U.S. Recession Risk Monitor - Fourth Quarter 2018 - BBVA Research

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U.S. Recession Risk Monitor - Fourth Quarter 2018 - BBVA Research
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor

U.S. Recession
Risk Monitor

Fourth Quarter 2018
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor 4Q18

Highlights

 The probability of an economic recession within the
 next 12 months remains low

 Alternative models show increasing likelihood but also
 indicate relatively low probability

 Overall financial conditions remain accommodative. However,
 a sharp correction in equities and corporate spreads is possible

 Economic fundamentals for households and financial institutions
 remain solid

 Downside risks for nonfinancial businesses and real estate continue
 edging up amid high leverage ratios and rising interest rates

 Increasing uncertainty from turbulent global financial markets
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor 4Q18

Recession Probability

Our models indicate recession probability is low

BBVA Recession Probability                           Explanatory Factors
%, 12-months ahead                                   Percentile Rank

100                                                  100
 90                                                   90               Tipping Point
 80                                                   80

 70                                                   70

 60                                                   60

 50                                                   50

 40                                                   40
                                                      30
 30
                                                      20
 20
                                                      10
 10
                                                       0
  0                                                         Wages      Shadow      Slope   Personal Int      CAPE
      90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18                     Banking              Expense

  Source: BBVA Research and Haver
                                                                                                                              3
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor 4Q18

 Recession Probability

 BBVA Treasury Spread Term-Premium Adj.                                     Treasury Spread
 %, 12-months ahead                                                         %, 12-months ahead, NY Fed
100                                                                        100

 80                                                                         80

 60                                                                         60

 40                                                                         40
 20                                                                         20
   0                                                                         0
       90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18                              90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

 Dynamic-Factor Markov-Switching Model                                      Survey of Professional Forecasters
 %, 12-months ahead, StL Fed                                                %, Decline in real GDP next quarter, Philly Fed
100                                                                        100

 80                                                                         80

 60                                                                         60

 40                                                                         40

 20                                                                         20

   0                                                                         0
       90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18                              90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Source: BBVA Research, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, Philadelphia Fed and Haver
                                                                                                                            4
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor 4Q18

Financial Markets

  Financial Stress Indicators                                                        Financial Stress Index
  >0 = tighter than average                                                          Above 0 = above average stress
 4                                                                                   8
                                     Last (+/- 2sd)
 2                                                                                   6
 0                                                                                   4
-2                                                                                   2
-4                                                                                   0
-6                                                                                  -2
        Credit     Equities     Safe      Funding Volatility    Risk   Leverage
                               assets                                   (nonfin)
                                                                                         93 94 95 97 98 00 01 02 04 05 07 08 10 11 12 14 15 17 18

 Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio                                           Corporate Spreads
 1Q18=100, S&P 500                                                                  Basis points
145                                                                                750                                                                   5000
130                                                                                650                        BBB           CCC (rhs)
                                                                                                                                                         4000
115
                                                                                   550
100                                                                                                                                                      3000
 85                                                                                450
 70                                                                                                                                                      2000
                                                                                   350
 55
                                                                                   250                                                                   1000
 40
 25                                                                                150                                                                   0
      84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18                              08   09   10   11   12   13   14    15    16     17    18
Source: BBVA Research, OFR, KC Fed, R. Shiller, ICE and Haver
                                                                                                                                                                 5
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor 4Q18

 Households

 Liabilities/Disposable Income                               Interest Payments/Personal Income
 Ratio                                                       %

 Nonfarm Payroll                                             Delinquency Rate
 YoY % Change                                                %

Source: BBVA Research, Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA and Haver
                                                                                                                        6
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor 4Q18

 Businesses

 Nonfinancial Corporate Profits                         Nonfinancial Business Debt
 % of GDP                                               % of GDP

 Nonfinancial Corporate Short-term Liabilities C&I Loan Charge-Off Rate & Fed Funds
 YoY % Change                                           %

Source: BBVA Research, Federal Reserve, BEA and Haver
                                                                                                                   7
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor 4Q18

Real Estate

 Housing Starts and New Home Sales                                                  Housing Affordability and Prices
 Thousand units, annualized                                                         Index and YoY % Change
2500                                                                                20                                                                     250
                                    Starts              Sales                                             HPI       Affordability (rhs)
2000
                                                                                    10                                                                     200
1500
                                                                                     0                                                                     150
1000
                                                                                    -10                                                                    100
 500

     0                                                                              -20                                                                    50
         74   78     82    86     90     94     98    02        06   10   14   18         74   78   82   86   90   94   98   02   06    10     14    18

 BBVA Real Estate Prices Misalignment                                                Nonresidential Construction
 1990=100                                                                            YoY % Change
 160                                                                                 30
 145                                                                                 20
                   Residential             Commercial                                10
 130
                                                                                      0
 115
                                                                                    -10
 100
                                                                                    -20
   85
   70
         74   78     82    86     90     94    98     02        06   10   14   18

Source: BBVA Research, Federal Reserve, Census, BEA and Haver
                                                                                                                                                                8
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor 4Q18

Financial Institutions

 Deposits and Capital Ratios                                               Loan Reserves
 % of loans and assets, commercial banks                                   % of total loans, all FDIC institutions
120                                                                   14   4.0
                         Core Deposits/Loans
110                                                                   13   3.5
                         Tier 1 Capital (rhs)                              3.0
100                                                                   12
                                                                           2.5
 90                                                                   11
                                                                           2.0
 80                                                                   10   1.5
 70                                                                   9    1.0
      94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18                                      86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

 Noncurrent Loans and Funding                                              BBVA Credit Cycle Risk Index
 % of loans and liabilities, , commercial banks                            Above 0 = above average risk
                                                                           1.0
                  Noncurrent                  Noncore funding (rhs)
6.0                                                                   24
5.0                                                                        0.5
                                                                      20
4.0
3.0                                                                   16   0.0

2.0
                                                                      12   -0.5
1.0
0.0                                                                   8    -1.0
      88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18                             82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18

Source: BBVA Research, FDIC, Federal Reserve and Haver
                                                                                                                                                        9
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor 4Q18

Prices

 Labor Costs                                           Nonlabor Costs per Unit of Real GDP
 YoY % Change, ECI                                     YoY % Change

  Market Inflation Expectations                        BBVA Inflation Regime Probability
  %                                                    Regime change low to high

                                                       100%
                                                       80%
                                                       60%
                                                       40%
                                                       20%
                                                        0%
                                                              61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18

Source: BBVA Research, Bloomberg, BLS, BEA and Haver
                                                                                                                            10
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor 4Q18

Global Conditions

 Gold Prices                                                    Real Oil Prices
 YoY % Change                                                   YoY % Change
 75                                                            200

 50                                                            150
                                                               100
 25
                                                                50
   0
                                                                 0
-25                                                             -50
-50                                                            -100
       84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18          73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18

 Net Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities                       Global Activity Leading Indicator
 US$bn, 3mma, excluding OFIs and Int’l organizations           YoY % Change
 120                                                           10
 100                                                            8
  80                                                            6
  60
                                                                4
  40
                                                                2
  20
   0                                                            0
 -20                                                            -2
 -40                                                            -4
     989900010203040506070809101112131415161718                      76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18
Source: BBVA Research, Treasury, OECD and Haver
                                                                                                                               11
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor 4Q18

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U.S. Recession Risk Monitor

U.S. Recession
Risk Monitor

Fourth Quarter 2018
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