TIERS, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY: TRENDS IN RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION - LEARNING & INNOVATION - ENDEV

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TIERS, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY: TRENDS IN RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION - LEARNING & INNOVATION - ENDEV
Tiers, Markets,
Sustainability:
Trends in Rural
Off-Grid Electrification

                       Learning & Innovation
TIERS, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY: TRENDS IN RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION - LEARNING & INNOVATION - ENDEV
Contents
                                                                                                  EnDev at a glance                                                 7
                                                                                                  Learning & Innovation Agenda                                      8
                                                                                                  Executive Summary                                                 9

                                                                                                  Introduction                                                      11
                                                                                                  1.1   What is this guide about?                                   12
                                                                                                  1.2   Who is this guide for?                                      12
                                                                                                  1.3   How was this guide developed?                               12
                                                                                                  1.4   Framing access to electricity                               13
                                                                                                  1.5   Introduction to off-grid technologies                       13
                                                                                                  1.6   Market overview of EnDev countries                          15

                                                                 Electricity Access trends                                                17
Main abbreviations
                                                                 2.1   Good progress on energy access was made in the last decade …        18
AI          Artificial Intelligence                              2.2	… however more work is left to be done
ASER        Senegalese Rural Electrification Agency                   following the COVID-19 crisis                                        19
BMZ	German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation            2.3	Projected contribution of off-grid systems
            and Development                                           to electricity access                                                21
CAPEX       Capital expenditures
DRC         Democratic Republic of the Congo
DKTI        German Climate Technology Initiative
EnDev       Energising Development
GDP         Gross Domestic Product
GIZ	German Corporation for International Cooperation
GOGLA       Global Off-Grid Lighting Association
IEA         International Energy Agency
kfW	German state-owned investment and development
            bank                                                                                 Off-grid solar market and trends                                  23
kWh         kiloWatt-hour
LNOB        Leave No One Behind
                                                                                                 3.1    Market size of the off-grid solar market                   24
MHPP        Micro-hydro power plant                                                              3.2    Evolution of the off-grid solar market and technologies    26
MTF         Multi-Tier Framework (for measuring energy access)                                   3.3    Technology focus in EnDev countries                        28
PAYGO       Pay-As-You-Go
                                                                                                 3.4    Key market trends                                          30
PUDC        Emergency Community Development Programme
                                                                                                        3.4.1 Productive use                                       30
            (in Senegal)
PUE         Productive Use of Energy                                                                    3.4.2 Digitalisation                                       31
RBF         Results-based financing                                                                     3.4.3 Add-on Products & Services                           34
SDG         Sustainable Development Goal                                                                3.4.4 Battery innovation                                   34
SENELEC     Senegalese national electricity utility
                                                                                                        3.4.5 Rural industrialisation                              36
SHS         Solar Home System
SSA         Sub-Saharan Africa
                                                                                                        3.4.6 Integrated electricity supply solutions              38
STEPS       Stated Policies Scenario (by the IEA)                                                       3.4.7 Carbon credits                                       39
TIERS, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY: TRENDS IN RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION - LEARNING & INNOVATION - ENDEV
List of figures                                                                                         List of tables
                                                                                            Figure 1.	Applicability of different off-grid technologies                                              Table 1.	Electrification situation and electrification
                                                                                                       within the Multi-Tier Framework for                                                                      planning in the EnDev countries interviewed.      22
                                                                                                       Measuring Energy Access                                                                 15   Table 2.	Mini-grids implemented in selected
                                      Sustainability in off-grid projects:                  Figure 2.	Overview of EnDev countries in Sub-Saharan                                                               EnDev countries                                   29
                                      Learning and innovation                         43              Africa with a focus on off-grid energy projects                                         16   Table 3.	Focus of interventions by EnDev in the
                                                                                            Figure 3.	Historic achievements of India and China as                                                              selected countries                                29
                                      4.1   Definition of sustainability              44              compared to required achievement of
                                            4.1.1   Sustainability indicators         46              Sub-Saharan Africa to realise universal access
                                      4.2   Key challenges/barriers                   46              to electricity (IEA, 2019).                                                             20
                                                                                            Figure 4.	Population gaining access to electricity as per
                                            4.2.1 Financial challenges                47
                                                                                                       IEA projections in the STEPS and Sustainable
                                            4.2.2 Institutional challenges            49
                                                                                                       Development Scenario, broken down by
                                            4.2.3 Technological challenges            50              technology (IEA, 2019).                                                                 21
                                            4.2.4 Social challenges                   52   Figure 5.	Installed mini-grids by region (MGP, 2020)                                              24
                                            4.2.5 Ecological challenge                53   Figure 6.	Installed mini-grids by technology (MGP, 2020)                                          24
                                                                                            Figure 7.	Projected sales of stand-alone systems
                                      4.3   Lessons learnt and innovation             58
                                                                                                       by access level tier (GOGLA, 2020)                                                      25
                                            4.3.1 Financial lessons learnt            59   Figure 8.	Interconnected solar home systems
                                            4.3.2 Institutional lessons learnt        59              on Bangladeshi roof tops (Picture by SolShare)                                          27
                                            4.3.3 Social lessons learnt               61   Figure 9.	The Greenlight Planet’s ‘BOOM’,

                                            4.3.4 Technological lessons learnt        63              a picoPV product with integrated radio                                                  28
                                                                                            Figure 10.	Visualisation of applied digitalisation
                                            4.3.5 Ecological lessons learnt           65
                                                                                                       in mini-grids (EnDev, 2020)                                                             32
                                                                                            Figure 11.	Annual installations of lead-acid and lithium-ion
                                                                                                       batteries in mini-grids (MGP, 2020)                                                     35
                                                                                            Figure 12.	BBOXX store in Katito, Kenia (Source: BBOXX)                                           35
                                                                                            Figure 13.	Some impressions from JUMEME’s operations in
Recommendations                                                                  71                   Tanzania (Source: JUMEME)                                                               37
5.1	Planning from the perspective of the virtuous cycle                                    Figure 14.	A range of customers in off-grid areas may
     for long-lasting universal electricity access                               72                   be served by a single company through
                                                                                                       various technologies, or different companies
5.2	Internalizing key considerations from the five
                                                                                                       in partnership                                                                          38
     sustainability factors across the project’s life-cycle                      74
                                                                                            Figure 15.	Winch Energy solar mini-grid
                                                                                                       (Source: Winch Energy)                                                                  39
                                                                                            Figure 16.	Identified key market trends across
                                                                                                       the different off-grid energy sectors                                                   40
Annex                                                                            77        Figure 17.	Powerhouse of a solar DC mini-grid in Rwanda
A.1   Table with full set of sustainability indicators                           78                   (Source: Razvan Sandru)                                                                 41
                                                                                            Figure 18.	Virtuous cycle of electricity provision                                                44
A.2	Interview questions for practitioners                                       80
                                                                                            Figure 19.	Overview of indicators impacting sustainability
A.3	List of contributors                                                        82                   and the virtuous cycle                                                                  46
                                                                                            Figure 20.	Level of mini-grid tariffs in comparison
                                                                                                       to national retail tariffs                                                              47
                                                                                            Figure 21.	Comparison of utility electric supply costs with
                                                                                                       cash collected in 2014 U.S. dollars per kWh
                                                                                                       (Source: Trimble et al., 2016)                                                          48
                                                                                            Figure 22. 63kWp mini-grid deployed in Hajjah, Yemen                                               60
                                                                                            Figure 23.	Delivery of solar systems to customers
                                                                                                       by Bidhaa Sasa staff in Kenya                                                           62
                                                                                            Figure 24.	An off-grid health Center powerd by solar PV
                                                                                                       in Jimma, Ethiopia (Source: Dawit Dagnew)                                               64
                                                                                            Figure 25.	Impact of a consideration of key market trends
                                                                                                       on the virtuous cycle of sustainable electricity
                                                                                                       access                                                                                  75
TIERS, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY: TRENDS IN RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION - LEARNING & INNOVATION - ENDEV
Illustrative examples                                   Recommendations

  Blue boxes provide illustrative cases                   Turquioise boxes highlight general
  from the countries                                      recommendations or critical success factors

Reading guide
The guide is structured as follows: Chapter 1 introduces this guide as well as
the topics which are explored in the guide. Chapter 2 provides an overview of
worldwide electricity access trends, with a focus in the SSA context, chapter 3
follows by setting the focus on the off-grid solar market in terms of sizing,
                                                                                                                                                                                            Copyright: EnDev/GIZ
evolution, typology of applied technologies as well as assessing key market
trends; chapter 4 deep-dives on the key underlying factors ensuring projects’
sustainability, assesses prevailing challenges and identifies lessons learnt;
finally, the learnings identified serve as the foundation to a set of recommenda-
tions presented in chapter 5.                                                                           EnDev at a glance
                                                                                                        Around 4 billion people have no access to electricity or modern cooking
                                                                                                        technologies. This has a dramatic impact on quality of life, environment,
                                                                                                        health, education and income opportunities. EnDev’s involvement focuses
                                                                                                        on providing access to modern, renewable energy. This is a pivotal factor
                                                                                                        in strength-ening socio-economic development and combatting climate
                                                                                                        change.

                                                                                                        EnDev’s drive is to improve the lives of the most     andcompanies gain access to electricity or improved
                                                                                                        vulnerable people, ensuring no one is left behind.    cooking technologies can be found in this report.
                                                                                                        Economic opportunities and green jobs are created     This report also presents EnDev’s impacts on
                                                                                                        by building markets for modern, renewable energy.     gender, job creation, and reduced carbon emissions.
                                                                                                        EnDev con-tributes to reducing greenhouse gas         EnDev is a strategic partnership. Dedicated donors,
                                                                                                        emis-sions to protect our planet’s climate. Its ap-   partners and individuals work together to support
                                                                                                        proach is to empower structural, selfsustaining       social develop-ment and economic growth by
                                                                                                        change; kickstarting market and sector development    providing access to modern,renewable energy in
                                                                                                        that evolves further without support by EnDev.        more than 20 countries around the globe. The
                                                                                                                                                              driving force behind EnDev is the partnership of
                                                                                                        EnDev’s work is about people. Results are monitored   Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland;
                                                                                                        and reported rigorously. EnDev’s achievements on      donors who are committed to accelerating energy
                                                                                                        helping peo-ple, schools, health centres,             access and socio-economic development.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   7
TIERS, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY: TRENDS IN RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION - LEARNING & INNOVATION - ENDEV
Copyright: Carsten Hellpap

Learning & Innovation Agenda                                                                                         Executive summary
Energising Development (EnDev) is one of the             approaches to accelerate electrification in rural           SDG 7 – Universal access to electricity – is to be       Off-grid funding is significantly lower than funding
largest on-the-ground technical assistance pro-          areas.                                                      achieved within the current decade. Despite signifi-     for the main grid, with only one quarter of all funds
grammes for energy access in the world. At present,                                                                  cant progress, we are however currently off-track to     for electricity access targeted at connecting resi-
EnDev is striving to further develop and structure its   This knowledge product aims to:                             meet the target. This guide showcases that key           dential customers. Yet, off-grid electrification
learning and innovation (L&I) agenda with the                                                                        market trends in the off-grid electrification sector     solutions present a viable and sustainable option for
intention of sharing its results with the wider SDG7     •   Contribute to an increase of sustainability             and sustainability indicators should be considered       access to electricity for more than 50% of SSA’s
community. The aim is that this shared knowledge             practices within EnDev and other interventions in       to accelerate the deployment and maximise the            population. 2
can lead to both a higher pace of implementation             the field of rural electrification through off-grid     impact of off-grid electrification projects. The guide
and increased impact of the EnDev programme. The             technology,                                             focuses on Sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the       The majority of off-grid products sold and installed
results shared can also inform similar initiatives in                                                                largest gap towards universal access.                    are still only meeting Tier 1 or below of ESMAP’s
the field.                                               •   Expand the knowledge and understanding of                                                                        Multi-Tier Framework, despite plug-and-play solar
                                                             innovative and successful approaches resulting in                                                                home systems (SHS) having gained significant
Through the EnDev L&I Agenda, EnDev supports                 the implementation of sustainable off-grid energy       Unprecedented efforts in the off-grid                    traction over the last decade. More and more mini-­
EnDev implementers in the collection, analysis and           projects, as well as related barriers to overcome,      sector are needed to meet SDG 7                          grid companies are also delivering access to electric-
sharing of findings and experiences of the imple-                                                                                                                             ity that is close to, or even better than, grid quality.
mentation of energy access activities. In addition, it   •   Actively strengthen EnDev’s new programming             To be able to connect the close to 600m people
aims to provide learnings to a wider audience of             phase (2021 to 2024), pilots and other                  without access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa
energy access practitioners. This report focuses on          interventions.                                          (SSA) by 2030, an unprecedented effort is required.
lessons learned from the EnDev programme man-                                                                        The current COVID-19 pandemic has led to an
                                                                                                                                                                                            1   The Covid-19 crisis is reversing progress on
aged by GIZ and RVO, and from EnDev implement-           This report first introduces the methodology em-            increase of the people without access to electricity
                                                                                                                                                                                                energy access in Africa – Analysis - IEA
ers such as SNV, GIZ, HIVOS, Practical Action, AVSI,     ployed to develop this guide and provides an over-          in the region for the first time since 2013, and a
ADES, NIS and CLASP.                                     view of different off-grid technologies. Following          decline of energy access by 2% or 13 million people                    2   IEA, ESMAP and the Mini-Grid Partnership
                                                         this, an overview of the current situation on access        in 2020 compared to 2019.1 Current policies on                             all project slightly different figures for the
GIZ is leading the EnDev Learning & Innovation           to electricity is provided, followed by an outlook of       electricity access will be unable to outpace the                           contribution of off-grid technologies to
                                                                                                                                                                                                access to electricity, but all are projecting a
Agenda on Rural Electrification within EnDev. This       the off-grid sector and current market trends that          region’s population growth.
                                                                                                                                                                                                contribution beyond 50%
Practitioners’ Group on Rural Electrification aims to    shape the latter. Finally, sustainability indicators that
bring together EnDev implementers and other              directly contribute to reliable and affordable electric-
organisations to share and exchange successful           ity access are derived

8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             9
TIERS, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY: TRENDS IN RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION - LEARNING & INNOVATION - ENDEV
Digitalised systems, integrated                          Inclusion of market trends and
energy solutions and rural                               ­sustainability indicators in
industrialisation are the future of the                   off-grid projects will result in reliable
off-grid sector                                           and affordable electricity access

Within the off-grid sector, key market trends beyond     The ultimate goal of off-grid projects is the delivery
a reduction in the cost of technology are improving      of sustainable, reliable and affordable electricity
companies’ effectiveness in delivering reliable and      access. By recognising and including the key market
affordable electricity to customers. Some of the         trends in off-grid projects, and by leveraging specif-
current trends include productive use, the digitalisa-   ic sustainability indicators, organisations can accel-
tion of the sector, and the drive for SHS companies      erate and enhance the realisation of their access
to offer increasingly diverse products and services.     targets. This implies integrating the considerations
                                                         stemming from the financial, institutional, social,
The future of the off-grid space is determined by the    technological and ecologic dimensions of sustaina-
leveraging of digitalised solutions and existing value   bility into projects’ conceptualization and implemen-
chains to sustainably industrialise rural areas, and     tation.
provide integrated electrification solutions that are
renewable, technology-agnostic and de-                   Sector coupling that leverages synergies between
mand-based.                                              the rural electrification and industrialization sectors,
                                                         conducive regulatory frameworks, an enhancement
                                                         of the role of women as active agents of change
                                                         and the creation of mechanisms that enable scala-
                                                         ble circular economy principles in remote rural areas
                                                         are all identified as pre-requirements for timely
                                                         achieving SDG7.

                                                                                                                    Introduction
10
TIERS, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY: TRENDS IN RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION - LEARNING & INNOVATION - ENDEV
1    Introduction

This guide on the major factors impacting the sustainability of off-grid                                           1.4 Framing access to electricity                        1.5 Introduction to
projects is a result of the EnDev Learning & Innovation Agenda. Its inten-                                                                                                        off-grid technologies
tion is to provide EnDev practitioners and the broader community in the                                            While the traditional definition of energy access         The off-grid technologies considered within the
                                                                                                                   involves a connection to an electricity distribution      guide are picoPV systems, solar home systems,
off-grid energy space with practical insights, lessons learnt and knowl-                                           network, the definition in the rural electrification      nano-grids and mini-grids. Collectively, the picoPV
edge applicable to the implementation of sustainable off-grid projects.                                            sector has evolved to acknowledge that access             systems and solar home systems are referred to as
                                                                                                                   to energy is not a binary variable. Instead, access       “stand alone systems”.
                                                                                                                   to energy can be measured through dimensions
                                                                                                                   such as reliability, affordability, quality, duration                     PicoPV systems are low-capacity
1.1 What is this guide about?                             1.3 How was this guide developed?                      and health & safety. In 2015, the World Bank                              devices providing either only light
                                                                                                                   ­developed the Multi-Tier Framework for Measuring                         (solar lanterns), or combine these
Despite the efforts of EnDev and many other inter-         Beyond desk-based research, the main contents for        Energy Access (MTF), which complements the                               with small-scale applications, such
national organisations (World Bank, AfDB, UN,              this guide were developed through conducting             binary definition of energy access through this                          as phone charging, radios or loud-
USAID, etc.), the goal of universal access to electrici-   targeted interviews with staff of EnDev or its part-     multi-dimensional approach. The MTF classifies           speakers. The systems are composed of either
ty by the end of this decade remains elusive. Par-         ners in EnDev countries that have placed a particular    access to electricity for households through the         singular units containing a solar panel and lamp(s),
ticularly in rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, univer-    focus on off-grid energy interventions. These            following criteria: 3                                    or units with a single lamp separated from a solar
sal access is not within reach, although good              countries are: Ethiopia, Mali, Senegal and Uganda. In                                                             panel. PicoPV systems roughly range in size be-
progress has been made in selected countries.              addition, an interview was conducted in the DRC         •   Tier 0: no or insufficient access to energy.          tween 1 and 50Wp.4,5 In the MTF6, picoPV systems
                                                           with AVSI, an implementer of EnDev. Insights from                                                                 can generally provide only Tier 0 or Tier 1 access.
Therefore, universal electrification efforts ought to      the interviews have been utilised throughout the        •   Tier 1: reliable and affordable access to task
be accelerated and designed as effective as possi-         guide, and relevant tables are highlighting some of         lighting and phone charging.                                           Solar home systems (SHS) are PV
ble to achieve maximum impact within a short               the key learnings from these exchanges.                                                                                            systems with a separate solar panel,
timeframe. The guide analyses key market trends                                                                    •   Tier 2: electricity access for general lighting,                       battery and usage points, such as
and sustainability indicators in the picoPV, SHS,          Brief interviews were also conducted with off-grid          phone charging, television and fan if needed.                          lamps or plugs, connected to the
nano-grid and mini-grid sectors that can contribute        practitioners for the development of case studies                                                                                  battery through cables. SHS can
towards the achievement of delivering reliable and         which are interspersed throughout the guide.            •   Tier 3: Tier 2 applications and any medium-power      serve several lighting points and larger systems
affordable electricity access.                                                                                         appliances (i.e. fridge).                             allow multiple uses, including phone chargers,
                                                                                                                                                                             radios, small fridges, fans and TV sets. Typical SHS
                                                                                                                   •   Tier 4: Tier 3 applications and any high-power        range in size between 20Wp and 800Wp, though
1.2 Who is this guide for?                                                                                            appliances.                                           smaller and larger SHS do exist. Solar systems for
                                                                                                                                                                             institutions and commercial applications installed in
Stakeholders benefitting from this report include:                                                                 •   Tier 5: Tier 4 applications and any very high-power   facilities such as schools, health centres, other
                                                                                                                       appliances.                                           public institutions and travel lodges are considered
•    The EnDev practitioners’ group, which has been                                                                                                                          within the category of “solar home systems” for the
     consulted at various stages of the project. This                                                              The following section presents off-grid electrifica-      purposes of this report, although these are losing
     practitioners’ group includes representatives of                                                              tion technologies and how each fulfils the demands        traction in favour of plug-and-play systems. SHS
     GIZ, RVO, SNV, Practical Action and AVSI.                                                                     of the outlined tiers.                                    typically provide Tier 2 or Tier 3 access to electricity
                                                                                                                                                                             in ESMAP’s MTF. Very large SHS mostly for commer-
•    Practitioners in the off-grid space who would like                                                                                                                      cial applications or applications within social infra-
     to implement sustainable projects delivering                                                                                                                            structures can be argued to provide Tier 3-4 access.
                                                                                                                                  3   ESMAP, 2015.
     long-term access to reliable and affordable
     electricity.

                                                                                                                                                                                           4   https://energypedia.info/wiki/Features_of_
                                                                                                                                                                                               PicoPV_Systems

                                                                                                                                                                                           5   https://energypedia.info/wiki/Features_of_
                                                                                                                                                                                               PicoPV_Systems World Bank Document

                                                                                                                                                                                           6   https://mtfenergyaccess.esmap.org/

12                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      13
TIERS, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY: TRENDS IN RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION - LEARNING & INNOVATION - ENDEV
1   Introduction

                Nano-grids are generally DC systems                                                                 Tier 0              Tier 1                 Tier 2                Tier 3                Tier 4                Tier 5
                of power capacity between 500Wp                                                                     =3W capacity          >=50W capacity        >=200W capacity       >=800W capacity       >=2kW capacity
                and 10 kWp installed in comparatively                                                               =4h/day supply        >=4h/day supply       >=8h/day supply       >=16h/day             >=23h/day
                smaller communities that serve only                                                                 >14                 >14                    >14
TIERS, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY: TRENDS IN RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION - LEARNING & INNOVATION - ENDEV
1    Introduction

                                                                                                     East Africa

                                                                                                   Burundi
          West Africa                                                                                 DRC
                                                                                                  Ethiopia
            Benin                                                                                   Kenya
         (Guinea)                                                                                  Malawi
           Liberia                                                                         Mozambique
             Mali                                                                                 Rwanda
         Senegal                                                                                  Tanzania
     Sierra Leone                                                                                 Uganda

          Hydro              Grid extension                Cooking energy                 Solar                    Biogas

Figure 2. Overview of EnDev countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with a focus on off-grid energy projects

                                                                                                                            Electricity
                                                                                                                            Access trends
16
TIERS, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY: TRENDS IN RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION - LEARNING & INNOVATION - ENDEV
2    Electricity Access trends

The vast majority of people without access to electricity now lives in                                                     2.2 … however more work is left to be done
Sub-Saharan Africa. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is reversing some                                                             following the COVID-19 crisis.
of the progress on energy access made in the last decade, however de-
                                                                                                                                             According to the IEA, the COVID-19       In both scenarios, countries such as Ghana, Kenya,
centralised energy solutions remain one of the most viable solutions for                                                                     pandemic has significantly negatively    Senegal, Ethiopia and Rwanda manage to achieve
rapidly electrifying millions of people.                                                                                                     impacted progress towards universal      universal access by 2030 through the effective and
                                                                                                                                             access to electricity, especially in     ambitious policies and programmes they had
                                                                                                                                             decentralised energy. The pandemic       already put in place prior to the crisis. In 2030, under
                                                                                                                           has resulted in a shift in government priorities and       the STEPS scenario, it is anticipated that close to
2.1 Good progress on energy access was made in the last decade …                                                          supply chain disruptions. Necessary social distanc-        50% of the global population without access is
                                                                                                                           ing measures have rendered the installation and            concentrated in only seven countries – Democratic
The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines a           be attributed to a small number of countries, includ-            operation of off-grid projects increasingly difficult.     Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania,
household as having electricity access when it has        ing Kenya, Senegal, Rwanda, Ghana and Ethiopia. In               The effect is yet to be fully quantified, however first    Niger, Sudan and Pakistan. 20 The six countries in
“reliable and affordable access to electricity, which     Kenya, the access rate rose from 20% in 2013 to                  estimates by the IEA indicate that the overall popu-       SSA are among the 20 fastest-growing countries by
is enough to supply a basic bundle of energy servic-      almost 85% in 2019. The majority of progress in SSA              lation without access to electricity in Sub-Saharan        population, making this a main impediment in
es initially, and with the level of service capable of    is a direct result of grid connections, but off-grid             Africa has likely increased in 2020 for the first time     limiting countries to achieve universal access to
growing over time“.7 The IEA considers that this          systems have played an increasingly important role               since 2013.13 Considering current population growth        electricity.
basic bundle contains several lightbulbs, phone           over recent years.                                               rates, it is estimated that to achieve universal
charging, a radio and potentially a fan or television.                                                                     access, approximately 940 million people would             Indeed, when comparing the required progress to
Both access to electricity through the main grid and      Around 15 million people were connected to mi-                   need to be connected to electricity by 2030.14 The         be made by Sub-Saharan Africa with historic
through decentralised systems, including SHS,             ni-grids in Africa by 2019 10, while the number of               IEA has developed two different scenarios to project       achievements, it can be posited that achieving
nano-grids and mini-grids, are counted as ’access         people gaining access through SHS in SSA in-                     future energy access: The Stated Policies Scenario         universal access within this decade requires un-
to electricity’. In contrast, the World Bank’s MTF        creased from two million in 2016 11 to almost five               (STEPS) highlights likely energy access results if         precedented efforts. China took more than 30 years
Framework extends the definition of ‘access to            million in 2018.12 The increase in SHS has been                  current and announced policies continue, and the           to connect the final 600m people to electricity, and
energy’ to PicoPV products for Tier 1 as well, as long    concentrated in a few countries: Kenya, Tanzania                 Sustainable Development Scenario includes recov-           India has so far taken close to 20 years for the same
as they guarantee a high-quality, affordable, stable,     and Ethiopia accounted for almost 50% of new                     ery plans and programmes that governments could            feat, without having achieved universal access yet
sufficient (given size of household), convenient,         connections in 2018.                                             launch to accelerate energy access.                        (see Figure 3).
healthy and safe electricity consumption.
                                                                                                                           Under STEPS, there is a slowdown in progress in
                                                                                                                                                                                                    13 https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/data/files/
Data from the IEA indicates that 90% of the global                                                                         2020 and 2021 due to the crisis, and a projected
                                                                                                                                                                                                       download-documents/2021_tracking_sdg7_
population now has access to electricity.8 In Sub-­                                                                        660 million people who still do not have access to                          report.pdf
                                                                        7    https://www.iea.org/articles/defining-ener-
Saharan Africa, despite electricity access outpacing                                                                       electricity by 2030 due to Sub-Saharan Africa’s
                                                                             gy-access-2020-methodology
population growth over recent years, the overall                                                                           strong population growth. To bridge the gap, the                         14 https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/data/files/
picture is still bleak. Less than 50% of the population                                                                    connection rate would have to triple from its current                       download-documents/2021_tracking_sdg7_
                                                                        8    https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/data/files/
                                                                                                                                                                                                       report.pdf
is connected as of today, and close to 600m people                           download-documents/2021_tracking_sdg7_        level to nearly 90 million connections a year up to
still lack access.9 Much of the recent progress can                          report.pdf                                    2030.15 The Sustainable Development Scenario
                                                                                                                                                                                                    15 ESMAP, 2019: Mini Grids for Half a Billion
                                                                                                                           considers that around $35 billion is needed annually                        People
                                                                        9    https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-access
                                                                                                                           from 2021 to 2030 on access to electricity, fully
                                                                        10 ESMAP, 2019: Mini Grids for Half a Billion      tapping decentralised solutions.16 Under this scenar-                    16 https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/data/files/
                                                                                                                           io, it is estimated that almost two thirds of funding                       download-documents/2021_tracking_sdg7_
                                                                           People
                                                                                                                                                                                                       report.pdf
                                                                                                                           for electricity access should go to SSA.17 Until 2019,
                                                                        11   IEA, 2017: Energy Access Outlook 2017         only approximately one quarter of funding commit-                        17 https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/data/files/
                                                                                                                           ted for access to electricity was directed towards                          download-documents/2021_tracking_sdg7_
                                                                        12   IEA, 2019: Africa Energy Outlook
                                                                                                                           electricity provision for residential customers18 , with                    report.pdf
                                                                                                                           the remainder serving commercial and industrial
                                                                                                                           sectors, export and others.19                                            18 https://www.seforall.org/news/research-
                                                                                                                                                                                                       shows-world-at-a-tipping-point-to-meet-
                                                                                                                                                                                                       global-energy-goals-by-2030

                                                                                                                                                                                                    19 https://www.seforall.org/data-and-evi-
                                                                                                                                                                                                       dence/energizing-finance-series/energiz-
                                                                                                                                                                                                       ing-finance-2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                    20 https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-da-
                                                                                                                                                                                                       ta-and-projections/access-to-electricity

18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  19
2                                            Electricity Access trends
                                                                                                                                                                Despite the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in the early part of the decade, the outlook
                                                                                                                                                                for access to electricity indicates continued progress to 2030 but without achieving the goal of universal
                                                                                                                                                                access. The number of people remaining without access to electricity in 2030 is expected to decline under
                                                                                                                                                                the policies set out in IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario to 660 million (8 percent of the global population), of
Population without access (million people)

                                                                                                                                                                 2.3 Projected contribution of off-grid systems to electricity access
                                                                                                                                                                whom some 555 million (or 85 percent) reside in Sub-Saharan Africa (figure 6.1). SDG target 7.1 remains
                                                                                                                   Historical           Projections
                                               600                                                                                                              within reach, and policies implemented in several countries have put them on track to achieve universal
                                                                                                                                                                 In the Sustainable
                                                                                                                                                                access.    The same Development
                                                                                                                                                                                       cannot be said  Scenario
                                                                                                                                                                                                          for manyby the   IEA, isedcountries.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sub-Saharan      solutions have multiple advantages over grid
                                                                                                                                                                 decentralised solutions will contribute to 55% of               connections: They are faster to deploy, do not
                                               500                                                                                                              Developing      Asia remains    on track 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                           to reach    an accessrequire
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   rate ofsignificant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            98 percent     by 2030, an     improvement
                                                                                                                                       Sub-Saharan Africa        new connections      realised between           and 2030,                             infastructure   updates    and allowof close
                                                                                                                                           2018–30              to  20   percentage    points   since  2010.  The
                                                                                                                                                                 with slightly more people being connected through  very   populous   countries    of  Bangladesh,     India,  Indonesia,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 technologies to be deployed based on the particular           and the
                                               400                                                                                                              Philippines     are on  a pathway    to  reach  full  access   before  2030;   a few   million  people    remain   without      access
                                                                                                            India                                                mini-grids (31%) than SHS (24%) (see Figure 4).        21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 demand of a community.
                                                                                                                                                                in countries such as Pakistan. The region of Central and South America is projected to continue its steady
                                               300                                                         2002–18
                                                                            China                                                                               progress, moving to 99 percent in 2030, with22most of those remaining without access living in rural areas.
                                                                                                                                                                 An analysis by the Mini-Grids Partnership (MGP)
                                                                                                                                                                Haiti remains the only major country in the region to have a substantial nonelectrified population.
                                                                         1965–2000                                                                               presents a slightly more biased projection towards
                                               200
                                                                                                                                                                 mini-grids,
                                                                                                                                                                In  many less  with the MGP
                                                                                                                                                                                  well-off     projecting
                                                                                                                                                                                           regions,        that, to reach
                                                                                                                                                                                                     the economic       downturn caused by COVID-19 is compounding the difficulties
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 21 https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/data/files/
                                               100                                                                                                               universal
                                                                                                                                                                faced        access to electricity,
                                                                                                                                                                         by governments      as theyapproximately
                                                                                                                                                                                                      seek to alleviate46%energy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             of     poverty and expand        access. Past progress on energy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     download-documents/2021_tracking_sdg7_
                                                                                                                                                                access    in many
                                                                                                                                                                 connections        parts
                                                                                                                                                                                 should  beofrealised
                                                                                                                                                                                               Africa is being mini-grids,
                                                                                                                                                                                                      through   reversed: the number of people          without
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     report.pdf    access to electricity is set to
                                                                                                                                                                increase    in 2020,   while  basic electricity
                                                                                                                                                                 and only 11% through SHS. Finally, ESMAP esti-
                                                                                                                                                                                                23                services   have become     unaffordable      for up to 30 million people who
                                                                                                                                                                previously     had  access.   The  COVID-19    crisis
                                                                                                                                                                 mates are putting electrification through mini-grids   has  brought   into  stark  relief  the  sizeable
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 22 Who We Are | Mini-Grids global   inequalities in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Partnership
                                                             1970           1980          1990         2000          2010       2018            2030            access    to  reliable energy   and  health-care     services,  especially  in rural  and   peri-urban    areas,  highlighting     the
                                                                                                                                                                 at approximately 41%, or close to 500m people
                                                                                                                                                                need    to expand    access   to help  populations
                                                                                                                                                                 total. All analyses are however in agreement that
                                                                                                                                                                       24                                              mitigate  the  effects  of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 23     pandemic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mini-Grids      (IEA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Partnership 2020a).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2020, State of  the
                                                                         Achieving access for all in sub-Saharan Africa in only twelve years                                                                                                         Global Mini-Grids Market Report
                                                                                       will require an unprecedented effort                                      decentralised solutions will play a major role in
                                                                                                                                                                FIGURE 6.1 • Population without access to electricity in 2030, and delivery of electricity connections by technology
                                                                                                                                                                 realising universal access to electricity. Decentral-
                                                                                                                                                                and region in IEA scenarios                                                      24 ESMAP, 2019: Mini-Grids for Half a Billion
Figure 3 Historic achievements of India and China as compared to required achievement of Sub-Saharan Africa to                                                                                                                                                                                   People
realise universal access to electricity (IEA, 2019)                                                                                                                                                                Population without access to electricity in 2030                              People gaining access by technology by 2030
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           under Stated Policies Scenario                                          under Sustainable Development Scenario

                                                                                                                                                                                            700

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Rest of the world
                                                                                                                                                                                            600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Rest of developing asia
                                                                                                                                                                                            500                                                                                                     Stand-alone
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Rest of Sub-Saharan Africa                   systems

                                                                                                                                                                    Population (millions)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        24%
                                                                                                                                                                                            400                                                                                                                                   On-grid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Pakistan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   45%
                                                                                                                                                                                            300                                                          Sudan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Uganda
                                                                                                                                                                                            200                                                                                                         Mini-grids
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          31%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Nigeria
                                                                                                                                                                                            100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Dem. Republic of the Congo
                                                                                                                                                                                             0

                                                                                                                                                                      Figure 4. Population gaining access to electricity as per IEA projections in the STEPS and Sustainable D
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ­ evelopment
                                                                                                                                                                Source: IEA 2020b.
                                                                                                                                                                      Scenario, broken down by technology (IEA, 2019)

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Population without access to clean cooking in 2030                         Population using different fuels for cooking in developing countries
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         under Stated Policies Scenario                                           by 2030 under Sustainable Development Scenario

                                                                                                                                                              160                                              2500                                                                                                            Other
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                               2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Electric
                                                                                                                                                                                             tion (millions)

                                                                                                                                       Copyright: EnDev/GIZ                                                                                                                                                    16%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Rest of the world
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   21
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1500                                                                                                                     LPG
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Developing Asia
2    Electricity Access trends

      Topic                DRC                    Ethiopia                     Mali                   Senegal                   Uganda
Electrification According to IEA,           47% access overall,       50% overall access,      71% overall access,        29% overall access,
situation 25      around 9% overall,        11% through off-grid      78% in urban and         94% in urban and           66% in urban and
                  with 19% urban and        solutions; 96%            28% in rural areas       50% in rural areas         17% in rural areas
                  less than 1% rural,       urban and 34% rural
                  however situation
                  difficult to access due
                  to size of country
Electrification • Target to reach 30% • Target of universal         • No clear road to      • ERIL approach in        • Have electrification
planning 26         by 2030 very ambiti-     access by 2030            electrification,          Senegal focused on        masterplan
                    ous Mapping not         • O ff-grid playing a     however mini-grids        incentivising local      • 683 solar mini-grid
                    done Focus on            part as pre-electrifi-    will play an import-      investments in small      sites included
                    large-scale projects     cation and very rural     ant role                  concessions in rural     • SHS also outlined
                  • Essor project in DRC    areas                                               areas including SHS       but companies ‘go
                    with planned mini       • Most mini-grids to                                and mini-grids;           where business is’
                    grids in 3 remote        be developed by                                     Determination of         • Seeing potential of
                    cities for a total of    public sector with                                  technology following      25,000 mini-grids
                    25,000 household         EPC tender                                          assessment
                    and SME connec-                                                            • Access to electricity
                    tions (DFID, AfDB)                                                           is highly political
                    might be a game                                                            • Policy to cover
                    changer                                                                      remaining commu-
                                                                                                 nities with 61% grid
                                                                                                 extension, 7%
                                                                                                 (1.000) mini-grids,
                                                                                                 32% SHS

Table 1. Electrification situation and electrification ­p lanning in the EnDev countries interviewed.

                                                                                              25 Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2020:
                                                                                                 https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-da-
                                                                                                 ta-and-projections/access-to-electricity

                                                                                              26 Based on interviews conducted

                                                                                                                                                    Off-grid solar
                                                                                                                                                    market and trends
22
3    Off-grid solar market and trends

Through the integration of key market trends in the design of off-grid pro-                                              The implementation of mini-grids is differing vastly               scattered, and it is difficult to estimate progress on
                                                                                                                         between countries. There are ‘early sector develop-                electrification in general as well as total number of
jects, rural electrification practitioners can develop cutting-edge solutions                                            ers’, such as Mali and Senegal, who have each                      mini-grids implemented. Table 2 on page 20 pro-
that provide maximum results to beneficiaries. By fostering distinct market                                              implemented over 200 mini-grids over the last                      vides an overview of the number of mini-grids
                                                                                                                         decade, but are struggling with operations and                     implemented and planned in the EnDev countries
trends they can further shape the future of the sector.                                                                  maintenance (see chapter 4 for more detail). There                 interviewed.
                                                                                                                         are ‘current focal points’ like Nigeria and Sierra
                                                                                                                         Leone, who are rapidly implementing a large number                 The market for stand-alone systems equally remains
                                                                                                                         of mini-grids. Finally, there are ‘high potential’                 on a strong growth trajectory, with the sector being
3.1 Market size of the off-grid solar market                                                                            markets such as Uganda and Ethiopia, which have                    projected to serve 823 million users globally by
                                                                                                                         not yet experienced the implementation of a signifi-               2030.30 Over the next decade alone, annual sales of
The off-grid solar sector, including picoPV, SHS,       10% of mini-grids were PV, in 2020 55% are purely                cant number of mini-grids, but are undergoing                      stand-alone systems are projected to increase from
nano-grids and mini-grids, has grown considerably       solar PV. 29 While the average mini-grid capacity                preparations for scale-up in the (near) future. Of all             35m to 72m annually.
over the last decade. As of 2019, approximately 84m     (taking into account the total of 2.37 GW) is at 427             EnDev countries assessed for this guide, the DRC
stand-alone systems (picoPV and SHS) were in            kW/mini-grid, the majority of solar mini-grids falls             appears to be the only one not fitting squarely into
utilisation by customers, and more than 5,000           under 100 kW.                                                    any category, considering its unique characteristics
nano-grid and mini-grid projects had been imple-                                                                         in terms of size, security situation and logistical
                                                                                                                                                                                                          30 GOGLA, 2020: Off-Grid Solar Market Trends
mented. 27 Of the 84m stand-alone systems, approx-                                                                       challenges. The situation across the DRC is very
                                                                       27 Mini-Grids Partnership, 2020: State of the                                                                                         Report
imately 18m were SHS and 66m picoPV systems. 28
                                                                          Global Mini-Grids Market Report

In the mini-grid space, most projects so far have                      28 GOGLA Off-Grid Solar Market Trends
been implemented in Asia, with the majority of                            Report 2020                                                                     80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           72
projects currently under development being located
in Sub-Saharan Africa. Technology has equally                          29 Mini-Grids Partnership, 2020: State of the

                                                                                                                             Annual Sales (in Millions)
                                                                          Global Mini-grids Market Report                                                                                                                 4%
undergone a shift over the last decade. In 2009, only                                                                                                     60
                                                                                                                                                                                                               52

                         1%             0,4 %                          3,2 %     0%     2%                                                                                                      6%
                                                                                                                                                          40                        35
                                                                                                                                                               28     10 %

                                                                                                                                                          20

                                                                       13 %
                                                                                                                                                          0
               39 %                                                                                                                                            2017                2019                      2024                        2030
                                                                11 %
                        5,544 projects                                         5,544 projects       50 %                                                                     Tier 1 and Above              Below Tier 1

                                                60 %
                                                                                                                         Figure 7. Projected sales of stand-alone systems by access level tier (GOGLA, 2020)

                                                                         21 %

                       Asia                                                Solar                          Hydro
                       Sub-Saharan Africa                                  Diesel and/or HFO              Solar hybrid
                       Island nations                                      Biomass                        Wind
                       Latin America                                       Other

Figure 5. Installed mini-grids by region (MGP, 2020)    Figure 6. Installed mini-grids by technology (MGP, 2020)

24                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 25
3    Off-grid solar market and trends

3.2 Evolution of the off-grid solar market and technologies
The strong growth of the off-grid sector is anticipat-         Nano-grids are comparatively CAPEX- and technol-                  ising solar mini-grids is that the PV and battery           discussed above, off-grid (diesel) hybrid systems
ed to continue in the near- and mid-term future.               ogy-intensive when compared to individual SHS for                 banks can be scaled down, saving valuable CAPEX             still present the most viable commercial case for
Despite a slow move towards larger systems, the                households, and their commercial viability yet                    investments and improving commercial viability. The         mini-grids. These technologies may be accept-
majority of systems sold is still small-scale (Tier 1 or       remains to be proven in Sub-Saharan Africa. So far,               reduction in CAPEX investments can also be passed           ed by EnDev, but only as part of an explicit
below). As more and more communities are being                 they have only been proven successful in Asia,                    on to end consumers through reduced tariffs, which          broader transition of technology towards 100%
connected to the grid and receiving electricity                where rural areas typically have a higher population              is one of the key challenges in mini-grids (see             Renewable Energy.
through nano- and mini-grids, the unelectrified                density compared to villages in SSA. A similar                    chapter 4.2.1). However, some of the interviewees
population is increasingly remote. This contributes            approach, whereby SHS are interconnected to one                   have noted difficulties with operating hybrid mi-           Where suitable geographical conditions allow
to the remaining popularity of picoPV systems, as              another, is called “swarm electrification”, which has             ni-grids, considering that the gensets require              for this, micro-hydro power plants (MHPP) are
well as the continuously falling costs of technology.          proven to be workable where technology is of                      constant attention by operators who need to pur-            regarded as an effective solution to ensuring
By now, the market for picoPV systems, in compari-             sufficient standard and adequately installed. Exam-               chase and refill fuel. The fuel itself is also vulnerable   24/7 electricity access without the need to rely
son to other technologies, is significantly more               ples of these have been FlexGrid, SolShare in                     to theft. In some cases, the operational challenges         on the diesel hybridisation approach or (still)
crowded in terms of active players and ability to              Bangladesh, PowerBox in Mozambique, Solergie in                   of gensets have led to these gensets finally not            expensive battery banks. MHPP technology has
supply, including manufacturers who sell non-brand             Togo and other countries in SSA and South-East                    being used or maintained by the operators, leading          traditionally been successful in Nepal and has
systems at prices close to branded systems. Regret-            Asia.                                                             to quick deterioration and ultimate failure.                successfully been piloted by EnDev in countries
tably, the quality of these systems is not always on                                                                                                                                         such as Indonesia, Ethiopia and Rwanda. Never-
par with those that are quality certified (e.g. VeraSol),      Full-scale mini-grids nowadays mainly use solar PV                Similar to many donors, EnDev now follows a 100%            theless, it is important to note the site-specific
contributing to a low consumer confidence in solar             as a source of electricity, with some mini-grids still            renewable energy policy. However, electrification           nature of this technology and the relatively
products in some Sub-Saharan African markets (e.g.             integrating a back-up diesel generator, making them               from grid extensions and grid densifications are            higher operational capacities compared to solar
Ethiopia).                                                     solar hybridised systems. The advantage of hybrid-                often based on a partial fossil fuel mix. Similarly, as     nano- and mini-grids.

                                   Case Study:
                                   SolShare – Swarm E
                                                    ­ lectrification
                                   SOLshare’s foundation was inspired by a team of PhD
                                   students’ findings that the 4.3 million SHS deployed in
                                   Bangladesh produce a surplus of 30% energy totalling USD 1
                                   billion in unused energy value every year. The peer-to-peer
                                   (P2P) electricity trading solution developed by SOLshare is
                                   based on interconnecting these solar home systems to
                                   enable consumers and producers to trade electricity directly,
                                   without the need for an intermediary.

                                   The IoT-driven software platform SOLbazaar that was
                                   developed by SOLshare is a dynamic energy marketplace
                                   that allows SHS users to sell their excess energy to other
                                   SHS users or non-users who lack their own home systems.
                                   SOLshare’s direct clients are the microfinance institutions
                                   and NGOs that sell solar home systems to rural consumers
                                   on microloans. Hence, SOLshare leverages existing distribu-
                                   tion channels instead of selling products or services directly
                                   to end users.
                                                                                                           Copyright: SolShare

                                                                                                                                                Figure 8. Interconnected solar home systems on Bangladeshi roof tops

26                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                27
3    Off-grid solar market and trends

3.3 Technology focus in EnDev countries                                                                                    DRC                        Ethiopia                          Mali                        Senegal                         Uganda

By 2019, EnDev had directly contributed to access to     as well as related parameters (distance to grid,       • Difficult to give exact     • EEU has 29 diesel           • Approx. 256 diesel          • 260 installed by 2018       • Less than 20 currently
electricity for close to 3.9m people through off-grid    density, accessibility etc.), known as a technolo-       figure                         mini-grids, all opera-        mini-grids implemen-           (83 operational)                 implemented (mostly
solutions (1.9m picoPV, 1.7m SHS and 0.3m mini-­         gy-agnostic, demand-based, or push approach.           • EnDev supported one           ting. 11 in the process of    ted, 150+ of which are        • 302 under construction         hydro)
grids), in addition to 1.5m people reached through                                                              • Developers mostly             being grid connected          being hybridised, and          (300 GAUFF; 2 ASER)           • New 40 implemented
grid and limited grid interventions.31 Table 3 on page   The fundamental advantage of a demand-based              target business/             • 5 micro-hydro power          80% of which are not          • 272 planned (Islamic           by GIZ Pro Mini-Grids
21 provides an overview of the technology focus of       approach is that the deployed technological solution     commercial customers           mini-grids by EnDev, of       operational                    Dev. Bank, PUDC, EU,             will be 100% solar
the countries interviewed for this guide.                matches the demand, and costs are optimised.                                            which 2 operational          • Mini-grids start working     Abu Dhabi Fund)               • k fW to implement 100
                                                         Instead of finding the right context for a specific                                   • Limited number of            when hybridised               • Some mini-grids                hybrid mini-grids
Interestingly, the EnDev program in Mali has devel-      technology (which is a time-intensive process), the                                     private mini-grids           • Very few soar mini-          starting to be intercon-
oped a novel approach that does not focus on the         right technology is picked for the targeted commu-                                    • Ministry of Water,           grids                          nected by SENELEC
deployable technology (e.g. picoPV or mini-grids) as     nity, saving substantial financial resources and                                        Irrigation and Energy        • One mini-grid suppor-       • 48 of the 87 mini-grids
the primary driver of which systems to implement.        efforts.                                                                                now implementing 37           ted by EnDev so far, a         implemented by EnDev
Instead, the decision on the optimal technology to                                                                                               mini-grids total              further 8 in develop-          still operational
be installed follows the evaluation of energy de-                                                                                                                              ment
                                                                       31 EnDev Progress Report 2019
mand in the particular community to be addressed
                                                                                                                Table 2. Mini-grids implemented in selected EnDev countries

Case Study: Greenlight Planet – Innovation in PicoPV
                                                                                                                            DRC                    Ethiopia                       Mali                      Senegal                             Uganda
Greenlight Planet, one of the world’s largest manufacturers and
distributors of picoPV and SHS products by number of customers,                                                 • Provision of technical • picoPV, SHS and           • Demand-based             • EnDev started as            • EnDev focus until 2024 on SHS,
has confirmed that “innovation in picoPV is not dead“. The compa-                                                 support to local            mini-grids                  focus, not technolo-         pioneer for ERIL in         some picoPV
ny develops a new range of picoPV (and SHS) products approxi-                                                     entrepreneurs and          • For picoPV and SHS,       gy-based                     2006 (18 hybrid            • EnDev strongly RBF-focused,
mately every two to three years, with the latest updates to the                                                   financing of                EnDev supports           • Currently mostly SHS         mini-grids and 55           large scale for HHs, smaller for
products having included the add-on of pay as you go modules,                                                     stand-alone systems         market (and                 with PUE                     communities with            refugees, social institutions
the inclusion of a radio in a solar lantern and regular improvements                                              for productive use          demand)                  • Focus on building            SHS from 2008-2010)         (schools/ health centres) and PUE
to the lamp’s performance while keeping price points stable.                                                      (20)                       • Planning to imple-        technical capacity       • Scaling by EnDev            • Technical assistance (coaching,
                                                                                                                • Facilitation of access     ment 8 solar             • Developing mini-             from 2010-2016 (69          enabling environment, associati-
Greenlight Planet is now intending to                                                                             to finance                  mini-grids with EU, to      grids for 2 villages         hybrid mini-grids and       ons, awareness)
further segment its customer base to                                                                            • Focus on island            be managed by               with high residential        144 SHS villages)          • COVID-19 Economic Relief Fund
enable the company to better target                                                                               (Idjwi)                     cooperatives                and PUE demand           • Consolidation and            for solar & cookstove companies
individual customers with products                                                                                                                                     • Also looking at              development of new          including covering payments
beyond picoPV and SHS. Whereas the                                                                                                                                        nano-grids                   solutions from              from PAYG customers for a
sale of solar products requires compa-                                                                                                                                                                 2016-2021, and focus        limited period.
nies to simply ‘cast a net’ over potential                                                                                                                                                             on sustainability          • RBF: ‘smaller for refugees and
customers, the sale of add-on prod-                                                                                                                                                                    challenge of existing       host communities’
ucts requires a more targeted ap-                                                                                                                                                                      systems                    • GIZ Pro Mini-Grids is installing 40
proach. Already, customers can up-                                                                                                                                                                 • 2021+ EnDev as               mini-grids (EU and BMZ financed)
grade from one SHS to another with                                                                                                                                                                     pioneer for „mini-grid • KfW implementing 100 mini-grids
the company’s dedicated ‘upgrade’                                                                                                                                                                      2.0“; Complimentary         under GetAccess (EU and BMZ
program. Further products such as pay                                                                                                                                                                  actions to strengthen       financed)
as you go phones are now starting to                                                                                                                                                                   market for stand-alo- • GIZ preparing a proposal to the
be marketed to customers.                                                                                                                                                                              ne systems and shift        Green Climate Fund for another
                                                                                                                                                                                                       to maintenance              600 mini-grids.
                                                                                                                                                                                                   • COVID Relief Fund for • Government is revising the
                                                                                                                                                                                                       lost revenues of            masterplan which will reflect
Figure 9 The Greenlight Planet’s ‘BOOM’, a                                                                                                                                                             mini-grid operators         mini-grids potential.
picoPV product with integrated radio
                                                                                                                Table 3. Focus of interventions by EnDev in the selected countries

28                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    29
3    Off-grid solar market and trends

3.4 Key market trends                                                                                                    3.4.2 Digitalisation
Seven key market trends have been identified that                                                                                                                                   the integration of smart meters also allowed the
are already shaping the off-grid sector and will                                                                                                                                    monitoring of customers. However, monitoring of
continue to do so in the future (refer to figure 16 on                                                                                                                              individual customers through smart meters is adding
page 40 for an overview).                                                                                                                                                           CAPEX costs as well as ongoing costs for data
                                                                                                                          Digitalisation in SHS is already far advanced and was     delivery and analysis. Therefore, some developers
                                                                                                                          initially developed out of the necessity of being able    continue to prefer traditional meters over smart
3.4.1 Productive use                                                                                                      to track and monitor systems as well as payments.         meters, relying on mobile money payments from
                                                                                                                          By digitalising SHS, companies have been able to          customers as a proxy to determine consumption.
                                                           The integration of PUE into SHS and mini-/nano-grid            allow customers to pay off products using mobile
                                                           programs is already well underway, including the               money, and remotely switch them off in case of a          With time, we are going to observe an increased
                                                           fostering of welding, freezing, milling and woodwork           payment default. Combined, these features resulted        application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine
                                                           activities. DC appliances have been developed for              in the “pay-as-you-go” revolution that has signifi-       learning in SHS, nano- and mini-grids, informing
The productive use of energy (PUE) is a strong             most of these activities, allowing productive use to           cantly accelerated the distribution of SHS. In spite of   generation assets when to use direct power from
enabler for moving households up the energy ladder.        also play an increasingly important role for SHS.              its strong growth in the last years, the “pay-as-you-     the sun, when to recharge and discharge batteries
While access to electricity per se can increase the        Interestingly, the wider inclusion of PUE into SHS/            go” approach must however still prove its success         and when to switch on diesel gensets (for hybrid
quality of life (through e.g. lighting at night) and       nano-grids is also increasing the incentives for               and profitability, given the large levels of indebtment   mini-grids). Artificial intelligence in SHS also allows
provide households with savings, it does not auto-         mini-grid developers to pilot new business models              that several pioneering companies have incurred, as       these companies to now offer products & services
matically imply an increase in household income.           (see Case Study 1 in page 26). Contrary to SHS/                well as a few bankruptcies in the sector (most            beyond electricity (see section 7.4.3 below).
Through the productive use of energy, access to            nano-grids, mini-grids’ main selling point has been            notably Mobisol). Incorporating digitalisation also
electricity is used to perform a value-added process,      to serve large productive loads. Nevertheless, in its          enables companies to locate SHS using GPS coordi-         With digitalisation, operating and maintaining
enabling the person with electricity access to provide     essence SHS/nano-grids and mini-grids remain                   nates, facilitating customer follow-up and potential      mini-grids becomes increasingly simple (and is
a product or service that can be sold in the commu-        complementary in the type of customer they are                 repossessions. Some of these features are also            justified in terms of increased up-front capital
nity. It is this additional income stream deriving from    each best placed to serve.                                     employed in picoPV systems, mostly to the extent          investment as long as operational expenditures are
the productive use of electricity that enables the                                                                        the products are financed on a pay-as-you-go basis.       sufficiently reduced and increased accuracy in
customer to increase its overall monthly budget for        EnDev has collected innovative approaches, trends                                                                        billing and mini-grid monitoring enable the operator
electricity expenditures, thus enabling a step up in       and learnings connected to PUE approaches in an                The digitalisation of nano- and mini-grids has            to optimize the system’s operation), allowing tradi-
the energy ladder. It should be noted that higher tier     analysis as part of its Learning & Innovation agenda.32        advanced slower than for SHS and is still ongoing for     tionally non-electrical industrial companies with
access is not in all cases more expensive than lower                                                                      many projects. Nano- and mini-grids have a limited        sound technical and financial management to also
tier access, and that payments for higher tier access                                                                     radius of delivery within specific locations that are     operate mini-grids.
differ significantly for payments for lower tiers (for                                                                    well-known to the developers, making customer
example, electricity from mini-/nano-grids is typically                                                                   follow-up easier than for SHS, which are far more
                                                                         32 https://endev.info/moving-to-scalable-busi-
sold per kWh while SHS are paid off on a monthly                                                                          scattered. Therefore, the pressure to digitalise
                                                                            ness-cases-in-productive-use-of-ener-
basis). However, the move from picoPV to SHS as well                        gy-endev-presents-practical-analysis/         operations early on was lower for nano- and mi-
as a move up the energy tiers within technologies                                                                         ni-grids than for SHS. The remote monitoring of
(e.g. from low to high consumption within nano-grids                                                                      mini-grids initially focused on the generation assets,
or mini-grids), usually implies additional expenditures.                                                                  with component suppliers also providing software
                                                                                                                          solutions and remote monitoring equipment togeth-
                                                                                                                          er with their products. Over time, mobile money and

30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        31
3    Off-grid solar market and trends

             Performance ratio

            Systems efficiency

                                        Potential production

                                        Energy curtailment

                                                      Battery status                                  Operational status

               kWh consumed

                                                                                                        Load behaviour

                                                                       Figure 10 Visualisation of applied digitalisation in mini-grids (EnDev, 2020)

32                                                                                                                                                     33
Figure 39
3    Off-grid solar market and trends
                                                                                                          Battery technologies used for installed mini-grids
                                                                                                                                       Annual
                                                                                                                                     Annual   installations
                                                                                                                                            installations                         Lithium-Ion (%  of new (% of new installations)
                                                                                                                                                                                               Lithium-Ion
                                                                                                                                        50                                                                        100%
3.4.3         Add-on Products & Service                                                                                                                                                               44

            Because SHS retailers are now able to        This trend of additional products and services is                              40                                                                        80%
            remotely deactivate products, and            accelerating across companies and markets, even-                                                                                 32
            customers are paying with mobile             tually leading to a situation in which some of the                             30                     28           28                                    60%
                                                                                                                                                 26
            money, some of the retailers are starting    SHS companies could become rural product distrib-
to use deployed SHS as a type of “collateral” for the    utors and service providers in their own right. The
                                                                                                                                        20                                                           32%          40%
purchase of new products or services. When pay-          focus of these companies will then not be on the
ment for the new products or services is not made in     provision of energy per se, but rather the establish-
time, the SHS retailer simply switches off the solar     ment and growth of a significant rural customer                                10                    14%          14%           28%                      20%
system, effectively leaving the customer in the dark     base that can act as off-takers for a large variety of                                  0%
until payment has been effected. Analysing and           products and services. The SHS companies will                                   0                                                                        0%
monitoring the data from SHS customers allows the        effectively become an interface between remote                                         2015          2016         2017          2018         2019
companies to determine who the best repaying             rural customers and broader national markets.                                          Lead-Acid                          Lithium-Ion
customers are and what additional products or                                                                                                   Other                              Lithium-Ion market share (%)
services they could be marketed to. Products and         Some nano-grid and mini-grid companies have also
services sold include mobile phones, LPG cooking         partnered with appliance suppliers (e.g. mobileSource: BloombergNEF, Carbon Trust,
                                                                                                                                  Figure     GIZ. Note:
                                                                                                                                         11. Annual      Only includes
                                                                                                                                                    installations        project
                                                                                                                                                                  of lead-acid   data
                                                                                                                                                                               and     where information
                                                                                                                                                                                   lithium-ion batteries inregarding
                                                                                                                                                                                                            mini-gridsinstalled battery technol-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (MGP, 2020)
                                                                                                        ogy is available.
stoves, microfinance loans, insurances and others.       phones, electric appliances) to bring their products
                                                         to communities covered by nano- and mini-grids to
                                                         enable customers to access high quality appliances,
                                                         in some cases with a financing model to enable
                                                                                                        Figure 40
                                                         affordability and faster acquisition.          Share of battery technologies used for installed mini-grids by region
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Case Study: BBOXX – Fee for Service
                                                                                                                                       Storage technology market share (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                   BBOXX, a UK-based self-declared ‘next generation
3.4.4 Battery innovation                                                                                                                              1%                            1%             utility’ that manufactures and distributes solar home
                                                                                                                                                                                                   systems to rural areas in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts
                                                                                                                                                  19%
                         The vast majority of SHS        In addition to first-hand lithium-ion batteries, the                                                                  29%                 of Asia, has in the past attempted to sell solar systems
                         companies has already           growing global electric vehicles market is opening                                                                                        to customers on a ‘fee for service’ basis. Customers
                         made the switch from            up the opportunity for recycling these batteries and                                                                                      would pay a monthly fee for an unlimited amount of
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Other
                         lead-acid to lithium-ion        utilisation of second-hand lithium-ion batteries by                                                                                       time for having a solar home system installed and
batteries. Conversely, the majority of mini-grids and    nano- and mini-grid developers, but also SHS and                                                                                                Lithium-Ion
                                                                                                                                                                                                   operated    within their home. Bboxx strongly believes in
some nano-grids are still installed with lead-acid       picoPV companies. It should however be considered                                        80%                                              a service   culture,
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Lead-Acid      however has improved their model by
                                                                                                                                                                               70%
batteries, considering their relatively lower up-front   that second-hand batteries have high energy                                                                                               providing a set of options to customers ranging from
costs. Nevertheless, the dropping costs as well as       densities which contribute to lower runaway tem-                                                                                          ownership, pay for repairs, and fee for service. The
physical and chemical properties of li-ion battery       peratures (battery banks should be kept under 45°C                                                                                        options are designed to provide the customer’s choice
banks, especially in terms of higher depths-of-dis-      during charging to avoid thermal runway). In con-                                                                                         and flexibility to continued after sales and service.
charge, longer cycle-lives and lower maintenance         trast, lithium-ion-phosphate batteries have much                                         Asia                Sub-Saharan Africa
requirements, are enabling the technology to             higher thermal runaway temperatures (180–250°C)                                                                                      Nowadays, BBOXX is starting to utilise the credit history
gradually become the new standard for application        and thus pose a clear advantage in this regard.      Source:
                                                                                                                 For BloombergNEF, Carbon Trust, GIZ. Note: 44 and 114 installed mini-grids with energy
                                                                                                                                                                                              from  solarstorage
                                                                                                                                                                                                          systemswere identified
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  to assess  the in Asiaworthiness
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 credit and        of
in nano- and mini-grids. Lithium-ion battery costs       an integrated, sustainable development, the entire   Sub-Saharan Africa, respectively.                                               customers to provide additional upgrades. The products
have been falling more than 8% year on year for the      recycling chain has to be supported in parallel in                                                                                   include electronic goods such as televisions, premium
last eight years,33 making them increasingly attrac-     order to set up political directives, technical stand-                                                                               TV bundles and phones which can be powered by
tive to nano- and mini-grid developers.                  ards, collection and recycling structures.                                                                                           Bboxx solar systems, but also cook stoves in line with
                                                                                                    63       STATE OF THE GLOBAL MINI-GRIDS MARKET REPORT 2020                                Bboxx’s new clean cooking service offer. Credit control is
                                                                                                                                                                                              managed by the ability to remotely turn off the solar
                                                                                                                                                                                              systems that customers already have. Further, BBOXX is
                                                                                                                                                                                              providing water pumps, and seeking to extend its
                                                                         33 https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-
                                                                                                                                                                                              value-added services to include insurances and microfi-
                                                                            scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/
                                                                                                                                                                                              nance products, and tied to the sale of solar home
                                                                                                                                                                                              systems. The company is utilising its own platform called
                                                                                                                                                                                              ‘PULSE’ to monitor and manage customer contracts and
                                                                                                                                                                       Copyright: BBOXX
                                                                                                                                                                                              relationships.
                                                                                                                                        Figure 12. BBOXX store in Katito, Kenia

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