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THE
THE WEEKLY
WEEKLY UPDATE
UPDATE
Free subscriber edition
WEEK 38, 2021
THE NEWSROOM
Twitter accelerates again with Bitcoin Almost a Third of Salvadorans Are China’s Latest Crypto Ban Is Its Most
tips, NFTs, recorded Spaces, creator Using the Bitcoin Wallet, Bukele Severe, Insiders Say
fund and more Says
The Sept. 24 notice bans banks and other financial
The company today introduced a number of new Some 2.1 million people are using the wallet, institutions from offering services related to crypto,
initiatives aimed at better serving the Bukele said in a tweet. That’s more users than any including transactions of fiat to crypto currencies, or
conversations and community using its platform, bank in the country, he said. El Salvador has a from one crypto to another. Anyone facilitating
including support for tipping with crypto, NFT population of about 6.5 million people, according trades is subject to legal prosecution, including
authentication and plans for other experiments the CIA World Factbook. those individuals who live inside China but work for
designed to provide more context about a off-shore crypto exchanges that provide service to
conversation to those just joining in. China.
Sep 28, 2021 2
Yet another volatile week for the biggest coins
Both bitcoin, ether and Binance Coin end the week in red
Bitcoin Correlation:
▪ This week started with the same volatility we saw the previous week. The
prices of the three most significant coins first decreased before climbing in ETH GOLD S&P500
90-day correlation
(weekly change included)
the middle of the week. When China yet again banned crypto on September
24th, the market lost its momentum. As usual in high-volatility periods, bitcoin BTC 0.839 0.012 -0.030 -0.023 0.243 0.062
ends the week as the winner of the top 3 with a decrease of 3.4%, followed Source: CoinMetrics
by Ether at a 5.1% loss, with Binance Coin last at a 9.9% decline.
BTC, ETH, BNB Market Cap: Percentage Change in Price Over the Last Week
▪ The financial markets have been volatile lately. Interestingly, we see that
bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with S&P500 has increased considerably during
this risk-off period. At the same time, bitcoin’s correlation with gold has
decreased. Although bitcoin has many similar characteristics as gold, it still
behaves as a risk-on asset and highly correlates to the stock market during
market turmoil.
▪ The last week’s winner of the top 50 cryptocurrencies is Terra, with gains of
30%. Filecoin is the worst performing asset with a decline of 23%, followed by
OKB, OKEx’s utility token (see slide 9).
BTC -3.4% $41,944
ETH -5.1% $2,919
Best Performing Price Last week Last month YTD
Terra 35.69 30.18% 2.20% 1538%
eCash 0.00026385 26.30% 67.97% 295%
Axie Infinity 68.03 23.60% -7.76% 12262% BNB -9.9% $338
Worst Performing Price Last week Last month YTD
Filecoin 57.74 -22.62% -21.95% 92%
OKB 14.39 -14.61% -29.81% 510%
Internet Computer 42.96 -9.93% -33.83% 27%
Last week of top 50 by market capitalization
Source: CoinGecko, messari.io Source: NYDIG
Sep 28, 2021 3Report: Bitcoin’s energy consumption is insignificant globally
Key Socioeconomic Statistics of Top 10 Crypto-Active Countries
NYDIG recently published a 70-page report that evaluated Bitcoin's vs. Global Average
energy consumption in the context of its role in society. The
report found that Bitcoin's energy consumption is insignificant on a 100
global scale and that its net positive effects on the world population are
greatly underestimated. 90
80
▪ As per the report, Bitcoin represented only 0.04% of global primary 74.6
energy consumption, 0.2% of global electricity generation, and 0.1% of
global carbon emissions in 2020. 70
62.2
60 56.6 57.2
▪ Moreover, bitcoin miners are increasing their efforts to reduce their
Scored 1-100
carbon emissions, seeking renewable energy and using otherwise wasted 49.7 49
50 47.5
energy, such as flared gas. 43.8
43
40 37.2
▪ Mainstream media reports on Bitcoin's energy consumption commonly
involves a heavy financial privilege bias: As per the report, bitcoin
adoption tends to be higher in countries with more restrictions on 30
economic freedom (see chart).
20
▪ While a significant share of the capital invested in bitcoin remains
American, European, or Chinese, Bitcoin's largest per-capita penetration is 10 4.9 5.4
in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia.
In other words, users are attracted to bitcoin at least partly due to the 0
failure of local institutions. Monetary
Monetary Property Rights Investment Financial Government Democracy
Freedom
freedom Freedom Freedom Integrity Index (1-10)
Source: NYDIG Top 10 countries average Global average
Sep 28, 2021 4Exchange-traded bitcoin funds – how did we get here?
ETF Timeline Part 1 of 2
Important days ahead for bitcoin as several ETF applications await the SEC decision deadline. Here we provide a detailed overview of the current ETF application landscape. Throughout
the spring, all ETF filings were spot-based (“physical bitcoin”). During this period, both Canada and Brazil approved BTC ETFs, while the U.S. picture remained unclear with several
postponements of the final call. Then, on August 3rd, a statement from Gensler implied that futures-based ETFs were more likely to succeed. On the next slide, we illustrate the upcoming
key dates in the current ETF race.
ETF Timeline
Dec 30, 2021 Mar 11
VanEck files for spot based Bitcoin ETF Wisdomtree files for spot based Bitcoin ETF
Mar 19
Jan 22 First Trust SkyBridge files for spot based Bitcoin ETF
Valkyrie files for spot based Bitcoin ETF Jun 28
Mar 24 ARK 21Shares files for spot based Bitcoin ETF
Sep 21
Fidelity (Wise Origin) files for spot based Bitcoin ETF Invesco Galaxy files for spot based Bitcoin ETF
Apr 09
Kryptoin files for spot based Bitcoin ETF
Jul 21
Feb 16 Apr 12 Global X files for spot based Bitcoin ETF
NYDIG files for spot based Bitcoin Galaxy files for spot based Bitcoin ETF
ETF
Aug 04
May 24 wShares files for spot based Bitcoin
One River files for spot based Bitcoin ETF ETF
Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jun 21 Aug 21
Jun 23
Brazil: QR Bitcoin CI ETF (QBTC11) launched Aug 20
Feb 18 AdvisorShares files for futures based
Canada: Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) launched bitcoin ETF
Aug 03
Gary Gensler (SEC Chair): Aug 17
“Given these important protections, I look forward to the Galaxy files for futures based bitcoin ETF
Feb 19 Mar 31 staff’s review of such filings, particularly if those are
Canada: Evolve Bitcoin ETF (EBIT) launched Canada: 3iQ Coinshares Bitcoin ETF (BTCQ) launched
limited to these CME-traded Bitcoin futures”
Aug 11
Aug 04 Valkyrie files for futures based bitcoin ETF
Mar 05 ProShares files for futures based bitcoin ETF
Canada: CI Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCX) launched Aug 10
Aug 05
Canadian wave VanEck Files for futures based bitcoin ETF
Invesco files for futures based bitcoin ETF
Sep 28, 2021 5Exchange-traded funds - Important dates approaching
An ETF Timeline part 2 of 2
We are rapidly approaching some very important
dates in the bitcoin ETF landscape. Several spot-
based ETF applications will receive the final SEC ETF Timeline - Important Dates
verdict in a couple of months, while the futures- Spot based ETF applications
based ETFs will get their first SEC response in Further SEC deadlines, 2022
October. Jan 16 First Trust SkyBridge
Jan 20 Fidelity Wise Origin
Mar 30 ARK 21Shares
▪ The final decision date for the spot ETFs Apr 14 Global X
(illustrated within the red rectangle in the chart) is
rapidly approaching. VanEck will receive the final Dec 18
verdict by November 14th, while the verdict for SEC's final decission: Kryptoin ETF
other funds follows shortly. We expect that we will
see action in the market running up towards these Jan 01
dates. SEC's final decision: Valkyrie ETF
Nov 14
SEC's final decision: VanEck Bitcoin ETF Dec 05
▪ The futures-based ETFs receive their first response SEC's final decisision Wisdomtree ETF
shortly as well. Within the next 40 days, six
futures-based bitcoin ETF applications will receive 15 Oct 25 Oct 4 Nov 14 Nov 24 Nov 4 Dec 14 Dec 24 Dec 3 Jan
the first response from the SEC
Oct 18
Oct 25
SEC's first response: ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF
▪ Following the August 3rd
quotes from Gensler, a SEC's first response: Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF
futures/based ETF seems most likely to get Oct 19
approved as of now, so the ETF response bonanza Oct 31
SEC's first response: Invesco Bitcoin Strategy ETF
in October could be an exciting period to follow. SEC's first response: Galaxy Bitcoin Strategy ETF
Oct 24
Nov 03
SEC's first response: VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF
▪ Nevertheless, there are some structural differences SEC's first response: AdvisorShares Managed Bitcoin ETF
between a futures-based ETF and a spot-based
ETF. We will examine these instruments and their
various attributes later this week on our research
blog, so make sure to pay attention to our website
and our Twitter account. Futures based ETF applications
Sep 28, 2021 6Are you looking for exclusive research or analysis?
Visit us at research.arcane.no
Sep 28, 2021 7Disclaimer
• The Weekly Update (the “Report”) by Arcane Research is a report focusing on cryptocurrencies, open blockchains and fintech. Information published in the Report aims to spread knowledge and summarise developments in
the cryptocurrency market.
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investment decision nor the formation of an investment strategy.
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transactions. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital asset before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.
• Cryptocurrencies and digital assets are speculative and highly volatile, can become illiquid at any time, and are for investors with a high risk tolerance. Investors in digital assets could lose the entire value of their investment.
• Information contained within the Report is based on sources considered to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates expressed herein reflect a judgment made as of the date of
publication and are subject to change without notice.
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are made as to the accuracy of these forward-looking statements. Any data, charts or analysis herein should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance.
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Sep 28, 2021 8Contact: research@arcane.no
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