WA Impact Statement COVID-19 - pandemic December 2020 - WA Government

Page created by Virgil Flores
 
CONTINUE READING
WA Impact Statement COVID-19 - pandemic December 2020 - WA Government
WA
Impact
Statement
COVID-19
pandemic

December 2020
WA Impact Statement COVID-19 - pandemic December 2020 - WA Government
Contents

                          Impact overview                                                        3

                          At a glance                                                           4

                          Known impacts: Health                                                 6

                          Known impacts: Economic and infrastructure                           10

                          Known impacts: Social                                                13

                          Known impacts: Industry                                              15

                          Known impacts: Regions                                               17

                          Acknowledgment of Country:
                          The Government of Western Australia acknowledges the traditional
                          custodians throughout Western Australia and their continuing
                          connection to the land, waters and community. We pay our respects to
                          all members of Aboriginal communities and their cultures; and to Elders
                          past, present and emerging.

                          © State of Western Australia 2020
                          There is no objection to this plan being copied in whole or part provided
                          there is due acknowledgment of any material quoted or reproduced.

                          Published by the Department of the Premier and Cabinet, Western
                          Australia, December 2020.

                          This report is available at WA.gov.au

                          ISBN: 978-0-7307-0298-6

2   WA Impact Statement
WA Impact Statement COVID-19 - pandemic December 2020 - WA Government
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

    This statement provides an        Initially, it was anticipated the   A $5.5 billion investment by
    overview of the impact of         impact of the pandemic would        the Government through the
    the COVID-19 pandemic on          be dire. Rising unemployment,       WA Recovery Plan is driving
    Western Australia. It updates     an overwhelmed health service       the local economy and
    the WA Impact Statement           and community isolation were        helping Western Australia
    released by the Government        real possibilities. While the       get back to being a thriving
    in July 2020.                     livelihoods of many Western         and innovative place in which
                                      Australians were – and              to live, work, visit and do
    Compared to other parts of
                                      continue to be – affected by        business.
    the world, there has been a low
                                      the pandemic, the State has to
    number of COVID-19 cases in                                           This statement summarises
                                      date avoided its worst impacts
    Western Australia. The State’s                                        the known and emerging
                                      and is recovering strongly.
    coordinated response, border                                          impacts of the pandemic,
    controls, and the community’s     Western Australia is leading the    taking into consideration the
    adherence to the guidelines and   nation in relaxing restrictions,    ongoing measures that have
    restrictions, have protected      allowing the local economy          been implemented to prevent
    everyone.                         to open up faster and getting       the spread of the virus,
                                      more people back to work.           respond to the impacts of
    Until a vaccine is developed
                                                                          the pandemic, and progress
    and distributed, however,         Employment growth was the
                                                                          with both economic and
    the Western Australian            fastest in the nation, the health
                                                                          community recovery.
    community needs to live           system has been strengthened
    with the risk of COVID-19         to manage possible future
    for the foreseeable future,       outbreaks and the community
    given the risk of COVID-19        has banded together to support
    around the world.                 the most vulnerable.

                                                                Western Australia
                                                                is leading the
                                                                nation in relaxing
                                                                restrictions.

3   WA Impact Statement
WA Impact Statement COVID-19 - pandemic December 2020 - WA Government
At a glance
    Health                            Economic and infrastructure        Social
    To respond to COVID-19,           While the Western Australian       Consistent with the better
    the health system initially       economy has been impacted by       than expected economic
    suspended a number of clinical    the pandemic, it is on a strong    outcomes in recent months,
    activities. It reallocated        road to recovery.                  negative wellbeing impacts
    resources to purchase medical                                        from the pandemic and
                                      • Business and consumer
    supplies and equipment, and                                          pandemic response have not
                                        confidence in Western
    increased the health workforce.                                      been as large as anticipated.
                                        Australia have recovered
    The health system has built the                                      However, concerns remain
                                        from their weakest levels on
    capacity to respond to surges.                                       about future impacts once
                                        record following the onset
                                                                         additional welfare and housing
    • As at 24 December 2020            of the pandemic. Business
                                                                         supports from the Australian
      there have been 847 cases         confidence is stronger than
                                                                         Government are wound down.
      of COVID-19 including nine        it has been in years and
      deaths. 612,889 COVID-19          consumer confidence is           • Homelessness support
      tests have been performed.        above pre-pandemic levels          referrals have remained
                                        for the fourth consecutive         below 2019 levels since
    • From late April 2020
                                        month in December 2020.            May 2020 following a
      elective surgery capacity
                                                                           sharp increase early in
      progressively increased and     • Reflecting this strength in
                                                                           the pandemic.
      is now at 100%. Since going       confidence, real retail trade
      to full capacity, waitlisted      grew by a record 10.2% in the    • Housing availability
      elective surgery admissions       September 2020 quarter and         continues to be a concern,
      in the July to October 2020       by 12.8% in year-ended terms,      with the rental vacancy rate
      period were 7.3% greater          the strongest year ended           below 1% (its lowest level
      than the same period in 2019.     growth since June 1992.            since 2007) and the public
                                                                           housing waitlist up more
    • Use of telehealth services      • At November 2020, around
                                                                           than 8% since March 2020.
      has increased enormously          101,700 (98.5%) of the initial
      with a total of 454,623           jobs lost have been recovered,   • There has been an increase
      appointments delivered            while total hours worked have      in reported incidents
      since March 2020.                 returned to pre-COVID levels.      of family and domestic
                                                                           violence, with 18% more
    • The mental health impact        • The unemployment rate has
                                                                           (family) assault offences
      is a key emerging issue,          reduced from a high of 8.7%
                                                                           between March and
      anticipated to be further         in June 2020 to 6.4% in
                                                                           December 2020 than in
      realised in the months and        November 2020, the second
                                                                           the same period in 2019.
      years to come.                    lowest of all states.
                                                                           However, calls to family and
    • With an increased focus on      • The underemployment rate           domestic violence helplines
      COVID-19 by the community,        has come down from a high          have returned to levels seen
      there is the potential for        of 14.4% in April 2020 to          in January 2020.
      increased risk of undiagnosed     7.9% in November 2020, the
                                                                         • Arts, culture, and sports
      or untreated diseases.            lowest of all states.
                                                                           facilities are now reopening
                                                                           and provide opportunities for
                                                                           recreation, social connection
                                                                           and wellbeing. However,
    Real retail trade grew by                                              ongoing venue and travel
                                                                           restrictions continue to
    a record 10.2% in the                                                  impact the industry.

    September 2020 quarter.

4   WA Impact Statement
WA Impact Statement COVID-19 - pandemic December 2020 - WA Government
Industry                          Regions
    After a number of key industry    Each region faces several            • A lack of digital connectivity
    sectors reduced operations        unique challenges and                  in some regional areas is
    due to the necessary public       opportunities that affect its          continuing to hinder the
    health response, the phased       social and economic recovery.          ability to adopt online
    lifting of restrictions has       The international border closure       business models and access
    resulted in increased economic    has had a disproportionate             online services.
    activity. The ongoing impact      impact on the regions. The
                                                                           • Cooperation and
    and speed of recovery vary        tourism, hospitality, retail, arts
                                                                             collaboration between
    across industries, with the       and recreation sectors have
                                                                             government, Aboriginal
    remaining restrictions, levels    been impacted the most.
                                                                             leaders and community
    of Government support and
                                      • The number of Jobactive              groups remain key
    external environment having
                                        cases in the regions has risen       throughout recovery,
    different effects on different
                                        from 16,464 in the week              particularly with remote
    industries.
                                        ending 23 February 2020              Aboriginal communities.
    • Retail trade has reached          to 27,664 in the week ending
      record levels. Support from       25 October 2020.
      the Western Australian and
                                      • The ‘Wander out Yonder’
      Australian Governments
                                        campaign has encouraged
      has also led to a significant
                                        Western Australians to
      increase in activity in the
                                        travel and holiday in regional
      construction industry.
                                        Western Australia.
    • The value of Western
                                      • Regional food and
      Australia’s total exports
                                        agriculture businesses have
      continues to be high,
                                        been impacted due to the
      although this is largely a
                                        lack of people to fill seasonal
      result of the high price of
                                        farming and food processing
      iron ore. Other exports have
                                        jobs. This potentially
      been affected by lower
                                        impacts the price of fruit and
      prices and trade tensions.
                                        vegetables in the future.
    • Ongoing restrictions
                                      • Economic conditions in
      (including on international
                                        regional Western Australia
      travel) continue to constrain
                                        are generally improving,
      international education, as
                                        with State Government,
      well as larger entertainment
                                        Australian Government
      events. The redirection of
                                        and industry led recovery
      spending
                                        activity flowing through.
      to the local tourism market
      has been positive.              • A steady pipeline of
                                        infrastructure work is seeing
    • Initial supply chain
                                        significant investment in the
      disruptions have largely been
                                        regions and ensuring local
      resolved although the supply
                                        opportunities are maximised.
      of some goods and services
      to Western Australia may be
      affected as the pandemic
      worsens overseas.

5   WA Impact Statement
WA Impact Statement COVID-19 - pandemic December 2020 - WA Government
Known impacts:
    Health

    COVID-19 cases
    As at 24 December 2020, there
    has been more than eight months
    of no community transmission.                                       As at 24 December
    There have been 847 total
    confirmed cases of COVID-19:                                        2020, there has
    830 people have recovered
    from the disease, 9 people have                                     been more than
    died from the disease and 8
    cases remain active. There have
                                                                        eight months of
    been 612,889 COVID-19 tests
    performed including 99,437 tests
                                                                        no community
    of people in regional areas.
    COVID clinics are operating
                                                                        transmission.
    at Royal Perth Hospital, Fiona
    Stanley Hospital and Sir Charles
    Gairdner Hospital and in Bunbury,
    Midland, Rockingham, Armadale,
    Joondalup, Kununurra and Broome.

                                                   COVID-19 cases
                                                 COVID-19 cases
                             Total daily cases (LHS)        Cumulative confirmed cases (RHS)
    60                                                                                         900
                                                                                               800
    50
                                                                                               700
    40                                                                                         600
                                                                                               500
    30
                                                                                               400
    20                                                                                         300
                                                                                               200
    10
                                                                                               100
     0                                                                                         0
          30-Oct
            6-Oct
           10-Jul

          14-Oct
            8-Jun
            5-Apr

          22-Oct
         20-Mar

             2-Jul
          24-Jun

           26-Jul
           4-Mar

          29-Apr

           3-Aug

         20-Sep
           18-Jul

           4-Sep
          16-Jun
         28-Mar

         19-Aug
           9-Feb

         23-May

           7-Nov
          13-Apr
          21-Apr

         15-May

         28-Sep
           7-May

         31-May

         27-Aug
         25-Feb

         11-Aug
           1-Feb

         12-Mar

         12-Sep
         17-Feb

         Source: Department of Health

6   WA Impact Statement
WA Impact Statement COVID-19 - pandemic December 2020 - WA Government
Health system readiness
    In the initial months of the       contributed to a significant        As of 18 November 2020,
    pandemic, ensuring the             decrease in the influenza rate      the Department of Health
    capacity of the health system      and a reduction in hospital         employed 50 full-time
    to respond to widespread           admissions for influenza in 2020.   equivalent (FTE) contact
    community transmission was                                             tracers. It is estimated that
                                       Ensuring health workforce
    paramount. This led to the                                             this allows for responding
                                       capacity and protecting the
    suspension of a number of                                              to 30 cases a day for four
                                       health and safety of high
    clinical activities. Due to the                                        weeks. In addition, there are
                                       risk health care workers has
    low rate of community                                                  approximately 640 contact
                                       been a priority throughout
    transmission in Western                                                tracers either on a surge
                                       Western Australia’s response.
    Australia, these services have                                         register or in the process
                                       Large scale recruitment to
    since re-commenced.                                                    of being offered contracts.
                                       employment pools, clinical
    There continues to be a good       education and skills training,      Outbreak response planning
    supply of personal protective      guidelines for COVID-19             for COVID-19 has been an
    equipment (PPE) available, with    patient care, policy and training   essential part of the State’s
    a dedicated procurement team       in the appropriate use of PPE,      preparedness. An integrated
    sourcing PPE, medical equipment    and staff support programs          State plan, as well as supporting
    and health care supplies from      have been put in place.             plans for high risk settings, have
    existing and new suppliers.        Encouraging regular leave and       been developed.
                                       having workforce planning in
    Health messaging on influenza
                                       place to support staff remain
    vaccination, and the need
                                       critical. A dedicated COVID-19
    for physical distancing and
                                       call centre and wellness helpline
    COVID-safe principles,
                                       are available to all staff.

    Waitlist for elective surgery
    From late April 2020, a staged
    resumption of elective surgery
    commenced and, from 15 June
    2020, elective surgery returned
    to full capacity.

    Since the commencement of
    an elective surgery blitz (at 31
    October) 62,692 patients have
    been admitted. Compared to
    the same period in 2019, this
    is an increase of 7.3% or 4,274
    additional admissions.

7   WA Impact Statement
WA Impact Statement COVID-19 - pandemic December 2020 - WA Government
Emergency department                                                                                                              Statewide emergency attendances
    attendances
                                                                                                                                                                    Attendances
    A dramatic reduction in emergency
                                                                                                                         120,000
    department activity was observed in

                                                                        Emergency Attendances
                                                                                                                         100,000
    April 2020 with 24.8% (21,953) fewer
    attendances than April 2019.                                                                                         80,000

                                                                                                                         60,000
    Attendance numbers have been
    increasing steadily since April 2020,                                                                                40,000

    and in October 2020 attendances                                                                                      20,000
    were 5.3% (4,819) higher than the
                                                                                                                                  0
    same period in 2019.

                                                                                                                              M 19

                                                                                                                               Ju 19

                                                                                                                                Ju 19
                                                                                                                              A 19
                                                                                                                              Se 19
                                                                                                                              O 19
                                                                                                                              N 19
                                                                                                                              D 19
                                                                                                                              Ja 19
                                                                                                                              Fe 20
                                                                                                                              M 20
                                                                                                                              A 20
                                                                                                                              M 20

                                                                                                                              Ju 20

                                                                                                                               Ju 20
                                                                                                                              A 20
                                                                                                                              Se 20
                                                                                                                              O 20
                                                                                                                                      20
                                                                                                                                    -

                                                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                                                  n-

                                                                                                                                   l-

                                                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                                                  p-

                                                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                                                 n-
                                                                                                                                 b-

                                                                                                                                   -
                                                                                                                                   -

                                                                                                                                   -
                                                                                                                                 n-

                                                                                                                                  l-

                                                                                                                                   -
                                                                                                                                 p-

                                                                                                                                   -
                                                                                                                                 pr
                                                                                                                                ay

                                                                                                                                ug

                                                                                                                                 ct
                                                                                                                                ov
                                                                                                                                ec

                                                                                                                                ar
                                                                                                                                pr
                                                                                                                                ay

                                                                                                                                ug

                                                                                                                                ct
                                                                                                                               A                                         Source: Department of Health
                                                                                                                                             Telehealth/Telephone Attended Appointments
                                                                                No of attended Telehealth appointments

                                                                                                                          100,000

                                                                                                                           90,000

    Innovation and digital health                                                                                         Telehealth/telephone
                                                                                                                           80,000              attended appointments
                                                                                                                           70,000         Telehealth/Telephone Attended Appointments
    Following the declaration of
                                                No of attended Telehealth appointments

                                                                                                                      60,000
                                                                                                                   100,000
    the pandemic there was a rapid
                                                                                                                           50,000
                                                                                                                         90,000
    escalation in telehealth and                                                                                         80,000
                                                                                                                           40,000
    telephone appointments. The                                                                                          70,000
                                                                                                                           30,000
    number of virtual appointments                                                                                       60,000
                                                                                                                           20,000

    has decreased since the easing                                                                                       50,000
                                                                                                                           10,000
                                                                                                                         40,000
    of restrictions commenced                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                         30,000
                                                                                                                              Fe 20

                                                                                                                              M 20

                                                                                                                              A 20

                                                                                                                              M 20

                                                                                                                              Ju 20

                                                                                                                               Ju 20

                                                                                                                              A 20

                                                                                                                              Se 20

                                                                                                                              O 20
                                                                                                                                      20
                                                                                                                                      19

                                                                                                                               Ju 19

                                                                                                                                Ju 19

                                                                                                                              A 19

                                                                                                                              Se 19

                                                                                                                              O 19

                                                                                                                              N 19

                                                                                                                              D 19

                                                                                                                              Ja 19

    in June 2020 but remain
                                                                                                                                    -

                                                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                                                  n-

                                                                                                                                   l-

                                                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                                                  p-

                                                                                                                                    -

                                                                                                                                    -

                                                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                                                 n-

                                                                                                                                 b-

                                                                                                                                   -

                                                                                                                                   -

                                                                                                                                   -
                                                                                                                                 n-

                                                                                                                                  l-

                                                                                                                                   -
                                                                                                                                 p-

                                                                                                                                   -
                                                                                                                         20,000
                                                                                                                                 pr

                                                                                                                                ay

                                                                                                                                ug

                                                                                                                                 ct

                                                                                                                                ov

                                                                                                                                ec

                                                                                                                                ar

                                                                                                                                pr

                                                                                                                                ay

                                                                                                                                ug

                                                                                                                                ct
                                                                                                                            A

                                                                                                                                  M

    higher than the previous year                                                                                        10,000
    (169% higher in October 2020                                                                                              0

    compared to October 2019).
                                                                                                                           D 19

                                                                                                                           Ja 19

                                                                                                                           Fe 20

                                                                                                                           M 20

                                                                                                                           A 20

                                                                                                                           M 20

                                                                                                                           Ju 20

                                                                                                                            Ju 20

                                                                                                                           A 20

                                                                                                                           Se 20

                                                                                                                           O 20
                                                                                                                                   20
                                                                                                                                   19

                                                                                                                            Ju 19

                                                                                                                             Ju 19

                                                                                                                           A 19

                                                                                                                           Se 19

                                                                                                                           O 19

                                                                                                                           N 19
                                                                                                                                 -

                                                                                                                                 -
                                                                                                                                 -

                                                                                                                                 -
                                                                                                                               n-

                                                                                                                                l-

                                                                                                                                 -
                                                                                                                               p-

                                                                                                                                 -

                                                                                                                              n-

                                                                                                                              b-

                                                                                                                                -

                                                                                                                                -

                                                                                                                                -
                                                                                                                              n-

                                                                                                                               l-

                                                                                                                                -
                                                                                                                              p-

                                                                                                                                -
                                                                                                                             ov

                                                                                                                             ec
                                                                                                                              pr

                                                                                                                             ay

                                                                                                                             ug

                                                                                                                              ct

                                                                                                                             ar

                                                                                                                             pr

                                                                                                                             ay

                                                                                                                             ug

                                                                                                                             ct
                                                                                                                          A

                                                                                                                              M

                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Department of Health

    Mental health
    Consistent with impacts in other states and                                                                                       While some alcohol-related harm indicators
    territories, it is anticipated that the mental                                                                                    diminished during the early stages of the
    health impact of the pandemic will be further                                                                                     pandemic, most have returned to pre-pandemic
    realised over the coming months and years.                                                                                        levels with a recent spike that is being
    Young people are likely to experience an                                                                                          monitored.
    increase in mental health and alcohol
                                                                                                                                      A range of measures have been put in place
    and other drugs issues beyond the immediate
                                                                                                                                      to support those in need, including the
    response and recovery period.
                                                                                                                                      expansion of mental health, alcohol and other
    Between July and November 2020, 27,417                                                                                            drug services across the State, provision of
    mental health related emergency department                                                                                        community-based accommodation services,
    attendances occurred Statewide, an increase                                                                                       and funding for existing services to adjust to
    of 4.1% (1,076 attendances) compared to the                                                                                       the impacts of COVID-19.
    same period in 2019.

8   WA Impact Statement
WA Impact Statement COVID-19 - pandemic December 2020 - WA Government
At-risk people and communities
    Aboriginal people are at greater    Regional response plans            to date. Further COVID-19
    risk during a pandemic due to a     have been developed and are        transmission was contained
    range of contributing factors.      currently being tested through     in each of these cases.
    This risk has been reflected in     WA Country Health Service’s
                                                                           COVID-19 also poses additional
    clinical guidelines and planning    assurance program. Regional
                                                                           challenges for culturally and
    related to COVID-19. There are      ports have also been involved
                                                                           linguistically diverse people,
    continuing restrictions on travel   in testing outbreak plans
                                                                           especially those with lower
    to most remote Aboriginal           and the recent experiences
                                                                           levels of English and health
    communities.                        of COVID-19 positive crew in
                                                                           literacy such as refugees and
                                        the Pilbara and Midwest have
    Some people with disability                                            humanitarian entrants. The
                                        enabled assessment of local
    who have high support needs                                            health system has responded
                                        health service responses.
    or underlying chronic health                                           by making clear and easily
    conditions are also at greater      Older people and residents of      understood health messaging
    risk during a pandemic.             residential aged care facilities   available in multiple languages,
    Guidance has been developed         are among the most vulnerable      and by working with agencies
    to assist people with disability,   to COVID-19. There have            that engage directly with
    their carers and disability         been COVID-19 cases in staff       multicultural communities.
    organisations respond to a          members of two facilities,
    future outbreak.                    and two cases of residents of
                                        residential aged care facilities

                                                                    Aboriginal people
                                                                    are at a greater risk
                                                                    during a pandemic.

9   WA Impact Statement
WA Impact Statement COVID-19 - pandemic December 2020 - WA Government
Known impacts:
     Economic and infrastructure

     Economic update
     In the June quarter 2020, the      However, Western Australia’s    Corresponding to this, almost
     domestic economy contracted        control of community            87% of the jobs lost due to the
     by 6.4% – the largest decline      transmission of the virus       pandemic as of October 2020
     on record – with more than         has resulted in a faster than   have been returned, with the
     103,000 jobs lost in the three     expected recovery. Treasury’s   unemployment rate now the
     months to May 2020. This           initial modelling of a 3.1%     second lowest of all states.
     highlights the severe impact       contraction in the economy
                                                                        The 2020-21 Mid-year Review
     that the pandemic initially had    in 2020-21 has since been
                                                                        estimates general government
     on economic activity. The cost     revised to growth of 2% in
                                                                        revenue in 2020-21 to be
     of containing the virus was        the 2020-21 Mid-year Review,
                                                                        $1.4 billion higher relative
     particularly felt by households,   reflecting stronger spending
                                                                        to the 2020-21 Budget.
     with restrictions on travel        by households and businesses
     and hospitality leading to         following the easing of
     a 11.3% decline in household       COVID-19 restrictions.
     consumption in the June
     2020 quarter.

     Both consumer
     and business
     sentiment are in
     positive territory.

10   WA Impact Statement
Jobs
     The Western Australian labour market is
     now well on its way to making a recovery.
     As of November 2020, around 101,700
     (98.5%) of the initial jobs lost have been
     recovered, while total hours worked
     have returned to pre-COVID levels. The
     unemployment rate has fallen from its peak
     of 8.7% in June 2020 to 6.4% in November
     2020, the second lowest of all states.

     Internet job vacancies in the State are at
     a level not seen since mid-2013.

     Workforce availability is an emerging
     issue in some industries, including in
     regional areas.

                       Employment – monthly                                     Internet Vacancies
             '000                                                              Seasonally Adjusted
             Persons

     1,400

     1,375                                                       '000s
                                                                 22

                                                                 20
     1,350
                                                                 18

     1,325                                                       16

                                                                 14
     1,300
                                                                 12

                                                                 10
     1,275
                                                                  8

     1,250                                                        6
         Nov-16         Nov-17   Nov-18        Nov-19   Nov-20    Nov-16      Nov-17      Nov-18     Nov-19      Nov-20

     Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics                     Source: Department of Education, Skills and Employment

     Business confidence                                                     NAB business confidence
                                                                  Index
     Business confidence in Western Australia,
                                                                  40
     measured by the NAB business survey,
     has broadly been back in positive territory                  20
     since June 2020. Business and employment                         0
     conditions in Western Australia were the
                                                                 -20
     strongest of all States in trend terms as
     at November 2020.                                           -40

                                                                 -60

                                                                 -80
                                                                  Nov-17           Nov-18          Nov-19          Nov-20

                                                                 Source: National Australia Bank

11   WA Impact Statement
State Government revenue                Residential construction and      Infrastructure use
     State Government revenue                housing market                    Spend on transport services
     has been more resilient than            Following the removal of          (public transport, ridesharing
     originally estimated in the May         restrictions on home opens,       and taxis) has rebounded to
     2020 economic update, aided             established house and             pre-pandemic levels following
     by a stronger than expected             unit sales have lifted to         a large fall in April 2020.
     economic recovery, with payroll         levels last seen in 2013–14.      Whilst daily public transport
     and stamp duty revenue higher.          Furthermore, the number of        patronage has significantly
                                             weekly land sales surged to       recovered since its low of 12%
     Consumer spending                       its highest on record following   of pre-COVID-19 pandemic
                                             the introduction of State         levels in February 2020, it
     Real retail trade grew by a
                                             and Australian Government         remains below the patronage
     record 10.2% in the September
                                             construction grants in June       assumptions reflected in the
     2020 quarter and by 12.8% in
                                             2020. While still elevated        2020-21 Budget.
     year-ended terms, the strongest
                                             in early November, sales
     year ended growth since June
                                             have since moderated to
     1992. Western Australia and
                                             pre-stimulus levels.
     the Northern Territory were
     the only jurisdictions to record
     two consecutive quarters of
     growth in retail trade volumes,
     while all other jurisdictions
     recorded declines in the June
     2020 quarter.

     Consumer sentiment

     The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Survey shows
     consumer sentiment remaining in positive
     territory and above pre-pandemic levels for
     the fourth consecutive month. The sharp
     turnaround in confidence corresponds to the
     swift containment of the virus and reopening
     of the Western Australian economy, along with
     unprecedented levels of fiscal support through
     measures such as JobKeeper and the State
     Government’s $5.5 billion WA Recovery Plan.

                WA consumer sentiment
     Index
      120
       110

      100
        90

       80

        70
       60
       Dec-17         Dec-18        Dec-19       Dec-20
       Source: Westpac/Melbourne Institute

12   WA Impact Statement
Known impacts:
     Social

     Housing and homelessness                                                   Public housing waitlist
     After peaking in March 2020,                                                   End of month
     homelessness demand indicators                 16,000                        General Waitlist (LHS)         Priority Waitlist (RHS)                  3000

     are now below 2019 levels. The
                                                    15,500                                                                                                2500
     public housing waitlist is up more
                                                    15,000
     than 8% since March 2020. The                                                                                                                        2000

     rental vacancy rate is less than               14,500
                                                                                                                                                          1500
     1%, the lowest since 2007.                     14,000
                                                                                                                                                          1000
                                                    13,500

                                                                                                                                                          500
                                                    13,000

                                                    12,500                                                                                                0

                                                                     20
                                                              Ju 9
                                                                     19

                                                             Se 9
                                                                     19

                                                                     19

                                                                     19

                                                             Ja 9
                                                                     20

                                                                     20

                                                                     20

                                                                     20

                                                             Ju 0
                                                                     20

                                                                     20

                                                             Se 0
                                                                     20

                                                                     20
                                                                     1

                                                                     1

                                                                     1

                                                                     2

                                                                     2
                                                                   -
                                                                  l-

                                                                   -
                                                                 p-

                                                                   -

                                                                   -

                                                                   -

                                                                   -
                                                                n-

                                                                b-

                                                                  -

                                                                  -

                                                                  -

                                                                n-

                                                                 l-

                                                                  -

                                                                p-

                                                                  -
                                                          n

                                                               ug

                                                                ct

                                                               ov

                                                               ec

                                                               ov
                                                               ar

                                                               pr

                                                               ay

                                                               ug

                                                               ct
                                                              Ju
                                                       Ju

                                                             Fe
                                                             O

                                                             M

                                                             A
                                                             D

                                                             O
                                                             N
                                                             A

                                                             N
                                                             A
                                                             M
                                                         Source: Department of Communities

     Family and domestic violence                                  Calls to FDV helplines (inc. calls transferred in)
     The Western Australian Police Force reported                             Number during the month
     increases in family violence incidents of                                           Women's DV Calls             Men's DV Calls

     around 18% between March and December               1,000
     2020 compared to the same period last                   900
                                                             800
     year. However, calls to family and domestic             700
     violence helplines have now returned to levels          600
                                                             500
     seen in January 2020. The long-term financial           400
     and hardship impacts of the pandemic, such              300
                                                             200
     as unemployment and mental health, are
                                                             100
     likely to compound or exacerbate family and              0
                                                                   Dec    Jan      Feb    Mar    Apr       May   June July    Aug     Sep     Oct   Nov
     domestic violence during recovery.
                                                                         Source: Department of Communities

                                                                                         Youth employment
     Youth unemployment                                                  '000
                                                                                              Monthly
                                                                         people
     Youth unemployment in November
                                                                   220
     2020 was 14.7%, up from 12% before
     the pandemic and compared to an                               210
     overall unemployment rate of 6.4%. It
     compares favourably to a national youth                       200

     unemployment rate of 14.6%. Around 54%                        190
     of the initial 42,900 jobs lost by the 15 to
     24 year age cohort has been recovered.                        180

                                                                   170

                                                                   160

                                                                   150
                                                                     Nov-16           Nov-17           Nov-18          Nov-19              Nov-20

                                                                         Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

13   WA Impact Statement
Education                         Women
     Following the State of            Women were disproportionately      As the controlled interstate
     Emergency declaration on          affected by unemployment           border regime is implemented,
     15 March 2020, on-site school     and increased caring               Western Australians can
     attendance dropped to 10.6%       responsibilities in the early      reconnect with family and
     in week 9 of term 1. Week         stages of the pandemic.            friends from low risk states
     4 of term 2 (18 May 2020)         However, once restrictions         and territories.
     marked the recommencement         were lifted, industries with
                                                                          In the initial months of the
     of compulsory on-site             high concentrations of female
                                                                          pandemic, some culturally
     attendance. On-site               workers recovered well. For
                                                                          and linguistically diverse
     attendance has now returned       example, while peaking at
                                                                          communities experienced a
     to usual levels.                  9.3% in July 2020, female
                                                                          rise in COVID-19 related racism
                                       unemployment fell to 6.7% in
                                                                          and racist criminal activity.
     Child safety                      November 2020. This compares
                                                                          There has since been a decline
                                       favourably to the national
     The number of children in care                                       in reported activity.
                                       female unemployment rate
     has remained stable in recent
                                       of 7.1%.
     months. Kids Helpline has noted                                      Visa holders
     an 18.3% increase in contacts
                                       Community and social               Many visa holders (including
     across concern types for the
                                       capital                            asylum seekers, international
     three months ending October
                                                                          students and working holiday
     2020 compared to the same         Public health restrictions
                                                                          makers) are ineligible for
     period last year.                 impacted community
                                                                          Australian Government
                                       organisations and individuals,
                                                                          welfare payments and were
     Crime and justice                 especially vulnerable cohorts.
                                                                          significantly impacted by travel
                                       Most restrictions on arts,
     Overall regional and                                                 and employment restrictions.
                                       culture, community, sports
     metropolitan crime rates                                             While easing restrictions
                                       and hospitality venues and
     remain down. Adult prisoner                                          enabled some visa holders to
                                       facilities have now been lifted.
     numbers decreased from March                                         return to work or home, many
                                       This has encouraged people to
     to October 2020 and remain                                           are unable to return to their
                                       reconnect with local friends,
     below 2019 levels.                                                   home countries, access visa
                                       family and services, and is
                                                                          extensions or reunite with
                                       improving overall community
                                                                          families due to domestic and
                                       wellbeing while also providing
                                                                          international travel restrictions.
                                       much-needed revenue and jobs.

14   WA Impact Statement
Known impacts:
     Industry

     Agriculture and                     Construction                     Tourism
     primary industries                  After initially being affected   The closure of the international
     Agriculture and primary             by restrictions and investor     border has hurt tourism
     industries have played an           uncertainty, activity across     businesses that rely on these
     important role in Western           the construction industry        markets, including hotel and
     Australia’s economic recovery       – residential building,          transport operators servicing
     to date. They have had to           infrastructure and resources     the Perth CBD. However, it has
     manage workforce shortages          projects – is vibrant, being     also meant tourism spending
     and supply chain vulnerabilities.   supported by a range of WA       by Western Australians has
     The State’s relationship with       Government funded projects       been diverted away from
     key markets is vital to maintain    and measures. Industry           overseas and interstate to the
     and grow these sectors.             concerns have now turned         local market. The reopening of
                                         to managing the high demand      interstate borders is leading to
     Retail and hospitality              for labour and materials.        both an inflow and outflow of
                                                                          tourism activity for Western
     Lifting restrictions combined
                                                                          Australia but this may be
     with the Australian
                                                                          limited by
     Government’s income support
                                                                          the availability of airline
     measures have allowed the
                                                                          services and a cautious
     retail and hospitality sectors
                                                                          approach by travellers.
     to recover some of the job
     losses that occurred between
     February and May 2020.
     Longer term, the pandemic
     is expected to reshape jobs,
     businesses and consumer
     behaviour in these sectors.

     The pandemic is still
     expected to reshape
     jobs, businesses and
     consumer behaviour.

15   WA Impact Statement
International education                                                         Resources
              While no new international               $48 million with further losses        Iron ore and gold producers
              students are arriving, new               expected in 2021. Ongoing              have continued to benefit
              enrolments are coming from               venue and travel restrictions          from higher prices. Other
              students who are already in              continue to limit revenue and          mining industries and the oil
              Western Australia and have               employment.                            and gas industry are cutting
              decided to continue their                                                       costs and reconsidering future
              studies onshore. The net                 Sport and recreation                   development plans amid lower
              impact is still negative: new                                                   commodity prices, demand
                                                       About 40,000 community
              student enrolments for the                                                      uncertainty and international
                                                       sports fixtures were affected
              second half of 2020 have                                                        trade tensions.
                                                       through a significantly shorter
              declined by 43% (as of August
                                                       winter season. Contact sports
              2020). Small to medium private                                                  Defence and related
                                                       and training are now permitted;
              education providers that                                                        industries
                                                       and gyms, leisure centres and
              deliver shorter courses have
                                                       fitness studios are open with          Activity in the defence
              been the most affected as they
                                                       some requirements to remain            industries remains largely
              rely on a continual turnover of
                                                       COVID safe.                            unaffected. Infrastructure
              onshore international students
                                                                                              investment in Henderson
              to generate revenue.
                                                       Manufacturing                          to accommodate naval
                                                                                              sustainment and construction
              Culture and the arts                     With the initial concerns of
                                                                                              programs is progressing as
                                                       ensuring local manufacturing
              More than 32,000 cultural and                                                   planned. Travel restrictions
                                                       capacity of PPE having
              arts events were cancelled,                                                     have affected the ability of the
                                                       been addressed, the local
              film and television productions                                                 State’s defence and related
                                                       manufacturing industry’s
              stalled, and art, literature and                                                industries to conduct business,
                                                       focus has turned to realising
              music sales faced significant                                                   and work with Australian
                                                       longer term opportunities
              losses. On average casual                                                       Government departments and
                                                       that have arisen as a result
              employment decreased by                                                         specialised contractors.
                                                       of the COVID-19 disruption.
              75%, contract employment
                                                       For example, the WA Recovery
              decreased by 78%, and revenue
                                                       Plan provides support for the
              reduced by 72%. The estimated
                                                       local manufacture of wind
              financial impact is currently
                                                       turbines and railcars for the
                                                       iron ore industry.

                                                     Change in jobs by industry
                                                 All Industries

                                Financial & Insurance Services
                                Public Administration & Safety
                              Health Care & Social Assistance
                     Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste services
                                                   Retail Trade
                                               Wholesale trade
                  Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
                                                Other Services
                           Administrative & Support Services
                                          Education & Training
                                                Manufacturing
                                                        Mining
                                Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
                             Transport, Postal & Warehousing
                                                  Construction
                         Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services
                                    Arts & Recreation Services
                             Accommodation & Food Services
                    Information Media & Telecommunications
                                                                                                                       %
                                                                  -40      -30        -20   -10        0       10      20
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics                                 14 Mar to 18 Apr    14 Mar to 28 Nov

16            WA Impact Statement
Known impacts:
     Regions

     Employment                                                     Job advertisements by region
     Regional employment is forecast to grow,            1600

     with some regions having more jobs than             1400

     can be met through local labour supply.             1200

     Job advertisements in the regions continue          1000
                                                                                               Gascoyne and Mid West
                                                                                               Great Southern
     to grow and ABS labour force data for October        800                                  Goldfields-Esperance

     2020 shows overall employment has returned                                                Kimberley
                                                          600
                                                                                               Peel
     to pre-pandemic levels. However, issues remain                                            Pilbara
                                                          400
     for women, youth and Aboriginal communities.                                              South West
                                                          200                                  Wheatbelt
     Specifically, the lack of available childcare         0
     in the regions is re-emerging as a barrier to
     greater workforce participation. In addition, the
     Peel region has seen a 45% increase in people                                            Source: seek.com
     on Jobactive case management.

     Industry                                                              Digital connectivity
     Most regions have experienced       Western Australian business       The lack of digital connectivity
     improvements in their               supply chains have a high         in the regions hampered the
     economic conditions and             reliance on imports. This has     ability of some industries,
     business confidence is              presented both a challenge        businesses and workers
     improving. Strong gold, iron ore    and an opportunity for local      to adopt online models. In
     and agricultural activities have    businesses.                       particular, the agricultural
     shielded some regions from                                            sector continues to grapple
                                         While tourism operators are
     the worst economic impacts.                                           with connectivity issues that
                                         reporting very strong visitor
     Other regions, more reliant on                                        inhibit the productivity and
                                         numbers, there is a concern
     the oil and gas sectors or on                                         technological enhancements
                                         this may exacerbate labour
     service based industries, have                                        needed to compete in global
                                         shortages in the tourism sector
     been more severely impacted.                                          markets.
                                         which may translate into
     Industries reliant on seasonal
                                         negative visitor experiences.
     and working holiday labour
     continue to find it difficult to
     attract workers, with efforts
     to increase local labour having
     mixed results across the State.

                                                                           Regional
                                                                           employment is
                                                                           forecast to grow.

17   WA Impact Statement
Remote Aboriginal                Social impacts                     Training and development
     communities                      With an acute lack of housing      The recovery is reshaping
     Several remote Aboriginal        stock and high rental prices in    businesses and presenting
     communities remain closed        many regions, the commitment       new opportunities. This is
     or only partially open to        to refurbishing and building new   creating challenges for the
     visitors. Ongoing cooperation    social housing is assisting the    regional workforce as well as
     and collaboration between        homeless and those waiting for     opportunities to maximise
     Government, Aboriginal leaders   social housing.                    employment through training
     and community groups are                                            vulnerable sections of regional
                                      While arts, cultural, sports and
     needed to ensure the safety                                         communities.
                                      recreational organisations are
     and wellbeing of members of
                                      largely recovering and returning
     these communities.
                                      to normal activities, social
                                      vulnerability and a high demand
                                      for social services remain.

18   WA Impact Statement
You can also read