Trade-offs and synergies between human health and sustainability of Swiss dietary scenarios
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Trade-offs and synergies between human health and sustainability of Swiss dietary scenarios Christian Schader,, Anita Frehner, Adrian Muller, Carsten Nathani, Birgit Kopainsky, Alig Martina, Sabine Rohrmann, Christine Brombach, Julia Brandes, Matthias Stucki, Matthias Stolze LCAFood 2020, 14/10/2020
Aims of the project
1. Define and analyse scenarios for future healthy and
sustainable dietary patterns in Switzerland
2. Analyse how healthy dietary patterns support and/or
contradict sustainability in the Swiss food system
3. Derive target-group-specific recommendations for the
realisation of sustainable and healthy dietary patterns
22 January 2021 2
Project approach
WP2: Assessment of dietary WP3: Participatory definition
patterns and health impacts of interventions and scenarios
WP1: Project management
WP4 / WP 5: Model-based integrated analysis
NFP69-Phase 1 Model Global mass-flow model
Dynamic simulation model EE-IOM SOLm
WP5: Trade-offs and synergies of WP6: Dietary and policy
dietary patterns recommendations
22 January 2021 3
Identification of four dietary patterns in the Swiss
population on the basis of the menuCH study
Swiss traditional Western 1 - soft drinks and meat
n=744 (36.2%) n=383 (18.6%)
Non-alcoholic Non-alcoholic
beverages beverages
Alcoholicbeverages Others1 Alcoholicbeverages Others1
1 1
Cereals& starchy 0.5 Sauces& seasoning Cereals& starchy Sauces& seasoning
0.5
Red& processed 0 Red& processed 0
meat Savourysnacks meat Savourysnacks
-0.5 -0.5
-1 -1
Whitemeat Cakes Whitemeat Cakes
Fish Chocolate Fish Chocolate
Fruits& nuts Milk& dairy Fruits& nuts Milk& dairy
Vegetables Eggs Vegetables Eggs
Soups Addedfats Soups Addedfats
Western 2 - alcohol, meat and starchy Prudent
n=444 (21.6%) n=486 (23.6%)
Non-alcoholic Non-alcoholic
beverages beverages
Alcoholicbeverages Others1 Alcoholicbeverages Others1
1 1
Cereals& starchy Sauces& seasoning Cereals& starchy 0.5 Sauces& seasoning
0.5
Red& processed 0 Red& processed 0
meat Savourysnacks meat Savourysnacks
-0.5 -0.5
-1 -1
Whitemeat Cakes Whitemeat Cakes
Krieger et al.
Fish Chocolate Fish Chocolate
2019,
Nutrients
Fruits& nuts Milk& dairy Fruits& nuts Milk& dairy
Vegetables Eggs Vegetables Eggs 4
Soups Addedfats Krieger et al., in revision Soups AddedfatsImpacts of different food groups on health drivers and
disease promotors
Health Driver Disease Promoter
Decreases the risk to develop Chronic Diseases Increases the risk to develop Chronic Diseases
Food group CD Effect* Food group CD Effect*
T2DM + T2DM -
CVD + CVD -
Nuts & Seeds CHD + Processed Meat CHD -
Cancer + Stroke -
Cancer -
T2DM +
CVD + Alcohol
all 6 diseases -
Strong
Legumes & Beans
CHD + → heavy use
Cancer +
T2DM +
CVD +
Whole grains CHD +
Physical
Obesity + all 6 diseases -
Inactivity
Cancer +
Physical activity all 6 diseases +
T2DM -/0
CVD -/0
Fruits & CVD + Starches
CHD -
Vegetables Obesity + Refined Grains
Cancer -/0
Stroke -
T2DM -/0
Vegetable Oils CVD + CVD -/0
(depending on CHD + CHD -
SSB
processing Stroke + Cancer -/0
Medium
method; quality) Obesity + Stroke -
Cancer -
T2DM -
Fish
CVD + CVD -/0
(effects High-trans-fat
CHD + CHD -
depending on Food
Stroke + Cancer -/0
contamination)
Obesity -
CVD -/0
High-Sodium CHD -/0
Food Cancer -
Stroke -/0
5 diseases →
Weak
controversial
Dairy Products +/0/-
findings (except for
CHD)
22 January 2021 5Scenarios
Predefined consumption scenarios
• Reference scenario 2050
• Swiss Food Pyramid (SFP) 2050
• Sustainability / Feed No Food 2050
• Consumer preferences
Optimised consumption scenarios
• Aiming for the ideal: Minimise different environmental impacts
• Accounting for acceptability: Minimise the difference to the
reference scenario 2050 and to the SFP scenario 2050 while
fulfilling different environmental targets
22 January 2021 6Integrated Modelling Approach: Linking the three models
Predefined scenarios
• Input: explicit specifications for consumption patterns
• Output: economically motivated behaviour (according to decision structure in
SDM) of the agents leads to production structure of the agricultural sector
SDM
• Input: production structure of the agricultural sector (areas, animal numbers,
feeding rations, ...), explicit specifications for consumption patterns
• Output: environmental impacts from agricultural production in Switzerland and
SOLm in countries of origin of imported goods
• Input: production structure of the agricultural sector, detailed nutrient- and mass-
flows (to be aligned in detail), explicit specifications for consumption patterns
• Output: production structures of the other sectors, further environmental
EE-IOM impacts from agricultural production and the other sectors
22 January 2021 7Predefined consumption scenarios: nutrients
Minimum requirement for scenarios
DACH reference values (min(/max))
22 January 2021 8Health impacts (AHEI) of the predefined scenarios
22 January 2021 9GHG emissions compared to reference scenario
Swiss Food Pyramid (SFP) 2050 Sustainability / Feed No Food 2050
22 January 2021 10Household expenditure compared to reference scenario
Swiss Food Pyramid (SFP) 2050 Sustainability / Feed No Food 2050
22 January 2021 11Gross value added compared to reference scenario
Swiss Food Pyramid (SFP) 2050 Sustainability / Feed No Food 2050
22 January 2021 12Social hotspot index compared to reference scenario
Swiss Food Pyramid (SFP) 2050 Sustainability / Feed No Food 2050
22 January 2021 13Health and environmental impacts of current
consumption (menuCH)
Health impacts (AHEI-2010)
and greenhouse gas
emissions per observation
Health + Health + of the menuCH-dataset
Environment + Environment -
(points)
Means of the four
clusters (Krieger et
al. 2018)
Health -
Interpretation:
Health -
Environment + Environment - - → poor performance
+ → good performance
22 January 2021 14Overview of trade-offs and synergies of the
SwissFoodPyramid and the FeedNoFood Scenario
22 January 2021 15Conclusions – Public Policy
• Potential to use synergies between health and sustainability compared to
the average Swiss diet
• At a certain point of optimisation, trade-offs become increasingly relevant
• Harmonize health policy and agricultural policy => Food policy:
• Reduce the incentives for sugar production
• Reduce incentives for meat production (especially for meat which is not a co-
product to dairy production)
• Adjust the level of recommended dairy products (i.e. reduce this level)
• Provide incentives for retailers to promote healthy/sustainable products
• Consider taxation of specific foods of which the consumption induces negative
externalities with respect to health. (e.g. high sugar contents). Also positive financial
incentives could be effective (e.g. adapted VAT levels).
• Consider taxation of specific inputs/practices to increase sustainability in
production (e.g. a tax on external nitrogen sources).
• Targeting at a Feed No Food Scenario would require a sophisticated policy mix (e.g.
to avoid expansion of temporary meadows, promote suitable breeds for changed
feeding rations, …).
22 January 2021 16You can also read
