South Africa - 204 Days of Lockdown - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail 16 October 2020 - Trade Intelligence

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South Africa - 204 Days of Lockdown - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail 16 October 2020 - Trade Intelligence
COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail

South Africa – 204 Days of
Lockdown

16 October 2020
South Africa - 204 Days of Lockdown - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail 16 October 2020 - Trade Intelligence
Content

• COVID–19 Update

• Black Friday Retail Preparations

• A Very COVID-19 Christmas: What to Expect this Year

• Latest Category Performance

• Liquor Growths and Comparison

• Tobacco Snapshot

• Pet Update

• Private Label During Lockdown

• IRI COVID-19 Global Update

                                                        © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   2
South Africa - 204 Days of Lockdown - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail 16 October 2020 - Trade Intelligence
Level 1 lockdown continues
•   SA COVID-19 cases are slowly starting to increase under Level 1 lockdown. Second waves and lockdowns across many
    other countries are prompting concerns that SA may follow suit
•   Retailers and manufacturers looking to bolster sales are preparing to embrace the Black Friday and Christmas shopping
    seasons. Changes include social distancing in store, extended promotions and an even bigger focus on e-commerce
•   Grocery, excl. Liquor & Tobacco, value growth is at 6.8% for the total lockdown period. September month-end week saw
    lower sales than LY, but higher October mid-month sales are driving the latest 4wk growth of 9.3%
     – Staples have returned to strong performance with Wheat Flour, Dry Pasta, Sugar&Sweeteners, Rice and Soup&Stock
       all showing latest week growth levels amongst the highest since lockdown began. This follows a muted month-end.
       Soaps&Sanitiser, Household Cleaning and Wipes all follow a similar trend
     – Liquor’s initial boost after the ban was lifted was followed by an extended period of decline. October is seeing a pick-
       up driven particularly by Wine and Spirits. Both LSM groups are moving their spend from Beer & Fabs to Wine
     – Tobacco’s initial sales boost, post the ban lift, was also followed by extended declines, however this category has not
       seen the same recent turn around visible in Liquor
     – Pet is showing growth of 4.8% during lockdown, possibly suggesting consumers took the opportunity to adopt new
       pets, as well as spending more time with existing animals. Dog and Other Pet growth is strong in both LSM groups,
       however Cat growth is predominantly in the higher LSMs
     – Private Label’s lockdown share is in line with its share prior to COVID-19 levels. Winners and losers are seen across
       categories and retailers, showing that both National and Private Label brands are relevant and important in the SA
       context
•   IRI’s Marketing Mix methodology has been adjusted to identify and isolate the COVID-19 impact on sales, resulting in the
    most accurate forecast and delivering growth for clients
South Africa - 204 Days of Lockdown - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail 16 October 2020 - Trade Intelligence
COVID-19 UPDATE

                  © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   4
South Africa - 204 Days of Lockdown - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail 16 October 2020 - Trade Intelligence
SA no longer in the global top 10 Covid-19 countries case ranking
#                                         Cases                                                            Deaths
1        USA                                                            8 093 600     1                                                                             220 900

2        India                                                   7 241 517            2                                         110 645

3       Brazil                                    5 114 823                           3                                                       151 063

4      Russia          1 340 409                                                      4         23 205

5       Spain       925 341                                                           5            33 204

6    Colombia       924 098                                                           6          28 141
                                                                                                                          1 091 693 globally
7    Argentina      917 035                                                           7         24 572                           +16% vs. last month

8        Peru      853 974                                                            8            33 409

                                            38 417 027 globally
9      Mexico      853 974                                                            9                               84 420
                                           +29% vs. last month
10     France      825 340                                                            10           32 941

                                                                                           © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.    5
                 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries 13th Oct 2020
South Africa - 204 Days of Lockdown - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail 16 October 2020 - Trade Intelligence
Gauteng and Free State lead in terms of active case count

      https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/10/13/update-on-covid-19-13th-october-2020/   © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   6
      https://www.covid19sa.org/provincial-breakdown
South Africa - 204 Days of Lockdown - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail 16 October 2020 - Trade Intelligence
SA COVID-19 Timeline
 WHO declares global health emergency         JAN

                      Global cases: 500k      MAR   First South African tests positive for Coronavirus, Ramaphosa declares a National State of Disaster
                   Global cases: 1 million
                                                    Start of SA lockdown. Liquor and tobacco banned, First death in SA

                                              APR   SA lockdown extended

                   Global cases: 5 million    MAY   SA lockdown level 4 begins, All online retail sales open (excl Liquor &
                                                    Tobacco)                                                                                         SA spent 35

    Global cases: 10 million; deaths: 500k    JUN   SA lockdown level 3 begins; alcohol sale unbanned, SA records 50k                                  days           in
                                                    cases
                                                                                                                                                          level 5
                  Global cases: 15 million    JUL   SA records 200k cases, SA alcohol ban announced with immediate effect                               lockdown
                                                    SA records 400k cases
                                                                                                                                                                            31 days
                                                                                                                                                  SA spent 34                in level 4
                  Global cases: 20 million    AUG   SA records 500k cases, Lockdown level 2 begins
                                                                                                                                                    days         in
                                                    Liquor and tobacco bans lifted, SA records 600k cases
                                                                                                                                                       level 2

Global cases: 30 million; deaths: 1 million   SEP   Lockdown level 1 begins                                                                                                78 days     in
                                                                                                                                                        25
                                                                                                                                                                             level 3
                                              OCT   SA’s international borders open                                                                days         in
                                                                                                                                                      level 1

                                                                                                        © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.         7
South Africa - 204 Days of Lockdown - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail 16 October 2020 - Trade Intelligence
The second wave of coronavirus infections seen in European countries is driving
concerns that SA might be vulnerable as restrictions ease in Level 1

     https://www.enca.com/news/health-minister-warn-sa-second-wave/
     https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/15/is-europe-having-a-covid-19-second-wave-country-by-country-breakdown   © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   8
South Africa - 204 Days of Lockdown - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail 16 October 2020 - Trade Intelligence
Vaccine trials, antibody tests and regulations for companies opening their doors
show a new normal in South Africa

      https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/sa-scientists-launch-trial-to-test-if-childhood-vaccine-can-protect-frontline-
      healthcare-workers-20201014
      https://www.businessinsider.co.za/trending/you-can-now-get-a-covid-antibody-test-at-clicks-with-results-in-15-minutes-2020-10
                                                                                                                                      © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   9
      https://www.businessinsider.co.za/business/covid-19-rules-regulations-for-employers-companies-2020-10
South Africa - 204 Days of Lockdown - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail 16 October 2020 - Trade Intelligence
Retailers prepare for Black Friday 2020 while maintain the ‘new normal’ social
distancing and hygiene regulations required by COVID-19

                                                                                         STEPS RETAILERS ARE TAKING TO PREPARE FOR BF 2020:
                                                                                         Online will be an even bigger focus than in the past
                                                                                         Extending ‘Black Friday’ deals throughout November to avoid over-
                                                                                         crowding on the day
                                                                                         Encouraging shoppers to use online resources beforehand resulting
                                                                                         in a faster shopping experience
                                                                                         Making deals available online or online only instead of in-store only
                                                                                         Upgrading e-commerce systems and logistics ahead of time to
                                                                                         ensure they can cope with demand
                                                                                         Maintaining all social distancing and hygiene standards as per
                                                                                         current COVID-19 regulations
                                                                                         In the US Walmart and Target will be closing stores on Thursday the
                                                                                         26th and focussing on contactless options on Friday

     https://mybroadband.co.za/news/black-friday/370891-black-friday-2020-south-african-stores-to-extend-specials.html
     https://businesstech.co.za/news/business/438429/game-and-makros-black-friday-2020-plans/                            © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   10
     https://www.bizcommunity.com/Article/196/394/209001.html#more
A very COVID-19 Christmas: What to expect this festive season
‘Come peak season, if items aren’t available in the way and timeframe that consumers want, they will
switch faster than ever before. Coronavirus has tested brand loyalty to the limits.’ (1)

Retailers face a tough environment going into the festive season:

       Economic recession and high unemployment                                           Retailers need to ensure they maximise their
       figures leave consumers strapped for cash                                          share of wallet this Christmas season

                                    A solid online presence will be key to success

• Customers have become used to shopping online in the past few months; Click & Collect in particular has
  proven popular
• With social distancing measures still in place, online shopping is safer and easier for many
• Fast and efficient ordering and fulfilment is key!

          (1)   https://www.essentialretail.comments/will-covid-steal-christmas/
          (2)   https://www.vendhq.com/blog/covid-christmas-retailers-prepare-holidays/
                                                                                                © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   11
A very COVID-19 Christmas: What to expect this festive season

         Consumers are planning                                                          Cash-strapped consumers will increasingly research
         ahead, and will start their                                                     and review purchases online
         Christmas shopping early                                                        (‘Q&As on product pages attract a 120% revenue per visitor lift on best-in-class
                                                                                         sites and reviews drive a 159% lift in revenue per visitor’ (1))

         Consumers will be                                                               Customers will expect festive cheer / decoration on
         looking for discounts                                                           online platforms

               Brick & Mortar stores need to ensure customers feel safe and can ensure they spend
               more time in store through the following strategies:

   Allow customers to find                                  Catalogues handed out to customers                                           Longer trading hours
    key items quickly and                                              waiting to enter                                                   Clear signage for
   easily (front of store or                                Offer the option of ‘online’ purchases                                         navigation and
        pop-up store)                                        in the queue (e.g. staff with tablets)                                         reassurance

         (1)   http://www.netimperative.com/2020/07/22/2020-christmas-predictions-5-retail-trends-for-the-new-
               shopping-landscape/
         (2)   https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/supermarkets/a-very-covid-christmas-how-are-retailers-preparing-for-
               the-festive-season/645263.article                                                                     © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   12
IRI’s Marketing Mix methodology has been adjusted for clients to identify and isolate
the COVID-19 impact on sales, as well as the forecasting approach
    A clear understanding of the COVID-19 impact on                                    Accurate forecasting results accounting for the
1   your brand and category
                                                                                   2   COVID-19 impact and/or changes in your trade
                                                                                       marketing activities
      IRI estimates what sales would have been if COVID-19 didn’t happen           IRI’s adjusted forecasting methodology allows clients to exclude or
                                                                                                       include the COVID-19 impact
                                 A: Category Sales Trend

                                                                                          Sales YA                                                            Prediction
                                                                                                                          Price Increase
                                                                                                         Promo optimisation             COVID Sales Drop

                                                     Sales incl. COVID-19
                                                                                                                                                                 Simulated
                                                                                                                                                                   Sales
                                                                                                                                     COVID-
                                                                                            Sales Year
                                                                                               Ago                                     19
                                                                                                                                     impact
                     Pre-model                             COVID-19 Impact

                                             Estimated sales if not for COVID-19

     Result: 15% of sales growth was from COVID-19 Impact

                                                                                                  © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.     13
LATEST CATEGORY
PERFORMANCE

                  © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   14
While month-end sales were lower vs. YA, a marked spike in sales is evident in the
latest week
                                    Total Groceries (excl. Liquor)                         Grocery (excl. Liquor) Growth:
                                     Weekly Actual Value sales                                              Total Period: 6.8%
                                 Last Yr    This Yr    Linear (This Yr)                                   Latest 4 week: 9.3%

 Lockdown Level 5    Level 4                     Level 3                                               Level 2                                 Level 1

                                                                          © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   15
After a muted month-end, Staples perform well in the latest week.
      Sassa payouts in the w/c 5th October, as well as promotions by some retailers drive growth
                                           March   April   May   June   July   August   September   Sep 13th   Sep 20th   Sep 27th      Oct 4th      Oct 11th
                      Baking Ingredients
                             Ice Cream
                           Wheat Flour
                                Yoghurt                                                                                                                                      % Value growth
                                Biscuits
                                                                                                                                                                                 vs. YA
                      Frozen Veg/Potato
                    Spices & Seasoning                                                                                                                                             Scale:
                   Condiments & Sauces                                                                                                                                                        >100
                                Cheese
                                                                                                                                                                                              70 to 100
Edible Groceries

                              Dry Pasta
                                Snacks                                                                                                                                                        50 to 70

                    Sugars & Sweetners                                                                                                                                                        30 to 50
                               Spreads                                                                                                                                                        11 to 30
                                Cereals
                                                                                                                                                                                              0 to 10
                                     Oil
                          Canned Food                                                                                                                                                         -10 to 0
                          Confectionery                                                                                                                                                       -30 to -10
                          Soup & Stock
                                                                                                                                                                                              -30 to -50
                            Fresh Meat
                                                                                                                                                                                              < -50
                                  Bread
                          Frozen Meats
                                   Rice
                                  Maize

                                                                                                                    © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.
                                                                                                                                                                      © 2020                     16 Inc. (IRI).
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Strong performance in Personal Care and Household Essentials in the latest week

                                       March      April    May    June    July   August   September    Sep 13th   Sep 20th   Sep 27th       Oct 4th       Oct 11th
               Soaps & Sanitiser                                                                                                                                              % Value growth vs.
              Household Cleaning                                                                                                                                                     YA
Non-Edibles

                          Wipes
                                                                                                                                                                                          Scale:
                  Personal Care
                     Toilet Paper                                                                                                                                                                >100
                       Oral Care                                                                                                                                                                 70 to 100
                        Vitamins                                                                                                                                                                 50 to 70
                       Medicinal
                                                                                                                                                                                                 30 to 50
                               Pet
                                                                                                                                                                                                 11 to 30

                                                                                                                                                                                                 0 to 10

                                                                                                                                                                                                 -10 to 0

                                                                                                                                                                                                 -30 to -10

                                                                                                                                                                                                 -30 to -50
                                     March     April      May    June    July    August   September   Sep 13th    Sep 20th   Sep 27th       Oct 4th        Oct 11th
Beverages

                                                                                                                                                                                                 < -50
                        Milk
               Coffee & Tea
                       Juice
              CSDs & Water

                                                                                                                        © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.       17
Top and Bottom Growth Categories across Lockdown and by Month (excl. Liquor & Tobacco)
  Indulgent / Baking categories, Soaps & Sanitiser and Pantry Staples were consistently among the top-
  performing categories
                       Total Period             March                April                    May                   June                   July                         August                     September
                    Baking Ingredients          Wipes         Baking Ingredients       Baking Ingredients           Wine                Vitamins                  Baking Ingredients                  Biscuits
                     Soaps & Sanitiser      Wheat Flour           Ice Cream            Soaps & Sanitiser           Spirits          Soaps & Sanitiser             Soaps & Sanitiser             Frozen Veg/Potato
                        Ice Cream               Juice            Wheat Flour               Ice Cream         Soaps & Sanitiser        Wheat Flour                     Dry Pasta                       Cheese
Top 10 Growth
  Categories

                       Wheat Flour        Soaps & Sanitiser   Sugars & Sweetners          Wheat Flour        Baking Ingredients    Baking Ingredients                Wheat Flour                     Dry Pasta
                         Vitamins           Coffee & Tea       Soaps & Sanitiser      Sugars & Sweetners         Dry Pasta              Dry Pasta                      Spreads                  Sugars & Sweetners
                         Spreads            Toilet Paper      Spices & Seasoning            Yoghurt             Wheat Flour             Medicinal                      Vitamins                       Spreads
                          Biscuits       Sugars & Sweetners        Spreads            Spices & Seasoning          Yoghurt                Yoghurt                       Biscuits                         Oil
                   Sugars & Sweetners          Spreads              Yoghurt          Condiments & Sauces          Cheese           Spices & Seasoning                  Cheese                           Rice
                         Dry Pasta          Canned Food               Oil                  Dry Pasta        Sugars & Sweetners           Spreads                 Frozen Veg/Potato               Soaps & Sanitiser
                       Soup & Stock            Biscuits             Cereals                 Spreads               Vitamins                 Rice                  Sugars & Sweetners                Toilet Paper

                                                     Categories outlined in red are declining, while the others are showing single digit growth.

                      Total Period             March                 April                   May                    June                   July                        August                      September
                          Juice             CSDs & Water             Juice              CSDs & Water                Juice                 Juice                    CSDs & Water                        Juice
Bottom 10 Growth

                     CSDs & Water          Confectionery        CSDs & Water            Frozen Meats           CSDs & Water           CSDs & Water                      Juice                     CSDs & Water
   Categories

                     Confectionery          Canned Food         Confectionery            Toilet Paper              Maize                  Maize                    Confectionery                      Maize
                          Bread                Bread            Personal Care             Medicinal             Fresh Meat            Canned Food                       Bread                     Personal Care
                     Personal Care              Rice             Toilet Paper               Bread               Toilet Paper          Confectionery                Personal Care                    Medicinal
                      Canned Food        Frozen Veg/Potato            Pet                   Wipes                    Pet               Fresh Meat                   Canned Food                     Ice Cream
                           Rice          Household Cleaning       Oral Care              Fresh Meat            Confectionery               Pet                           Rice                         Snacks
                           Pet                                Household Cleaning             Rice                  Wipes              Personal Care                      Pet                      Confectionery
                       Fresh Meat                                   Wipes                   Maize              Personal Care              Bread                      Fresh Meat                 Household Cleaning
                   Household Cleaning                                 Rice                    Pet                   Rice                 Wipes                   Household Cleaning                   Wipes

                                                                                                                                   © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   18
After muted sales for most of September, Liquor sales pick up in October, with Wine
 and Spirits driving the recovery

                 March   April    May     June   July    August     September           Sep 13th    Sep 20th      Sep 27th         Oct 4th         Oct 11th           % Value growth vs.
Tobacco                                                                  Tobacco
                                                                                                                                                                             YA
  Wine                                                                         Wine                                                                                               Scale:
   Beer                                                                        Beer                                                                                                      >100
  FABs                                                                        FABs                                                                                                       70 to 100
 Spirits                                                                      Spirits                                                                                                    50 to 70

                                                                                                                                                                                         30 to 50

                                                                                                                                                                                         11 to 30

                                                                                                                                                                                         0 to 10

                                                                                                                                                                                         -10 to 0
                         April   May    June     July   August    September              Sep 13th    Sep 20th      Sep 27th       Oct 4th        Oct 11th                                -30 to -10
       Rum                                                                                                                                                                               -30 to -50
           Gin                                                                                                                                                                           < -50
Other Spirits
     Whisky
     Brandy
      Vodka

                                                                                                                © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.       19
After high sales (stock-piling) in August, muted sales are evident for most of
 September. However, October is showing an uplift in sales

                                                           Category Performance
                                                           Beer   Wine    Spirits   FABs

Total 8 Wk Period   2020-08-23   2020-08-30   2020-09-06           2020-09-13              2020-09-20             2020-09-27                    2020-10-04                   2020-10-11

                                                                                                        © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.     20
While Wine and Spirits are showing positive growth over the last 8 weeks, total
                    Liquor growth is down -1% vs. LY
Liquor Categories
Spirits

                                                                            © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   21
Liquor value is declining amongst both LSM groups since sales reopened 8 weeks ago.
Both LSM groups have increased spend on Wine and decreased spend on Beer & Fabs

                                                                               8 wks to
   Total Liquor Spend
                                               LSM 1 - 6                      11/10/2020                             LSM 7 - 10
     Value Share to

                                       12%                   15%                Wine
                                                                                                          21%                                      25%
                                       19%                   18%
                                                                                Fabs                      15%                                      13%

                                       38%
                                                             42%                                          38%
                                                                                Spirits                                                            43%

                                       32%                   25%                                          26%
                                                                                Beer                                                               19%

                                  Last Year                This Year                                 Last Year                                This Year
   Value Growth
       % YA

                        Total Liquor    Beer     Spirits    Fabs       Wine                Total Liquor      Beer             Spirits            Fabs              Wine

                                                                                                    © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   22
Tobacco sales see value declines across several weeks vs. last year, after the initial
stock-up shop when sales opened 8 weeks ago

                                                                                                                       8 wks since sales
                                               Tobacco Value Growth % YA
                                                                                                                          reopening

                                                 LSM 1-6         LSM 7 - 10                                             LSM 1-6: +13%
                                                                                                                          LSM 1-6: +6%

        23/08/2020   30/08/2020   06/09/2020     13/09/2020   20/09/2020   27/09/2020       04/10/2020               11/10/2020

                                                                                    © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   23
During lockdown, the Pet category saw 4.8% growth vs. YA during, driven primarily
 by Accessories (9.8%) and Food (4.5%)
 We saw customers stockpiling Food in March, as well as an increase in sales of Accessories during lockdown months (treats, leashes and toys). This
 corresponds to people spending more time at home with their pets, while many also took the opportunity to adopt new pets

                                                                                          Pet Food             Pet Accessories

                                                                Total Period       March            April           May             June      July          August        September
                                                Pet Treats
                                                 Cat Food
   Pet Food                                Dry Dog Food
                                          Wet Dog Food
                                                Bird Food
                                                Fish Food
                                              Rabbit Food
                                              Pet Bedding
                                      Collars & Leashes
Pet Accessories                                 Pet Bowls
                              Pet Medicinal / Accessories
                                                 Pet Toys

                  (1)   https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-pet-services-market-2020-2025---increase-in-number-of-pet-owners-
                        and-increased-spending-on-pets-amid-covid-19-301114856.html                                                         © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   24
                  (2)   https://www.supermarketnews.com/winning-pet-care/pet-adoptions-rise-boosting-product-sales
Pet has seen strong growth in both LSM groups, especially Dog, and the much
smaller Other Pet categories
                       Value Growth % YA – Full Lockdown period

                                 LSM 1 - 6   LSM 7 - 10

         Total Pet        Cat                Dog           Other Pets                                      Pet Acc.

                                                          © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   25
The COVID-19 lockdown has provided a retail landscape in which both National
Brands and Private Label brands are relevant and important
Food categories see higher baseline sales across Private Label and National Brands as the
lockdown drives dining at home.

• Private Labels are reliant on many of the same factors as National Brands:
   – Price sensitivity has driven share losses in high inflation categories (see
     Example A)
   – Investment into latest food trends is driving growth, particularly in categories
     that are benefitting from the ‘eat at home’ trend (E.g. B)
   – Some categories saw National Brands run out of stock faster in early
     lockdown, driving higher share for available Private Labels (E.g. C)
   – Retailers have reduced instore shelf space (bulk bins/gondola ends) to allow
     space for social distancing, impacting both National and Private Label Brands
   – Panic buying and stock outs lead to trial across a variety of categories – both
     National and Private Label brands need to retain these shoppers

                                                                             © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   26
Private Label has retained overall share into lockdown with gains in Dairy,
Beverages and Snacks brought down by losses in Protein and Toiletries
                                                      Private Label Value % of Macro Category

                    Mat to Aug2019            PreCovid Sep-Feb2020           Panic Buying Mar2020               Lockdown Apr-Aug2020

45

40                                                         39
                                                 36             36
                                                      34
35

30
                                                                     27
                                                                          26 26 25
25

20   19 18 19 18
                          15 15 15 15
15                                                                                                                                   13 14                        12
                                                                                                           11           12 12
                                                                                                    10                                                     10           10    9
10                                                                                         9    9

5

0
        Total                 Grocery                 Dairy               Protein              Beverages                       Snacks                           Toiletries

        Sample of South African retailers & wholesalers
        24 of the top CPG categories                                                                 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.       27
Private Label’s category specific performance is dependant on multiple factors, with
no single reason for shifts
• Private Label top and bottom performing categories during lockdown:

                   Top Categories where PL gained %      Bottom Categories where PL lost %
                                   Biscuits & Rusks             Sugar & Sweeteners
                                Household Cleaners                 Hand & Body
                              Canned Meat & Meals               Frozen Convenience
                              Fermented Beverages                     Bakery
                                          Dessert               Spices & Seasonings
                                       Cooking Oil                   Pet Food
                                          Cereals                 Processed Meat
                                        UHT Juice                    UHT Milk
                                        Edible Fat            Vitamins & Supplements

       Sample of South African retailers & wholesalers
       24 of the top CPG categories                                    © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   28
Example A: Private Label took price above National Brands in Sugar &
Sweeteners during lockdown and has lost significant share as a result
 40           PL % of Category          Total Category Ave. Price (Rand/Kg)   PL Ave. Price (Rand/Kg)                                                  20,0

 35                                                                                                                                                    19,0

                                                                                                    R18,32
 30                                                                                                                                                    18,0

                                                                                                    R17,49
 25                                                                                                                                                    17,0

                              R16,26
 20                                                                                                                                                    16,0

                              R15,59
 15                                                                                                                                                    15,0

 10                                                                                                                                                    14,0

 5                                                                                                                                                     13,0

 0                                                                                                                                                     12,0
                  Pre Covid Sep-Feb20                                          Post Covid Apr-Aug20

                                                                              © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   29
Example B: Recent strategic Private Label launches in
     Convenience Sauces capitalized on the ‘eat at home’ trend

                       PL Value % of Convenience Sauces            SA lockdown
6%
                                                                   begins
                                                          Panic
                                                          buying
5%                                                        month

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

                                                                    © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   30
Example C: Private Label gained share of Fresh Cream as National Brands
struggled to keep up with stock demands
                      7000                                                                                                                                                         30,0
                                                                       PL % of Fresh Cream         National Brand OoS

                      6000
                                                                                                                                                                                   25,0

                      5000
                                                                                                                                                                                   20,0

                      4000

                                                                                                                                                                                   15,0

                      3000

                                                                                                                                                                                   10,0
                      2000

                                                                                                                                                                                   5,0
                      1000

                         0                                                                                                                                                         0,0
                             4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to 4 WEEK to
                              29/09/19  27/10/19  24/11/19  22/12/19  19/01/20  16/02/20  15/03/20  12/04/20  10/05/20  07/06/20  05/07/20  02/08/20  30/08/20

     Top 10 Branded Fresh Cream SKUs                                                                      © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   31
     Top 1000 Stores
GROWTHS FROM AROUND THE GLOBE
Global data up to 30 August 2020

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IRI COVID-19 Dashboard Menu Link
                                                                  Go to our website for more detail →

Latest insights from the IRI Demand Index w/ending 27.09.2020 include:

• Consumer demand in CPG remains elevated for total CPG compared to a year ago for all countries except France, which is stable versus
  last year. High demand in Non-Edible is tempered by lower demand in Edible in France

• In the U.S. demand for grocery is outpacing non-edible. In demand for non-edible is higher. U.K is showing similar demand levels across
  both Edible and Non-Edible

• Highest demand versus LY is seen in the US and this is driven by Frozen, particularly meat and beverages

• Each country indicates different category trends in edible but there are some consistencies. Frozen is driving U.S, UK, the Netherlands
  and Italy. Alcohol is also prominent in U.K, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany

• Non-Edible demand is behind versus LY in Germany. This is driven by Air Care, Cosmetics, Textile & Pet

• Homecare demand remains high and is driving Non-Edible across many countries. Health demand has dropped off in the Netherlands

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Insights and Strategic
Guidance for Better Decisions
IRI’s Online Resources Include Real-Time
Updates and Weekly Reports Which Track
the Impact of the Virus on CPG and Retail
The IRI COVID-19 Info Portal
Includes COVID-19 impact analyses, dashboards
and the latest thought leadership on supply chain,
consumer behavior, channel shifts for the U.S.
AND international markets

The COVID-19 Dashboard and
The IRI CPG Demand Index™
Accessible through the insights portal
and tracks the daily impact of COVID-19.
This includes the new IRI CPG Demand
Index™, top selling and out of stock
categories across countries, and
consumer sentiment on social media.

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