US Election Preview: Decision 2000
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US Election Preview: Decision 2000
Scott Kocher
The race is on. The 2000 presidential campaign in the United States has already seen
face-to-face gatherings of the Democratic and Republican challengers in New Hampshire -
the first state to hold its primary. In addition, this campaign has already seen potential
candidates drop out of the race, and it may still see others wishing to join. All this, and the
election is still about a year away, as polling places open on 7 November 2000.
In contrast to major European elections, the US election season is longer - much longer. The
jockeying for positions, polls, and voters has already begun. While the elections in November
2000 will decide the next President,1 there is much more at stake. In 2000, every seat in the
US House of Representatives (the lower chamber of the US Congress, which has two-year
terms) will be up for re-election, as will 33 (of the 100) seats in the US Senate (the upper
house, which has six-year terms) and 11 state governorships.2 However, it remains clear that
the presidential campaign will take center-stage both in America and abroad.
This article is not intended to be predictive as to who will win, but it will introduce the major
players in the race for the US presidency. In addition, it will present some of the candidates’
positions on certain issues, and the contenders’ possible strengths and weaknesses heading
into the political “season.” Special attention will be given to foreign policy issues since they
will be of greatest interest to European readers.
A look at the three parties - Democratic, Republican, and Reform - and the major candidates
in each will be examined first, and then an overview of the 2000 presidential election will be
illustrated in the final section. Since the Democrats currently hold the White House, they will
be examined first.
The Democrats: Gore vs. Bradley
The fight for the Democratic Party nomination has already been narrowed to a two-person
showdown. And it is already a fairly close battle. During summer 1999 Vice President Al
Gore had established a fairly wide lead in most polls over Bill Bradley, the former Senator
from New Jersey. By the end of the summer and into the fall, the gap had narrowed, and
although the Gore camp still leads in most polls, it now knows that it may be in for a real
struggle to win.
Al Gore: Out of Clinton’s Shadow
Al Gore has the advantage over his rival of holding a high-visibility job, which will give him
extra exposure leading up to the election. However, the fact that the Vice President is linked
with the current, scandal-ridden Clinton administration may also be one of his biggest
problems.
There is a general feeling that people are tired (and many people very tired) of anything to do
with the current administration. The fact that Al Gore is not blessed with the natural campaign
charm of his current boss does not help him either. Words such as “wooden,” “stiff,” and
even “boring” have been use to describe Gore. However, he is a seasoned political veteran
and should not be underestimated.
Gore formally declared his intention to run on 16 June 1999, and this fall he moved his
campaign from inside the Washington DC “Beltway” to his home state of Tennessee - back
closer to the American people. He has tried to “loosen up” on the campaign trail and connect
with the American voter. In a joint appearance with Bill Bradley in New Hampshire this fall,
Gore expressed himself as a “fighter.”
1On foreign policy issues, Al Gore is an avowed internationalist. He has been actively involved
in much of the foreign policy work of the Clinton administration. Perhaps Gore’s most
well-known accomplishments are with the former Soviet Union. He helped to form the
high-level partnerships with Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan with the US-Russian Joint
Commission on Economic and Technological Cooperation, the US-Ukraine Commission, and
the US-Kazakhstan Commission. In October 1999, Gore was quick to jump on the
Republicans in Congress for voting against the ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty (CTBT) and he has not been shy in criticizing George Bush’s lack of foreign policy
experience.
While serving in the US Senate, Gore was one of only a handful of Democrats who voted for
action against Iraq in 1991. His current opponent, Bill Bradley, voted against this measure.
Bradley supported the use of sanctions. Gore believes in the use of US forces abroad and
stands behind the interventions in Bosnia and Kosovo. Finally, Gore publicly supports
increasing the current level of defense spending.
Bill Bradley: Closing Quickly
Bill Bradley is a former US Senator from New Jersey who is also well known in the United
States for his basketball playing days while with the New York Knicks in the 1960s and
1970s. He formally declared his intention to run for President on 8 September 1999 in Crystal
City, Missouri.
Not given much of a chance at first, Bradley has been steadily gaining on Al Gore in many
polls. He has used a straightforward, yet honest approach to connect with voters. Bradley
has also done well in the fund-raising department and if he does well in the first few
primaries, could have a legitimate chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
On the foreign policy front, Bradley has distinguished himself from Gore (and the Republican
candidates) by stating that the United States should limit its participation in ethnic wars
around the globe. He believes that international organizations such as the UN and NATO
should handle most crises, and that America should only act when it national interest is
affected. Regarding Russia, Bradley believes that the current administration has put too
much stock in Boris Yeltsin as a person and has not focused on improving the overall
situation. He thinks that the United States needs to broaden its engagement with Russia.
Bradley also supports new nuclear arms talks with Russia even in the absence of Duma
ratification of START II. He even suggests lower limits (1,000-2,000 warheads) than the
administration’s proposed cuts (2,000-2,500).
Bradley has expressed his support for China’s entry into the World Trade Organization
(WTO) and for free trade in general. He also identified what he believes will be the five most
important countries to the United States in the near future - China, Germany, Japan, Mexico,
and Russia. Bradley would hold defense spending at current levels, but would attempt to
eliminate several big-ticket items such as the F-22 fighter and new heavy tanks. On the
domestic end of foreign policy, Bradley would try to restore the general sense of
bipartisanship that existed during the Cold War.
The Republicans: Can Anyone Catch Bush?
The competition for the Republican presidential nomination is more crowded than the
Democratic field, but it has been narrowed to six candidates: Gary Bauer, a former
policy-maker under President Ronald Reagan; George W. Bush, current Governor of Texas;
Steve Forbes, president and CEO of Forbes magazine; Orrin Hatch, current Senator from
Utah; Alan Keyes, talk show host and former US Ambassador; and John McCain, current
Senator from Arizona. The GOP (Grand Old Party)3 had an even larger field until such
notables as former US Vice President Dan Quayle, former Red Cross president Elisabeth
Dole, and former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander dropped out of the race. Pat
Buchanan left the scramble for the Republican nomination to attempt to win control of the
2Reform Party. Senator Bob Smith also left the GOP race to run briefly as an Independent,
although he later dropped out of the race completely.
From the beginning the GOP nomination has been Bush’s to lose. He has enjoyed a
comfortable lead on all of his opponents from the day he announced his intention to run for
President. Actually, his lead has lasted longer than that, since he was polling ahead of other
potential candidates before he even formally entered the race. However, in some states,
Bush’s lead has been decreasing. In New Hampshire where the first primary will be held, he
is practically even with John McCain. McCain is also gaining on Bush in other early primary
states such as Arizona. Right now, McCain is seen as the only one who can mount a credible
threat to Bush. Support for Bauer, Hatch and Keyes has continually been in the single digits
and is limited to a conservative base. Forbes enjoys slightly more backing than these three,
but has been unable to attract new voters into his core group of supporters. Here is a closer
look at the six Republican candidates.
President George Bush II?
While George W. Bush is neither a “Jr.,” nor the “II,” he is currently leading most polls to win
the Republican nomination. In addition, Bush comes out on top in most polls that match him
against either Al Gore or Bill Bradley in a potential presidential final. It is for this reason - that
he appears to be “electable” - that many people like Bush. This comes after two terms of a
Clinton administration that has seen numerous scandals and waffling on many issues.
People want to see new and fresh leadership.
As the campaign begins to increase in pace, Governor Bush has appeared vulnerable in
several areas. First, his stance on many issues is unclear. People may like him because he
can win, but many are also unsure of his stances on some of the bigger issues. Second, he
has been targeted as unproven on foreign policy issues. Unlike the Vice President and
Senators, being a Governor does not give one as much exposure to international issues.
Third, Bush avoided some early debates and appearances with some of his rivals. He has
since appeared with his GOP rivals and although he did not overwhelm anyone with his
performance, he has been able to hold his ground. So far, the appearances have not allowed
for direct confrontation between the candidates and no one knows how he will do in this
format.
Despite all this, Bush is still the one to beat. On top of his current support, he also has
managed to amass a huge “war chest” of campaign funds. This money will help significantly
throughout the primary season and into the general election should he win the GOP
nomination.
Unlike his father, former President George H.W. Bush, foreign policy has turned out to be an
early stumbling block for the younger Bush. In early November 1999, Bush was “ambushed”
by a television reporter who gave him a “pop quiz” on foreign leaders. The reporter asked
Bush to name the leaders of Taiwan, India, Pakistan, and Chechnya. Bush only knew half of
the Taiwanese President’s name and appeared to be defensive when he was confronted with
these questions. Soon thereafter, Bush went on to give a foreign policy speech to try and
clarify his views. However, the speech was general in content and did not offer many
specifics. For example, he said that peace in places such as the Western Hemisphere, the
Middle East, Asia, and between Russia and Europe will be a priority. He has criticized the
Russians for their brutal campaign in Chechnya and said that US aid should be halted except
for those programs that involve dismantling nuclear weapons and student exchange
programs. Bush opposes the CTBT and is a proponent of developing a National Missile
Defense (NMD).
3John McCain: An American Hero
At the time of writing, McCain is seen as the only Republican candidate who has a realistic
shot at catching Bush. And in order to do that, he must do well in early primary contests or
the GOP race could be over fast, since McCain does not have the financial support that Bush
does at the moment. McCain, who was a prisoner of war in Vietnam, is doing well in New
Hampshire, which holds its first-in-the-nation primary on 1 February 2000, and in Arizona -
his home state. If McCain can win or finish a close second to Bush in these early contests,
then he may be able to stay in the race until the convention.
McCain has been a leading voice on foreign policy issues in the Senate and this area is
clearly one of his strengths. He also favors China’s entry into the WTO and would seek to
increase the number of free-trade agreements the United States currently has. McCain is an
ardent internationalist who believes that the United States should support the overthrow of
“rogue regimes” such as Iraq and North Korea. He raises concerns regarding new immediate
dangers such as: ethnic wars, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and international
terrorism. Like Bush, McCain is also critical of the CTBT and a proponent of a NMD system.
Steve Forbes: He’s Got Money (But Does He Have the Support?)
With the departure of Elisabeth Dole, Forbes has been running third in many polls. His
message is clearly one of economics and lower taxes, but he has done little to boost support
in his second run at the presidency. Forbes was initially seen as trying to “buy” the
presidency, as he has a considerable family fortune supporting him. While he does have a
small solid base of backers, his style has often been branded “dull” and has never been able
to expand his support too far past his core.
Forbes has expressed his opposition to China’s entry into the WTO, but would support
Taiwan. In an early foreign policy speech he stated that he would support a free-trade
agreement with the United Kingdom and Ireland, but believes that the European Union (EU)
is a “misguided global institution.” Forbes is a “free-trader” and supports the North American
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). He supports the abolition of the International Monetary
Fund (IMF).
The Rest of the Republicans
Bauer, Hatch and Keyes will battle for the conservative vote, but that is about it. None of
these three have broad appeal beyond the right-wing of the Republican Party. If any of these
candidates gets double-digit numbers in any of the primaries, then they can consider it a
success.
Gary Bauer’s platform is strictly conservative: pro-life, lower taxes, pro-family, better
education, stronger defense, and a foreign policy based on freedom and values. Bauer is
currently on a leave of absence as the President of Family Research Council. Like Forbes,
Bauer would also like to do away with the IMF. He believes that America should remain an
internationalist country.
Orrin Hatch is a Senator from Utah, where he has served since 1977. He is billing himself as
a hard-worker with a tender spot for people. He is also strong on defense and an
internationalist on foreign affairs. One of his big issues is a strong stand against terrorism.
Hatch does support the IMF, but believes that the United States should remain on the
sidelines in cases of foreign wars for independence.
4Alan Keyes is a conservative talk-show host and is making his second run at the GOP
nomination (the first being in 1996). Beside Pat Buchanan, he is the only other Roman
Catholic in the running.4 Keyes’ campaign is based on respecting the law and individual
responsibility. His ideas are full of religious overtones and often mention freedom, duty, and
morality. Curiously, on the issue of supporting the United Nations - where Keyes was a
diplomat - he calls the organization a place of “dangerously naive globalist dreams.”
The Reform Party: The Struggle for Control
The Reform Party is a new addition to the American political landscape. The United States
has primarily been a two-party system, and third-party candidates usually run just that in
elections - third. In 1992 Ross Perot, a Texas billionaire, generated a lot of interest with his
alternative Reform Party, and it certainly had an effect in that election.5
Because the Reform Party is more of a grass-roots organization, there are currently eight
people seeking its nomination with the most famous being the former conservative
Republican, Pat Buchanan. The other seven are political unknowns. The big question mark
in the ranks of the Reform Party is Donald Trump, the real-estate billionaire. He has
expressed an interest in running for the Reform nomination and has the support of Jesse
Ventura, the ex-professional wrestler and current Governor of the state of Minnesota.
Ventura shocked the nation when he won this position on the Reform ticket in 1998.
Pat Buchanan has long been associated with the isolationist strain in America. However, he
has recently made some curious comments regarding possibly opening up a dialogue with
countries such as Iran and Iraq. Still, Buchanan has long opposed China’s and Japan’s
access to US markets and NAFTA. He has often mentioned raising trade barriers and
enacting tariffs on many foreign products. Buchanan also opposed foreign aid projects
(except for natural disasters) and most military engagements abroad. He has also stated that
he would try to withdraw the United States from any international organization that may be
detrimental to US economic stability.
It is difficult to pin down exactly what the Reform Party’s foreign policy is because it is
grass-roots organization. This is the vague statement given on its foreign policy position on
the Reform Party web-site: “The Reform Party of the United States is committed to a foreign
policy based on the principles of consistency, decisiveness, and accountability. We insist on
a foreign policy that is proactive rather than reactive, and whose primary purpose is to
enhance our country's national security.”
The choice of Reform Party nominee could have a significant outcome on the presidential
election. If it is the conservative Buchanan, it could draw votes from the Republicans, but if
the nominee is Trump, or someone else more moderate or even liberal, it could draw votes
from the center (the traditional battleground for votes), and thus from both parties.
Decision 2000: A Long Way to Go
Only a month can be a long time in American politics. Since it is almost a year before the
election, a lot is still possible. This article is only meant as a primer before things really heat
up in 2000. However, there are some significant trends that can be identified now as clues as
to what to watch for in the upcoming months.
The Mood of the Electorate
In general, the American electorate is content with the way things are going. The economy is
quite strong, and has been for some time. The stock market has continued to climb. Crime is
on a steady downward trend. Times are good. However, there are still some big domestic
5issues on the horizon that need to be addressed, such as Social Security, health care, and
campaign finance reform.
A recent survey by Harvard University showed that most Americans either do not care about
the upcoming presidential election or are already bored of it. Many Europeans are probably
aware that voter turnout rates are much lower in the United States than on the European side
of the Atlantic. In addition, foreign policy usually does not play a major role in US presidential
elections. Gore tried to make the rejection of the CTBT a campaign issue immediately after it
happened, but that faded away quickly.
When times are good, it is rare for the electorate to want to “rock the boat,” but the Clinton
administration, with its variety of scandals, has continued to solidify many people’s belief of
the “untrustworthy politician.” To match the criticism of the White House, the
Republican-majority Congress has often been seen as a roadblock to finding solutions and
passing legislation. Charges that many Republicans opposed President Clinton’s policies
based solely on personal dislike, rather than belief, may not be that far off the mark. This
could conceivably lead to a situation in which the two major parties switch places in the
executive and legislative branches (i.e. the Republicans take the White House and the
Democrats lead the Congress - or perhaps take back one side of it). Even though this
situation would appear to slow down the pace of enacting legislation, many Americans prefer
the stability of having different parties in the executive and legislative branches to balance
each other.
Endless Polls
America loves to poll. In fact, one criticism of the Clinton administration is that it was run by
polls, thus probably deserving the charge that it had no real beliefs and just tried to satisfy
the greatest amount of people most of the time.
At the time of writing, George W. Bush still holds a fairly significant lead over John McCain,
Steve Forbes and the rest of the field for the GOP nomination in most national polls. Within
the Democratic Party, Gore still leads Bradley nationally. In a potential presidential final
match, Governor Bush leads in head-to-head contests versus both Vice President Gore and
Bill Bradley. In addition, some polls have asked “who would you prefer as President?” with a
third-party candidate thrown into the mix (usually Pat Buchanan), and Bush still comes out
ahead (although usually with a smaller majority). Of course, these polls only reflect
percentages and do not take into account the Electoral College system. One fear that must
exist in the Bush campaign is the potential to peak too early. In addition, polls are not always
right, especially as races get tighter.
Prediction
To attempt to predict a presidential election this far out is pure folly. For the final result the
world will have to wait until either the late evening on 7 November 2000, or if the race is
extremely close, perhaps even until the early morning of 8 November 2000. Until that time
there will still be a lot to watch and more to analyze.
Scott A. Kocher is an analyst for DynMeridian and an Honorary Councilor with the Atlantic
Council of the United States. The views expressed above are his alone.
Noten
1. There will definitely be a new US President since Bill Clinton has already been elected to two
consecutive terms and is ineligible to run again. The 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution
(ratified in 1951) prevents a person from being elected more than twice. This amendment came
after Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected to four consecutive terms.
62. The current balance of power at the top levels of the US Government: the Democrats control
the Executive Branch (i.e. The White House); and the Republicans control the House of
Representatives (223 Republicans, 211 Democrats, 1 Independent), the Senate (55
Republicans, 45 Democrats), and the majority of governorships (31 Republicans, 17
Democrats, 1 Reform Party, 1 Independent).
3. The “Grand Old Party” (GOP) is a nickname that the Republican Party gave itself back in the
1880s.
4. The only Catholic President of the United States to date was John F. Kennedy. Most have
been some denomination of Protestantism (e.g. Unitarian, Presbyterian, Dutch Reformed,
Baptist, etc.). Four presidents had no religious affiliation: Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln,
Andrew Johnson, and Rutherford Hayes.
5. It is believed that the Reform Party took more votes away from the Republican Party, thus
allowing Bill Clinton to win his first term.
US Electoral Process
A brief explanation of how the President is elected may be useful to those who are not familiar with the
US electoral process. Beginning in February 2000, primaries and caucuses are held in states by the
two major US political parties - the Republicans and the Democrats - in the months leading up to their
national conventions. The people vote for their preference of candidates, but are actually electing
delegates that go to the convention to decide ultimately on the party’s candidate. It is here that people
in each party decide who they would like to represent them. The parties will then hold their conventions
in the summer of 2000 to decide ultimately on their candidate for the presidency. By the end of the
convention it is also decided who will be each candidate’s vice presidential running mate. After the
summer conventions, the field to become President is narrowed to a single Republican candidate and
a single Democratic candidate. It appears that there will be three in 2000, because of the emergence of
the Reform Party. From the US Labor Day holiday in the first week of September until Election Day,
campaigning will be intense. It is during this period that there may be the possibility of head-to-head
debates among the candidates.
Contrary to some beliefs, the President is not elected by a direct popular vote. Rather, the winner is
determined through the Electoral College. Electoral votes are given to each states based on
population. For example, California is presently the crown jewel of all of the states because it is worth
54 electoral votes. New York is second worth 33 votes, and Texas is third at 32 votes. It is thus
possible to win the election without necessarily having the greatest number of popular votes.
Candidates must win states, so it definitely matters where you get the votes.
In order to become President a candidate must win 270 electoral votes, which is one more than half of
the 538 possible votes. If no ticket (presidential and vice presidential candidate) wins 270 electoral
votes, then the decision goes to the House of Representatives. Once the President is elected there is a
transition process between the two administrations. The new President will not officially take office until
noon on 20 January 2001.
Important Dates in the 2000 Election Season
1 February 2000 The first primary is held in New Hampshire. This event is usually
considered the beginning of the real election season.
7 March 2000 Also called “Super Tuesday.” Primaries are held in twelve states on
this day including several large and important states such as
California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Ohio. The day
after the results for these contests are tallied could be the end of one
or several campaigns.
14 March 2000 Another big primary day only a week after “Super Tuesday.” Seven
primaries are held including the important states of Florida and Texas.
29 July-4 August 2000 Republican National Convention is held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
10-13 August 2000 Reform Party Convention is held in Long Beach, California.
14-17 August 2000 Democratic National Convention is held in Los Angeles, California.
7 November 2000 Election Day.
20 January 2001 Inauguration Day.
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