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Supporting economic growth in uncertain times
Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe Haven
Enterprise visa holders
Policy options paper, September 2021
John van Kooy
© Barat Ali Batoor
Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
Haven Enterprise visa holders
Summary
The current timeframes for reopening Australia’s borders remain unknown, due to the need to reach
specified COVID-19 vaccination levels. As a result, there is ongoing uncertainty about a return to
‘business as usual’ for many industries and the economy as a whole. Despite the brake on economic
growth caused by a reduction in our immigration program, Australia has an opportunity to boost the
supply of migrant workers in key areas of labour demand through providing residency pathways for
temporary protection visa holders. Nearly 20,000 people currently living in the community on
Temporary Protection visas (TPVs) and Safe Haven Enterprise visas (SHEVs) aspire to settle in
Australia and make lifetime contributions to our society and economy.
• Around 90% of TPV and SHEV holders are at peak earning ages (under 45), have functional
English skills, and many have years of sought-after work experience as chefs, personal
carers, construction workers, carpenters, builders and plumbers.
• However, temporary visa status prevents TPV and SHEV holders from buying their own
homes, investing in their businesses and settling in Australian communities. Temporary visa
holders are also ineligible to reunite with their families by bringing them to Australia so they
need to send significant remittances to their families living overseas, which constitutes a
financial loss to the Australian economy.
• Permanency would lead to better labour market outcomes for TPV and SHEV holders and
incentivise domestic consumption and investment. ABS data indicates that when temporary
migrants transition to permanent residency, labour force participation rates increase by 23%
and unemployment rates are more than halved.
• Prioritising existing onshore migrants for permanent residency will contribute to fiscal
savings of more than $300 million by reducing the cost of reprocessing visa applications.
• Transitioning to permanent residency will deliver long-term economic returns on investment
by enabling migrants to upgrade their skills, sustain and grow their own businesses, employ
other workers, and integrate into their local communities.
We recommend that the Australian Government allow TPV and SHEV holders to access a
simplified residency pathway.
• This can be done by amending the existing Skilled Independent (Subclass 189) visa to
create a stream for TPV and SHEV holders who have demonstrated a commitment and
contribution to the Australian economy and society, so they can live and work in Australia
permanently. An amendment has already been made to the Subclass 189 visa to meet the
particular requirements of New Zealand citizens.
• A TPV/SHEV stream would permit individuals to apply for permanent residence if they have
worked and/or studied full-time in Australia without receiving the Special Benefit payment
for at least 3 years in the 5 years immediately before applying for the visa.
• Exemptions should exist for SHEV and TPV holders who are unable to meet this requirement
due to reasons including but not limited to:
• Inability to work due to COVID-19 pandemic;
• Physical or mental health issues;
• Caring responsibilities; and/or
• Family violence.
These achievable measures would enable nearly 20,000 SHEV and TPV holders to contribute to
Australia’s population agenda: improving our quality of life, supporting economic growth, ensuring
sustainable urban and regional growth, and encouraging community cohesion.1
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Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
Haven Enterprise visa holders
Overview: the opportunity
The sustainability of Australia’s economic growth depends on a robust immigration program.
Immigration brings in working-age people, slows the transition to an older population, and improves
Australia’s economic outcomes. Federal Treasury analysis recognises that, aside from youthfulness
and diverse skills, new arrivals bring language abilities and entrepreneurial qualities, as well as
diversifying Australian businesses to help them innovate in the face of global competition and
technological change.2 Permanent migrants have better labour market outcomes than temporary
migrants, and are incentivised to consume and invest more domestically, while contributing to the
sustainability of government services.3
With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, Australia’s borders have effectively closed, and
under likely restrictions scenarios may not fully open again for several years.4 This means that
Australia will not be settling the new migrants that have supported our prosperity for so long.
According to the OECD, the limits on Australia’s immigration program are effectively putting a brake
on economic growth.5 The industries that will see increased labour demand in the coming years—
such as hospitality and aged care—will not have access to the steady supply of workers that have
previously driven up business output, expansion and investment.6 The construction sector has
recognised this challenge, and in 2020 made urgent calls for a return to immigration.7 State
lockdowns and border restrictions have also driven down internal migration within Australia,
depriving many regional communities of the chance to attract and retain migrant workers.8
There are, however, thousands of temporary migrants already living in Australia who could fill these
gaps in the market. Despite the challenges and the uncertain timeframe of Australia’s COVID
recovery, we have a unique opportunity to boost the supply of migrants who make contributions
over their lifetime by opening up permanent residency pathways for nearly 20,000 people currently
holding either a Temporary Protection visa (TPV) or Safe Haven Enterprise visa (SHEV).
The Australian Government recognises that TPV and SHEV holders are refugees, unable to return to
their home countries because of the risk of persecution. The vast majority are at ‘peak’ earning ages,
where Federal Treasury predicts taxable income is highest and where individuals are least likely to
claim government services or payments.9 According to Census statistics, the cohort of TPV and SHEV
holders is overwhelming male (80%) and young (91% were under the age of 45 in 2016).
TPV and SHEV holders have high rates of labour force participation. At Census in 2016, the
participation rate— or the proportion of individuals over 18 who were either working or looking for
work—was 54%, which is higher than for permanent refugees (42%) and approaching similar rates as
Australian-born residents (68%). These rates are more impressive given that TPV and SHEV holders
have not historically had access to federal employment or settlement services, combined with
employment barriers such as inadequate skills recognition and discrimination.10 Five years on from
the Census, this labour force participation rate is now likely to be significantly higher.
Business ownership rates are also high: at Census, 12% of people who now hold TPVs or SHEVs ran
their own business—higher than for permanent refugees, family migrants and even skilled migrants
in 2016. This reflects the determination, entrepreneurship and resilience of many temporary visa
holders.
Many SHEV and TPV holders also have work experience in areas where there will be growing labour
demand in the coming years. At Census, the top 20 professions for temporary visa holders included
occupations that the National Skills Commission considers will see significant growth to 2025: such
as hospitality (chefs, kitchenhands), social services (aged and disability care), and construction and
skilled labouring work (carpenters and joiners, builders and plumbers).11
3
Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
Haven Enterprise visa holders
© Barat Ali Batoor
Being a temporary resident prevents TPV and SHEV holders from maximising their contributions to
Australia, such as through securing a home or business loan to invest locally. To purchase property,
for example, temporary residents incur additional fees as they are classified as ‘foreign investors.’12
The international evidence shows that permanent residency improves labour market outcomes for
migrants and incentivises their domestic consumption and investment, while also contributing to the
sustainability of government services.13 Data from the 2019 ABS Characteristics of Recent Migrants
Survey shows that migrants who arrive on temporary visas and eventually transition to permanent
residence increase their participation in the labour market by 23% and slash their unemployment
rates by more than half.14
The recent Parliamentary Inquiry into Skilled Migration also heard from Australian employers who
were concerned that workers who do not have a permanent pathway feel less committed to their
company’s long-term goals.15 Research has also shown that permanent residency can prevent much
of the occupational downgrading, workplace exploitation and discrimination that is common
amongst temporary migrants.16 Another Parliamentary Inquiry into Temporary Migration noted that
the erosion of pathways to permanent migration, coupled with increasing complexity and delays in
applications were having a negative implication for Australia’s long term social cohesion and
increased the vulnerability of temporary visa holders to exploitation.17
For TPV holders, there is currently no pathway to permanent residency. SHEV holders do have
limited access to residency pathways once their current visa expires, but these options have high
bars to entry. As of March 2021, only 84 people who hold or previously held a SHEV had applied for
a permanent visa, and only seven had been granted one.18 SHEV holders must also meet certain
pathway requirements: working without receiving social security payments and/or studying full-time
4
Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
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in a designated regional area for a total of 3½ years.19 These are typically prohibitive conditions for
most humanitarian migrants, as then-Immigration Minister Scott Morrison said in 2014:
[T]hese benchmarks […] are very high. Our experience on resettlement for people in this
situation would mean that this is a very high bar to clear. Good luck to them if they choose
to do that and if they achieve it […] There is an opportunity here but I think it is a very
limited opportunity and we will see how it works out. But at the end of the day, no-one is
getting a permanent protection visa.
– The Hon. Scott Morrison, MP, 25 September 201420
With current residency pathways largely unattainable for TPV and SHEV holders, Australia is missing
out on an opportunity to offset the negative effects that the stalled immigration program is having
on our economic prosperity. As a recent Senate Inquiry found, ‘Australia’s long term interests are
best served when temporary migration is considered a genuine pathway to permanent residence in
Australia.’21
Recommendation: pathway to permanency
This report is based on research with community sector organisations and informed by consultations
with people holding TPVs and SHEVs. Our central recommendation is that the Australian
Government should mature current immigration policy to allow TPV and SHEV holders to access a
simplified residency pathway.
Specifically, we recommend that the Australian Government allow TPV and SHEV holders to access
a simplified residency pathway.
• This can be done by amending the existing Skilled Independent (Subclass 189) visa to create a
stream for TPV and SHEV holders who have demonstrated a commitment and contribution to
the Australian economy and society, so they can live and work in Australia permanently. An
amendment has already been made to the Subclass 189 visa to meet the particular
requirements of New Zealand citizens.
• A TPV/SHEV stream would permit individuals to apply for permanent residence if they have
worked and/or studied full-time in Australia without receiving the Special Benefit payment for at
least 3 years in the 5 years immediately before applying for the visa.
• Exemptions should exist for SHEV and TPV holders who are unable to meet this requirement due
to reasons including but not limited to:
• Inability to work due to COVID-19 pandemic;
• Physical or mental health issues;
• Caring responsibilities; and/or
• Family violence.
In 2004 the Howard government faced similar challenges and amended the Migration Regulations to
allow TPV holders to apply for a range of non protection-based visas onshore. The changes
recognised that many TPV holders were making a significant contribution to the community and had
established links with Australia through work and social engagement. This paper proposes that
similar steps be taken for TPV and SHEV holders who have been assessed to be refugees.
The above amendment would create real opportunities for aspiring Australians on TPVs or SHEVs to
settle in their communities and contribute to the economy over their lifetimes. A pathway to
permanency represents a win-win scenario for these aspiring new Australians and for the Australian
community as a whole, boosting our supply of ready and able workers when we need it most.
5Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
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Who are TPV and SHEV holders?
Temporary Protection visas (subclass 785) and Safe Haven Enterprise visas (subclass 790) are
available to onshore applicants recognised as refugees or who otherwise satisfy Australia’s
humanitarian protection obligations, but who arrived in Australia without a valid visa or were
refused immigration clearance at the border.22 The 2014 Maritime Powers Legislation Amendment
Bill made SHEVs and TPVs available to applicants who arrived in Australia between 13 August 2012
and 1 January 2014.23 Refugees in this caseload are typically granted a Bridging visa E (BVE) while
waiting for an outcome of their applications for a substantive visa.
As of March 2021, a total of 19,322 visas (6,596 TPVs and 12,726 SHEVs) had been granted.24 By June
2021, 3,918 applications were still ‘on hand’ with the Department of Home Affairs, meaning they
were still being processed.25 As at March 2021, bridging visa holders had been waiting, on average,
approximately three years and four months for an outcome of their application for a TPV or SHEV.26
Demographics
Reporting by the Department of Home Affairs indicates that the main countries of citizenship for
SHEV/TPV holders are Iran (32%), Afghanistan (23%), Sri Lanka (12%), Pakistan (7%) and Iraq (6%). A
further 12% of finalised visas went to stateless persons.27 The majority of visa holders reside in
either Victoria or NSW (70%), with 12% in Queensland and 10% in Western Australia, and are
overwhelmingly men between the ages of 18 and 45.28
Visa timelines
Departmental data also indicates that between August 2021 and September 2022, some 402 TPVs
and 4,877 SHEVs are due to expire (see Figure 1), meaning that these individuals must reapply either
for another TPV or SHEV (for which the Australian Government incurs administrative costs), attempt
to access one of the few existing residency pathways (for SHEV holders), or face removal.29
Figure 1. Visas by expected cessation month
700
600
500
400
300 TPV
200 SHEV
100
-
21
22
22
2
2
22
1
2
22
2
1
21
21
22
t-2
r-2
-2
-2
-2
l-2
p-
b-
p-
n-
g-
v-
n-
c-
ar
g
ay
Ju
Oc
Ap
De
No
Au
Au
Se
Fe
Se
Ju
Ja
M
M
Source: Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee, Home Affairs Portfolio (2019).
6Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
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Using linked Census data to better understand the TPV and SHEV cohort
As detailed information about SHEV, TPV or BVE holders is not publicly available, this report
uses the Australian Census and Temporary Entrants Integrated Dataset (ACTEID) dataset
released in 2019, which links 2016 Census data with temporary visa holder data provided by the
Department of Home Affairs.30
We use data from BVE respondents on Census night who arrived in Australia between 2012–14
as a proxy cohort. We then compare Census BVE respondents to the characteristics of some
permanent visa/citizenship categories to highlight similarities and differences.
The profile of BVE holders—now predominantly SHEV and TPV holders—is different from permanent
migrants and Australian citizens in some significant ways (see Table 1). Firstly, the vast majority of
TPV and SHEV holders are at ‘peak earning ages’—Federal Treasury predicts that this is where
taxable income is highest, and where individuals are least likely to claim government services or
payments (see Figure 2).31 The BVE cohort on Census night was overwhelming male (80%) and young
(91% were under the age of 45). In comparison, more than one in five (21%) family visa holders and
37% of Australian-born residents were over the age of 45.
Figure 2. Government spending and taxable income by age of population
Source: Treasury, ‘2021 Intergenerational Report’, p. 34.
At Census, the BVE cohort had high rates of labour force participation and business ownership. The
participation rate—the proportion of individuals over 18 years old who were either working or
looking for work—was 54%, which is higher than for the permanent refugee cohort (42%) and
approaching similar rates as Australian-born residents (68%). Of this group, 63% reported currently
being in employment. Employment rates were particularly high amongst BVE holders from
Afghanistan (76%) and Sri Lanka (72%).
These rates are impressive given that BVE holders are not eligible for federal employment or
settlement support, combined with the employment barriers that temporary humanitarian migrants
face, including inadequate skills recognition and discrimination.32 Nevertheless, business ownership
rates were higher amongst BVE holders (12% amongst those over 18 years old) than for
permanent refugees, family migrants and even skilled migrants in 2016. This statistic reflects the
determination, resilience and the necessity of self-employment for many temporary humanitarian
residents. Given that nearly 20,000 people in the Census BVE group have now been in Australia for
7Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
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nearly 10 years, we should also expect that participation, employment and business ownership rates
are now higher than they were in 2016.
Table 1. Summary statistics, Census and temporary migrants data, 2016
Temporarya Permanenta Citizens
BVEb Refugeec Family Skilled Aus-born
Sexd
Male 79.8% 55.9% 31.9% 48.8% 49.0%
Female 20.2% 44.2% 68.1% 51.2% 51.0%
Age
0-14 9.3% 22.8% 10.7% 23.3% 24.2%
15-24 18.1% 20.8% 12.6% 8.9% 14.1%
25-44 63.4% 37.9% 55.5% 58.1% 25.0%
45-64 8.5% 14.6% 15.1% 9.5% 23.2%
65+ 0.6% 3.9% 6.0% 0.2% 13.5%
Labour force participatione
Employment rate 63.2% 73.1% 86.9% 92.5% 94.1%
Unemployment rate 36.8% 26.9% 13.1% 7.5% 5.9%
Participation rate 54.1% 42.4% 60.6% 83.8% 68.3%
Status in employmente
Employee 88.3% 89.3% 89.1% 89.3% 83.6%
Business owner 11.7% 10.7% 10.9% 10.7% 16.4%
Occupation of personf
Managers 2.6% 3.3% 8.3% 10.8% 13.9%
Professionals 1.4% 4.5% 16.7% 30.6% 22.0%
Technicians & trades workers 36.8% 25.7% 10.6% 12.1% 14.4%
Community & personal service workers 4.6% 14.1% 18.9% 13.1% 10.9%
Clerical & administrative workers 1.7% 2.6% 11.8% 9.9% 14.8%
Sales workers 3.4% 4.9% 9.7% 7.2% 9.3%
Machinery operators & drivers 12.2% 10.4% 5.0% 4.1% 6.4%
Labourers 37.2% 34.4% 19.1% 12.2% 8.4%
Total weekly personal incomef
Negative or nil income 1.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7%
$1-499 ($1-25,999 pa.) 15.4% 24.0% 24.0% 11.6% 15.6%
$500-999 ($26,000-51,999 pa.) 60.6% 57.5% 44.8% 26.6% 31.8%
$1,000+ ($52,000+ pa.) 22.2% 17.6% 30.1% 61.0% 51.9%
Proficiency in spoken English
Very well or well 57.9% 56.3% 69.8% 91.6% 87.7%
Not well or not at all 42.2% 43.7% 30.2% 8.4% 12.3%
Educational statusd
Not attending 87.1% 56.7% 80.6% 81.8% 71.3%
Full-time student 7.9% 31.9% 11.2% 12.2% 23.8%
Part-time student 5.0% 11.4% 8.2% 6.0% 4.9%
a. Arrived in Australia between 2012-2014. d. Persons aged 15 years and over.
b. Bridging visa Class E (050). e. Persons aged 18 years and over.
c. Includes all Humanitarian and Refugee visa f. Employed persons, aged 18 years and over.
subclasses.
Source: Compiled with ABS TableBuilder
8Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
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Amongst those 18+ BVE holders who were in employment on Census night, nearly one-quarter
(22%) were earning at least $1,000 per week, or an equivalent annual salary of at least $52,000, with
the majority (61%) earning between $500 and $999 per week. Again, given the labour market
challenges that asylum seekers and temporary migrants face, this strong income distribution should
be considered impressive, and represents a solid taxation base for federal revenue.
Possessing English language skills is widely acknowledged as a predictor of employment and long-
term settlement success for humanitarian migrants.33 Despite not being eligible for free English
classes as part of federal settlement services, Census data shows that BVE holders of all age groups
had equivalent spoken English proficiency (58%) to refugees on permanent visas (56%).
In 2016, the BVE cohort had comparatively low rates of educational participation: only 13% of those
over 15 years old reported being a current student. This reflects the high bars to educational entry
for temporary humanitarian migrants: subsidised courses and student loans are largely not available
to this cohort.34 However, the comparatively high rates of educational participation for permanent
refugees (43% were students) confirms that humanitarian migrants do invest in renewing their
formal skills and qualifications, including English language skills, after securing settlement status in
Australia.35 This suggests that many SHEV and TPV holders would take up educational and skills
training opportunities in Australia were they granted permanent residency.
Occupational data indicates that many current SHEV and TPV holders have experience in areas
where there will be growing labour demand in the coming years. The majority (86%) of employed
BVE holders over 18 years old were either technicians or trades workers, labourers or machinery
operators and drivers on Census night. Comparing this with recent projections by the National Skills
Commission, the top 20 professions for BVE holders included high growth occupations in hospitality
(chefs, kitchenhands), social services (aged and disability care), and construction and skilled
labouring work (carpenters and joiners, builders and plumbers) (see Table 2). A Deloitte Access
Economics report argued recently that migrants employed in care work, in particular, are critical to
meet the future demands of Australia’s ageing population, as well as the workforce demands that
would be created by the expansion of large-scale programs like the National Disability Insurance
Scheme.36
© Barat Ali Batoor
9Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
Haven Enterprise visa holders
We recognise that, as with any population group, there are also SHEV and TPV holders who have
reduced capacity for labour market participation due to caring responsibilities, disability and other
limiting factors. For example, at Census approximately 60% of BVE holders who were providing care
for children (and 78% of women providing this form of care) were not in the labour force. Similarly,
52% of all BVE holders who provided assistance to a person with a disability, long-term health
condition or problems related to old age (and 71% of women providing this form of care) were not in
the labour force. These individuals provide some of the unpaid care work that has been estimated to
be worth, in total, over $650bn to the Australian economy.37 They are critical contributions that
offset the costs of governments services and often enable the participation of other household
members in the economy.
Table 2. Top 20 professions of BVE holders in 2016 and recent labour market analysis
Census 2016 Employment change (%)
Quarter to May- 5-year growth
Total BVE holdersa
21 to Nov-25
Occupation of person
Painting Trades Workers 754 +14.2 +2.6
Wall and Floor Tilers 550 +3.9 -4.6
Commercial Cleaners 449 +8.0 +7.8
Packers 343 +9.7 +4.0
Automobile Drivers 298 -1.5 +9.6
Plasterers 288 -14.2 -6.1
Building and Plumbing Labourers 272 +9.2 +6.5
Meat, Poultry and Seafood Process Workers 259 -10.2 -4.3
Bricklayers and Stonemasons 241 -2.7 +2.0
Sales Assistants (General) 219 +6.8 +2.2
Kitchenhands 207 +13.2 +6.9
Truck Drivers 197 -15.2 +6.5
Chefs 189 +2.8 +19.4
Crop Farm Workers 180 -28.7 -1.4
Food and Drink Factory Workers 153 +12.1 +6.8
Storepersons 144 -7.4 +2.7
Forklift Drivers 138 -2.4 -1.0
Labourers 135 +8.6 +0.1
Carpenters and Joiners 133 +11.1 +8.1
Aged and Disabled Carers 99 +4.3 +24.7
a. All BVE holders responding to the Census question.
Sources: Column 1 compiled with ABS TableBuilder. Columns 2 & 3 derived from National Skills
Commission, ‘Occupation projections – five years to November 2025’ (Australian Government, 2020).
10Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
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Case study: Ali
Ali fled Afghanistan to seek asylum in Australia
in 2012. He waited five years for his refugee
claim to be processed and was granted a five-
year Safe Haven Enterprise visa. This
temporary visa makes it very difficult for him
to expand his business.
“I am a painter. I have my own business
and I hire other people. I started the
business around one year ago.
I was a painter before I came to Australia. Since arriving here, I have completed
Certificates 3 and 4 in English and certificates in painting and business. I had to
pay international student fees because of my visa.
If I am working at a private household, they ask me how long I have been in
Australia, and I say I have been here for nine years. I never tell people I am on
a temporary visa as they don't understand.
If I apply for a bigger job, for example, like painting a new apartment building,
the contractor wants information about my visa and right to work. Even
though I have a visa with work rights, they do not want to give me the work as
they are concerned my visa may expire.
I cannot get a bank loan to improve my business. If I want to buy equipment or
a car for my business, I have to pay cash.
Being on a temporary visa has also affected my mental health. Not being able
to see my family, or bring them here, makes me very sad. And now there is the
terrible situation in Afghanistan. It is so hard to concentrate and I find it
difficult to talk to people.”
There are thousands of young people like Ali working across different industries and across
different parts of Australia who are in the same situation. Opening up pathways to permanent
residency for TPV and SHEV holders would allow them to seek secure employment
opportunities, grow their businesses, and maximise their skills, abilities and experience.
Getting back on track with immigration and economic growth
Current timeframes for reopening Australia’s borders, achieving satisfactory COVID-19 public
vaccination levels and a return to ‘business as usual’ for the economy remain uncertain. The
pandemic forced the closure of Australia’s borders in 2020 and effectively halted the refugee
resettlement program, with the Government’s Centre for Population predicting that immigration will
not return to pre-COVID levels until 2028–29.38 The National Cabinet recently agreed to a four-phase
national plan to reopening borders, which allows for capped entry of humanitarian visa holders
(subject to testing and quarantine arrangements) only in Phase 3, though no specific schedule is
attached to the plan.39
Despite this uncertainty, we know that temporary migrants already residing in Australia remain
prime candidates for transition to permanent residency, and this makes economic sense. The
Australian Government has had an explicit policy of prioritising onshore applicants for permanent
places in the immigration program. Two-thirds (66%) of all permanent visas in 2019–20 were
11Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
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granted to people already residing in Australia holding other visas, representing an increase of
almost 12 percentage points over the previous fiscal year (see Figure 3).40 The 2021–22 Federal
Budget also highlighted that prioritising existing onshore applicants for permanent visas (and the
policy change of setting visa ‘ceilings’ as opposed to ‘targets’ which do not need to be met) was
expected to save the Government nearly $300m over the forward estimates (to 2024–25).41
Transitioning existing SHEV and TPV holders to permanent residency would add to these savings
through a reduction in reprocessing costs for temporary visa schemes.
Figure 3. Permanent additions to Australia's population, last two FYs42
2018–19 53.9% 46.1%
2019–20 65.6% 34.4%
Onshore Settler arrivals
Improving labour market outcomes
Evidence from Australia and overseas shows that having secure immigration status improves labour
market outcomes for migrants and incentivises their consumption and investment in the domestic
economy.43 In economic terms, Treasury has recognised that permanency for migrants increases
overall domestic consumption (by creating a larger pool of consumers for goods and services, which
increases GDP), encourages personal and business investment and capital flows, and contributes to
sustainability of government services.44 In the case of skilled or highly educated migrants, creating
more pathways to permanency gives Australia a unique opportunity for ‘brain gain.’45
Data from the 2019 ABS Characteristics of Recent Migrants Survey (CoRMS)46 shows that, when
migrants who arrive on a temporary visa eventually transition to permanent residency or Australian
citizenship, they experience a significant improvement in labour market outcomes (see Table 3).
Labour force participation increases by a factor of nearly one-quarter, while the unemployment rate
is slashed by more than half.
Table 3. Change in labour force status of temporary and permanent migrants, Nov 2019
Initial residency status (on
arrival) to Current status
Temporary – Temporary –
Temporary Permanent
Labour force status Pct. change
Participation rate 68.7% 84.5% 23.0% p
Employment rate 95.1% 97.7% 2.7% p
Unemployment rate 4.9% 2.3% -53.1% q
Source: ABS, Characteristics of recent migrants (2020), Compiled with TableBuilder.
Australian businesses also recognise the importance of offering pathways to permanency for
temporary migrants. The recent Parliamentary Inquiry into Skilled Migration included submissions
from companies such as tech giant Atlassian and graphic design firm Canva, who reported that
12Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
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several of their employees on temporary visas were signalling their intention to leave and settle
elsewhere—meaning the employer would ‘miss out on the investment made in the individual as well
as their niche skill sets.’47 Immigration law firm Fragomen also said that ‘simpler and more certain
pathways from temporary to permanent residence will improve Australia’s attractiveness and also
provide better settlement and integration outcomes for the visa holder.’48
Family reunion and remittances
Permanent residency opens up family reunion options for which current TPV and SHEV holders are
currently ineligible. As family members can be included on permanent visa applications, this would
remove the need for a costly and uncertain process with several steps. Research shows that family
reunification is critical for migrants’ settlement success.49 It also has a downstream benefit to the
Australian economy: a reduction in remittances—essentially cash transfers sent to family and friends
overseas. Modelling by the Australian Centre for Financial Studies indicates that as migrants settle
and acquire loans, mortgages, and other financial products, there is a concurrent reduction in
remittances over time (see Figure 4).50
Figure 4. Migrant financial life cycle
Settlement
1. ARRIVAL 2. STABILISATION 3. CONSOLIDATION
stage
Transfer money home Buy consumer durables, hold Buy house, insurance, hold
Financial
current account, transfer current account
needs
money
REMITTANCE
30%
REMITTANCE
70% Credit card and
Financial
REMITTANCE account financing
products
100% 40%
held
Credit card and Loan products, mortgage
account financing and insurances
30% 30%
Source: Adapted from Australian Centre for Financial Studies (2012).
Total remittances sent overseas from Australia in 2020 was $4.3bn, or 0.3% of GDP, making Australia
one of the largest remittance-sending countries in the world.51 Some estimates put the proportion of
humanitarian migrants who have sent money to their homelands at 70%.52 With the deteriorating
political and humanitarian situation in countries like Afghanistan, the imperative to support family
members overseas until they can be reunited in Australia will likely continue.
A Monash University study found that—much like the TPV and SHEV cohort—the vast majority of
remitters are men of ‘prime’ working age, living in single-headed or group households, with greater
capacity to engage in paid work.53 However, with available transitions to permanent residency and
family reunion, we expect the volume of remittances from the TPV and SHEV cohort to follow the
life cycle model presented above, with money being redirected towards domestic consumption and
investment as migrants ‘stabilise’ and ‘consolidate’ settlement in Australia.
13Supporting economic growth in uncertain times: Permanent pathways for Temporary Protection visa and Safe
Haven Enterprise visa holders
Case study: Pari
Pari is a 22-year-old university
student on a SHEV visa. An Afghan
national born in Iran, Pari came to
Australia by boat when she was 13
years old with her parents and some
other siblings. Her parents are unable
to work due to injury, older age and
lack of English skills. Pari provides
them with financial support for rent
and food and regularly helps them
with Centrelink and other everyday
issues. Pari is unable to move to a
designated regional area to meet the SHEV pathway requirements as she has to care for her
extended family.
Pari went to high school in Australia and studied at an intensive English Centre for one and a
half years, completing her mainstream secondary studies in 2017. Aspiring to be a lawyer so she
could help refugees, Pari then went to TAFE and completed a Certificate III and IV in Legal
Studies. As a SHEV holder she had to pay full course fees amounting to $12,000. Her parents
could not help with the fees as their only income was from Centrelink, so she borrowed money
from a friend.
Pari initially had difficulties getting a job due to her lack of work experience. She applied for a
job at a fast-food restaurant but was told they prefer applicants who had Permanent Residency.
After completing her TAFE courses, Pari got a job as a legal secretary. For six months she worked
at minimum wage to pay back the loan and to try to save money for university.
Pari soon completed an alternative entry pathway course for university and was offered a place
in a Bachelor of Laws. As she is a temporary visa holder, she is excluded from accessing
Commonwealth supported places and Fee HELP as these are only available to citizens or
permanent residents. Pari pays full international student fees amounting to approximately
$3,500 per unit. She works to cover her university fees, while helping her parents out with rent,
food and bills. Making sure the family has enough money is a constant struggle for Pari.
In her first semester of university, Pari did only one unit and became very depressed about her
situation—she realised it would take her many years to get her legal qualification while studying
part-time. She struggled with her concentration, which impacted her ability to do as well as she
had hoped.
When she was recently offered a new job as a legal assistant, Pari’s employer requested that
she provide evidence of an application for a new visa at least three months before her current
SHEV expires. This has caused Pari a lot of stress, as her paid work is now conditional on her visa
status. She works full-time to pay the university units she is able to take and support her family.
She is only able to study online and cannot attend university in person, meaning she misses out
on support from staff and other students.
For Pari, having access to Permanent Residence would mean a great deal. She has never felt she
belonged anywhere—growing up as a refugee in Iran she did not have legal status and
experienced discrimination. Permanent status in Australia would enable Pari to attend
university full-time, access a HECS loan to pay for her studies, complete them faster and follow
her career path as a qualified lawyer.
14Endnotes
1 COAG, ‘National Population and Planning Framework’ https://doi.org/10.3316/informit.904070209207799;
(Council of Australian Governments (COAG), February John van Kooy and Dina Bowman, ‘“Surrounded with so
2020), Much Uncertainty”: Asylum Seekers and Manufactured
https://population.gov.au/publications/publications- Precarity in Australia’, Journal of Ethnic and Migration
framework.html. Studies 45, no. 5 (4 April 2019): 693–710,
https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2018.1427563;
2 Treasury, ‘2021 Intergenerational Report: Australia
Oxfam Australia and Deloitte Access Economics,
over the next 40 Years’ (Commonwealth of Australia,
‘Economic and Social Impact of Increasing Australia’s
June 2021); Treasury & Department of Home Affairs,
Humanitarian Intake’ (Oxfam Australia and Deloitte
‘Shaping a Nation: Population Growth and Immigration
Access Economics, August 2019).
over Time’ (Australian Government, 2018).
11 National Skills Commission, ‘Occupation Projections –
3 Alessio Cangiano, ‘Migration Policies and Migrant
Five Years to November 2025’.
Employment Outcomes’, Comparative Migration Studies
2, no. 4 (December 2014): 417–43, 12ATO, ‘Foreign Investment in Australia: What You Need
https://doi.org/10.5117/CMS2014.4.CANG; Yuliya to Know’, Australian Taxation Office (Australian Taxation
Kosyakova and Hanna Brenzel, ‘The Role of Length of Office, 12 August 2021),
Asylum Procedure and Legal Status in the Labour Market https://www.ato.gov.au/general/other-languages/in-
Integration of Refugees in Germany’, SozW Soziale Welt detail/information-in-other-languages/foreign-
71, no. 1–2 (2020): 123–59, investment-in-australia--what-you-need-to-
https://doi.org/10.5771/0038-6073-2020-1-2-123. know/?default.
4Centre for Population, ‘Population Statement’ 13See for example Cangiano, ‘Migration Policies and
(Australian Government, December 2020). Migrant Employment Outcomes’; Kosyakova and
Brenzel, ‘The Role of Length of Asylum Procedure and
5OECD, ‘OECD Economic Outlook’ (OECD Publishing,
Legal Status in the Labour Market Integration of
2021), https://www.oecd.org/economy/australia-
Refugees in Germany’.
economic-snapshot/.
14ABS, ‘Characteristics of Recent Migrants, November
6National Skills Commission, ‘Occupation Projections –
2019 | Australian Bureau of Statistics’, Australian Bureau
Five Years to November 2025’, 2020 Employment
of Statistics, 6 December 2020,
Projections (Australian Government, 2020),
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-
https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/GainInsights/Em
communities/characteristics-recent-migrants/latest-
ploymentProjections; Philip Lowe, ‘The Labour Market
release.
and Monetary Policy’ (Speech, Economic Society of
Australia, Queensland, 8 July 2021), 15Joint Standing Committee on Migration, ‘Final Report
https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-gov-2021- of the Inquiry into Australia’s Skilled Migration’
07-08.html. (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, August 2021).
7 Anna Boucher and Robert Breunig, ‘We Need to 16Anna Ziersch et al., ‘Temporary Refugee and Migration
Restart Immigration Quickly to Drive Economic Growth. Visas in Australia: An Occupational Health and Safety
Here’s One Way to Do It Safely’, The Conversation, 15 Hazard’, International Journal of Health Services, 28
October 2020, http://theconversation.com/we-need-to- January 2021, 0020731420980688,
restart-immigration-quickly-to-drive-economic-growth- https://doi.org/10.1177/0020731420980688.
heres-one-way-to-do-it-safely-147744; Diana Mousina, 17Select Committee on Temporary Migration, ‘Final
‘Econosights: Coronavirus and Migration – Impacts to
report on Temporary Migration’ (Canberra:
Australia from Lower Population Growth’, AMP Capital,
Commonwealth of Australia, September 2021).
23 June 2020,
https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights- 18Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee, ‘Question
hub/articles/2020/june/econosights-coronavirus-and- on Notice No. 363’, 2021-22 Budget Estimates (Portfolio
migration-impacts-to-Australia-from-lower-population- question number: BE21-363, 2021).
growth.
19 Department of Home Affairs, ‘Safe Haven Enterprise
8 Centre for Population, ‘Population Statement’. Visa Pathway’, Immigration and citizenship, 30 July
2021, https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a-
9Treasury, ‘2021 Intergenerational Report: Australia
visa/visa-listing/safe-haven-enterprise-790/shev-
over the next 40 Years’.
pathway/overview.
10Caroline Fleay, Anita Lumbus, and Lisa Hartley, 20Scott Morrison, ‘Transcript of Press Conference:
‘People Seeking Asylum in Australia and Their Access to
Parliament House, Canberra: 25 September 2014:
Employment: Just What Do We Know?’, Cosmopolitan
Reintroducing TPVs to Resolve Labor’s Asylum Legacy
Civil Societies: An Interdisciplinary Journal 8, no. 2: 63–
83, accessed 23 July 2021,
15110–29,
Caseload; Cambodia’, ParlInfo, 25 September 2014, https://doi.org/10.3316/informit.640661581186422.
https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/disp 34AMES Australia, ‘Safe Haven Enterprise Visa (SHEV)
lay.w3p;query=Id%3A%22media%2Fpressrel%2F341455 Holders in Victoria’, Research Briefing (AMES Australia,
1%22. April 2020).
21Select Committee on Temporary Migration, ‘Final 35Oxfam Australia and Deloitte Access Economics,
report on Temporary Migration’ (Canberra: ‘Economic and Social Impact of Increasing Australia’s
Commonwealth of Australia, September 2021). Humanitarian Intake’.
22 Department of Home Affairs, ‘Subclass 785 Temporary 36 Ibid.
Protection Visa’, Immigration and citizenship, 23 July
2021, https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a- 37WGEA, ‘Unpaid Care Work and the Labour Market’,
visa/visa-listing/temporary-protection-785; Department Insight Paper (Workplace Gender Equality Agency, 9
of Home Affairs, ‘Subclass 790 Safe Haven Enterprise November 2016).
Visa’, Immigration and citizenship, 26 July 2021, 38 Centre for Population, ‘Population Statement’.
https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a-
visa/visa-listing/safe-haven-enterprise-790. 39Australian Government, ‘National Plan to Transition
Australia’s National COVID-19 Response’ (Australian
23Morrison, ‘Transcript of Press Conference: Parliament
Government, 2 July 2021),
House, Canberra: 25 September 2014: Reintroducing
https://www.pm.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/natio
TPVs to Resolve Labor’s Asylum Legacy Caseload; nal-plan-to-transition-australias-national-covid-19-
Cambodia’.
response-july-2021-2.pdf.
24Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee, Home 40Department of Home Affairs, ‘Permanent Additions to
Affairs Portfolio, ‘Program 2.2: Visas’, Home Affairs
Australia’s Resident Population’, data.gov.au, 15
Portfolio (BE21-359 - TPV and SHEV - Grants, May 2021).
October 2020, https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dga-
25Department of Home Affairs, ‘IMA Legacy Caseload: e87976fd-c545-4ec0-ab5b-034080868624/details?q=.
Report on Processing Status and Outcomes’ (Australian 41Treasury, ‘Budget Measures: Budget Paper No. 2,
Government, June 2021).
2021–22’ (Commonwealth of Australia, 11 May 2021).
26Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee, Home 42Department of Home Affairs, ‘Permanent Additions to
Affairs Portfolio, ‘Question on Notice No. 467’, 2020-21
Australia’s Resident Population’.
Additional Estimates (Portfolio question number: AE21-
467, 22 March 2021). 43See for example Cangiano, ‘Migration Policies and
Migrant Employment Outcomes’; Kosyakova and
27Department of Home Affairs, ‘IMA Legacy Caseload:
Brenzel, ‘The Role of Length of Asylum Procedure and
Report on Processing Status and Outcomes’.
Legal Status in the Labour Market Integration of
28Department of Home Affairs, ‘Illegal Maritime Arrivals Refugees in Germany’.
on the Bridging E Visa’ (Australian Government, 31 44Treasury & Department of Home Affairs, ‘Shaping a
March 2021).
Nation: Population Growth and Immigration over Time’.
29Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee, Home 45 Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet,
Affairs Portfolio, ‘TPVs/SHEVs/Fast-Track’, Home Affairs
‘Investing in Refugees, Investing in Australia: The
Portfolio (SE19/322, 21 October 2019). Findings of a Review into Integration, Employment and
30ABS, ‘3419.0.55.001 - Microdata: Australian Census Settlement Outcomes for Refugees and Humanitarian
and Temporary Entrants Integrated Dataset, 2016’, Entrants in Australia’ (Commonwealth of Australia,
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 14 February 2019, 2019).
https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3 46The CoRMS surveys persons over the age of 15 who
419.0.55.001Main+Features12016.
were born overseas (excluding New Zealand) and had
31Treasury, ‘2021 Intergenerational Report: Australia arrived after 2009. See ABS, Characteristics of Recent
over the next 40 Years’. Migrants, Australia methodology’, Australian Bureau of
Statistics, 12 June 2020,
32Fleay, Lumbus, and Hartley, ‘People Seeking Asylum in https://www.abs.gov.au/methodologies/characteristics-
Australia and Their Access to Employment’; van Kooy recent-migrants-australia-methodology.
and Bowman, ‘“Surrounded with so Much Uncertainty”’;
Oxfam Australia and Deloitte Access Economics, 47Joint Standing Committee on Migration, ‘Final Report
‘Economic and Social Impact of Increasing Australia’s of the Inquiry into Australia’s Skilled Migration’, 37.
Humanitarian Intake’. 48 Ibid.
33See for example Aparna Hebbani and Megan Preece, 49See for example Brooke Wilmsen, ‘Family Separation
‘Spoken English Does Matter: Findings from an and the Impacts on Refugee Settlement in Australia’,
Exploratory Study to Identify Predictors of Employment Australian Journal of Social Issues 48, no. 2 (2013): 241–
among African Refugees in Brisbane’, The Australasian
Review of African Studies 36, no. 2 (December 2015):
16https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/migrationremitta
62, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1839- ncesdiasporaissues/brief/migration-remittances-data.
4655.2013.tb00280.x; Pieter Bevelander, ‘The 52Oxfam Australia and Deloitte Access Economics,
Employment Integration of Resettled Refugees, Asylum ‘Economic and Social Impact of Increasing Australia’s
Claimants, and Family Reunion Migrants in Sweden’, Humanitarian Intake’.
Refugee Survey Quarterly 30, no. 1 (1 March 2011): 22–
43, https://doi.org/10.1093/rsq/hdq041. 53Rebecca Wickes et al., ‘The Social Impact of Family
Separation on Refugee Settlement and Inclusion in
50Australian Centre for Financial Studies, ‘Remittances: Australia’ (Monash University, August 2019).
Their Role, Trends and Australian Opportunities’ (The
Australian Centre for Financial Studies (ACFS), 2012).
51World Bank, ‘Migration and Remittances Data’,
Text/HTML, World Bank, 2021,
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