Polar Bear Plague on the Veluwe - Essays on the future Booklet
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Booklet
Polar Bear Plague on the Veluwe
Essays on the future
Summary by B.T.M. Verlaan
1
Copyright © Commissie van Overleg Sectorraden voor Onderzoek en Ontwikkeling
(COS) (Commission of Consultation of Sector Councils for Research and Development),
The Hague, the Netherlands.
All rights reserved. Nothing from this publication or the information it contains may be
reproduced, stored or transferred without permission of the COS.
The members of the editorial staff, authors and the publisher do not bear any
responsibility for damage to possessions or persons as a result of using this publication
and/or the information it contains.
Published by the Commissie van Overleg Sectorraden onderzoek en ontwikkeling (COS)
(Commission of Consultation of Sector Councils for Research and Development) , the
Netherlands (http://www. de COS-toekomstverkenningen.nl). The system of the
sectors councils covers the following sectors:
- nature, the environment and spatial planning (RMNO),
- the green space and the agro cluster (InnovatieNetwerk-NRLO),
- health (RGO),
- development cooperation (RAWOO); and
- technology and techniques (STT).
This summary is a collection of essays ‘Polar bear plague on the Veluwe, essays on the
future’. Editing of the collection of essays was done by Prof Dr R.J. In ’t Veld and J.H.
van der Veen, and the final editing by Dr F.M.R.C. Basten (March 2006), supplemented
by information from the Cluster document of the implementation group (May 2006).
Rapporteur and Editorial Office: B.T.M. Verlaan
Secretary Horizon Scan
www.toekomstverkennen.nl
Cover: “Snowy trees at the foot of the Veluwe.”, photo van B. Verlaan, winter
2005/2006. Copyright (free of charge) has been granted for this publication by B.
Verlaan.
ISBN 978-90-72863-25-6
1nd edition
2
Table of contents
Preface 5
1. Introduction 7
2. Spatial Planning: the Promised Land 10
Cluster information 10
Summary 10
Recommendations 11
3. Infrastructure: the Power of the Metaphor, the Netherlands as the Centre
of Transnational Infrastructural Systems 13
Cluster information 13
Summary 13
Recommendations 15
4. Energy: the Century of my Mother 17
Cluster information 17
Summary 17
Recommendations 18
5. Robotics: what Opportunities can Robots and Intelligent Devices offer? 20
Cluster information 20
Summary 21
Recommendations 21
6. Technology and Democracy 24
Summary 24
Recommendations 24
7. Economics: towards a New World Order – between Dream and Nightmare 26
Cluster information 26
Summary 26
Recommendations 26
8. Capitalize on Conflicts & Conflict Management: Export of Mediation 27
Cluster information 30
Summary Conflicts I 30
Summary conflicts II 31
Recommendations I 31
Recommendations II 32
9. Education and Labour Market: Investing in the Future 35
Cluster information 35
Summary 35
Recommendations 36
10. Globalisation and Health: a New Plague or a Sustainable Future? 37
Cluster information 37
Summary 37
Recommendations 38
11. Self-Mutating Man Subject to Social Engineering 40
Cluster information 40
Summary 40
Recommendations 40
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12. Ageing is Cool: Opportunities and Choices in an Ageing Society 43
Cluster information 43
Summary 43
Recommendations 44
13. To conclude 45
14. Conclusion and follow-up 47
Information on Essayists 50
Annexes 52
1. Commission of Consultation of Sector Councils (COS); client 52
2. Horizon Scan 52
3. Brainstorming groups 52
4. Links 52
5. Products of the Horizon Scan 53
6. Composition implementation group 53
7. Photography Accounting 54
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Preface
This booklet refers to a book that is part of an operation called Horizon Scan. This book
– Polar Bear Plague on the Veluwe – is an intermediate step (of 280 pages), during a
long-term trip. As a first gesture, we therefore offer you this concise representation of
this collection of essays.
The Horizon Scan activities of the ‘Commissie van Overleg Sectorraden voor Onderzoek
en Ontwikkeling’ (COS) (Commission of Consultation of Sector Councils for Research
and Development) led to several products; we refer you to their final report. However,
with this Horizon Scan a new start is also made with formulating a future-oriented
knowledge agenda for the Netherlands. This operation takes place in the context of the
government, the research community, and social actors operating in a future-oriented
way drawing benefit from looking further than the horizon. In a European context, the
COS participates actively in a European Future-oriented Knowledge Agenda.
We hope that dealing with uncertainties without paralysis is what will remain after this
collection of essays has been read. The future lies before us and, for the editors of the
book ‘Polar Bear Plague on the Veluwe”, behind them. The book about the future has
been finished. The texts will now enter the world of the reader. You can now make a
journey into the future. Some texts may scare you, whereas others will make you
hopeful.
The essays in the book are like a palette that is far from complete. Along the axis of the
environment – space, infrastructure, energy, robotics – towards man – education,
illnesses, the human being subject to social engineering, ageing – we pass several
intermediate stations: democracy and technology, economics and world order,
conflicts and conflict management.
The essays are not predictions that arise from strictly formulated causal theories. At
the level of complexity touched upon here, such theories do not exist. An authoritative
body in Stanford (USA) recently formulated the proposition that in social sciences the
chaos theory will have replaced the causal analysis as the dominant approach within
twenty-five years. In its applications, fundamental unpredictability is the very result of
the chaos theory.
And so you will make a journey without a final destination or any certainty. During your
hard travels, you will make your own designs, initially with some trepidation, like an
aquarellist just starting a new painting. Gradually, you will enjoy your own
inventiveness. Using the methods found in some essays, you will then refine these
designs, not only in a cognitive way, but also with a mixture of intuition, emotion and
knowledge.
The collection of essays ‘Polar Bear Plague on the Veluwe’ is therefore not a compass,
but rather an invitation. Many "magnets" in its vicinity prevent the compass from
indicating where the North is. "North of" automatically implies "south of". In as far as
there is any order at all, it is of a complex nature. Finding a course does not require a
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compass, either. In the worlds of knowledge, ability and want, you will find a course by
utilising all your competences simultaneously. Your movements bear resemblance to
those of a bat rather than a lemming: blind to the issues of the day, but not deaf to the
sounds of the future.
Prof Dr Henriette Maassen van den Brink
Chair of the Commission of Consultation of Sector Councils
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1. Introduction
The classical literature on the future, such as the books Utopia (More, 1516) and
Brave New World (Huxley, 1932), but also 1984 (Orwell, 1948), The Time Machine
(Wells, 1895), and the works of Jules Verne, Blokken (Bordewijk, 1931) and This
Perfect Day (Levin, 1970), offer us a choice, like the films Metropolis (1927), The
Matrix trilogy (1999-2003) and the television series Star Trek (from 1966) and
Raumschiff Orion (1966) do. Not only do they provide an insight into the fantasy world
of their makers, they also hold a mirror to us: This is what we, human beings, are
capable of; but is this what we really want to do? This is not only about the
technological future, but also the socio-cultural future. Our power to imagine
ourselves in fictitious characters shows us aspects of ourselves that were previously
beyond our imagination. We are infected by the jubilant mood of utopias, whereas the
dispirited despondence of dystopias makes us pessimistic. Whether both genres
prompt us to act is a principally unanswerable question. The explorations of the future
as a product in the here and now cannot be linked to the actual future. If the future
turns out differently, either new actions are based on the story, or the story is simply
wrong. And, however eerily accurate some predictions turn out to be, a causal link
between fiction and reality cannot be demonstrated. We can only guess at what would
have happened if we had opted for another course.
What about the forecasts for the future that have an academic origin or an origin in
policymaking? Are the report of the Club of Rome (1970) and its revised versions Limits
to Growth (1973), Future Shock (Toffler, 1979), Facing the Future (Inter Future Study
Group of the OECD, 1980) and the Explorations of the Future Based on Policy
[Beleidsgerichte Toekomst Verkenningen] I, II and III (the Dutch variants of it, 1982,
1983, 1984) capable of introducing new, different futures? These studies rather fed
scepticism and an attitude of egoism and materialism; ‘après nous le déluge’, as we
mimic the mistress of Louis XV. But can we permit ourselves the same decadence
prevalent at the court of Versailles? Would Madame de Pompadour herself want it,
knowing what we do now? Current pictures of the future are not always rose-coloured.
The attitudes vary from optimism to pessimism, with a great deal of indifference in
between.
Can an operation such as this put matters on the agenda? The realisation of this book
serves to put on the agenda important knowledge questions that are to lead to
research for future policy. Many examples show that knowledge agendas are closely
related to policy agendas and other social agendas. And the process involved in
choosing issues to be put on the agenda precedes these being actually put on it. There
is pressure on the government to give priority to the theme. As long as a theme is not
on the policy agenda, there are insufficient public research funds available for it.
Without a position on the knowledge agenda, no innovative research will take place
and policymakers and the sector itself are left empty-handed. A good but sad example
is the knowledge agenda of sustainable tourism. No department had been very
interested in this before. This may change. A circle which the various parties involved
in the Horizon Scan project are trying to break out of. by mapping out the feeling of
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civil society as a new source of attaching a meaning and prioritisation. This is
necessary, because the persons setting the agenda at government bodies, NGOs,
knowledge organisations and the trade community must know what the public at large
expect and fear –desires and nightmares- in respect of the future. Not only rational
issues or those whose existence can be reasoned, but in particular also that which
cannot be reasoned, and possibly even that which is injudicious, are capable of
generating new perspectives. The collection of essays is a sub-product of the Horizon
Scan project; an initial impetus. This booklet is your appetiser.
Based on the previous rounds of stock-taking and consultation performed previously in
the Horizon Scan, the authors were invited to write an essay. In doing so, they were
free in choosing their own set-up and methods. Some essays were set up as an
exploration from the present in the direction of possible futures. Others chose as point
of departure a time in the future providing a report and sometimes also an explanation
for the answer to the question how it came about this way.
In the collection of essays, scientists, journalists and public servants write about
varying subjects which they see as the main challenges we are faced with. In this
booklet you will first be informed per essay of some of the knowledge they already
possessed, in the form of so-called ‘cluster information’. This cluster information is in
itself the result of a number of related intermediate steps: a detailed stock-taking and
analysis of literature, a round of consultations of experts and organisations at home
and abroad who engage themselves in exploring the future (both ‘foresight’ and
‘forecast’) and several sounding board group sessions with specialists from various
own circles of politics, administration and science. More information on this can be
found on the website of the Horizon Scan.
The other part – the personal knowledge, expertise and experience of each essayist –
is reflected in the stories they wrote at the request of the Implementation Group of the
Horizon Scan. This is followed per essay by the summary of the author’s contribution -
in bullets - and a fine-tuning to produce recommendations (that is, from the
perspective of one reader). Some summaries and recommendations are longer than
others; as not all texts were similar.
After having read the essays in ‘Polar Bear Plague on the Veluwe’, you may come up
with other recommendations, based on backgrounds and experiences in areas and
disciplines that differ from those of the essayist. This may entice you into expressing
your own opinion in the media. This would be wonderful, for the very purpose of the
Horizon Scan is to share information that cuts across borders, domains and disciplines
while stimulating the discourse. In a final report, the client itself – COS – lifts a corner
of the veil showing you the beginning of the discussion with its members about the
future.
What are the essays about? They start with ‘the silt of the Rhine’, which is how
Napoleon referred to the Netherlands. Mr Van Kasteren enters into the spatial
development of our silt. Ms Schueler lists the dilemmas and examples of good practice
as regards the transport of people, goods and information in her essay on
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infrastructure. Prof Dr Van der Linde looks back from the future on geo-political
developments in respect of energy. In their essay on robotics, Dr Klapwijk and Mr Van
Rij show that our Western ideas about robots and artificial intelligence differ from
those in Japan and they propose a number of strategies for a smooth introduction of
these innovations in the Netherlands. Mr Eschen writes about the relationship
between technological possibilities and democracy. Prof Rademaker presents, starting
from globalisation, the dilemmas and expectations for the world order and suggests the
rootstock as a perspective for new collaborative networks. In the essays of Prof Dr
Junne and Mr Te Velde and that of Ms Slootweg, the outlines of the Netherlands as a
conflict mediator are described. Prof Dr Groot and Prof Dr Maassen van den Brink
write about education and labour. Prof Martens enters into the possible effects of
globalisation and climate change on infection diseases. Self-mutating man as he is
subject to social engineering is the subject of Mr Hendriks’s essay. In the final essay of
this collection, Mr Heemskerk contends that the many vital and healthy grey-haired
people alive in 2050 are a blessing for society. The chapter Summary sums up the
conclusions of the essayists in bullet form. In the final chapter, the members of the
staff of the executive group reflect upon the issues brought forward and make some
connections hoping that you will do this, too. They do so independently and with the
same freedom given to the essayists.
Neither the collection of essays itself, nor this booklet cover everything, not even the
most pressing matters. Where everybody is already voicing its concerns, we are silent.
For example about the climate: A rising of sea level, more water flowing under the
bridges, who does not talk about this? But here, too, there are no certainties and no set
of predictable developments. Some argue that we can expect a new ice age in our
region very soon. As a mark of honour to the unpredictability of this, we have chosen
the title of this collection. A polar bear plague in our national park ‘Veluwe’ is not
fundamentally impossible or inconceivable. This applies to many domains of our lives.
9
2. Spatial Planning: the Promised Land
The chapter written by Mr Van Kasteren in the collection of essays on the cluster
Spatial Planning has been given as subtitle ‘the Promised Land’. Below, you will find
the cluster information on this theme and the summary in bullet form of the chapter in
hand. The contribution itself did not contain any explicit list of recommendations, but
different propositions and suggestions which the rapporteur listed below. As much as
possible the verbatim text of the essay has been used, apart from a few editorial
changes.
Cluster information
The disappearance of agricultural subsidies may result in great changes in the
countryside after 2012. What consequences does this have for the Netherlands? What
changes will we witness, for instance, will agriculture disappear? And, if so, what will
replace it? What will the shift between rural and urban areas look like for a growing,
ageing population? It will become more important to use sparse space properly and
perhaps create new space. This cluster also touches upon other clusters. What has the
emerging of Asia to do with our agriculture?
Can we use our knowledge for development cooperation? Geopolitical tensions: In this
increasingly insecure and turbulent world, do we need to maintain a certain self-
sufficiency or invest in political stability and fair and proper trade relations with
countries where production is cheaper? What effects do climatological and
demographic changes have on a sustainable agricultural strategy? What does silting of
the coastal areas by the rising sea level mean for agriculture? What will sustainable
agriculture look like in 50 years’ time: Are we going to preserve the scenery, or have it
run wild, or do we farm it; do we keep breeding grounds for developing knowledge
which we can export? What questions do we need to ask scientists, politicians and our
society? Do we not frenetically hang on to a sector that is already past its peak?
Summary
• Although there are sufficient ingredients for a spatial horror scenario, we can
also adopt a more positive attitude and seriously consider the organisation of
space and the development of new arrangements between farmers and citizens,
city and countryside. Arrangements that offer possibilities for new forms of
interaction between humans and nature and the creation of new landscapes.
Subsidised agriculture will for example disappear.
• This offers new opportunities:
o for the relationship between city and countryside;
o for cushioning climate changes, including perhaps even a new type of
agriculture (salt tolerant, aimed at the sea, for example by farming fish)
and water management;
o for recreation as a result of which the rigid, sober Dutch scenery of
usefulness is rapidly changing into a scenery of entertainment; and
various other options (development of nature).
10Meadow near Park Bellinkckhof
The country side of the Province
of Overijssel shows itself to be
calm, and wet for the stressed big
town cosmopolitan. At narrow
roads, on foot, bicycle or
horseback he or she may flee
from and leave all the hectic
behind of intercontinental flights,
sic track highways,
unmanageable diaries and the
continuous overload of
information.
Source: Near the town of Almelo
(Netherlands);, MC
DSC01539_bij_Bellinckhof_16-02-2007
• A turning point will only be achieved if we manage to handle the competing
claims of living, working, recreating, nature and dealing with water. If, for
example, the farm becomes a refuge for busy managers for self-development,
recovering themselves or just to spend some time. Van Kasteren expects that
there will be three types of farmers. Volume farmers (for the bulk), value
farmers (for the refined chemical and pharmaceutical industry), and niche
players. These latter may make possible a whole new type of farmers’ market,
but arrangements for urban self employment and therapeutical care farms as
well. It is characteristic for the scenario described that in a large part of the
country various functions are combined.
Recommendations
• Restoration of regional differentiations indeed calls for a change of paradigm on
spatial planning, as Noëlle Aarts and Roel During observe in their memorandum
Zelforganisatie en ruimtegebruik (Self-organisation and use of space) (2006).
The old urban and rural planning based on orders [order-based planning] with its
strictly separated functions (urban, agrarian, nature) is in fact by definition
unsuitable for developing new combinations of functions. In addition, the
current alternative, area-focused development urban and rural planning, as
described in the Spatial Planning Memorandum, in practice often gets bogged
down in endless procedure, as a result of which nothing is done or nobody
actually wishes to do anything. Free market forces, by which companies and the
government wish to earn a lot of money from ground, appear to be inadequate
as a starting point for spatial planning.
• It is therefore our challenge for the years ahead to look for a strategy wherein
self-organising, casual communities can develop without ending up in group
centrism (the NIMBY syndrome). On the one hand, the government is to
11stimulate this type of self-organising communities by not subjecting them to
excessively strict rules. In as far as they take over public tasks, this will be
honoured via tax credits or other benefits. On the other hand, the government is
to formulate clear frameworks within which the self-organising communities
can operate. The central government is to reserve space for the Agrarian and
Ecological Main Structure, as well as for roads, railway lines and ports and of
course for water management in a broad sense.
• Such a strategy requires the necessary balancing skills. The balance is
constantly shifting between that which grows from the bottom up and that which
is framed from above. In doing so, public servants and politicians will need to
suppress their almost natural inclination of wishing to decide what is best for the
population. Vice versa, citizens, both individually and as a group, must again
learn to take into account general interests, such as mobility, nature and water
management and in general the quality of the public space.
123. Infrastructure: the Power of the
Metaphor, the Netherlands as the Centre of
Transnational Infrastructural Systems1
The chapter provided by Ms Schueler in the collection of essays on the cluster
Infrastructure was given as second title ‘The Netherlands as centre of transnational
infrastructure’. Below, you will find the cluster information on this theme and the
summary in bullet form of this chapter. The contribution itself did not contain any
explicit list of ‘recommendations’, but various propositions and suggestions were listed
below. As much as possible the verbatim text of the essay has been preserved,
however minor editorial changes are possible.
Cluster information
Infrastructural facilities (with regard to nutrition, agriculture, energy, traffic and
transport, living, water, health, communication) last a long time and the compelling
force of the directions taken is great. The current roads follow the outlines of ancient
Roman roads and part of the housing stock is more than a century old. We see dozens
of developments in the real world and in the virtual world. The speed of horse and
wagon has long gone; at sea and in the air we are already witnessing the first
congestions, and near collisions are daily phenomena.
Picture of Internet’s Traffic; at 23-11-2003 and 15-1-2005.
The left picture shows the traffic of information at November 23rd, 2003. The colours
refer to the country codes of the senders. The picture at the right shows only 30% of 15th
January’s 2005 traffic. Without this reduction, the picture would only show a greyish or
white sphere.
Legenda: coulour codes: net, ca, us com, org mil, gov, edu, jp, cn, tw, au de, uk, it, pl, fr
br, kr, nl unknown (white) (Source: OPTE http://www.opte.org/maps/ )
Summary
On the basis of a new analysis of infrastructures, we can look into how the Netherlands
may deal with future developments.
13• A first theme concerns the ‘standards’. Standardisation is a form of regulating and
coordinating technology. Knowledge of standardisation processes increases the
insight into the development of technical systems and networks. Standards play an
important, often invisible role to enable flows between countries, systems and
modalities. The investigation into standardisation (national, European and
international) however so far takes place in different, relative separate disciplines
and domains.
• A second theme is the securing of public values; the front piece (par excellence)
for each drinking-water company or railway company. These values are not fixed,
because they can shift and conflict. A proper analysis already takes place at the
Foundation Next Generation Infrastructures; extending the conclusions to the
future would certainly produce interesting insights which are essential for the
question how the Netherlands can play a long-lasting role as a junction of
infrastructural networks.
• A third theme is the decision-making process on infrastructural projects. The
decision-making on the Betuweroute1 has become a notorious example. In this
theme, in particular the analysis of the issue of governance is very important. In
the report Unseen Europe, the Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research points to
the differences between Dutch relations and powers and those in Europe. The
countries of the European Union also differ strongly in their forms of governance,
as a result of which their decision-making processes are also different. For a
transnational infrastructure this means that a proper understanding of the various
decision-making practices is very necessary in order for a country to take up a
position regarding these infrastructures.
Öresund’s Bridge
The Oresund’s Bridge between Denmark
and Sweden was officially opened at July
1st, 2000. It offers an alternative to the ferry
services between Helsingør and
Helsingborg. This stretch of water is no
longer a barrier between the northern and
the southern parts of Europe
The Toll Bridge is in fact a combination of
a tunnel and a bridge and is open 24 hours
each day. The Toll Gates are located at the
Swedish side.
Source: BV/15092004/imm020_20 Beeldbank COS
• Lastly, the fourth theme. In 2005 the European Foresight Monitoring Network
conducted a study into 450 explorations of the future in Europe. The results are
1
The ‘Betuweroute’refers to a –for the Duthc- well know railway trajectory as it involved considerable political
tensions and a lot of policy processes.
14interesting. Their study shows that only 1% was interested in transnational areas.
How is it possible then to bring about a better relationship between national and
international developments as far as the infrastructure is concerned?
• How can the future role of the Netherlands as a junction of infrastructural
networks evolve effectively? To that end, alignment should be sought with
international partners who are also engaged in explorations of the future of
infrastructure.
• The essay has no pretension of being complete. Its purpose is to challenge us to
take another look at the debate on the future of infrastructure in the Netherlands.
It calls on to look beyond the Dutch horizon and place the development of
infrastructure in an explicit international context. Let us begin!
Recommendations
• A first recommendation concerns standards. Standardisation is a form of
regulating and coordinating technology. Knowledge of standardisation processes
increases the insight into the development of technical systems and networks.
Standards play an important, often invisible role to enable flows between
countries, systems and modalities. Agreeing on a standard offers possibilities for
exchange, but having a standard can also close off the market for other parties.
Therefore it is important for the parties involved to understand the position of
Dutch parties in this. This means: studies. So far, standardisation has taken place
in different disciplines that are relatively separate from one another: history of
technology, Science and Technology Studies and management sciences. In
addition there is a gap between these academic perspectives on standardisation on
the one hand and the experts from the industry, technology platforms and
commissions formulating the standards on the other hand. The recommendation
for standardisation links a number of important research recommendations in the
area of science and technology studies. In particular where there is a direct link
with everyday practice of people in organisations and government bodies.
• A second recommendation is the safeguarding of public values. Taking public
values seriously is a worthy (public) cause for any drink water company or railway
company. This is a complex matter and at an international level the complexities
only multiply. A good analysis of this theme has already been performed by the
Foundation for Next Generation Infrastructures; extending the conclusions to the
future would certainly produce interesting insights that are essential for the
question how the Netherlands can play a long-lasting role as junction of
infrastructural networks.
• A third recommendation is the decision-making process regarding infrastructural
projects. The decision-making process with regard to the Betuweroute has become
a notorious example, clearly showing the ‘interwovenness’ and connection with
other countries. An analysis of the governance issue is very important. In its report
Unseen Europe, the Spatial Planning Agency points to the differences between
Dutch relations and powers and those in Europe; the countries of the European
Union differ strongly in types of governance.
15• Lastly, as a fourth recommendation; search and study alliance with international
partners who are also engaged in explorations of the future of infrastructure. In
2005, the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN) conducted a study into
450 explorations of the future in Europe. Only 1%, mind you, covered
transnational areas.
164. Energy: the century of my mother
The chapter provided by Prof Dr Van der Linde in the collection of essays on the cluster
Energy was given as a second title ‘century of my mother’. This is the century of Coby
van der Linde, as her daughter may see it, years from now. Below, you will find cluster
information on this theme and a summary in bullet form of the chapter. The
contribution itself did not contain any explicit list of recommendations, but different
propositions and suggestions have been listed below. The verbatim text has been used
as much as possible; there may be small editorial changes.
Cluster information
Energy production and consumption is a point of great concern for our future and we
will need to look for new and sustainable solutions. Increasing energy consumption is a
point of great concern for our future and we need to look for new, sustainable
solutions. The increased energy consumption as a result of emerging economies calls
for an accelerated search rate and transition to sustainable energy supplies. The
energy from fossil fuels is finite. Although picking up the theme of new sources of
energy offers opportunities and challenges for the Netherlands, an accelerated search
rate can more efficiently be achieved by an “impartial” internationally geared
development of this field. A possible starting point is an exploration with international
or European parties (government, trade and industry, research) on the basis of
previously conducted national explorations.
Summary
• The century of energy abundance came to an abrupt end in 2027: the international
political rivalry between the post-industrial countries not only set the energy
agenda but also the geopolitical agenda.
• The fossil era came to an end in the ten years after the crash in 2027.
• It was replaced by a multitude of energy carriers. In 2050 many products in
consumer electronics were fitted out with solar cells and households supplied their
own energy via sun and wind.
• Mobility underwent a difficult transition, also hindered by for example an agro-
energy industry which encountered problems as early as in 2018 as a result of
serious shortages resulting from the deteriorating trade climate and the growing
energy nationalism in Africa and South America.
• The fourth generation biomass fuels gave solace as late as 2043.
17A Super User of Energy
Rocket engines are super users of
energy, even compared to
intercontinental airplanes. Each
launch burns some 500,000
gallons of exclusive fuel; that is
some 1.895 million litres.
(http://edition.cnn.com/2003/TEC
H/space/01/16/btsc.obrien.shuttl
e/)
This fuel can only be burned once.
Because the total supply of fossil
fuels is limited, there is a ‘zero
sum game’ in relation to other
applications of these amounts of
energy.
Source:RA/Florida2005/Saturnus-motor
IMG_0032
Recommendations
The focus should lie on:
• products in consumer electronics that have been fitted out with much more
efficient solar cells. Households, too, are to be capable of sufficiently generating
and using sun, wind and geothermal energy in order to provide warm water,
heating and electricity for larger household appliances;
• bio mass fuels; the production of bio energy is to be separated from the available
agricultural area. This requires an effective control of bacterial and
nanotechnologies;
• an understanding of and insight into the problems of transition to energy
sources that are cleaner and less dependable on fossil fuels. The presumptions
with which the process was started are possibly less easy to realise. This has to
do with the fact that the international political and economic relations, the
context within which this transition is to take place, have changed so radically.
There will be no gradual process. For the transition itself may easily become the
subject of conflict between countries; energy is power;
• alternatives for China and North America. These countries can pride themselves
on considerable national coal reserves. However, using these undermines the
climate measures of other countries that do make out a case for the Kyoto
protocol. A CO2-neutral coal-fired power station could be an answer; for the
Kyoto countries themselves as well;
18• a sort of ‘Manhattan project’ after the example of the United States. This project
involved the setting-up of institutes where the best in their professions were
accommodated to develop new energy sources and infrastructures. At the same
time, these groups can be asked to think up intelligent methods for the
implementation thereof in order to create non-emission cars and houses that
are clean as well as energy producing;
• European and energy institutes in which a renewed appeal is made to
craftsmanship and responsibility; intellectual room is required to utilise
knowledge and capacity innovatively;
• cautiousness in opening European energy knowledge laboratories; it takes a
huge effort to put an end to the – to date – hardly efficient approach of the
European energy and transition problem;
• central steering and stability in the European infrastructure. If each country
only comes up with its own solutions, which it applies in the energy system in its
own way, dependence on the chain within the energy system makes that these
problems and solutions do not neatly stop at the border. An enthusiastic
introduction of energy innovations in one country led to greater system
instability in other countries. This was to be expected, because such problems
also came up in the large scale introduction of certain energy solutions
elsewhere in the world.
195. Robotics: what opportunities do robots and
intelligent devices offer?
The chapter provided by Mr Van Rij and Dr Klapwijk in the collection of essays on the
cluster Robotics was given as second title ‘what opportunities do robots and intelligent
devices offer?’. Below, you will find the cluster information on this theme and a
summary in bullet form. The verbatim text has been used as much as possible; there
may however be small editorial changes.
Cluster information
The past fifty years are characterised by an accelerated development of computer-
controlled automation in sectors and public services. The combination of this with the
development of cable-controlled communication across the ether offer many
opportunities. Huge amounts of information are distributed between people, sensors,
computers and equipment across the world in just fractions of seconds. What
knowledge is required for this? How far can the interconnectivity of communication
systems be carried through? The introduction of advanced robots or robot systems will
have a far reaching influence on the economy.
Who will be ‘first’, the East or the West? Or will the South be the surprising ‘winner’ in
2050? The question can be raised whether the worldwide employment of ‘robotics’ will
follow the same pathway as that of the computer. This device was initially considered
of limited use (five computers across the world, as IBM chairman Mr Watson thought
in 1943) and subsequently regarded as a threat to (manual) employment for large parts
of the population. The reality was different: 50-60 years after this famous statement
everybody is using computers and society strongly depends on it. But suppose that
robots and intelligent systems would do with headwork, the same as computers did
with a lot of handiwork? Including the maintenance and development of new robots and
expert systems! What does this mean for us and our society?
20Robot 1 and robot 2
The one life-sized doll used during this
street theatre performance, curiously
investigates another one, was still being
operated by sticks. The ‘doll’ at the
cover of the Horizonscan Report 2007
(RI-MAN of the RIKEN-concern) does
not need that. It could move a
autonomous through streets and
corridors if necessary. Where will we
meet the first intelligent robots? In the
theatre, the streets, at the reception
desk of the City Hall or of your company,
or in the privacy of home?
Source: Town of Almelo(Netherlands); MC set-
72157594200844151/Almelo_straattheater_15-
07-2006_08861
Summary
• The development of robots and artificial intelligence (AI) is to be seriously
reckoned with. One of the impediments to be evened for building up a good
position is narrowing the gap that exists in the Dutch and European systems
between fundamental research and commercial applications.
• The application of robots and AI in the personal and social environment will
continue strongly. It is useful to explore and investigate the possibilities and
influences of robots, AI and interconnectivity in further detail.
• The outcome should determine whether it is useful to employ means to create
and strengthen the Dutch role, for example in designing, developing and using it;
insight into this is a minimum requirement in the short term. Such exploration
by a network of actors serves a number of purposes:
o insight into the development, production and application of robots both
from an economic and a social perspective;
o insights into the consequences for the job market and the relations with
trends such as ageing, globalisation, the new political world order et
cetera;
o listing options for steering said developments;
o identification of partnerships both at home and abroad to create
networks.
Recommendations
Mr Van Rij and Dr Klapwijk recommend not to delay focusing on interconnectivity and
robotics because these appear to be new basic technologies that are relevant for
almost all sectors. Consider, for example, their use in working processes in the
household, leisure time, traffic and transport, warfare, spatial planning and house-
21building, agriculture, environment, education, political and legal systems and many
other areas. If interconnectivity is employed on a broad scale, we will see a change of
character of some of the future challenges and opportunities in many policy areas that
are cause for concern now. Think of, for example, the job market, the role and position
of the higher educated from all fields of study and in particular in the sciences. Or
think of the possibility that the employment of robots and AI systems can make us
more competitive towards low-wage countries.
Caution is advocated in the introduction of robotics and AI. The negative attitude in
particular in Occidental stories and films may lead to polarised discussions and a
conflict between supporters and opponents that hardly seems to advance things.
Previous discussions about technology almost invariably did not result in consensus.
Either the opponents win and can (temporarily) stop a certain development, or the
advocates win and the developments continue. In the literature on technological
developments, various approaches can be found (Smits, 2002; Eggen, 2005). Both
authors consider a timely public debate on new technologies between advocates and
opponents as the solution.
Via such a debate it is possible to determine the direction in which we wish these
developments to go. It turned out that opposed positions are impossible to bridge by
adjusting the technology or by research into the social consequences of robots. So as
to break through this impasse, Van Rij and Klapwijk suggest gradually building up
experiences to accompany the social acceptance of robots and AI systems. A good
system is inconvincible in the sense that the user does not experience any barrier in
using it and can devote himself to emotionally experiencing a situation as intended in
ambient technology. One of the specialists (Mulder) expects that an ever increasing
symbiosis will develop between people and their environment. An environment that
empathises, makes judgements and supports, and stands in where needed.
In 2036, Mulder expects robots to be integrated into the personal living environment
and the perception of it is that they will often not be considered as a separate
phenomenon.
The authors expect that Robots and AI devices will basically be applicable in various
fields and offer all kinds of opportunities. For example, applications in space travel,
health care, education, policy and administration, justice, trade, agriculture, traffic
and transport, production, households, communication, underground construction,
research and development, leisure (sports), art, police, security and military
operations. In all kinds of fields promising examples can be found. An interesting area
of experimenting is in particular the application of robots, AI and interconnectivity for
the elderly. Sooner than the surrounding countries, the Netherlands is facing ageing,
prompting a sense of urgency and a willingness to employ new technology.
There are also many other areas where the Netherlands may act as forerunner,
because the Netherlands is already strong in gaming; this could be extended to all
kinds of AI means that promote creativity and communication. Traffic, transport and
spatial planning are, because our roads are silting up, another area with problems that
can be solved and many opportunities.
22Another area of opportunity seen by them concerns converging technologies. This
phrase stands for all technological possibilities that arise from combining
developments in the NBIC basic disciplines (nano, bio, information and communication
technologies). Bringing together these areas is not only important for gene technology
and nano sciences, but also for robotics and AI systems; the views and insights from all
these areas as well as psychology, anthropology, philosophy and sociology are needed
to successfully develop robots and AI devices. Convergence also creates a strong
interaction between specific technologies and fundamental research. For innovations
and objectives in applied research create new questions and objectives in disciplinary
research.
An impediment to building up a good position is, as Mr Van Rij and Dr Klapwijk believe,
the fact that there is a gap in the Dutch and European systems between fundamental
research and commercial applications.
236. Technology and Democracy
The chapter of Mr Eschen in the collection of essays on the cluster Technology has
been extended by ‘and Democracy’. Below, you will not find any cluster information on
this theme, but a summary in bullet form of the chapter in hand. The contribution itself
did not contain any explicit list of recommendations, but different propositions and
suggestions which the reporter listed below. The verbatim text has been used as much
as possible; there may however be small editorial changes.
Summary
• The relationship between democracy and technology covers a wide area.
Although man has no trouble making himself dependable on technology, time
and again he also appears to succeed in reducing technology to what it actually
is: a tool.
• The growing complexity calls for more complex control measures. A society, a
culture, is however in the long run not up to ever increasing complexity.
• In a relatively small country one runs the risk of developing a national tunnel
view; a debate is needed on the possibilities and boundaries to managing the
relationship between democracy and technology.
• The central point is the idea that the future of the Netherlands depends on the
basis of the support that the citizens can and wish to form collectively.
Source: Fifty Years EU, the Year 2050 and the Horizon Scan Project;
http://www.horizonscan.nl/uploads/File/bv2050(4).pdf
Recommendations
Mr Eschen calls for attention for the problems of governance in a society facing a
growing imbalance on many areas of information, measured according to the extent of
proper, timely and understandable information and the gap between the public/user
and the knowledge specialist/developer. Knowledge management is a matter of
discussion, but also ignorance management is important because the growing amount
of non-knowledge leads to inadequate risk management. In addition, he is looking for
guarantees for the capacity-to-learn of politics and policymakers. He adopts a critical
24attitude as to the ability to criticise and doubt the own role by policymakers, politicians
and other social partners.
As a recommendation for a proper steering of technological developments, citizens
should adopt an active and alert attitude. Mr Eschen argues that the government and
citizens have wrongly considered themselves as market parties and are now acting
accordingly. More than ever, he states, all actors will also behave like citizens. In doing
so, the will to do so plays a role, but also the awareness of its necessity.
257. Economics: to a new world order – between
dream and nightmare
The chapter provided by Prof Rademaker in the collection of essays on the cluster
Economics was given as second title ‘to a new world order – between dream and
nightmare’. Below, you will find the cluster information on this theme and a summary
in bullet form of the chapter in hand. The contribution itself did not contain any explicit
list of recommendations, but different prepositions and suggestions were listed by the
reporter below. The verbatim text has been used as much as possible; there may be,
small editorial changes.
Cluster information
The political and economic world order is changing. The rise of new superpowers is
anticipated; Japan and Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC countries). Are we
entering the Century of Asia? In addition, we see tigers and larger and smaller
countries with a powerful, expanding economy, such as Taiwan, Singapore, Chile,
Oman, South-Korea, Thailand, South-Africa, Poland and Canada. The globalisation –
the ‘increasing integration and interdependency of societies through the exchange of
ideas, capital and goods’ – is expected to continue as well. Globalisation takes place in
various fields: the economy, the national culture and identity, the standards and
values. Trade flows between countries are growing more rapidly than the production of
individual national economies as a result of developments in ICT, cheap transport and
the subdivision of work processes. Social, economic and political conditions, such as
confidence in the financial system and liberalisation of the world trade, also influence
the globalisation process.
Summary
• The question is how a new world order can be consistent with the clash of
civilisations as described and expected by Huntington. First of all, it should be
pointed out that “order” does not mean that there can no longer be any tensions
or contrasts. Conflict control procedures have been put in place to steer these in
the proper direction and if possible to abolish them. Creating order often starts
with establishing where the differences and conflicts of interest lay – the adage
“agree where to disagree”.
• Contrasts may sometimes be reduced if they are considered in the light of a
greater common interest or problem. The world problems call for their set of
resolutions, which may also contribute to solving problems on a different level.
The climate change, for example, may bring together Muslims and Christians
which my help to reduce contrasts in other areas.
• By not focusing all the attention on the differences, but by emphasising the
coexistence and pointing to the necessity that cooperation is necessary for
solving a number of large global problems, conflicting forces are marginalised
and a basis is laid for a varied and variable world order.
26A View at Kiev (Ukraine) from one of the
towers of the Russian-Orthodox Monastery
‘Lavra’.
The EU is one of the Derain’s biggest trade
partners (doing some 32% of all trade).
(http://ec.europa.eu/comm/external_relations/
ukraine/intro/index.htm)
Whoever checked the news flashes before and
after the ‘Orange Revolution’ will have noted
that the Ukraine repeatedly spoke in favour of
becoming a full Member State Country of the
EU. The EU itself appears not to have specific
objections to that, as long as the Ukraine
meets the Accession Criteria. Russia perhaps
is not enthused by the prospect of having such
a big “western alley” at its South-western
border.
Source: BV/21052002/imm06.jpg
Recommendations
Prof Rademaker advocates a reorientation on our traditional world order that has
positive and negative effects on the functioning of our Dutch society. This concerns
two developments: globalisation and the creation of a new world order (governance
system). He leaves the empirical at some stage and enters the normative order. In a
world where there is so much attention for the Sachverhältnisse some attention for the
Wertverhältnisse looks appropriate. The globalisation process, he observes, is hardly
managed politically and seems to be difficult to steer anyway. Thus the protests of the
anti-globalists become a bit unreal on this point.
Since the publication of the first Report of the Club of Rome (1972) a number of
effective measures have been taken, and have been refrained from being taken. Many
of the global problems appear to be in particular of an economical and technical
nature, and it is often thought that the solutions are to be found in these fields.
Adjustment of our political doctrines and ethical standards is often a precondition to
arrive at a solution of the problem. Creating awareness in respect of a precarious
situation in which we find ourselves and changing the mentality and way of living of
world citizens is one of the major challenges of the twenty-first century. It calls for
vision and courage, not only from politicians but from all who are playing a role in the
political arena.
If we look at Europe (the Dutch and French ‘no’), Prof Rademaker observes in respect
of the European Convention that people were not aware that the convention’s central
theme was Unitate in Diversitate, unity in diversity, and that the subsidiarity principle
27took up an important place. Nor was it acknowledged that the current world problems
called more for a strong Europe than for a weakened form. He recommends arriving at
formulating a number of basic values or ideals for Europe that may also contribute to
those of the world at large: human dignity, human rights, respect and tolerance, social
quality and sustainability.
Contributing to solving world problems should be a set item on the agenda of the
European Commission. But it should also be considered a guiding principle for the
NGOs, the private sector and the individual citizens – actors who, as will be argued
below, are occupying an increasingly important role in the political arena.
The importance of governance is illustrated by Prof Rademaker on the basis of the food
problem. Materially, we are able to provide the growing world population with
sufficient food in the coming years, but politically and economically we cannot reach at
an equitable distribution. 800 million people or 20% of the world population are
starving today. Despite attempts to put these figures into perspective, he still believes
that the world is facing huge problems which will require the necessary adjustments in
the existing world order. The problems referred to are complex, interdependent, cross-
border and dynamic. This requires an appropriate administrative system that is also
complex, interdependent and dynamic. We should therefore abstain from involving a
super organisation or global government, as well as from advocating the anarchist free
market. What is necessary is a global administrative system or network that has a
great variety of organisations with a variable policy. Compare this with a rootstock2;
this is an organisation or system with a great zest for survival that is very flexible in
creating preconditions for survival. Such a self-organising system is steered at the
decentralised and the local levels, but the general interest, namely survival of the
system at large, is central. All participants in the network make contributions to the
common purpose, the survival or sustainability of our system, and are entitled to do so
in their own way, as long as they do not hinder the functioning of the other parts of the
network. The subsidiarity principle used within the European community fits into this
system. In a rootstock organisation, the different parts complement one another and
may even take over one another’s tasks if one of the parts falls out. This joint exercise
is only possible if there is a shared vision on the purpose: in our case, guaranteeing a
sustainable society.
In the light of the problems described and the possible set of solutions, a number of
suggestions for the global administrative system can be made. The United Nations is to
be reinforced. We could perform a more detailed study in order to reach a kind of
Social Economic Security Council. In the regular Security Council a seat should be
given to India and Brazil and in the longer term Europe is to take the seat of Great
Britain and France. The latter two will no appreciate this, but such adjustment is in
line with political reality.
The new set of solutions may also embed the role of NGOs, multinational companies
and other new networks between individuals within the private sector and use these in
2
The concept of "rootstock" was made familiar in organisational theory particular by the French philosophers Gilles Deleuze and
Félix Guattari. Herman van Gunsteren’s recent study (Vertrouwen in de democratie. Over de principes van zelforganisatie
(Confidence in democracy. On the principles of self-organisation), Van Gennep 2006) is in line with the view expressed in this
context with respect to a self-organising world order.
28the transfer of knowledge and capital to other countries to promote welfare and
employment.
Referring to the clash of civilisations as sketched and expected by Huntington, Prof
Rademaker argues that “order” does not mean that there will no longer be any tensions
or contrasts. He recommends the development of conflict control procedures to steer
these tensions and contrasts in the right direction and if possible to lift these.
298. Capitalize on Conflicts & Conflict
Management:
During the preliminary work in order to create a collection of essays, it was apparent
that two entirely different perspectives could be employed in this cluster. They had
some overlap as to the role and direction the Netherlands could take, but the
approaches in themes were so different that two authors were selected who each
would discuss one of the perspectives.
The chapter by Prof Dr Junne in the collection of essays on the cluster Conflicts was
given the title ‘Capitalise on Conflicts’. The second chapter by Ms Slootweg and Mr Te
Velde on conflicts was given the title: ‘Conflict management: export of mediation’.
Below, you will find the cluster information on this theme and of both contributions the
summaries in bullet form of the chapters in question. The authors have even included
explicit lists of recommendations in their respective texts.
Cluster information
In the future, conflict management will remain a core activity on all levels of
administration; from municipalities up to the level of the United Nations. This theme
focusing on conflicts is so wide that is can be approached in two different ways. First,
the future of the safety policy can be investigated internationally at a global level.
Secondly, developments of conflicts and problems can be found closer to home,
affecting individual people. How will we deal with those tensions in the year 2050? As a
small player on the world stage? And how will we cope at home? How will future human
beings tackle such matters? Today’s safety policy is not always very rational; it is often
fear-driven and focused on visibility in order to reassure the citizen.
Batavia Shipyard. Travelling the High
Seas, many disputes were settled by
canons in the past.
Source: MC set-
72157594243013336/DSC01452_Bavariawerf_Lel
ystad_15-02-2007
Effectiveness is considered in different ways. Within this cluster attention is paid to the
relation between conflicts and safety. Subjects such as globalisation, value changes,
common and new economic world orders are closely inspected.
Summary Conflicts I
Capitalize on conflicts (Prof Dr Junne)
A plea for a national approach, based on the role that the Netherlands could play in
conflicts and the role it could play based on its knowledge and experience:
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