SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 IN BOTSWANA - ANALYSIS BRIEF NO.1 06 MAY 2020
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
OF COVID-19 IN BOTSWANA
ANALYSIS BRIEF NO.1
06 MAY 2020
1 | Page
Key Messages
Health
● Given the capacity of the healthcare system, it is critical that case numbers for COVID-19
infection cases be reduced through early measures [JB2] such as border closures prior to first
reported case as well as subsequently instituting a nation-wide lockdown. Important to ramp
up testing and rapidly build inpatient care capacity to manage the potential influx of infected
patients needing hospitalization.
● For prevention and containment measures to be effective, open and transparent
communication is essential as well as crucial to include all people residing in the country,
regardless of their legal status.
● The efforts intended to minimize the spread of the virus, such as containment measures,
including social distancing and lockdown, closing of schools, the prohibition of public
gatherings and closure of non-essential business and economic activities, will have far
reaching social and economic consequences.
Social
● Significant unemployment is expected due to major economic contraction. Informal workers
and those vulnerably employed need greater protections. Ensure better targeting of these
and other vulnerable groups including women, PWDs, elderly, and migrants.
● COVID-19 exposed vulnerabilities and inequities prevalent in the current system. Existing
supportive programmes that prove successful in narrowing inequalities should be expanded.
At the same time, gaps and short-comings should be addressed. Vulnerable and marginalized
populations should remain a priority when devising response and recovery plans and
strategies.
Economy
● While Botswana has strong macroeconomic fundamentals, the economy is expected to
contract by an estimated 13.1 percent due to COVID-19 impact on mining (-33.6 percent);
trade, hotel and restaurants (-32.2 percent); manufacturing (-10 percent); social & personal
services (-4.8 percent), and transport & communications (-4.1 percent). It is critical that
workers and critical businesses in these sectors be protected until the economy opens up.
● It is critical to have a clear national plan to open up critical sectors of the economy in a phased
manner using scientific evidence and employing and adapting international best practices to
local context.
Social Cohesion
● Identifying and addressing the needs of vulnerable populations and those left behind will be
a critical part of a successful response to, and recovery from the pandemic. The disabled,
2 | Page
those facing domestic violence, women, children, unemployed youth, detainees, migrants,
and people living with HIV/AIDs face a challenging set of added burdens due to COVID-19. It
will be important to quickly respond to their needs and have a viable plan for recovery.
● Building trust between government and the public will be critical to minimize the social and
economic impact of COVID-19. Provision of services and support to those who need it most;
access to justice; and consistent and clear communication on national response measures will
help cement social cohesion and greater trust.
Build Back Better
● Greater overall coordination is needed at all levels--country, regional and global—to minimize
the social and economic fallout. Building back better should include reassessing the existing
social contract and economic model. The ‘new normal’ that emerges from this crisis, should
be based on sustainable and inclusive practices that build resilience.
● The UN system is well equipped to support during each phase of the epidemic—preparation,
response, and recovery—through pooling resources and expertise.
3 | PageBackground
This paper provides a rapid analysis of the social and economic impact of COVID-19 on Botswana.
As the on-the-ground situation is evolving rapidly, this analysis is based on evidence (and associated
assumptions) at the time of writing. The purpose is to draw attention to the likely social and economic
implications of COVID-19 and identify supplementary measures, including supportive actions the UN
can take to alleviate the impact on people and the economy. This analysis also identifies medium to
longer-term measures that can put Botswana on a sustainable and resilient recovery pathway,
building back better.
On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 pandemic. As of
11 March 2020, there were 118,000 reported cases spanning 114 countries with over 4,000 fatalities.
It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach 100,000 cases, 11 days for the second 100,000,
and just four days for the third. As of 6 May there are over 3.6 million people infected globally, with
infections rising exponentially in many countries. Over 258,000 of those infected have died. Although
the virus reached Africa later than other parts of the world, the region is witnessing one of the fastest
percentage rise in cases.1 On 6 May it had over 39,900 cases and 1,193 deaths.2 In the SADC region,
South Africa, Tanzania, and Mauritius account for the majority of cases as well as deaths. However, a
lack of testing capacity in many countries suggests that these figures most likely understate the true
number of infections and deaths due to the virus. Unlike other epicentres, many of which comprise
high-income countries, Africa due to its weaker healthcare systems is ill prepared to face an onslaught
of the pandemic and therefore has to act swiftly and decisively to contain the spread of COVID-19.3
The COVID-19 pandemic is far more than a health crisis and has affected societies at their core,
jeopardizing lives and livelihoods for years to come. Although the impact of the pandemic will vary
from country to country, it is exacerbating and deepening pre-existing inequalities, exposing
vulnerabilities in our social, political, economic and biodiversity systems. Key development deficits
and structural fragilities have increased the risks for the most vulnerable in our societies, challenging
the progress made towards attaining the Sustainable Development Goals.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented levels of economic disruption. On 27 March, the
IMF stated that “the world is now in recession” and that the “length and depth of this recession
depends on two things: containing the virus, and having an effective, coordinated response to the
crisis.”4 In early April 2020, The IMF projected global growth to fall to -3 percent in 2020, amounting
1
Economic Commission of Africa (UNECA)
2 https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus-covid-19
3For example, according to the WHO Africa has less than 5 Intensive Care Unit beds per million people as compared
to 4000 in Europe. Also, there are less than 2,000 functional ventilators across 41 countries in Africa.
4
Franck, Thomas (2020). IMF chief Georgieva says the world is in a recession, containment will dictate strength of recovery. 27 March
2020. CNBC. Available at https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/imf-chief-georgieva-says-the-world-is-in-a-recession-containment-will-
dictate-strength-of-recovery.html
4 | Pageto a -6.3 percentage points revision from their January forecast.5 The Economic Commission for Africa
(ECA) projects 2020 growth in Africa to settle somewhere between -2.6 percent to 1.8 percent. Across
Africa the impact on poverty will be significant; between 5 and 29 million additional people will be
pushed into poverty. At least 19 million jobs will be lost across the continent.6 A significant amount of
economic activity across the continent is informal, and those employed in the informal economy are
among the most vulnerable to the ensuing socio-economic shock. Unlike many western and Asian
economies, countries in Africa also lack the fiscal space for financing supportive measures and are
dependent on external trade for food staples and essential goods, including critical medical supplies.
Botswana acted quickly and decisively to halt the spread of COVID-19, closing its borders on 24
March. After reporting its first confirmed case on 30 March, it declared a state of emergency and
subsequently imposed an initial 28-day lockdown on 2 April that led to further restrictions on
movement. As of 4 May, there have been 23 confirmed cases, 8 of whom have recovered, and one
death—one of the lowest rates in Africa, both in terms of reported cases and deaths. Beginning 7 May,
assuming infection remains at current level, the extreme social distancing restrictions are to be eased
in a phased manner. To date, approximately 7,700 tests have been conducted, which in per million
population terms is the 6th highest in Africa, but not sufficient to get a comprehensive sense of the
spread of the virus. The severity of the social and economic impact will depend on several inter-
connected internal and external factors, including (but not limited to), the success of the containment
strategy; the effectiveness and comprehensiveness of supportive measures and policies; available
fiscal resources; the impact on trading partners; and the ability to revive the economy while limiting
the spread of the virus. Much also depends on how the rest of the world fares, given the economy’s
reliance on tourism and the diamond industry.
Botswana’s strategy has been to contain the spread of COVID-19 through social-distancing, isolating
and quarantining cases, quality clinical care for infected clients, contact tracing and testing, and
restricting movement. While a strict lockdown is helping to contain the spread of the virus, the impact
on the lives of people, especially the poorest as well as the economy is significant. There is widespread
consensus that rigorously containing the spread of the virus is the most viable option and is likely to
minimize the longer-term social and economic impact. Other countries that acted swiftly to contain
the virus (i.e. Australia, Greece, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, and Vietnam) have been successful
in ‘flattening the case curve’ thus limiting the impact on their healthcare system. There are important
lessons to be picked up through the experience of these countries, especially with regard to (i)
aggressive and widespread testing, (ii) contact tracing, and (iii) clear and well-coordinated public
communication. The capacity of Botswana’s healthcare system is limited and will quickly reach its
limit, in the absence of quick and decisive containment measures, resulting in significant loss of life.
Therefore, it is critical that adequate effort be put into identifying policies and measures that minimize
the social and economic fallout, especially for the most vulnerable segments of the population.
5
IMF (2020). World Economic Outlook, April 2020. Last Accessed April 21
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020
6
ECA projections. Dated April 19th.
5 | PageFigure 1: Five Pillars of the UNDS Socio-Economic The analysis that follows takes it cue from the UN
Response Framework
framework for the immediate socio-economic
response to COVID-19. A primary concern of the
analysis is to gain a comprehensive understanding
of who we must reach. Following a quick mapping
of who may be the most impacted in this pandemic,
the analysis is structured according to the five
pillars of the UN Development System response,
namely (i) protecting health services and systems
during crisis; (ii) social protection and ensuring
basic services; (iii) protecting jobs, SMEs and the
most vulnerable and productive actors; (iv)
macroeconomic response and multilateral
collaboration; and (v) social cohesion and
community resilience.
The national response as it pertains to issues under
each of the five pillars is also presented. Finally, the
response to COVID-19 also presents an opportunity
to strengthen existing systems for a more
sustainable recovery. The policy options outlined
throughout the document are intended to inform
the plans for building back better. By building back
better, not only is Botswana likely to be on a more
stable footing in terms of achieving the SDGs, but
also more resilient and better prepared to face
future shocks.
0 THE PEOPLE WE MUST REACH
A guiding principle of the UN’s supportive actions is to ‘leave no one behind’. As noted above, the
pandemic is expected to exacerbate pre-existing inequalities and structural fragilities. Therefore, a
quick yet comprehensive mapping of those most at risk of being left behind is critical and must inform
the policy and programmatic responses to the pandemic to avoid a further regression on the road to
recovery and attainment of the SDGs.
Most of the world’s poor and food insecure live in rural areas, and although physical distance,
relative isolation, lower population density and their own production of food play in favour for rural
areas, rural areas are much less prepared to deal with the direct and indirect impact of the crisis.
People living in rural areas face greater barriers accessing essential services, including healthcare and
clean water. The government can only provide water infrastructure to areas gazetted for residence,
leaving out people who reside on farms and ungazetted lands. Approximately 38 percent of the rural
6 | Pagepopulation have access to electricity, and access to improved sanitation and clean cooking fuels
remain a challenge. With potentially extensive periods restricting movement, many rural residents are
left with limited access to essential goods and resources, further exacerbating their vulnerabilities.
Economic activity in rural areas, whether in self-employment or in wage labour, is primarily informal,
leaving them without recourse to wage subsidies or safety net measures. The income shock will
negatively affect the food security and nutrition of the poorest; as incomes fall and food prices
increase, poor households will reduce dietary diversity in favour of cheaper staples. For children,
adolescents, young people, pregnant women and lactating mothers this may not only have an impact
on their immediate health and protection, but their longer-term learning outcomes and ability to
thrive in society.
People in detention are more vulnerable to communicable diseases because they live in proximity
with one another, which increases the risk of person-to-person transmission of infectious disease, like
COVID-19. Prisoners and detainees live in confined and overcrowded environments and it is difficult
for staff and inmates to practice effective social distancing. Prisoners and detainees in many countries
live under conditions characterized by poor hygiene, insufficient or poor food nutrition, difficult
access to medical care, a lack of physical activities or education, as well as an inability to maintain
family ties, leading to stress and the weakening or suppression of their immune systems and the
inability to resist diseases.
Migrant workers and refugees are often overlooked in national response frameworks. These
vulnerable populations are more likely to engage in informal labour, have less savings, and therefore
have less overall capacity to cope in the face of economic shocks. Migrant workers and refugees are
also more likely to reside in informal settlements or poorer, urban neighbourhoods with limited access
to basic infrastructure and services.
People with disabilities (PWDs) are likely to see their existing disadvantages and inequality
amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2017 Botswana Demographic Survey estimates a total of
90,945 individuals with disabilities in Botswana, which is 4.22 percent of the total population. People
with disabilities are among the most marginalized and disadvantaged in Botswana. The percentage
of people with disabilities in Botswana living below the poverty datum line (2014/15) was 35.8
percent.7 Due to the restriction on movements, PWDs and other members of society are most likely
to be out of work and income, especially those involved in the agriculture and fishery sector and the
informal economy, which will potentially have long-term consequences on their livelihoods. With
most of these being women, the impact could be critical at the household level with food and material
insecurity being a major challenge. As a consequence of their disability, people may find they have
unequal access to information on prevention and response measures as well as the services available.
They are often excluded from the decision-making spaces in crisis, yet are often more vulnerable to
exposure as they depend on caregivers for daily tasks or require regular healthcare and treatment.
Women find themselves in a particularly vulnerable situation as crises unfold. Economic pressures
not only tend to affect women more, they also experience the increased burden of unpaid family care,
constitute a significant number of those serving as frontline health care workers in the COVID-19
response as well as being at a greater risk of gender-based violence. One in three women in Botswana
have experienced gender-based-violence (GBV) in their lifetime. Globally, as well as nationally,
7
National Development Plan 11.
7 | Pageincidents of GBV have seen a sharp increase with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and related
prevention and containment measures, often leaving women trapped at home with the perpetrators.
Furthermore, structural fragilities and bottlenecks in the provision of GBV prevention and response
services are impacted by the increased strain on the healthcare system and emergency responders.
Youth and children account for the majority of the population of Botswana. Pre-COVID youth
unemployment was a serious concern with over one-third of young people aged 20 – 24 years
unemployed compared to a national average of 20 percent unemployment.8 Following the economic
shock of COVID-19 and without additional opportunities for income generation, youth will remain
dependent on their parents and immediate family much longer. With the COVID-19 pandemic and
closure of schools and education institutions, children and youth’s opportunities to obtain their
expected learning outcomes are also curtailed with a potential negative impact on their longer-term
opportunities for income generation and fulfilment of their true potential. As with women, youth and
children remain particularly vulnerable to domestic violence and abuse in a context of increased risks,
tension and stress in the household. Furthermore, closure of non-formal opportunities deprives young
people of social engagement with their peers and may contribute to increased levels of mental health
and well-being issues.
People living with HIV/AIDS may be at greater risk during a health crisis due to weak immune
systems. Although little is yet known of the impact of COVID-19 on people living with HIV/AIDS, it is a
pre-existing condition that lowers immunity and as such poses a particular concern for Botswana
where the HIV/AIDS rate amongst people aged 15 to 49 years is 20.3 percent.9 With the currently
limited access to sexual and reproductive health services and products, people, and in particular
youth, are at heightened risk of HIV infections.
Elderly and people with pre-existing health conditions are known to be at significantly higher risk of
developing severe illness when contracting COVID-19. Botswana has a relatively young population
with only 5.4% of the population aged 65 or above.10 However, when also looking at pre-existing
health conditions, the vulnerable constitute a much larger group. Often these people share living
spaces with their extended families and social distancing cannot be easily implemented. This group
may also be reliant on their caregivers to safely access food, basic supplies, and medicine to support
their physical health and social care.
1 HEALTH FIRST: Protecting Health Services and Systems during the crisis
The following section provides an overview of the key pillars of the health system impacted by the
COVID-19 pandemic and the potential implications for people’s access to essential services and quality
care. The likely spike in demand for acute healthcare, places significant risk on capacities to maintain
essential lifesaving services as well as health service delivery to address preventable or treatable
8 Botswana Core Welfare Indicators Survey, 2013.
9 UNAIDS, 2019.
10 Statistics Botswana (2017). Botswana Demographic Survey.
8 | Pageconditions. When health systems become overwhelmed, deaths from the outbreak itself can fade in
the face of challenges emerging from lack of capacity to treat people through regular service delivery.
Service Delivery
Inequity in access to healthcare services for rural dwellers is likely to be exacerbated by the COVID-
19 pandemic. An estimated 84 percent of the population lives within a five (5) kilometre radius from
a healthcare facility, but disaggregation by urban/rural area reveals inequitable distribution of health
facilities. The Government of Botswana (GOB) has earmarked eight facilities across the country as
isolation and case management centres with varying capacities translating to 1 facility per
administrative district of different population sizes11. Although Botswana has a youthful population
with a median age of 24 years and therefore at lesser risk for severe COVID-19 cases associated with
the older population groups (179035 people in Botswana are older that 60 years), the significant
burden of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) may result in an increased
demand for inpatient management of cases placing greater demand for more isolation centres with
further pressure on the health system to also ensure continuity of essential health services. Further,
at an estimated 18 hospital beds per population of 10,000 and 120 intensive care beds across the
country, Botswana has a lower inpatient care capacity compared to other middle-income countries in
the region. Although the country is in the early phase of the outbreak, evidence from other countries
further along the pandemic curve would indicate the need to establish surge capacity for hospital beds
and inpatient care capabilities. Furthermore, epidemiological and biological surveillance capacity
through testing, diagnosis and contact tracing influences the ability of any country to contain the
pandemic. Botswana has trained fewer than 30 laboratory personnel to process COVID-19 specimens
currently yielding a capacity of up to 500 tests per day. Despite the country having a network of
medical laboratories (both public and private), the processing of specimens remains centralised to
two laboratories (National Reference Laboratory and the Botswana Harvard Partnership HIV
Reference Laboratory). This limited COVID-19 testing and diagnostic capacity presents a significant
risk to fully understanding the pandemic curve in Botswana and thus managing an effective response.
The requirement for a travel permit to seek healthcare services may hinder access to essential health
services and ultimately increase the pressure on emergency services or at worst, increase mortality.
Access to maternal healthcare is a particular concern alongside the limited supply of sexual and
reproductive health commodities in terms of the potential numbers of unintended pregnancies,
including teenage pregnancies, and a rise in newly acquired HIV infections.
Health workforce
One of the major bottlenecks the country’s health system faces is the availability and geographic
coverage of qualified health professionals. Botswana has a doctor to population ratio of 5.27 doctors
per population of 10,000, representing half of the WHO recommended 10 doctors per 10,000. The
density of nurses and midwives to the population is estimated at 54 per 10,000. Urban/rural
disaggregates reveal significant disparities in availability of qualified healthcare professionals. The
inevitable rationalization and equitable distribution of healthcare workers in response to COVID-19 in
11District populations (Southern 222411, South East 112347, Kweneng 385729, Kgatleng 110774, Central 646086, North
East 71470, North West 209557, Ghanzi 54752, Kgalagadi 59042), Statistics Botswana Population Projections 2011 -2026.
9 | Pagea country already facing shortage of skilled health workers will very likely impact the continuity of
essential health services, including sexual and reproductive health (SRH), HIV and GBV services
particularly in rural areas. Further, the nationwide closure of all educational institutions may affect
the pool of healthcare professionals by negatively affecting the supply of graduates from health
training institutions.
Health information
The challenges of availability, openness, dissemination, use and uptake of timely, disaggregated and
quality data in Botswana are well documented, including in the health sector. Botswana struggles
with limited health informatics infrastructure and human capacities including monitoring and
evaluation personnel, epidemiologists and biostatisticians, and data/ICT specialists. Information silos
across the health system are institutionalized using two distinct patient management systems, with
no interface capabilities across healthcare levels and from clinic-to-clinic. The combination of these
factors represents a missed opportunity for harnessing integrated routine data for real-time disease
surveillance which creates a significant blind spot for policy-makers who have to make timely critical
decisions. Limited availability of timely disaggregated data will limit ability to identify and respond to
hotspots with vulnerable populations and underserved locations.
Medical products, vaccines and technology
The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting on local availability of health products with disruptions in
global supply chains affecting availability of key raw materials and ingredients, finished health
products, logistics, and shipping services. There is currently limited information on the in-country
availability and stock levels of critical health equipment and supplies including personal protective
equipment (PPE), essential medicines, testing kits and reagents among others to assess the country’s
state of readiness to respond to COVID-19. Quantification and forecasting are erratic, coupled with a
weak Logistics Management Information Systems (LMIS) leading to frequent stock outs of essential
SRH commodities. This challenge is expected to extend to essential medicines as the country scales
up multi-month dispensing of chronic disease medications to minimize individuals’ contact with health
facilities. It is also important to underscore the attention placed in Botswana to keep in focus the
need to also address the double burden of HIV/AIDS and NCDs.
Health financing
The total cost of establishing surge capacity for medical supplies including essential medicines,
reagents, health sector response to GBV, test kits, hospital beds, acute and intensive care beds and
equipment is yet unknown. The Government of Botswana (GoB) spends at least US$86 per capita12
on health with about 4 percent of the total health expenditures generated through out-of-pocket
payments. This enables access to needed health services without significant financial hardships for a
large proportion of the population and this is anticipated to remain so during the COVID-19 response.
Nonetheless, while the financial requirements for the Ministry of Health and Wellness to ensure
COVID-19 Preparedness and Response are estimated at US$ 1,500,000, this may prove to be a
12
WHO Global Health Expenditure Database.
10 | Pageconservative budget. Such unanticipated increases in health expenditure may prompt diversion of
funding from non-COVID 19 related budget lines, calling into question the sustainability of financing
arrangements.
National response
The Government of Botswana was quick to establish a national COVID-19 response structure and
put in place a range of prevention and containment measures, prior to registering positive cases
within the country. The Government announced a 28-day period of extreme social distancing as of 3
April and has announced a State of Emergency for 6 months. The Ministry of Health and Wellness is
coordinating the health response, based on the recommended response structure by WHO. As in
other countries, limited supply of medical equipment, PPEs and test kits poses a challenge for the
national response. Furthermore, with limited pre-existing ICU capacity and insufficient numbers of
trained health professionals, should the pandemic curve grow exponentially as witnessed in South
Africa, the national health system risks quickly becoming overwhelmed. Current efforts to prevent and
contain the spread of COVID-19 are therefore crucial.
Through its COVID-19 Pandemic Relief Fund the Government of Botswana is providing funding for
strategic reserves and essential services including provision of financing for emergency medical costs
covering supplies, equipment, tents, beds, accommodation disinfectant, medical-tele consultation,
additional health workforce and related welfare.
Policy options
1. Urgently establish surge capacity to deliver emergency services such as scaled laboratory
testing, epidemiological analysis and surveillance, intensive care beds and ventilator support.
Assess, estimate and continuously review needed hospital capacity for inpatient care,
including human resources and referral pathways, essential supplies such as PPEs, required to
provide quality and timely care to COVID-19 patients with severe or critical presentations, by
district. Review critical care and ICU capacity vis-à-vis district demographic profiles.
2. Mobilize, train and reassign healthcare and social support workers from reserve capacity
where feasible, including securing retired staff to return to work in low-risk environments.
Consider final-year health care students, students undergoing internships, for deployment in
support of COVID-19 responses within competency levels and infection control guidelines.
3. Safeguard health financing: Exploring other financing modalities to alleviate pressure on
health budgets and avoid diversion of resources from provision of essential health services. In
addition, measures to ensure efficiency in health expenditure will be required in view of
constrained resources.
4. Prioritize the collection of accurate, timely, quality and complete age and adequately
disaggregated data on the impact of COVID-19 on different segments of the population and
triangulate with the broader socio-economic impact of the pandemic to guide decision making
and targeted investments.
5. Establish specialist advisory panels with expertise in epidemiology, disease prevention and
control to ensure evidence-based responses informed by the latest developments from the
global health science community.
11 | Page6. Maintain continuity of essential health services by identifying essential medicines, health
workforce, services and equipment required for reproductive, maternal, newborn, child and
adolescent health care, nutrition, safe post-abortion care, HIV testing and prevention services,
GBV prevention and response services, mental health and psycho-social support, and
management of chronic diseases.
2 PROTECTING PEOPLE: Social Protection and Ensuring Basic Services
The second pillar of the UN framework pertains to social protection and access to basic services for all
as central to the COVID-19 response. In a context of compounding vulnerabilities, social protection
has powerful benefits. Learning from the past pandemics, life was mostly disrupted due to disruptions
of social services than the disease itself. As demonstrated during the 2008 financial crisis as well as
the 2014 Ebola outbreak, countries with strong social protection systems and basic services were
better able to weather the social impact. Governments will need to adapt, better target, extend and
scale-up cash transfers, food assistance programmes, social insurance programmes and child benefits
to support families, among others.13 This section provides insight into basic welfare and social services
that are essential to limit the impact of COVID-19 on the poor and most vulnerable populations.
Furthermore, it looks at Botswana’s national response and suggests immediate and longer-term
considerations for a comprehensive response.
Provision of food and other essential goods
There are signs of emerging disruptions on the upstream and downstream links of the food and
agriculture chains in countries that have implemented health measures to slow the spread of the
virus. With food and agriculture systems being highly labour-intensive in most African countries,
shortages of workers due to restrictions on people’s and labour mobility may compromise the
provision of inputs in upstream, farming activities and downstream trading, processing and
transportation activities. This may be the case for all crops but especially for perishable horticulture
products (such as vegetables, fruits, flowers) and meat and dairy products. With dependence on
regional and extra-regional imports for food, in particular for the urban areas, Botswana is particularly
vulnerable to disruptions in international logistics and distribution, in addition to production problems
in other countries. This could result in food shortages and increases in food prices.
A significant number of children and adolescents in marginalised communities depend on the meals
and safety provided by the educational institutions. Restricted movements may hinder people with
disabilities and other marginalised groups from access to some basic needs including food parcels.
Households that rely on firewood for cooking may be at risk of greater food insecurity as they may be
unable to collect firewood due to movement restrictions.
Water, sanitation and hygiene services
Access to clean water is of paramount importance in the current context. Botswana as a landlocked
country that generally has flat topography and relies mostly on underground water faces a challenge
13
Cash transfers: what does the evidence say? A rigorous review of impacts and the role of design and implementation features. Bastagli
et al. ODI. 2016.
12 | Pageto ensure undisrupted supply of quality drinkable water to all its residents. Furthermore, occupants
of farms and ungazetted lands such as illegal squatters and informal settlements may struggle to
secure continuous provision of sufficient and clean water. Unsanitary conditions, particularly for large
households where social distancing is a challenge, places families at greater risk during the pandemic.
Education for children and adolescents
With all learning institutions closed, poorer households will struggle to access learning for their
children or adolescents. With fewer tools to connect to distance learning, whether through a
television, radio or online device, these families are more likely to remain behind in the attainment of
learning outcomes, heightening the risk of perpetuated generational poverty. Distance learning
requires parental support and follow-up which may not be a possibility in poorer or single-headed
households struggling to earn a living. The longer learning institutions are forced to remain close, the
greater the impact will be on children and adolescents learning outcomes.
Social assistance
Job losses, less earnings and/or reduced remittances can lead to lower income at the household
level making it difficult to meet regular expenditures. Many informal workers with little or no access
to social protection stand in immediate danger of falling into poverty. Some households struggle to
pay rent and are at risk of evictions. Refugees and migrants are at increased risk due to income loss,
healthcare insecurity and the difficulties linked to the uncertainty in their legal status. Female-headed
households in Botswana have larger household sizes and most do not own the housing units.14 With
loss of income during the lockdown, some families struggle to pay rent and are at risk of evictions.
Without a comprehensive national social protection system, there is a risk that many families may fall
into poverty as a result of the crisis and not receive the support required to get back on their feet.
Crisis support services
As in other countries across the world, restrictions of movement and extreme social distancing have
also come with an increase of gender-based violence (GBV) in Botswana. In the first week of the
extreme social distancing, Botswana Police had recorded two murders, one threat to kill, 22 rapes (7
being children aged two to 13) and 23 cases of defilement were recorded nationally.
Gender-based violence is a violation of the human rights of the victims involved. The most common
form of violence reported is intimate partner violence (IPV), and women of reproductive age
constitute the majority of victims. A 2015 survey indicates that 33 per cent of sexually active students
had sexual debut before the age of 13 years, with one in five being forced into sex.15 Lockdown and
extreme social distancing measures come with heightened risk of children and adolescents witnessing
or suffering violence, abuse and exploitation. These risks apply also to people who may be victimised
because of their sexual orientation. The country has two GBV centers which may become
overwhelmed in providing services for an increased number of cases.
National Response
The Government has opted for introducing and adapting social protection measures, as well as
preventing disruptions of essential social services. The existing social protection and public work
14
(Central Statistics Botswana, 2002/03)
15
(UNFPA, 2019)
13 | Pageprogrammes (Ipelegeng) will remain operational throughout the immediate crisis period. Emergency
Operation Centres at have been established to facilitate and coordinate the response and provision
of essential supplies to households in need.
In mid-April, the COVID-19 Food Relief Programme was launched to support vulnerable populations.
As of April 27, a total 47,393 households have been assisted with food packages, which included
agricultural products. Over P150 million has been set aside for this intervention. In addition, P1.2
billion budgeted for social services under the current fiscal year will also be used to cater for
temporary relief food baskets. The Government plans to spend P500 million per month over the next
three months.
The Government recognizes that availability of clean running water to all is crucial for the primary
prevention of COVID-19. The Government has made efforts including reconnections where water was
cut due to arrears in officially gazetted areas. This leaves out, however, other residents such as
occupants of farms and ungazetted lands such as “illegal squatters”.
The Government has put in measures to support learning during the lockdown. Local network
providers have joined in the support for continued education, with key websites as determined by the
MOBE and MOHW made available at no cost for the users. A total of 660 public schools have been
provided with free internet to support online learning. Free SMSs to students and access to an e-
learning platform with BGCSE and JC content has been made available.
In mid-April, 149 convicted prisoners were released in order to reduce the risk of COVID-19
infections in prisons. To protect remaining prisoners, public visitors are not allowed at prisons in
Botswana during the period of lockdown. Visitors are restricted at all hospitals and not allowed in
Intensive Care Units.
The Government has encouraged landlords not to evict any tenants for failure to pay rental during
the lockdown. Botswana Bankers Association has also stipulated a 3-month no interest for vulnerable
clients and flexibility to renegotiate repayments. This is an effort for their clients not to lose their
properties due to the impact of COVID-19.
The Government has developed a national action plan for the GBV response and established a
technical response team with representatives from civil society, private sector and development
partners to implement the essential prevention, management and recovery services.
Policy Options
A ‘one size fits all’ approach will not address the special needs of certain vulnerable populations (e.g.
people with disabilities, marginalized communities, women, children, adolescents, young people,
detainees, refugees, asylum seekers, irregular migrants, casual labourers, remote and rural area
dwellers). Consultation with these groups is the only way to ensure that their needs are heard and
addressed. The risk of not targeting prevention and response planning and roll out is that these
groups will be left behind, may be at increased risk of contracting COVID-19 and may experience
extreme deprivation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
14 | PageShort-term (immediate) responses to reduce negative impacts of COVID-19:
➢ Collect and analyse data on vulnerable households affected by COVID-19, and assess the
feasibility of different policy options/responses;
➢ Scale up existing income support and cash transfer programmes to reach the vulnerable
experiencing severe income shocks, particularly those engaged in the informal economy;
➢ Rapidly expand ongoing interventions, including the COVID-19 Food Relief Programme to
reach non-citizens, including refugees, asylum seekers, irregular migrants, etc.;
➢ Immediately support rural livelihoods, explicitly recognizing the specific constraints faced
by rural women and their roles in agri-food systems as key actors in maintaining household
food security, food producers, farm managers, processors, traders, wage workers and
entrepreneurs, ensuring that their needs are adequately addressed.
➢ Keep national borders open for food and agriculture commodity trade so as not to disrupt
regional and interregional trade in food and agriculture products and inputs;
➢ Ensure adequate emergency strategic food reserves and storage facilities, including through
public-private partnerships, where appropriate and feasible, and directly linked to the social
protection programs;
➢ Provide clean water and sanitation for all residents regardless of the status of their
properties or tenure;
➢ Expand crisis support services and family friendly policies to help women, children and
adolescents witnessing or suffering violence, abuse and exploitation;
➢ Secure sustained learning for all children, and adolescents, preferably in schools. Explore
options for staggered return to schools, reduced class sizes and shift systems. In the case of a
prolonged closure, equal access to online learning must be facilitated;
➢ Conduct regular prison monitoring visits (the Ombudsman Office in coordination with Red
Cross Botswana) to ensure the minimum standards of detention and COVID-19 public health
measures are being upheld;
➢ Accurately plan and cost measures to respond to health and social protection needs and
integrate these into emergency or supplementary budgets.
Medium- and long-term responses to enhance preparedness of Botswana’s social protection
for future emergencies and crises:
➢ Build ‘adaptive’ and ‘shock-responsive’ social protection system to manage the devastating
effects of future crises. This means improving delivery systems so that social protection
programmes can reach the vulnerable more quickly, efficiently, and transparently, with the
ability to scale up in times of crisis.16 The Government should improve coordination across
programmes and develop objective targeting and service delivery mechanisms.
➢ Put in place a real-time monitoring mechanism to ensure the inclusion of vulnerable people
in planning and response. The lack of comprehensive and reliable data on vulnerable
individuals and households is one of the main obstacles to quickly and adequately facilitate
16
Michal Rutkowski (2020) How social protection can help countries cope with COVID-19, published on Voices
at https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/.
15 | Pagetheir access to programmes and essential services. Therefore, developing population and
social registers, as well as programme-based management information systems are
necessary. A Single Social Registry – piloted with assistance of the World Bank – needs to be
rolled out to the whole country.
➢ Implement a nationally defined social protection floor that guarantees access to health care
and a basic level of income security. COVID-19 highlights the importance of creating universal
entitlements to health care and income support.17 Delivering rapid financial support to those
that are most in need during crisis boosts domestic consumption, expands access to social
services and hence minimizes the potential for economic contraction..
3 ECONOMIC RECOVERY: Protecting Jobs, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, and
the Most Vulnerable Productive Sectors
The third pillar of the UN framework pertains to economic recovery. The following section attempts
to outline the expected implications for MSMEs as significant employers and contributors to the
economy. Furthermore it looks at the significant impact COVID-19 is having on the tourism and
hospitality industry, a key contributor to Botswana’s GDP,18 but also a significant contributor to
sustainable natural resource management and job creation across the vast geographic area of the
country. The largest contributor to the economy and key exporter is the mineral sector and recent
projections show an expected loss of revenue from BWP 20 billion to BWP 6.7 billion in 2020/2021. 19
Whilst this analysis acknowledges the considerable impact of a declining mineral sector to the
economy, a detailed analysis is yet to follow.
Protecting Jobs and Micro, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MSMEs)
Micro, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises are a fundamental part of a dynamic and healthy
economy. They not only add to the growth of the private sector but contribute significantly to job
creation both for skilled and unskilled workers in all sectors.20 MSMEs are a critical driver of poverty
reduction and may also help narrow inequalities provided they create sufficient jobs. They have also
shown to be critical in diversifying and transforming the economy, especially in a supportive regulatory
and policy environment.21 These important contributions of MSMEs to the economy have been
weakened since the advent of the COVID-19 with income and job losses due to the lockdown. It has
17
Ibid.
18
In 2018, travel and tourism contribution share to GDP was 13.4% growing at an average annual rate of 4.42% when it
was estimated at 6.8% in 1999. https://knoema.com/atlas/Botswana/topics/Tourism/Travel-and-Tourism-Total-
Contribution-to-GDP/Contribution-of-travel-and-tourism-to-GDP-percent-of-GDP
19
Government of Botswana, Economic Briefing by Honorable Minister of Finance and Economic Development, 24 April
2020.
20
Unfortunately there is no data available on the overall contribution of SMEs to employment in Botswana.
21
Goitseone Khanie (2018). Financing SMEs in Botswana: Factors Influencing Access to Credit. BIDPA Working
Paper 50. Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis.
16 | Pagealso weakened the longer-term contribution of MSMEs to attaining the SDGs under the 2030 Agenda
for Sustainable Development.22
SMEs constitute approximately 90% of all businesses in Botswana.23 Most of these SMEs are registered
and form part of the formal sector, subjected to taxation, and providing pension or gratuity, paid
leave, maternity leave, allowances, and medical services. Employment is therefore protected under
schemes like the Minimum Wages Act and Factories Act.24 The operations of many of these businesses
have been completely halted due to the lockdown, thus leading to income losses and most likely their
inability to continue to pay wages of workers, loans owed to financial institutions, taxes to
government, and payment of rental obligations to landlords.
Micro-enterprises on the other hand are mostly found in the informal sector, with no legal identities,
formal accounts, or employee benefits and securities.25 Workers in the informal sector differ widely
from those in the formal sector in terms of education and income levels, age, sex, levels of protection.
They are therefore the most at risk during this crisis, hence would need direct attention from policy
makers to prevent them from falling into poverty and being left further behind.
Movement restrictions and extreme social distancing impact businesses differently. Many of the
MSMEs in Botswana are dependent on face-to-face customer interaction and worker collaboration,
as they are found mostly found in the retail trade, services such catering, transport, personal care, car
repairs, printing services and finance, construction and real estate, food processing, other
manufacturing and crafts, mainly in tailoring and knitting, woodwork and metal work.26
Most of the businesses in the informal sector are financed from household savings or sale of
assets.27 They have limited liquidity and access to credit. According to Statistics Botswana, the
informal sector businesses were found to be in areas such as wholesale and retail (47.4 percent),
followed by manufacturing (14.8 percent) and real estate (11 percent). Informal sector businesses
were concentrated in urban villages (48.8 percent), followed by cities and towns (26.7 percent) and
rural areas (24.6 percent). Due to the State of Emergency and restrictions on movement, many are
likely to lose their livelihoods. While shocks to economic activity will impact most workers, the
informal workers are at greater risk of falling into poverty. This is particularly the case if restrictions
on movement and business operations continue over a longer period of time as business investments
and buffers are depleted.
The COVID-19 has led to stock markets crashing, decline in foreign direct investment, travel and
supply chain disruptions, introduction of state of emergencies and lockdowns, decline in national
and business revenues. With the announcement of the extreme social distancing policy and
introduction of lockdown to prevent further spread of the COVID-19 in the population, MSMEs have
22
The magnitude and extent of these losses and impact would need to be further interrogated post-COVID-19
to provide more robust evidence for decisive policy and programmatic responses by government and
development partners.
23
Statistics Botswana, 2016.
24
Statistics Botswana (2018). Multi-Topic Household Survey 2015/16.
25
Central Statistics Office (2007). Informal Sector Survey Report 2007. Ministry of Finance and Development
Planning, Gaborone, Botswana.
26
World Bank (2011). Promoting Entrepreneurship in Botswana: Constraints to Micro Business Development,
Report No. 59916-BW. Financial and Private Sector Development Africa Region and the Botswana Institute of
Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA).
27
Statistics Botswana (2018). Multi-Topic Household Survey 2015/16.
17 | Pagesuffered dire consequences in terms of income and job losses and their continued ability to support
poverty reduction, equality and job creation efforts. Few MSMEs had the required ICT infrastructure
and know-how to move their businesses online, and only restricted economic sectors such as
pharmaceuticals and food retail have been allowed to continue operations. Research indicates that
the majority of MSMEs which are forced to close temporarily are unlikely to reopen in the absence of
supportive measures. For instance, in India it has been estimated that nearly 20 million, or one-fourth
of the MSMEs, will close permanently if the lockdown is extended beyond 21 days. 28 MSMEs are likely
to experience a similar situation in Botswana unless there is tailored economic stimulus support for
their recovery after the crisis. Job cuts and/or losses in an economy that is already faced with a 17.6
percent unemployment rate, a 25.1 percent youth unemployment rate, a headcount poverty ratio of
16.3 percent and an income Gini-coefficient of 0.53,29 can have severe long-term social consequences
such as increased multidimensional and income poverty, inequality and unemployment.
MOST VULNERABLE PRODUCTIVE SECTORS: Tourism and Hospitality
As of 6 April 2020, 96 percent of all world destinations had restricted travel. This meant that 209
destinations worldwide had adopted COVID-19 travel restrictions, including Botswana. The latest
research from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) estimates that up to 75 million jobs are
at immediate risk. The research reveals a potential Travel & Tourism GDP loss of up to $2.1 trillion in
2020. For Botswana, tourism and hospitality is the third largest contributor to the national economy,
accounting for almost 12 percent of GDP. The sector is a key contributor to job creation, skills transfer
and the development of new competencies.
In Botswana, the COVID-19 outbreak will likely overlap with tourism and hospitality peak season. The
economic implications will likely be catastrophic on the sector’s contribution to economic growth
particularly the lives and livelihoods of those dependent on the sector. Although it is too early to fully
assess the impact of the pandemic in Botswana, it is clear that travel restrictions and declining demand
for exports will have a significant impact on the economy and livelihoods of those directly involved.
According to the preliminary survey conducted by the Hospitality and Tourism Association of
Botswana (HATAB), the sector has suffered substantial losses. Already by end-March, it was reported
that hotels were operating at less than 10 percent of their capacity. Extensive loss of business will
likely throw many firms in the tourism and hospitality, predominantly the SMEs, into insolvency. The
industry’s total employment stood at 19,165 in 2018 according to Statistics Botswana. This is however
understated as it covered hotels and restaurants only. As a consequence, significant numbers of jobs
will be lost, potentially pushing many households into poverty.
By some estimates COVID-19 could cost the tourism and hospitality industry more than 80 percent
of its output.30 Since the outbreak of the virus, major events across the world have had to cancel.
Botswana was set to host a series of international conferences and events in the first half of 2020, all
of which have had to be postponed. Botswana Tourism Organization (BTO) has revealed that major
upcoming tourism events such as the Toyota Desert Race and Khawa Dune Challenge run the risk of
being cancelled.
28
ETNOWNEWS.COM: Covid-19 Impact: Nearly 20 million MSMEs may shut shop if lockdown persists.
https://www.timesnownews.com/business-economy/industry/article/covid-19-impact-nearly-20-million-
msmes-may-shut-shop-if-lockdown-persists/571312
29
Statistics Botswana (2018). Multi-Topic Household Survey 2015/16.
30
HATAB 27 March 2020: https://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?aid=85069&dir=2020/march/27
18 | PageThe estimated number of accommodation facilities that remaining open to guests has dwindled
from 1500 to just 25. This indicates that only 1.67 percent tourist accommodation facilities are
operational. Of the 25 accommodation facilities still operational, almost all have remained open to
facilitate the Government with quarantine facilities for persons who had arrived in-country as
restrictions were being put in place. With most people having completed their 14-day quarantine and
released, the number of facilities required will also drop. The remaining licensed tourist operations
are virtually closed.
National Response
Botswana has outlined an economic response package estimated at BWP 4 billion (approximately 2
percent of GDP).31 The economic relief package has been designed with the objective of supporting
the economy through the covid-19 pandemic, with focus on (i) support to workers; (ii) stabilization of
businesses; (iii) ensuring availability of strategic reserves; and, in the medium-term, (iv) promotion of
opportunities for economic diversification. To support workers, government will provide a wage
subsidy (approximately BWP 1 billion) for citizen employees of all businesses mostly affected by
COVID-19, for a period of three month, to enable them to retain employees. Measures to stabilize
business and provide cash-flow relief, include Government guarantees on loans by commercial banks
to businesses mostly affected by covid-19 (BWP 1 billion), facilitated access to credit and tax
concessions (estimated at BWP 1.2 billion), including a deferral of 6 months for tax payments due
between March and September 2020. To further assist with cash flow, all outstanding arrears for
invoices will be paid within two weeks and VAT refunds to businesses will be expedited (BWP 500
million). A further BWP 475 million has been set aside to ensure the continued availability of strategic
reserves such as medical supply/equipment and food (maize, sorghum, pulses, etc.) to Botswana as
noted in the previous section. In order to finance the aforementioned measures, the government has
set up a COVID-19 Relief Fund and invested seed capital of BWP 2 billion in the fund to fight against
the spread of the pandemic. The government has invited contributions from all sectors.
Added relief has also been provided through the financial sector, with both the Bank of Botswana
(BoB) and commercial banks introducing measures to improve liquidity. On monetary policy, the BoB
has reduced the reserve requirement from 15 percent to 12.5 percent and to remove the 6 percent
penalty for commercial banks to access credit from BoB Credit Facility, with the objective of lowering
the cost of access to credit. The BoB’s reference rate was also reduced by 50 basis points to 4.25
percent to improve liquidity, with commercial banks required to make necessary interest rate
adjustments with immediate effect, whilst the primary reserve requirement, which currently stands
at 5 percent, will be revised to 2.5 percent effective 13 May in order to allow commercial banks to
support economic activity. The monetary authority has also announced a new annual downward rate
of crawl will be introduced to shield the Pula exchange rate and help support Botswana’s international
competitiveness – key for the countries’ economic and export diversification agenda. Commercial
banks will also offer a payment holiday for three months, with the option to extend to six months, to
businesses in the affected sectors.
The Botswana Tourism Organisation (BTO) has called for bold and decisive measures to limit the
extent of the damage to the industry and to lay the foundation for a speedy and effective post-COVID-
19 recovery. Some of the strategies proposed include increased targeting of local and regional
31
http://econsult.co.bw/tempex/file/Econsult%20Economic%20Review%20-%202020%201st%20Quarter.pdf
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