Regional Skills Assessment Glasgow College Region March 2022 - Skills Development ...
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Regional Skills Assessment Glasgow College Region March 2022
Contents
Introduction
The Context of Scotland’s Labour Market …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….5
Regional Economy
The Regional Economy: At a glance …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..7
The Glasgow College Region Economy …………………………………………………………..…………………………………………………………..8
Regional Labour Market
Employment: Employment in the Glasgow College Region ……………………………………………………………………………………………….12
Other Labour Market Indicators: Current Job Postings …………………………………………………………………………………………………….22
Impact of COVID-19: At a glance …………………………………………………….………………………….……………………………………………23
The impact of COVID-19 in the Glasgow College Region ……………………………………………………………………………………….…………24
Regional Requirement
Future Demand for Skills ………………………………………………………………………………..…………………………………………………….29
Future Demand for Skills – Job Openings in the mid-term (2021-2024) …………………………………………………………………………………30
Future Demand for Skills – Job Openings in the long-term (2024-2031) ………………………………………………………………………….……..33
March Spotlight: Skills Shortages, Gaps and Challenges
Scottish Employer Skills Survey (2020)………………………………………………………...…………………………………………………………….37
Regional Insight…….………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….42
References………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………44Regional Skills Assessments
First launched in 2014, the Regional Skills RSAs also include forecast data that has been The RSA Data Matrix supplements this report and data
Assessments (RSAs) provide a robust evidence base commissioned through Oxford Economics. Caveats need on SDS products and services can be accessed from
to support partners in strategic skills investment to be applied when using forecast data. The Technical Publications and Statistics section on our corporate
planning. They have evolved over time based on an Note1 provides full detail on this, but broadly it should be website.
independent review carried out in 2015 and continuous noted that forecasts are based on what we know now and
feedback from partners. include past and present trends projected into the future. Finally, in the sections which follow, the numbers and
Their value is in identifying likely directions of travel rather figures in the body of the text are rounded for ease of
To ensure an inclusive approach to their development, than predicting exact figures. The more disaggregated reference and readability and therefore may differ
dissemination and utilisation, RSAs are produced by they become, especially at smaller geographical units, the slightly from other publications.
Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with less reliable they are likely to be. Standard occupational
the Glasgow College Region Enterprise, Scottish classifications (SOC) and standard industrial This RSA report is for the Glasgow College Region,
Enterprise, Scottish Government, the Scottish Funding classifications (SIC) are used to define occupations and which covers the Glasgow City, East Renfrewshire and
Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities industries. East Dunbartonshire local authorities.
Economic Development Group.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have useful SIC 2
In this March release we report on strategic drivers, the and SOC3 hierarchy tools that can be used to understand
economy, the impact of COVID-19, labour market the classifications in more detail.
requirement, supply of people and an update on SDS
regional action. Our March spotlight feature In addition, we provide analysis by Key Sector. Key
is on the Scottish Employer Skills Survey. Sectors are central to our Skills Investment Planning
approach. Each Key Sector has a tailored Skills
RSAs include the use of published data sets. Investment Plan (SIP) which gives a picture of the
Inevitably, when using published data there is a economic and labour market situation, trends in skills and
time lag but the data contained is the most up to date qualification supply and employers’ perspectives on the
available at the time of writing. In response to COVID- skills issues affecting the sector. Regional SIPs have also
19 we include more data derived from administrative been developed. SIPs and RSIPs are available on the
sources where possible as time lags with this data are, SDS website.4 Sector Skills Assessments are also
in general, shorter. However, we still rely mostly on available which provide updated Labour Market Insight for
data from the core labour market surveys. the Key Sectors.Introduction
The Context for Scotland’s Labour Market
COVID-19 has hit Scotland’s economy hard, exacerbating a number of pre-existing issues and challenges. In addition to the drivers listed here, the emergence of complex
challenges such as labour shortages, supply chain disruption and inflationary pressures could impact Scotland’s future course.5 Global security issues heightened by the conflict
in Ukraine have the potential to cause further disruption, in particular to energy markets and costs. The development of fit-for-purpose skills has an important role in supporting
continued economic recovery and inclusive growth. An effective skills system helps support and attract inward investment, increase productivity and tackle inequality and
deprivation.6
The Economy and Demographic Equality and Automation Climate Change
Productivity Change Inclusive Growth
The Scottish Government’s focus Advances in technological The Scottish Government has set
At the time of writing, the Scottish As with many economies in the
on Fair Work remains, supporting developments continue unabated 2045 as the target for achieving a
Fiscal Commission (SFC) forecast developed world, Scotland’s
‘growth that combines increases in and these are changing the world net zero carbon economy. The
that Scotland's economy will grow population is ageing. By 2045, the
prosperity with greater equity, of work. In Scotland around 46% 2021 Energy Position Statement14
by 2.4% in 2022-23. The SFC also number of people of pensionable
creates opportunities for all and of jobs have high potential for ahead of COP26 cemented
suggest that longer-term scarring age in Scotland is expected to
distributes the dividends of automation, some 1.2m jobs.10 Scottish Government priorities.
to the economy from the pandemic increase by 20.6% (205,800
increased prosperity fairly’.7 Many jobs are expected to evolve The labour market will be affected
could mean that trend GDP at the people), whilst the working-age
rather than disappear, for example by changes to climate change
start of 2025 is forecast to remain population is projected to decline
COVID-19 has had an uneven skilled machine operatives rather legislation and consumer
2% lower than their pre-pandemic by 2.4% (84,400 people). This
impact on some groups in society than manual labour. behaviours as the economy
forecast.7 suggests the possibility for a
including young people, older moves towards greater
tighter labour market in future and
workers, women, disabled people, There will also be the creation of sustainability.
Measuring productivity during the an increasing dependency ratio.5
ethnic minority groups, low paid new high-quality jobs and
pandemic has been challenging, opportunities for more flexible ‘Green jobs’ are central to the
Based on population projections, and low income households.8.
but at a high level, variance in working, expedited by the government’s plans for recovery.
productivity performance is the Glasgow College Region’s
pandemic. Demand for green jobs (and green
expected across sectors, and in dependency ratio will be 49% in
skills) is expected to increase
turn regions.8 2043, compared to Scotland’s
rapidly as a result of policy and
60%.10
legislative drivers and consumer
choice. The area is well placed to
take advantage of this opportunity.
Brexit
Prior to the pandemic, Brexit was a key source of uncertainty, and this created downwards pressure across productivity, business investment, retail sales and trade. The number of EU
workers in Scotland declined due to reduced in-migration and/or increased return migration. Ongoing Brexit concerns, and COVID-19 considerations, create heightened uncertainty
regarding the supply of migrant labour from the EU and further afield.15 The Glasgow College Region is less exposed to reductions in EU exports, when compared to Scotland as a whole.
In 2019, EU citizens were 6% of all employees, the same when compared to 6% for Scotland as a whole. 16Regional Economy17
The Regional Economy: At a glance
Gross Value Added (GVA) Resilience and Recovery
Total Glasgow College Region GVA 2021:
£24,925m and 17.0% of total Scottish output The pandemic has had a profound negative impact on Scotland’s wellbeing,
particularly in terms of health, the economy and fair work. This has brought further
From 2009-2019, GVA in the Glasgow College Region: impacts on already marginalised communities, further exacerbating inequalities.
increased by 15.8% or £3,463m
Existing inequalities face potential challenges as new forms of disadvantage may
Mid-term forecast average annual growth (2021-2024): emerge. For example, increasing reliance on technology, accelerated by the
Glasgow College Region: 3.3% pandemic, may bring new opportunities as well as risks of excluding certain groups
Scotland: 3.0% where technology is not as accessible.
United Kingdom: 3.3%
Establishing a wellbeing economy18 remains a top priority for the Scottish
Longer-term forecast average annual growth (2024-2031): Government. This involves creating an inclusive and sustainable economy whilst
Glasgow College Region: 1.7% also promoting prosperity and resilience. Wellbeing is a key aspect of the Scottish
Scotland: 1.3% Government’s 2021-22 Programme for Government.19 Scotland is a founding
United Kingdom: 1.5% member of the Wellbeing Economy Governments (WEGo), where members
collaborate to utilise expert advice on delivering a wellbeing economy. Previous
discussions included sustainable tourism, inclusive growth, child poverty and
Productivity wellbeing budgeting.20
Glasgow College Region productivity 2021: The Scottish Government’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation (NSET)
£50,500, in Scotland it was £53,000 sets out ambitions for Scotland to become Fairer, Wealthier and Greener, with
people at the heart of a wellbeing economy.21
Mid-term forecast productivity (2024):
Glasgow College Region: £53,100 In the RSA we, as of yet, do not include any measures of the wellbeing economy
Scotland: £55,700 alongside the traditional monetary measures of economic performance. This is an
area of development, and a number of other resources are available to support
Long-term forecast productivity (2031): partners and stakeholders with this policy area:
Glasgow College Region: £57,200 • Wellbeing Economy Alliance
Scotland: £60,300 • Scotland's Centre for Regional Inclusive GrowthThe Glasgow College Region Economy
Economic output Past Economic Performance
Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an
area and is an indicator of the economy’s health.
Prior to the pandemic, the region’s economic growth rate was lower
GVA is not an all-encompassing measure, it simply tells us about economic output. than Scotland’s. On average the Glasgow College Region’s
Beyond the economic measures, the aim of achieving inclusive economic growth is a economy grew by 1.5 per cent each year (2009-2019).
priority for Scotland as noted in a speech by the First Minister to the Wellbeing Economy
Alliance: “Scotland is redefining what it means to be a successful nation by focusing on the
broader wellbeing of the population as well as the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the
country." 22 From 2019 to 2020, the region’s economy contracted sharply as
measures were taken across the UK to limit the spread of COVID-19.
Current Economic Performance
In 2021, GVA was forecast to be £24,925m in the Glasgow College Region, 17.0 per cent
of Scotland’s output (£146,920m).
The contraction of economic output in the Glasgow College Region
This share of GVA ranks the Glasgow College Region in the top third of RSA regions for was estimated to be 9.6 per cent between 2019 and 2020, which was
GVA contribution to the Scottish economy. The highest value sectors in the regional the same as what occurred across Scotland.
economy were forecast to be:
Human Health and Social Work Activities:
£3,497m The pandemic had a substantial impact on the UK economy, with
GVA falling by 9.7 per cent in 2020.
Real Estate Activities*:
£2,698m
Financial and Insurance
Activities:
£2,676m
*The GVA output from the Real Estate sector is however inflated by owner-occupier imputed rent.
Imputed rent captures, economically, the value of the service homeowners are providing to themselves
by owning and living in their own homeFuture Economic Performance
Whilst it is possible to forecast what could happen, Figure 1: Forecast average annual GVA change by Industry (%) (2021-2031), the Glasgow College Region
there are a multitude of factors that can influence what
materialises. The greatest contributing factor to a Accommodation and food service activities 4.5%
region’s economic recovery will be their sectoral
footprint, however other place-based factors will also Other service activities 4.0%
influence their recovery. Administrative and support service activities 4.0%
In the mid-term it is forecast that Scottish GVA will Information and communication 3.0%
return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, with growth of Arts, entertainment and recreation 2.9%
8.2 per cent in 2021 and 5.4 per cent in 2022. Overall,
GVA growth in Scotland is forecast to average 1.8 per Real estate activities 2.8%
cent per year between 2021 and 2031, 0.2 percentage Professional, scientific and technical activities 2.4%
points slower than the UK average.
Construction 2.4%
Between 2021 and 2031, the largest contributions to Transportation and storage 2.3%
growth across Scotland will come from Human Health
and Social Work (adding close to 0.1 percentage Education 1.9%
points per year to overall GVA growth in Scotland) and Human health and social work activities 1.8%
Real Estate Activities (just over 0.1 percentage
points). This reflects the size of these sectors as well Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and… 1.8%
as levels of growth. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 1.6%
As shown in Figure 1, Accommodation and food Financial and insurance activities 1.5%
service activities is forecast to have the largest annual Manufacturing 1.1%
GVA growth in the Glasgow College Region from
2021-2031, at 4.5 per cent. It is followed by Other Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation… 0.9%
Service Activities (4.0 per cent) and Administrative Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.8%
and Support Service Activities (4.0 per cent).
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 0.5%
Data for absolute change is available in the RSA Data Mining and quarrying -1.6%
Matrix.Productivity Current Productivity Mid-Term Productivity Long-Term Productivity
Productivity is the measure of goods and services produced per unit of Based on forecasts as of October Based on forecasts as of October Based on forecasts as of October
labour input. COVID-19 has impacted on productivity across the UK in 2021, productivity in the Glasgow 2021, productivity in the region in 2021, productivity in the region in
several ways and it has created new challenges in how productivity is College Region was forecast to the mid-term (2021-2024) is the long-term (2024-2031) is
accurately measured. The Office for National Statistics (ONS)23 be £50,500. This was below the expected to grow by 1.7 per cent expected to grow by 1.1 per cent
highlight that measures based on output per job or worker are average for Scotland of £53,000. on average each year. on average each year. At a high-
expected to experience large declines, whereas falls in output per level, variance in productivity
hour could be less pronounced. The region’s productivity is This is the same as the forecast performance is anticipated across
largely driven by the sectoral mix Scottish growth rate over the same regions due to their sectoral mix
Interventions like the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), that makes up its economy. period. and place-based factors.
which ended on 30th September 2021, impacted on the underpinning
data. Under this scheme individuals on furlough were categorised as
being employed but working no hours. If a worker or jobs-based
productivity measure is used, the input (one worker or job) remains the Figure 2: Productivity (2021)
same but output declines as no work was taking place. Whereas if
hours worked was used both input and output would decline. This £62,700
demonstrates the possible divergences observed in productivity £57,200 £55,800
measures over the past two years. £53,200 £53,200
£51,500 £51,000 £50,600 £50,500 £50,300
£49,700
£47,800 £47,300 £46,900
£46,000
Caution is needed when interpreting the productivity data presented
and it must be considered in the context of other data and insight.
Despite the challenges, it remains advisable to report on productivity
as it is a measure that can help us to understand regional variances
and challenges.
The Oxford Economics forecasts of productivity shown here have
been calculated by dividing total regional GVA by total regional
employment (measured by jobs). We use this data as it provides a
forecast figure to help estimate the impact the pandemic has had on
productivity and longer-term trajectories post-pandemic. An equivalent
Tayside
West Lothian
Aberdeen City
Forth Valley
Dumfries and
West Region
Scottish Borders
Edinburgh, East
Highlands and
Fife
Ayrshire
Lanarkshire
Rural Scotland
Glasgow College
South of Scotland
and Midlothians
based on hours worked is not available.
Galloway
and Shire
Islands
RegionRegional Labour Market24 • Employment • Wider Labour Market Indicators
Employment: Employment in the Glasgow College Region
Current Employment Across Scotland, and within the region, more people Figure 3: Employment in Scotland by region (2021) (people)
Total employment in the Glasgow College Region worked full-time than part-time, 400,500 people (77.9
(measured by people) was estimated to be 514,300 in per cent) were in full-time jobs in the Glasgow College
2021, 19.7 per cent of Scottish employment. Region in 2021. This was a similar percentage share Rural Scotland 700,500
compared to Scotland where 74.2 per cent of people
According to the Annual Population Survey, between were in full-time employment. Glasgow College Region 514,300
October 2020 and September 2021, the employment
rate for the working-age population (aged 16-64) in the Part-time employment accounted for a lower Edinburgh, East and
407,700
Midlothians
region was 70.3 per cent, which was below the rate for percentage share of employment in the region
Scotland (72.9 per cent).25 compared to Scotland, 22.1 per cent compared to 25.8 Aberdeen City and Shire 283,000
per cent. Overall, there were 113,800 people in part-
The region’s overall employment rate means that time employment in the Glasgow College Region. Lanarkshire 260,500
approximately three in ten of the region’s working age
population were unemployed (4.3 per cent) or Highlands and Islands 233,400
economically inactive (26.6 per cent). Inactivity
includes people who are studying, retired or looking Tayside 193,500
after their family or home.26
West Region 164,500
Fife 145,600
Ayrshire 138,800
Forth Valley 119,000
South of Scotland 114,200
West Lothian 79,800
Dumfries and Galloway 62,200
Scottish Borders 52,000
Note: data will not sum to 100% as unemployment rate is
based only on economically active populationIn the Glasgow College Region, the largest employing Figure 4: Employment by Industry and share of total employment (2021), the Glasgow College Region
sectors, and their estimated regional share of
Human health activities 49,500, 9.6%
employment, in 2021 were (see Figure 4):
Education 48,900, 9.5%
Human Health Activities: Retail trade, except of motor vehicles 44,100, 8.6%
9.6 per cent
Public administration and defence 30,300, 5.9%
Food and beverage service activities 27,600, 5.4%
Education: Social work activities 25,400, 4.9%
9.5 per cent Services to buildings and landscape 20,500, 4.0%
Legal and accounting activities 14,400, 2.8%
Retail Trade, Except of Motor Vehicles: Specialised construction activities 13,500, 2.6%
8.6 per cent Employment activities 13,000, 2.5%
Architectural and engineering 12,500, 2.4%
Financial service activities 12,100, 2.3%
Public Administration and Defence:
5.9 per cent Real estate activities 10,800, 2.1%
Computer programming, consultancy 10,300, 2.0%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles 10,200, 2.0%
Food and Beverage Service Activities:
Office administrative, office support 10,000, 1.9%
5.4 per cent
Construction of buildings 9,800, 1.9%
Residential care activities 9,700, 1.9%
Activities auxiliary to financial services 9,300, 1.8%
Activities of head offices 8,100, 1.6%Of the key sectors, Health and Social Care, was Figure 5: Employment by Key Sector and share of total employment, the Glasgow College Region (2021)
estimated to be the largest in the Glasgow College
Region in 2021. The sector accounted for 84,600
people. Financial and Business Services was the Health and social care 84,600, 16.4%
second largest with a total of 55,500 people (see
Figure 5).
Financial and business services 55,500, 10.8%
Large sectors are an important source of jobs.
However, regions also have sectoral strengths that Construction 36,400, 7.1%
make them unique. This means that smaller sectors
can be more important than their size suggests, as
Tourism 32,500, 6.3%
they are more concentrated in the region compared to
the national average.
Creative industries 26,800, 5.2%
In the Glasgow College Region, Motion picture, video
and television was the greatest specialism, with the Engineering 23,300, 4.5%
percentage of employment in this sector 3 times the
Scottish average. Other sectors that had above
ICT/digital 17,100, 3.3%
average concentrations in the Glasgow College Region
included:
• Advertising and Market Research (2.8 times as Child-day care activities 8,400, 1.6%
concentrated),
• Security and Investigation Activities (2.7 times as Energy 6,200, 1.2%
concentrated),
• Publishing Activities (2.1 times as concentrated),
and Food and drink 5,800, 1.1%
• Employment Activities (2.0 times as concentrated).
Life sciences 2,400, 0.5%
Chemical sciences 500, 0.1%Sectors tell us about the industries that people work in, Figure 6: Employment by Occupation and share of total employment, the Glasgow College Region (2021)
and occupations provide insight on the type of jobs
people do. In 2021, 263,400 employed people (51.2
per cent) in the Glasgow College Region were in Administrative Occupations 48,800, 9.5%
‘higher level’ occupations, 25.4 per cent were in ‘mid-
level’ occupations and 23.4 per cent were in ‘lower
Elementary Occupations: Clerical and Services
level’ occupations. The occupational structure of the related
45,600, 8.9%
Glasgow College Region was different to Scotland.
Compared to Scotland, the region had a
Business and Public Service Associate
higher percentage of the workforce in higher level 44,000, 8.6%
Professionals
occupations and a lower percentage of the workforce
in mid- level occupations. Scotland had a greater
percentage of the workforce in lower-level Business and Public Service Professionals 41,400, 8.1%
occupations.
Science and Technology Professionals 38,700, 7.5%
A detailed look at the occupational structure shows that
the largest occupations in the region in 2021 were
Sales Occupations 34,300, 6.7%
estimated to be (see Figure 6):
Administrative Occupations: 9.5 per cent
Corporate Managers 33,100, 6.4%
Elementary Occupations: Clerical and Services
Related: 8.9 per cent Caring Personal Service Occupations 28,700, 5.6%
Business and Public Service Associate
Professionals: 8.6 per cent Health Professionals 26,600, 5.2%
Business and Public Service Professionals: 8.1
per cent Teaching and Research Professionals 24,000, 4.7%
Science and Technology Professionals: 7.5 per
centPast Employment Combining the change from 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to However, growth is forecast to have occurred in sectors
Pre-COVID-19, employment in the region had 2021, employment declines were observed in 10 of the 19 that had increased demand as a result of the pandemic.
increased by 13.5 per cent from 2009 to 2019. There industry sectors in the Glasgow College Region (see The number of people estimated to be working in the
were 61,600 more people in employment in 2019 Figure 7). There were substantial job losses in region’s Human Health and Social Work sector
compared to 2009. The percentage of growth within Accommodation and Food Services as employment increased by 3,700 and Professional, Scientific and
the region was more than the 5.9 per cent growth declined by 4,600, which was a loss of 16.5 per cent of the Technical Activities increased by 3,000 people.
observed across Scotland over the same time period. sector’s workforce.
From 2019 to 2020 the number of people employed in Figure 7: Employment change by Industry, the Glasgow College Region
the region was estimated to have increased by 300,
from 519,500 to 519,800. This was an increase of 0.1 Declining Sectors Employment change Employment change Employment change
per cent, compared to a 1.2 per cent decline across 2009-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021
Scotland.
Employment contracted further across Scotland and in Accommodation and Food Services 10,600 4,200 -400
the region from 2020 to 2021. These losses occurred Information and Communication 10,800 -1,500 -1,100
when income support schemes came to an end. A
decrease of 5,500 people in work is estimated to have Wholesale and Retail Trade 3,900 -2,100 -100
occurred from 2020 to 2021 in the Glasgow College
Region , which is larger than the contraction from 2019 Manufacturing -2,700 -700 -700
to 2020. Overall, employment is estimated to have
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 2,100 -1,000 -400
declined by 5,200 from 2019 to 2021 in the region.
Administration and Support Services 8,400 0 -1,100
Construction -300 -800 -200
Growth Sectors Employment change Employment change Employment change
2009-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021
Human Health and Social Work 9,400 2,900 800
Professional, Scientific and Technical 2,800 4,100 -1,100
Education 10,500 1,600 -600The employment forecast for the local authorities within
Employment Forecast the Glasgow College Region shows a consistent
In the mid-term (2021-2024) the number of people in outlook.
employment is forecast to grow by 15,200 in the region.
This growth would fully replace jobs lost as a result of Over the longer term, Glasgow City is forecast to grow
the pandemic. by 0.5 per cent on average each year, and East
Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire by 0.3 per cent.
For Scotland as a whole, it is forecast to be 2023 when
the number of people in employment reaches and then
surpasses 2019 employment levels. The region’s
employment recovery is forecast to be faster, with 2019 Figure 8: Forecast Employment (2019-2031), the Glasgow College Region (people)
levels forecast to be reached by 2022.
Over the longer term (2024-2031) employment within 546,700
544,200
the region is forecast to increase. In 2031, it is forecast 541,800
538,200 539,500
that there will be 17,200 more people in employment 536,300
533,100
compared to 2024. Across Scotland the number of
529,500
people in employment is forecast to increase. 526,500
521,500
519,500 519,800
The level of employment contraction in the region
equates to an average annual rate of 0.5 per cent over 514,300
the longer term. For comparison, Scotland’s forecast
growth rate is 0.4 per cent.
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031Although strong employment growth is forecast in the
mid-term in the Glasgow College Region, sectors will Figure 9: Forecast Employment Change by Industry (2021-2024), the Glasgow College Region (people)
have varying performance. The greatest employment
growth is forecast in Administrative and Support Service Administrative and support service activities 2,900
Activities, with 2,900 more people expected to be Human health and social work activities 2,900
working in the sector by 2024 compared to 2021. Other
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and
sectors forecast to have growth over the mid-term 2,000
motorcycles
forecast period include Human Health and Social Work
Activities (2,900 people), Wholesale and Retail Trade Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,800
(2,000 people), Professional, Scientific and Technical Information and communication 1,600
Activities (1,800 people) and Information and
Communication (1,600 people). Accommodation and food service activities 1,300
Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,200
Not all sectors in the region are forecast to grow in the
mid-term. Manufacturing is the sector forecast to have Construction 1,100
the greatest employment contraction from 2021 to 2024.
During the forecast period a decline of 900 people in Other service activities 900
employment is anticipated. This reflects the general
Education 600
trend of more capital intensive and higher value-added
activity in the sector, which requires less labour- Transportation and storage 200
intensive methods (see Figure 9). The Public
Administration and Defence; Compulsory Social Real estate activities 200
Security sector is forecast to have a decline of 400 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0
people over the same period of time.
Mining and quarrying 0
Water supply; sewerage, waste management and
0
remediation activities
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply -100
Financial and insurance activities -200
Public administration and defence; compulsory social
-400
security
Manufacturing -900Over the longer term, and similar to the mid-term,
sectors are expected to have varied outlooks. Figure 10: Forecast Employment Change by Industry (2024-2031), the Glasgow College Region (people)
The Glasgow College Region ’s Human Health and
Social Work Activities sector is forecast to have the Human health and social work activities 7,600
greatest absolute growth. From 2024 to 2031 the Administrative and support service activities 6,100
number of people employed in this sector is forecast to
increase by 7,600. Other sectors forecast to have Professional, scientific and technical activities 4,700
growth over the longer-term forecast period are Construction 2,000
Administrative and Support Service Activities (6,100
people), Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,300
(4,700 people), Construction (2,000 people) and Arts,
Education 800
Entertainment and Recreation (1,300 people). Growth in
Human Health and Social Work Activities is driven by Other service activities 600
Scotland’s ageing population, along with the aim to
Real estate activities 600
protect the provision of frontline services.
Accommodation and food service activities 100
The mid-term contraction in the Manufacturing sector is
forecast to continue over the longer term as the Mining and quarrying 0
adoption of new technologies and production methods Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0
continues and the sector produces more but with fewer
workers. The sector with the greatest contraction is Water supply; sewerage, waste management and… -200
forecast to be Manufacturing (see Figure 10). Transportation and storage -200
Information and communication -200
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and… -300
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply -300
Financial and insurance activities -700
Public administration and defence; compulsory social… -1,500
Manufacturing
-3,200Similar to sectors, occupations have varying outlooks. In
the mid-term Corporate Managers is forecast to Figure 11: Forecast Employment Change by Occupation (2021-2024), the Glasgow College Region
experience the greatest employment increase in the
Glasgow College Region from 2021 to 2024 (of 2,000 Corporate Managers 2,000
workers). Growth in this occupation is closely related to Business and Public Service Professionals 1,700
the forecast rise in employment by sector. An additional Business and Public Service Associate Professionals 1,500
1,700 workers are expected to be required in Business
Science and Technology Professionals 1,400
and Public Service Professionals. Other occupations
anticipated to have an increase that is relatively large for Caring Personal Service Occupations 1,300
the region include: Elementary Occupations: Clerical and Services related 1,100
Health Professionals 1,100
Science and Technology Professionals: Culture, Media and Sports Occupations 1,000
1,400 people
Managers / Proprietors in agriculture and services 700
Caring Personal Service Occupations: Leisure and Other Personal Service Occupations 600
1,300 people Skilled Construction and Building Trades 400
Sales Occupations 400
Elementary Occupations: Clerical and Services Administrative Occupations 300
Related
Transport and Mobile Machine Drivers and Operatives 300
1,100 people
Customer Service Occupations 300
Protective Service Occupations are likely to contract Health and Social Welfare Associate Professionals 300
over the mid-term (-300 people) (see Figure 11). Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades 300
Teaching and Research Professionals 300
Science and Technology Associate Professionals 200
Skilled Metal and Electrical Trades 200
Elementary Occupations: Trades, Plant and Storage related 0
Skilled Agricultural Trades 0
Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 0
Secretarial and Related Occupations -100
Protective Service Occupations -300Over the longer term, in the Glasgow College
Region the greatest growth is forecast to be in Figure 12: Forecast Employment Change by Occupation (2024-2031), the Glasgow College Region
Business and Public Service Professionals with an
additional 2,900 workers. This will be closely
followed by Corporate Managers (2,900 people), Business and Public Service Professionals 2,900
Caring Personal Service Occupations (2,900 Corporate Managers 2,900
people), Health Professionals (2,800 people) and
Caring Personal Service Occupations 2,900
Business and Public Service Associate
Health Professionals 2,800
Professionals (2,100 people). Growth in these roles
reflect the relatively strong performance in business Business and Public Service Associate Professionals 2,100
services employment and the uplift in spending and Science and Technology Professionals 1,800
recruitment in the health sector. Culture, Media and Sports Occupations 1,300
Managers / Proprietors in agriculture and services 800
Occupations likely to have the greatest contractions Health and Social Welfare Associate Professionals 700
over the longer-term are Sales Occupations (-900 Skilled Construction and Building Trades 600
people), Secretarial and Related Occupations (-800
Transport and Mobile Machine Drivers and Operatives 600
people), Protective Service Occupations (-700
people), Administrative Occupations (-500 people) Customer Service Occupations 500
and Process, Plant and Machine Operatives (-400 Teaching and Research Professionals 500
people) (see Figure 12). Elementary Occupations: Clerical and Services related 300
Leisure and Other Personal Service Occupations 300
There will also be changes in the types of roles Science and Technology Associate Professionals 200
workers undertake within sectors, as new ways of Skilled Agricultural Trades 0
working and technologies are introduced to the
Elementary Occupations: Trades, Plant and Storage related -100
workplace. This supports growth in IT and
Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades -200
technological-based roles across a broad range of
sectors, from manufacturing to retail to professional Skilled Metal and Electrical Trades -300
services – so not just in the digital sector. Process, Plant and Machine Operatives -400
Administrative Occupations -500
Protective Service Occupations -700
Secretarial and Related Occupations -800
Sales Occupations -900Other Labour Market Indicators: Current Job Postings
Figure 13: Job Postings by Occupation (February 2021 – January 2022),
Current Job Postings in the Glasgow College Region 27 the Glasgow College Region
A source of real-time labour market information is data on online jobs postings. It provides a useful
barometer for the activity of the jobs market alongside other insight. COVID-19 has had a substantial
Programmers and software… 6,492
impact on the volume of job postings across Scotland. We report monthly on the latest national data in
our COVID-19 Labour Market Insights Report. Nurses 5,728
Other administrative occupations n.e.c. 5,312
Sales related occupations n.e.c. 4,634
Number of job postings from February 1st, 2021 to January 31st, 2022 were: Customer service occupations n.e.c. 3,772
149,000, 26.4% of all job postings in Scotland
Care workers and home carers 3,429
Managers and proprietors in other… 2,951
134.9% more than previous 12-month period
Chartered and certified accountants 2,511
Human resources and industrial… 2,485
IT business analysts, architects and… 2,477
Within the region the locations with the The most requested specialised skills were:
Management consultants and business… 2,440
most jobs advertised were:
Kitchen and catering assistants 2,340
Marketing and sales directors 2,115
Glasgow Customer Service
Book-keepers, payroll managers and… 2,060
143,600 postings 19,400 postings
IT user support technicians 1,829
Business and financial project… 1,720
Kirkintilloch Teamwork/Collaboration
Cleaners and domestics 1,690
1,100 postings 14,800 postings
Van drivers 1,673
Engineering professionals n.e.c. 1,662
Bishopbriggs Sales Information technology and… 1,619
600 postings 9,500 postings Nursing auxiliaries and assistants 1,610
Sales and retail assistants 1,605
Marketing associate professionals 1,596
Financial managers and directors 1,507
Chefs 1,464Impact of COVID-19: At a glance
Furloughed Jobs in the Glasgow College Region Redundancies
PACE information provision (individuals):
Jobs furloughed at 30th September 2021:
15,200, 18.8% of Scotland’s furloughed workforce Location 2019/20 2020/21 1st April 2021-
31st Jan 2022
Glasgow College 1,323 3,852 736
Jobs furloughed by gender: Sectors with largest number of furloughed jobs:
Region
Accommodation and Food Services: Scotland 11,189 34,222 5,784
7,100 3,300
Wholesale and Retail Trade: PACE information provision (employer sites):
2,300
8,000 Location 2019/20 2020/21 1st April 2021-
31st Jan 2022
Professional, Scientific and Technical:
1,400 Glasgow College 57 114 27
Female Male Region
Scotland 498 1,009 184
Number of jobs furloughed by local authority:
Modern Apprenticeship redundancies:
Glasgow City: 11,400 East Dunbartonshire: 1,900 East Renfrewshire: 1,900
Glasgow College Region: Scotland
Females: 5,300 Females: 900 Females: 1,000
Q3 2020/21: 123 Q3 2020/21: 834
Males: 6,100 Males: 900 Males: 900
Q3 2021/22: 20 Q3 2021/22: 194
*Please note that full redundancy data is not available for the region in 2020/21 and 2021/22 due
to disclosure control for some local authorities.Impact of COVID-19: At a glance
Unemployment October 2019 to September 2020, and October 2020 to Universal Credit claims in the Glasgow College Region:
September 2021 in the Glasgow College Region: 82,200 82,900 83,300 83,200 83,000 82,500 81,900 81,700 80,400 79,700 79,200 78,900
78,700 79,800 80,500 80,100 82,100
76,500 81,200
73,400
Unemployment 16+ Unemployment 16-24 61,100
41,100 42,700
38,600
19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21
13,900 17,900 6,200 4,100* January February March April May June July August September October November December
2020 2021
3.4% 4.3% 10.1% 7.4%
Since March 2020, across Scotland the number of Universal Credit claimants has
increased by 185,300, from 264,100 to 449,400 in December 2021.
Claimant Count claims in the Glasgow College Region:
Unemployment October 2019 to September 2020, and October 2020 to
43,600
September 2021 in Scotland: 35,800
41,100 41,200
42,900 42,600
40,800 41,200 40,700
40,200 41,100 41,300 40,500
38,400
36,000 35,400
Unemployment 16+ Unemployment 16-24 21,800 22,200 22,500
34,300
32,000 30,500 29,700 28,800
19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21
99,800 113,300 38,200 33,900 January February March April May June July August September October November December
2020 2021
3.6% 4.2% 11.5% 10.4%
Since March 2020, across Scotland the number of Claimant Count claimants has
increased by 23,200, from 114,700 to 137,900 in December 2021.
Please note that Claimant Count data has not been seasonally adjusted.First published in 2020, our series of COVID-19 Labour The sectors with the largest number of jobs furloughed in the Trends in Furloughed Jobs
Market Insights explore traditional and new sources of Glasgow College Region as of 30th September were: Time series data to 30th September 2021 was only
data and evidence to understand the impact of the available at Scotland level. As shown at Figure 14, the
pandemic on the labour market. In this section we Accommodation and Food Service: 3,300 jobs number of furloughed employments in Scotland peaked
replicate as far as possible the COVID-19 Insights for at 736,500 on 30th June 2020. This fell by 73.5 per cent
the Glasgow College Region and include analysis to to a low of 195,200 on 31st October 2020. However, the
demonstrate how the impact in the region compares to Wholesale and Retail: 2,300 jobs introduction of a second lockdown saw this nearly
Scotland. double, to 373,000 on 31st January 2021. Reflecting the
loosening of restrictions, from 31st January to 30th April
Furloughed Jobs Professional, Scientific and Technical: 1,400 jobs 2021 the number of furloughed jobs fell by 103,200 or
The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) ended 27.7 per cent
on 30th September 2021. It was a vital support
mechanism for businesses affected by the pandemic, The number of furloughed jobs continued to fall into the
helping them to retain and continue paying their The sectoral profile of furlough in the region was broadly the
summer of 2021, down to 117,300 by 31st July 2021, a
employees. Early indications suggested that 9 in 10 same as Scotland.
decrease of 56.5% since 30th April 2021. By the end of
people in the UK who were supported by the CJRS in the CJRS, the number of furloughed jobs had fallen to
September 2021 were in work in October 2021. Across Scotland more male employments were furloughed
80,800, a decline of 31.1% since 31st July 2021, or
However, there is evidence to suggest that than female employments, 41,800 compared with 39,000 at
36,500 in actual numbers.
redundancies in Scotland increased in the three 30th September 2021. Whilst earlier in the pandemic there
months to November 2021. were more furloughed female employments, male
employments were the most furloughed in the last few
Jobs Furloughed28 months of the CJRS. The gender breakdown in the region is:
At 30th September 2021, there were 15,180 jobs
Figure 14: Furloughed jobs (June 2020 – September
furloughed in the Glasgow College Region , accounting Female employments: 2021), Scotland
for 4.4 per cent of eligible employments for furlough in 7,200 jobs,
736,500
the region and 18.8 per cent of Scotland’s furloughed 4.1 per cent take up rate
workforce (80,800 jobs).
373,000
Male employments:
195,200 269,800
This furlough take up rate compares with 3.0 per cent 8,200 jobs,
in Scotland and 4.0 per cent in the UK. 7.5 per cent take up rate 117,300
80,800
30th June 31st 31st 30th April 31st July 30th
2020 October January 2021 2021 September
2020 2021 2021Redundancies The sectors with the greatest information provision for
Whilst the CJRS played a significant role in preventing In addition, fluctuations throughout the year are expected. Due to the
individuals in the Glasgow College Region in 2020/21
mass redundancies, data does suggest that lower number of MA starts, comparisons with the same point year,
were:
redundancies increased as a result of the pandemic. should be treated with caution.
Accommodation and Wholesale and
Food Services: 1,173 Retail: 922 By Q3 2021/22, 194 MAs have been made redundant in Scotland.
Partnership Action for Continuing Employment
For comparison, 834 MAs had been made redundant by Q3
(PACE)29 2020/21.
PACE is a partnership of 24 organisations, led by SDS, Administrative and Human Health and
which was set up by the Scottish Government to Support Services: Social Work: 267 In the Glasgow College Region, 20 MAs had been made redundant
support businesses and individuals facing redundancy. 409 by Q3 2021/22, compared with 123 by Q3 2020/21. From Q3
PACE aims to minimise the risk of redundancy before it 2020/21 to Q3 2021/22 the number of MA redundancies in the
happens. These sectors are slightly different to those with the
region decreased by 83.7 per cent, compared with 76.7 per cent
greatest information provision to individuals across
across Scotland.
In the financial year 2020/21, PACE provided Scotland.
information to 34,222 individuals and 1,009 employer The occupational groupings with the largest number of MA
sites across Scotland. For comparison, 11,189 From 1st April 2021 to 31st January 2022, PACE
redundancies in Scotland as at Q3 2021/22 were:
individuals and 498 employer sites were supported in delivered information provision to 736 individuals and
2019/20. 27 employer sites in the Glasgow College Region, and
5,784 individuals and 184 employer sites across
In the Glasgow College Region, 3,852 individuals and Scotland.
114 employer sites were supported by PACE in Construction and Related: 117
2020/21, compared with 1,323 individuals and 57 Modern Apprenticeship (MA) Redundancies30
employer sites in 2019/20. Proportionally, the number As with redundancies across the labour market, the Hospitality and Tourism: 21
of individuals and employer sites supported by PACE CJRS likely masked the full economic impact of the
increased by less in the Glasgow College Region than pandemic when it was active. IT and Other Services: 12
it did in Scotland.
COVID-19 has fundamentally changed the context in
which apprenticeship training is delivered, and the
statistics must be considered in this context.Regional and National Unemployment Universal Credit33
The latest data shows that unemployment has fallen Whilst Universal Credit includes individuals who are not Since the beginning of 2021/22, claimant count decreased
across Scotland in the past year. unemployed, data on Universal Credit claimants is a useful in the Glasgow College Region, to 28,800 in December
and timely barometer of how COVID-19 has impacted on 2021. For comparison, across Scotland claimant count has
There were 104,800 people aged 16+ unemployed in job losses as well as wider impact on wages. also decreased.
Scotland over the period November 2021 to January
In the Glasgow College Region, Universal Credit claims Claimant count rate shows the number of claimants as a
2022. This was 8,600 fewer than the previous three-
increased from 42,700 in March 2020 (prior to the onset of proportion of residents aged 16-64. As shown in Figure 15,
month period (August 2021 to October 2021).
the pandemic), to 83,300 in March 2021 (the end of the in the Glasgow College Region the claimant count rate has
Furthermore, there were 14,600 fewer people
2020/21 financial year). Proportionally, Universal Credit increased from 3.9 per cent in March 2020 to 7.2 per cent in
unemployed compared to the same point last year
claims increased more in the Glasgow College Region than March 2021, falling to 5.0 per cent in December 2021. This
(November 2020 to January 2021).31
in Scotland. is a decrease from a peak of 7.6 per cent in August 2020.
Comparable regional data is not available for November Since the beginning of 2021/22, Universal Credit claims For comparison, across Scotland the claimant count rate
2021 to January 2022. However, we can report have decreased in the Glasgow College Region, to 78,900 was 3.3 per cent in March 2020, 6.1 per cent in March 2021
unemployment data for those aged 16 and over and in December 2021. This suggests the situation is improving. and 3.9 per cent in December 2021. Nationally the claimant
those aged 16-24 between October 2020 and For comparison, across Scotland the number of Universal count rate peaked at 6.4 per cent in August 2020.
September 2021. Youth unemployment in the Glasgow Credit claims has also decreased.
College Region was 4,100 (7.4 per cent), whilst total 16+
unemployment was 17,900 (4.3 per cent).32 Claimant Count34
Claimant count aims to provide data on the number of Figure 15: Claimant Count rate (January 2020 – December
This compares with 10.4 per cent for youth people receiving out of work benefits. This is currently an 2021), the Glasgow College Region
unemployment and 4.2 percent for total unemployment experimental series, which counts the number of people
7.6%
in Scotland. claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance plus those who claim 7.1% 7.2%
Universal Credit and are required to seek work and be
5.0%
Compared with October 2019-September 2020, the available for work. It is therefore a very useful measure for 6.4% 6.1%
3.8% 3.9% 5.9%
youth unemployment rate in the Glasgow College how COVID-19 has impacted on employment, particularly
Region in October 2020-September 2021 had decreased as commentators have suggested that official 3.9%
by 2.7 percentage points and the 16+ unemployment unemployment levels may be underestimating the true level 3.2% 3.3%
rate had increased by 0.9 percentage points. This of unemployment.
compares to a decline of 1.1 percentage points in the
May
September
May
September
February
July
February
July
March
March
November
December
November
December
October
October
January
January
April
August
April
August
June
June
In the Glasgow College Region, claimant count increased
youth unemployment rate in Scotland, and an increase from 22,500 in March 2020 (prior to the onset of the
of 0.6 percentage points in the total 16+ unemployment pandemic), to 41,300 in March 2021 (the end of the 2020/21
rate in Scotland. financial year). Proportionally, claimant count increased less 2020 2021
in the Glasgow College Region than in Scotland. Glasgow College Region ScotlandRegional Requirement35
Future demand for skills
In this section we provide an overview of the total labour market
requirement in the Glasgow College Region. They should be used as
guidance on overall trends based on current evidence - rather than Expansion Demand
definitive numbers. We provide this overview for two time periods: Expansion demand is the measure of an increase/decrease in jobs,
as a result of economic growth or contraction.
• The mid-term, 2021-2024; and
• The longer-term, 2024-2031.
We do this as the data and evidence suggests that, for the most part, the
changes and dynamics in the mid-term are largely a result of the economy
and labour market recovering from the impacts of the pandemic.
Replacement Demand
Whereas over the longer-term we see changes associated with recovery Replacement demand is the number of job openings generated by
level-off, and the labour market operating in the ‘new normal’. In most people leaving the labour market (i.e. those who retire, move away,
cases by the end of 2024 or during 2025 we see labour markets return to a or change jobs).
position similar to that pre-pandemic. Whilst this is generally the case, not
all regions are expected to.
It is important to note that the forecasts do not account for national or
regional activities, initiatives or investments that are planned. This is true
for planned activity relating to jobs being lost in the area through relocation
or business closure, and also activity that may lead to jobs being created.
Users of the RSA are encouraged to overlay the forecasts with their
knowledge of local factors. Total Requirement
Total requirement is made up of expansion demand and replacement
demand to show the total number of job openings.You can also read
