Risks that Matter Early Results from the 2018 OECD Cross-National Survey on Social and Economic Risks
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Risks that Matter Early Results from the 2018 OECD Cross-National Survey on Social and Economic Risks
Please cite as OECD (2018), “Risks that Matter: Early Results from the 2018 OECD Cross-National Survey on Social and Economic Risks,” Policy Brief on the Future of Work, www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm Contacts Monika Queisser (monika.queisser@oecd.org), Valerie Frey (valerie.frey@oecd.org), Chris Clarke (chris.clarke@oecd.org), OECD Directorate for Employment, Labour, and Social Affairs 2 Risks that Matter © OECD 2018
Foreword We are living in eventful times. Globalisation and digitalisation, as well as population ageing, are imposing deep and rapid changes in the world of work and in our societies. No doubt these changes create new opportunities for many, but they also paint a scary prospect for others. Many workers fear that their job may be taken by a robot or will require them to perform tasks they can’t handle. At the same time, population ageing is putting new strains on families. Many people are looking to their governments for decisive policy action and answers on how to address these issues. Given the complexity and close interdependence of these changes, it is more important than ever to listen to people to understand what matters to them and what they expect from their government. Complemented with hard facts and empirical evidence, first-hand information on perceived risks and expectations can provide policy makers with key insights into how to respond to the societal and economic changes we face. It is in this context that, in the spring of 2018, the OECD carried out the first cross-national survey of people’s social and economic concerns. In cooperation with Respondi Limited, we conducted the OECD Risks that Matter survey in 19 countries, with more than 20 000 adult respondents, in order to capture public opinion around perceptions of risks and government responsiveness. What social and economic risks matter most to them? How long can most people make ends meet without government assistance? How well do citizens think government is doing in addressing their concerns? Are people willing to pay more in terms of taxes and social security contributions for certain public services? This note presents the survey’s first round of results, which focus on risk perceptions. Some of the findings are hardly surprising: people of all ages, around the world, are worried about their pensions and financial security in old age. People are also frequently worried about falling ill and making ends meet. In a few countries, concerns about personal safety and security are a top priority. Risks vary across groups. In many countries, women are significantly more concerned about making ends meet than men. Younger people are much more likely to have strong concerns about their future prospects and are more worried about finding affordable housing. And parents worry much more about their children’s future status and comfort than their own. We also asked people what they think government should do about these risks. Respondents overwhel- mingly told us that government should be doing more to ensure their economic security. And, in all but three countries, the majority say that they feel the government does not incorporate the views of people like them when designing or reforming public benefits. Future releases of the OECD Risks that Matter survey data will further detail what people want from government – and whether (and how much) they are willing to pay for it. We will work closely with governments to help use these data to prioritise and shape social policies that meet the needs of all people. We need to craft policies that ensure the inclusion of the young, the old, the poor, the middle class, and groups that have long faced disadvantage. As always, reforms will require addressing trade-offs while exploiting synergies, but understanding different groups’ positions and prio- rities can shed light on how to manage such trade-offs in the policymaking process. The OECD stands ready to help governments build smarter social policies for the future and achieve inclusive growth. Together, we can build better policies for better lives. Stefano Scarpetta Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Risks that Matter © OECD 2018 3
Risks that Matter
In many countries, there is growing concern about how well public services
– particularly social programmes – deliver what matters most to citizens.
At the same time, nearly every country is grappling with how to develop
and modernise social protection in the face of rising inequality and the
changing nature of work. Around the world, governments and policymakers
are being asked to adapt to major changes and reform their social protection
systems for the future.
It is in this challenging economic and political climate that the OECD has
carried out the first cross-national survey on people’s perceptions of social
and economic risks, opportunities, and public policy preferences. Nationally-
representative surveys were conducted in 19 countries around the world
in spring 2018, capturing the cultural, geographic, and economic diversity
of the OECD.
The survey provides valuable insights into many key questions around
the broad theme of how well governments are responding to citizens’
needs and expectations in social policy design and implementations. This
is critical information for policymakers seeking to build effective social
policies, empower disadvantaged groups, and meet the diverse needs of
their populations
4 Risks that Matter © OECD 2018
About the survey
The OECD Risks That Matter survey is the first cross-national survey of its
kind looking at people’s perceptions of social and economic risks and how
well they think government addresses those risks. From March to April 2018,
the OECD engaged with a representative sample of 20 000 people aged 18-
through 70 years-old in 19 countries: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Denmark,
Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Mexico, the
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia and the United States. Respondents were
asked about their social and economic concerns, how well they think government
responds to their needs and expectations, and what policies they would like
to see put in place in the future. Funding for the survey was provided by OECD
member countries’ voluntary contributions and Open Society Foundations.
Respondi Limited was contracted for implementation of the survey, which was
conducted online with samples recruited via the internet and over the phone.
The survey was translated into national languages.
This brief provides a summary of the survey’s first round of results, which
focus on perceptions of social and economic risks.
Respondents were asked about the different social and economic risks facing
them and their immediate family, both in the near future (the next year or two)
and in the longer term (beyond the next ten years). They were given a range of
different options and were asked to select the three greatest risks (if any). The
options for risks over the next year or two were: becoming ill or disabled; losing
a job or self-employment income; securing / maintaining adequate housing;
struggling to meet all expenses despite working; difficulty accessing good-qua-
lity child care or education for their children; difficulty ensuring long-term care
of elderly or disabled family members; and crime or violence.
The risk choices over the longer term were: attaining the level of status and
comfort (job-security, income, home-ownership) that their parents had or that
they envision for themselves; that their children will not achieve the level of
status and comfort (job-security, income, home-ownership) that they have;
being financially secure in old age; securing / maintaining adequate housing; and
ensuring long-term care of elderly or disabled family members. The response
choice order was randomised for each respondent.
The survey collected a range of important background information, including
age, gender, family composition, employment status, education level, income
level and primary language spoken at home, to help develop a representative
national sample. This also enabled the analysis of, for example, different family
structures and different indicators defined by different measures of poverty.
Results from the remainder of the survey – which will focus on perceptions of
government effectiveness and desired policies – will be released in mid-2018.
Find out more and stay up to date with the OECD Risks that Matter survey at:
www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm
Risks that Matter © OECD 2018 5
In the short term, people are most concerned
with falling ill and with struggling to make ends
meet
On average across the 19 countries surveyed, just over half of all respondents
list “becoming ill or disabled” as one of the top-three social or economic
risks facing them or their immediate family in the next year or two
(Figure 1). This is the most common concern in 12 countries, including
some countries with highly developed social protection systems – including
Finland (65% of respondents listed illness or disability as a top-three risk),
Belgium (63%), and France (62%).
Concerns about illness and disability grow with age (Figure 2). On average
across the 19 countries, roughly 40% of respondents aged 20 to 29 list
“becoming ill or disabled” as one of their top-three risks. This share increases
steadily across age groups, with about 70% of 60- to 70-year-olds listing
illness or disability as one of their top-three concerns.
In five countries, making ends meet – or struggling to meet daily expenses
despite working – is the most commonly listed short-term concern
(Figure 1). Rates are especially high in countries that were hit hard by the
global financial crisis, like Greece (71% listed it as a top-three risk) and Italy
(56%).
6 Risks that Matter © OECD 2018
Figure 1. People are most concerned with falling ill and struggling
to make ends meet
Percent of respondents identifying each risk as one of the top-three greatest short-term
(over the next year or two) risks to themselves or their immediate family, 2018
Note: Respondents were asked to identify the three greatest risks to themselves or their immediate family from a
list of seven risks. Respondents had the option of selecting zero, one, two, or three risks.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter survey (2018).
Figure 2. Fear of illness and disability increase with age
Percent of respondents identifying “becoming ill or disabled” as one of the top-three
greatest short-term (over the next year or two) risks to themselves or their immediate
family, by five-year age group, unweighted average across the 19 sample countries, 2018
Note: Respondents were asked to identify the three greatest risks to themselves or their immediate family from a
list of seven risks. Respondents had the option of selecting zero, one, two, or three risks.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter survey (2018).
Risks that Matter © OECD 2018 7
Women are significantly more concerned about making ends meet
than men are in 10 of the 19 countries surveyed (Figure 3). And, on
average across all countries, 51% of women vs. 44% of men list making
ends meet as a top-three risk they face. In most countries (13 out of
19), women are also significantly more likely than men to report that
they would struggle to cover their basic needs if they lost their income
and could not access unemployment or social assistance benefits.
Low-income respondents, too, are often concerned about adequate housing and
making ends meet (Figure 4). In 15 countries, respondents from low-income house-
holds were more likely than those from high-income households to list securing
or maintaining adequate housing as one of their top-three short-term concerns.
Personal security – or fear of crime and violence – is a serious concern in
places like Mexico and Italy. 62.3% of Mexicans list it as a top-three risk.
It is also a common worry in Germany and Austria, where nearly half
of respondents list crime or violence as a top-three risk to themselves
or their immediate family (see Figure 1). With the exception of Mexico,
men tend to be more concerned about crime and violence than women in
countries where there is a significant gender difference in risk perceptions.
8 Risks that Matter © OECD 2018
Figure 3. Women are more concerned about making ends meet
Percent of respondents identifying “struggling to meet all expenses (working, but income
too low)” as one of the top-three greatest short-term (over the next year or two) risks to
themselves or their immediate family, by gender, 2018
Note: Countries are ranked in ascending order according to the percentage point difference between values for men
and women. In countries marked with an *, the difference is statistically significant at p
Shared prosperity matters
When it comes to perceptions of economic well-being and being able to make
ends meet, national economic environments matter – a lot. Countries with
higher income poverty rates, lower employment rates, and, to some extent,
higher levels of income inequality also tend to be those countries with a
higher number of respondents saying that “struggling to meet all expenses”
is a top-three short-term risk (Figure 5). These countries also tend to have
a higher share of respondents reporting that they would struggle to meet
their basic expenses if they (or their partner) lost their income and they
could not access unemployment or social assistance benefits. In part, this
is because fewer respondents report having savings or assets to help tide
them over in difficult times.
Looking towards the future, countries with high poverty rates and relatively
low employment rates also have a higher share of respondents picking
attaining status and comfort (for either themselves or their children) as
one of their top-three long-term risks
Figure 5. People are more worried about making ends meet in countries
with higher poverty rates
Relative income poverty rate (after taxes and transfers) for the total population, latest
available year, and percent of respondents identifying “struggling to meet all expenses
(working, but income too low)” as one of the top-three greatest short-term (over the next
year or two) risks to themselves or their immediate family, 2018
Note: Poverty threshold set at 50% of the national annual median equivalised disposable household income. Income
poverty rate data refer to 2014 for Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Italy and Mexico, and to 2015 for all other countries.
Source: OECD Income Distribution Database (http://www.oecd.org/social/income-distribution-database.htm), and
OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter survey (2018).
10 Risks that Matter © OECD 2018In the long term – beyond the next decade –
people are by far most worried about their
pension.
Looking beyond the next decade, financial security in old age is
the most common top-three long-term concern in all 19 countries
surveyed (Figure 6). Indeed, on average across countries, about 72%
of all respondents list it as one of their top-three long-term concerns.
Concerns around finances in old age stretch across age groups.
In fact, in most countries, more than half of young respondents
(18- to 24-year-olds) list it as one of their top-three long-term concerns.
Unsurprisingly, though, older respondents are most worried. On
average across the 19 countries, roughly 82% of respondents aged 55-70
list finances in old age among their top-three long-term concerns.
Interestingly, there are very few differences in worries about pensions
across other subgroups – including gender, workers on standard vs.
non-standard work contracts, and people with different income and
education levels. Everyone is concerned about getting by in old age.
Risks that Matter © OECD 2018 11Figure 6. In the long run, everyone is worried about their pension
Percent of respondents identifying each risk as one of the top-three greatest long-term
(beyond the next decade) risks to themselves or their immediate family, 2018
Note: Respondents were asked to identify the three greatest risks to themselves or their immediate family from a list
of five risks. Respondents had the option of selecting zero, one, two, or three risks.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter survey (2018).
Different groups face different risks – but some
concerns are universal
Different patterns in risk perceptions emerge when looking at different
socioeconomic groups across countries, but some concerns hold steady
across age, gender, family form, worker type and country.
Age is a common dividing line, with older respondents tending to identify
different risks than younger people. Unsurprisingly, concerns around illness
or disability increase with age. In most countries, older people are also more
likely than others to identify elderly care and fear of crime and violence as
one of the top risks facing them or their family.
Younger people are more likely to have strong concerns about their future
prospects. On average across the 19 countries included in the survey, well
over half of respondents in their 20s list attaining the level of status and
comfort their parents had as one of their top-three long-term concerns. In
several countries, including Finland, Greece, and Portugal, this share rises
as high as two-thirds or more.
12 Risks that Matter © OECD 2018Younger generations are also more likely to express concerns about affording
housing (Figure 7). On average across the 19 countries, around one-third of
respondents aged between 20 and 34 pick securing or maintaining adequate
housing as one of their top-three short-term concerns, with the share peaking
at 39.3% among 25- to 29-year-olds. Housing is a particular concern for young
people in the Baltic countries – in both Estonia and Lithuania, well over
half of all respondents in their 20s chose housing as a top-three concern.
Parents and non-parents differ in their perspectives towards children. The
most striking difference across people with and without children reflects
parents’ fears about intergenerational mobility. Parents worry much more
about their children’s future status and comfort than their own future
status and comfort. On average across the sample, 60% of parents list the
risk that their children will not achieve the level of status and comfort that
they have as a top-three long-term risk. This concern about how well their
children will fare is second only to concerns about financial security in old
age (72.9% of parents list this). In contrast, only 38.8% of parents (and 43.9%
of people without children) worry that they themselves will not do as well
as their own parents did.
This is not to say that people without children should not be targeted by
family policies. Indeed, childless respondents are significantly more likely
to worry about caring for their own parents in seven countries. While short-
term fears of falling ill, losing a job, affording housing, and making ends meet
are rarely significantly different across people with and without children,
parents are understandably more worried about affording good-quality
childcare – on average across the sample, a quarter of parents list childcare
as a top-three concern, with rates over 30% in Austria and Germany.
Risks that Matter © OECD 2018 13Low-income and middle-income respondents have significantly different
perceptions of short-term and long-term risks than respondents from high-in-
come households. Poor and middle-class people (measured here as those
in households in the bottom-three and middle-four deciles, respectively, in
each country) worry more about affording housing and making ends meet
(Figure 4), while respondents from high (top-three) income deciles are more
concerned about affording childcare and long-term care for elderly or disabled
relatives. This might be due to the fact that higher-income households have
higher labour force participation and therefore are more likely to need to
outsource eldercare and childcare services. On average, 28.4% of high-in-
come respondents list eldercare as a top-three short-term risk, relative to
24.8% of low- and middle-income respondents – a significant difference in
Austria, Canada, Finland, Germany, Italy and Portugal.
Figure 7. Housing is a concern for younger generations
Percent of respondents identifying “securing or maintaining adequate housing” as one of
the top-three greatest short-term (over the next year or two) risks to themselves or their
immediate family, by five-year age group, unweighted average across the 19 sample coun-
tries, 2018
Note: Respondents were asked to identify the three greatest risks to themselves or their immediate family from a list
of seven risks. Respondents had the option of selecting zero, one, two, or three risks.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter survey (2018).
14 Risks that Matter © OECD 2018The OECD Risks that Matter survey confirms the intuition that self-employed
workers and workers on temporary job contracts are much more worried
about the risk of job loss than their peers on more standard work contracts
(Figure 8). In twelve countries, there is a significant difference in the fear
of job loss across workers in non-standard and standard job contracts. On
average across the 19 countries surveyed, 47% of self-employed and short-
term contract workers say “losing a job or self-employment income” is one
of their top concerns for the next year or two – compared to a rate of only
39% of workers in open-ended, dependent employment contracts. Social
policies should increasingly consider how to incorporate these workers
into social protection schemes, to ensure that they are protected in the
case of income loss.
Figure 8. Non-standard workers are concerned about job loss
Percent of respondents identifying “losing a job or self-employment income” as one of
the top-three greatest short-term (over the next year or two) risks to themselves or their
immediate family, among employed respondents, by worker type, 2018
Note: Countries are ranked in ascending order according to the percentage point difference between values for workers
in non-standard contracts versus permanent, dependent employees. In countries marked with an *, the gap is statis-
tically significant at pGovernments must do more to address these
risks
In many countries, there is significant dissatisfaction with government’s
performance in providing a social safety net. On average across the 19
surveyed countries, about 70% of respondents believe that government
should be doing more to ensure their economic and social security.
This corresponds with a widespread feeling that people’s personal economic
circumstances have not improved in recent years. Across countries, over
75% of all respondents feel that their economic situation is the same or
worse than it was a year ago. Unsurprisingly, this belief is most common
(at 84%, on average) among respondents from households with low relative
incomes (measured here as those in the bottom three deciles of the national
income distribution).
There is also a sense of disconnect between policy and the people. Many
people feel that government does not fully incorporate their views in
policymaking. In all but three countries, a majority of respondents say
that they feel the government does not incorporate the views of people
like them when designing or reforming public benefits. Older respondents
(55- to 70-year-olds) are most likely to feel this way (69%, on average), though
young people are not immune to feeling alienated from government: close
to half (45%) of young respondents (18- to 24-year-olds) say that government
does not incorporate their views. People are most satisfied in Norway (30%
agreed that the government includes their views in policy design), the United
States (27%), the Netherlands (26%), and Canada (25%) – though even these
relatively high performers have positive response rates that are well below
one-third of the population.
16 Risks that Matter © OECD 2018What is most striking is just how widespread these feelings are. There are
some differences across socio-economic and demographic groups, but it
is far from just the most vulnerable who feel that governments are not
doing enough to ensure their social and economic well-being. The belief
that government is not doing enough is common among men and women,
those with and those without university degrees, the young and the old, and
the poor and the rich. For example, the share of respondents stating that
government should do more to safeguard their well-being falls as income
rises, but, on average, the rate still hovers around 60% even among those
from the top income decile – that is, among the top 10% of earners. Similarly,
on average across the 19 countries surveyed, a majority of respondents
both with and without university degrees believe that government does not
properly incorporate their views when designing public benefits. Government
disaffection is not limited just to those who have been “left behind”.
Show me the money
Given these strong preferences over risks and government effectiveness,
are people willing to pay more for the social programmes they want?
The OECD Risks that Matter survey tested people’s willingness to pay more for
desired social programmes by including (and then not including) a specific
price tag for specific programmes. More than a third of respondents said
they would be willing to pay an extra 2% of their income in taxes and social
contributions on healthcare and pensions, but there was far less support for
spending an additional 2% of income on other services, such as childcare,
unemployment benefits/services, disability benefits, affordable housing,
and long-term care for the elderly.
When asked about spending more without a specific price tag in taxes,
respondents in 14 countries are more likely to agree than disagree that
government should increase spending on education and training, even if
it means that taxes will rise and some other programmes will need to be
cut. In several countries, support for spending on education and training
is higher among respondents with higher levels of educational attainment.
In Germany, for example, 51% of respondents with a high level of education
agree that government should increase spending on education and training,
even if it means that taxes rise and or other programmes are cut. This
support for spending in education and training falls to about 31% among
those with low levels of educational attainment.
Respondents in 17 countries are also more likely to agree than disagree that
government should increase spending on pensions, even if it means taxes will
rise and some other programmes will need to be cut. Unsurprisingly, support
for more spending on pensions is often higher among older respondents
(55- to 70-year-olds), though not in all countries. France, Germany, Greece,
Italy, Lithuania, Mexico, the Netherlands and the United States all saw
no significant difference between young (18- to 24-year-olds) and older
respondents in the share agreeing that government should increase spending
on pensions.
Risks that Matter © OECD 2018 17The next release of the OECD Risks that Matter
survey data will illustrate what people expect
from their governments. Stay up to date at:
www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm
18 Risks that Matter © OECD 2018Please cite as
OECD (2018), “Risks that Matter: Early Results
from the 2018 OECD Cross-National Survey on
Social and Economic Risks,” Policy Brief on the
Future of Work, www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-
matter.htm
Contacts
Monika Queisser (monika.queisser@oecd.org),
Valerie Frey (valerie.frey@oecd.org),
Chris Clarke (chris.clarke@oecd.org),
OECD Directorate for Employment, Labour,
and Social Affairs
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