The future agriculture of food and Alternative pathways to 2050
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The future
of food and
agriculture
Alternative
pathways to 2050
SUMMARY VERSION
The future
of food and
agriculture
Alternative
pathways to 2050
SUMMARY VERSION
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Rome, 2018
Required citation: FAO. 2018. The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050. Summary version. Rome. 60 pp. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. ISBN 978-92-5-130989-6 © FAO, 2018 Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo). Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited. In any use of this work, there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services. The use of the FAO logo is not permitted. If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license. If a translation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation. The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition. Any mediation relating to disputes arising under the licence shall be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) as at present in force. Third-party materials. Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, such as tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder. The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user. Sales, rights and licensing. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through publications-sales@fao.org. Requests for commercial use should be submitted via: www.fao. org/contact-us/licence-request. Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: copyright@fao.org.
CONTENTS
This booklet summarizes the key messages and findings of the report
The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050.
The figures and graphs are taken from that publication.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 4
ABBREVIATIONS 6
FOREWORD 8
THE FUTURE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE:
THE OVERARCHING CONCERN AND KEY MESSAGES 11
1 Overview 16
2 Alternative scenarios for possible futures 24
3 Managing food demand and changing people’s dietary preferences 30
4 Sustainably addressing the scarcity and reduced quality of land and
water resources 35
5 Addressing poverty and inequality to achieve food security and nutrition goals 42
6 Tackling the nexus between climate change, agricultural sectors
and livelihoods 52
7 Concluding remarks 58ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This report was prepared by the FAO November 2017. Critical contributions
Global Perspectives Studies (GPS) were provided by:
team of the Economic and Social
Development (ES) Department. The Economic and Social Development
GPS team members Lorenzo Giovanni Department (ES):
Bellù, Senior Economist, Team Katherine Baldwin, Carlo Cafiero,
Leader and lead author of the report, Andrea Cattaneo, Filippo Gheri,
Katerina Kavallari, Marc Müller and Günter Hemrich, Holger Matthey,
Lan Huong Nguyen, Economists, and Carlos Mielitz Netto, Salar Tayyib and
Dominik Wisser, Natural Resources Francesco Tubiello.
Specialist, wrote the report after
carrying out the design of the study Agriculture and Consumer Protection
and related modelling, gathering Department (AG):
data and information, and analysing Teodardo Calles, Alessandra
quantitative and qualitative findings. Falcucci, Hilde Kruse, Anne Mottet,
Carolyn Opio, Timothy Robinson,
The whole process largely benefited Henning Steinfeld, Giuseppe Tempio
from the overall guidance of Kostas and Aimable Uwizeye.
Stamoulis, Assistant Director-General
of the ES Department. The preparation Fisheries and Aquaculture Department (FI):
of the first draft was supervised by Manuel Barange and
Rob Vos, former Director of FAO’s Stefania Vannuccini.
Agricultural Development Economics
Division (ESA) and current Director Climate, Biodiversity, Land and Water
of the Markets, Trade and Institutions Department (CB):
Division at the International Food Gianluca Franceschini,
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Jippe Hoogeveen and Nadia Scialabba.
Marco Vinicio Sánchez Cantillo,
Deputy Director of ESA, supervised the Strategic Programmes (SPs):
finalization of the report and provided Panagiotis Karfakis and Brave Ndisale
important editorial inputs. (SP1), Clayton Campanhola, Jean-Marc
Faurès and Ewald Rametsteiner (SP2),
Significant technical inputs and advice Maya Takagi (SP3), Jamie Morrison
were provided by specialists from (SP4) and Dominique Burgeon (SP5).
different FAO departments during
three preparatory workshops held Office of the Director-General (ODG):
in July and December 2016 and Yasaman Matinroshan.
|4|THE FUTURE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
FAO gratefully acknowledges Raffaella Rucci, Outreach Specialist,
valuable contributions from: coordinated the publication and
communications workflow, while
Linda Arata (Università Cattolica Christopher Emsden, Communications
del Sacro Cuore, Italy), Wolfgang Britz Officer, advised on the preparation
(University of Bonn, Germany), of key messages and Eleonora Boni,
Günther Fischer (International Office Assistant, supported the
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis), preparation of the summary version
Steve Frolking (University of of the report.
New Hampshire, USA), David Hallam
(former Director of the Trade Anna Doria Antonazzo, Office Assistant,
and Markets Division, FAO), provided administrative support.
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
(Purdue University, USA), The Publishing Group of FAO’s Office
Daniele Moro (Università Cattolica for Corporate Communication (OCC)
del Sacro Cuore, Italy) and provided editorial, translation and
Paolo Sckokai (Università Cattolica printing support.
del Sacro Cuore, Italy).
Jim Curtiss, Editorial Advisor,
edited the various versions of the
report. Daniela Verona, Publishing
Expert, prepared the graphics
and the final layout.
|5|ABBREVIATIONS
AfDB African Development Bank
BAU Business as usual scenario
CFS Committee on World Food Security
CO2 Carbon dioxide
CO2eq Carbon dioxide equivalent
COP21 Twenty-first Conference of the Parties of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (Paris, 2015)
EAP East Asia and the Pacific
ECA Europe and Central Asia
ENVISAGE Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General
Equilibrium model
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FDI Foreign direct investment
GAEZ Global Agro-Ecological Zones (FAO-IIASA)
GAPS Global Agriculture Perspectives System (FAO)
GHG Greenhouse gasses
GLEAM Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (FAO)
GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project
GtCO2eq Gigatonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
HIC High-income countries
IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development
IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute
IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Kcal Kilocalories
LAC Latin America and the Caribbean
LMIC Low- and middle-income countries
NNA Near East and North Africa
|6|THE FUTURE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
ODA Official development assistance
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PoU Prevalence of Undernourishment
RCP Representative Concentration Pathway
SAS South Asia
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
SSP Shared Socio-economic Pathways
SSS Stratified societies scenario
TSS Towards sustainability scenario
UN United Nations
UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund
USD United States dollar
WFP World Food Programme
WHO World Health Organization
WRI World Resources Institute
|7|FOREWORD
T
he last century has seen from vital goods and services. FAO’s
great socio-economic most recent estimates indicate that
progress and significant 821 million people, approximately
welfare improvements one out of every nine people in the
worldwide. However, world, were undernourished in 2017.
a world of “freedom Worse still, after a prolonged
from fear and want”, as envisioned decline, both the absolute number
by the founders of the United of undernourished people and the
Nations, has yet to be achieved. prevalence of undernourishment
(PoU) have started increasing again,
Much also remains to be done signalling a possible reversal of trends.
to fulfil FAO’s vision of creating At the same time, food insecurity is
“a world free from hunger and contributing to undernutrition, as well
malnutrition, where food and as overweight and obesity, and high
agriculture contribute to improving rates of these forms of malnutrition
the living standards of all, especially coexist in many countries.
the poorest, in an economically,
socially and environmentally Agriculture, including fisheries and
sustainable manner”. forestry, is far from being sustainable
Progress towards eliminating hunger Much of humanity’s progress has
and malnutrition is still insufficient to come at considerable cost to the
meet the goals of the 2030 Agenda for environment. To produce more food
Sustainable Development and other non-food agricultural
goods, a combination of intensified
Addressing the challenges of hunger, agricultural production processes and
food insecurity and malnutrition in the clearing of forests has led to the
all its forms features prominently in degradation of natural resources and
the targets of the second Sustainable is contributing to climate change.
Development Goal (SDG) of the 2030
Agenda for Sustainable Development. Should we continue to address
However, despite great progress towards these challenges with a “business
increasing income and wealth globally, as usual” approach, the future will
billions of people still face pervasive not look promising. Sustainable food
poverty, hunger and malnutrition, and agricultural systems cannot
and various dimensions of inequality, be achieved without significant
joblessness, disease and deprivation additional efforts.
|8|THE FUTURE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
Still, options to face these challenges the future of food and agriculture.
are available On the basis of these findings,
the report highlights possible
Options to face these challenges strategic options to guide food
exist, but they need to be considered and agricultural systems along a
carefully. Food and agriculture more socially, environmentally and
systems may follow alternative economically sustainable path.
pathways, depending on the evolution
of a variety of factors such as This report shows convincingly,
population growth, dietary choices, on the basis of quantitative evidence,
technological progress, income that we can achieve more with less,
distribution, the state and use of and produce safe and nutritious food
natural resources, climatic changes for all, while containing the expansion
and efforts to prevent and resolve of agricultural sectors and hence limit
conflicts. These pathways can and the use of natural resources.
will be impacted by strategic choices
and policy decisions. Swift and The purpose of this publication is to
purposeful actions are needed to bridge a knowledge gap regarding
ensure the sustainability of food the future of food and agriculture at
and agriculture systems in the long a time when countries, international
run. The future is uncertain, but to organizations, civil society and
act now, we need a good sense of academia are increasingly requesting
what the world may look like under an authoritative foresight exercise in
potentially different pathways. this domain. This work catalyses a
wealth of multidisciplinary expertise
This report explores different future and draws on many different data
pathways for food and agriculture sources, from both inside and outside
systems through three distinct FAO. In rigorous but accessible
scenarios characterized by the language, the report sheds light on
way the key challenges to food our responsibilities in shaping our
security, nutrition and sustainability common future.
are dealt with: boldly, partially or
not at all. It improves our ex ante Decision makers, the international
understanding of alternative future community, academia and civil society
long-term trends, both globally are invited to give this report due
and at the regional level, of key consideration, not as the end point of
variables and indicators affecting an analytical endeavor, but rather as
|9|FOREWORD the starting point for a dialogue on strategic policy choices and processes aimed at shaping sustainable development patterns at country, regional and global levels. Kostas Stamoulis Assistant Director-General Economic and Social Development Department Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | 10 |
T H E F U T U R E O F F O O D A N D A G R I C U LT U R E
The future of food
and agriculture:
the overarching concern
and key messages
| 11 |The future of food and agriculture:
the overarching concern and key messages
The future of food and agriculture1 sustainability of food and agricultural
faces uncertainties that give rise systems. The analysis is quantitative
to serious questions and concerns in nature, given the need to
regarding its performance and substantiate the possible scenarios
sustainability. Uncertainties revolve with quantitative long-term projections
around different factors, including of food and agriculture. At the
population growth, dietary choices, same time, the interpretation of the
technological progress, income quantitative findings relies on extensive
distribution, the state of natural qualitative analysis.
resources, climate change, the
sustainability of peace, etc. Nobody The analysis of the alternative
knows with precision how these scenarios detailed in this report
factors will evolve over time; however, addresses fundamental questions
they are certain to shape the future. regarding the future of food
For this reason, countries, international and agriculture; it supports the
organizations, civil society and identification of strategic orientations
academia are increasingly requesting that nurture national, regional and
an authoritative foresight exercise global dialogues and policymaking
that outlines alternative scenarios and processes, and helps shape
highlights potential pathways for food key messages to guide food and
and agricultural systems. agricultural systems along
sustainable pathways.
This publication bridges the knowledge
gap regarding the future of food and
agriculture. It does not provide a
detailed list of specific policy measures
to achieve an ideal future, which is
beyond the scope of a global long-
term foresight exercise. Rather, this
report highlights global challenges
for the future of food and agricultural
systems, and discusses how tackling
these challenges − or leaving
them unaddressed − will affect the
In this report, “agriculture” comprises all agricultural
1
sectors, including crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry.
| 12 |THE FUTURE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
WILL GLOBAL FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS BE ABLE TO
FEED HUMANITY SUSTAINABLY AND SATISFACTORILY
IN THE FUTURE, WHILE ALSO ACCOMMODATING ADDITIONAL
NON-FOOD AGRICULTURAL DEMAND?
KEY MESSAGES
Food and agricultural systems are However, fully meeting Sustainable
affected by trends that could jeopardize Development Goals (SDGs) targets,
their future sustainability. Population as envisaged by the 2030 Agenda for
and income growth drive the demand Sustainable Development, will require
for food and bring about changes in additional efforts to address growing
people’s dietary preferences. Persistent inequalities and gender imbalances,
poverty, inequality and unemployment sustain peace, reduce GHG emissions,
constrain access to food and hamper avoid resource depleting farming
the achievement of food security and systems, manage the demand for
nutrition goals. Agricultural production resource-intensive animal food
is limited by the increasing scarcity and products, and reduce food loss and
diminishing quality of land and water waste, among other challenges.
resources, as well as by insufficient
investment in sustainable agriculture. A more sustainable future is attainable,
Climate change is increasingly affecting but getting there will not be easy.
yields and rural livelihoods, while To move away from “business as
agriculture continues to emit large usual”, all societies will be required
amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs). to renew the assets used to produce
goods and services, or capital stock,
Changing course is critical – “business develop new solutions, and implement
as usual” is no longer an option. innovative technologies. In the spirit
If food and agricultural systems of solidarity enshrined in the SDGs,
remain on their current path, countries and social groups that can
the evidence points to a future reasonably shoulder the costs involved
characterized by persistent food in the necessary transformations have
insecurity and unsustainable to provide support to those already
economic growth. Many countries affected by the negative effects of
and regions are already committed unsustainable development, and help
to increasing the sustainability of them prepare a better future for the
their food and agriculture systems. next generations.
| 13 |The future of food and agriculture: the overarching concern and key messages All countries must commit to … but producing more will be responsibility-sharing in implementing unavoidable, and the way forward is fundamental changes. doing so with less. The global transformative process Those working in food and agriculture required to improve the sustainability must learn how to satisfy a growing of food and agriculture transcends demand under more significant the divide between “developed” and resource constraints by improving “developing” countries. All countries land and water use, reducing GHG will be affected in this process, emissions, increasing efficiency in as “fundamental changes in the way energy production and consumption, societies consume and produce are and restoring soils and forests. indispensable for achieving global These are just some of the variety of sustainable development” (Rio+20. strategic options to consider in search The future we want). of sustainability. Raising consumer awareness will help While moving towards sustainability, contain the need to unnecessarily food prices might increase expand food production and reduce the significantly … “triple burden” of malnutrition … If the entire range of production Agricultural production is expected and consumption costs is taken into to rise worldwide in response to account, including resource population growth, dietary changes and degradation and GHG emissions, increased incomes. Raising consumer evidence indicates that food prices awareness about environmentally are likely to increase significantly. sustainable and healthier diets, Such increases could lead to a more reducing food waste, pricing food to careful use of both natural resources reflect the negative externalities of and of food itself. its production, and limiting the use of grains for biofuel production will … yet environmental sustainability and all be critical to curb the demand for food security can still go hand in hand. agricultural products. These actions While moving food and agricultural will also be critical to reduce the systems towards sustainability may “triple burden” of malnutrition that drive up food prices and restrain global is, undernourishment, micronutrient agricultural output, the per capita deficiencies, and overweight and food availability and access to food obesity, that often exist within a single in low- and middle-income countries country or even community. can improve substantially if a more | 14 |
THE FUTURE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
equitable distribution of income within Food and agricultural sectors are key,
and across countries is pursued. but are no longer enough on their own
to ensure equitable access to food.
A more equitable income distribution Crops, livestock, fisheries and
is a must … forestry continue to be important for
Ensuring a more equitable distribution employment and income generation
of income within and across countries in low- and middle-income countries.
is indispensable in the quest for food However, these sectors alone no
security, better nutrition and the longer provide enough jobs or
environmental sustainability of food income-earning opportunities.
systems. Among the strategic options On the one hand, agriculture and
to achieve this goal are: promoting family farming in particular, must
sustainable technologies; facilitating the be more firmly linked to the broader
access to markets for family farmers; rural and urban economy. This can be
building stronger institutions to ensure done by developing agro-industries
competitive, transparent and fair and setting up infrastructure to
markets for agricultural inputs and connect rural areas, small cities
outputs; implementing effective social and towns. On the other hand,
protection schemes and equitable strong institutions supported by
fiscal systems; and reducing illicit efficient fiscal systems, are needed
financial flows that drain resources to ensure economy-wide income-
from low-income countries. earning opportunities, effective social
protection, and competitive and
… and requires strengthening access to equitable domestic and international
assets for vulnerable groups. markets for inputs and outputs.
Secure and equitable access to assets All these aspects are critical to
such as land, water, capital and improve the efficiency and equity
credit will, together with improved of economic systems and facilitate
information and enhanced skills and their structural transformation.
know-how, significantly improve In addition, interventions to reduce
the earning potential of the poorer GHG emissions in agriculture will
segments of society. This is true for not pay off significantly if efforts to
both people who will remain engaged boost energy-use efficiency are not
in agricultural activities and for those simultaneously undertaken on an
who will move out of agriculture to economy-wide basis.
engage in other productive sectors.
| 15 |Alternative
pathways to 2050
1. OVERVIEW the share of cereals has diminished.
This has prompted concerns about
the sustainability of diets, as well
The future of food and agriculture – as about their health implications,
Alternative pathways to 2050 provides particularly – but not exclusively –
a forward-looking perspective on the in high-income countries (HIC) where
development of global and regional both adult and child obesity show a
food and agricultural systems. dramatic increasing trend (Figure 1.6).2
This development, and its related At the same time, the incidence of
challenges, will depend on underlying diet-related non-communicable
long-run trends in supply and demand, diseases is on the rise (GBD 2015 Risk
which will continue to shape global Factors Collaborators, 2016; GBD 2016
food and agriculture. DALYs and HALE Collaborators, 2017).3
The overarching concern regarding Persistent poverty, inequality and
the future of food and agriculture unemployment constrain the access to
is whether global systems will be food and hamper the achievement of
able to sustainably feed humanity food security and nutrition goals.
up to 2050 and beyond, while at The unequal distribution of income
the same time accommodating the and access to assets, persistent
demand for non-food agricultural extreme poverty and the lack of
commodities. This concern arises earning opportunities for hundreds
because current trends are calling of millions of people cause food
into question the economic, social insecurity to persist. While much
and environmental sustainability of progress was made over the past
food and agricultural systems. years to reduce hunger, more than
821 million people are still chronically
Increased population, income and hungry, and the evidence points to
urbanization, all drive up the persistent undernourishment in the
demand for food and change people’s future (Figure 1.7). More than two
dietary preferences towards more billion people suffer from various
resource-intensive animal products forms of micronutrient deficiencies.
and processed food. For example, more than 600 million
The global demand for food and non- women of reproductive age still suffer
food agricultural products continues from anaemia, which is often caused
to grow, reflecting dietary changes, by iron deficiency, while several
driven by population growth, a rise in
income and increased urbanization.
2
The numbering of the figures in this summary version
retains that of the main publication, although it is not
For example, the share of meat and consecutive since not all the figures are used here.
dairy products in people’s diets has Please refer to the report – of which this is the
3
increased with economic growth, while summary – for reference entries.
| 16 |T H E F U T U R E O F F O O D A N D A G R I C U LT U R E
FIGURE 1.6 PREVALENCE OF OBESITY AMONG CHILDREN AND ADULTS BY REGION
Children and adolescents Adults
12
20
Percent
Percent
8
10
4
0 0
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
World High-income countries Upper-middle countries Lower-middle countries Low-income countries
Note: Regions are arranged into income groups as defined in WHO Global Health Observatory data (WHO, 2018). Children and adolescents are those
between 5 and 18 years of age, adults are those aged 18 and above.
Source: WHO. 2018. Overweight and obesity. In: WHO Global Health Observatory data, overweight and obesity [online]. Geneva, Switzerland.
www.who.int/gho/ncd/risk_factors/overweight
FIGURE 1.7 UNDERNOURISHMENT UNDER A BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO, 2005–2030
1 000
800
600
Million people
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
400
Latin America and Caribbean
Near East and North Africa
200
East Asia and Pacific
High-income countries
0
2005–2007 2014–2016 2030
Source: FAO. 2017a. The future of food and agriculture - Trends and challenges. Rome. For the periods 2005–2007 and 2014–16 data are based on
FAO, IFAD and WFP. 2015a. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2015. Meeting the 2015 international hunger targets: taking stock of uneven progress.
Rome, FAO; for year 2030 data are based on FAO, IFAD and WFP. 2015b. Achieving Zero Hunger. The critical role of investment in social protection and
agriculture. Rome.
| 17 |Alternative
pathways to 2050
hundred thousands of children go blind induced negative impacts on human
every year due to vitamin A deficiency. welfare are no longer limited to
specific regions.4
Persisting inequalities other than
those relating to income – including Agricultural production is constrained
access to resources such as land by the increased scarcity and diminished
and water, or to the benefits that quality of land and water resources.
high-value resources such as oil and What can be produced and whether
minerals generate – not only force growing and changing food
people to live in an unfair world,
but also trigger conflicts that in turn 4
Rather, such impacts have become a global issue with
can exacerbate extreme poverty and the displacement of people and migration, such as in the
food insecurity. Indeed, the marked case of the ongoing civil war in the Syrian Arab Republic.
Conflicts, violence and natural disasters are among
surge in the number of global conflicts the root causes of migration and forced displacement.
observed during the last decade is a However, many migrants are forced to move because of
major driver of food insecurity and socio-economic factors including poverty, food insecurity,
a lack of employment opportunities, limited access to social
malnutrition (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, protection, natural resource depletion, and the adverse
WFP and WHO, 2017) and conflict- impacts of environmental degradation and climate change.
FIGURE 1.11 FRESHWATER WITHDRAWALS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL RENEWABLE
WATER RESOURCES
Water Stress Index
Low Low to moderate Medium to high High Extremely high
(< 10%) (10-20%) (20-40%) (60-80%) (> 80%)
Note: Countries are considered water-stressed if they withdraw more than 25 percent of their renewable freshwater resources. The countries
approach physical water scarcity when more than 60 percent of their water is withdrawn, and face severe physical water scarcity when more than
75 percent is withdrawn.
Source: FAO Global Perspectives Studies, based on FAO AQUASTAT (various years).
| 18 |T H E F U T U R E O F F O O D A N D A G R I C U LT U R E
requirements can be met will Unaddressed climate change is
depend on the availability and increasingly affecting yields and rural
productivity of resources, and livelihoods, while food and agricultural
notably of land and water. These systems, as well as the economy at large,
resources are already under pressure continues to emit GHGs.
(Figure 1.11), and although technical Climate change manifesting itself in
progress has raised productivity, the form of extreme weather events
evidence suggests that productivity already negatively affects yields in
growth, or at least growth in crop crop production, livestock rearing
yields, is slowing. Moreover, food and fisheries, particularly in low- and
loss and waste put unnecessary middle-income countries (LMIC).
pressure on land, water and energy This adds pressure on natural resources
resources along the food value and shifts the distribution of what can
chain; addressing this will improve be produced and where. The fact that
environmental sustainability GHGs from human activities are the
throughout the food system. most significant driver of climate change
observed since the mid-20th century
Unless supported by adequate is problematic. Food and agricultural
investments, technical changes in systems are among the major
food and agricultural systems will contributors to GHG emissions, and are
not lead to sustainable productivity therefore crucial to efforts towards the
improvements. mitigation of climate change. Changes
Questions arise as to whether the future in agricultural production systems
demand for agricultural products will aimed at climate change mitigation
be compatible with the urgent need and adaptation would be expected to
for greater sustainability in resource reverberate positively throughout food
use. To meet the increasing demand systems. So far, GHG emissions within
for agricultural products in a more the economy at large have not been
sustainable way, food and agricultural reduced (Figure 1.15). This implies that
systems need more investment, the agriculture sector needs to adapt to
including in research and development, climate change, while climate change
to promote technical change. This is needs to be mitigated.
especially true for regions that currently
lag behind in productivity and are also Understanding the possible pathways
among the most food-insecure, such as towards sustainability in the face
sub-Saharan Africa. However, of these challenges necessitates a
financing for investment is limited long-term foresight exercise with
and priorities need to be identified to alternative scenarios.
achieve productivity improvements that No doubt, the challenges for global
are sustainable in social, environmental food and agricultural systems
and economic terms. discussed above provide grounds
| 19 |Alternative
pathways to 2050
FIGURE 1.15 ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SECTOR, 1990–2014
50
Energy
Fugitive emissions
Other fuel combustion
40
Transportation
Manufacturing/construction
30 Electricity/heat
GtCO2eq
Industrial processes
20
Waste
Bunker fuels
10
Land use and forestry
Agriculture
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Note: “Bunker fuels” refers to emissions from international aviation and maritime transport. “Other fuel combustion” includes biomass combustion, and
stationary and mobile sources. “Fugitive emissions” refers to flaring of gas and emissions from coal mining. “Waste” includes emissions from landfills,
wastewater treatment, human sewage and other waste.
Source: WRI. 2014. Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT): WRI’s Climate Data Explorer. Washington, DC.
for concern and raise questions incremental and multiplicative effects
about how to face them if we want in the medium- to long-run. Together,
to move towards sustainability, or these challenges create an uncertain
what is at stake if we move in the future for food and agriculture.
opposite direction. The challenges
are complex and diverse. While some A long-term foresight analysis is
of them are inherent to food and needed to understand the evolution
agricultural systems and depend of global food and agricultural systems
on the way in which these systems against a background of multiple
are − and will be − organized uncertainties, depending on our ability
(e.g. increasing pressure on land, (or lack thereof) to face the various
water and energy use), others are challenges. The core of this foresight
essentially systemic, impacting exercise is to compare alternative
food and agricultural systems from scenarios in which these challenges
elsewhere (e.g. economy-wide are tackled to different degrees.
unemployment, conflicts, climate This comparison helps understand
change, urbanization and migration). the potential implications of the
Additional complexities arise because strategic options and interventions
inherent and systemic challenges underlying each scenario for food and
may be intertwined, displaying agricultural systems.
| 20 |T H E F U T U R E O F F O O D A N D A G R I C U LT U R E
In a study such as this one, the a host of contingent, short-term
scenarios are not forecasts or events, such as temporary economic
predictions, or even stand-alone downturns, climate extremes, price
projections, but rather possible, spikes or reductions, international
plausible and consistent pathways trade crises, local surges of pests
of what the future might look like and diseases, or temporary social
at some, usually distant, point in unrest and conflicts, among others.
time. Pathways differ depending Naturally, a long-term foresight
on the evolution and interaction of analysis is unable to predict the
the many factors that determine future occurrence of such contingent,
the dynamics and performance of short-term events. Nonetheless,
socio-economic and environmental the holistic analysis does help
systems, such as income growth and identify “weak signals” of changes
distribution, population trends and that are already present in the
demographic changes, technology, current situation. Such changes may
agroecological conditions and natural progressively increase in magnitude
resources, GHG emissions and or frequency in the future, and may
climate change. These factors may potentially lead to significant shifts,
evolve depending on different policies for example in consumer preferences,
and interventions. The objective of technological changes or natural
the foresight exercise is therefore resource use.
not necessarily to obtain the most
precise future estimates of food and This report presents a foresight
agriculture variables, but rather to exercise that builds on the
depict comprehensive and consistent expertise, skills and data of FAO
frameworks that highlight how and its partners, to help inform
certain decisions can influence the decision-making processes.
unfolding of development pathways. The methodology of this report is
different from that of previous FAO
In many instances, a foresight exercises, which provided agricultural
analysis provides a scenario that projections based on a single scenario.
essentially builds on past long-term Building upon the FAO report
trends of the factors that determine The future of food and agriculture –
the dynamics and performance of Trends and challenges (FAO, 2017a),
socio-economic and environmental which highlighted how recent trends
systems. Such a scenario is typically in key variables present challenges
regarded as a “business as usual” for food security and nutrition, the
and often considered as a “baseline” present report explores three different
against which alternative scenarios scenarios based on alternative trends
are compared. Past trends already for key drivers of the future of food
capture the observed impacts of and agriculture, including income
| 21 |Alternative
pathways to 2050
increase and distribution, population This report is the result of a
growth, technical progress in corporate process led by FAO’s
agriculture and climate change. Global Perspectives Studies team that
relied heavily on in-house expertise,
The report provides quantitative and skills and data, but also involved
qualitative analyses of challenges partnerships with external institutions.
facing food and agricultural sectors. It builds upon the experience gained
The quantitative analysis relies on in foresight exercises by colleagues
both economy-wide and sector-specific from FAO and from other international
simulation models. For each scenario institutions including the International
at the regional and global levels, the Fund for Agricultural Development
results of the model-based exercise (IFAD), the Organisation for Economic
provide separate and comparative Co-operation and Development
(across scenarios) analyses of key (OECD), the International Food Policy
variables and indicators, including Research Institute (IFPRI) and the
the share of agriculture in total value European Union, and upon knowledge
added, the supply and demand for and practices developed by the
a set of food and agricultural products, international community to support
long-term price trends, performance the work of the Intergovernmental
in the field of food security and Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to
nutrition, natural resource use, name but a few.6 The report forms part
the net trade positions of various of FAO’s efforts to provide evidence-
regions for selected groups of products, based support to decision-making
and GHG emissions.5 processes. Therefore, it should be
seen as a comprehensive assessment
The analysis of the scenarios of alternative prospects of food and
led to quantitative findings that agricultural sectors that without any
were scrutinized also in light of pretense to be exhaustive, goes well
complementary qualitative analyses. beyond mere model-based projections
The latter were developed on the basis and aims to contribute to the foresight
of existing background studies and work of the international community
other literature in specific domains at the science-policy interface.
including food demand, natural resource
use and GHG emissions, as well as on This report was much needed to
reports by FAO and other organizations bridge a knowledge gap regarding
investigating challenges to food security the long-term future of food and
and nutrition in all its dimensions. agriculture. For the first time, a report
Supplementary material including detailed commodity
5 6
Annex I of the report provides a comparative
balances and other statistical tables is available online at: review of the key foresight exercises that inspired
www.fao.org/3/CA1564EN/CA1564EN.pdf this publication.
| 22 |T H E F U T U R E O F F O O D A N D A G R I C U LT U R E
provides a globally consistent foresight towards “a world in which food is
exercise based on scenarios designed nutritious and accessible for everyone
specifically to investigate challenges for and natural resources are managed
food security and nutrition, while taking in a way that maintain ecosystem
into account the future economy-wide functions to support current as well
context and possible climate change as future human needs” (FAO, 2014).
pathways. In accurate but accessible Hopefully, this publication will be of
language, the report provides solid use to everyone interested in long-term
evidence regarding possible strategic foresight assessments of global food and
options and directions to achieve agricultural systems, including decision-
the SDGs of eradicating hunger, makers and analysts in governments,
improving nutrition and ensuring the international organizations, civil society
sustainability of agriculture. Therefore, organizations, the private sector, and
it helps understand how to move academic and research institutions
| 23 |Alternative
pathways to 2050
2. ALTERNATIVE alternative future from 2012, the base
year, to 2050.7
SCENARIOS
FOR POSSIBLE The first is a “business as usual” (BAU)
scenario mostly characterized by a
FUTURES continuation of past trends and policy
directions. This scenario is designed to
As the future is uncertain, foresight help understand what the world would
exercises usually consist of the look like should outstanding challenges
analysis of selected alternative for food and agricultural systems
scenarios that represent different remain unaddressed. Under the BAU
futures against a range of scenario, the global economy grows
uncertainties. These scenarios are at moderate rates, with significant
generated in various ways, for disparities across regions (represented
example by giving prominence to by the yellow lines in Figure 3.3).
historical trends; by assuming that Moreover, significant inequalities
existing challenges are tackled to persist within societies in terms of
different degrees, while adding income, earning opportunities and
expert judgement to form plausible access to basic goods and services.
narratives; or by emphasizing and Consumers in HIC maintain their
magnifying one or more “weak preferences for resource-intensive
signals” of change that are already food, including animal products.
detected in the current situation. In LMIC, the relatively limited income
expansion does not favour a transition
While consensus about plausibility towards healthier diets, despite some
may be an important element convergence towards the caloric
to take into consideration when consumption levels of HIC.
designing scenarios, a much more
important feature to consider is Limited investments are undertaken
their internal consistency. Indeed, to increase the sustainability of food
cause−effect nexuses must be and agricultural systems, as well as
carefully designed based on existent
evidence-based knowledge, and 7
The scenarios were developed using a modelling
due consideration must be given framework. Two economic models provided the relevant
to the interdependence among the projections for the scenarios: the FAO Global Agriculture
different elements of a scenario. Perspectives System (GAPS), a partial equilibrium model,
and the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied
General Equilibrium (ENVISAGE) model. These two models
Based on those principles, three were used because each of them produces complementary
scenarios were designed for the information. Together, the models provide a consistent
framework for the construction of scenario simulations by
foresight exercise at the centre of this ensuring that certain physical and economic balances are
report. Each scenario delineates an maintained, and theoretical requirements are met.
| 24 |T H E F U T U R E O F F O O D A N D A G R I C U LT U R E
of other sectors of the economy, such climate change mitigation than under
as the energy sector. GHG emissions the BAU scenario.
therefore keep rising, and climate
change is only partially mitigated. The third scenario is called the
“stratified societies” scenario (SSS).
The second scenario is called “towards It describes a future of exacerbated
sustainability” (TSS). It is designed inequalities in terms of income,
to help understand which proactive earning opportunities and access to
changes are needed to build more essential goods and services across
sustainable food and agricultural countries and layers of societies.
systems. Under this scenario, the global Under this bleaker scenario, the
economy grows at moderate rates, global economy grows at faster rates
as under the BAU scenario. However, than under the other two scenarios.
income, earning opportunities and However, selected regions – and
access to basic goods and services particularly sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
are more equitably distributed across – do not benefit significantly from this
countries and layers of societies faster growth (red lines in Figure 3.3).
thanks to proactive policies that are Income, earning opportunities and
implemented as soon as possible, access to goods and services are
with improved governance and increasingly skewed to the advantage
stronger national and international of elites, leaving large pockets of
institutions (green lines in Figure 3.3). marginalized people. Consumption
Diets in HIC shift towards a higher preferences tilt towards more animal
intake of fruits and vegetables and products everywhere, while food
a lower intake of animal products waste increases, particularly in HIC.
due to a rising consumer awareness Limited or no investments are made to
regarding sustainability issues, increase the sustainability of food and
while income growth in LMIC favours agricultural systems or of other sectors
more balanced diets than in BAU. of the economy, particularly in low-
Not only do consumers adopt more income countries. As a consequence,
sustainable diets; they also take the depletion and inefficient use of
action to reduce waste. Significant natural resources increases, as does
investments are undertaken to increase food loss at all levels of the food
the environmental sustainability of value chain. GHG emissions also
food and agricultural systems, as well rise, leading to exacerbated climate
as of other sectors of the economy. change with severe impacts on human
This leads to an increased efficiency activities and the environment.
in the use of natural resources and
reductions in post-harvest losses. Demographic trends have a great
GHG emissions are progressively impact upon the results of
reduced to help realize stronger scenario-based foresight analysis.
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pathways to 2050
FIGURE 3.3 PER CAPITA GROSS DOMESTIC AND WORLD PRODUCT: HISTORICAL TRENDS AND
PROJECTIONS (2012 EXCHANGE RATES)
Low- and middle-income
World High-income countries countries (excluding China)
80
60
Thousand USD
40
20
0
1970 1990 2012 2030 2050 1970 1990 2012 2030 2050 1970 1990 2012 2030 2050
East Asia and the Pacific
China East Asia and the Pacific (excluding China)
40
30
Thousand USD
20
10
0
1970 1990 2012 2030 2050 1970 1990 2012 2030 2050 1970 1990 2012 2030 2050
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Latin America and the Caribbean
25
20
Thousand USD
15
10
5
0
1970 1990 2012 2030 2050 1970 1990 2012 2030 2050 1970 1990 2012 2030 2050
Near East and North Africa Europe and Central Asia
30
Historical
Business as usual
Thousand USD
20
10 Towards sustainability
Stratified societies
0
1970 1990 2012 2030 2050 1970 1990 2012 2030 2050
Notes: Country grouping is based on the World Bank Country Groups of July 2016, downloaded on 2 August 2016 from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/
site-content/CLASS.xls as specified in Annex III, Table A 3.4 of the report. High-income countries (HIC) are classified in a single group, regardless of their geographical
location. All other countries, qualified as low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), are classified by geographical region, notably Europe and Central Asia (ECA),
East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), South Asia (SAS), Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), Near East and North Africa (NNA) and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). If not otherwise
specified, LMIC and EAP include China (mainland only). Country groups and China are hereafter generally referred to as “regions”.
Sources: FAO Global Perspectives Studies, based on data from the United Nations System of National Accounts (UN, 2016) for the 1990–2012 period; and the Shared
Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) database version 1.1, OECD projections of gross domestic product (SSP database, 2016) for the 2013–2050 period.
| 26 |T H E F U T U R E O F F O O D A N D A G R I C U LT U R E
FIGURE 1.2 GLOBAL POPULATION BY REGION: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED, 1950–2100
World High-income countries Europe and Central Asia
16 2 1
12 1.5 0.75
Billion people
Billion people
Billion people
8 1 0.5
4 0.5 0.25
0 0 0
1950 2015 2050 2100 1950 2015 2050 2100 1950 2015 2050 2100
China East Asia and Pacific (excluding China) South Asia
2 2 4
1.5 1.5 3
Billion people
Billion people
Billion people
1 1 2
0.5 0.5 1
0 0 0
1950 2015 2050 2100 1950 2015 2050 2100 1950 2015 2050 2100
Latin America and Caribbean Near East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
1 1 6
0.75 0.75 4.5
Billion people
Billion people
Billion people
0.5 0.5 3
0.25 0.25 1.5
0 0 0
1950 2015 2050 2100 1950 2015 2050 2100 1950 2015 2050 2100
Historical
High variant
Medium variant
Low variant
Note: This report uses the 2015
revision instead of the more recent
2017 one, which was not yet available
at the time of the running of the scenario
simulations. No significant differences in
the results of the scenario analysis are to
be expected.
Source: United Nations. 2015. World Population
Prospects: The 2015 Revision. Department of
Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
New York, USA.
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pathways to 2050
The demographic projections used in the international community, civil
this report place the world population society organizations, associations,
at almost 10 billion people in 2050, consumers and producers take
with significant regional disparities in strategic decisions and adopt policies
growth patterns (Figure 1.2). These and/or behaviours that amplify − or
projections also indicate increasing mitigate − these challenges. Under the
proportions of the population residing TSS scenario, for example, challenges
in urban areas (Figure 1.3). to food security, nutrition and the
sustainability of agricultural systems
The different food requirements of at large are less severe than under the
young and old people, as well as the other two scenarios because specific
different consumption patterns of urban strategic directions are followed, and
and rural populations, are going to affect policy measures are undertaken to
the demand for and quality of various address them (Figure 2.3).
food items and minimum dietary energy
requirements, which are linked to job The three scenarios thus help
type and living environment. Therefore, address the overarching concern
population dynamics will critically regarding the future of food and
determine food demand as well as agricultural systems: will these
labour supply in the future. systems be able, by 2050, to provide
nutritious diets in a sustainable
All three scenarios share the same manner to almost 10 billion people
population projections to facilitate who increasingly require resource-
cross-scenario comparisons and intensive food, while at the same
emphasize the interplay between time accommodating the demand for
economic growth, equality and the non-food agricultural commodities?
availability of natural resources.
Nonetheless, given all the other key This overarching concern raises
differences that defined each scenario, some further questions, namely:
including trends and strategic what can be done to manage food
socio-economic and environmental demand and change people’s dietary
directions, as explained the three preferences? How can society
scenarios display different degrees sustainably address the reduced
of challenges for food availability, availability and quality of land and
access, stability and utilization, as water resources, particularly in
well as for achieving nutrition targets regions where those resources are
and the overall sustainability of food increasingly stressed? Will poverty,
and agricultural systems. Indeed, the inequality and unemployment
magnitude of the challenges for food continue to constrain food access
security and nutrition is different for and hamper the achievement of food
each scenario because governments, security and nutrition goals?
| 28 |T H E F U T U R E O F F O O D A N D A G R I C U LT U R E
How will climate change affect The analysis of the findings from the
agricultural sectors and rural foresight exercise sheds some light on
livelihoods, and can the agricultural these questions and provides strategic
sectors reduce the GHGs they emit? options for decision-making by
relevant actors and institutions.
FIGURE 1.3 GLOBAL URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
10
8
6
Billion people
4
2 Rural
Urban
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Note: Projected figures from 2015 onward refer to the medium variant scenario.
Source: United Nations. 2015. World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. New York, USA.
FIGURE 2.3 CHALLENGES TO FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS AND KEY SCENARIO DRIVERS
Income – food distribution, poverty, opportunities, …
Challenges for food access and utilization
SSS
Stratified societies
BAU
Business as usual
Climate change, technical progress, trade …
TSS
Towards sustainability ... strategies and policies
Challenges for food availability and stability
Source: FAO Global Perspectives Studies.
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pathways to 2050
3. MANAGING FOOD DEMAND AND
CHANGING PEOPLE’S DIETARY PREFERENCES
What can be done to manage food demand and change
people’s dietary preferences?
KEY MESSAGES
1. Managing consumer demand through awareness raising and proper
regulations can help contain the expansion of agricultural sectors. Food and
non-food agricultural production is expected to rise because of population and income growth.
However, the expansion of agricultural sectors can be significantly contained by, for instance,
rasing consumer awareness on environmentally sustainable diets, regulating and discouraging
food waste, enforcing more efficient food pricing and limiting the use of biofuels.
2. Demand management through consumer awareness and education is also
essential to reduce the “triple burden” of malnutrition. Consumer awareness and
education regarding the nutritional content of food and diet-related diseases are also critical to
reduce the “triple burden” of malnutrition that is, undernourishment, micronutrient deficiencies,
and overweight and obesity, that often exist within a single country or even community, and to
achieve a shift towards generally healthier diets.
3. Food prices should be “right”. Food prices should reflect the inherent nutritional value of
food as well as the full range of costs associated with their production and consumption along
the entire food value chain. This includes environmental costs such as biodiversity loss, land
degradation, water depletion, GHG emissions, which are often not accounted for. This can help
limit the growth of food demand and reduce food losses and waste, while contributing to the
preservation of natural resources and the improvement of nutrition.8 However, as higher food
prices may hamper poor people’s ability to buy food, targeted and efficient strategies are needed to
raise their purchasing power.9
4. Dietary patterns of high-income countries need balancing. While moving towards
sustainable food systems, neither restrained expansion of production nor increased food prices
would substantially impinge on global food availability – including in low- and middle-income
countries – if high-income countries were to consume less animal products, and food waste and
loss were considerably reduced. Raising consumer awareness on this issue could be key. Balanced
diets are critical for reducing all types of malnutrition, including undernourishment but also
overweight and obesity, often causing non-communicable diseases.
8
Economists have traditionally regarded unpaid environmental costs as “environmental externalities”, which lead to a
suboptimal economy-wide outcome. Achieving optimal results in the presence of externalities implies making sure that
economic agents pay the correct price for their actions (Varian, 1992).
9
Legitimate concerns regarding the purchasing power of poor people, as well as possible strategies to increase it,
are addressed in the following section..
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