TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION - The Search for a Transformative Politics - Working Paper No. 11 - Rosa Luxemburg ...
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Working Paper No. 11
TRADE UNIONS AND
JUST TRANSITION
The Search for a Transformative Politics
Table of Contents
Trade Unions and Just Transition
The Search for a Transformative Politics.....................................................................................1
By Sean Sweeney and John Treat
Part One: The Road to Paris ...........................................................................................................6
Part Two: The “Net-Zero” Challenge.............................................................................................11
Part Three: The Social Dialogue Approach ...............................................................................18
Part Four: A Social Power Approach..........................................................................................30
Conclusion.......................................................................................................................................42
Published by Trade Unions for Energy Democracy (TUED), in cooperation with the Rosa Luxemburg
Stiftung—New York Office and the Murphy Institute at the City University of New York, April 2018.
Edited by Ethan Earle.
With support from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).
Cover image: Stephen Yang / The Solutions Project (CC BY 2.0).
Disclaimer: This paper represents the views of its contributing authors. The opinions expressed here
may or may not be consistent with the policies and positions of unions participating in TUED. The
paper is offered for discussion and debate.
Trade Unions for Energy Democracy (TUED) is a global, multi-sector initiative to advance democratic
direction and control of energy in a way that promotes solutions to the climate crisis, energy
poverty, the degradation of both land and people, and responds to the attacks on workers’ rights
and protections.
unionsforenergydemocracy.org
Trade Unions and Just Transition
The Search for a Transformative Politics
By Sean Sweeney and John Treat
In late 2015, after more than a decade of te- As the call for a Just Transition has become both
nacious lobbying of government negotiators, more urgent and more widespread, the pursuit
union representatives led by the International of Just Transition initiatives and policies has in-
Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) succeeded tensified. This has taken various forms. For ex-
in getting the phrase “Just Transition” into the ample, unions have tried to ensure that some of
preamble to the Paris Climate Agreement ne- the revenues from emissions trading schemes
gotiated at COP21.1 The text affirmed “the im- be used to create “Just Transition Funds.”3 Cur-
peratives of a just transition of the workforce rently, unions in several countries are calling for
and the creation of decent work and quality regional and national governments to include
jobs in accordance with nationally defined de- mandates and provisions for Just Transition in
velopment priorities.” 2 climate legislation prompted by “Nationally De-
termined Contributions” (NDCs), or simply “Na-
More than two years have passed since COP21, tional Contributions,” that lie at the center of
and calls for a Just Transition have emerged the Paris Agreement. In at least one instance,
from all corners of the global progressive unions are calling for establishment of a “Just
community. Once more or less exclusively a Transition Commission.”4 In the US, robust Just
trade union priority, calls for a Just Transition Transition measures have been included in leg-
increasingly appear, in varying forms, in the islation introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders
campaigns of major environmental organi- and others. In one known instance in South Af-
zations, climate justice and green NGOs, and rica, some unions have gone so far as to call for
indigenous and farmers’ movements. How- a national strike for Just Transition to protect
ever unevenly, Just Transition has started to the livelihoods of workers in coal-fired power
feature in discussions around national politics stations, 40,000 of whom risk losing their jobs
and policy, and unions increasingly refer to as a result of the national government’s policy
the current period as Just Transition’s “imple- to promote renewable energy via privatization.5
mentation phase.”
Despite these efforts, the search for actual ex-
amples of Just Transition at the workplace or
Just Transition, Where Are You? policy level can be a frustrating undertaking.
Scholarly and union-centered research thus
Given the growing interest in Just Transition far has produced some useful data in terms
among trade unions and their allies, and the of workplace and community-based process-
different ways in which the term is used, it is es and outcomes.6 However, these tend to be
timely to reflect on what Just Transition is, what exceptions that merely draw attention to the
it is not, and what it can and should become. rule—a rule marked by the distinctly unjust
This paper aims to make a contribution to that norms that have come to define “work” for the
discussion. vast majority of the global working class. For
1
TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
every example of progress towards Just Transi- that, in order to address climate instability and
tion that seems at all plausible, there are count- its consequences, serious social and economic
less others suggesting that things are moving changes will be necessary—changes that will
in the opposite direction. Similarly, while there need to be both rapid and radical, if there is to
are instances of successful efforts to promote be any serious attempt both to mitigate the im-
labor market or welfare protections for certain pact of emissions (to minimize further damage
categories of workers, these are also strikingly to the earth’s climate systems), and to help com-
exceptional. In some instances, union members munities adapt to the consequences of warm-
have reacted with frustration or even anger ing that is already “locked in” (from emissions
when the phrase “just transition” is used, fully already released). This shift in usage reflects an
aware that, while the concept of Just Transition increasingly clear and explicit recognition that
may by useful in theory, it is far removed from transitioning to a sustainable future society will
the harsh day-to-day realities facing workers in involve a deep transformation of the current one.
many parts of the world.
Union debates at the global level have not al-
ways paid close attention to the differences
Two Transitions: “Worker Focused” between these two very different meanings,
and Societal Shift and for this reason many trade unionists may
not immediately appreciate the implications of
This paper will not attempt to collect and collate these differences. While this is understandable
examples of Just Transition experiences; others to some degree, it is important to put these dif-
have attempted to do so, with mixed results. In- ferences and their implications clearly in focus.
stead, we will consider what unions mean by Just By doing so, we can actually open the door to
Transition, how that meaning has changed over a broader and much-needed discussion about
time, and how these different meanings have both the nature of the challenges the climate cri-
shaped strategic decision, especially in terms of sis poses for workers, and the role and capacity
approaching or selecting allies and partners. of organized labor and other social movements
to help bring about the kinds of changes that
It is important to note that the term Just Tran- are required to address them.
sition is currently used, sometimes quite loose-
ly, to refer to very different kinds of transition.
Most frequently, the term is used to highlight The Need for an Integrated and Trans-
concerns about the likely impacts of climate formative Politics
and environmental policies on specific catego-
ries of workers (say, in a coal-fired power station Unions for the most part understand that they
that faces closure), or—in the case of the Paris must strive to develop a Just Transition politics
Agreement—“the workforce” as a whole. In this that somehow addresses the concerns of the
paper, we will refer to this meaning of Just Tran- here-and-now (worker-focused transitions) in
sition as “worker-focused.” ways that also keep the need for a transition of
the entire economy in the forefront (socioeco-
Increasingly, however, the term “Just Transition” nomic transformation). This is because a transi-
is used to describe a broader and deeper socio- tion that is “just” from the perspective of workers
economic transformation—a societal shift to a “a or “the workforce,” but which fails to advance or
sustainable, low-carbon economy,” or “a zero help achieve the needed socioeconomic trans-
carbon world” over a period of several decades. formation, will ultimately achieve little in the
With this broader usage, it is acknowledged light of climate-related and broader ecological
2
TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
concerns. Alternatively, policies aimed at driving However, as we explain below, by insisting on
a socioeconomic transformation that are (poten- keeping “Social Dialogue” at the center of dis-
tially) robust enough to achieve climate and envi- cussions about Just Transition, many unions
ronmental targets (such as those adopted in the working at the international level effectively
Paris Agreement), but which ignore the impact endorse the main premises and perpetuate
on workers in specific locations or industries, risk the main approach of the liberal business es-
being unable to secure the kind of social and po- tablishment, of UN agencies like UNEP, of main-
litical support from workers that such a transfor- stream, “big green” NGOs, and of market-fo-
mation will need in order to be successful. cused think tanks and initiatives associated
with figures like Nicholas Stern and Richard
For the most part, unions have concerned Branson. We will argue that, intentionally or
themselves with the impact of climate policy not, this insistence holds trade union debates
on workers, whether “negative” (in terms of job and priorities captive to a very narrow and de-
losses in carbon-intensive or carbon-dependent mobilizing interpretation of Just Transition.
sectors) or “positive” (in terms of “green jobs”).
As representatives of tens of millions of mem- In the pages that follow, we make a trade union
bers—and currently as the chief representatives case for a different approach—one that can ad-
of the working class—it has made perfect sense dress worker-focused concerns while advanc-
for unions to focus on bringing the voice and ing the deeper socioeconomic transformation
concerns of workers into the United Nations that is widely recognized to be necessary. In
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN- order to distinguish it from “Social Dialogue,”
FCCC) and other multilateral spaces. In so do- we call this the “Social Power” approach.
ing, unions quickly and quite naturally moved
beyond a narrow, “safety net,” worker-focused The need for such a different approach is
view of Just Transition, to lending their support grounded in several realities. Firstly, the com-
to calls for the kinds of broader socioeconomic mitment to an approach to a Just Transition
changes that will be needed to achieve a genu- grounded in Social Dialogue effectively in-
inely sustainable, low-carbon future. This shift is volves an explicit (and non-negotiable) accep-
perfectly understandable and appropriate—but tance of restrictions on its pursuit—restric-
it demands deeper reflection, if its implications tions that are ideological in nature and cannot
are to be fully understood, embraced, and deci- be justified in light of well-known history.
sively acted upon.
Secondly, when the nature of the required soci-
etal transformation is taken seriously, it clearly
“Social Power” or “Social Dialogue”? implies a deep restructuring of the global po-
litical economy. Social Dialogue is simply not
We will argue in this paper that, in order to ef- equipped to help deliver such a transforma-
fectively pursue these connected demands—for tion, because it rejects any serious challenge
worker-focused transition and for socioeco- to current arrangements of power, ownership
nomic transformation—the international trade and profit, opting instead to draw comfort
union movement must collectively formulate from uncritical endorsement of “win-win” solu-
and then pursue a comprehensive, integrated tions and “green growth” for all.
approach.
Thirdly, an alternative, “Social Power” approach
For the ITUC, a broad socioeconomic transfor- is already cohering around a set of principles
mation is recognized as urgently necessary. and premises drawn from both old and new
3TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
thinking about the causes and implications of of the global political economy, it is extremely
the current socio-ecological crisis and how it can unlikely to occur.
be addressed. This approach can be deployed
perfectly well within established processes and Why, then, does the idea persist that the tran-
institutions of Social Dialogue, but it also seeks sition to a low-carbon economy is “inevitable”?
to push trade unionism into a more conscious- For some unions, an important reason may be
ly radical and hopeful space. We believe this the idea’s ideological content: by supporting the
emerging “Social Power” approach is already in “green growth” agenda, certain unions can stay
the ascendency across the trade union move- on familiar territory, and in so doing hope to
ment, and is increasingly finding common breathe new life into the Social Dialogue narra-
cause with, and being reinforced by, the energy tive. On this view, a redoubled effort to get the
and creativity of major social movements that “social partners” to commit to Social Dialogue
share similar perspectives and goals. can set in motion a new phase of (“managed”)
capital accumulation—so-called “inclusive green
growth.”
The Transition Is NOT “Inevitable”—
In Fact, It’s Not Even Happening As we document below, this largely uncritical
approach to the dominant “green growth” agen-
Here it is important to draw attention to one da is increasingly being called into question, as
of the most important differences between is the capacity of the mechanisms of Social Di-
the Social Dialogue approach and the emerg- alogue to protect—let alone advance—the in-
ing Social Power approach. In keeping with the terests of workers, either in the near or longer
dominant “green growth” policy discourse of term.
the past 10 or 15 years, proponents of Social
Dialogue have often talked and acted as if the
success of the transition depends merely on Broadening and Deepening the Just
sufficient “political will” or “ambition.” On oth- Transition Debate
er occasions, it is either stated or implied that
the transition to a low-carbon economy is “in- But pointing to the limitations of Social Dia-
evitable,” or even “well under way.” 7 But there logue and its association with the faltering
is seldom any explanation offered for the lack “green growth” approach does not alone gen-
of ambition and political will that has charac- erate an effective alternative. Developing such
terized almost twenty years of negotiations at an alternative is the collective responsibility of
the global level, and frequently at national and the international trade union community and
regional levels as well. Statements that sug- its allies.
gest the transition is “inevitable” are especially
remarkable given that, if anything, key trends The effort to develop and articulate a bold and
are going in the opposite direction: more fos- expansive “economy-wide” vision of what is
sil fuels are entering the global energy system, possible and necessary for a Just Transition—a
more pollution and more emissions are being vision that integrates immediate worker con-
released, climate instability is increasing, and cerns with the drive for a broader and deep-
the degradation of ecosystems is accelerating. er socioeconomic transformation—can inject
The approach to Just Transition articulated in fresh urgency into debates both within the
this paper takes the view that the transition to international trade union movement, and be-
a low carbon economy is emphatically not in- tween unions and their allies in other social
evitable; in fact, without a radical restructuring movements.
4TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
In this way, the pursuit of a Just Transition ical background and evolution, particularly in
could also serve as an energizing focal point the context of the UNFCCC.
for organizing and mobilizing, both inside the
formal trade union movement and beyond it, The second goal is to situate debates on Just
to a wide range of crucial allies and broader Transition with respect to what actually needs
social forces. The arguments presented here to be done to reduce emissions to the levels
are intended to make a positive contribution to considered necessary by the scientific consen-
that vitally important task. sus and reflected, however imperfectly, in the
Paris Agreement. The changes necessary to
achieve this transformation are dramatic, and
Just Transition and the Global South will affect virtually every aspect of life.
It is also necessary at the outset to explain The third goal is to trace the history of the “So-
why this paper focuses so heavily on debates cial Dialogue” approach to Just Transition, and
around Just Transition in the global North, and to situate this in its political context, in order
Europe in particular. Simply put, the perspec- to provide unions with a clearer understanding
tives of trade union organizations centered in of its potential and its limitations for advancing
the global North continue to frame many of the workers’ rights and protections, and for guiding
most important debates within the global trade debate and action on Just Transition.
union movement, including debates around Just
Transition. As we will show at length, the dom- The fourth goal of the paper is to document the
inant narrative regarding Just Transition con- relatively recent emergence of a more radical
tinues to be framed within—and constrained trade union approach to Just Transition, which
by—the experience of the post-WWII European for convenience we will call the Social Power
context, and this is impeding a necessary and approach. As we explain below, Social Power
urgent consideration of how the international is not presented as an “either/or” alternative to
trade union movement can and must organize the practice of Social Dialogue. While the latter
and orient itself in order to advance the inter- has the potential to produce more positive out-
ests of the global South, as well as workers and comes, unions will continue to make the best of
others in the global North. what is available. But many unions realize that a
more diverse and audacious approach is need-
In the concluding section, we will return to of- ed—one built around a transformative agenda.
fer some reflections on how the struggle for
Just Transition in the global South may best be The Social Power approach is guided by the
advanced within the international trade union belief that a Just Transition cannot be accom-
movement. We hope that in doing so, we will plished without a deep restructuring of the
have made a worthwhile contribution towards global political economy. It is guided by the be-
clearing away some of the persistent distrac- lief that current power relations must be chal-
tions and diversions from this important task. lenged and changed. If this does not occur, then
the vast majority of the world’s working people
will never see anything vaguely resembling a
Goals and Structure Just Transition.
This paper has four goals. The first goal is to The enormity of this task, combined with the
help unions and their allies who may be new to unimaginable consequences of failure, must
the Just Transition debate understand its polit- define the political goals that unions and their
5TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
allies embrace and pursue. This does not entail working papers, and therefore only a brief sum-
neglecting workers’ existing concerns and strug- mary will be presented here. As ITUC General
gles, but it does require that those struggles be Secretary Sharan Burrow recently expressed it,
integrated into a transformative politics an- “We understand that the sectorial and econom-
chored in the expansion of democratic control ic transformation that faces us [is] the fastest
over key economic sectors, the re-assertion of and deepest we have faced at any time in our
a robust understanding of the public good, and history and with a faster time frame.”8
an ambitious, movement-building approach.
In Part Three, we discuss the Social Dialogue ap-
These goals are approached across four sec- proach to Just Transition that is currently pro-
tions. In Part One, we will provide a brief sum- moted by the ITUC, the ITUC’s Just Transition
mary of the history of Just Transition as a trade Center (JTC), and the ILO. We explore the as-
union demand. This will include a concise ac- sumptions that anchor the Social Dialogue ap-
count of the effort waged by unions to incor- proach, and how the politics of Social Dialogue
porate Just Transition into what would become have changed over the past several decades in
the Paris Agreement, but which for a number of the wake of the unrelenting and systematic at-
years was referred to as the “post-Kyoto Agree- tacks on unions’ very existence, which flow from
ment.” This agreement was expected to emerge the ongoing neoliberal push to further liberal-
from COP15 in Copenhagen in late 2009, but ize, privatize, and deregulate the economy.
the talks produced the “Copenhagen Accord”
and paved the way for a voluntary non-binding In Part Four, we discuss the emergence of a So-
agreement that was adopted in Paris at the end cial Power approach to Just Transition. We in-
of 2015 and ratified in 2016. tentionally use the term Social Power in a provi-
sional and flexible manner, in part because few
In Part Two, we discuss the broad dimensions in the trade union movement would dispute
of the transition that is needed and, important- the fact that unions need more social power,
ly, how little progress has been made so far. In and some are confident that social dialogue is
fact, the reverse is true: the transition becomes a form of social power. We argue, however, that
more elusive and more formidable with each an important means of achieving more social
passing year. Emissions and pollution levels power is to fight for solutions to the social and
continue to rise, energy consumption remains ecological crisis that are commensurate to the
on an upward path, and temperature thresh- severity of that crisis, and that this will entail the
olds grow closer and closer to being breached. expansion of public ownership of key economic
This argument has been made in other TUED sectors and institutions.
Part One: The Road to Paris
In Part One, we provide a brief summary of the This history is important because it reveals the
history of Just Transition as a trade union de- commitment shown by unions to Just Transition
mand, focusing on the effort waged by unions over the course of more than a decade, as well
to incorporate Just Transition into what was as the effort expended by government repre-
to become the Paris Agreement on climate sentatives to keep any reference to workers or
change. the workforce out of the negotiating text.
6TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
But this account also shows how Just Transition agreements or policy, Mazzocchi argued, then
evolved from a specific, worker-focused “safe- workers and their unions would be willing to
ty net” provision to the point where it becomes embrace rather than resist changes of this na-
intertwined with a broader, “green growth” and ture. Before “green jobs” became a widely used
jobs-focused agenda. This narrative frames the term, Mazzocchi argued that environmental
(allegedly inevitable) transition as one that will protection could create jobs—and these new
create plenty of jobs, generate perpetual “in- jobs could become part of a broader societal
clusive” growth, and anchor a utopian vision of approach to Just Transition. In 1997, OCAW ad-
“sustainable development.” On this view, the opted a resolution explicitly calling for a “Just
transition would usher in a new form of “man- Transition.” Three years later, the Canadian La-
aged capitalism,” where governments would bour Congress (CLC)—to which OCAW was af-
administer robust “polluter pays” measures and filiated—adopted an entire program of action
offer incentives to the emerging green business on the subject.
community. For many unions, this vision of-
fered the hope of breathing new life into Social It is important to note that Mazzocchi saw Just
Dialogue, Social Partnership, and “Tripartism.” Transition not simply as a “safety net” provi-
We return to discuss the significance of this in sion, but as a means of raising larger questions
more depth in Part Three below. about economic decisions and priorities, in or-
der to help workers imagine a different future;
he also saw trade unionism as a social move-
Tony Mazzocchi and the Origins of ment that should stand on clear principles.
Just Transition Mazzocchi was often attacked by other union
leaders for his anti-war politics and his criti-
The term Just Transition has roots in the US la- cism of the oil and nuclear industries (among
bor movement—specifically, in the efforts of other things). In his words:
the Oil Chemical and Atomic Workers Union
(OCAW; now part of the United Steelworkers) I have been accused of being a militant. I think
that’s a sad reflection of where we are. I thought
to negotiate a “Superfund for Workers” when
we would wear proudly the fact that we are mil-
the 14,000-acre (5,670 hectare) Ciba-Gei- itant. I don’t intend to bow before any… unjust
gy chemical facility in New Jersey was closed company, unjust government or tyranny in any
down in the mid-1980s after its toxic footprint form; that’s my role to the last breath of my life.
attracted opposition from environmental That’s what trade unionism is all about.9
groups and government officials. More than
merely income protection for the plant’s 650
workers, the union also sought a program of The International Trade Union Move-
government-funded retraining for those dis- ment Adopts Just Transition
placed by the closure.
Since its launch in 2006, the International Trade
OCAW President Anthony “Tony” Mazzocchi Union Confederation (ITUC) has taken the lead in
used the term Just Transition to capture the ba- framing global labor’s approach to climate pro-
sic idea that if workers’ jobs were threatened by tection and environmental issues more broadly.
policy changes—for environmental protection Prior to that, the International Confederation of
or disarmament, for instance—those workers Free Trade Unions (ICFTU) had been the princi-
should be protected from, or compensated for, pal body of the global trade union movement
any negative consequences. If the Just Tran- since the early 1990s and the collapse of the for-
sition concept were ever turned into binding mer Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc.
7TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
During the 1990s, unions at the international of greenhouse gases. These richer countries,
level began to adopt and use the term Just Tran- known under the UNFCCC as “Annex 1 Parties,”
sition in the context of UN meetings around committed themselves to reducing their col-
the Commission on Sustainable Development lective emissions by at least 5.2% below 1990
(or CSD, formed after the 1992 Rio Conference levels by 2012.
or “Earth Summit”) and also the annual climate
change meetings of the UNFCCC’s “Conference At COP4 in Buenos Aires in 1998, the ICFTU,
of the Parties” (“COP”) that began in 1995. along with the Trade Union Advisory Commit-
tee to the OECD, issued a statement calling for
In June 2010, at its second World Congress, more attention to be paid to both the positive
the ITUC adopted an important resolution and the negative effects on employment of
on “combating climate change through sus- different emissions reduction scenarios. The
tainable development and just transition.”10 statement also noted that the success of such
The ITUC reasserted the need for a Just Tran- strategies would depend on the engagement
sition at its third World Congress in Berlin in of workers, unions, and employers in achiev-
2014.11 As of this writing, Just Transition seems ing agreed targets at workplaces, and in pro-
likely to play an even larger role at the ITUC’s moting political support for other measures
2018 World Congress. Just Transition today is within their communities around the world.
clearly at the center of the international trade For this partnership to materialize, the argu-
union movement’s environmental and climate ment went, workers must feel confident that
agenda.12 their livelihoods are not jeopardized. Unions
therefore began to articulate the need for Just
Transition policies to deal with the negative
The UNFCCC impacts on employment brought about by
climate policies, and to highlight the need for
Despite the growing interest and concern with- income protection, re-employment opportu-
in official trade union spaces, the term “Just nities, education, and re-training—all within
Transition” struck only a faint chord in global a framework of Social Dialogue at all levels. It
discussions around climate change at the UNF- was argued that such policies would reduce
CCC during the 1990s, and only gradually came worker resistance to climate protection pol-
to be accepted as a key part of the vocabulary icies and also help ensure worker and union
of the negotiations. engagement and cooperation.
The establishment of the UNFCCC in 1992 led At COP12 in Nairobi in 2006, unions emphasized
to the creation of a political architecture at the the role of workplace-level emissions-reduc-
global level to stabilize atmospheric concentra- tion initiatives, including joint union-manage-
tions of greenhouse gases (the main one being ment “target-setting, monitoring, record-keep-
CO2) at a level that would prevent “dangerous ing, and implementation,” in conjunction with
interference” with the climate system. In 1995, collective agreements and other special part-
the first Conference of the Parties (or COP1) nership arrangements.
met in Berlin—the “parties” being signatory
governments to the UNFCCC. After intense ne-
gotiations two years later at COP3, held in Kyo- Green Growth, Green Jobs
to, delegates agreed on a protocol that com-
mitted developed countries to achieve quan- In 2007, the discourse around Just Transition
tified targets for decreasing their emissions began to expand beyond “safety net” consider-
8TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
ations to include discussion of job creation op- some of the tensions between business, trade
portunities during the transition to a low-car- unions, and civil society around the coming
bon economy—so called “green jobs.” That transition, and to frame the issues in ways that
same year, the European Trade Union Confed- can help realize the many mutually beneficial
eration (ETUC) commissioned its own study features of a green and sustainable future.”14
exploring how jobs could be created by climate
protection policies, and how vocational train- At COP14 in Poznan the following year—with
ing and skills-building were important dimen- the global financial crisis in full swing—unions
sions of a transition towards a low-carbon EU reinforced the green-growth message and pro-
economy. The report concluded that, overall, moted a “green jobs strategy,” while emphasiz-
employment benefits would accrue as a result ing the need for trade unions and civil society
of climate protection policies. to be involved at all levels of decision-making.
At COP13 in Bali that year, jobs remained cen- In December 2015—despite the efforts in the
tral to the trade union message, but the over- years preceding, and despite the high hopes
all framing increasingly made reference to and determination of many in the labor move-
the need for a societal transformation—one ment—the adoption at COP15 of the six-page
consistent with the emissions-reductions tar- “Copenhagen Accord” amounted to a serious
gets and timetables put forward by the Inter- setback both for Just Transition, and for the
governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prospects of a science-based and legally bind-
in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The ing global climate agreement. Nevertheless,
timetables were typically complex, as were just one year later, at COP16 in Cancun, the
the various mitigation scenarios that accom- ITUC was successful in securing a reference to
panied them, but the main message from AR4 Just Transition in the final declaration, affirm-
was that global emissions should peak no lat- ing the importance of a “Just Transition which
er than 2015, and then fall steadily every year will create decent work, good quality jobs in
until 2050. The ITUC acknowledged the AR4 the transition towards a low emission and cli-
targets and consistently endorsed the IPCC’s mate-resilient society.” The inclusion of this
recommendations in the ensuing years. language triggered much celebration among
the unions present.15
During this period, the ITUC partnered with
UNEP and the ILO to promote a jobs-focused At this stage, the effort to include Just Transi-
version of “green growth.” This involved the tion in the new global climate deal was gaining
preparation and release, in September 2008, momentum, even if the deal itself was likely
of the first-ever study of green jobs with both a to be based on voluntary “pledge and review”
sector-by-sector and a global focus.13 Just Tran- commitments. At COP17 in Durban in 2011,
sition was now being described as “a means to ITUC argued that more aggressive emissions
bring economic life into a democratic and sus- reductions would lead to greater numbers of
tainable framework, one grounded in mean- jobs being created:
ingful social dialogue and driven by broadly
shared economic and social priorities.” Just The potential for job creation and transforma-
Transition would help establish “a new mode tion arising from an annual 2% GDP “green” in-
vestment in each country is huge, and could help
of production and consumption that allows for
building public support for climate action. At the
greater social inclusion, equity, and opportu- UNFCCC level, this goes in line with the “operation-
nity.” In order for this to be achieved, “social alisation” of the Just Transition framework adopt-
dialogue is critically important both to ease ed in Cancun.16
9TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
At COP19 in Warsaw in late 2013, the UN pro- Taking into account the imperatives of a just
vided a draft outline of the structure of its fu- transition of the workforce and the creation of
decent work and quality jobs in accordance
ture climate change agreement, where only
with nationally defined development priorities…
“pure” climate issues were mentioned. As the
[and]…
ITUC observed, this accorded “no space for
including issues such as Just Transition and Acknowledging that climate change is a com-
Decent Work that were secured under the mon concern of humankind, Parties should,
Cancun agreements. This puts our strategy when taking action to address climate change,
respect, promote and consider their respective
in a difficult situation.”17 At COP20 in Lima, the
obligations on human rights, the right to health,
primary task was to ensure that, with the piv- the rights of indigenous peoples, local commu-
otal COP21 in Paris fast approaching, Just Tran- nities, migrants, children, persons with disabili-
sition made it back into the text. The effort was ties and people in vulnerable situations and the
not successful. As the ITUC noted: right to development, as well as gender equality,
empowerment of women and intergenerational
Despite numerous governments raising the im- equity
portance of including a message for the world’s
workers around the need for decent work and The ITUC had hoped that the reference to de-
just transition, co-chairs have ignored these cent work and a Just Transition would have been
demands, raising questions about who actu-
part of the “actionable” parts of the agreement,
ally leads this process…. We will not let up on
any government that denies the centrality of but this was not to be. The ITUC subsequently
securing a just transition with decent work op- stated, “We face the biggest and most rapid in-
portunities for workers when building climate dustrial transformation in history. While a just
plans—nor will we sit back and watch govern- transition for workers and the respect of hu-
ments sell out future generations with their lack
man rights have been included in the preamble,
of courage.18
too many Governments refused to commit to it
in the operational sections.” The mention of Just
As one union delegate commented, “At each
Transition in the preamble was described as a
COP, with intense effort, trade unions have
“first step on which we will build.”20
generally succeeded in getting a paragraph
or two on decent work, greener jobs, and Just
Transition in the text. Then, when the next In the two COPs following Paris, the ITUC turned
Conference of the Parties arrives, our text has its attention towards developing national-level
been deleted and we must fight for it to be implementation strategies (“a national plan
re-inserted.”19 for decarbonisation, clean energy and jobs”)
and encouraged national trade union centers
to direct their attention towards urging their
Arriving to Paris own governments to act on Just Transition.
Furthermore, “Governments and employers,
For COP21 in Paris, the trade unions sent their with workers and their unions, must sit togeth-
largest delegation ever. Consisting of more er and commit to protect our future through a
than 400 trade unionists, the effort was the just transition strategy.” 21
culmination of scores of lobbying initiatives at
the national level in the months leading up to
the December 2015 talks. After an intense two Implementation
weeks of negotiations, unions had something
to celebrate. The preamble to the draft agree- Having Just Transition mentioned in the pref-
ment read: ace was a real accomplishment for the ITUC,
10TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
and unions operating at the global level consid- sufficiently ambitious to fulfill the job-creation
er their primary job to be helping to ensure that potential of a low-carbon future.
Just Transition becomes a real force at the level
of national politics and company-level negoti- In Part Two, we highlight what needs to be done
ations. As for the societal transition, the ITUC from a scientific standpoint—and why a trans-
sees the role of unions as helping to ensure formative Just Transition politics is absolutely
that the transition is both fair to workers and essential.
Part Two: The “Net-Zero” Challenge
As unions embark on their efforts to imple- billion metric tons (MT) of GHG emissions an-
ment Just Transition, it is important to be as nually (nearly 55 billion if we include emissions
clear as possible about the nature and scale due to changes in land use). 22 Power genera-
of the challenge, and to confront the fact that tion and industry combined generate nearly
addressing it will require a societal shift of rev- 37 billion MT of CO2 alone. 23 And the global
olutionary proportions—something that is ex- economy is expected to be three times larger
plicitly recognized even by very “mainstream” in 2050 than it was in 2015. 24
voices. The debate on Just Transition needs to
be anchored in this unavoidable reality. Achieving net-zero emissions will require full
decarbonization of the global economy in just
Of course, a Just Transition is required in order four or five decades. At that point, any fur-
to address a broad range of socio-ecological ther GHGs released into the atmosphere must
threats and challenges, but it is the emissions somehow be offset, whether these are pro-
challenge that is perhaps the most formidable, duced in order to generate electricity, make
and it is one that has been explored in excep- products, power cars, trucks, ships, and air-
tional detail and described with considerable planes, heat and cool buildings, produce food,
rigor by the scientific community in recent or any other processes on which organized,
years. Informed by that scientific foundation, modern existence depends. In the case of CO2,
the targets adopted in Paris expressed a glob- offsetting such emissions can be done, at least
al commitment to limit the increase in global to some extent, by enhancing photosynthe-
average temperature to “well below 2°C above sis through reforestation and expanding the
pre-industrial levels” and to work towards lim- amount of vegetation on the surface of the
iting warming to 1.5°C. Those commitments planet. However, at present, some forty-six to
also recognized that achieving such warming fifty-eight thousand square miles of forest are
targets requires that the world reach a state of lost each year—equivalent to forty-eight foot-
“net-zero emissions” soon after 2050. ball fields every minute. 25
It is vital to realize that the need to reduce
The “50 Billion MT” Economy emissions quickly and dramatically runs
counter to existing trends and anticipate tra-
But how can “net-zero emissions” be achieved? jectories. Emissions from fossil fuel use have
Today’s global economy generates nearly 50 risen a staggering 61 percent in the period
11TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
1990 to 2014, and are projected to continue to es in 2100 from 3.7 °C to 4.8 °C compared to
rise for at least another decade, if not two— pre-industrial levels.” 28
far beyond what is compatible with even the
less ambitious “well below 2 degrees Cel-
sius” target. 26 While global emissions leveled “Revolutionary Changes” in Energy
off from 2014-2016—creating a lot of excite-
ment about the prospect of “turning the cor- Energy makes the largest contribution to glob-
ner”—they rose again by 2% in 2017, and are al GHG emissions through the burning of coal,
expected to rise again in 2018. 27 As the IPCC oil, and gas. Even prior to the Paris talks, IEA’s
starkly observes, the levels of warming that then-Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven
are expected to accompany rising emissions asserted, “Keeping temperature increase below
on the basis of existing commitments “result 2°C will require revolutionary changes [to the
in global mean surface temperature increas- global energy system].”29
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
However, in its latest “World Energy Outlook” in the coming few decades in order to counter
(2017), the International Energy Agency (IEA) the ongoing expansion of fossil fuels and the
projects that world energy demand will in- upward pressure on emissions. As we have
crease 30% by 2040. 30 The US Energy Infor- noted in recent TUED working papers, the cur-
mation Administration (EIA) projects a 28% rent rate of renewable energy deployment is
increase. 31 More recent projections by consult- not nearly sufficient to make this happen, and
ing firm McKinsey (in December 2017) project there is compelling evidence to suggest that
a rise in overall global energy demand of 26% it will never be sufficient, if the private sector
from 2015 to 2050. 32 and market forces are left to play a central
role. As one source notes, “Despite a record
The anticipated growth in the use of ener- installation of 161 GW of renewable generat-
gy means that, among many other things, an ing capacity in 2016, global fossil fuel use con-
enormous amount of new renewable power tinues to rise.” 33 This is because global energy
generation capacity must be brought online demand is rising even faster than the deploy-
12TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
ment of renewables, so that both fossil fuels as 36% of the projected reductions of cumula-
and renewables are expanding together. This tive direct CO2 emissions. 34
has been the pattern in recent years, and it is
almost certain to continue under the current One common measure of progress towards an
policy framework and political economy. As a economy-wide decarbonization is “carbon in-
result, more than a decade after the Stern Re- tensity”: the amount of carbon released during
view warned in 2006 that massive economic productive activity for each unit of economic
disruption would ensue if climate change was value produced (so gains in energy efficiency
not addressed, emissions continue to increase, mean that carbon intensity falls). In 2012, con-
and are expected to do so beyond 2030. sulting firm PwC estimated that in order to lim-
it average overall warming to within 2°C, global
carbon intensity would have to drop by 5.1%
Carbon Intensity every year until 2050 and starting immediate-
ly. 35 In the years since, carbon intensity has not
It is also important to keep in mind that, ac- fallen at a rate anywhere near that. There has
cording to the mainstream scenarios, achiev- been some improvement—from an average
ing the Paris targets involves major advances of less than 1% to a high of 2.8% in 2015—but
in areas beyond power generation: in building progress has stalled, and fell back to 2.6% in
efficiency, heating and cooling, transportation, 2016. Given the necessity of such dramatic and
industrial processes and much more besides. unprecedented reductions in carbon intensity,
In the case of industrial processes, technolo- which would have to be sustained over near-
gies that are not yet commercially available ly four decades, PwC’s report deemed gov-
(such as “carbon capture and sequestration,” ernments’ ambitions to limit warming to 2°C
or CCS) have been factored into decarboniza- “highly unrealistic,” concluding that “[t]he only
tion scenarios as making a major contribution. way to avoid the pessimistic scenarios will be
In the IEA’s “Beyond 2 Degrees Scenario,” the radical transformations in the ways the global
contribution of these technologies is as much economy currently functions.” 36
Decarbonization pathways
Source: PwC, Is Paris Possible? The Low Carbon Economy Index 2017
13TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
According to PwC’s 2017 report, the required to remain on track. Of the remaining 23 areas,
annual rate of decarbonization from now on 15 have shown “improvement, but [with] more
has increased to 6.3% per year, every year, un- efforts needed,” while the remaining 8 are sim-
til 2100. 37 And, of course, for each additional ply “not on track.” Two of the fifteen areas that
year in which decarbonization rates fall short have shown “improvement” but are not yet
of the new, higher requirement (and they are “on track” are natural gas-fired power gener-
currently less than half), the reductions nec- ation and nuclear power generation. Carbon
essary from that point forward become even Capture and Sequestration (CCS)—whether of
steeper. To translate this into the terms of a fossil fuels or bio-energy (discussed in more
familiar metaphor, although the rate at which detail below)—is among those that are simply
we are digging has slowed, we are still digging “not on track.”40
ourselves ever more deeply into a hole—and
in 2016, after digging more slowly for a couple Another scenario for reaching the 2°C target
of years, we started digging a bit faster again. has recently been proposed by “Mission 2020,”
a group of scientists working with Christiana
The IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) Figueres, former head of the UNFCCC, with
is another important source of data and a key the aim of accelerating the global conversation
reference point. 38 In its latest ETP (2017), the about climate. The group has proposed that
IEA reports that only 3 of 26 sectors and tech- policymakers adopt a “carbon law” according to
nology areas are “on track” to meet their pro- which emissions are cut roughly in half during
jected contribution to decarbonization: elec- each of the next three decades, beginning in
tric vehicles, energy storage, and “solar PV and 2020.41 This would involve dramatic cuts, un-
onshore wind” (which the report takes togeth- like anything ever undertaken or achieved, and
er). 39 Even these three areas, the IEA notes, will delaying their onset by just a few years would
require “sustained deployment and policies” mean dramatically steeper cuts from then on.
Total CO2 emissions reduction requirements to remain within 2°C warming
Source: Figueres et al., “Three years to safeguard our climate,” Nature, Vol. 546, pp. 593-595, June
29, 2017
14TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
2°C or 1.5°C? precedented policy action as well as effort and
engagement from all stakeholders.”47
As daunting as these scenarios are, they are
in fact often based on limiting overall average
warming only to the less ambitious and more Controversial Technologies and “Neg-
dangerous target of 2°C, rather than to 1.5°C. ative Emissions”
While this half-degree difference in overall
warming may seem small, there is a broad and It is important to note that emissions reduction
growing scientific understanding that its signif- scenarios aiming at two degrees warming or
icance in terms of the likelihood and severity of less rely significantly on technologies that are
serious climate impacts is profound.42 controversial and / or unproven. The IEA not-
ed in its ETP 2017 that, reaching net-zero CO2
At the time of COP21 in Paris, little detailed emissions by 2060 for the global power sector
analysis had been done on what would be re- alone would require, among many other things,
quired to limit overall warming to the more re- achieving 74% of generation from renew-
strictive 1.5°C target.43 In order to fill that gap ables—including 2% from the completely un-
in knowledge, the UNFCCC asked the IPCC to proven “bio-energy with CCS” (BECCS)—plus 7%
produce a report focusing on both the impacts from fossil fuels with CCS and 15% from nuclear
of 1.5°C warming and the emissions pathways power, both of which are highly controversial to
that would be necessary to limit warming to say the least.48
that level. The report is expected in October
2018.44 According to a draft of the report re- On CCS in particular, a previous TUED work-
leased in early 2018, achieving the 1.5°C target ing paper looked in detail at this technology
is still possible, but “extremely unlikely” with- as applied coal-fired power generation. The
out taking immediate action to reduce emis- paper documented how, globally, the number
sions, beginning to reduce demand for energy, of CCS pilot projects has fallen dramatically as
and aggressively pursuing “negative emissions a result of escalating costs and limited private
technologies” (discussed below).45 sector interest. Overall the prospects for CCS
for both the power sector and industrial pro-
Following the Paris talks, the IEA also devel- cesses remain extremely poor. These “capture”
oped a new “Beyond Two Degrees” scenario technologies remain economically unviable at
(B2DS; mentioned briefly above) for its Energy commercial scale, and have often been used
Technology Perspectives reports, beginning in as political cover for the development of new
2017. While still assuming a compound aver- (“CCS compatible”) coal infrastructure. The idea
age annual economic growth rate of nearly 3% that new power stations can be retrofitted with
for the period until 2060, the B2DS describes CCS technologies when they are eventually de-
a pathway to achieve net-zero emissions by veloped (which is unlikely) creates a serious risk
2060, based on pushing technology improve- of “locking in” carbon-intensive infrastructure
ments and deployment “to their maximum without providing the necessary (and promised)
practicable limits across the energy system.”46 mitigation. If CCS technologies were deployed at
But even with this push to “maximum practi- the levels needed to significantly reduce emis-
cable limits,” the B2DS only manages to limit sions, the upstream environmental damage
overall warming to 1.75°C by 2100. And doing done by extracting, transporting, and burning
so “implies that all available policy levers are coal would continue and likely increase due to
activated throughout the outlook period in ev- the fact that the CCS requires as much as 20%
ery sector worldwide. This would require un- more fuel input per unit of energy produced.49
15TRADE UNIONS AND JUST TRANSITION
THE SEARCH FOR A TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS
Of course, as noted above, CCS is one of the In the IEA’s B2DS, BECCS plays a significant role
technologies that is simply deemed “not on in decarbonizing power generation, being re-
track” by the IEA and, given the many challeng- lied upon to remove nearly 5GT of emissions
es it faces, CCS seems extremely unlikely to get annually by 2060.51 Similarly, according to the
“on track” any time soon. OECD, limiting CO2 concentrations to levels
associated with the Paris targets “depends
While both nuclear generation and CCS have significantly on the use of BECCS.” 52 Figue-
long been considered “essential mitigation res’ Mission 2020 (mentioned above) notes
technologies” in the mainstream discourse, that current annual emissions will take the
this is not true in the case of “bio-energy world past the 1.5°C threshold in just 5 to 15
with CCS” (BECCS). Unlike nuclear generation years, which means staying within that limit
or CCS for fossil fuels, BECCS moves into the is “already unachievable without massive ap-
realm of “negative emissions technologies,” plication of largely unproven and speculative
which are seen as having potential not only to carbon dioxide removal technologies” such as
limit emissions, but also to remove CO2 from BECCS.53 As Richard Martin notes for MIT Tech-
the atmosphere. nology Review, of the 116 mitigation scenarios
reviewed by the IPCC to achieve 2°C or less, ful-
In theory, BECCS would combine features of ly 101 involve some form of negative emissions
bio-energy—the use for fuel of crops grown for technologies.54
that purpose, which absorb CO2 from the air as
they grow—with features of “traditional” CCS
technology—the capturing and burying in the Science, Ambition, Action: “Alarming
earth of some of the CO2 emissions released Inconsistencies”
when the fuel is burned. In this way, the theory
goes, BECCS could not merely avoid CO2 emis- The revised mitigation scenarios that have sur-
sions but actually eliminate them from other faced following the Paris Agreement and its
sources. Unlike CCS for coal—which has been temperature thresholds and emissions targets
applied at pilot-project scale (although not suc- are, to say the least, extremely daunting. As
cessfully commercialized)—BECCS has hardly noted in Part One, the IPCC’s emissions reduc-
been implemented at all, even in research and tion targets and timetables recognized in late
pilot phases. Critics have pointed out that, giv- 2007 at COP13 in Bali were already a massive
en the assumptions made in constructing the challenge, but a decade has since passed and
mitigation scenarios that rely on BECCS, grow- emissions have risen by roughly one-fifth.
ing the plant materials necessary to make even
the modest contribution anticipated in those The emissions pledges made by governments
models would involve a land mass at least the before and during COP21 in Paris were hailed
size of India, and possibly twice that.50 Growing as the most ambitious ever offered. But taken
such materials would also require enormous together, the NDCs reveal a massive gulf be-
quantities of water (roughly the same as what tween the aggregated contributions of those
is used for all current global agriculture) and pledges and the emissions reductions levels
utilizing them for energy would involve large required to avoid crossing the 1.5 degrees (or
quantities of liquid fuels for harvest and trans- even “well below 2 degrees”) threshold. This
port. And all of this still leaves the vast uncer- “ambition deficit” is an uncontested fact. There
tainties about long-term impacts from under- are, in the words of one analyst, “alarming in-
ground storage of captured carbon, which is consistencies between science-based targets
already a major issue for fossil fuel-based CCS. and national commitments.” 55
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