Weather and climate resilience: a short-term and long-term perspective for European aviation - Rachel Burbidge and Christian Faber, EUROCONTROL ...
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Weather and climate resilience: a
short-term and long-term perspective
for European aviation
Rachel Burbidge and Christian Faber, EUROCONTROL
MOWE-IT Regional Conference, Berlin, 09 September 2014
CG13 Climate Change Risk and Resilience Task
Objectives:
Is climate change a risk for
European aviation?
Do we need to take action?
What, when, where and whom?
2
Key risks by impact area
Impact Area
Climate Impact En-route airport operations airport infrastruture
disruption to operations e.g. drainage system capacity
airfield flooding, ground inundation of underground infrastructure e.g.
subsidence, reduction in airport electrical
throughput inundation of ground surface access
Precipitation change
Changes in performance / noise heat damage to airport surface (runway, taxiway)
impact increased heating and cooling requirements
Temperature change
Impact on en-route capacity due
to loss of ground capacity loss of airport capacity loss of airport infrastructure
Sea-level rise
convective weather: disruption
convective weather: disruption to operations
to operations, route extensions local wind patterns: disruption to damage to infrastructure
jet stream: increase in en-route operations, changes to
turbulence distribution of noise impact
Wind changes
disruption to operations, route
extensions disruption to operations damage to infrastructure
Extreme events
Source: based on ACI-EUROPE, AEN, DGAC, EUROCONTROL, LHR, MMU, NATS (2014, forthcoming)
3
Growth and adaptation: a double challenge Projected changes in annual near-surface Projected changes in annual precipitation temperature 2021-2050 (relative 1961-1990 mean) 2021-2050 (relative 1961-1990 mean) Traffic Growth: 2012-2035 by State 4 4
So, are we prepared?
Two-stage stakeholder consultation:
Survey
Stage Objectives:
1: Survey
Operational stakeholders: ANSPs, airport
What does the European aviation sector think?
operators, aircraft operators, industry
associations, CAAs
Might climate change affect its business and operations?
Should we consider taking measures to adapt?
What actions
Stage and initiatives are planned or underway?
2: Workshop
Operational stakeholders, decision-makers,
research community
5 5
Survey Parameters
1st October to 21 November 2012
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
Number
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
ANSP Airport operator Aircraft CAA Industry ANSP and
Operator Association Airport Operator
Respondents
35% response rate
All climate zones covered
6 6
Does your organisation.....
It is not the task of my organisation
Risk/opportunity not yet assessed
Not yet on the long-term agenda. N = 33
Do not expect climate change to cause
us any significant impacts
Risk/Opportunity not yet assessed N = 29
Too early
Do not have information
Do not have financial resources N = 25
Not aware of need
7 7
Barriers to adaptation
“Obstacles that can be overcome with concerted effort, creative management,
change of thinking, prioritization, and related shifts in resources, land uses,
institutions, etc.” Moser and Ekstrom 2010, p.22026
8
Challenge: Climate Resilence
Solutions: integrate resilience to climate change as routine part of
operational and business planning
Identify risks and vulnerabilities (regional,network, local)
Identification/implementation of local and network
resilience measures
Build resilience into current infrastructure and operations
planning.
No-regrets measures (e.g. SESAR OIs)
Cost-effective measures (e.g. training)
Increased collaboration with MET (advanced forecasting
techniques)
Early action is cost-effective
9
London Heathrow Climate Adaptation Plan Study followed 6 steps 1. Model future climate 2. Best practice review 3. Gathering evidence base 4. Risk assessment and adaptation response 5. Report 6. Implement and assure delivery
Example Results
Confidence Risk Grading (no adaptation)
(climate A E
Action Defines actions that are known and required now to mitigate identified short-term climate related risks
Risk ID Risk Climate Variable R Threshold Excessive and/or longer-term risks if the solution requires action now
Prepare Defines tasks to improve understanding of the cause or solution to a significant short or medium term
Risks and Control Measures Significant Optimal projections and Por O
risk. Tasks are therefore predominately research based
Watching Brief Watching brief to be maintained in the short term on the latest climate science developments,
A
Moderate Adequate
consequences)
W A
Short Term
and the situation on the ground. Medium / Long (2020
G I
Low Inadequate
Confidence
Risk Grading (no adpatation) Existing Control Measures (to 2020) to 2050s)
Business Unit Director/s
Risk ID Risk Climate Variable Threshold (climate projections and Adaptation Response Needed
owners Responsible
or consequences)
Aviation fuel flash
Short Term Medium / Long (2020
(to 2020) to 2050s) Summary Adequacy
AIRSIDE
1
Flashpoint of aviation fuel
Flashpoint of aviation fuel exceeded on hot days -
potential fire hazard.
Temp
Av gas flash point is 38°C. Temperatures during
the summer of 2003 peaked at 37.5C
H
point is 38°C.
A R Spill reporting and defined clean up procedures. A P
Prepare: Research into spill clean up options currently used at
airports in warmer climates to commence to develop policies robust
to air temperatures exceeding 38°C.
Airside Airside Director
2
1
weather.
exceeded on hot days -
Increased incidence of fuel venting from aircraft in warm
Temp Av gas flash point is 38°C.
Temp H
Temperatures during
A A Spill reporting, clean up procedures, PCS.
H O P
A
Prepare: Research into options currently used at airports in
warmer climates for spill reporting and clean up procedures.
Airside
R Airside Director
Onsite fire brigade, fire water supply and fire mains,
Prepare: Ensure that the planned changes and development of the
3
potential fire hazard.
Increased fire risk due to hotter temperatures combined
with increased lightning and drought potential.
Temp Uncertain M
the summer of 2003
G A
regular drills, smoke and fire detection systems,
vegetation management plans, PATS testing of
electrical equipment.
O P airport's fire main considers and addresses the potential for
increased fire risk resulting from climate change.
Airside Airside Director
peaked at 37.5C
Change in distribution of pests and wildlife species.
PPE, first aid for outdoor workers. Veterinary service,
4 Potential changes to bird migration patterns and bird strike Temp Uncertain L G G
bird management controls.
O W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director
risk.
Potential to change load factors, ATM rates, if
Reduced lift for departing aircraft due to 'thin air' and Aircrfat operate in multiple temp zones, unlikely
5
reduced engine efficiency in very hot weather.
Temp
to be breached
H G G needed. Existing noise footprint monitoring and E W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director
mitigation tools.
Grooved runway, drainage system, ATC procedures
Torrential rain creates hazardous conditions for i.e. increased separation distances, runway safety
6 vehicles and planes i.e. airside and landside road Precip. See Strategic Flood Risk Assesment H G A zones, operational guidance for pilots/airside staff, O W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director
vehicles, and taxiing and landing aircraft. warning signs on motorway network to announce
hazardous conditions.
Low Visibility Procedures when the Runway
LVPs, operational guidance for pilots and airside
Seasonal changes to fog related disruption (increase in Visual Range (RVR) is < 600m and/or cloud
7
winter months, decrease for remainder of year).
Fog
ceiling is < 200 ft. Projections do not suggest
L G G vehicles, warning signs on nearby motorway network E W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director
to alert drivers to hazardous conditions.
any critical thresholds would be crossed
High wind procedures and cross wind
Increased risk of schedule interruption from stormy ATC procedures i.e. separation distances,
8
conditions.
Storms procedures enacted at defined criteria L G A
contingency plans for disruption.
O W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director
(dependent on aircraft type).
Wing tip vortex is particularly problematic for
Increased longevity of wing tip vortex effect due to Reparation programme to repair affected roofs, ATC
9
general becalming of surface wind speeds.
Wind small planes taking off in quick succession after L G G
procedures i.e. increased separation distances.
E W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director
large aircraft.
All commercial aircraft are tested to
Change to prevailing wind direction affects runway Wind speed/ a"demonstrated" maximum crosswind as part of Not able to be assessed due to lack of projection
10
utilisation and schedules. direction their certification. Large aircraft are better able to
L
data. W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director
handle cross winds than light aircraft.
All commercial aircraft are tested for resilience
11
Disruption to airfield operations from lightning i.e.
Lighting
to lightning strike as part of their certification.
Planes can withstand lightning strike in the air
L
Adaptation Response Needed
G A
Suspension of refuelling, changes to stack locations
O W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director
refuelling suspension, changes to flight routing. but during take off and landing instrument loss and departure routes, diversions.
would be critical hence the diversion of routes
and stacks.
Prepare: Research into spill clean up options currently
used at airports in warmer climates to commence to
P
develop policies robust to air temperatures exceeding
38°C.What is EUROCONTROL doing? NM Survey of Weather Risk Developing ways to Alert the Network to Severe weather. Anticipation of severe weather provides the time to develop a managed response
Average Daily traffic
14Delay causes
15Weather impact on ATFM delay
16Average daily ATFM delay
17Delay locations
18Reasons for Airport Delay
19Weather tools today
20The Network WX Resilience Roadmap
Each good management starts with anticipation…
PRE-TACTICAL ANTICIPATION TACTICAL MANAGEMENT
SCOPE: WX RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT
3d Information
• Nat Hazards Translation: Impact Decision Making
• WX Forecast
• Thresholds Assessment
• WX Nowcast • Options
• Constraints • Actual Demand • Simulation
• Capacity Risks • Actual Resources • Execution
• Configurations • Monitoring
70% likelihood High Risk of Current RWY Can be
for 45 knots Capacity configuration accommodated
wind at 3000ft Reduction by and resources without
at EDDF 20% – 5% reduction regulation
21The Architecture of the tool
EUROCONTROL NM AND OTHER
STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTATION
INTERFACE FOR
IMPACT NOP INTEGRATION
Print
Natural MODELS Valid Time 10-Oct 2013 16Z
Last updated 10-Oct 2013 12Z
Next update 10-Oct 2013 18Z
Medium
Hazards Risk
High Risk
Information EGLL
LFPG
TEXT OUTPUTS
RISK
PROBABILITY VOLCANIC ASH
ASSESSMENT HAZARD VALID 052114
MODELS
Weather MODELS ------------
RISK HIGH
Forecast
STAND ALONE
HMI DISPLAY
Print
STAND ALONE HMI
Valid Time 10-Oct 2013 16Z
Last updated 10-Oct 2013 12Z
Next update 10-Oct 2013 18Z
Medium
Risk
High Risk
EGLL
LFPG
Sector1
Hazard: Convection
Risk Score: 0.83
Risk Level: High
22Capacity Reduction
Tables for each hazard and each airspace resource
Performance reduction for each resource
Visibility thresholds
Capacity Reduction: Generic Airport
Aeronautical Visibility (m)
ICAO Visibility
Cal IIIC Cat IIIB Cat IIIA Cat II condition 2* IMC VMC
(RVRNumerical forecast model
6 hours refresh rate, starting at 0100 Z
48 hours (at least) look-ahead horizon
Hourly temporal resolution
Top 5 Safety Priorities 24Weather Resilience: Table view
25Weather Resilience: Map View
26Weather Resilience: Map & Table
2718 months later…
Some stakeholders carrying out
risk assessments. But others are
not yet ready to move….
Uncertainties remain: changes
in demand; noise distribution;
quantification of impacts.
What do we need? Metrics,
guidance, tool kit?
28Conclusions
• Diverse range of potential climate impacts identified
• Many organisations are not yet considering this risk
• Local and network resilience is required
• Build awareness/support to address barriers to action
• Identify no-regrets and cost-effective measures
• EUROCONTROL NM: already building weather resilience
• Early action is the key to cost-effective resilience
Thank you for your attention
Questions?
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