The Surprising Resilience of Emerging-Market Consumers - CONSUMER SENTIMENT BAROMETER
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
CONSUMER SENTIMENT BAROMETER The Surprising Resilience of Emerging-Market Consumers
More Than a Year into the Pandemic, Five Key Themes Are Evident Across
Emerging Markets
1 2 3 4 5
Consumer sentiment The prolonged crisis Many of the new The pandemic is A high level of
remains resilient is creating financial behaviors adopted taking an invisible vaccination
despite second and pressures on by consumers during toll as consumers acceptance across
third waves of the consumers across the pandemic are face mental health emerging markets
pandemic emerging markets proving to be sticky pressures and avoid offers a silver lining
medical facilities for for the future
many illnesses
Source: BCG analysis.COVID-19 Cases Are Resurging in Many Emerging Markets as New Virus
Variants Spread
Total cumulative cases (millions)
34 US
32
30 India
28
26
24
22
20
Brazil
18
16
14
12
10
8
6 UK
4 Argentina
Indonesia
2 Philippines
0 Thailand
Singapore
April July October January April July
2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021
Sources: Our World in Data; Johns Hopkins University.
Note: Cumulative cases are as of June 29, 2011.High COVID-19 Positivity Rates and Low Testing Rates Suggest That the
Situation in Some Countries May Be Even Worse Than It Seems
Cumulative tests per 1,000 people1
2,500
High testing, low positivity rate High testing, high positivity rate
UK
2,000
Singapore
1,500
US
Italy
1,000
Russia Low testing, low positivity rate Low testing, high positivity rate
Canada Spain
Chile Germany
500
India Malaysia
Rwanda Uganda South Africa Ethiopia Brazil Colombia
Vietnam Thailand
Japan Kenya Indonesia Peru Phillipines
Mexico
Argentina
0
10 15 20 25 30
COVID-19 positivity rate (%)2
Asia Africa North America Europe South America
Sources: Our World in Data; Johns Hopkins University.
1
Depending on the country, “cumulative tests” refers to total people tested, total samples tested, or total tests done.
2
Data for May and June 2021.Despite the Rising Number of Cases, Consumer Sentiment Remains Resilient and Is
No Worse Than It Was at the Onset of the Pandemic
India Phillipines China
Agreement (%) Cases (thousands) Agreement (%) Cases (thousands) Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)
100 30,000 100 2,000 100 200
75 75 75
15,000 1,000 100
50 50 50
25 0 25 0 25 0
March May August May April May July May March May July May
2020 2020 2020 2021 2020 2020 2020 2021 2020 2020 2020 2021
Brazil Indonesia United States
Agreement (%) Cases (thousands) Agreement (%) Cases (thousands) Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)
100 30,000 100 3,000 100 40,000
75 75 75
15,000 1,500 20,000
50 50 50
25 0 25 0 25 0
March April November June April May July May April July August May
2020 2020 2020 2021 2020 2020 2020 2021 2020 2020 2020 2021
Fear for personal health Fear of recession Cumulative cases in thousands
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research from March 2020 through June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 4,500 respondents per country, depending on population.
Note: Questions asked: “Do you agree with each of the following about coronavirus? a. ‘I’m not going out of the house fearing risk to health/I’m trying to avoid public spaces as much as possible.’ b. ‘There will be an economic
recession due to the coronavirus.’”The Prolonged Nature of the Pandemic Is Hitting Incomes—and Spending—
Across Emerging Markets DEVELOPED
ECONOMY
COMPARISON
Phillipines India Malaysia Brazil Indonesia China Vietnam Singapore
GDP
growth –9.5% –8.0% –5.6% –4.4% –2.1% 2.3% 4.2% –5.4%
in 2020
Change in
household
income –22% –21% –25%
–36% –29%
stated by –40% –37% –40% –37%
–48% –43% –46% –44% –47%
consumers1 –52%
–58%
1% 0%
Change in
household –4% –3% –4% –2% –5%
spending –15%
stated by –21% –20% –25% –25%
consumers1 –28% –28% –30%
–34%
October 2020–March 2021 compared to pre-COVID-19 Today compared to pre-COVID-19
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.
1
Respondents were asked from October 2020 through March 2021, as well as from late May through early June 2021, to indicate how their household income and spending had changed compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak.
The percentages are not based on official GDP change or employment data.Consumers Have Cut Their Spending in Discretionary Categories and Focused
More on Health and Household Care
40
Home construction
Signs of life: categories New consumer priorities: sustained
recovering at different speeds acceleration in growth trajectory
30
May 2021 vs. April 2020 (percentage points)
IMPROVING
Change in consumer spending
20 Cars
Scooters/bikes
Food delivery
10 Alcohol
Household care
Sports equipment
Nonprescription Health supplements
Luxury products Tobacco medications Packaged food
0
Public transport Streaming Mobile Fresh foods
Toys and games services services
Eating Health
DETERIORATING
at restaurants Clothing Personal care insurance Staples
–10 Education
Mobile phones
Cosmetics
–20
Hit hard: recovery likely Temporary blips:
Home
to be drawn out furnishings short-lived acceleration
–30
–45 –40 –35 –30 –25 –20 –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
NEGATIVE POSITIVE
Net change in spending in April 2020 vs. pre-COVID-19 (%)
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.
Note: Values shown are the averages across markets in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Question: “How do you expect your spending to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?”Some New Consumer Behaviors Prompted by the Pandemic Are Sticking
More Than a Year Later
Increase in usage compared to
before the pandemic (%)1
New Shop from online retailers 50
shopping
habits Buy from chat groups 46
Adoption Use digital wallets 51
of digital
tools Subscribe to streaming apps 52
Focus on Buy healthier food 34
personal
health Use nutritional supplements 42
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research, late May through early June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.
1
Respondents were asked to indicate how their frequency of doing various activities had changed after the onset of COVID-19 versus before it.More than Half of Consumers in Emerging Markets Feel That the Pandemic
Is Adversely Affecting Their Mental Health
Respondents who agree that their mental health Respondents who agree that their mental health is
is suffering due to the pandemic, by country (%)1 suffering due to the pandemic, by generation (%)1
DEVELOPED
62 ECONOMY
COMPARISON
54 55
52 51 53
48 AVG 47 AVG
44 43 51 41 51
Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand Vietnam China Singapore Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers
(18–25 years old) (26–40 years old) (41–55 years old) (56 years or older)
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research, late May through early June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.
1
Respondents were asked to what extent they agree with the following statement: "I feel my mental health is suffering due to the pandemic." Agreement = 4 or 5 on a scale of 1 to 5.As Many People Avoid Health Care Facilities, the Pandemic May Be Taking a
Hidden Toll That Will Become Visible over Time
People who have reduced their visits to health Reasons for avoiding health care facilities
care facilities (%)1 (% of respondents)2
DEVELOPED
I am worried about contracting
ECONOMY 78
92 93 COVID-19 at health care facilities
91 89 COMPARISON
85
79 AVG The hospital is too busy 26
76
84
I am healthier than in previous years 23
I wanted to, but could not due to
government restrictions on movement 21
I cannot afford the cost of health
care facilities 12
I cannot afford the cost of transport 6
Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand Vietnam China Singapore
Other 2
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research, late May through early June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.
1
Respondents were asked if they had reduced their visits to health care facilities, such as clinics and hospitals, since the pandemic started compared to previous years.
2
Respondents who said that they had reduced their visits to health care facilities were asked to indicate the major reasons for doing so.The High Level of Vaccine Acceptance, Especially in Countries with the Most
Serious Outbreaks, Is Reason for Long-Term Optimism
DEVELOPED
ECONOMY
Vaccine acceptance by respondents (%)1 COMPARISON
47
69 70 63
87 84 82 83
41
22 25 31
8 4 10 6 16 2 9 5 12 13 4 6
Brazil India Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Singapore
Cases
per 1,000 87 22 23 13 8 4You can also read
