would swing from internaDonal to domesDc students may be premature given funding rate • The fiscal environment suggests cap will return. Forward esDmates predict $1.5 billion funding increase by 2014-‐15 • Price deregulaDon (with a cap? or not?) could only follow a regime change
Catering for the new students • EducaDonal needs of new layer of parDcipaDng students. This was highlighted also by Lomax-‐Smith • Burdens fals unevenly on insDtuDons. University of Tasmania already has 24.9% students in low SES category (2010) based on Census District – compare with 17.8% in naDon as a whole • University of Tasmania also has 7.6% students with a disability compared to 4.5% in naDon
Other issues • TEQSA: PotenDally more intervenDonist federal regime with Ministerial power to specify standards, periodic renewal of self-‐accrediDng power (no longer unqualified). • Emerging cost of HELP system (Grasan InsDtute report) including non collecDon from Australian diaspora offshore • Student saDsfacDon is rising but only just over half of respondents express strong levels of saDsfacDon • Low levels of engagement with teachers by comparison with United States (student-‐staff raDo is 20 compared to 15) • High levels of students working (three quarters of full-‐Dme students). Lack of fit between teaching methods and students’ communicaDve cultures • Employability of graduates issues may be a sleeper
Other issues 2 • 67,000 casuals (53% academic workforce). Can this go on? • Class sizes and student-‐staff raDos an issue but depends on response to Base Funding Report • Teaching/research nexus in melDng pot? Nexus under pressure. One third of FT academic workforce is research only: poor fit between research funding and student numbers. More nuanced/ tailored academic job descripDons on way? • 2012 ERA collecDon and plan to distribute $220 million in ‘Research Excellence IniDaDve’ funding. Arguably, Uni Tas has many ERA ‘3’s’ and ‘4’s’ but not enough ‘5’s’ • Is performance funding for teaching quality and student learning achievement now a dead issue? OECD AHELO collecDon may revive comparisons of learning / teaching
The 2013 federal elecDon
99% likely government: The CoaliDon
Bres Mason
Julie Bishop
Christopher Pyne
Tony Abbos
The Greens in federal parliament (includings one reDring member)
Andrew Robb
Federal
government
masers:
Immediate
post-‐elec#on
issues
• Possibility
of
severe
funding
cut
in
base
rate
of
subsidies
• Would
HECS-‐HELP
student
contribuDons
rise?
• Future
of
Base
Funding
Report
recommendaDons,
indexaDon
of
government
grants,
2009
phase-‐in
of
full
research
funding?
• Would
the
cap
come
back
on
for
government
funded
enrolments?
• Would
there
be
parDal
deregulaDon
of
fees
at
an
early
stage?
• Would
the
equity
targets
and
their
funding
survive
the
change
of
government?
Federal
government
masers:
Longer
term
issues
• Remaking
of
domesDc
fee
charging
system.
Goes
to
potenDal
for
variaDons
of
student
contribuDon.
If
there
is
upwards
variaDon
in
student
charges,
would
these
charges
be
(1)
capped
at
some
level?
(2)
uncapped
but
capped
in
terms
of
the
part
of
the
fee
subject
to
government
supported
income
conDngent
arrangements,
with
a
commercial
fee
component
on
top?
(3)
uncapped
and
fully
supported
by
HECS-‐HELP?
• Research
funding
and
policy
in
the
compeDDve
global
seyng
• Dumping
of
One-‐Size-‐Fits-‐All?
Formalised
sector
groupings
of
insDtuDons
by
mission
–
an
Australian
classificaDon
system?
http://www.cshe.unimelb.edu.au/people/staff_pages/Marginson/Marginson.html
Cambridge UP,
Cambridge, May 2010
Springer, Dordrecht,
Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, September 2011
Routledge, New York,
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