The economic performance of English regions, cities and towns - UK Regional Economic forecast February 2020 - EY
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The economic
performance of
English regions,
cities and towns
UK Regional
Economic forecast
February 2020
Enter
Contents Introduction 03 Regional performance 04 Contact us 05 Economics for Business 06 Notes 07 About EY 10 Contents Introduction Regional performance Contact us Economics for Business Notes About EY ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
Introduction
We are very pleased We started this series to provide our support for the
programme of geographic rebalancing and we are
to share the fifth pleased that the new Government’s stated intention
economic forecast for to ‘level up’ suggests a renewed and possibly
enhanced focus on driving change. Recognising the
England’s regions, increased awareness of the challenges facing towns
across the country, we have expanded our forecast
leading cities and to provide more coverage of towns. Our teams
towns, continuing a across the country will be working to share more
of the detailed findings with local stakeholders.
programme we began
This document is intended to give details of the
in 2015. regional performance. Click here to download
the forecast in full.
Mark Gregory Debbie O’Hanlon
UK Chief Economist Managing Partner,
UK Regions
@MarkGregoryEY
uk.linkedin.com/in/ linkedin.com/in/
markgregoryuk debbieohanlonuk
Contents Introduction Regional performance Contact us Economics for Business Notes About EY ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
Regional performance
North
East
North
West
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
Navigate the map East
to find out about Midlands
each region West
Midlands East of
England
London
South East
South West
Contents Introduction Regional performance Contact us Economics for Business Notes About EY ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
Contact us
Bob Ward Suzanne Robinson Simon O’Neill
North West Yorkshire and North East Midlands
Senior Partner Senior Partner Senior Partner
bward1@uk.ey.com srobinson@uk.ey.com soneill@uk.ey.com
Richard Baker Andrew Perkins Caroline Artis
Thames Valley and South Coast South West London
Senior Partner Senior Partner Senior Partner
rbaker2@uk.ey.com aperkins@uk.ey.com cartis@uk.ey.com
Contents Introduction Regional performance Contact us Economics for Business Notes About EY ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
Economics for Business
Regional EY UK EY UK EY ITEM Club
Economic Forecast Attractiveness Attractiveness
Our latest Regional Economic 2018 Survey Special The only non-governmental
Forecast reveals the UK economy The latest EY UK Attractiveness Report forecasting group to use HM
is expected to strengthen over Survey shows an economy Treasury’s model of the UK
the coming months but the FDI flows into the UK are and Scottish economy.
in transition, influenced dominated by its largest
geographic imbalances between by Brexit and the force of
the North and South of England cities and towns at the
technological change. expense of the area
will widen over the next three
years unless a new approach around them.
to policy is adopted.
Read more Read more Read more Read more
Chief Economist, Mark
Gregory’s Blog
Awarded a ‘Top Voice’ on LinkedIn
in 2016, 2017 and 2018, UK Chief
Economist Mark Gregory delivers his Mark Gregory Debbie O’Hanlon Annabel Banks
regular economic analysis and latest UK Chief Economist Managing Partner, Media Relations
thoughts on data trends and policies. UK Regions Manager
economics@uk.ey.com dohanlon@uk.ey.com Annabel.Banks@uk.ey.com
Contents Introduction Regional performance Contact us Economics for Business Notes About EY ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
Notes on data and
forecast assumptions
The forecasts presented within this report Key data definitions include: Definitions of towns by size
are produced using the Oxford Economics • Total employment is jobs-based
Local Authority District Forecasting Model and includes employees in Villages (less than 5,000) Places with less than 5,000 residents
but are fully consistent with the EY ITEM employment, the self-employed, Communities (5–10k) Places with between 5,000 and 10,000 residents
Club Winter Forecast (January 2020). Her Majesty’s Forces and
Small towns (10k–30k) Towns with between 10,000 and 30,000 residents
government-supported trainees.
The forecasts depend essentially upon
• GVA data is presented in 2016 prices Medium towns (30k–75k) Towns with between 30,000 and 75,000 residents
three factors:
• National outlooks. and excludes output from the ‘extra Large towns (over 75k) Towns with over 75,000 residents
region’ i.e., the contribution from Core Cities Core cities as defined by Pike et al (2016)
• Historical trends in an area augmented
North Sea oil and gas extraction,
by local knowledge and understanding
UK embassies abroad and UK forces Source: Centre For Towns
of patterns of economic development
stationed overseas. The latter are
built up over decades of expertise.
included in the GDP definition used
• Fundamental economic relationships in the EY macroeconomic forecasts.
which interlink the various elements of
• Labour force unemployment is the
the outlook.
official unemployment measure
The forecasts are demand-based and and refers to the number of jobless
assume no supply-side constants. They people who want to work, are
also assume the continuation of existing available to work and are actively
Government policies, and those currently seeking employment.
announced. While the UK Government
• Any reference to workforce jobs
does not have a specific regional policy,
in the regional focus slides relates
some enterprise support is allocated
to employee jobs rather than total
locally, and infrastructure decisions
workforce jobs, given the volatility of
clearly have regional implications. The
the regional self-employment data.
devolved administrations have their own
responsibilities in these areas, which cause • The forecast period 2020-23 for
some differences in policies and priorities. the purpose of the report is based
on a three year forecast from the
end of 2020.
• The analysis in this report is based
on published data available on or
before 29 January 2020.
Contents Introduction Regional performance Contact us Economics for Business Notes About EY ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
Definitions
Newcastle Newcastle upon Tyne LA Hart LA Combined Authority Birmingham LA
Liverpool Liverpool LA Rushmoor LA Coventry LA
Manchester Manchester LA Cherwell LA Dudley LA
Kingston upon Hull Kingston upon Hull UA West Oxfordshire LA Sandwell LA
Leeds Leeds LA Oxford LA Solihull LA
Birmingham Birmingham LA Vale of White Horse LA Walsall LA
Stoke-on-Trent Stoke on Trent UA South Oxfordshire LA Wolverhampton LA
Cambridge Cambridge LA Bristol Bristol LA Greater Manchester Manchester LA
Luton Luton LA Exeter Exeter LA Stockport LA
Reading Reading UA Sheffield City Region Tameside LA
Southampton Southampton UA Combined Authority Barnsley LA Oldham LA
South Coast Bournemouth UA Bassetlaw LA Rochdale LA
Poole UA Bolsover LA Bury LA
Test Valley LA Chesterfield LA Bolton LA
Southampton UA Derbyshire Dales LA Wigan LA
New Forest LA Doncaster LA Salford LA
Eastleigh LA North East Derbyshire LA Trafford LA
Winchester LA Rotherham LA Hartlepool Hartlepool LA
Fareham LA Sheffield LA Stockton-on-Tees Stockton-on-Tees LA
Gosport LA Portsmouth Portsmouth UA Darlington Darlington LA
East Hampshire LA Oxford Oxford LA Durham CC Durham CC LA
Havant LA Liverpool City Region Sunderland Sunderland LA
Combined Authority Halton LA
Portsmouth UA Blackburn
Knowsley LA with Darwen Blackburn with Darwen LA
Isle of Wight UA
Liverpool LA Blackpool Blackpool LA
Thames Valley West Berkshire UA
Sefton LA Lancaster Lancaster LA
Reading UA
St Helens LA Chorley Chorley LA
Windsor and Maidenhead UA
Wirral LA Warrington Warrington LA
Wokingham UA
Milton Keynes Milton Keynes UA Kingston upon Hull,
Slough UA
Sunderland Sunderland LA City of Kingston upon Hull, City of LA
Bracknell Forest UA
West Midlands York York LA
Basingstoke and Deane LA
Contents Introduction Regional performance Contact us Economics for Business Notes About EY ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
Definitions
Sheffield Sheffield LA Redditch Redditch LA
Bradford Bradford LA Wigan Wigan LA
Wakefield Wakefield LA Preston Preston LA
Derby Derby LA Rochdale Rochdale LA
Nottingham Nottingham LA Carlisle Carlisle LA
Leicester Leicester LA Barnsley Barnsley LA
Telford and Wrekin Telford and Wrekin LA Doncaster Doncaster LA
Solihull Solihull LA Harrogate Harrogate LA
Coventry Coventry LA Rotherham Rotherham LA
Dudley Dudley LA Guildford Guildford LA
Sandwell Sandwell LA Winchester Winchester LA
Walsall Walsall LA Taunton Deane Taunton Deane LA
Wolverhampton Wolverhampton LA Stroud Stroud LA
Peterborough Peterborough LA Middlesbrough Middlesbrough LA
Bedford Bedford LA Norwich Norwich LA
Southend-on-Sea Southend-on-Sea LA
Brighton and Hove Brighton and Hove LA
Swindon Swindon LA
Bournemouth Bournemouth LA
Poole Poole LA
Plymouth Plymouth LA
Torbay Torbay LA
Windsor and
Maidenhead Windsor and Maidenhead LA
Slough Slough LA
Basingstoke
and Deane Basingstoke and Deane LA
Boston Boston LA
Mansfield Mansfield LA
Worcester Worcester LA
Lichfield Lichfield LA UA = Unitary Authority
Rugby Rugby LA LA = Local Authority District
Contents Introduction Regional performance Contact us Economics for Business Notes About EY ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
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