SCENARIO PLANNING CONFIDENT DECISION MAKING FOR AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE - A CASE STUDY OF RMIT UNIVERSITY - SJS Strategy
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SCENARIO
PLANNING
CONFIDE NT
DECI S ION MAK ING FOR AN
UNCE RTAIN FUTURE
A CASE STUDY OF RMIT UNIVERSITY
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Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• For leadership teams, strategic planning regularly » Gain alignment on the path forward.
becomes a drawn-out and tiring process, resulting • The outcomes produced by the team at RMIT
in a strategy that is perceived as a compromise University included:
lacking imagination and enthusiastic ownership.
» Key trends shaping the future operating environment;
• Getting alignment on what the future operating
» A range of relevant and plausible future scenarios;
environment of the organisation might look like
often proves to be an early stumbling block, » Options that address the challenges and capture
diluting the rest of the strategic planning process the opportunities that the range of futures present
as it gravitates towards “yet another business as the organisation with; and
usual document.” » A selection process that resulted in ‘pressure-
tested’ strategic options to buil d a robust
• This case study provides an overview of how RMIT
longer-term strategy.
University’s Research & Innovation Portfolio used
scenario planning over the course of six weeks in • Ultimately, the facilitated scenario planning process
May-June 2019 to: creates alignment about the future, allowing decision-
makers to converge on crucial assumptions and choices.
» Explore a range of relevant and plausible
This lifts the focus and productivity of the strategic
futures for their organisation;
planning process, resulting in confident decision-making
» Create a shared understanding about that and tangible progress – invaluable for leaders tasked
future operating environment; and with the charting the future of their organisation.
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Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
CONTENTS
Executive summary 2
The challenge 4
The context 5
Our solution 6
The project 7
The outcomes 8
01. Key trends shaping the future of research 8
and innovation at RMIT University
02. Scenarios: a range of relevant and 9
plausible future operating environments
of RMIT University
03. ‘Pressure-tested’ strategic options 11
04. A clear path forward 12
Testimonials 13
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Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
THE CHALLENGE
RMIT University is one of Australia’s leading universities, ranking in the global top
250 1. The university’s Research & Innovation Portfolio (R&I Portfolio) has been
performing well, achieving the targets that it has set out for itself in recent years.
The mission of the R&I Portfolio at RMIT University is to “support researchers
to help shape the world and promote the strategic vision for research at RMIT.”
In 2019, although performing well, the leadership team was well aware that the
world is changing and that the R&I Portfolio can’t plan for ‘business as usual’ if it is
to continue to thrive in a changing future.
But what does that future look like exactly? And how do we as team make confident
decisions when we can’t be certain?
To tackle these questions in its strategic plans, the leadership team needed to
get a better understanding – and align as a team – on what the future environment
could look like in which it is looking to create real and beneficial impact through
its research and innovation activities.
And to do that well, it is key that not only the leadership team addresses
these questions, but that the strategic planning process embraces the diverse … What does that future look
perspectives and expertise of the broader team that makes up the R&I Portfolio
like exactly? And how do we as
at RMIT University.
team make confident decisions
when we can’t be certain?
1
https://www.topuniversities.com/universities/rmit-university
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Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
THE CONTEXT
No strategic engagement comes in isolation. At SJS
Strategy, we pride ourselves in being good listeners
to ensure that we understand what the client requires.
Meeting with the leadership team it was determined
and confirmed that the engagement had the
following requirements:
1. Staff engagement
2. To provide input for RMIT’s research and
innovation strategy
3. Not a ‘business as usual’ approach to the
strategic planning process; and
4. Meet a tight submission deadline.
In addition to the above, the university was also going
through a restructure, which impacted all faculties and
portfolios, including the R&I Portfolio. In this context, it
was important that the process was not merely inclusive
and engaging, but provided the broader team a real
and tangible opportunity to contribute and to have their
contribution included.
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Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
OUR SOLUTION
Although an indispensable part of strategy development,
The big question then becomes; what does our future A frequently heard
operating environment look like?
we refer to scenario planning as ‘pre-strategy’; i.e., before misconception about scenarios
developing your strategy, let’s first get a better and shared The old Arab proverb that “those who predict the future is that developing them
understanding (alignment) of what your future operating lie, even if they tell the truth” goes to the core of scenario
environment might look like in which you will have to
is too time consuming for
planning: no one can accurately predict the future.
execute your strategy and achieve your objectives. organisations to incorporate
Rather than predicting, scenario planning is about
For leadership teams, this often proves to be the hardest
them in their strategic planning
exploring relevant and plausible futures that your
part in the strategic planning process – and it’s where organisation might be faced with. It is based on a solid process. Nothing could be
strategy meetings frequently get stuck. Equally, when they process and rigorous analysis, and at SJS Strategy we further from the truth.
get this part of the process right, it is where real gains are believe that the best scenario planning takes place when
made, significantly lifting the focus and productivity of their that process is engaging and embraces diversity. This making and tangible progress – something that is
strategic planning. means that the scenarios are co-developed by and with invaluable for leaders tasked with the charting the future
the staff of the organisation – after all, they are at the of their organisation.
For leadership teams, getting coalface of their industry.
To help leaders use scenarios for their strategic planning,
alignment on what the future A frequently heard misconception about scenarios is that we have developed the scenario planning Sprint. This is
operating environment might look developing them is too time consuming for organisations a rapid, yet thorough and engaging process that includes
to incorporate them in their strategic planning process. two online surveys leading into a one-day workshop;
like often proves to be the hardest Nothing could be further from the truth. By collectively an undertaking that is completed in a matter of weeks,
part in the strategic planning process developing scenarios, alignment about the future is rather than months.
– and it’s where strategy meetings created, allowing decision-makers to converge on crucial
frequently get stuck. assumptions and choices. The result is confident decision
6Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
THE PROJECT
1 2 3 4 5
STEP
STEP
STEP
STEP
STEP
The Sprint for RMIT’s R&I Portfolio took
place over five weeks in May and June
of 2019. The two online surveys allowed
the leadership team to capture the
insights from their staff, as well as key
stakeholders, and include their input in
the process. The one-day workshop with
the staff and the leadership team built on Explore the Generate
this work to develop the scenarios and Determine external Establish key Develop the and validate
the subsequent strategic options that are the scope environment uncertainties scenarios strategic options
essential to scenario planning. » What is the focal » What are the trends » Of these trends, » Once the scenario » Once the scenarios
question that we are – both macro and which are the framework has been have been developed,
Figure 1 to the right provides an overview trying to answer? industry specific – ones that are developed, one can one can identify the
of the steps that make up the scenario that the organisation most uncertain, detail the scenario key challenges and
» What is the time
has no influence and will have the stories; what could opportunities, as well
planning Sprint. horizon?
over, but which shape biggest impact? be the causes of the as strategic options to
» What are the the future operating scenarios, and what address the challenges
» These two key
boundaries? environment that your are the characteristics and capture the
uncertainties (‘change
» Who are the relevant organisation will find of each scenario? opportunities
drivers’) form the
stakeholders? itself in?
scenario framework
Figure 1: The five steps of the scenario planning Sprint
Key to the success of the engagement was that the process was inclusive, challenging, creative and inspirational, leading
to results being developed – and owned – by the people that ultimately will be executing and delivering on the outcomes.
7Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
THE OUTCOMES Trends shaping the future of research and innovation in the university sector:
The gig economy - an economy that relies on freelance or contract workers - has moved from the margins
The rise of the
01
to the mainstream. Technology is enabling companies to meet resource needs in new and flexible ways,
OUTCOME ‘gig economy’
while also offering workers new ways to manage and build their careers.
A new political fault line is emerging; not between left and right, but between open and closed, i.e. those
The new political divide that argue that the outside world is a dangerous, threatening place and those that welcome and embrace
international collaboration.
We are entering the early stages of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is seeing a convergence of the
Key trends shaping the future More disruptive
physical, digital and biological worlds. The introduction of technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine
technologies and
of research and innovation at learning, blockchain, augmented and virtual reality are heralding the transformation of entire systems of
innovative advancements
RMIT University production, management, and governance.
As Victoria’s biggest export, international education is a critical component of the state’s economy. International
Based on the scope of the Sprint, the The internationalisation
students currently pay the majority of fees in our universities and without their contribution, the capacity for our
broader R&I team as well as key RMIT of education
institutions to provide high quality academic offerings to domestic students would be materially impacted.
stakeholders explored the trends that will
Financial commitment to research funding will endure, but the mix of sources will continue to evolve; industry and
shape the environment in 2030 in which The changing funding
philanthropic funding becomes more dominant, which is likely to lead to more emphasis on applied research, while a
RMIT will need to conduct its research and mix for research
growing need to demonstrate the (societal) impact of research will reflect a broader climate of greater accountability.
innovation activities. A total of 24 trends
There will be a move towards more flexible learning, e.g. a shift in focus from “early life” education toward “lifelong
were identified. Figure 2 to the right shows Courses will diversify
learning” and fast-track undergraduate degrees. As the pressure to compete with new market entrants mounts,
a selection of these trends. from a lecture-focused
universities will experiment with teaching styles. Education will increasingly take the form of “flipped” classrooms,
model
with students watching video lectures at home and class time devoted to discussions and interactive problem solving.
Adoption of EdTech is taking place slowly and unevenly. A few governments already broadly support it and it is
Figure 2: A selection of the 24 trends EdTech will become likely more governments will in the future, enabling a new generation of EdTech institutions to emerge. MOOCs
deemed relevant for RMIT University’s a serious higher have not disrupted the education space to the extent predicted a decade ago; it takes more than just online access
education contender to benefit from online resources. However, the concept has not disappeared and universities are likely to continue
research and innovation activities
offering online and remote education.
8Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
02
OUTCOME
Scenarios: a range of relevant and plausible future operating
environments of RMIT University
Out of the 24 trends, the two key uncertainties (‘change drivers’) were selected
to form the scenario framework.
The scenarios that resulted from the framework sketch a range of futures
for RMIT’s R&I Portfolio that are:
• Divergent: they differ from one another in significant ways
• Challenging: they challenge beliefs and assumptions and present
fundamental challenges to the organisation’s status quo
• Relevant: they highlight key challenges and dynamics of the future
as they relate to the organisation
• Plausible: they are logical, consistent and believable
Figure 3 on the following page shows the scenarios based on the two
key uncertainties as they relate to RMIT’s R&I Portfolio in 2030.
9Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
02
OUTCOME
Technological
revolution
1 2
Key uncertainties:
• More disruptive technologies SCENARIO SCENARIO
and innovative advancements
• The changing funding mix
3 4
for research
Public SCENARIO SCENARIO Private
agenda agenda
Figure 3: Scenarios for RMIT’s
Research & Innovation Portfolio
in 2030 (summaries only)
Technological
evolution
10Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
Technological
revolution SCENARIO
1
SCENARIO
1 SCENARIO
2 • Governments have taken increased control over technology and
innovation, in pro-science policy contexts, where innovation aimed
at solving the grand challenges regarding climate change and health
Public
agenda
SCENARIO
3 SCENARIO
4 Private
agenda
care is stimulated.
• International standards and regulations have been harmonised,
particularly when it comes to data sharing and security, with
Technological
technology playing a driving role in society and the economy.
evolution
• Increase in public funding, coupled with a diminished emphasis
on translation, means there is more room for fundamental research
(mostly STEAM) and research aimed at social impact.
• Research is cross-disciplinary, problem-oriented and often includes
global teams collaborating virtually.
• The faster pace of innovation in the private sector means that
public education, research and innovation systems always seem
to be playing catch-up with the latest technologies and advances.
11Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
Technological
revolution SCENARIO
2
SCENARIO
1 SCENARIO
2 • In this globalised economy, capital, talent, goods, and services,
as well as IP and ideas, flow more freely than ever, which has proven
fertile ground for rapid technological advancement and competition.
Public
agenda
SCENARIO
3 SCENARIO
4 Private
agenda • A ‘winner-takes-all’ dynamic has taken shape with ever-growing
large multinational technology conglomerates playing a bigger role
in the economy and society.
Technological • Social value or the social impact of technology does not have
evolution
the attention of profit-driven international shareholders.
• In this fast-paced world with a more fragmented labour market
there has been a rapid rise in micro-credentialing and data-driven
mass customisation.
• Traditional institutions, such as universities, have difficulties finding
the necessary research and teaching talent as they compete with
international ‘prime’ firms who recruit talent early, with better pay,
guaranteed company career tracks and funding.
12Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
Technological
revolution SCENARIO
3
SCENARIO
1 SCENARIO
2 • Governments have focussed inwards and protectionism is a ubiquitous
strategy leading to de-globalisation, economic uncertainty and investors
focusing on the short-term, preferring proven models over innovation in
Public
agenda
SCENARIO
3 SCENARIO
4 Private
agenda
such uncertain times.
• Global cyber security and privacy failures created a backlash against
technology (‘techlash’) putting pressure on governments to impose
Technological
stricter rules and regulations around technology.
evolution
• Higher education, and research and innovation, has gained prominence
and is now ‘in the driver’s seat’.
• With both the public and private sectors facing financial constraints,
public-private collaborations are more ubiquitous, but there are stricter
regulations and conditions around delivering on public good, either
for the community or government.
• Universities are in fierce competition to attract funding as well as
the necessary talent.
13Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
Technological
revolution SCENARIO
4
SCENARIO
1 SCENARIO
2 • Protectionism has hurt global trade and technological saturation has
set in (fears of cybercrime and privacy breaches) leading to short-term
investment agendas and a preference for resiliency over efficiency.
Public
agenda
SCENARIO
3 SCENARIO
4 Private
agenda • Strapped for funding in a shrunken economy, the government has
reduced funding for higher education, science and research; attaching
strict criteria around economic return on investment.
Technological • Companies are increasingly seeking collaboration with universities as
evolution
well as other public research institutions in order to share the financial
risks of research and innovation.
• Research is iterative in nature, improving on existing commercial
products rather than true innovation.
• Reduced funding has seen a shrinking talent pool of students and PhD
candidates for universities to access, which is further exacerbated now
that governments limit the domestic opportunities for foreign students
and researchers.
14Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
03
OUTCOME IMPLICATIONS SCENARIO OPTIONS
The conditions in which we need to take decisions Choices at our disposal in said conditions
Important challenges Possible reactions
Bottlenecks Possible solutions
‘Pressure-tested’ strategic options
Changing roles New partnerships
The scenarios are divergent, yet internally
consistent narratives of the future operating
environment that RMIT’s R&I Portfolio may Important demands / needs New products or services
be faced with in 2030.
Doing it yourself, with partners
Other skills / expertise required
By exploring a range of the most relevant or outsourcing
and plausible futures, not only did the
team meaningfully escape ‘business
as usual’ planning; they gained new Once the options were generated under each scenario, the team then ‘pressure-tested’ these options under each of the
and credible insights. Armed with these four scenarios to assess how robust (future-proof) they are. In scenario planning, this is referred to as ‘windtunnelling’.
insights, and using the framework below, Although the specific outcomes cannot be shared, the strategic options that emerged for RMIT’s R&I Portfolio were
the team was able to collectively identify themed as follows (in no particular order):
the implications (i.e., challenges and
opportunities) that each future scenario Collaboration & Flexibility & Cross-disciplinary Ethics, Trust, Proactive Talent
represents for the university and to Partnering Adaptability Initiatives Identity & Culture Management
formulate options in response.
Figure 4: Generating options for each future scenario
15Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
04
OUTCOME
As soon as this alignment is
established […] the immediate and
palpable boost in the focus and
productivity of the strategic planning
process creates a clear path forward,
allowing the leadership team to make A confident path forward
confident decisions when the time has Establishing early on the fact that no one can predict the future means that the scenario
arrived to take action. planning process provided a safe environment that harnessed the divergent insights,
experience and expertise of the broader R&I team at RMIT University. This brought a richness
and diversity that prevented ‘business as usual’ thinking, providing a platform for decision-
makers to think more broadly and constructively challenge the organisation’s ‘official future’.
Ultimately, scenario planning is about creating structure in uncertainty – you can’t eliminate
uncertainty, but we can create structure in it. As such, the Sprint process facilitated a deeply
strategic dialogue that allowed the decision-makers to converge on what it is that makes the
organisation truly unique and what its role might be in a changing world.
As soon as this alignment is established – and this is one of our great joys as scenario
planners – the immediate and palpable boost in the focus and productivity of the strategic
planning process creates a clear path forward, allowing the leadership team to make
confident decisions when the time has arrived to take action.
The outcomes from the scenario planning Sprint, and the insights gained during the
process, have been incorporated in the strategic plans of RMIT’s Research & Innovation
Portfolio and are helping the organisation confidently navigate the future.
16Executive Summary Contents The challenge The context Our solution The project OUTCOME 01 OUTCOME 02 OUTCOME 03 OUTCOME 04 Testimonials
TESTIMONIALS
Prof Calum Drummond AO Jane Holt Prof Swee Mak
Deputy Vice-Chancellor Research & Innovation Executive Director, Research Strategy and Services Associate Deputy Vice-Chancellor
and Vice-President (Project sponsor) (Research Capability) and Professor of Innovation
“We were looking for a different approach “SJS Strategy worked seamlessly with “We thoroughly enjoyed working
to our regular five-year planning process. our team and stakeholders to understand with Synth and Sander. It was a great
SJS Strategy was able to bring our diverse our needs and create a tailored scenario process and quality delivery; and all
team together to stretch our frame of planning solution. Synth and Sander were within a tight timeframe.”
refence and pressure test the assumptions focused on engaging in a high energy and
that underpinned our strategy. This was collaborative way throughout the project.
exactly what we were looking for and We found their approach to be uniquely
certainly not business as usual!” engaging and inclusive; delivering quality
results beyond our requirements.”
17ABOUT
SJS STRATEGY
SJS Strategy is a Melbourne-based
scenario planning consultancy that
helps organisations explore, adapt
and thrive in a changing world.
Founded in 2019, we help leadership
teams create structure in uncertainty
about the future so they can align,
make confident decisions and fast-
track their strategic planning.
Our clients work in the public, private,
academic and not-for-profit sectors.
For more information, visit
sjsstrategy.com.au
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