MHP POLARISATION TRACKER - THE STATE OF POLARISATION AUGUST 2021
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
THE STATE OF POLARISATION
AUGUST 2021
MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
RESULTS FROM WAVE TWO OF DATA COLLECTION
#NetworkedAgeTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER INTRODUCTION The MHP Polarisation Tracker was launched to better understand the trends shaping polarisation in the UK. The tracker uses data collected through primary research, which is being conducted in collaboration with researchers from University College London and the University of Cambridge, to explore how polarisation on different topics and between various groups evolves over time. By measuring changes in polarisation on a bi-annual basis in the same set of nationally representative survey respondents, we hope to generate unique, novel and important insights into the factors driving issue polarisation and affective polarisation. In this report, we examine the second wave of data collection, which was completed in June 2021 and analysed by Joseph Marks, doctoral researcher at UCL. 2 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UK
THE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
INSIDE THE DATA
SCIENTISTS ARE POLARISING THE PUBLIC However, the results of the second wave of the MHP Polarisation Tracker —
our study of UK public opinion, produced with Cambridge University’s Political
That’s bad news for Britain’s Net Zero challenge
Psychology Lab — suggest that scientists are losing their reputation as unbiased
NICK BARRON, DEPUTY CEO seekers of truth, weakening their ability to galvanise public opinion.
In response to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Differences in how biased those on the political
Change, the UK government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, wrote: right and left view each of the following sources
“The IPCC report is clear: nothing short of transforming society will avert Left-wing (Wave 1) Left-wing (Wave 2) Right-wing (Wave 1) Right-wing (Wave 2)
catastrophe... individuals, employers, institutions and international partners will
need to work together to understand the trade-offs, agree compromises and
Economists who contribute to
seize opportunities.” political debates
Business people who contribute
In other words, reaching Net Zero will require sacrifice. But, as governments
Increasing Source Polarisation
to political debates
have found time and again — on issues ranging from house building to adult
social care — agreeing on the problem is the easy bit. Building support for a The BBC
specific plan is the hard part. A Government fond of Cakeism and fearful of a Red
The Guardian
Wall backlash has delayed publication of the Treasury’s report into the cost of
achieving Net Zero, precisely because it fears the political cost of that sacrifice. Scientists who contribute to
political debates
Last year, when government needed lockdown compliance, scientists like Witty,
The Daily Mail
Van-Tam and Vallance were deployed to make the case for sacrifice. It worked.
The government will be relying on their persuasive power again. Unbiased Neutral Biased
Note: Responses were on 11-point scales, from ‘always unbiased’ to ‘always biased’.
3 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
Between Wave 1 of the Tracker (conducted December 2020 / January 2021) our study pre-dated ‘Madeley vs Michie’ and the broader controversy over Sage’s
and Wave 2 (June 2021), voters became more likely to say that scientists were Communist influences). Oxford scientist Trish Greenhalgh recently blamed the
a biased source of information, with right wing voters registering a particular media for ‘pitting scientists against each other’ and feeding polarisation, but she
increase in perceptions of bias. was also one of the architects of a public letter by scientists that called plans to
unlock ‘a dangerous and unethical experiment’ by the government. This is precisely
While scientists are still seen by both left and right as the least biased source of the kind of language that polarises opinion.
information, this was the biggest shift among the six categories we examined.
The third is growing concern about biases within the Academy. From proposed
Worse, scientists are the second-most polarising source of information on our legislation to defend free speech on campus to high-profile political protests by
list. This means they are at risk of taking on totemic status in the UK’s culture war, academics themselves, 2021 has seen a rise in the number of stories which blur the
with left wing voters adopting them as being on “their side” and right wing voters lines between academia and politics. While a recent study by Kings College found
rejecting them in response. university bias to be a minority concern, focus on the issue is growing.
In this scenario, scientists’ words will be treated as unquestionable truth by the And finally, attempts to shut down avenues of debate and scrutiny inevitably lead
left and deeply suspicious by the right. This is both antithetical to the spirit of to a backlash. The initial censorship of the Lab Leak theory did great damage,
scientific enquiry and unhelpful to the cause of building political consensus. suggesting collusion between media, government, tech and the scientific
community. If you believe that one of those institutions is biased, then the
Why is this happening? transitive law applies to the other conspirators. You are all as bad as each other in
the mind of the observer.
The first cause is the politicisation of the pandemic, which has morphed from a As our Tracker data shows, the scientific community still broadly enjoys the public
“practical” debate about flattening curves to a “values” driven debate about what trust, but this cannot be taken for granted. Scientists need to exercise caution and
kind of society we want to live in. Scientists have been at the forefront of the be careful not to stray too often over the line between ‘what is’ and ‘what ought to
debate and politicians have sought to borrow their credibility — instead, they have be’. Most importantly, they should call out those who seek to use them as pawns in
drained it. their political battles.
The second is the media prominence of scientist-activists (most notably To win public support for action on Net Zero, politicians will need to rely more on
‘Independent Sage’) whose biases have come under increasing scrutiny (note, science, but less on scientists.
4 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
RESULTS
5 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
CONTENTS
9 | VOTING POLARISATION
11 | AFFECTIVE POLARISATION
18 | ISSUE POLARISATION
24 | GROUP CATEGORISATIONS
27 | REFERENCES AND METHODOLOGY
6 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
VOTING POLARISATION
7 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
VOTING POLARISATION Partisan Polarisation
Voter Support and Rejection
Our measure of voting polarisation combines the level of voter
support for each party - assessed by simply computing the
Greens 27% 2%
percentage of eligible voters that voted for each party in the last
general election – with the level of voter rejection of each party –
Brexit 55% 1%
Increasing Voter Polarisation
assessed by asking respondents which political parties they
would never vote for.
This measure shows where the public are broadly in agreement Lib Dems 29% 8%
about which parties they would and would not vote for,
as well as where there is partisan clustering at the extreme
ends of the spectrum. Labour 27% 22%
Not much has changed since December. The Conservative Party and
the Labour Party are the most polarised on this measure because
large numbers of the British public show either high support or
Conservatives 40% 29%
antagonism towards them. However, the Labour Party are still
recording less voter rejection than any of the other main national -100 -50 0 50 100
parties, suggesting that there is a greater pool of potential voters
Voter Rejection Voter Support
available to them than to any other party in Britain. % of respondents who would % of British population
never vote for the party who voted for the party
Percentage of eligible voters who voted for each of the five largest national parties (green bars) and weighted
percentage of survey respondents who said they would never vote for each party (red bars). Voter polarisation is smaller
for parties nearer the top end of the graph and larger for those nearer the bottom end of the graph.
8 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
AFFECTIVE POLARISATION
9 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER AFFECTIVE POLARISATION People who identify with a group tend to prefer their fellow group members to people from rival groups. The standard method used to quantify this form of affective polarisation involves calculating the degree to which group members like in-group members more than out-group members. However, as respondents in this study were asked to rate their feelings towards various groups of people, as well as towards the UK’s main political parties, affective polarisation is represented as the difference between how much in-group members like their group and how much the rest of the population like the same group. 10 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UK
THE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
PARTISAN AFFECTIVE Difference in feelings between a party’s
voters and the rest of the population
POLARISATION Everyone else: Wave 1 Wave 2 Voted for: Wave 1 Wave 2
The results shown suggest that people’s feelings towards Lib Dems
the three main political parties in Britain are slightly more
negative than they were in December. Consistent with the
Increasing Affective Polarisation
results above, our measure of partisan affective polarisation
suggests that people are more polarised in their feelings
about the Conservative Party than they are the other main
parties. Labour
Conservatives
0 2 4 6 8 10
Dislike Neutral Like
Britons are more polarised in their feelings towards the Conservative Party than they are their feelings for the other main political parties.
Differences in affect are smaller for groups nearer the top end of the graph and greater for those nearer the bottom end of the graph.
11 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
GROUP AFFECTIVE Difference in between how much group members
and non-group members like the group
POLARISATION In group: Wave 1 Wave 2 Everyone else: Wave 1 Wave 2
When it comes to how people feel about different Distrust Mainstream News
groups of people, there is not much change since
December 2020. Non-Voters
Increasing Affective Polarisation
Trust Mainstream News
People who voted Leave in the Brexit referendum elicit
Authoritarians
the most affective polarisation of the groups included in
our analysis. Libetarians
Remainers
Interestingly, there are also strong polarising feelings
between those who are proud of Britain’s history and Left-wingers
those who are ashamed of Britons history, although again Right-wingers
this was also the case in December.
Ashamed of Britain’s History
Proud of Britain’s History
Leavers
0 2 4 6 8 10
Dislike Neutral Like
People who voted Leave in the Brexit referendum elicit more affective polarisation than any of the other groups we asked about. Differences in affect
are smaller for groups nearer the top end of the graph and greater for those nearer the bottom end of the graph.
12 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
POLITICIAN POLARISATION
In this wave, we added a new measure of affective polarisation, which we Included in the rating set were the leaders of the main political parties
are calling ‘Politician Polarisation’. in Great Britain, as well as Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage and Dominic
Cummings.
Here, we asked respondents to rate how much they like or dislike various
political figures. Corbyn was included because the Labour Party is somewhat divided
and he is strongly favoured by the Leftist faction of the Labour party.
Farage was included because he was leader of the Brexit Party until 6
March 2021.
Cummings was included because he was questioned by MPs about the
government’s response to the pandemic in a highly publicised hearing
in the month preceding the Wave 2 survey.
13 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
POLITICIAN POLARISATION Difference between how much left and
right-wingers like political figures
Left-wing Right-wing
Those on the left and right of the political spectrum are most polarised in
their feelings towards Boris Johnson and least polarised in their feelings
towards Dominic Cummings. This is because the right are very favourable
towards Johnson, while the left feel very negatively toward him, whereas
Cummings
both those on the left and right are united in their dislike of Dominic
Cummings. Davey
Increasing Politician Polarisation
Interestingly, Caroline Lucas is the most favoured left-wing MP of those Starmer
included in our set, although approximately 30% of our sample reported
that they do not know who she is. Lucas
There is relatively little polarisation in how the left and right feel towards Sturgeon
Ed Davey and Keir Starmer. While Davey has a similarly low level of name
recognition as Caroline Lucas, 96% reported that they know who Keir Corbyn
Starmer is. This is not as high as the name recognition for Jeremy Corbyn,
was known by 99.5% of our sample. Farage
Boris Johnson is the most divisive of the main parties’ political leaders. Johnson
0 2 4 6 8 10
Dislike Neutral Like
Differences in affect are smaller for groups nearer the top end of the graph and greater for those nearer the bottom end of the graph.
14 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
SOCIAL MEDIA Difference between how much social media users
like their in-group and how much others like them
POLARISATION Everyone else Mainly use this social media
Our last measure of affective polarisation was computed
Twitter
from respondents’ ratings of how much they liked users
of different social media platforms.
Increasing Social Media Polarisation
Instagram
People are most divided in how they feel about those who
use TikTok as their main social media platform. LinkedIn
users show the most in-group favouritism, while people Reddit
who use Facebook more than any other platform are the
most disliked group of social media users. Facebook
LinkedIn
TikTok
0 2 4 6 8 10
Dislike Neutral Like
Britons are most polarised over how they feel about people who use TikTok as their main social media platform. Differences in affect are smaller for
groups nearer the top end of the graph and greater for those nearer the bottom end of the graph.
15 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
ISSUE POLARISATION
16 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
ISSUE POLARISATION How polarised different groups are over
current affairs
Issue polarisation is the level of disagreement between
groups on policy positions or issues.
Libertarians vs Authoritarians
To measure issue polarisation in this study,
respondents were asked to indicate their position on 18 Voters vs Non-voters
Increasing Issue Polarisation
different topics, all of which are relevant to the current
cultural and political discourse in Britain.
Leavers vs Remainers
In this wave, we found that Conservative and Labour
voters exhibited the greatest average divergence in their
Left-wing vs Right-wing
views on these issues.
Proud vs Ashamed of Britain’s History
Conservatives vs Labour
0 10 20
Average percentage difference score
Average absolute percentage differences in groups’ answers to questions assessing respondents’ positions on issues relevant to the current cultural
and political discourse in Britain.
17 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
ISSUE POLARISATION Change in how polarised different groups
are over issues
Analysing the change in issue polarisation for each
of these groups, using only the issues that were i
Libertarians vs Authoritarians
ncluded in both waves one and two, revealed that there
has been relatively little change in issue polarisation
since December. Voters vs Non-voters
There is a slightly greater divergence in opinions between (Media) Believers vs Sceptics
those who trust mainstream media and those who
distrust mainstream media than there was in the Wave 1 Leavers vs Remainers
data, and slightly less disagreement between Leavers and
Remainers than in December. Left-wing vs Right-wing
Proud vs Ashamed of Britain’s History
Conservatives vs Labour
-2 0 2
Percentage point change
Average percentage point change in the difference between groups’ answers to the 13 items included in both waves.
Note: This analysis uses only the issues that were included in both waves
18 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
ISSUE POLARISATION Difference in opinion between those on the political
right and left on particular issues
Mean response of those on the left Mean response of those on the right
This breaks down the average issue polarisation score by topic for
left- and right-wing respondents. Elites control the media
Building on the Green Belt
Examination of the data revealed that Brexit is still the most Reinstating lockdown
The economy is doing well
polarising issue for those on the left and right of the political
Economic inequality
spectrum. People on the right tend to agree that “the UK made
Climate change
the right decision to leave the European Union” while those on the
(all issues included in wave 2)
Increasing Issue Polarisation
Britain’s international impact
political left tend to disagree with this statement.
The EU’s international impact
Racial inequality
The second most polarising issue is whether footballers should
Britain’s direction
stop taking the knee at the beginning of football matches.
Scottish independence
Government’s job on health
The third is whether young people should show more respect for
Immigration is harmful
traditional British values; the fourth is whether the UK has done a Goverment competence
good job handling the COVID-19 pandemic; and the fifth is whether Handling of COVID
the government is handling the problems that Britain faces well. Traditional values
Footballers taking the knee
There is surprisingly little polarisation over whether lockdown Brexit
restrictions should be reinstated if there is another wave of
COVID-19 as large as the previous waves, with both left- and Disagree Neutral Agree
right-wing respondents showing a relatively high willingness to put
lockdown measures back in place if there is another bad outbreak. Issue polarisation for left-wing and right-wing respondents on each of the 18 topics included in this survey.
Differences in opinion are smaller on issues nearer the top end of the graph and greater on those nearer the bottom end of the graph.
Note: Responses were on 7-point scales, from ‘strongly disagree’ to ‘strongly agree’
19 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
ISSUE POLARISATION Difference in opinion between those on the political
right and left on particular issues
Left-wing (Wave 1) Left-wing (Wave 2) Right-wing (Wave 1) Right-wing (Wave 2)
Here we assess the differences in respondents’ opinions
on the 13 issues that were included in both waves in June Elites control the media
2021 compared to December 2020. The economy is doing well
Economic inequality
The results suggest that polarisation has not decreased in
part because both those on the left and right have tended Climate change
to shift in the same direction on issues for where there are Britain’s international impact
temporal differences.
Racial inequality
For example, both groups are now more likely to agree that Britain’s direction
the UK made the right decision to leave the EU than they Scottish independence
were at Christmas, but the gap between them is no smaller.
Government’s job on health
The biggest change is in people’s beliefs about the state of Immigration is harmful
the British economy. In December, respondents were very
Goverment competence
pessimistic about the economic outlook; now Conservative
voters express neither positive nor negative views about Traditional values
the economy and Labour voters hold less negative beliefs Brexit
than they did previously.
Disagree Neutral Agree
Issue polarisation for left-wing and right-wing respondents on each of the 13 topics that were included in both this survey and the Wave 1 survey. Differences in opinion
are smaller on issues nearer the top end of the graph and greater on those nearer the bottom end of the graph..
Note: Responses were on 7-point scales, from ‘strongly disagree’ to ‘strongly agree’
20 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
SOURCE POLARISATION Differences in how biased those on the political
right and left view each of the following sources
Left-wing (Wave 1) Left-wing (Wave 2) Right-wing (Wave 1) Right-wing (Wave 2)
We asked respondents how biased they think various
sources of political information are.
While there has not been much change in people’s opinions Economists who contribute to
since the Wave 1 data was collected, it is interesting to note political debates
that the left and right are quite strongly divided over how
biased they think scientists who contribute to political Business people who contribute
Increasing Source Polarisation
to political debates
debates are. Those on the left see them as relatively
unbiased, while those on the right do not share this view.
The BBC
The Daily Mail is the most polarising source included in our
survey, even though both groups think the Mail is biased. The Guardian
Scientists who contribute to
political debates
The Daily Mail
Unbiased Neutral Biased
Bias attributions of left-wing and right-wing respondents when asked about six sources of political information.
Differences in opinion are smaller on issues nearer the top end of the graph and greater on those nearer the bottom end of the graph.
Note: Responses were on 11-point scales, from ‘always unbiased’ to ‘always biased’.
21 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
GROUP CATEGORISATIONS
22 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
GROUP CATEGORISATIONS Pride and shame in
Britain’s history
Trust in mainstream and
official news sources
% replying Proud Ashamed Neither proud nor ashamed % replying Trusting Distrusting Neither trusting nor distrusting
We examined the relationships between voting behaviour
and beliefs on the other socio-political dimensions.
Shows that Conservative voters and Leave voters are far Conservatives Conservatives
more likely to feel proud and less likely to feel ashamed of
Britain’s history than Labour voters and Remain voters,
while non-voters lie somewhere in between, consistent Labour Labour
with the Wave 1 results.
Leavers Leavers
As in Wave 1, voters and non-voters exhibited a strong
difference in how much they trust information from
mainstream and official news sources. Remainers Remainers
Non-voters Non-voters
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
Percentage of respondents giving each response Percentage of respondents giving each response
Pride in Britain’s history and trust in mainstream and official news sources are predictive of voting behaviour.
Note: ‘Slightly’, ‘Moderately’ and ‘Extremely’ response options have been aggregated
23 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
GROUP CATEGORISATIONS Ideological mapping
Where different groups of voters fall on a two-dimensional
model of ideology
Atitudes towards censorship
Preference for censorshop over freedom of speech
Also consistent with our Wave 1 results, the left-right
dimension of political ideology better explains differences
in voting behaviour than the libertarian-authoritarian 100
dimension.
Authoritarian
80
Nonetheless, it is interesting to note that there is still a
statistically significant difference between Labour voters
60
and Conservative voters on the vertical axis of this map, **
with Labour voters expressing more favourable attitudes Remainers
Leavers
Labour voters
towards censorship than Conservatives. Conservatives 40
Libertarians
Non-voters
There has not been much movement in where different 20
groups of voters place themselves on the Political
Compass.
0
Left-wing Right-wing Conservative voters Labour voters
Average ideological scores for Conservative, Labour, Leave and Remain voters, and non- Labour voters are significantly more likely to report that some forms of speech should be
voters, on a left-right spectrum (x-axis) and a libertarian-authoritarian spectrum (y-axis). censored than are Conservative voters.
Wave 1 results are plotted in a transparent colouring underneath the Wave 2 results. Note: error bars represent the standard error of the mean. **pTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
REFERENCES AND METHODOLOGY
25 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE MHP POLARISATION TRACKER
METHODOLOGY
SAMPLE SIZE: 1000 GB ADULTS
REFERENCES
FIELDWORK: 12TH - 30TH JUNE 2021 1
Lauka, A., McCoy, J., & Firat, R. B. (2018). Mass partisan
polarization: Measuring a relational concept.
1,000 GB adults aged 18+ completed this study online between 12 American Behavioral Scientist, 62(1), 107-126.
June – 30 June 2021. Participants were recruited through Prolific 2
Pew Research Center, 2020, “pewmethods”
Academic based on their: voting behaviour in the 2019 general election Available at: github.com/pewresearch/pewmethods.
and 2016 EU referendum, country of residence, age, gender, ethnicity
and education. The final sample was then statistically weighted to the
national profile of all adults aged 18+ on these characteristics, with
target weights derived from 1) The results of the 2019 general election
and 2016 EU referendum 2) Official ONS population estimates 3) Large
scale surveys such as the YouGov and Ipsos MORI post-election surveys
and the British Election Study.
26 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION The Networked Age Guide to Communicating in a Polarised World can be downloaded at mhpc.com/networked-age A further Polarisation Tracker report will be published in Winter 2021. Thank you to our partners at The Depolarization Project, More in Common, Cambridge University Political Psychology Lab and YouGov for helping us to design this study. To find out more about our Networked Age research programme contact nick.barron@mhpc.com mhpc.com @mhpc mischiefpr.com @mischiefpr #NetworkedAge
You can also read
