Ontario Election 2014 Week Five: Election Day Preview
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Ontario Election 2014
Week Five: Election Day Preview
5 Things You Need to Know
1. The NDP and Liberals both said they would not work with Tim Hudak as Premier, leaving the
potential for legislative gridlock depending on tomorrow’s outcome. Interestingly, neither the NDP
nor the Liberals have closed the door to forming a coalition of their own, which could occur in the
event of a slim PC minority government.
2. On this final day of campaigning, the leaders are targeting swing ridings hoping to squeeze out as
many votes as possible in what may be the closest election in Ontario's history. Kathleen Wynne will
spend most of Wednesday in Toronto. Tim Hudak will start in Mississauga and move west, making
a stop in Kitchener-Waterloo before his final stop in Niagara Falls. Andrea Horwath is also starting
the day in Toronto and moving east, stopping in Oshawa, Belleville and Kingston.
3. Ontario’s major newspapers revealed the endorsements of their editorial boards this week. Of
note, Tim Hudak and the PCs snagged the endorsement of the Globe and Mail, the National Post
and the Toronto Sun, while Wynne and the Liberals were endorsed by the Toronto Star.
4. You will be able to watch the hockey game tonight without being bombarded by party
advertisements all game. As of midnight last night, Elections Ontario instituted a ban on party
advertising.
5. Finally, and most importantly, get out and vote tomorrow. Polls will be open from 9 a.m to 9
p.m. You can find all of the information on where and how to vote here.
Final Party Outlooks
KEY POINTS
Little Impact from Debate : While Wynne
battled attacks from the left and right during the
debate, there seemed to be minimal fallout
Kathleen Wynne continued her tour this from the debate in the world of polling. While
week, visiting vote-rich Southwestern Ontario some were critical of her debate performance,
as well as along the 401 corridor to Kingston, she did earn the endorsement of the Toronto
Trenton and Pickering. On the eve of the Star, which may be helpful in recruiting
progressives in Toronto to the Liberal camp.
vote, she will spend the majority of her time in
Appealing to Progressives: Wynne and her
Toronto, in ridings currently held by the NDP. candidates have been driving the message that
As the campaign draws to a close, Liberals a vote for the NDP is essentially a vote for
will be looking to motivate undecided Hudak. While this type of messaging can be
progressives and their base that the threat of risky, it is more than likely that in certain key
a PC government – and the suggested cuts ridings, voters will be more willing to vote
that would follow – are real, and that it is too strategically to prevent a PC government.
important to sit this election out. It appears Getting Schooled: You may notice that
Wynne is spending more time in classrooms
the Liberals are looking to the left to woo
than anywhere else during the campaign.
voters as opposed to the right, which is There is good reason for that-education and
making for some interesting races in the investment in students is a key pillar in the
Metro Toronto and Southwestern Ontario Liberal record and platform. The Liberals are
ridings. The Liberals are hoping the message hoping threats of larger classroom sizes, fewer
of public sector and frontline cuts is fearful student aides and an overall reduction in
enough to motivate the electorate back to the spending is enough to drive Ontarians to the
polls.
Liberal camp on June 12th.
KEY POINTS
Little Impact from Debate / Newspaper
Coming off of what was considered a Endorsements: While Hudak is considered to
successful performance at the Ontario have performed well in the debate, it has had
Leaders Debate, Tim Hudak spent the final little to no obvious impact on his stance in the
week of the campaign criss-crossing the polls, which still shows a dead heat with the
province to visit a number of ridings that are Liberals. Same goes for newspapers – while ¾
provincial papers backed Hudak, this hasn’t had
considered in play for the PCs. While the
an impact on public opinion.
Greater Toronto Area has primarily served Keeping the Train on the Track: Hudak had to
as the home base for Hudak, he has been clarify his stance on the LRT expansion in
spending a fair bit of time in areas like Brant, Ottawa, after he was initially quoted as saying
Waterloo, and Ottawa. A visit to Ottawa may the project is too expensive for the province to
have been necessary, as Hudak had to support.
answer questions on whether or not a PC Mobilizing the Troops: The Tories have been
battling an air war with several public sector
government would support the expansion of
unions throughout the campaign. Will the unions
LRT in the city (they will, but not until the be able to mobilize on the ground to rally against
budget is balanced). Hudak also secured Hudak? The Tories are hopeful their voters are
endorsements from the Globe and Mail, more motivated to put him in power than the
National Post, Ottawa Citizen and Toronto others are to keep him out of it.
Sun, but it’s had no impact on public opinion surveys, which show the Tories and the Liberals tied.
On the eve of the campaign, Hudak will be in four different ridings – three of which are currently held
by the Liberals. It will now be up to the Tory troops on the ground to pull out their vote on Thursday.
KEY POINTS
Wind in their sails?: In an election that has
seen little movement in the polls, Andrea
Horwath seemed to enjoy a bump in support
following the debate last week. The NDP is
Andrea Horwath and the Ontario New hoping to carry this momentum straight to the
Democrats have been enjoying a bit of a ballot box, which they’re quick to say is the
bump since last week’s Ontario Leaders only poll that matters.
Debate. Reports from the Leader’s Tour Name dropping: Kathleen Wynne made the
misstep of invoking the names of former NDP
suggest that the team on the road is feeling Leaders Jack Layton, Ed Broadbent and
the momentum as they proceed with the Stephen Lewis in the final week of the
traditional “Whistle-Stop” tour through target campaign. Mr. Broadbent was quick to put out
ridings as the campaign comes to a a refuting statement, bluntly declaring that
close. Yesterday, Horwarth’s tour hit a Kathleen Wynne had “gone beyond the pale.”
number of ridings with close races in West of GOTV: Not unlike the other parties, the NDP
Toronto, trying to show that the ONDP has will have a big challenge in getting their
supporters to the polls tomorrow. It is crucial
the momentum in Southwestern Ontario –
for the NDP to run strong GOTV (Get Out The
And the pictures from this week’s rallies don’t Vote) operations, as they are in a number of
betray the notion that things, at least in that very close races in both incumbent and non-
area of the province, might be going better incumbent ridings.
than portrayed in the big media markets. The battle of the parties’ end-game advertising blitzes and
op-eds will now play out at the polls, with Andrea Horwath hoping that her “Don’t let them tell you it
can’t be done” message resonates with voters. Of course, this message is familiar to us from the
2011 Federal Election in which NDP Leader Jack Layton reminded voters that they didn’t have to
choose between a “Red Door” and a “Blue Door.” It’s been a tough campaign for Ms. Horwath, who
will no doubt be holding her breath as the results come in tomorrow night.
5 Ridings to Watch on Election Night
If there’s been one consistency in the campaign, it is that things are far too close to call. It is likely
that the next government will be decided by only a few ridings – meaning a lot of eyes will be glued
to television screens tomorrow night.
As the votes come in, which ridings should you keep an eye on to get a sense of where the province
is headed? What are the biggest battles to look out for? Summa has put together a shortlist:
Ottawa West-Nepean
o Who holds it now: Long-time Liberal MPP and Minister of Energy Bob Chiarelli
o Who’s it in play for: Progressive Conservative candidate and former journalist
Randall Denley
o Why does it matter: Provincially, Ottawa is a Liberal stronghold. Chiarelli is a well-
known MPP, but changing demographics in the area have the Tories thinking it is in
play. They already hold neighbouring riding Nepean Carleton with MPP Lisa
MacLeod, and federal Cabinet Minister John Baird serves currently serves as the MP
for Ottawa West-Nepean.
Trinity-Spadina
o Who holds it now: NDP MPP Rosario Marchese, who’s held the seat since 1999.
o Who’s it in play for: Liberal candidate and former Queen’s Park staffer Han Dong
o Why does it matter: There are three elections happening right now in Trinity
Spadina, including a federal by-election and the Toronto municipal campaign. The
NDP should hold this seat, but the Liberals are feeling good about their strong
candidate, promoting a “change” from the long-serving Marchese.
Kitchener Waterloo
o Who holds it now: NDP Catherine Fife, former head of the Ontario Public School
Board’s Association
o Who’s it in play for: Both Liberal Candidate Jamie Burton and PC Candidate Tracey
Weiler
o Why does it matter: Considered the closest race in the province, Kitchener-
Waterloo is generally a bell-weather riding (aka, it votes for who is likely to form
government). Fife took the seat from the Ontario PCs in 2012, but it will be a nail-
biter for all three parties. Fife’s education connections may keep her on top of the
competition, given how vocal teachers unions have been against Tim Hudak.
Ajax-Pickering
o Who holds it now: Liberal MPP Joe Dickson, who’s held the seat since 2007
o Who’s it in play for: PC Candidate and lawyer Todd McCarthy, who ran against
Dickson in the 2011 campaign as well
o Why does it matter: On the cusp of PC-held Durham region towns including Whitby
and Oshawa, Ajax-Pickering is a 905 seat that the Tories need to win to make
inroads into the GTA. It is held federally by Conservative cabinet minister Chris
Alexander, but the PCs lost by nearly 5,000 votes in the 2011 provincial election
campaign. It would be surprising to see other 905 area code ridings go blue before
Ajax-Pickering.
Sudbury
o Who holds it now: Liberal MPP Rick Bartolucci held the seat before resigning just
prior to the 2014 election campaign (Andrew Olivier is the new Liberal candidate)
o Who’s it in play for: Former Sudbury City Councillor turned NDP candidate Joe
Cimino
o Why does it matter: The NDP are strong in northern Ontario, and hoping to use the
exit of long-time MPP Bartolucci to make inroads in Sudbury. Cimino also got the
backing of the Sudbury Star, the region’s main local newspaper. Outside of
southwestern Ontario and metro Toronto, the NDP will be looking north on election
night as Sudbury is definitely a seat to watch.
Regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, you will need to introduce your organization to new faces, or
reintroduce yourself to friendly faces in new roles.
The team at Summa Strategies and Abacus Data can help. If you’re wondering what to do once the
election’s over, please contact a member of the Summa or Abacus Data Team.
Summa Strategies Canada Inc. Abacus Data Inc.
CONTACT: Tracey Hubley, President CONTACT: David Coletto, CEO
www.summa.ca www.abacusdata.ca
P: 613.235.1400 P: 613-232-2806/
E: info@summa.ca E: david@abacusdata.ca
Final Abacus Data Poll: It’s Too Close to Call
For a complete look at the poll, please visit http://www.ontariopolls.ca
Key Findings
• The Liberals have a 3-point lead over the PCs among committed eligible voters. There has been little
movement in the overall numbers since last week.
• Among likely voters, the Liberals and PCs are at 36% each with the NDP in third at 23%.
• Liberals lead in Toronto, among those aged 30 to 44, among public sector employees, and among
women.
• Tories lead in Eastern Ontario and among those aged 60.
• The NDP leads in the North and is tied with the PCs in Southwestern Ontario.
• Kathleen Wynne has a 5-point lead over Tim Hudak on who would make the best Premier. Among likely
voters Wynne leads by only 2 (Wynne 30%, Hudak 28%, Horwath 19%).
• 55% of eligible voters believe it is time for another party to take over, up 1 since last week. 23% believe
the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged since last week.
• 20% of respondents said the election was about electing a government they could trust while another
20% said it was about how to deal with the economic problems facing the province. 15% percent said it
was about electing a party that would do the best job on health, education, and other public services while
16% said it was about preventing Tim Hudak from winning the election.As voters head to the polls on Thursday, the election is too close to call. While the Liberals lead
by three points among eligible voters, the Tories and Liberals are tied among likely voters, with 36%
each. The NDP’s gains in our last survey have been sustained although they continue to do well
among eligible voters with 26% support. However, among likely voters, NDP support has dropped to
22%.
The big wildcard in the election is turnout and the motivation of voters as they decide whether to vote
at all. We know that PC voters are more motivated which could make the difference in breaking the
tie we report from the survey.
We are not in a position to call this election for either party. It is clear that either the Liberals or the
PCs will win the most votes, and either could also win the most seats. However, we are not making
any seat projections.
Despite a long and often negative campaign, our numbers have been consistent throughout the
campaign. The Liberals have been ahead among eligible voters since our second week of tracking
with the Tories around the low thirties and the NDP around the mid-twenties. While the leaders’
debates stalled Liberal momentum, its effect was not substantial enough to prevent the Liberals
from winning.
Kathleen Wynne has also consistently led as best premier, demonstrating the dilemma many voters
are facing as they head out to vote on Thursday. Many like Wynne personally but also think its time
for a change. That’s the conflict percolating within many swing voters’ thinking.
For Tim Hudak, the opposite is true. A majority of voters have a negative impression of him, and
even among PC supporters, positive impressions are tepid at best. But for voters seeking change,
he is their best hope. If he wins on Thursday it is because the PC base was motivated and turned
out en masse in an otherwise low turnout election.
Finally, for Andrea Horwath, the expectations she and the NDP had at the start of the campaign will
likely not be met. Our polling suggests they should do as well as last time in terms of votes, but that
might not be enough for many of her critics, especially if the Tories form government.
Summa Says
WEEK FIVE QUESTION: What is the “ballot box question”?
Angela Christiano on the Liberals
Just ONE ballot question ? The Ontario Liberals wish there was more
than one question at the top of mind when voters cast ballots tomorrow.
Many voters will be asking themselves if public sector job cuts are indeed
the best job-creation strategy for Ontario’s economy. Accountability is
another are of importance to voters, who may be casting their ballots
based on the past to punish, or on the future for hope. The question
remains how far back this “change” mentality goes - can you really punish
Wynne for McGuinty’s mistakes, without also tying Hudak to Mike Harris
or Andrea Horwath to Bob Rae? It’s also important to consider the local
impact of campaigns; do you vote locally for your preferred candidate for
MPP, or will you vote for who you want to be Premier? Regardless of what your ballot question is,
the last week has seen the polls tighten to a race too close to call. Pollsters have had a difficult time
this election campaign with little to no change for any Party throughout the entire campaign period.
In the end, it is up to the electorate to decide. We will see if strategic votingSumma Says (continued)
materializes. Campaigns are sharpening their GOTV strategies but voter turnout is a problem. In
2011, less than half of eligible voters voted. I wish it was higher and a repeated turnout would be a
shame. Voting is a privilege that many in the world do not have. Take some time to look at each
platform and study each party’s policy. IMHO - Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberal Team
provide a balance of fiscal prudence and stimulating the economy. Add to that her integrity and
experience Ontario will do well under her confident leadership. And PS - Happiness will be seeing
the end of constant political advertising !!
Michele Austin on the Progressive Conservatives
The PCs have stuck to their strategy and script. The question is whether
or not it will work. The PCs focused on Tim Hudak and promoting their
platform. At the ballot box, they want voters to think about the economy –
creating jobs, cutting red tape and support for small business. A different
strategy would have had the PCs pointing out the faults of 12 years of
Liberal government as the key issue for voters. According to the polls,
this policy-heavy strategy has not given the PC Party an
advantage. Though Hudak was praised for his performance at the
debate, this did not translate into a true bump in support. Both the PC
Party and leader Tim Hudak have been under attack by third party
advertisements over the past two weeks. Candidates and the leader
have spent a lot of time clarifying their position to the media and at town
halls against attacks from the Ontario Provincial Police Association, the Teachers Unions and most
recently, the union that represents newspapers in Ontario. With parties in a statistical dead heat, the
PCs will be focusing on getting their supporters out through predicted bad weather and the first
match of the World Cup. The advance poll numbers were down across the province, which means
there is a large degree of voter apathy. For Tim Hudak and the PCs, every vote will count if they
want to steal some ridings away from the Liberals.
Robin MacLachlan on the NDP
Election campaigns are battles between competing election narratives –
what is this election about for your target voters? For Andrea Horwath and
the NDP, this campaign needed to be about change and the Liberal record
of waste, scandal and mismanagement. Tim Hudak threw a million
wrenches in this opposition-friendly narrative with his bogus jobs plan and
botched math. With the media and voter scrutiny squarely on the PC
leader, Andrea Horwath’s message to swing voters has been simple: you
don’t need to choose between bad math and poor ethics. This message
resonates with voters fed up with Liberal scandals and wary of Hudak’s
reckless agenda. However, the final Abacus poll results show an
electorate split over what the election is really about. Different ballot
questions in key battlegrounds could make for a nail biter of an election.You can also read
