The future of micromobility: ridership and revenue after a crisis - UNECE
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The future of micromobility: ridership and revenue after a crisis UNECE Workshop on Sustainable Mobility and the Danube region CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited
Agenda McKinsey Center for Future Mobility (MCFM)
COVID-19 Consumer Survey: deep-dive micromobility
Micromobility in the next normal: investments and business case
Appendix
McKinsey & Company 2
The McKinsey Center for Future Mobility is the ideal partner for
successfully navigating the mobility revolution
Leading future Integrated, cross- Unparalleled in- Network of world Proprietary research
mobility consultancy industry perspective depth expertise class thought leaders & knowledge assets
350+ 360° 50+ ~30 ~90
projects worldwide every perspective on mobility, dedicated McKinsey external advisors: Former publications in the last
year using state-of-the-art covering all industries partners worldwide CxOs, public sector 3 years, based on
concepts, covering all dis- and institutions in the leaders and tech experts proprietary research
ruptive trends (e.g., auto- mobility ecosystem
nomous driving, electric
vehicles, shared and
(e.g., advanced indus-
tries, electric power, oil
200k 20+ M3
urban mobility, connec- & gas, logistics, public hours of dedicated strategic private/public
research each year by sector partners (e.g., C40, Mobility Market Model,
tivity), business model sector, travel, insurance)
our MCFM researchers World Economic Forum, informing 100+ client
changes as well as value
and practitioners Clepa, VDA) engagements so far
pool shifts
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility McKinsey & Company 3
Agenda McKinsey Center for Future Mobility (MCFM)
COVID-19 Consumer Survey: deep-dive micromobility
Micromobility in the next normal: investments and business case
Appendix
McKinsey & Company 4Scope of global COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Survey
Markets Respondents
4
1k+
EU markets:
respondents per market, thereof:
UK, DE, FR, IT 1,000 mobility participants1
400 car purchase intenders2
Pulse Survey
Questions
6 Waves conducted
Wave 1: May 9-17 20+ questions on mobility behavior
Wave 2: May 27-29
Wave 3: June 16-18
20+ questions on car purchase intent
Wave 4: July 15-17 10 questions on aftersales behavior
Wave 5: Sept 2-4
Wave 6: Nov 6-10 10 questions on screening, demogra-
phics, COVID-19 impact
1. Demographically representative sample of respondents between age 18-70
2. Consumers having planned or planning to buy/lease a car in the next 12 months
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey McKinsey & Company 5AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Mobility usage patterns in France and Italy most affected
by the second COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10) x Mobility recovery3, in p.p.
Significantly increase
Mobility pattern changes (number and length of trips) since the outbreak of COVID-191 Slightly increase
Number of respondents, in percent Slightly decrease
Significantly decrease
EU 2
3
2 2
2
2 2 2 2
3 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2
1
2
2
Currently 58%
2 2 7 2 7 6 1 1 8 6 1 6 7 2 1 6
3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 3 4 5 5 3 4 5 4 2
2 2 1 3 4 4 of EU
consumers
-18 -19 -20 -21
-22 -25 -27 -29 -29
-22 -24 -26 -27 -29 -29 -29 -28 -25 -26 -25 -27 -29 -29 -29
travelling less,
-30 -31 -32
-36 -37 -36 showing a 7
p.p. decrease
-16 -16
vs. last wave
-16
-22 -27 -23 -19 due to the latest
-26 -30 -24
-28 -39 -26 -33 lockdowns
-36 -53 -50 -33
-53 -45 -48 -1 -35 -23
-60 -50 -29
-40 -34
-66 -53
Respondents
-7 +1 mobility usage
-18
currently
-10 most affected
in France
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 and Italy
1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has your mobility changed since the outbreak of COVID-19?
2. UK, Germany, Italy and France
3. Total mobility decrease wave 6 vs. wave 5
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility McKinsey & Company 6AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Walking/biking and micromobility potentially becoming
more popular in the modal mix of the "next normal"
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Mobility usage Mobility usage Mobility
Usage of transportation modes on a regular basis1,2 during crisis pre- vs. post-crisis
x
decrease, in p.p.
Number of respondents stating at least weekly, in percent
Micromobility Car sharing Ride hailing
Public Walking or biking (e.g., e-scooter, (e.g., (e.g., Uber, Respondents
Private car transport with private bike e-bike) ShareNow) Lyft, taxis) expect an
increased usage
Before crisis 81 35 66 8 7 8 of walking/
-20 -20 -6 -2 -1 -2 biking and
Wave 1 60 15 61 7 5 6 micromobility
when returning
Wave 2 68 17 66 7 5 6
to “normal life”
Wave 3 73 18 67 7 5 5
Slight decrease
Wave 4 78 21 67 7 6 6 in mobility usage
across all major
Wave 5 79 24 67 9 7 7 transportation
-4 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 modes after 2nd
Wave 6 75 22 64 9 7 7 lockdowns in
Return to Europe, but with
81 35 73 10 8 9 less magnitude
"normal life"
than 1st lockdown
1. Q: Before/today/when you return to "next normal", how often did/do you/do you expect to use the following modes of transportation?
2. Once or more than once per week, aggregated results from UK, Germany, Italy and France
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility McKinsey & Company 7AS OF NOVEMBER 12th, 2020
Risk of infection: private car and micromobility considered as safe
for health, infections became a top priority for the mode choice
Results of wave 1 (may 9-18), wave 2 (may 27-29), wave 3 (june 16-18), wave 4 (july 15 – 17), wave 5 (sep 2-4), and wave 6 (nov 6-10)
Modes of transportation considered safe for health, concerning a COVID-19 infection1,2 Top 5 reasons to choose transport mode4
Number of respondents, in percent Reasons ranked by number of respondents
Shared Before the COVID-19 crisis Today
Public Walking/ micro
Private car transport biking3 mobility Car sharing Ride hailing 1. Time to destination 1. Risk of infection
2. Price of trip
81 2. Time to destination
3. Space and privacy
64
3. Space and privacy
4. Convenience
5. Congestion 4. Convenience
5. Price of trip
9 8 5 5
… percent of respondents
What we “Car as safe Public transit People increasingly use active Car sharing usage, as all shared would increase mode usage
observe space”: People ridership has transport modes such as mobility modes, dropped with regular disinfection
during the switch to transport fallen walking & biking significantly 50
pandemic modes with low significantly
risk of infection
1. Q: Which of the following modes of transportation do you consider safe for your health concerning a COVID-19 infection?
2. Aggregated results from US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, China and Japan
3. With private bike
4. For a private trip
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility McKinsey & Company 8Agenda McKinsey Center for Future Mobility (MCFM)
COVID-19 Consumer Survey: deep-dive micromobility
Micromobility in the next normal: investments and business case
Appendix
McKinsey & Company 9After a sharp increase in 2018, investments into shared e-scooter
startups decelerated, also due to COVID-19
Investments into shared e-scooter operators between 2017 – 20201
Annual disclosed investment amount, in USD mn
Number of companies XXX
Insights
Total investments into shared e-
1,133
1,074 scooter companies experienced a
~30 fold increase in 2018 as
compared to 2017, mainly due to
the hype and cash needed for the
mass scale-up of vehicles
With increasing market maturity,
618 providers are rather focusing on
improving their unit economics in
existing markets than tapping into
new ones, leading to a
deceleration of investment
activities after 2018
With COVID-19 and the declines in
ridership and revenues,
33 investments into shared e-
scooter companies dropped
2017 18 19 2020 heavily in 2020
5 21 17 3
1 As of November 2020
Source: McKinsey Growth Analytics – Horizon Scan; CapitalIQ; Pitchbook McKinsey & Company 10Why micromobility has an even more positive business case now -
potential impact on economics in "next normal"
Estimated potential economics per ride of a shared free-floating e-scooter, in percent
Increase of up to 5 p.p.
Profitability assuming no change in pricing
as compared to today
Main City permit fees
Backoffice Cities might incentivize shared
assumptions
Insurance and asset ownership micromobility providers as
Credit card fees alternative offering to increasing
Scooter purchasing
private car usage after Covid-19
price: 300-400 USD Vehicle purchasing
pandemic
Scooter lifetime: >3 Maintenance
months
Utilization: 5 trips per Cost reduction due to accelerated
day with average trip industry consolidation after Covid-19
duration of 15-20 pandemic
minutes
Costs per minute: 0.15- Relocation
0.20 USD
No significant effect expected
Fixed fee per ride: 1
USD
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility; web and press research; expert interviews; expert estimates McKinsey & Company 11Agenda McKinsey Center for Future Mobility (MCFM)
COVID-19 Consumer Survey: deep-dive micromobility
Micromobility in the next normal: investments and business case
Appendix
McKinsey & Company 12Vision for the McKinsey Center
for Future Mobility (MCFM)
The MCFM Solution aims to help
society/individuals, organizations and the
public sector navigate the future of mobility by
providing independent and integrated evidence
about possible future mobility scenarios.
As we move through a second inflection point in
mobility, our perspectives help stakeholders across the
mobility space to
• Make strategic choices under uncertainty
• Accelerate the transition towards sustainable
mobility
• Transform organizations and mobility ecosystems
McKinsey & Company 13The current and future shared mobility space can be segmented
into 10 mobility verticals
Overview of shared mobility verticals
Focus of this document
Micromobility Urban mobility Long-haul mobility
Dynamic shuttle Car sharing
Taxi/ licensed Autonomous services/ pooled (station-based Peer-to-peer Ride Urban aerial
Micromobility driver services E-hailing taxi e-hailing and free-floating) car sharing sharing Car rental mobility
Definition Shared light vehicles Traditional car-based Mostly app-based Autonomous vehicle Mostly app-based Shared vehicles owned Person-to-person Arrangement in Vehicles rented for Flying (electric) taxis to
incl. bicycles, kick chauffeur service with chauffeur service with (SAE level 4 or 5) chauffeur service with by car sharing vehicle lending for which paying limited period of time move people by air
scooters and scooters licensed drivers occasionally either used as non- licensed drivers which companies and shared limited period of time passenger travels in with fixed pickup and within a constrained
with a GVWWe discussed with 60+ companies in talks, breakout sessions, and a
live poll about the Future of Micromobility
Overview of participants
Results of our
live poll in the
following
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility McKinsey & Company 15~90% of participating experts believe in a full recovery of
micromobility after COVID-19 while even exceeding pre-crisis level
Results of live poll
Will shared micromobility ridership recover fuIly after
the COVID-19 pandemic? (n=38)
89%
11%
0%
No Yes, it will reach Yes, it will even
pre-crisis level exceed pre-crisis level
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility McKinsey & Company 16Experts say that China is the most promising micromobility market
while the competitive landscape will consolidate in the future
Results of live poll
Which country do you think will be most promising How will the micromobility landscape in 2030 look
micromobility market in the next 10 years? (n=39) like? (n=39)
41%
38%
South Korea
Europe
USA
China
France
15%
Germany
India 5%
Highly Fragmented with Consolidated Highly
fragmented 2-3 different with 5-6 consolidated
with more than operators per dominating with only one or
5 different city operators two dominating
operators per per region operator per
city region
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility McKinsey & Company 17You can also read
