Quantitative Human Health Risk Assessment of Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) from Petrochemical Industries
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Quantitative Human Health Risk Assessment of
Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) from Petrochemical
Industries
Mohamed Y. Omar
Arab academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport
Usama A. Faramawy
Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency
Maram El-Nadry ( maram.osama@alexu.edu.eg )
Alexandria University
Article
Keywords: Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM), Protective Action Criteria
(PACs), Emergency Response Planning Guidelines (ERPGs), Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres
(ALOHA), Air Dispersion modeling, Fire modeling, Climate action (SDG13)
Posted Date: January 10th, 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2436144/v1
License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Read Full License
Page 1/16
Abstract
Sustainable Development Goal 13 (SDG 13) is about climate action and is one of 17 SDGs established by
the United Nations General Assembly in 2015. The official mission statement of this goal is to "Take
urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts and focusing on tackling climate change.
According to the most recent report on Sustainable Development Goal 13, rising greenhouse gas
concentrations, more frequent and extreme weather events, and rising sea levels have caused global
temperatures to rise by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. To reduce emissions and prepare for climate
change, immediate action is necessary. Comprehensive risk assessment and management require
complete information. However, it is not always possible to gather information using a probabilistic or
quantitative risk assessment (QRA). This study concentrated on the quantitative assessment of the risks
that might result from a vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) release accidentally as a result of various
activities during production and handling operations in petrochemical industries. ALOHA (Areal Locations
of Hazardous Atmospheres) is employed to calculate the rate of release and total amount of Vinyl
Chloride Monomer released from various potential leaking expected sources through a 1.0-inch orifice
from a polymerization reactor in the PVC production and its effect on human health.
1. Introduction
Assessment of health risks associated with contaminated sites is a current global concern (1). According
to reports, 30% of industrial and mining areas are contaminated (2) so the evaluation of the health risks
associated with contaminated industrial land has received a lot of attention.
SDG-13, Climate Action, aims to prepare low-carbon development plans and adapt to climate change by
mitigating negative effects and limiting the temperature rise to 1.5° by the end of this century. Limiting
the negative effects of climate change on human society depends on investing in adaptation. (3).
One of the most significant economic forces, both globally and locally, is the petrochemical industry,
which supplies raw materials to a variety of sectors, including the automotive, agricultural, and medical
industries. The petrochemical industry, however, includes a wide range of methods for handling, storing,
and using dangerous materials, making it one of the riskiest ones. The most common types of accidents
in the petrochemical sector include transport spills, toxic material pipe leaks, explosions, and fires (4).
Petrochemical industries have been identified as potentially significant sources of a variety of chemical
substances with regard to their environmental emissions (5–7), Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) plastics are
produced primarily using vinyl chloride monomer (VCM). High temperatures make VCM highly unstable
and flammable. VCM is also a synthetic substance that does not occur in nature. (8).
Regarding health effects, VCM is reported to be easily absorbed through the respiratory system causing
bronchial irritation, drowsiness, central nervous system (CNS) impairment, unconsciousness, and even
death at high doses (9, 10). VCM was classified as a human carcinogen (Group 1) (Genotoxicity in Vinyl
Chloride-Exposed Workers and Its Implication for Occupational Exposure Limit, by the IARC. And United
Page 2/16
States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) also pointed out the toxicological effects of VCM. The
US EPA had classified VCM as human carcinogen (11). Previous reports have shown that exposure to
VCM causes liver damage, liver enlargement, hepatocyte necrosis, and cirrhosis in humans. Moreover, an
impact of VCM was found on different kinds of liver cancer, such as primary hemangiosarcoma and
hepatic vascular endothelial cell tumors (12, 13).
1.1 Hazard Identification
VCM is an odorless, colorless gas. Simple to ignite. liquefied gas shipped under one's own vapour
pressure. By evaporative cooling, contact with the unconfined liquid can result in frostbite. Leaks could be
vapour or liquid. Air is lighter than vapours. by the displacement of air, asphyxiate (Table 1). The
containers may violently rupture and shoot into the air when exposed to fire or extreme heat for an
extended period of time. Possibly carcinogenic. used to create chemicals such as plastics and adhesives
(14).
Table 1
Physicochemical properties of VCM.
Property Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM)
CAS Number1 75-01-4
DOT Hazard Label Flammable Gas
Odor and Color A colorless gas with a sweet odor
Molecular Formula C2H3Cl
Molecular Weight 62.5
Melting Point -245 ° F
Boiling Point 7 ° F at 760 mm Hg
Vapor Pressure 3877.5 mm Hg
Specific Gravity 0.969 at 8.6 ° F
Water Solubility Slightly soluble
IDLH A potential occupational carcinogen
1 Cas Number: Chemical Abstracts Service Registry Number.
1.2. The Exposure Limits Parameters
1.2.1. The Protective Action Criteria (PACs)
Page 3/16
Protective Action Criteria (PACs) are crucial elements for planning and responding to uncontrolled
releases of hazardous chemicals, according to the Emergency Management Issues Special Interest Group
(EMI SIG) in the United States (Table 2). The information needed to assess chemical release events and
determine the most effective course of action is provided by these criteria along with exposure estimates
(15).
Table 2
The PACs Values for Vinyl Chloride Monomer
PAC-1 PAC-2 PAC-3
Conc. (ppm) 250 ppm 1200 ppm 4800 ppm
1.2.2. The Exposure Limits Parameter: Emergency
Response Planning Guidelines (ERPGs)
The Emergency Response Planning Guidelines (ERPGs) are standards for air concentrations for single
agent exposures. According to https://www.aiha.org/get-involved/aiha-guideline-foundation/erpgs, they
are meant to be used as tools to evaluate the suitability of accident prevention and emergency response
plans, including transportation emergency planning, community emergency response plans, and incident
prevention and mitigation (16).
ERPGs are exposure standards created to anticipate the health effects of exposure to specific chemical
concentrations in the air (Table 3).
Table 3
The ERPGs Values for Vinyl Chloride Monomer
ERPG-1 ERPG-2 ERPG-3
Conc. (ppm) 500 ppm 5000 ppm 20000 ppm
1.3. The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA)
The QRA is a tried-and-true method for evaluating the risks associated with industrial activities and
contrasting them with the risks associated with routine activities. A successful management cycle
includes many steps, including QRA. This phase of the project design process is crucial. Ensure the
creation of a sound plan for subsequent safeguarding activities by beginning with an accurate inventory
and data (17, 18).
The primary goal of this study is to quantitatively assess the risks that could result from a vinyl chloride
monomer (VCM) release that could occur accidentally as a result of various production and handling
operations.
In this study, the release of VCM from a polymerization reactor in the PVC production unit in
petrochemical industries has been evaluated for its potential effects on human health based on risk.
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2. Materials And Methods
2.1. Modeling of prevailing weather conditions in the study
area (wind distribution modeling).
Meteorological Model MM5V3, which is produced by The Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State/National
Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5V3), is used to model current weather
conditions as the meteorological inputs to the air quality model
(19).
A limited-area, non-hydrostatic, terrain-following sigma-coordinate model called MM5V3 is used to
simulate or forecast atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale and regional scales. It was created as a
community mesoscale model at Pennsylvania State and NCAR and is constantly being enhanced by
contributions from users at various academic institutions and government research facilities.
(http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/newwebpage/mm5-home.html).
2.2. The Meteorological Data Sources
The World Meteorological Organization states that there are numerous regional centres located
throughout the world. Each of these centres gathers observed meteorological data from neighbouring
nations and sends it to global centres, which then gather all data for the entire world and send it to the
regional ones (20). The modeling started at 01/01/2019 (12:00:00 AM) and ended by 31/12/2021
(11:59:00 PM).
The area covered by the 36 km wide regional modelling domain extends from latitudes 22°N to 35°N and
longitudes 22.0°E to 38.0°E, as shown in (Fig. 1). The nested domain resolution is 12 km, and it covers
the region between 27.5° E and 32° E longitudes and 29° N and 33° N latitudes, as shown in Fig. 1. There
are 32 levels of vertical resolution for both models between the ground and 100HPa (about 16 km above
it).
Modeling the leakage of the liquids from a 1-inch orifice diameter to calculate the emission / leakage
rates.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) jointly develop Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) (21).
ALOHA is a computer programme made for emergency responders and planners to simulate chemical
releases. It can simulate various fire and explosion scenarios as well as how a toxic cloud might disperse
following a chemical release (22). The Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) release rate and total amount
released from the various Potential Leaking Expected Sources are estimated using the ALOHA model
using a 1.0-inch orifice.
Page 5/162.4. Air dispersion modeling of the VCM from the Potential
Leaking Source:
Dispersion of Air Pollution The mathematical simulation of how air pollutants spread out in the
surrounding atmosphere is known as modelling. It is carried out using algorithms that simulate pollutant
dispersion and computer programmes that resolve mathematical equations (23).
The American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) is a
steady-state plume model that treats both surface and elevated sources as well as both simple and
complicated topography. It is based on planetary boundary layer turbulence structure and scaling
assumptions (24).
3. Results And Discussion
3.1. The Meteorological Data Outputs
Based on the meteorological model (MM5V3) outputs:
The average temperature value is 21.1OC
The Wind Directions % Frequency Distribution for 2019:2021 period at the project location shows
that Northwestern winds 28.48%, the Northern winds 18.95% and the Western winds 16.00% of the
year’s hours (Fig. 2).
The most probable prevailing wind direction is from Northwest (28.48%) that means, in case of
chemical release, the Southeast area will be affected by the highest concentrations with max.
probability of 28.48%).
3.2. Modeling of VCM leakage:
Leakage from short pipe or valve in Reactor (vertical cylindrical tank), the chemical escaped as a mixture
of gas and aerosol (two phase flow) (Fig. 5).
Tank Diameter: 3.81meters Tank Length: 7.07 meters
Tank Volume: 80.6 cubic meters
Tank contains liquid Internal Temperature: 55° C
Chemical Mass in Tank: 61.663 kg Tank is 90% full
Circular Opening Diameter: 1 inches with 50 centimeters opening from tank bottom
Max Average Sustained Release Rate: 266 kg/min
The maximum distances for the Vinyl Chloride Monomer plum were estimated based on the different
concentrations of the exposure limits (PACs & ERPGs) (Fig. 3,4) which were tabulated in Tables 4 & 5
respectively.
Page 6/16Table 4
Maximum distances of the instantaneous release of the Vinyl Chloride
Monomer according to the PACs exposure limits
Source PAC-1 PAC-2 PAC-3
VCM Conc. ppm 250 1200 4800
Maximum Polymerization Reactor 523 173 86
Distance (m)
Table 5
Maximum distances of the instantaneous release of the Vinyl Chloride Monomer
according to the ERPGs exposure limits
Source ERPG-1 ERPG-2 ERPG-3
VCM Conc. ppm 500 5000 20000
Maximum Polymerization Reactor 300 78 44
Distance (m)
3.3. Modeling of the thermal radiation as a result of fire
from Potential Leaking Source:
3.3.1. Thermal Radiation Levels of Concern
A threshold level of thermal radiation is known as a Level of Concern (LOC), which is typically the level
above which a risk may be present (Table 6). Three default LOC values will be suggested by ALOHA when
you run a fire scenario (25). The default threat zones are created by ALOHA using three threshold values,
which are expressed in kW/m2 (kilowatts per square meter) (Table 8).
Table 6
The Thermal Radiation Level of Concern and
its Effects
Thermal radiation Effects
(kW/ m2) (Within 60 sec)
10.0 Potentially lethal
5.0 Second-degree burns
2.0 Pain
Page 7/16The Levels of Concern are 10, 5 & 2 kW/ m2 and their corresponding effects within 60 seconds are
Potentially Lethal, Second-degree burns & Pain respectively.
3.3.2. Fire Modeling of the Vinyl Chloride Monomer
Forms highly toxic combustion products like carbon monoxide, hydrogen chloride, and phosgene, which
pose special risks to human health (Table 7).
Container may explode if exposed to fire (Table 8). Due to the fact that gas is heavier than air, it can travel
a great distance before igniting and flashing back (Fig. 6) (26) .
Table 7
Flammability of VCM
Hazard Value Description
4 Burns readily. Rapidly or completely vaporizes at atmospheric pressure and
normal ambient temperature.
Flammability
Table 8
Fire Modeling and Thermal radiation Scenarios of the Vinyl Chloride Monomer
Scenario Leak from a Circular Opening Diameter 1 in from a short pipe or valve in vertical
cylindrical tank (Reactor)
(SOURCE
STRENGTH) Tank Diameter: 3.81 m Tank Length: 7.07 m
Tank Volume: 80.6 m3
Tank contains liquid Internal Temp.: 55° C
Chemical Mass in Tank: 61,663 km Tank is 90% full
The flammable chemical is burning and escaped from the tank and burned as a
jet fire
Burn Rate: 266 kg/min Flame Length: 13 meters
Thermal Distance (m)
radiation
10.0 (kW / m2) 12
5.0 (kW / m2) 18
2.0 (kW / m2) 29
4. Conclusions
Page 8/16In this study, QRA has been used to assess the potential risks to human health from the release of VCM
from a polymerization reactor in a unit that makes PVC for the petrochemical industry. The paper is
based on the most recent industrial technologies, not only to improve the quality of VCM products but
also to provide a protected and safe environment for the workers through the implementation of the most
recent environmental management systems, to ensure ongoing compliance with environmental
regulations and laws, to support the Sustainable Development Goals 2030, and to maximize the role of
social responsibility towards the residents in the area.
Declarations
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, M.O. and U.F.; methodology, M.O. and U.F.; software, M.O. and
M.E.; validation, U.F. and M.E.; formal analysis, M.O and U.F.; investigation, M.O. and M.E.; resources, U.F.
and M.O.; data curation, M.E.; writing—original draft preparation, M.O. and M.E.; writing—review and
editing, M.E.; visualization, M.O. and U.F.; supervision, M.O.
Data Availability Statement: All data generated or analysed during this study are included in this
published article [and its supplementary information files].
Conflicts of Interest: “The authors declare no conflict of interest.”
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Figures
Figure 1
The Meteorological Modeling Boundaries.
Page 11/16Figure 2
The Wind Frequency Distribution (The Wind Rose) for the period 2019:2021
Page 12/16Figure 3
Spatial Distribution of the VCM Concentration (PACs - ppm) Near VCM Polymerization Reactor
Page 13/16Figure 4
Spatial Distribution of the VCM Concentration (ERPGs - ppm) Near VCM Polymerization Reactor
Page 14/16Figure 5
VCM Concentration Plumes (PACs - ppm) Near Polymerization Reactor
Page 15/16Figure 6
Fire Modeling of VCM near Polymerization Reactor
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