Timeline 2030: Finding our path to prosperity - Fujitsu Global
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Timeline 2030:
Finding our path
to prosperity
Timeline 2030 | 1
Timeline 2030
Disruption has become the defining theme This is a well-trodden narrative. Doing business in a
world defined by disruption. But there is another side
experts to determine the prominent trends that are
likely to shape the world by 2030.
to this story, the human one.
of doing business in the 21st century. This is At Fujitsu, we talk a lot about ‘human-centric
We need to do so with our eyes open and ensure innovation’. This is realised by combining three key
happening at both a global level, via political that digital technology doesn’t lead to some people value drivers: the creativity of people, intelligence
racing ahead while others are left behind. We need derived from information and connectivity of things
turmoil and market volatility, and at an industrial to maintain an equilibrium between people and
technology so that everyone has the opportunity
and infrastructure.
one with technology transforming business to prosper. I believe that timely and co-ordinated action across
global governments, business, education and society
models, creating huge challenges and new Rapid technological change is causing enormous
shockwaves. It’s fundamentally disrupting the social
as a whole will ensure that, as technology advances,
we have the right leadership, skills and workforce to
fabric we’ve been used to for decades: the delicate, embrace and prosper from the next shift in history
opportunities in every market. fragile, interwoven relationships between the state, from the industrial to the digital paradigm. It all
citizens, civil society and business, and the way we depends on what kind of future we choose.
learn, work and communicate. We are only just at the
beginning of it.
Duncan Tait
We’ve already seen some of the early implications: it’s
SEVP and CEO of Fujitsu
enabled entirely new types of business to emerge; it’s
changed how media and information are consumed; Americas and EMEIA
it’s undermined faith in traditional institutions, cut out
middlemen and levelled hierarchies; it’s weakened
the link between labour, productivity and capital; it’s
rapidly making traditional skills out-dated.
Not surprisingly, people are struggling to catch up with
all of this.
That said, I believe that we are at a crossroads, where
we have the choice to take action now and use
technology to take us on a path to prosperity.
This is why we have created the following scenario
study, using some of the world’s best academics,
futurologists, commentators, business leaders and
Methodology Name Organisation
Volker Ziemann Economist, OECD
Ralf Gonenc Country Studies, OECD
Dr Tom Loya Strategy Director, University of Nottingham
These scenarios were developed by Trajectory, drawing
on the insight and knowledge of world-leading experts Michael Brennan Consultant, Profusion
in a range of fields. After a horizon scanning process Trajectory is an insight and forecasting consultancy.
that identified more than 50 trends that would shape Through established and innovative methods it helps Iain MacMillan Founder, RMM
the future, Trajectory consulted more than 20 experts organisations understand how markets, people and
from around the world who rated the trends and the world is changing. Professor Jane Vincen London School of Economics
analysed their future impact on humanity and society.
It’s work is thought provoking, often challenging Sean Geer Ex Wired Magazine Editor
These experts include representatives of global conventional wisdom about the world and the future.
institutions including the OECD, Pew Research Centre,
Professor Oriel Sullivan Sociologist, University of Oxford
the World Energy Council, the London School and The scenarios were created using a four-step process:
Economics and the University of Oxford. Based on
these ratings and consultations, Trajectory then Kumud Sengupta Founder, Market-Vision, Dubai
identified and developed the scenarios.
Richard Barkham Global Chief Economist, CBRE
Lee Rainie Director of Pew’s Internet, Science & Technology program
Harry Armstrong Head of Technology Futures, NESTA
Analysis of a broad range of trends to understand the drivers of
1 Horizon scanning technology demand, social change, business and globalisation,
as well as other key factors.
Output: long list of trends information
Ross Sleight Chief Strategy Officer, Somo
John Koldowski Asian Institute of Technology
2
Recruitment of a wide panel of experts to review the
Zulandi Van Der Westhuiszen Deputy Director, Scenarios & Resources, World Energy Council
Expert interviews trends and drivers.
Output: Experts approached, trends list circulated
Dr Joseph Reger CTO, Fujitsu
Olly Buston Founder, Future Advocacy
3
The trends rated for likelihood and impact by the
Scenario creation network of experts.
Zulandi Van Der Westhuiszen Deputy Director, Scenarios & Resources, World Energy Council
Outputs: development of a trends map
Katerina Elias Trostmann Analyst, World Resources Institute (Brazil)
4 Development Trends map analysed and scenarios identified Margaret Heffernan Entrepreneur and Writer
.
of outputs Output: scenarios and key trends identified
David Gentle Director of Foresight and Strategy, Fujitsu
4 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 5
The Trends
Our experts rated a total of 50 trends for certainty and impact,
leading to the creation of the below Trends Map.
Certainty
Ageing world
The world on line
Artificial Intelligence
Urbanisation continues
Personalised healthcare
Digihealth rolled out Robotics
Global issues ignored
Food for all Labour unrest Emerging markets drive globalisation
Geographical fragmentation
Sustainable world
Taxation rethink Intolorance rises Healthier for longer
Impact
Impact
Migration declines End of retirement
Digital Currencies
Universal basic income End of net neutrality
Smart cities
End of employment Capitalism challenged Digital citizenship
Digital divide
New era of protectionism
Internet regulation Hyper-personalisation
Car ownership ends Privacy concerns
Deregulated lives Trust erodes further
End of homeownership Autonomous working Play society
Personal data commodification
Pay gap disappears Death of distance
Touchless interfaces
Singularity arrives
Hybrid leisure
Universities decline
Smart Homes
End of the degree Business blamed for inequality
End of gender
Certainty
The trends were compiled based on a horizon scanning • Published academic and sector reports (e.g. The Trends Map is built upon two axes, certainty (x-axis) This map, combined with the interviews with the
exercise, using: Gartner, Harvard Business Review), wider reports and impact (y-axis). The further along the impact axis a experts led to the development of the following
and articles trend sits, the surer we can be that it will take hold. The scenarios: Road to Regression and Path to
• Proprietary Trajectory data and research further along the certainty axis a trend sits, the bigger Prosperity.
• Global datasets (e.g. World Bank Data, IMF World These were then broken down into themes – the impact it would make on the world.
Economic Outlook, Pew Global Issues, UN World encompassing technology, business, political, social,
Population Prospects and others) consumer and demographic trends.
6 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 7
While 50 trends were reviewed in developing Timeline An increase in the number and proportion of older Perpetual Learning Steadily increasing flexibility will afford individuals
2030, there were ten that stood out as having the most people will drive change across society, including greater control over what they do, when they do it
impact on our future. These were: changes to retirement, working lives and public As the life-course changes and the pace of innovation and how – with richer technology helping to erode the
services. Businesses must adapt to both an older accelerates, individuals will need to constantly upskill importance of proximity and driving the death
Automation workforce and older consumers. Although this trend is in order to remain employable. of distance.
occurring all over the world it will be most keenly felt in
Driven by advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced economies, where the number of retired-age Perpetual learning will change the role and nature of Internet Regulation
robotics, automation has the capacity to transform people will grow substantially. education and the employer-employee relationship. As
workplaces, economies and society. automation makes further inroads into ‘human’ jobs Multi-tier internet access will become the norm as
Urbanisation and the technology development continues apace, governments exert more control, ending the era of
The autonomy provided by increasingly sophisticated organisations – and governments – will need to invest restriction-free access for most of the
AI will see robotic capabilities increase drastically, with Half of the global population lives in cities and more in futureproofed skills and a continuous programme of world’s population.
less need for human supervision. In the short term, than one million people are moving to cities worldwide training.
more jobs in manufacturing and industry will be taken each week. The nature of this regulation is critical; an international
by machines, with more ‘white collar’ jobs (analytics, Digital Identity approach would lead to consistency and the evolution
legal clerks, customer service and retail) threatened in In many places this is an essential component of rising of common standards on privacy and data security,
the next 10-15 years. prosperity, as urban areas are more likely to provide As the proportion of people with internet access while a market by market approach would drive
access to clean water, technology, employment and increases, public services will become exclusively fragmentation and demand greater agility from
The World Online education. It also provides challenges in terms of digital, with interactions between citizen and state businesses, consumers and content providers.
housing, food systems and pollution. As the urban automatic and digitally mediated.
Over the next 15 years the number of individuals population grows, future cities will harness digital Food for All
around the world with access to the internet will technology to provide more efficient services to address Governments will be incentivised to invest in digital
increase. By 2030, this could reach 70% (from around these challenges. services through the potential for saving money, Growing prosperity will cause more affluent
45% today). This growth will be concentrated in although advanced economies will have to retrofit populations that crave more varied and high
emerging and developing economies. Globalisation digital services onto existing provision while emerging quality diets, which will threaten the current global
nations can leapfrog and design services around food system. This disruption carries huge risks –
Greater internet access results in the democratisation In the short and medium term, the spread of the latest technology. Digital identity will also enter from economic turmoil to political instability and
of information – and extends access to education, information, people and trade more easily across new territory, including biometric IDs and internet humanitarian crises.
enterprise, services and commerce, which ultimately international borders that has led to rapidly rising regulation.
drives greater prosperity. The speed of this growth prosperity in many parts of the world is under threat To counter this the world will embrace new political
and the nature of access depends on wider factors from a resurgence of nationalist economics Flexible Convenience and technological solutions. Robotics will help
including national and global economic growth and and protectionism. mass agricultural processes, including pollination
investment in infrastructure. The accelerating pace of digital change will reshape and milking, while vertical farming will concentrate
In this period, globalisation will continue to be individual lives as well as societies, workforces and vegetable growing in urban centres, resulting in year
Ageing embraced and driven by emerging economies. In the economies. Consumers will have access to new and round and locally sourced diets.
longer term, a second wave of globalisation will be richer forms of entertainment, and hybrid, mixed-
Rising life expectancy and falling fertility rates driven by advanced economies as the political mood reality technology will provide fresh opportunities for
will continue to cause a steady ageing of the changes once more. Ultimately, globalised economic entertainment and leisure.
global population. systems will continue to dominate over the next
15 years.
8 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 9
Timeline 2030:
The Path to Prosperity
A vision of our future
On the road to 2030, nascent technologies like robotics with forms of Universal Basic Income – help to shore
and AI will come to be commonplace, mixed reality up the core foundations of society as hundreds of
will reimagine the way that we interact with the world thousands of people transition roles.
around us and personal biotech will give us greater
control over our health and wellbeing than ever before. The impact of AI isn’t limited solely to industry,
however. Its impact is felt across services industries too
The full potential of these technologies will be driven – with careers like accountancy and law both seeing
in no small part by targeted and sustained investment largescale automation of repetitive activity. However,
into network infrastructure by governments around the businesses have invested in retraining workers with
world. As a result, internet access extends to more than new skills for new roles.
90% of the world’s population by 2030, connecting
even the most isolated parts of the globe. Major Machine learning also plays a major role in the
gains made in the 2020s help to boost the number development of Zero-UI technologies, with touchless
of highly educated people in emerging economies, interfaces redefining the way that we connect with
giving birth to a culture of cooperation and innovation. people and things. These inclusive, voice and gesture-
Technological advancement continues to accelerate as activated tools, while widely embraced, become
a result. particularly significant for impaired and older citizens.
In this new age of innovation, fields like AI and robotics Consumer technology as a whole becomes more
enjoy rapid progress. Machine intelligence continues personal and more heavily integrated with our daily
Technology: to fall short of our own, but ever-increasing levels of lives. The proliferation of augmented and virtual reality
sophistication combine with major breakthroughs in devices builds the foundation for a multitude of hybrid
Global connectivity creates a golden robotic engineering that make automation possible reality applications. Fundamentally changing the way
on a whole new scale. The manufacturing industry that we play, learn, shop, communicate and more, the
age of innovation. is transformed by the emergence of smart factories, perpetual integration of our digital and physical lives
where the only need for human interaction is in through mixed reality becomes normal.
maintenance
Technology has long been an engine and supervision. Even greater developments loom large on the horizon,
the field of biometrics taking a new turn as digital
for change, and advancements made In advanced markets, more than 90% of human implants become an impending reality. Even as the
labour in manufacturing comes to be replaced by ethical and legal debates about their implementation
in recent years are beginning to AI. And, before long, AI begins to play a key role in rages on, the world begins to contemplate an
administration, customer service, retail and accounting existence in which man and machine become one.
radically alter our potential future. too. Long aware that this change has been coming,
global governments react in advance to avert an
Although technology plays a leading employment crisis, focusing instead on programmes
role, it is people that are at the centre that provide outgoing workers with the new skills to
thrive in the digital world. Taxation reforms and new
of everything. approaches to welfare – including experimentation
10 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 11
Economy: prosperity reigns as Unfettered by the chains of economic nationalism, approaches to agriculture are insufficient. New Africa is now the last remaining continent with a larger
protectionism gives way to global markets continue to expand. Economies’ natural methods are needed, and technology once again rural than urban population.
global economics ability to find ways to replace and generate new source answers the call. Advanced markets capitalise on
of wealth creation sees a more prosperous world. the potential of vertical farming, bringing crops and A balance has been found between the public
While technology plays a major role in forging a path to produce closer to urban centres and minimising and private sectors. Centring their vision around
prosperity in 2030, it does so only by virtue of equally Emerging economies see particularly rapid rises in transport costs and emissions in the process. In people, businesses have stepped up to the plate of
momentous developments elsewhere. prosperity, benefiting as they do from better standards the Global South, greater connectivity allows for responsibility. With considerable power and influence,
of education and stronger, richer connections with the agricultural robotics to farm in previously unusable companies align business goals with the shared
A connected and collaborative world, one in which rest of the world. Advanced nations enjoy small but areas, and floating sea-platforms make use of goals of society, contributing to society, as well as the
progress and innovation can thrive, can only exist sustained improvements to living standards while, open water for crop production. Continued research economy. This fosters greater trust in business and
when local agendas are put aside. While protectionist across the globe, absolute poverty is all but eradicated. into the mass production of synthetic food delivers services, while creating a sustainable environment
and isolationist policies come to define the late promising results. for growth.
2010s, a renewed focus on global economics by world Society: a connected world works
leaders in the early 2020s paves the way for a more together to tackle the big issues This focus on farming is essential to meet the demands
cooperative and prosperous future. of a global population that will grow to 8.5bn by 2030.
As steady economic growth helps to create a more India, which becomes the world’s largest country in
This alignment of political views, focused as they are equitable world, many of the problems associated 2022, accounts for more than 15% of that figure alone,
on global collaboration, ensures that many nations with financial imbalance begin to recede. As an age with a population in excess of 1.5bn by 2028. China’s
are able to tackle the big questions together. Chief of global cooperation dawns, nations work together in populace remains stable at 1.4bn.
amongst those are the growing economic and social an attempt to conquer major issues related to society
implications of automation. As the Fourth Industrial
Revolution takes hold and hundreds of thousands of
and the growing global population. A future has been
realised where the relationships between workforces,
These dramatic gains are offset - albeit only slightly ‒
by changes elsewhere. Birth rates in Africa, Asia and
A connected and
jobs are threatened across the globe, many countries
implement radical new taxation policies, shifting
enterprises and society are interconnected. Latin America have fallen to more manageable levels,
while the population of some countries including collaborative world, one
In 2026, the G20 reacts to exponential technological Germany and Japan has actually begun to shrink. At
in which progress and
the burden away from labour and towards capital.
Revenues raised go towards arming workers affected growth by establishing a new body to shepherd and the same time, demographic trends that began in the
by automation with new skills, limiting unemployment govern the global response to digital issues. Its remit late 2000s continue to have an impact on advanced
and ensuring that the economy continues to grow. includes powers to enforce equality around regulation markets, as a growing contingent of older people innovation can thrive,
of the internet, as well as the development of a present an increasing strain on welfare and healthcare
The flight to automation has a profound positive
impact on businesses and the economies they operate
common approach to privacy and data security. This
body also leads the way on large moral and ethical
alike. By 2030, some 23% of people in advanced
markets are aged 65 or over.
can only exist when
in. With costs reduced as automation becomes more
efficient, reshoring becomes an increasingly viable
issues; cyber warfare and the growing implications of
the singularity are paramount concerns. The vast majority of people around the world now local agendas are
prospect. Wanting to reduce outlay on transportation live in urban areas, a factor that has helped to drive
and distribution, many organisations in Europe, North further prosperity in the Global South. Greater access put aside.
America and Japan opt to bring their production At an environmental level, a food crisis in 2022 ‒ to resources, technology infrastructure, sanitation and
centres back onto home territory. caused by severe drought in Australia and in Eastern jobs presents fertile ground for economic growth.
Africa in tandem with the rising price of exports
from the US ‒ provides ample warning that existing
12 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 13
Education: digital skills become While education has changed for young people and civic issues such as planning, forums and elections. Leisure: the death of distance revolutionises
a cornerstone of learning children, it has also changed for adults too. Living Many activities in the latter group are now managed our free time
longer lives and in a world that is faster and more exclusively online, greatly reducing costs.
As the 2020s progress, widespread recognition of a agile, people are investing in new skills, knowledge, By 2030, technology has advanced to the point at
future in which working life is dominated by technology relationships and networks to be ever-prepared for the With so much of the global population now living in which we no longer even need to travel in order to
prompts many nations to implement digital skills next career change. Lifelong learning is not a concept, urban areas, the concept of smart cities becomes ever enjoy many of our daily activities. Mixed reality devices
tuition into their national curricula. Starting from an but a reality that the vast majority of people live by. more vital to civic planning. Data-driven intelligence mean that physical proximity to work becomes almost
early age, these lessons are quickly seen as essential, helps cities determine the best strategies and irrelevant for the majority of white-collar workers, who
and come to be valued alongside literacy and Public services: digital citizenship brings measures for conserving energy, reducing congestion are able to conduct most of their business from home.
numeracy as a result. services to all in growing cities, limiting food waste, and more.
With leisure time on the rise, the same technology
The changing dynamics of the labour market ‒ in Just as at the start of the 21st century, population Existing cities are retooled to take better advantage is used to revolutionise social experiences. Friends
which digital skills are in increasing demand ‒ push growth ‒ particularly in countries with a large of digital tech, while new developments in emerging from different cities, countries even, can have dinner
many more young people into higher and further proportion of elderly citizens ‒ continues to put economies are designed to do so from day one. Free together using mixed reality devices. Consumers enjoy
education. Emerging economies see a particularly public services under pressure on the road to 2030. public Wi-Fi allows the provision of smart services to front row seats at huge sporting events or the latest
dramatic change in the number of enrolments, with The difference now, though, is that earlier efforts to citizens, while large-scale driverless car and smart blockbuster via virtual auditoriums and cinemas.
more than 50% of teenagers in China and India moving improve connectivity and infrastructure have enabled grid solutions help to regulate traffic, energy and Film, TV, music and gaming become fully immersive,
on to college, university or vocational training after many core services to be digitalised. This creates major emissions. With digitally driven cities and services, personalised experiences, played out in our living
leaving school. Global university rankings begin to efficiencies for public bodies and an engaging way for AI and robots have made everyday life more efficient rooms and overlayed upon the world around us.
change as a result, with four of the top ten now located citizens to manage their interactions with government. and more secure, taking on the vast majority of
in emerging markets (and three in China alone). Digital citizenship, an established standard in every menial tasks. The way we interact with that technology has changed
advanced nation, begins at birth. Newborns are forever, as well. While touchscreen interfaces still exist,
For those without the means to attend university on a issued with a digital ID number alongside their birth Healthcare is one of the areas most affected by the they are rapidly coming to be seen as outdated. Voice
three or four-year course, new ways of learning provide certificate, giving them a lifelong link to public services new era of digital connectivity. Telehealth becomes a and gestural recognition technologies are the new
them with alternative routes to study. Nanodegrees, that range from welfare and healthcare provision to widely accepted and popular way for doctors to treat standard, allowing us to interact with everything from
shorter, vocationally focused courses provide a cheaper patients, while biometric trackers help people with our homes to our cars without ever pushing a button.
way for students to achieve qualifications, while remote chronic and serious illnesses to understand, monitor The vast volumes of data generated by our possessions
learning makes smart use of technology to reduce and control their conditions. Older people, of whom provides us with new and engaging ways to track our
Lifelong learning is not
costs for others. At some institutions, more than half of there are an increasing number thanks to continual impact on the world around us, sparking a renewed
students opt for the latter. healthcare improvements, are provided with social interest in our personal environmental responsibility.
digital assistants that provide conversation and
As this next generation of students begins to graduate, a concept, but a reality companionship in order to help combat loneliness.
there are subtle alterations in the employer-employee
dynamic. Many choose to specialise in portfolio
careers, ones that play to their hobbies and interests
that the vast majority of
as much as they do pay the bills. Self-employment
becomes a common choice as technology continues to
people live by.
democratise the sale of goods and services.
14 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 15The People of 2030: The Road to Prosperity
Bianca, 31: Vincent, 28 : Michael, 73: Aadyha, 36:
A designer living in Sao Paulo, Brazil A mechanic in Lagos A retiree in Bridgend, Wales A developer in San Francisco, US
Living in a newly built smart home in the centre of Sao Paulo, Although he initially trained as a mechanic on the ‘old’ kind of cars Spending much of his life working in a local car manufacturing Aadyha’s decision to relocate from the UK to California when she
Bianca works as a designer and sells her artwork to customers all when he left school, Vincent jumped at the opportunity to retrain as plant, Michael quickly moved onto a role in a DIY store when his finished university was frowned upon by her family, worried as they
around the world. She began selling her prints at local markets a qualified engineer servicing Lagos’ growing network of driverless career came to an end due to the introduction of smart factories were about her moving to the US when intolerance seemed to be on
before moving on to wholesalers, but after setting up on an online cars. The world around him has been transformed since those early in 2021. While he was never particularly confident with new an upward trend. She found work as a developer almost immediately
store, Bianca found that she was able to sell to customers all days. The city has been growing wealthier, and its citizens too, due technology, heavy investment into healthcare ensured that he and settled happily into her new home. After starting a new Fintech
around the world. Now, she has begun to use mixed reality devices in no small part to widespread connectivity and major technology was given the time and support to get up to speed with his new business with three colleagues in 2023 she encountered enormous
to provide those customers with a clear idea of how her work will investment. Vincent is confident about the future and assured in his telehealth and self-monitoring devices. These help him to keep success and has been able to take advantage of the huge digital
look in their homes. Advances in localised automation also mean work; Lagos is continuing to expand outwards, which means more his hearing loss and diabetes under control, and provide him with leaps forward. Her home is smart enabled and communicates
that her designs can be printed cost-effectively in her customers’ people are using driverless cars to commute into central business regular check-ups with his doctor. Newly assured about his ability automatically with her connected car. She works exclusively from
home nations, reducing shipping costs. Excited about the future, zones. His biggest priority now is ensuring that his two children are to get to grips with technology, Michael has now embraced it as home, being an early adopter of the sophisticated MR technology
Bianca is exploring opportunities to become involved in the interior able to get access to the education opportunities that will allow a way of keeping in touch with friends and family and pursuing that is driving a burgeoning death of distance. Her life is always on
design aspect of Brazil’s burgeoning housing market. them to make the most of a heavily digitalised economy. his hobbies. her terms, and she has more flexibility and free time than before
starting the business.
The People of 2030: The Road to Regression
Bianca, 31: Vincent, 28 : Michael, 73: Aadyha, 36:
A designer living in Sao Paulo, Brazil A mechanic in Lagos A retiree in Bridgend, Wales A developer in San Francisco, US
Bianca runs a small design business from home, selling prints to Having trained to be a mechanic after leaving school at 16, Vincent Michael, who spent 40 years working at a car manufacturing Moving to California from the UK in 2018 after finishing university, Aadyha
local wholesalers and occasionally in person at markets nearby. worked mainly on traditional cars before looking into a training plant, was made redundant when the first wave of automation found her skills in high demand. After working for a start-up for several
The business provides her with a small income, but she is growing scheme for the city’s planned new fleet of driverless cars. When this took hold in 2021. With unemployment rising across the country, years she decided to go it alone, but has found self-employment hugely
increasingly jaded with its lack of progress. With the economic scheme failed to materialise and the food crisis of 2022 created a his search for a new job was to no avail. Today, Michael lives inconsistent, and she feels worse off now than 5 years ago. The need to
crash causing a huge fall in demand from overseas, her plans huge cost in the rise of living, Vincent’s regular work began to dry alone, and struggles with health issues including hearing loss constantly invest in training to keep up with the latest tech is a major
to sell prints online fell through. While she watches big retailers up. And, just as the region began to recover, a global economic and diabetes. While he was provided with a telehealth screen in drain on her financial resources and time. She feels she is failing to take
boosting their sales through technologies like VR and 3D printing, downturn put the brakes on Lagos’ nascent tourism industry. For 2028, his hearing issues make it difficult to use and he instead advantage of the huge strides forward in tech development, including new,
she knows that this is a route she can’t afford to pursue. With the past decade, Vincent has had to make do with an irregular and finds himself journeying to his local surgery on a monthly basis. sophisticated MR technologies, connected cars and smart homes. Aadyha is
two daughters to support, for the first time since she started her unreliable stream of work. Things have gotten better in the past Michael’s experiences with technology have made him resentful increasingly worried that she has missed her chance to progress and thinks
business, Bianca is considering retraining as a nurse or carer in few years, however, as hints of prosperity have emerged. Now, and pessimistic about the future. With unemployment now at 21%, that as the gulf widens, she will never be able to achieve the standard of
order to establish a more stable income. Vincent is focused on ensuring that his children are able to develop he plans to vote for a party with strong anti-automation policies in living she once expected to attain.
their digital skills to make the most of the growing technology the next election.
investment into the city.
16 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 17The Road to Regression
A vision of our future
Technology: By the end of that decade, breakthroughs in both With economies faltering due to an uncertain job This cycle quickly becomes self-perpetuating. As growth
fields begin to test the limits around what machines market, government plans to invest in critical network in these regions stalls due to their lack of connectivity,
The charge towards automation creates can achieve. While robots continue to lag behind infrastructure fall by the wayside. The rapid surge in investment money that would otherwise have gone
humans in terms of sheer dexterity, and the connectivity seen at the beginning of the 21st century, towards improving network infrastructure begins to dry
mass unemployment majority of AI systems boast limited functionality when global internet availability grew from just 10% in up. Investment that does go ahead is focused almost
and comprehension, their sophistication is such 2001 to 50% in 2015, comes to a grinding halt. exclusively on conurbations, creating a digital divide.
Many of the trends that come to define that wholesale industrial automation becomes a
tangible reality. By 2030, only 60% of the worldwide population is able
the world in 2030 can be traced back to get online, and even then access is highly regulated
At first, this development has little impact on human and uneven. Advanced economies enjoy relatively
much further. labour. Early smart factory prototypes constructed uninterrupted, high-speed access, but developing
in North America and Northern Europe in 2018 still nations find themselves particularly hard pressed. In
Early advances in robotics and AI require a large degree of human intervention to emerging nations, more than 2bn people are reliant
function successfully. As technology continues to on mobile internet alone, significantly undermining
during the 2010s, although seen advance, though, smart factories become increasingly commerce, education and entrepreneurship in
self-sufficient, resulting in a growing unemployment those areas.
as significant at the time, pale in crisis in advanced markets from 2024 onwards.
comparison to the rapid progress It is not just in manufacturing and manual jobs that AI
has substituted human workers. The services industries
made during the 2020s.
have severely been impacted too, including prestigious
professions such as law and medicine. Although AI is
not able to do everything, faster and more accurate
information processing and decision-making has seen
many human functions and jobs redundant, leaving
both skilled and unskilled people out of work.
With an eye on efficiencies and cost reductions,
organisations have failed to reallocate and retrain
people. An opportunity to drive new value has been
missed, as the world’s mindset around AI and humans
has not evolved to fulfil the potential of people. Even
with the insights and value that AI can help deliver,
where digital technology could have augmented, it
has simply replaced.
18 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 19Rural locations are left with low bandwidth or mobile of nations are now tracking at unemployment rates in Consumer affluence dwindles in unison with tax Eastern Africa and Australia alongside rising export
connections at best. excess of 20%. While manufacturing bears the initial receipts, leaving businesses with a shrinking market prices from the US. Rather than prompting a global
brunt of this turmoil, before long, roles in fields such at which to aim their products and services. This rethink of supply chains and agricultural planning, a
This drop-off in connectivity has a marked impact on as administration, customer service and retail, as confluence of factors eventually results in a credit reserved response sees token investments made into
innovation. Gains that were expected to materialise as well as traditionally high earning professions such as crunch, with many analysts warning of an impending vertical farming and synthetic food production, and
the Global South came online go unrealised, scuppered accountancy and insurance, also come under threat downturn on the scale of the 2008-09 crash. Living support for both remains scant. Food prices continue to
by limited access and a population that fails to benefit from automation. standards, already below early 21st century standards, rise as a result.
from advances in education and stronger links with the continue to flatline in the face of declining prosperity.
rest of the world. Many governments in advanced nations are caught International collaboration is further undermined
out; plans to help reskill and redeploy many of In emerging economies, the situation is not quite by widespread cyber warfare as nation states and
In spite of this, technology continues to advance, albeit these workers are eventually drawn up, but are as severe. While the impact of reshoring leads to affiliated and unaffiliated attackers launch assaults
at a slower rate than expected. Connected devices implemented too late to prevent immediate and a substantial decline in the customer service and on key infrastructure and services. The reaction to this
are radically enhanced by the evolution of touchless sustained disruption. Tax and welfare reforms, touted manufacturing industries in those nations, gaps in the by many countries is to strengthen their protections
interfaces, voice and gestural commands, providing as possible solutions, also stall at an early stage. labour market are partially filled by a slowly growing against intrusions. While some use this solely as a
consumers with whole new ways of interacting with technology sector. As is the case with advanced nations way of safeguarding critical systems, other nations
the world around them. Rapid iteration of virtual and New labour models begin to develop in these markets. though, jobs in this field are suited primarily to the introduce strict controls that effectively serve to
augmented reality devices also continues, creating At the top are a number of high-value, highly skilled highly skilled and many school leavers and graduates regulate the flow of information. With net neutrality
higher quality experiences and a much broader range roles. But further down, low-value, low skill jobs have are unable to find work commensurate with their level principles long since abandoned, the subsequent
of potential applications for this technology. The been automated. This leaves large portions of the of education. imbalance in access and data standards meets uneven
user base for these devices remains small, however, populations without security and few opportunities regulation head on to create numerous issues for
throttled by luxury-good level price points. to progress in their lives. There is a palpable sense Society: navel-gazing policies set business that operate internationally.
of resentment amongst people in these roles and nations adrift as challenges grow
Economy: global markets struggle as those who have been unable to find work in the As the decade rolls on, public dissatisfaction in many
unemployment grows post-automation crunch. Movements against the Businesses are not the only organisations looking economies begins to mount. Joblessness reaches
‘digitalisation of human jobs’ begin to spring up. inwards. The protectionist economic policies that took an all-time high, leading to political turmoil as anti-
The disruption caused by the automation economy is root in North America and Europe in the mid-2010s establishment challengers accrue support from a
not limited purely to industry. Long-standing dynamics At the upper end, competition for talent becomes ever continue to draw support from many quarters, leading populace disillusioned with the impact of technology.
of production are also upended, with a plethora of fiercer. Well aware that their skills are in high demand, nations to turn further away from globalisation. Proposed policies that range from taxes on robots to
international businesses choosing to reshore their many Gen Z and Millennial workers – disenchanted by a sweeping rollback on automation gain widespread
operations on home soil now that labour costs are corporations’ ability to match their demands – opt to Some national governments have focused on point support. Public services around the world are put under
no longer the primary concern. Many manufacturing, maximise their opportunities through self-employment scoring by criticising major international organisations. increasing strain by shrinking workforces and ageing
customer services and analytics operations are moved and portfolio careers. Public confidence in those bodies and the issues they populations.
back to advanced economies during the mid-to-late address begins to erode as a result.
2020s. This creates significant turmoil for developing Falling employment, as well as widespread resistance At a more local level, urbanisation has rocketed. There
nations, even the most of advanced of which are by businesses around higher rates of corporation tax, This prolonged isolationist approach to governance are now 41 megacities around the world, up from 28 in
heavily reliant on outsourcing as a source of revenue. results in dwindling tax revenues. Welfare provision is means that there is little in the way of global 2014. Many of these exist in emerging and developing
cut as a result, and the state pension begins at 70-75 collaboration, particularly around some of the bigger markets in Asia, South America and Africa. Despite the
An overall failure to perceive the implications of the in most countries. issues facing humanity. This is clear as early as 2022, potential of digital technology to create sustainable
Fourth Industrial Revolution means that the majority when a global food crisis is caused by drought in and liveable smart cities, many of these cities struggle
20 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 21to face up to the difficult challenges of congestion, With many digital services failing to take flight, the Leisure: short-term outlook and sharp drop locations. With an emerging consumer class breaking
increasing population, energy constraints, security of pressure on health and social care services in advanced in income sees leisure spend decline through in these nations, they quickly become an
food and water supply, and resilience to major events. markets becomes particularly intense. New digital appealing prospect, sheer population size outweighing
While home to huge populations of people, these applications such as telehealth, self-monitoring A lengthy economic downturn, which has already seen an uneven digital landscape. Infrastructure and
cities fail to provide the environment for individual and and social digital assistants are introduced into the a decline in living standards in advanced nations, investment spend is increasingly directed toward
collective prosperity. healthcare ecosystem, but they fail to find a foothold now begins to eat away at consumer spending and emerging nations.
with an older generation that has become suspicious leisure time. The ‘play society’, which saw consumers
Public services: digital disillusionment and mistrustful of technology. begin to prioritise leisure spending during the early
further squeezes already strained services and mid 2010s, is now a thing of the past. Uncertainty
Healthcare provision in most areas is adequate at best, reigns, and continued fear over job security creates a
With tax receipts falling, unemployment rising and and those that can afford it begin to flock towards widespread short-term mindset.
people living longer, public services are stretched private services, where the latest digital technology is
increasingly thin. The same digital solutions that used to provide a highly personalised and responsive Leisure spending falls as personal finances continue
have revolutionised business efficiency could have a service. Healthcare professionals and service leaders to tighten. Out-of-home entertainment becomes a
similarly profound impact on the public sector, but implore authorities to allocate funding in order to pastime reserved for those at the upper end of the
growing hostility towards ‘creeping’ digitalisation help alleviate the burden on the system, but with economic spectrum, while retailers struggle to sell new
means that many initiatives fall at the first hurdle. many treasuries already struggling to fulfil service technology and entertainment products due to pricing
Money spent on cloud and data experiments has obligations, little real change occurs. that is seen as prohibitive. The latest smart and mixed
been largely wasted due to poor implementation and reality devices are seen as luxury items, with few being
insufficient protection from external threats. In developing markets, where economic growth has able to afford to upgrade. Businesses that expected to
been less restricted, public service provision gradually be able to capitalise on content production for these
Public sentiment towards the concept of ‘digital begins to improve. With many of those services devices struggle to find investment as a result. Thrift
citizenship’ is particularly negative. Despite designed around new and emerging technology becomes the watchword for consumer spending.
impassioned attempts to bill it as a simple and
comprehensive way for citizens to keep track of their
however, shortfalls in connectivity and uneven internet
access prevent many from accessing them effectively. Personal data, one of the enduring themes of the early
With tax receipts
interactions with government, intensive regulation This growing digital divide limits high-quality digital
falling, unemployment
21st century, becomes a point of debate once again
of the internet prompts many to see the idea as little service provision solely to the most well connected as a small minority of savvy consumers embrace the
more than another way for governments to keep tabs urban areas. monetisation of their information. While many citizens
on their citizens. Privacy and trust have grown to be
even bigger themes, with citizens holding little faith
struggle to safeguard their information at even a basic rising and people
level, others sell their data – even that relating to
in government and public bodies to act responsibly.
In this world, a balance has not been struck between
healthcare and wellbeing – to the highest bidders. living longer, public
citizen convenience and freedom; privacy is a volatile
and seemingly unsolvable issue. This underlying lack
Technology companies, faced with a shrinking
market in advanced nations, shift their focus to the
services are stretched
of trust has seen plans to deliver efficiencies by taking comparatively affluent Global South. China, India,
everything from planning applications to election Brazil, Mexico and Nigeria are all seen as high-value increasingly thin.
hustings online go unrealised.
22 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 23Picking the right path
It isn’t just up to governments and the public sector and create brand new ways of working through
to lay the foundations for a prosperous future. Global automation and AI.
businesses can hold as much influence as individual
governments, so have a responsibility to those lives But if we move too quickly and replace workers on a
and economies they touch. large scale, we will see high levels of unemployment
and labour unrest. The knock on effect will result in
As business and government leaders, we must falling tax receipts, with a huge dependency on the
therefore collaborate to build a prosperous, balanced state to support those who have lost their jobs. We
future for people around the world. This means long- cannot allow this to happen.
term thinking and planning, as well as commitment
to ongoing discussions around transformative Instead, we must put people first. By taking a
mega-trends. responsible approach to adopting automation, we can
prevent widespread unemployment. This will drive
Reflecting on those trends in this report, and not economic growth, without leaving the labour market
discounting other influences, I have identified five fault shell-shocked. The resulting economic gains will
lines between these two scenarios that I feel require help deliver on wider global investment in emerging
action now. markets and innovation, creating a cycle of growth and
These powerful visions of development.
Automation
the future represent just This still means investing in key digital technologies
The transformative potential of technology is immense. now – including automation, connectivity, cloud, AI,
two of the many potential There is significant debate over the threat that AI and
automation pose to job security for people across
security and IoT – the building blocks of our digital
future. It still means transforming organisations to
realities we may find industries. Indeed, the scenarios bring to life the stark
realities of how good and bad the outcomes might
think and operate digitally, but also maintaining a
responsible, human-centric mindset. Working together
well be. with responsible partners, private and public sector
ourselves living in come organisations can chart the
There is no question that organisations must embrace right course.
2030. It is not simply a technology today, but if we are to reap the societal and
economic benefits technology presents, there are four The move to automation has already begun, so we
choice of one or the other, core areas we must address: speed of uptake, global must look at innovative approaches to easing the
investment, skills investment, impact it makes too. This includes taxation reforms
but a wakeup call around and mindset. and rethinking welfare. This includes making bold, but
considered experiments with Universal Basic Income,
the potential long-term Automation has the potential to change the world
in so many ways, from smart factories to automated
for example.
accountancy. We’ve seen our own customers drive huge At the same time, it is critical for businesses and
impact of the decisions we efficiencies, uncover valuable insights governments to invest in skills. Whether adoption is
rapid or steady, automation will see jobs lost.
make today.
24 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 25We must, therefore, prepare both those in education What does this actually look like? Predictive analysis is looking to address the labour deficit through build intelligent curriculums that empower the next
and in work for a new range of jobs. This area will be models give people the opportunity to take a automation and intelligent services. No easy task, but generation.
explored in more detail later in the report. more active role in their own health and behave one that quite rightly is being addressed now.
preventatively. An informed patient is better able to However, it’s not just STEM skills that we must focus on;
Finally, organisations must adopt a forward-thinking make decisions about what they want to do with their I urge business and government leaders to tackle these investments must be made in soft skills.
mindset that sees automation not as a way to cut lives. issues collectively. It is essential that business and
costs, but a way to free its workers to do more valuable societal goals are aligned in a constructive way. The European Commission’s report into The Future of
work. Inevitably, this means roles will change and Meanwhile, technologies like cloud and IoT can help Work notes that jobs requiring soft skills have grown
training will be vital. This reallocation of resource is connect the various elements of the healthcare puzzle Learning. Skills. Education. impressively and with consistent wage growth in recent
positive approach will see us find a complementary – people, clinicians, drugs, hospitals, and more. decades, and this trend will only strengthen. These
equilibrium between the analytical power of AI and the This helps build more personalised services that in It cannot be overemphasised how important these include emotional and psychological intelligence,
creativity of people. turn help make a bigger impact on each individual’s three symbiotic areas are to our future. We are now understanding people, social interactions and
life, while driving greater efficiencies for healthcare are at a critical point in history where fundamental relationships.
Healthcare and our ageing population providers. changes must be made to avoid mass unemployment,
failing industries and suffocated economies. Soft skills will not only drive value with specific jobs,
While some developing countries have a relatively Through our Kiduku project In Ireland, we’re already but will enable us to better collaborate, communicate
young population, at a wider level the world is ageing. seeing great progress with an IoT, where assisted There are key areas to focus on: science, technology, and co-create across the board.
This has major consequences for society, as older living is supported through enhanced monitoring, engineering and mathematics (STEM) skills, creative
people are the main recipients of public services, empowering older and disabled people to live more skills, and soft skills. Similarly, creativity, where minds are pushed to come
particularly healthcare. independent lives. up with new ideas and experiences, will be held up
We hear it every day, and for good reason; we must as uniquely powerful. We must foster our creativity
This is not an easy area to address, but investment At a diagnostic level, while medical professionals are emphasise digital skills. Technology will be the and develop new ways to encourage and value such
in healthcare is of the upmost importance. Get this great at asking the right questions, often AI can be platform on which public and private services sit. We thinking from a young age.
wrong, and we will fail to provision services to large better at answering those questions. Consider rapid need people to continue this journey, to build new
populations, with service structures and workforces and more accurate diagnoses provided by AI, as one services and products, to analyse data and to work We must foster these skills across digital, human
pushed to the point of collapse. example. Such work is already taking place on a with advanced robotics. and creativity.
smaller scale at San Carlos Clinical Hospital in Madrid,
Get this right, particularly with sensible investment Spain. This means ensuring digital skills are embedded in This is true across the world, which means access to
in technology-enabled health, and we can build the all learning stages. The White House’s report, Artificial education must be addressed too. We must ensure we
infrastructure and services to meet the needs of our We can also enhance treatment. Aside from more Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy, underlines deliver this efficiently and effectively. One key areas
older population. accurate diagnoses and treatments, technologies like this, noting, “For all students, coursework in STEM, will be the continued development of Massive Open
robotics can also deliver improvements. For example, and specifically in areas such as computer science, will Online Courses (MOOCs) in recent years. Provided
Data analytics, process automation and connectivity automated administration of treatment can be likely be especially relevant to work and citizenship in we can deliver on the connectivity to enable these,
are the key technology enablers. We must build and delivered as a patient’s condition changes in real-time. an increasingly AI-driven world.” education can be brought to a far larger group of
adopt predictive and preventative healthcare solutions individuals.
and invest in telehealth, including the infrastructure to There are implications for businesses too, which must To achieve this, we must work towards public and
support it. adapt to an older workforce and older consumers. In private partnership on an international scale to The final area that progress must be made in is
Japan, the working population is actually shrinking. perpetual learning. Surrounded by digital disruption,
Taking a long-term view, the Japanese government the need for new skills and services can appear at any
26 | Timeline 2030 Timeline 2030 | 27You can also read
