Prospects for financial and Capital markets 1st quarter 2021 - Zurich, 04. January 2021
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Prospects for financial and
Capital markets
1st quarter 2021
Zurich, 04. January 2021
Foreword
The year 2020 was an eventful year that will the environment to remain challenging in the
be remembered by all. first quarter and to gradually improve from
the second quarter onwards, as vaccines are
At the beginning of 2020, the economic indi- not expected to have a sustained positive im-
cators still allowed for a cautiously optimistic pact until the second quarter of 2021. Until
economic assessment despite lower growth then, politicians will no doubt have to resort
expectations. At the time, we had identified a to familiar measures to control further flare-
number of risk factors for the economy, but ups in infection numbers. While most eco-
we had not anticipated a pandemic of this nomic forecasts do not expect significant in-
magnitude and the resulting consequences flation, we are currently assuming the rate will
for the global economy and society. The fis- be higher than expected. Furthermore, the
cal and monetary policy measures that fol- risk of a delayed wave of insolvencies does
lowed were extraordinary and far exceeded not seem to have been completely averted.
those of the financial crisis in terms of scope
and speed. Over the course of the year, fiscal We are rather optimistic for the equity mar-
policy continuously took over from monetary kets and expect returns above 5% for most re-
policy. Budget deficits reached unbelievably gions. We have taken into account the posi-
high levels in some countries and the total tive growth prospects for Asia by adding to
debt of households, companies and govern- this region and are currently slightly over-
ments has once again risen markedly. Central weight in the equity asset class. We remain
banks have increasingly had to place them- convinced of our overweight position in phys-
selves at the service of governments, which ical gold and think that our gold strategy is
raises questions about their independence. “spot-on”. Fixed-interest investments now of-
Interest rates are now firmly cemented at a fer virtually no return expectations. We prefer
record low, even in the US. inflation-linked bonds and focus on solid
credit quality. When selecting investments,
Financial markets have been characterised we stick to our guiding criteria of quality, li-
by exceptionally high volatility across all as- quidity and transparency.
set classes. Despite one of the most pro-
found economic downturns in recent history, Bank von Roll AG
equity markets quickly anticipated an eco- Bleicherweg 37
nomic recovery. The newly created money CH-8027 Zurich
further fuelled equity prices. The price of this
is a perceived disconnection from reality and
equity valuations last seen in the late 1990s.
Gold also performed very well during the year.
The economic estimates for the year 2021
are quite positive thanks to the record fast de-
velopment of vaccines. The Asian economies
in particular are likely to record the strongest
growth in the new year. Currently, we are as-
suming an economic development that is
slightly below consensus. We are expecting
Foreword 2
Strategic cornerstones - 2021
For the year 2021, our investment policy is guided by the following key points:
Overall, the economic outlook for the next 12 months has brightened considerably.
However, the pandemic remains a major factor of uncertainty and the vaccines will not
have a sustained positive effect until the second quarter of 2021. Due to this uncertain
Economy
forecast basis, we currently assume a positive economic development for 2021, how-
ever slightly below-consensus. We expect a persistently difficult environment in Q1 and
a gradual improvement from Q2 onwards. We expect the strongest growth in Asia. We
do not expect a return to the economic performance of 2019 for most regions in the
industrialised countries until 2022.
The focus in 2021 will continue to be on fiscal policy and thus debt is expected to con-
Monetary policy
tinue to rise. In our opinion, not too much should be expected from monetary policy in
2021. Monetary policy is likely to be supportive, reactive and asymmetric, but also in-
creasingly dirigiste. Interest rates are likely to remain at very low levels.
The inflation potential is enormous due to the ultra-expansive monetary policy and rec-
Inflation
ord high levels of debt. A pick-up in inflation will surprise the markets and the central
banks will accept an overshoot. Asset inflation is already in full swing. This could spill
over into the real economy.
We expect the following relative development of asset classes:
• Equities beat bonds
Markets
• Precious metals (gold and silver) and commodities beat bonds
• Equities, precious metals and commodities develop similarly
• Corporate bonds should perform slightly better than government bonds
Long-term drivers are intact and gold remains underrepresented in institutional investor
Gold
portfolios. Real interest rates should continue to fall and support the gold price. How-
ever, gold is one of the most volatile asset classes.
With the positive news on vaccines, we increased the equity allocation to slightly over-
weight during November. Equities remain more attractive than bonds. Should interest
Investment strategy
rates rise more than expected, the high equity valuations, especially in the US, could
turn-out to be a risk factor.
We remain convinced of our overweighting in gold. The price correction is likely to be
over.
Bonds offer hardly any earnings prospects. We remain underweighted, focusing on
solid credit quality and inflation-linked bonds.
We leave foreign currency risks at a relatively low level. Emerging market investments
in local currency are possible portfolio additions.
Strategic cornerstones - 2021 3
Strategic asset allocation
Balanced CHF
Asset Class
Liquidity 10%
Fixed Income 32%
Corporate Bonds BBB 17%
Inflation-Protected Government Bonds 15%
Highy Yield Bonds 0%
Equities 43%
Switzerland 11%
Europe 11%
USA 9%
Emerging Markets 5%
Gold Mines 7%
Precious Metals 15%
Currencies
CHF 80%
EUR 10%
USD 5%
Other Currencies 5%
in percent % 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Our priorities for the year 2021
• We are rather optimistic for equity markets. The relative attractiveness to bonds is
given, which is why we are slightly overweight equities.
• The favoured regions are emerging markets and Asia, where demographics, rising con-
sumption, an expected weaker USD and technology/digitisation can provide increased
positive momentum.
• Depending on progress in the fight against the pandemic, the economies in the Euro-
pean periphery could also experience above-average development.
• The infrastructure sector, which is likely to be driven by fiscal p olicy measures, contin-
ues to look positive. These include: basic materials, industrial metals, mechanical engi-
neering and capital goods as well as energy and data infrastructure ("cybersecurity").
• We are maintaining our overweight in gold and gold mining stocks.
• In view of the low interest rates and the lack of tailwind from interest rate cuts, bonds
offer hardly any earnings prospects. Solid credit quality and inflation-linked bonds are
preferred.
Risk factors for the year 2021
• COVID-19 vaccines are not effective, vaccine uptake is very modest, or a new strain of
the virus emerges that reverses progress.
• Major social tensions in the USA, political assassination.
• Insolvency phase in the context of the pandemic crisis, intensification of the debt cri-
sis. Related to this, an accelerated loss of confidence in paper money.
• Food shortages, rising prices of agricultural goods, distribution struggles .
• Large-scale cyberattacks with negative consequences for the internet.
• Stronger than expected economic development leads to an unexpected and rapid rise
in interest rates, which brings down the highly valued asset classes.
Strategic asset allocation 4
Economic environment
Vaccines brighten the outlook
Covid-19 - Major challenges in the short term, vaccines sooner than expected
The pandemic continues to hold the world in its grip.
Sharp rise in case numbers pro-
While the summer months were rather quiet on the
vokes new measures. Develop-
Covid-19 front, new infections rose sharply again over
ment of effective vaccines is a
the course of autumn, particularly in Europe and the
success. Logistics and ac-
United States. Previous record numbers from the
ceptance as challenges. Sustaina-
spring, which were determined on a comparatively less
ble improvement only from 2nd
precise basis, have been exceeded by far. This develop-
quarter 2021 onwards.
ment – a second respectively in the US even a third
wave – was to be expected, but was surprising in its scope. In order to get back control of the
situation, various governments again took measures, including so-called “hard lock-downs".
These measures have had some effect, but have not yet materialized to be as successful as in
the spring. This brings with it the danger of even stronger political exertion of influence. Large
regions of Asia have so far been spared a significant second wave.
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control / own illustration
In November, substantial progress was finally made in the development of effective vaccines.
Scientists succeeded earlier than commonly anticipated. This is the final piece of the puzzle in
the COVID-19 measures and rounds off the massive assistance from fiscal and monetary policy
as well as the targeted lock-downs and testing of the general population. The number of coun-
tries that have licensed at least one vaccine and started vaccination is increasing daily.
The next milestone is to organise efficient logistics in order to produce the vaccines in the re-
quired quantities and distribute them as quickly as possible. Another issue that should not be
underestimated will be convincing the Corona-weary population of the benefits of vaccination.
It is to be expected that the vaccines will not have a lasting positive effect on the broad popula-
tion until the second quarter of 2021 and that governments will therefore have to fall back on
the known instruments for the time being. Thus – even if the infection rates decline again over
Economic environment 5
the course of December and January due to the hard measures taken – an additional wave must
be expected in the coming spring.
Economy - Impressive third quarter, challenging fourth quarter
In the third quarter, the various regions around the world
After strong growth in Q3, rising
recorded impressive growth. This has to be noted posi-
Covid-19 numbers weigh on the
tively after the deep fall in the first and second quarter.
services sector again. Impact on
The fourth quarter is again much more challenging. The
economy is limited. Availability of
economy as a whole seems to be able to come to terms
vaccines taken up positively. Nev-
with the changing situation and has become more flex-
ertheless, rather cautious outlook
ible. Nevertheless, the second (or third) COVID 19 wave
for 2021.
will again leave clear traces. Especially the regions and
countries heavily depending on tourism or the entertain-
ment and restaurant industry will have to cope with another quarter of negative growth. The
important purchasing managers indices (PMI) reflect the development described. The manu-
facturing sector continues to be quite positive in terms of both level and dynamics and is devel-
oping favourably in almost all regions of the world. There are clearer differences in the develop-
ment of the service sector, where the countries in the Eurozone in particular had to accept major
setbacks due to the pandemic situation mentioned above. In the course of the fourth quarter,
Brexit, which had been pushed into the background by the pandemic, be came a pressing issue
again. Finally, the parties were able to get their act together and reach a "deal" after more than
4 years since the Brexit decision, thus avoiding the worst-case scenario of a hard Brexit.
Source: Refinitiv / own illustration
Unemployment is still significantly above the pre-pandemic level, but differs regionally due to
varying labour market policies. With new measures against the pandemic and delayed effects,
for example due to short-time working, unemployment is likely to rise until the second quarter
of 2021.
Economic estimates for 2021 are generally quite positive. Growth is seen as above average,
especially in Asia, followed by Europe. Due to the vague forecast basis with many elements of
uncertainty and risk factors, we currently assume a slightly below-consensus positive economic
development for 2021. We expect a persistently difficult environment in Q1 and a gradual im-
provement from Q2 onwards. We also expect the strongest growth in Asia. The positive risk is
Economic environment 6
higher-than-expected growth driven by pent-up consumption, a boom in private investment fa-
cilitated by the availability of state-supported bank loans and non-negligible government invest-
ment programmes in the area of sustainability ("Green New Deal").
Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Ever Higher Debt, Ever Higher Money Supply
Governments have reacted to the negative economic ef-
Fiscal and monetary policy were
fects of the pandemic – like rising unemployment, loss
less active after the spectacular
of income, company shut-downs, etc. – with enormous
first semester. However, the econ-
rescue packages. Furthermore, far-reaching investment
omy can rely on continued sup-
programmes have been adopted in Europe and we ex-
port. Fiscal policy remains in fo-
pect similar steps for the USA under the new Biden ad-
cus.
ministration. The already sky-high national debts will
therefore continue to rise. The central banks are supporting the governments in their plans, so
that monetary and fiscal policy are increasingly merging and the independence of the central
banks must be seriously questioned. At the US-Fed, the focus has also clearly shifted from mon-
etary stability to achieving full employment. Relevant data suggest that the US-Fed has pur-
chased very large packages of new govern-
ment debt in the year 2020, while foreign
investors have made only small purchases
at this stage. Domestic investors even
made record sales in the first quarter, which
had to be absorbed by the US-Fed as well to
prevent the credit markets from freezing.
The US Fed's activities can certainly be de-
scribed as direct financing of additional
government debt. The US-Fed's balance
sheet has reached a staggering record vol-
Source: US Fed / own illustration
ume of USD 7,000 billion.
During the third and at the beginning of the fourth quarter, the central banks were staying at the
sideline, observing the development of the pandemic and economic situation. They then be-
came somewhat more active again in line with the rising infection figures. Thus, at the Decem-
ber meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) was the first of the major central banks to adjust
the various monetary policy programmes to the significantly riskier economic environment. It is
striking that once again no changes were made to the negative key interest rates. The central
banks seem to be aware of the unfavourable effects of negative interest rates. The US-Fed com-
municated very similarly in its December meeting, but without making any significant adjust-
ments to its policy. The US-Fed is also in conflict with the US Treasury over the return of money
for unused rescue programmes. After some back and forth, the US government and parliament
seem to be able to agree on a new USD 900 billion package at the end of December.
Economic environment 7
In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank's for-
eign currency reserves attract a lot of attention.
They again rose strongly over the course of the
year. The development of the so-called Tar-
get2-balance of the German Bundesbank
shows an almost identical picture. Both statis-
tics are an expression of the same problem: if
one cannot (Germany) or does not want (Swit-
zerland) to let the exchange rate rise as a bal-
ancing instrument, the balance must be
achieved in some another form. In December,
Switzerland was added to the list of currency
manipulators defined by the US-Treasury. This decision did not come as a huge surprise. How-
ever, we do not expect any significant consequences from this decision.
The focus in 2021 will continue to be on fiscal policy and thus rising debt is to be expected. In
our view, not too much should be expected from monetary policy in 2021. Monetary policy is
likely to be supportive, reactive and asymmetric, but also increasingly dirigiste. Substantial ad-
ditional intervention and an even more expansionary monetary policy will only be implemented
in response to major market turbulence, especially in the credit markets. However, we do not
expect a shift to a restrictive monetary policy for a long time. The economy would have to send
clear signals that it is self-sustaining or inflation would have to rise well above the 2% target.
Consequently, interest rates should remain at very low levels for the time being. But, as the
example of Japan shows, central banks will not hesitate to use appropriate means to influence
the interest rate landscape in order to ensure the sustainability of government debt.
Financial and capital markets
Volatile fourth quarter
Financial and capital markets – elections in the USA and vaccines bring additional boost
The fourth quarter was a mirror for the development of
High volatility in the fourth quarter
the whole year. Hope and reality determine the opinions
with a price explosion in equities
of market participants while switching from one to the
in November. Lagging regions and
other. Liquidity spills into the markets and leaves them
sectors benefited. Safe havens
just as quickly. Performance is often made in a very
underperformed.
short time, only to remain in a sideways market after-
wards. One could also speak of "Covid-on" and "Covid-
off" markets. After a search for orientation from August to the end of October, November was a
pronounced "Covid-off" month with very significant price gains in risk assets. The outcome of
the US-elections and news on vaccines gave a boost to the markets. The previous winners,
which tend to have the character of safe havens, such as gold, the USD or technology stocks,
suffered from this development.
Financial and capital markets 8
Fixed Income
The general phenomenon of very low interest rates did not change much in the fourth quarter.
If one digs a little deeper, however, he can see interesting developments. In the USA, the yield
curve has steepened, mainly due to higher interest rates in the medium and long maturities (over
3 years). Since expected inflation de-
rived from inflation-protected bond
prices increased during the same pe-
riod, the higher interest rates must be
an expression of concerns about ris-
ing inflation in the USD area. For the
EUR, the yield curve also steepened
slightly, but distinctively differently.
Interest rates fell across all maturi-
ties, but most strongly at the so-
called short-end. This must be inter-
preted as a rather negative signal Source: Refinitiv / Own representation
against the background of the pan-
demic development and the higher risk of another quarter of negative growth. Interest rates in
China increased across all maturities and the yield curve normalised, signalling an overall
healthy economy. Switzerland's yield curve followed that of the Euro-area in a weakened form.
Credit spreads continued to narrow and are now only slightly above the lows seen in the year
2018. This led to a slight increase in the price of corporate bonds in the fourth quarter, while
long-dated government bonds from the USA fell quite significantly in price as a result of the
above described change in the yield curve. Inflation-linked bonds also showed a slightly positive
performance.
For 2021, we expect only minor changes in interest rates. Interest rates will remain cemented
at a very low level. If there are any interest rate hikes, they will tend to be at the long end due to
better-than-expected growth and/or rising inflation expectations. In combination with slightly
rising inflation figures, further falling real interest rates should also result in 2021. In corporate
bonds, credit spreads play an important role. We see a slight widening, although the develop-
ment is likely to differ strongly among the
sectors. Particularly in pandemic-prone sec-
tors from tourism or strongly consumption-
dependent segments, there could be a
stronger widening of credit risk premiums,
especially in the course of the first quarter.
Overall, it should be difficult to generate rea-
sonable returns with bonds in the year 2021.
Corporate bonds are likely to outperform
government bonds and inflation-linked
bonds belong in well-diversified portfolios, in
our view.
Financial and capital markets 9Equities
The stock markets were trapped in a stubborn and, as expected, volatile sideways market from
August to the end of October. Rising infection figures and the outlook for a very tight race for
the US presidency kept many investors from making new commitments. In November, the pic-
ture turned clearly positive
within only a number of days.
Markets were relieved that the
US elections produced a fairly
clear result and that the so-
called "blue wave" did not ma-
terialise for the time being.
Shortly afterwards, news of
progress on vaccines provided
an additional boost. Even more
liquidity flooded into the equity
markets. The best performers Source: Refinitiv / Own representation
during this phase were the re-
gions and sectors that had previously lagged behind. Some stocks achieved even gains in the
mid-double-digit range during this short time-span. There was also a pronounced sector rotation
from growth to cyclical value stocks.
Recently, the heavy momentum in stock issues in the USA has also been striking. "SPAC" is the
acronym of the hour and stands for "Special Purpose Acquisition Company". SPACs are not a
fundamentally new invention. What is new, however, is the extent to which these vehicles are
being used. Some of the new issues made in this way achieved spectacular increases in value
on the first day of trading. The picture may therefore be strongly reminiscent of the "wild" years
of the dot-com market at the end of the 1990s. So far,
SPAC "Special Purpose Acquisi-
the phenomenon has been limited mainly to the US-
tion Vehicle" is a publicly traded
market and companies from the "hot" segments of elec-
shell company whose purpose is
tromobility and social media. Critics say that hedge
to acquire a private company
funds in particular are cashing in on their private equity
within a limited period of time.
investments this way.
Over the course of December, the rising Covid-19 infection numbers and the clearly overbought
market situation weighed on the markets again, but did not lead to a correction, only to a side-
ways movement. The hope for additional rescue packages and support measures from fiscal
and monetary policy, the relief of a Brexit-deal as well as the view of expected growth in the
course of 2021 supported the markets despite some warning signals from the area of market
sentiment indicators.
Overall, we are rather optimistic about equity markets for the year 2021 and see returns of more
than 5%, with Switzerland and Europe expected to slightly underperform. In terms of corporate
earnings expectations, analysts assume the strongest growth in the cyclical consumer, basic
materials, industrials and information technology sectors, while earnings in the defensive utili-
ties, healthcare, real estate and non-cyclical consumer sectors could underperform. Energy is
Financial and capital markets 10in the middle of the pack. The favoured regions are emerging markets and Asia, where de-
mographics, rising consumption, an expected weaker USD and technology/digitisation may pro-
vide increased positive momentum. One can also find some lagging equity markets in this re-
gion (for example India or Indonesia). Depending on progress in the fight against the pandemic,
the tourism-heavy economies in the European periphery could also experience an above -aver-
age development. The entire infrastructure sector, which is likely to be driven by fiscal policy
measures, continues to be viewed positively by us. Sectors benefiting from this include basic
materials, industrial metals, mechanical engineering and capital goods, as well as the entire
theme around energy and data ("cybersecurity") infrastructure. There is no doubt, that valua-
tions must be viewed as challenging. This will be a drag and could even manifest itself as a
significant risk factor if interest rates do rise more significantly.
Precious metals and raw materials
Commodity prices recovered strongly during
the fourth quarter. The energy complex per-
formed best, followed by industrial metals and
food. As was the case throughout the year, the
cyclically sensitive copper performed very
strongly, benefiting from additional demand
from the battery sector and the switch to elec-
tromobility. But even platinum, which under-
performed for a long time, was given new life.
Overall, a rather optimistic economic scenario
and higher inflation expectations can be de-
rived from the development of commodities.
This development has carried over to the stock performance of commodity companies.
The precious metals – gold and silver – entered a sideways market in the course of August.
Gold experienced a correction of around 15% after exceeding the USD 2,000 per ounce mark.
We had expected a so-called retest of the previous highs from the year 2012 in the area of USD
1820 after the break-out. The somewhat
more difficult market phase was caused by a
significant decline in investment demand, so
the same factor that had previously helped
driving prices higher. Precious metals – and
the related gold mining stocks – are still
among the best performing asset classes for
the year 2020, despite this recent healthy cor-
rection. In our view, the above described re-
test was successfully confirmed by the latest
positive price movement in gold, which
should provide a basis for further advances.
The fundamental price drivers such as the exorbitant increase in debt and money supply, the
outlook for further declines in real interest rates and a potential loss of confidence in paper
money remain.
Financial and capital markets 11Gold should be able to profit from rising inflation and thus further falling real interest rates in
the year 2021. But even in the environment of a possible debt crisis, gold should be sought after
as a credit-free financial asset. We remain invested in gold with a healthy overweight. Silver
appears even more attractive due to its stronger industrial use. Commodities should perform
with an appreciation of over 5% over the next year. For the oil price (Brent), we see a trading
range of USD 45-55.
Currencies
The weak USD continues to be the topic of intense discussions on the currency markets. The
USD-index, which measures the USD against a basket of various foreign currencies, seems to
have broken the upward trend that has lasted since the end of the financial crisis. We had ex-
pected this development, as the US twin deficit
in particular argues against a strengthening
USD. The outcome of the US-elections has led
to further weakness, as larger programmes
can be expected under a Biden administration.
If the re-election of two senators in the state of
Georgia on 5.1.2021 goes in favour of the Dem-
ocrats, the Senate majority would finally tip and
the "blue wave" would become reality. Further-
more, US investors seem to be increasingly
looking again at foreign stock markets, as they
are often cheaper than the US home market,
have catch-up potential and currency gains are possible. These investments are likely to be
made without hedging foreign currencies, putting additional pressure on the USD. The EUR re-
cently benefited from lower risk aversion and tended to strengthen against the USD. The CHF
moved sideways against the EUR and thus also tended to strengthen against the USD. The AUD
should also be mentioned positively, as it was able to resist even the strength of the EUR. Un-
doubtedly among the winners was Bitcoin,
which more than doubled in the fourth quar-
ter. The acceptance of this most important
of the cryptocurrencies among investors is
growing. The lively interest meets a still
comparatively low supply. However, the
price movements must still be character-
ised as strongly herd-driven and oriented to-
wards simple marks (for example USD
20,000). However, the success of Bitcoin is
probably based on the same reasons as is
applicable for gold. Bitcoin is a child of the
financial crisis, when people started to think more deeply about trust in paper currencies.
Currency forecasts in the market (source: Refinitiv) point to higher prices of the more cyclical
currencies (EUR, SEK) and lower quotes of the "safe-haven" currencies (USD, CHF) in the year
2021. We assume most currencies will trade around current levels. We see a range of 0.87-0.92
Financial and capital markets 12for the USD to CHF, 1.07-1.09 for the EUR to CHF and 1.19-1.25 for the USD to EUR. We are
positive on emerging market currencies.
Graphics and tables
Key economic expectations for the year 2021
Source: IMF, ECB, US Fed, KOF, own estimates
Graphics and tables 13Global debt as % of GDP Inflation
Spending and tax reliefs Loans and guarantees
Source: Blackrock
US Dollar
Record new issuance of US-government
debt (purchased by central bank)
Outstanding US-treasureies: change vs previous year in bn USD
Gold
Graphics and tables 14Equities
Market capitalization of global equities. As high 25 largest US-growth stock/US-GDP, largest
as in January 2018 (in million USD) extreme of all times.
Source: cnn.com
Graphics and tables 15Market Overview 2020
So urce: Reuters per 31.12.2020 / Equity M arkets in lo cal currency
Economic Indicators per Close Close prev. Year YTD
University o f M ichigan Co nsumer Sentiment Index 30.09.2020 79.0 99.3 -20.3
ISM M anufacturing P M I SA 30.11.2020 57.5 47.8 9.7
ISM No n-M anufacturing NM I 30.11.2020 55.9 54.9 1.0
US Leading Indicato r Index 30.11.2020 109.1 111.4 -2.3
ZEW Euro zo ne Expectatio n o f Eco no mic Gro wth 31.12.2020 54.4 11.2 43.2
Ifo P an Germany B usiness Climate 31.12.2020 92.8 92.4 0.4
S&P Co reLo gic Case-Shiller 20-City Co mp. Ho me P rice NSA Index
31.10.2020 235.8 218.7 17.1
Currency vs. CHF per Close Close prev. Year YTD
EUR 31.12.2020 1.0807 1.0852 -0.4%
USD 31.12.2020 0.8851 0.9678 -8.5%
GB P 31.12.2020 1.2102 1.2828 -5.7%
SEK 31.12.2020 10.7400 10.3300 +4.0%
JP Y 31.12.2020 0.8571 0.8908 -3.8%
A UD 31.12.2020 0.6806 0.6789 +0.3%
Currency vs. EUR YTD
USD 31.12.2020 1.2217 1.1215 +8.9%
CHF 31.12.2020 0.9251 0.9217 +0.4%
GB P 31.12.2020 1.1189 1.1829 -5.4%
SEK 31.12.2020 0.0995 0.0953 +4.4%
JP Y 31.12.2020 0.7926 0.8208 -3.4%
A UD 31.12.2020 0.6298 0.6261 +0.6%
Equity Markets in local currency per Close Close prev. Year YTD
M SCI Wo rld Index (USD) 31.12.2020 2’ 690.0 2’ 358.5 +14.1%
M SCI Emerging M arkets Index (USD) 31.12.2020 1’ 291.3 1’ 114.7 +15.8%
Do w Jo nes (USD) 31.12.2020 30’ 606.5 28’ 538.4 +7.2%
S&P 500 (USD) 31.12.2020 3’ 756.1 3’ 230.8 +16.3%
Nasdaq Co mpo site (USD) 31.12.2020 12’ 888.3 8’ 972.6 +43.6%
Russell 3000 (USD) 31.12.2020 2’ 248.4 1’ 892.2 +18.8%
B razil B OVESP A (B RL) 30.12.2020 119’ 017.2 118’ 573.1 +0.4%
DA X (EUR) 30.12.2020 13’ 718.8 13’ 385.9 +2.5%
Euro Sto xx50 (EUR) 31.12.2020 3’ 552.6 3’ 745.2 -5.1%
IB EX 35 (EUR) 31.12.2020 8’ 073.7 9’ 549.2 -15.5%
SP I (CHF) 30.12.2020 13’ 327.9 12’ 938.7 +3.0%
SM I (CHF) 30.12.2020 10’ 703.5 10’ 699.8 +0.0%
FTSE (GB P ) 31.12.2020 6’ 460.5 7’ 542.4 -14.3%
RTS (USD) 31.12.2020 1’ 427.1 1’ 564.2 -8.8%
Nikkei 225 (JP Y) 31.12.2020 27’ 258.4 23’ 204.9 +17.5%
China Shanghai Co mp. (CYN) 31.12.2020 3’ 473.1 3’ 050.1 +13.9%
India B SE 30 (INR) 31.12.2020 47’ 751.3 41’ 253.7 +15.8%
A ustralia S&P /A SX200 (A UD) 31.12.2020 6’ 587.1 6’ 684.1 -1.5%
Interest Rates and Bond Markets per Close Close prev. Year YTD
3-M o nth Euribo r 31.12.2020 -0.55% -0.38% -0.16%
10-Years Germany Generic Go vernment 31.12.2020 -0.58% -0.19% -0.39%
10-Years EUR Swap 31.12.2020 -0.27% 0.21% -0.48%
3-M o nth ICE USD-Libo r 31.12.2020 0.24% 1.91% -1.67%
10-Years US Generic Go vernment 31.12.2020 0.91% 1.91% -1.00%
10-Years USD Swap 31.12.2020 0.92% 1.87% -0.95%
3-M o nth ICE CHF-Libo r 31.12.2020 -0.76% -0.69% -0.08%
10-Years Switzerland Generic Go vernment 31.12.2020 -0.49% -0.56% 0.08%
10-Years CHF Swap 31.12.2020 -0.29% -0.12% -0.17%
IB OXX Euro Go vernment 3-5 Jahre 31.12.2020 212.5 209.7 +1.3%
REX P erfo rmance Index (German Go vernment B o nds) 30.12.2020 499.2 492.6 +1.4%
IB OXX Euro Co rpo rates 3-5 Jahre 31.12.2020 244.2 237.7 +2.7%
Swiss B o nd Index A A A -B B B 31.12.2020 144.5 144.2 +0.2%
Emerging M arkets Hard Currency in USD (ETF) 31.12.2020 115.9 114.6 +1.2%
Emerging M arkets Lo cal Currency in USD (ETF) 31.12.2020 45.3 43.9 +3.1%
CS High Yield Index II 31.12.2020 1’ 498.4 1’ 411.4 +6.2%
Alternative Investments per Close Close prev. Year YTD
VIX-Index (Vo latility S&P 500) 31.12.2020 22.8 13.8 +65.1%
RICI Co mmo dity Index (To tal Return, USD) 31.12.2020 178.3 196.6 -9.3%
Go ld in USD/Oz 31.12.2020 1’ 896.5 1’ 517.0 +25.0%
Go ld in CHF/kg 31.12.2020 1’ 680.0 1’ 468.2 +14.4%
Go ld in EUR/Oz 31.12.2020 1’ 553.7 1’ 352.8 +14.8%
Silver in USD/Oz 31.12.2020 26.4 17.8 +47.8%
Crude Oil B rent USD (Future) 31.12.2020 51.8 66.0 -21.5%
Co pper (Future) 31.12.2020 351.4 279.4 +25.8%
B altic Dry Index 24.12.2020 1’ 366.0 976.0 +40.0%
HFRX Glo bal Hedge Fund Index (USD) 30.12.2020 1’ 377.9 1’ 292.5 +6.6%
LP X50 (P rivate Equity) 31.12.2020 2’ 913.0 2’ 870.7 +1.5%
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