The Dutch grocery sector in 2030 - RETAILes - TALE 1: THE GROCERY STORE OF THE FUTURE - Roland Berger
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RETAILes: The Dutch grocery sector in 2030 1
RETAILes
The Dutch
grocery sector
in 2030
TALE 1: THE GROCERY STORE OF THE FUTURE
2 RETAILes: The Dutch grocery sector in 2030
RETAILes: The Dutch grocery sector in 2030 3
BACKGROUND
Roland Berger and EFMI Business School have recently industry survey in which 150 Dutch executives from
conducted a joint study to gain insight into the future retailers, fresh food companies, brand- and private-la-
of the Dutch grocery sector and understand how the bel manufacturers gave their views on the future of the
industry could transform itself over the next 10 to 15 grocery sector.
years within the context of a rapidly-changing world.
In order to capture accurate insights from within the In a series of tales we aim to give an impression on what
sector, we organized roundtable discussions with CEOs the industry could look like in 2030. Selected focus are-
and senior management of a wide variety of players ac- as include the future of the brick-and-mortar store, the
tive in the food and retail industry – both incumbent impact of digitalization and the social impact of these
companies and innovative newcomers. In addition to developments. In this first tale we discuss the future of
the insights gained from these roundtable discussions, brick-and mortar grocery stores (Figure 1).
EFMI and Roland Berger conducted an in-depth food
In this
In the first
study wetale Roland
propose Berger
to focus and EFMI
on 3 selected areas: Business School will
developments in brick-and-mortar, digitalization and social impact
discuss the future of the brick-and-mortar grocery store
Figure 1: RETAILes: The Dutch grocery sector in 2030 …
…
INTRO BRICK-AND-MORTAR DIGITALIZATION SOCIAL IMPACT
0
Introduction to
1 The grocery store
of the future
3 Online grocery
shopping
5 Sustainable
supply chains
RETAILes: The
Dutch grocery
sector in 2030
2 Innovative in-store
technology
4 E-commerce
models
6 The pursuit
of health
Figure 3: Evolving focus of the 2030 physical groce
How will the grocery store concept look like in 2030? [%
4 RETAILes: The Dutch grocery sector in 2030
KEY TAKEAWAYS OF TALE 1:
THE GROCERY STORE OF THE FUTURE
• P
hysical stores will continue to play an important
role in the future grocery landscape
• T
he market share of hard discounters continued
to increase in 2018 - The discount segment is
expected to further increase in importance in the
next decade
• A
lthough the winning physical store concept(s) is
still to be uncovered, the winning formula will fo-
cus particularly on convenience, experience and/
or fresh assortment
• T
echnology is one of the answers that will help
stores remain cost competitive in the futureRETAILes: The Dutch grocery sector in 2030 5
In the study we propose to focus on 3 selected areas:
developments in brick-and-mortar, digitalization and social impact
Physical stores will continue to The market share of hard discounters
playFigure
an important role
1: RETAILes: The the sector in 2030continued to increase in
ingrocery
Dutch 2018 - The
…
future grocery landscape discount segment is expected to
…
INTRO BRICK-AND-MORTAR
further increase in
DIGITALIZATION
importance in the
SOCIAL IMPACT
The global grocery landscape is rapidly changing.
0
Industry developments such asThe
the
1
grocery
growing
of the future
of online, changing customer preferences and techno-
logicalIntroduction
innovationsto are expected to continue to impact
next
store importance Online
3
decade
grocery Sustainable
shopping
5 supply chains
In the past decade we have seen discounters gain signif-
icant popularity in the food retail landscape. Discount-
RETAILes: The
the traditional grocery store concept.
Dutch grocery ers such as Lidl and Aldi have gained a prominent posi-
Havingsector
a physical
in 2030 presence will remain important in tion in the Dutch retail market. As such, the joint market
2 4 6
the future grocery landscape. Respondents
Innovative in-store to the position of these two discounters
E-commerce The pursuit in The Netherlands
technology
EFMI and Roland Berger in-depth industry survey models
has increased by over 30% of health
over the past decade1. Al-
of 150 food executives believe that in 2030 rough- though the growth rate of hard discounters is not as
ly 80% of the current amount of physical stores will high as it used to be, the combined market share of Aldi
still be operational in the Netherlands (Figure 2). The and Lidl continued to increase in 2018, indicating that
importance of having a physical presence can be the growth of the discount segment is not over and that
illustrated by recent moves of pure online players into the channel is likely to further increase in importance in
the brick-and-mortar segment. Alibaba recently ex- the next decade. Figure 3: Evolving focus of the 2030 physical
panded into the offline grocery world with their new How will the grocery store concept look like in 2030
HEMA grocery store. In the US, Amazon entered the Although the winning physical store – –
brick-and-mortar area with its acquisition of Whole
Foods in 2017. concept(s) is still to be uncovered, Large reduction
in focus
the winning formula will focus
Figure 2: Development of brick-and-mortar particularly on Focus
convenience,
on convenience –
grocery stores in NL (2016-2030) experience and/or
Offeringfresh assortment
fast and high service
solutions to customers
-850 The brick-and-mortar full-service grocery store con-
100% cepts are most likely the breakthrough winners that
82%
no longer restrict themselves to a transactional
Focus on experience – role
but find new ways to Offering
appealato consumers.
true shopping Our survey
shows that three keyexperience
store attributes are expected to
~4,750 ~3,900 become more important going forward (Figure 3).
stores stores
Focus on fresh –
Offering an appealing
2016 2030
fresh assortment
Source: IRI, EFMI and Roland Berger in-depth food industry survey
of 150 Dutch executives (2018)
1 Nielsen (2017) Source: EFMI and Roland Berger in-depth food industry survey of 150 Dutch exec6 6 The pursuit
of health
RETAILes: The Dutch grocery sector in 2030
Figure 3: Evolving focus of the 2030 physical grocery store concept
How will the grocery store concept look like in 2030? [% of respondents]
–– – + ++
Large reduction Reduction in No change in Increase in Large increase
in focus focus focus focus in focus
Focus on convenience –
Offering fast and high service 6% 50% 44%
solutions to customers
Focus on experience –
Offering a true shopping 2% 8% 49% 41%
experience
Focus on fresh –
Offering an appealing 2% 8% 64% 26%
fresh assortment
Source: EFMI and Roland Berger in-depth food industry survey of 150 Dutch executives (2018)
Focus on convenience Carrefour and Tencent introduced Le Marché, a con-
First, the store of the future is expected to be focused cept which offers fast check-out via face recognition. In
on convenience of the customer, through fast and the Netherlands, AH To Go, part of Ahold Delhaize, has
high-quality in-store solutions. A recent development in recently introduced its “tap to go” concept. Customers
this area is the automated store check-out process. In- can use their phone to scan the selected products, after
novative checkout systems can result in saving custom- which their account is automatically debited. Although
ers time on one side and reduce the operational cost the check-out process is not the only change being in-
base on the other side. Already an increasing number troduced, other initiatives that are being launched also
of Dutch grocery stores have self-checkout systems in focus on further enhancing the shopper’s convenience
place. Amazon has pushed developments even further and experience. As such, in Italy, Coop’s supermarket
with its launch of Amazon Go, a cashless convenience of the future provides product information on screens
store that replaces cashiers with tracking technology. with augmented reality. In addition to these technologi-RETAILes: The Dutch grocery sector in 2030 7
cal innovations, store concepts with more focus on con- offering of freshly prepared in-store meals and
venience and speed are on the rise. In the Netherlands, fresh meal kits. In addition, grocery stores are
this can be illustrated by the roll-out of stores under experimenting with innovative fresh-initiatives.
convenience concepts such as AH To Go, Jumbo City, An example is the Kräuter Garten (“herb garden”),
COOP Vandaag and Spar Express. a project between wholesale supermarket Metro
and indoor farming startup Infarm. Using farming
Focus on experience installations, herbs are grown and produced in-store,
Second, the future store concept is likely to transition thereby securing product quality and maximizing
from being merely focused on transactions to providing product freshness.
the customer with a novel experience as well. The gro-
cery store is expected to increasingly become a place
where consumers go for inspiration or as a social activi- Technology is one of the answers
ty. This development will further blur the lines between that will help stores remain cost
food and food service. In the Netherlands, Jumbo has competitive in the future
introduced its Foodmarkt, a concept that combines the
traditional supermarket with foodservice elements such Technological developments can help stores to re-
as a restaurant, coffee corner and pizza-on-the go. In main cost competitive in the future. Developments
China, Alibaba has introduced Hema, a new physical re- in the area of in-store robotics, automated check-out
tail concept where customers can for example hand-se- systems, new payment solutions and other smart
lect their seafood and have it prepared on the spot. In in-store technologies have significant potential in
the US, Raley’s has introduced Market 5-ONE-5, a new reducing the operational cost base in-store and
supermarket concept with focus on fresh products as enhancing the customer experience. In tale 2 we will
well as customer experience. Their stores offer wine by cover the main technological developments that we ex-
the glass, on-site dining and space to socialize with oth- pect to contribute to the development of the traditional
er customers while being inspired by features of local brick-and-mortar grocery store.
artists.
Focus on fresh food and meal solutions
Third, the future grocery store is expected to focus Having a physical presence will
more on fresh food. Fresh products such as fruits,
vegetables, dairy and ready-meals will have a more
remain important in the future grocery
prominent position in the future store, whereas dry landscape – survey results indicate
goods and non-food products will be increasingly sold that in 2030 roughly 80% of the current
through online channels. We expect to see a deep-
er fresh product offering with more in-store product number of brick-and-mortar grocery
processing. Groceries are already expanding their stores will still be in operation8 RETAILes: The Dutch grocery sector in 2030
PUBLISHER
Roland Berger Amsterdam
World Trade Center Amsterdam
Strawinskylaan 581
1077 XX, Amsterdam
The Netherlands
+31 20 796 0600
www.rolandberger.com
EFMI Business School
Groeneveld 2
3744 ML Baarn
The Netherlands
+31 35 303 7777
www.efmi.nl
AUTHORS
Alexander Belderok – Alexander.Belderok@rolandberger.com
Mireille Einwachter – Mireille.Einwachter@rolandberger.com
Marcel van Aalst – MvanAalst@efmi.nl
Joris Winkelman – Joris.Winkelman@rolandberger.com
Rosie Veul – Rosie.Veul@rolandberger.com
DISCLAIMER
This study has been prepared for general guidance only.
The reader should not act on any information provided in
this study without receiving specific professional advice.
Roland Berger and EFMI Business School shall not be liable
for any damages resulting from the use of information
contained in the study.
© 2019
Roland Berger and EFMI Business School
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