Currency Morning View - Index September 16, 2020 - Sharekhan
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Currency Morning View
September 16, 2020
Index
News and development
USD Dollar Index
USDINR
EUROINR
GBPINR
JPYINR
Global Economic Data
Visit us at www.sharekhan.com
For Private Circulation onlySharekhan Currency Morning View
Yen climbs ahead of major central banks monetary policy
News and development
• UK Claimant count change increased by 73.7K to 2.7 million in August 2020
• UK unemployment rate rise to 4.1% in July 2020 from 3.9% in June 2020
• German ZEW Economic sentiments increased to 77.4 in September 2020 from 71.5 in August 2020
• US Empire State Manufacturing Index increased to 17.0 in September 2020 from 3.7 in August 2020
• US Industrial production increased by 0.4% in August 2020 compared to 3.5% rise in July 2020
US Dollar Index (DX): Domestic Currency Pairs-Spot
Pair Name 15/09/2020 14/09/2020 % change
US Dollar ended flat in yesterday’s trading session against
USD-INR 73.64 73.47 0.23%
basket of six major currencies as traders remained cautious
ahead of US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. EUR-INR 87.49 87.17 0.37%
Further, demand for safe haven declined on rise in risk GBP-INR 94.85 94.45 0.42%
appetite in the global markets. Market sentiments improved JPY-INR 69.61 69.37 0.35%
on upbeat economic data from China, Euro Area and US. Source: Ticker
Outlook: US Dollar is expected to remain under pressure as
traders will remain cautious ahead of US Federal Reserve Domestic Currency Pairs-Futures
monetary policy meeting and FOMC economic projections. Pair Name 15/09/2020 14/09/2020 % change
US Federal Reserve is forecasted to keep its interest rates USD-INR 73.71 73.59 0.17%
in a target range of 0-0.25% and reiterate its commitment to GBP-INR 95.23 94.77 0.49%
keep rates lower for longer time. Economic projections will
EUR-INR 87.68 87.39 0.33%
be of utmost important as its gives projection for inflation
and economic growth over next 2 years and individual JPY-INR 69.84 69.46 0.55%
FOMC members interest rate forecast. Further, market Source: Ticker
worries that rising COVID-19 cases in U.S will hurt economic
recovery. In US number of cases exceeded 66,03,900 and
death toll to 1,95,700. However, sharp downside my be 95.5
USDINR Vs Dollar Index 75.5
cushioned on rising tension between US and China. World 95 75
Trade Organization said tariffs which were imposed on 94.5
74.5
China by U.S in 2018 were inconsistent with international 94
74
trade rules. 93.5
73.5
93
92.5 73
92 72.5
USDINR:
12-Sep-20
15-Sep-20
7-Aug-20
10-Aug-20
13-Aug-20
16-Aug-20
19-Aug-20
22-Aug-20
25-Aug-20
28-Aug-20
31-Aug-20
3-Sep-20
6-Sep-20
9-Sep-20
Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.23% in yesterday’s trading
session on disappointing macroeconomic data and on
Dollar Index USDINR
ongoing concern over rising coronavirus cases in the
country. India CPI data showed that inflation remained
Major Global Currencies
above RBI target range of 2-6%. However, sharp downside
was prevented on weakness in dollar and rise in risk Pair Name 15/09/2020 14/09/2020 % change
appetite in the global markets. In Intraday Indian Rupee Dollar Index 93.05 93.05 0.00%
touched a low of 73.73 and closed at 73.64 against Dollar. EURUSD 1.1846 1.1865 -0.17%
Outlook: Indian Rupee is expected to trade with positive GBPUSD 1.2889 1.2846 0.34%
bias on weakness in Dollar and rise in risk appetite in the USDJPY 105.4 105.7 -0.28%
global markets. Market sentiments improved on upbeat USDCAD 1.318 1.317 0.05%
economic data from China, Euro Area and US and on USDCHF 0.908 0.908 -0.03%
hopes of Covid-19 vaccine. However, sharp upside may
USDNZD 1.490 1.492 -0.14%
be prevented on ongoing concern over rising corona virus
cases and tension between India and China along Line of USDAUD 135.87 135.79 0.06%
Actual control (LAC). In India number of COVID-19 cases GBPJPY 124.9 125.4 -0.42%
exceeded 49,30,200 and death toll to 80776. Global death EURJPY 1.369 1.371 -0.12%
toll from the corona virus outbreak crossed 9,33,200 and EURGBP 0.9190 0.9234 -0.48%
cases exceed 29.4 million. Traders will remain cautious
Source: Bloomberg, Ticker
September 16, 2020 2Sharekhan Currency Morning View
ahead of major central bank monetary policy across Asian Currencies
globe. USDINR Sep expected to trade in a range between Pair Name 15/09/2020 14/09/2020 % change
73.45 on lower side to 73.85 on higher side with downward
USD-CNY 6.7819 6.808 -0.38%
trend.
USD-THB 31.18 31.29 -0.35%
USD-KRW 1179.8 1181.32 -0.13%
USD-MYR 4.128 4.143 -0.36%
EURO-INR: USD-PHP 48.38 48.42 -0.08%
Euro depreciated by 0.17% in yesterday’s trading session USD-IDR 14867 14860 0.05%
as traders remained cautious ahead of major central USD-TWD 29.212 29.256 -0.15%
banks monetary policy meeting outcome. However, USD-BRL 5.2758 5.2695 0.12%
sharp downside was cushioned on weakness in Dollar Source: Ticker
and upbeat economic data from Euro Area. German ZEW
Economic sentiments increased to 77.4 in September Major indices
2020 from 71.5 in August 2020. Intraday Euro touched a Indices 15/09/2020 14/09/2020 % change
low of 1.1838 and closed at 1.1846 against Dollar. DOW JONES INDUS 27995.60 27993.33 0.01%
Outlook: Euro is expected to trade with negative bias on HANG SENG 24732.76 24640.28 0.38%
ongoing concern over rising coronavirus cases in Europe. NIKKEI 225 23454.89 23559.3 -0.44%
Further, traders are worried that stronger euro may hurt FTSE 100 6105.54 6026.25 1.32%
exports. Further, traders will remain cautious ahead of
Nifty 50 11521.80 11464.45 0.50%
major central banks monetary policy meeting outcome.
However, sharp downside may be cushioned on upbeat DAX 13217.67 13193.66 0.18%
Source: Bloomberg
economic data from Euro Area and weakness in Dollar.
EURINR Sep expected to trade in a range between 86.90
on lower side to 87.65 on higher side with upward trend.
Commodities
Commodity 15/09/2020 14/09/2020 % change
GBP-INR: Gold
Brent Crude Oil
1954.15
40.53
1956.86
39.61
-0.14%
2.32%
Pound appreciated by 0.34% in yesterday’s trading session
Silver 27.13 27.12 0.04%
on weakness in Dollar and rise in risk appetite in the global
markets. Further, better than expected economic data Copper 6761.5 6796 -0.51%
supported Pound. Additionally, UK Prime Minister Boris Source: Bloomberg
Johnson faced opposition within his party to proposed bill, called Internal Markets bill. In intraday Pound touched a high of
1.2926 and closed at 1.2886 against Dollar.
Outlook: Pound is expected to trade with negative bias on expectation of disappointing economic data from UK and
worries that UK and EU trade negotiations may fall apart. UK CPI data is likely to show that inflation eased to 0.1% in
August 2020 from 1.0% in July 2020. Market fears no deal Brexit. EU warned UK that there won’t be any trade deal if bill
is not scrapped. However, sharp downside may be cushioned on rise in risk appetite in the global markets and weakness
in Dollar. GBPINR Sep expected to trade in a range between 94.80 on lower side and 95.40 on higher side with sideways
trend.
JPY-INR:
Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.28% in yesterday’s trading session on weakness in Dollar. Further, demand for safe haven
increased ahead of major central banks monetary policy. In intraday Yen touched a high of 105.23 and closed at 105.40
against Dollar.
Outlook: Japanese Yen is expected to trade with positive bias on weakness in Dollar. Further, demand for safe haven
may increase on fears over Britain leaving EU without trade deal, decline in crude oil prices and on worries that rising
coronavirus cases across globe will dampen the economic recovery. Additionally, traders will remain cautious ahead of
major central bank monetary policy across globe. However, sharp upside may be prevented on rise in risk appetite in the
global markets. Worries over possible shift away from Abe’s economic policy known as Abenomics faded after Yoshihide
Suga, Chief Cabinet Secretary set to become next Prime Minister after being elected leader of ruling party. JPYINR Sep
expected to trade in a range between 69.80 on lower side and 70.30 on higher side with upward trend. .
September 16, 2020 3Sharekhan Currency Morning View Global Economic Data Data Country Date Time Actual Expected Previous Impact Claimant Count Change UK 15/09/2020 11:30am 73.7K 99.5K 94.4K Medium Average Earnings Index 3m/y UK 15/09/2020 11:30am -1.00% -1.30% -1.20% Medium Unemployment Rate UK 15/09/2020 11:30am 4.10% 4.10% 3.90% Medium ZEW Economic Sentiment Europe 15/09/2020 2:30pm 73.9 63 64 Medium German ZEW Economic Sentiment Europe 15/09/2020 2:30pm 77.4 69.7 71.5 Medium Empire State Manufacturing Index US 15/09/2020 6:00pm 17 6.2 3.7 Medium Industrial Production m/m US 15/09/2020 6:45pm 0.40% 1.20% 3.00% Medium CPI y/y UK 16/09/2020 11:30am - 0.10% 1.00% High Core Retail Sales m/m US 16/09/2020 6:00pm - 1.00% 1.90% High Retail Sales m/m US 16/09/2020 6:00pm - 1.10% 1.20% High FOMC Economic Projections US 16/09/2020 11:30pm - - - High FOMC Statement US 16/09/2020 11:30pm - - - High Federal Funds Rate US 16/09/2020 11:30pm -
Know more about our products and services For Private Circulation only Disclaimer: Client should read the Risk Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & relevant exchanges and the T&C on www.sharekhan. com before investing. Investment in securities market is subject to market risks. Please read all the related documents carefully before investing. This document has been prepared by Sharekhan Ltd. (SHAREKHAN), is intended for use only by the person or entity to which it is addressed to, may contain confidential and/or privileged material. This document is not for any type of circulation and any review, retransmission, or any other use is strictly prohibited. This Document is subject to changes without prior notice and does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Though disseminated to all customers who are due to receive the same, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. SHAREKHAN will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. The information contained herein is obtained from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable and SHAREKHAN has not independently verified the accuracy and completeness of the said data and hence it should not be relied upon as such. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, SHAREKHAN, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees (“SHAREKHAN and affiliates”) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent SHAREKHAN and affiliates from doing so. This document is prepared for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Recipients of this report should also be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The trading avenues discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives are highly leveraged financial instruments and can lead to disproportionate gains as well as disproportionate losses to clients. Derivatives suffer from the risk of inability to correlate perfectly with underlying assets, rates or indices. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views. Affiliates of Sharekhan may have issued other documents that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusions from the information presented in this report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject SHAREKHAN and affiliates to any registration or licencing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. SHAREKHAN or its affiliates or its directors or employees / representatives / clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or engage in transactions of purchase or sell of securities, from time to time or may be materially interested in any of the securities or related securities referred to in this report and they may have used the information set forth herein before publication. Compliance Officer: Mr. Joby John Meledan; Tel: 022-61150000; For any queries or grievances kindly email igc@sharekhan.com or contact: myaccount@sharekhan.com Registered Office: Sharekhan Limited, 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai – 400042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. Sharekhan Ltd.: SEBI Regn. Nos.: BSE / NSE / MSEI (CASH / F&O / CD) / MCX - Commodity: INZ000171337; DP: NSDL/CDSL-IN-DP-365-2018; PMS: INP000005786; Research Analyst: INH000006183; For any complaints email at igc@sharekhan.com.
You can also read
