What's This, a Whole New World Economic Order in the Making? - 2019 May Fabio Sdogati, MIP Politecnico di Milano - Centro ...

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What's This, a Whole New World Economic Order in the Making? - 2019 May Fabio Sdogati, MIP Politecnico di Milano - Centro ...
What’s This,
a Whole New World Economic Order in the Making?

2019 May

Fabio Sdogati, sdogati@mip.polimi.it
MIP Politecnico di Milano
What's This, a Whole New World Economic Order in the Making? - 2019 May Fabio Sdogati, MIP Politecnico di Milano - Centro ...
Table of Contents

0. Introductory evidence on the state of the economy

1. The Old World: 1955-2016 From National to Global Through International Fragmentation of
   Production

2. Belt and Road: 2013

3. Make America Great Again: 2016

4. From Global to Regional?

5. Conclusions

                                                                                             2
World conditions have deteriorated
and will continue doing so

World’s GDP (constant prices, % change):
6

5

4

3

2

1

0
      2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

-1

     Source: IMF’s WEO, October 2018
World conditions have deteriorated and
will continue doing so

World trade growth, YoY(exports, volumes, seasonally adjusted):

                    25%

                    20%
                              Average 2001-2008: +6%
                    15%

                    10%
                                                                                                                Average 2011-2018: +3%
  YoY growth rate

                     5%

                     0%

                    -5%

                    -10%

                    -15%

                    -20%

                    -25%
                           1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9
                            2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012    2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018

 Source: World Trade Monitor, CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis
Growth rates of GDP, major € countries, 2001-
2021

Expected cumulative rates of real GDP, 2001 – 2021:

  30

            24,9
  25
                             21,2
  20                                           18,5
                                                          17,3

  15                                                                13,6

  10

   5
                                                                               2

   0

                                                                                      -2,7
  -5
         Germania         Paesi Bassi        Spagna      Austria   Francia   Grecia   Italia

 Source: Corriere della Sera on IMF’s WEO October 2018
Table of Contents

0. Introductory evidence on the state of the economy

1. The Old World: 1955-2016 From National to Global Through
   International Fragmentation of Production

2. Belt and Road: 2013

3. Make America Great Again: 2016

4. From Global to Regional?

5. Conclusions

                                                              6
International Fragmentation of Production and Global Value Chains

The Integration of Production has changed the international division of labor:

As recently as 30 years ago, products were assembled in one country, using
inputs from that same country. Measuring trade was thus easy. 2011 is very
different. Manufacturing is driven by global supply chains, while most
imports should be stamped “made globally”, not “made in China”, or
similar. This is not an academic distinction. (...) It isn’t just phones.
Automobiles, aircraft, electronics – even clothing – are increasingly made in
many countries. No car or commercial jet could now be built with inputs
from just one country. Business leaders also know that new trade frictions
are especially damaging in an era of global supply chains.

                 (Pascal Lamy, “Made in China’ tells us little about global trade”
                                            January 24 2011, Financial Times)

                                                                                 7
International Fragmentation of Production and Global Value Chains

     Falling                                          Falling                                        Internet
  protectionist                                   transportation
   pressures                                           costs

 1.                                                                                       2.
                                                   Global
 Global search for                                                                        Global search for
 competitive                                       supply                                 markets
 factors of
 prosuction                                        chains

                     Growing growth rates in EM                Falling rowth rates in high per
                     economies                                 capita income countries

                                                                                                                8
International Fragmentation of Production and Global Value Chains

Share of Exported and Imported Intermediate Inputs Over Total Exports and
Imports Respectively, by Country, 2011

      Singapore
       Malaysia
     Philippines
      Indonesia
           Korea
           Japan
     Hong Kong
    Netherlands
  United States
         Ireland
       Thailand                                                                 Import
 Czech Republic                                                                 Export
            India
          Poland
             Italy
Slovak Republic
United Kingdom
       Germany
          France
         Mexico
           China
                     0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%

Source: OECD, September 2017
                                                                                     9
Trade in tasks: the case of the iPhone

Source: Dedrick, J., Kraemer, K. L., & Linden, G. (2010). The Distribution of Value in the Mobile Phone Supply
                                                                                                                 10
Table of Contents

1. The Old World: 1955-2016 From National to Global Through International
  Fragmentation of Production

2. Belt and Road: 2013

3. Make America Great Again: 2016

4. From Global to Regional?

5. Conclusions

                                                                            12
China’s proposed
                               Europa
                                                                     Europa        Belt & Road initiative
                                                                     Centrale
                  Europa

                      Mar Mediterraneo
                                                                                           CINA
                                                     Golfo Persico

                                                                              Asia
                                                                           Meridionale

                                                            Asia                                         Mar Cinese
                                                         Occidentale                                     Meridionale
                                                                                             Asia
                                                                                         Sud Orientale
                                                               Oceano Indiano
                                                                                                         Oceano Pacifico
                                                                                                          Meridionale

Fonte: FMI e China’s National Bureau of Statistics
One Belt, One Road Strategy in Action

Ranking of the countries with the highest share of outward FDI, 2016
             United States                                                                20,6%
                      China                                               12,6%
              Netherlands                                               12,0%
                      Japan                                     10,0%
     British Virgin Islands                            6,5%
                   Canada                       4,6%
    China, Hong Kong SAR                       4,3%
                    France                    3,9%
                    Ireland                3,1%
                      Spain               2,9%
                 Germany                2,4%                                                            Source: UNCTAD
              Luxembourg               2,2%
               Switzerland             2,1%
        Republic of Korea             1,9%
       Russian Federation             1,9%
           Cayman Islands             1,8%
                Singapore            1,6%
                   Sweden            1,6%
                        Italy        1,6%
                    Finland          1,6%
                                0%            5%              10%             15%   20%           25%
Table of Contents

1. The Old World: 1955-2016 From National to Global Through International
   Fragmentation of Production

2. Belt and Road: 2013

3. Make America Great Again: 2016

4. From Global to Regional?

5. Conclusions

                                                                            15
Guerra commerciale o schermaglie commerciali: una cronologia delle azioni
        dell’amministrazione Trump

Gennaio 2017         Gennaio 2018          1 giugno 2018                      1 luglio 2018 – Canada           6 luglio 2018                     4 agosto2018 -
                                           Tariffe sulle importazioni         Tariffa sulle importazioni       Importazioni dalla Cina           India
Trump non            Trump annuncia        da tutti i paesi                   dagli Stati Uniti                (Lista 1)                         Importazioni dalla
partecipa al         «America First»
                                           • 25% su acciaio                   • Valore $13 miliardi            • Valore di $50 miliardi          Cina (Lista 1)
World Economic       agenda al World
Forum di Davos       Economic Forum          importato                        • Tariffe: 25% sull’acciaio      • Tariffa: 25%                    • Valore di $241
                     di Davos              • 10% su alluminio                    e 10% su tutte le altre       • Prodotti cinesi                   milioni miliardi
                                             importato                           “commodity”                      industriali, prodotti non      • Tariffa: 50%
                                           Paesi esclusi: Corea del           • Prodotti: acciaio, whisky,        di consumo                     • Prodotti: motocicli
                                           Sud, Brasile, Argentina,              borse e altro ancora
                                           Australia

23 gennaio 2017                22 giugno 2018 -                  22 giugno 2018 –                  7 luglio 2018 – Cina                 30 agosto 2018
                               Messico                           Unione Europea                    Tariffa sulle importazioni           Importazioni dalla Cina
Ritiro degli Stati Uniti dai                                                                                                            (Lista 2)
                               Tariffa sulle importazioni        Tariffa sulle importazioni        dagli Stati Uniti
negoziati e dall'accordo di
Partenariato Trans-Pacifico    dagli Stati Uniti                 dagli Stati Uniti                 • Valore $34 miliardi                • Valore di $16 miliardi
                               • Valore di $3 miliardi           • Valore €2.8 miliardi            • Tariffa: 25%                       • Tariffa: 25%
                               • Tariffa 15%, 20%, 25%           • Tariffe: 10%,25%, 50%           • Prodotti: Elenco 1 che             • Tecnologie industriali
                               • Prodotti:carne di maiale,       • Prodotti: mais, grano,             include 545 articoli                 rilevanti
                                 formaggio, mele,                  succo d'arancia, mirtilli e
                                 prosciutto, mirtilli rossi,       altro ancora
                                 patate, whiskey,
                                 alluminio, acciaio,…

                                                                                                                                                            17
Commercial Skirmishes or Commercial War? From NAFTA to USMCA

• On Augurst 27, 2018 the United States reached an agreement with Mexico meant to establish
  new commercial rules originally making up the North America free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

• There are two articoles of the Agreement that will likely strongly affect production and trade of
  automobiles:
    • 75% of the value of parts and componenets assembled in US cars and vehicles musy come from within
      North America (local content requirement rule);

    • Between 40 and 45 percent of of the value incorporated in a vehivle must originate in plants where
      workers are receiving a gross wage of at least $ 16/h.

• What about Canada? Negotiations are ongoing…. And Mr. Trump has not made it a secret that
  canada may be excluded from the Agreement.

                                                                                                           18
In the way of a conclusion

• The last 70 years have been characterized by the progressive liberalization of world trade in the
  framework of the multilateralism desired by the USA
• With the Trump Presidency, a process of deep revision of US trade policy has begun, increasingly
  characterized by decreasing degrees of multilateralism and the use of tariffs and trade restrictions
  country by country
• The global distribution of the production chains makes the protectionist attack to a country an
  element of concern for all its suppliers. It follows that the depressive effect of the duties on the
  economy will not be limited to the target country alone
• We believe that the USMCA represents an important novelty in the way commercial policy will be
  implemented in the years to come, and the way it will affect the global character of supply chains:
  from globalization to regionalization
• We highlight these global risks and opportunities in the current macroeconomic scenario:
    •   The growth in world demand for goods and services will remain weak, and we believe that it will be in particular that coming
        from the United States
    •   To diversify the end markets in a radical way, paying close attention to the emerging countries of South-East Asia, both as
        importers, both as production places
    •   Investing in product innovation, as all manufacturers will try to differentiate their product (upwards) in order to 'circumvent'
        the tariff barriers

                                                                                                                                      19
Suggested Readings

The comparative advantage and international specialization of countries
•   Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., and Melitz, M. J. (2014). International Economics: Theory and Policy.
•   10° Edition. Pearson International Edition [edizione italiana: Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., and Melitz, M. J.
•   (2012). Economia Internazionale 1 & 2. 5° Edizione. Hoepli].
International competitiveness of Italian firms
•   Boeri, T., Faini, R., Ichino, A., Pisauro, G. and Scarpa, C. (2005). Oltre il Declino. Il Mulino.
•   (suggested chapter: 1).
•   Gallino, L. (2003). La Scomparsa dell’Italia Industriale. Einaudi.
•   Saltari, E. and Travaglini, G. (2006). Le Radici del Declino Economico: Occupazione e Produttività in Italia
•   nell'Ultimo Decennio. Utet.
•   Giunta, A. and Rossi, S. (2017). Che cosa sa fare l’Italia. Laterza.
World production and new commerciali policies
•   WTO (2017). Global Value Chain development report. Measuring and analyzing the impact of GVCs
    on economic development. Available at: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/gvcs_report_2017.pdf .
•   Lamy, P. (2011). “Made in China” Tells Us Little about Global Trade. Financial Times, January, 24. Available at: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4d37374c-
    27fd-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html .
•   Baldwin, R. and Lopez-Gonzalez, J. (2015). Supply Chain Trade: a portrait of global patterns and several
    testable hypotheses. The World Economy , 38 (11), 1682-1721.
•   Langiu, D. and F. Sdogati, https://cm.alumni.polimi.it/news/could-a-regional-trade-deal-disrupt-global-supply-chains/
•   Altomonte, C. (2012). L’internazionalizzazione. Via privilegiata alla crescita. Impresa & Stato, 94, 35-43.
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