Scotland and New England - Our Scottish Future
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Scotland and New England
Agenda
Scottish Values
New England and Scotland
New Britain?
2When placed on a scale, a large ‘Middle Scotland’ that sits between the two
equally sized Unionist and Nationalist camps comes into focus
How would you vote if there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should Scotland be an independent country?’ 1,2
% of All Scots
Increasing Intensity of Support for Independence (0-10 scale)1
26% 2% 3% 3% 4% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 22%
2% 3% 1%
4% 6% 4%
9% 9% 2% 8%
Would not vote
18%
14% 6% Don’t know
19% No
21%
46% Yes
35%
21%
94% 93% 60%
95% 95%
16%
25% 86%
81%
70%
54%
38%
11% 31%
11%
6% 5%
1%
Unionists ‘Middle Scotland’ Nationalists
(c.30%) (c.40%) (c.30%)
1. 1,000 Scots were polled between the 7th and 8th of May 2021. Responses were weighted to census figures on age, gender, education level, and recorded 2021 vote in the Scottish Parliamentary elections
2. Polling Question: ‘How would you vote if there was a referendum tomorrow with the question 'Should Scotland be an independent country'?’ Cross cut with ‘On a scale of 0-10 where 0 is 'strongly against' and 10 is 'strongly in favour', what is your view on whether
Scotland should be an independent country?’, Unionists = responses 0-1, Middle Scotland = responses 2-8, Nationalists = 9-10
Source: OSF Exit Poll May 2021, OSF Analysis
3‘Middle Scotland’ is young, female, and progressive/Remain; she identifies
both as patriotically Scottish and meaningfully British
Segments Overview1,2
Unionists Middle Scotland Nationalists
Average HH Income £38k £36k £48k
Demography
% Graduates 20% 27% 30%
% Under 35 14% 51% 25%
% Female 56% 56% 39%
Identity (/10)
Scottish3 6.4 7.6 9.0
British3 8.1 5.6 3.8
European3 3.1 3.9 5.8
2014 % Yes4 4% 46% 86%
History
Voting
2016 Remain5 48% 68% 75%
2021 Turnout6 84% 52% 86%
1. 1,000 Scots were polled between the 7th and 8th of May 2021. Responses were weighted to census figures on age, gender, education level, and recorded 2021 vote in the Scottish Parliamentary elections
2. Segments based on following ‘On a scale of 0-10 where 0 is 'strongly against' and 10 is 'strongly in favour', what is your view on whether Scotland should be an independent country?’, Unionists = responses 0-1, Middle Scotland = responses 2-8, Nationalists = 9-
10
3. Cross Cut Polling Question: On a scale of 0-10, how strongly do you identify with the following personal identities? A) Scottish, B) British, C) European; average taken for each segment
4. Cross Cut Polling Question: Thinking back to the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum, how did you vote? Asked to all in segment that voted in the 2014 referendum; % that voted Yes to become independent
5. Cross Cut Polling Question: Thinking back to the 2016 EU referendum, how did you vote? Asked to all in segment that voted in the 2016 EU referendum; % that voted to remain In EU
6. Cross Cut Polling Question: Did you vote in the Scottish Election held on Thursday May 6 th across Scotland? % of segment that voted
Source: OSF Exit Poll May 2021, OSF Analysis
4Scots of all persuasions strongly believe in diversity, tolerance and equality
Below are a number of statements. For each, please say how important or unimportant those statements are to you feeling proud
to be Scottish
100% 100% 100% 100%
%
46% 45%
50%
54%
33%
37% 30%
32%
7%
7%
8%
7% 12% 9%
7% 6%
2% 1% 4% 4%
We are a Tolerant Country We are a Country that Values We Value Diversity as a Every Citizen, Irrespective of Colour
Freedom & Liberty Country has Equal Rights in our Country
Blank
5
A4Agenda
Scottish Values
New England and Scotland
New Britain?
6In his 'letter to England', Gareth Southgate set out a similar take on the state
of the English nation…
The ‘Southgate Values’ of Englishness
"In England we've spent a bit of time being a bit lost as
to what our modern identity is and hopefully people can
connect with us. We have the chance to affect
something bigger than ourselves."
“I understand that on this island, we have a desire to
protect our values and traditions — as we should — but
that shouldn’t come at the expense of introspection and
progress.”
I have a responsibility to the wider community to use
my voice, and so do the players.
It’s their duty to continue to interact with the public on
matters such as equality, inclusivity and racial injustice,
while using the power of their voices to help put
debates on the table, raise awareness and educate.
7…And is supported by a vast majority of English people
The ‘Southgate Values’ of Englishness
Below are a number of statements. For each, please say how
important or unimportant those statements are to you feeling
proud to be English
2% 5%
We are a
44% 39%
Tolerant Country
10%
We are a 1% 5%
Country that Values 38% 49%
Freedom and Liberty 6%
We Value Diversity
4% 13% 6% 40% 36%
as a Country
Every Citizen, 8%
Irrespective of Colour,
6% 35% 47%
Has Equal Rights
In Our Country 3%
8The Southgate Values of Englishness are equally applicable to Welsh- and
Scottish-ness
Below are a number of statements. For each, please say how important or unimportant those statements are to you feeling proud
to be [English/Scottish/Welsh]
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
%
39% 39% 36%
45% 43%
46% 49% 48% 47%
50%
54% 55%
40%
44% 43% 33% 35%
37% 35% 35% 30%
38% 32% 27%
6% 7% 6%
6% 6% 7% 6%
5% 6%
8%
5% 7% 13% 12% 13%
10% 9% 8% 8% 9% 7%
7% 6% 6%
2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4%
England Scotland Wales England Scotland Wales England Scotland Wales England Scotland Wales
We are a Tolerant Country We are a Country that Values We Value Diversity as a Every Citizen, Irrespective of Colour
Freedom & Liberty Country has Equal Rights in our Country
Blank
9
A4An Englishness manifested with ‘Southgate’s Values’ is far more likely to be
positively received by ‘Nationalists’ and ‘Middle Scotland’
Below are a number of scenarios about England. For each, could you say whether, if that Much more positive Don’t know A little less positive
scenario happened, you would feel more or less warm towards England? A little more positive No change Much less positive
% By ‘Scotland’
13% 10%
16% 16% 18% 18% 19% 19%
22% 23%
29% 27%
15%
23% 21%
27% 19% 19%
29% 27%
5% 5% 36% 30%
26% 29% 6% 35%
13%
13% 32%
14%
5%
7% 6%
52% 50% 14% 28%
48%
35% 32% 9%
31% 30% 27%
30%
4%
19% 4%
7%
3% 7% 6% 17%
5% 5% 5% 3% 5%
5% 5% 8% 7%
4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4%
Unionist Middle Nationalist Unionist Middle Nationalist Unionist Middle Nationalist Unionist Middle Nationalist
England was represented
England was perceived as doing by people like Gareth
England was perceived as England was perceived as being
more to offer equal rights to all Southgate and Marcus
being more tolerant more respectful of diversity
citizens irrespective of their race Rashford, instead of the
current U.K Government
10When placed on a 10 point scale, the English, Welsh and Scottish electorates have
remarkably similar values
The UK’s ‘Ethos’ (0=Left; 10 = Right)
Equality vs Meritocracy Pluralism
40 40
England
35 35
Wales
30 30
Scotland
25 25
20 20
15 15
0 = Even if most people think something is right, that
10 0 = I want Britain to be a society where inequality is reduced, 10 doesn’t always mean we should do it
and everybody has a similar quality of life and wealth 10 = We should do what most people think is best,
5 10 = I want Britain to be a society where the best people who 5 even if it means some people are worse off
work the hardest can take a high share of our wealth
0 0
0-1 2-4 5 6-8 9-10 0-1 2-4 5 6-8 9-10
Borders Race
40
40
35
35
30 30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10 0 = I want to live in a country with open borders that 10 0 = Britain is a structurally racist society where ethnic minorities always get
welcomes in the rest of the world
5 much worse treatment as the white British population
10 = I want to live in a country with closed borders, that 5 10 = There are no barriers at all to ethnic minorities succeeding in Britain
looks after those who were born here first
0 0
0-1 2-4 5 6-8 9-10 0-1 2-4 5 6-8 9-10
11Each of the regions and nations share common priorities of supporting the
NHS, managing an aging population, educating the next generation, and
fighting climate change…
Which of the following things do you think are the most important for Britain to focus on over the next decade?
47%
Making the NHS the best healthcare system in the world 42%
41%
32%
26%
26%
Ensuring that old people can retire and live with dignity 27%
23%
28%
Making sure every child has the best education possible 22% 26%
18%
24% Common Telos across the UK
Reducing the UK’s carbon emissions to zero 23%
23%
21%
23% There are strong ‘lowest common
Reducing the inequalities between different parts of the UK 21%
19% denominators’ across all the regions
22% and groups of the UK
24%
Improving pay and conditions in all jobs 19%
20% – Investment in the NHS
21%
16%
18% – Dignified Retirement for Old People
Reducing the national debt 20%
20%
14% – Fighting Climate Change
Making every neighbourhood safe 13% 21%
22%
12% – Reducing inequality of opportunity
14%
Signing trade deals with the rest of the world 15% and improving pay
15%
14%
Fighting racism 12%
13% Whilst this could be true for all
12% countries, the UK has several
10%
12% institutions that it can use to achieve
Increasing our national prosperity 12%
14%
10% 15% these together – eg the NHS, the
Forming a closer relationship with the European Union 11% Pound, the Law Courts
12%
9%
Giving Scotland and Wales the choice to become independent countries 6% 20%
Wales
7%
9% 12% Scotland
Reducing the impact of drug and alcohol addiction 10%
8% England
7%
8%
Fighting homophobia and transphobia 6% London
11%
12Each of the regions and nations share common priorities of supporting the
NHS, managing an aging population, educating the next generation, and
fighting climate change…
Which of the following things do you think are the most important for Britain to focus on over the next decade? (% in Top 3)1
East of Yorkshire and
East Midlands London North East North West South East South West West Midlands
Wales Scotland England England the Humber
Making the Making the Making the Making the Making the Making the Making the Making the Making the Making the Making the Making the
NHS the best NHS the best NHS the best NHS the best NHS the best NHS the best NHS the best NHS the best NHS the best NHS the best NHS the best NHS the best
1 healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare
system in the system in the system in the system in the system in the system in the system in the system in the system in the system in the system in the system in the
world world world world world world world world world world world world
Making sure Making sure
Ensuring that Reducing the Ensuring that Ensuring that Ensuring that Ensuring that Ensuring that Ensuring that Reducing the Ensuring that
every child has every child has
old people can UK's carbon old people can old people can old people can old people can old people can old people can UK's carbon old people can
2 the best the best
retire and live emissions to retire and live retire and live retire and live retire and live retire and live retire and live emissions to retire and live
education education
with dignity zero with dignity with dignity with dignity with dignity with dignity with dignity zero with dignity
possible possible
Reducing the Making sure Making sure
Ensuring that Ensuring that Reducing the Ensuring that Reducing the Reducing the Reducing the
inequalities Improving pay Making every every child has every child has
old people can old people can UK's carbon old people can UK's carbon UK's carbon UK's carbon
3 retire and live retire and live emissions to retire and live emissions to
between and conditions neighbourhood
emissions to emissions to
the best the best
different parts in all jobs safe education education
with dignity with dignity zero with dignity zero zero zero
of the UK possible possible
Making sure Making sure Making sure Making sure Reducing the
Reducing the Reducing the Ensuring that
every child has Making every Improving pay Making every every child has every child has every child has inequalities
UK's carbon UK's carbon Reducing the old people can
4 emissions to emissions to
the best neighbourhood and conditions neighbourhood
national debt
the best the best the best
retire and live
between
education safe in all jobs safe education education education different parts
zero zero with dignity
possible possible possible possible of the UK
Reducing the Making sure Making sure Reducing the
Reducing the
Improving pay inequalities Making every every child has Improving pay every child has Making every inequalities Making every
Reducing the UK's carbon Reducing the
5 and conditions between neighbourhood
national debt
the best and conditions the best
emissions to
neighbourhood
national debt
between neighbourhood
in all jobs different parts safe education in all jobs education safe different parts safe
zero
of the UK possible possible of the UK
Issues not in Top 5 anywhere include: Forming a closer relationship with the EU, signing trade deals, Fighting racism, fighting homophobia and
transphobia, Increasing national prosperity, Reducing the impact of drug and alcohol addition, Giving Scotland and Wales the choice to become
independent
13Agenda
Scottish Values
New England and Scotland
New Britain?
14Scots want co-operation, not confrontation between UK and Scottish
institutions
Strongly Unionist
To what extent do you agree with the following statement on cooperation? Middle Scotland
Net score (agree / disagree) with option, All Scots, %1,2 Strongly Nationalist
1
86%
I want the UK and Scottish governments to
54%
All Scots want to see cooperate better in areas that affect my life
62%
greater cooperation
across major policy A more productive and collaborative 88%
areas and messaging relationship between the Scottish
53%
to build a productive and UK governments would be good
for Scotland 38%
relationship for
Scotland… 83%
There needs to be greater alignment of policy
and messaging on key issues such as COVID 47%
between the two governments
37%
2
…and all feel this is The best way for the UK government to
71%
make a case for the Union would be to
the best case for the encourage better cooperation with Scottish 46%
Union; articulating institutions and be more inclusive of
43%
superiority by the UK Scottish views
is unlikely to convince 53%
The best way for the UK government to make a
the Nationalists, or case for the Union would be to demonstrate 19%
much of ‘Middle how it is better than the Scottish government
-10%
Scotland’
1. 1,000 Scots were polled between the 7th and 8th of May 2021. Responses were weighted to census figures on age, gender, education level, and recorded 2021 vote in the Scottish Parliamentary elections’
2. Polling Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statement on cooperation; cross cut by Polling Question: ‘On a scale of 0-10 where 0 is 'strongly against' and 10 is 'strongly in favour' what is your view on whether Scotland should be an independent
country?’, Unionists = responses 0-1, Middle Scotland = responses 2-8, Nationalists = 9-10, excludes non respondents,
Source: OSF Exit Poll May 2021, OSF Analysis
15…Across all major policy areas
I want more cooperation to/for…
Net score (agree / disagree) with option, All Scots,1,2
Economic Recovery & Job Creation 66%
Reduce poverty 65%
NHS and Social Care Improvement 65%
Crime and Terrorism 65%
Better Education Opportunities 62%
Climate Crisis and Green Transition 61%
Transport Links Across UK 59%
Solve the drugs crisis 59%
1. 1,000 Scots were polled between the 7th and 8th of May 2021. Responses were weighted to census figures on age, gender, education level, and recorded 2021 vote in the Scottish Parliamentary elections’
2. Polling Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statement that ‘I want more cooperation for’; net score calculated as difference between % that agree and % that disagree
Source: OSF Exit Poll May 2021, OSF Analysis
16We are seeing a far more plural sense of geographic identity right across the
UK – not just in Scotland
Below is a list of different ways that someone might identify themselves. For British
each, could you give a score from 0 to 10 based on how you personally National (English/Scottish/Welsh)
identify, where 0 = ‘I do not identify with this at all’, and 10 = ‘This is an Regional (Northern/Southern/LondonerHome Town or City)
important part of my identity’ World Citizen’ (Control)
9.0
8.1
7.7 7.7 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.6
7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3
7.5
7.3
7.1 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.2
6.9 7.0 6.9
6.7 6.7
5.9 6.0 6.1 5.9
5.9 ‘Meaningful
5.6 5.5 5.4
5.2
5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.1 4.8
4.7
4.4 4.4
4.1
Unionists Middle Nationalists Wales London Yorkshire North North South South West East of East
Scotland and the East West East West Midlands England Midlands
Humber
Middle Scotland has meaningful British, In the North of England and London Regions with less clear historical identity still
Scottish and Local Identity ‘Tridentity’ of ‘Northern/Londoner + see themselves as equally English and
English + British’ is common British (common across Brexit divide)
17Voters across the UK share grievances about Westminster government…
Thinking about politics in the UK. Would you say that politicians and political parties now do a better or worse or job at
representing you than politicians and political parties in the past used to? Much better Neither better nor worse Slightly worse
Slightly better Don’t know Much worse
1 1
5 3 2 3 4 3
7 3 3 3 2 1
4 5 7
8 10 10 10
7 11 6
21
12 29
20
20 25 34
22 25 32
28 27
31
18
23
18
15 19
15 23
13 19
19 21 24
16
23 14
40
37 38 30
28
32 16 21
32 26
28 28
21
20 18 19 21
16 16 18
12 11 14 11 12 10
Total Con Lab LD Leave Remain Wales Total SNP Con Lab Yes No
England Scot
OC&C Template
18…And there is strong agreement – from all voters – that devolved Leaders
understand and can represent them better than Westminster
And would you say that your elected mayor understands you better or
worse than national Members of Parliament in Westminster?
English Voters with an elected mayor, % The Ingredients of ‘New Britain
Economically Progressive: Most voters –
across political and national divides – are
18% 17% 20%
26% against austerity and in favour of the
wealthy paying a fairer share towards a
more equal economy
27% 27% Egalitarian on race, religion, sex &
34% gender: The UK has the most tolerance for
30% diversity across Western OECD nations
Culturally centrist: on law & order,
defence and our history and traditions
34% 32%
Locally Manifested: insistent that local
33% 29% communities be empowered with the
control and resources to make levelling up
9% a reality
12%
5% 8%
4% 9%
9% 3% 4%
5% 2% 3%
Total Conservative Labour Lib Dem
A lot better About the same A little worse
A little better Don’t know A lot worse
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